13
Apr
Wrap – Week Ended 4/9/13
Comments will be in the Monday post.
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E&P Stocks…Seeing reason for caution here with E&P stocks in general. XOP is turning lower with larger traders showing sharp selling last week. A list of 63 E&P Stocks that I track for cumulative volume trends also shows the last bounce was on weak volume that has now turned over. (Next comment window down). On the profile chart XOP has returned to the pivot point for the past quarter(58). Failure to find equilibrium here suggests testing lower to 56.
April 14th, 2013 at 7:48 amhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/14/Stock_Master390_1304140530.png
E&P stocks cumulative volume trend
April 14th, 2013 at 7:49 amhttp://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/XOP412_zps0b878beb.png
E&P Weekly Cumulative Volume
April 14th, 2013 at 8:05 amhttp://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/XOPWeekly_zps10bf9829.png
Natural Gas Stocks ..Suggests to me that in the short term that volume does not support higher prices in general here. Large trader volume is a mixed picture with the leading stocks RRC/COG/REXX seeing some selling/PT but some larger trader volume is still moving into laggards ECA, CRK.
April 14th, 2013 at 8:52 amDaily Cumulative Volume
http://s1223.photobucket.com/user/zorgnak/media/NGDaily_zps50e5d28a.png.html
Weekly Cumulative Volume
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/NGWeekly_zps4b494203.png
April 14th, 2013 at 9:12 amS&P Futures Long Term
Long term trend intact above 1548.50 CHVN. Large trader volume continues to lead higher, buying on weakness. Small trader volume tailing off.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/14/ES_Master_1304140658.png
S&P Futures Short Term
Market range expansion to new highs, attempting to consolidate at the 1582 volume pivot. Little market structure in either direction. Edgeless short term.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/14/Es_Composite_2_1304140703.png
ATW Larger traders bought support(49) Friday afternoon.
April 14th, 2013 at 9:49 amhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/14/Stock_Master_Weekly_1304140748.png
Zorg: Based on your comments you would expect the S&P to continue to outperform the XOP?
April 14th, 2013 at 11:13 am#7 Tom….Looks like that to me at the moment. Note that big cap XLE paused at the quarterly volume pivot at 78 on Friday(far left hand magenta profile). It's at a major equilibrium level. Large traders voted with their feet afternoon 4/11 and AM 4/12. I'm wary of a break of 77 which would leave all of March and 85% of Feb trading volume underwater. Might have just been a knee jerk sell off with crude but it has me wary of buying energy on a dip here until the larger traders stop selling and begin to buy again.
April 14th, 2013 at 12:49 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/14/Stock_Master_65_1304141003.png
XOP The corresponding move in XOP wasn't as sharply sold but is now just above it's quarterly volume pivot at 58 with 56 as downside target if it fails to hold. Again, not buying the dip here but waiting to see how these volume pivots are treated. Some important individual names either at or nearing support.
CLR(80), OAS(35), EOG.(24&21). CLR and OAS found some buyers at support. Watching to see if that supporting volume expands. EOG ,large traders stopped selling but have not started buying yet. Small traders are still selling. Watching. I did buy back a smidge of OAS and CLR on Friday.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/14/Stock_Master390_1304141025.png
8 Zorg – Thanks. Hope the bad back hasn't kept you from the tennis courts.
April 14th, 2013 at 1:29 pm#9…re tennis..nope I'm back at it full blast. Well, half blast…..
April 14th, 2013 at 2:54 pmCLR got down to $77 handle on Friday? was away and didn't have access, but certainly would have pulled off a trade there. this was the drop i was waiting for. don't think there's much risk at this level.
April 14th, 2013 at 5:38 pmZorg…I've been of the opinion that energy names (except refiners) have not seen the kind of upward move other sectors have, this phenomenon has been true for some time now. at the moment it seems that most of the money is following hot stocks and good charts. don't think energy is singular in this respect. most of the S&P move have been a few names and money managers seem to have been piling into the same stocks.
one can argue several theories regarding this phenomenon. the one that seems most convincing to me, is that the market is finding leadership and feels most comfortable with a handful of names right now which is fueling the indexes rise. over time the confidence will disperse into more and more names. in the interim the non leadership names will see more volatility, which is what i believe we are seeing now.
#11 Thanks for your thoughts…
April 14th, 2013 at 6:09 pmApril 14th, 2013 at 8:09 pm
re: 12
April 14th, 2013 at 8:50 pmin the near term, the combination of trading and maintaining a basket of names that seem cheap on a valuation basis is working best. i have utilized your unique charts and believe they have provided me with a keen ability to pull off quality short term trades, so i say if something is working for you, don't change your strategy.
when i mentioned the leadership names in the prior post, i want to clarify that i wasn't referring to energy leaders, but rather a host of names in various industries. the ones that immediately come to mind are MA, V, GOOG, PCLN, AMZN, EBAY, LNKD, HD, COST, MCD, WMT, JNJ, and a slew of healthcare and biotech names which have really outperformed many other sectors.
just looking at BIIB and CELG its easy to understand how Nasdaq has gotten to these highs without a clear participation from technology companies (for the most part).
April 14th, 2013 at 8:54 pmZorg – as per your question re FSLR on Friday, I've been doing some follow up reading, will have more to say later this week but I'm still in the ignore camp on it and the group at this point Note the guidance above Street was due to a change in the way they are recognizing revenue, which pulled earnings out of 2014 and into 2013. 2014 is now lower. Then note the GW guidance and lower and EPS being outpaced by it. Margins headed lower. I think this rally was simply a short squeeze. More to say later in the week.
April 14th, 2013 at 10:11 pmCommodities getting spanked overnight on the lower-than-estimated China GDP numbers released this weekend. WTIC under $90. Asian equity markets selling off. Could be a tough day tomorrow.
April 14th, 2013 at 10:53 pm