02
Mar

Wrap – Week Ended 3/1/13

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Choppy week last week for the broad market, commodities and our groups. We'll have an extra long version of The Week That Was section in the Monday post with the last 4Q12 earnings season, and comments on the natural gas macro.  If you missed yesterday's piece, which included the Supply and Demand slide shows click here.  Break downs on the KOG and NOG quarters were included in that post and we added to our NOG position during their conference call. See the comments section below the post for thoughts on that overly discounted name.

We had two pieces out on Seeking Alpha last week:

A pre call note on the continued strong progress of Bakken Group leader OAS can be found here.

And an update piece on tiny Miss lime player Osage Exploration can be found here.

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10 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 3/1/13”

  1. 1
    crysball Says:

    Keystone  Pipeline   Signal………..approval coming?
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-01/keystone-xl-environmental-report-said-to-be-issued-today-by-u-s-.html

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    re 1 – thanks, stuff I saw was a bit of a mixed message out of State but not an outright objection. 

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    NRGY – note products weakened more than WTI last week. Will have some refining comments late in the week. 

  4. 4
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 3:  Noted.  Looking forward to your comments.  Found an interesting factoid:  due to the RVP spec changing in the hotter, summer months, compared to the colder, winter months–more butane is added in the winter and less in the summer.  As the warmer weather approaches gasoline is less 'diluted' with butane.  This occurs at the same time with increased gasoline demand due to summer driving patterns.  The result is that gasoline prices typically increase due to these 'seasonal' factors.  If WTI prices stay down, or even drop further, while the gasoline prices climb the refiners will continue to do well.  Much depends on global demand for gasoline and diesel this spring/summer season.  The question is whether or not the recent decrease in the 'crack' spreads are temporary or will they continue to drop.  Some drop was inevitable due to the huge increase since the beginning of the year.  

  5. 5
    crysball Says:

    Keystone  XL…………….the  whining  has  already  begun   from  the environmentalists:
    http://news.yahoo.com/op-ed-state-department-wrong-keystone-xl-pipeline-180235788.html
    What  they  don't  seem  to  understand  is  that   Oil Sands  production  will  increase,  whether  or  not  Keystone  XL  is  built (i.e.  Canada  will  export  to  Asia  with  or  without  it),   so  not building  the Keystone  XL  will  not  have  significant  impact  on  Oil  Sands  proudction  in  the long term.     The  arguement  environmentalists  have   put  forth  is   that  by  not  building  it this  'DIRTY  OIL'   will  not  be  produced…………a  false  arguement.
    By building  it  our  nation  keeps  an  accessible  supply  of   oil  available,  and  lest  we  forget  creates  capital  investment  and  jobsin North America.

  6. 6
    crysball Says:

    Re 4………Not to be  forgotten…………Keystone  XL   also  provides  a  market  for  the  increasing  surplus  of  US NGL's  and  consdensate  needed   to  blend  out  the  Oil  Sands  Heavy………and  creates  more  jobs  and  capital  investment  to  build  & operate  the  condenstate   piplelines   to   export  it  to  Canada.

  7. 7
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 5:  The environmentalists also don't understand that piping oil sands production to US refiners is more environmentally friendly than piping it to the west coast, then shipping it to Asia to be refined by refiners operating under less restrictive pollution policies.  But they are not thinking about that 'cost' to the environment because they think they can prevent the oil from even being produced in the first place.  They think if they block the pipelines to the gulf and the west coast they will block production because there is no way to get it to market.  Hello railroads!  And the rails are less environmentally friendly than pipelines.  I would say the environmentalists against the XL pipeline are in a bit of a pickle.  It would not be surprising to a cynic if they were being funded by the railroad firms, who stand to gain by not having pipelines 🙂

  8. 8
    skimo Says:

    Headline: 
    APNewsBreak: NY's Cuomo held off approval of test fracking after talks with RFK Jr. on health
    Apparently Cuomo doesn't realize that the Kennedy dynasty's expertise is not in fracking, but a similar sounding word.

  9. 9
    elduque Says:

    re 8- not sure what the country would be like if each side didn't keep pandering to their under-informed, under intelligent electorate group!!!

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P Short Term Areas of Interest 3/3 7pm ES 1514. Notes/Thoughts
    Notes…. Market caught in wide congestion area from 1492 to 1520 with excess  quickly rejected. Demand volume is weakening on the daily and intraday time frames, extended and rolling over on the weekly. Breadth trend and POMO supportive of bounces on dips. POMO supportive through all of March.  
     
    Thoughts …. Looks edgeless/unreadable to my eye at the moment. Watch reactions at 1510 and 1519 as nearest areas of interest. Small hedge and no trade longs. Better odds with a pullback to 10 day range lows. Maybe it will be clearer tomorrow morning.
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone-VPOC=Daily Most Accepted Price
    1521      End of supply/Little market structure above
    1513.50 Minor CHVN/Short term volume pivot
    1510.50 Minor CLVN/Support
    1496.25 CHVN/Volume Pivot/Low volume area below 1492
    S&P Futures
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/03/03/Es_Composite_2_1303031606.png

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