Wednesday Morning – Presentation Wraps and More

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market looks bored with no data other than earnings to support recent rally. This too shall pass. Energy land continues to outperform on a relative basis and many stories that slept through either the last quarter or the entirety of 2012 are waking up to being at new recent to 52 week highs for E&Ps. Today's post contains highlights from a number of our names that spoke at two conferences yesterday. Not revolutionary, but in most cases just continued evolutionary type comments.  Yesterday was also a busy day on the trading front largely from a profit taking standpoint (see Holdings Watch below). 

Ecodata Watch:

  • None today. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Presentation wraps, TPLM
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to

Holdings Watch:

ZMT (Zman Medium Term portfolio):

  • No trades yesterday.

ZLT - C 

  • Yesterday’s Trades:

    • MMR - Sold the MMR shares out of both accounts, at $15.80, down 11%. This account may rebuy the royalty trust in time but its too big a chunk of the portfolio here to put in something with that much uncertainty. 
    • KOG - We added (75) shares to each portfolio to establish KOG as a new core position here. 

Table on positions tab will be updated tonight. 

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • Yesterday’s Trades: 

    • ZLT - Sold 2 of the MMR trading positions taken in September and November, for an average of $15.82, up 19% and 89% respectively. Plan to hold the core and remaining trading position for the cash take out and Ultra Deep Royalty Trust units. 

    • BCEI - Sold 2 of the trading positions taken last March, for $31.74, up 68% to my average cost  of $18.90 for those shares. I continue to hold trading positions taken last February and the full core position built last January and am unlikely to take further profits at this time.  We continue to hold the name as a full sized position in the ZLT C as well have recently sold 1/3 of our position that had grown too large there. See today's post for additional details which in a nutshell = full steam ahead. Given the rally in the shares I would not be surprised to see an offering at some point in 1H13, either a terming out of the revolver or an equity deal to clean out the revolver and fund the capex gap for 2013. 

    • KOG - Added another trading position at $9.60, no change in recent thinking here, building on the trading position added in November and December. Thinking they get more recognition as they go from being expensive on acreage to cheap on acreage in the group on a production adjusted basis over the course of 2013.

    • TPLM - Added a trading position at $6.04 after a broker comment knocked the name down 5+%. The comment refers to an apparently poor IP of a well to the north of TPLM Montana Station Prospect. 1) We don't know if the result is bad or just a  piece of data taken out of context as the well has not been press released and the data comes from a state site that provides no backstory on the well. The operator of the well is SWN and they had previously said they are encouraged by what they have seen in the well. 2) Furthermore, TPLM is focused on Willaims and McKenzie Counties, ND. Not Montana. TPLM holds acreage in Montana but they are not drilling wells there this year. The idea that one well to the north of their main prospect area in an area that they are not focusing on for at least the next year is not to put too fine a point on it, silly and an irresponsible comment on the part of the analyst. The tiny blurb was picked up by Bloomberg and TPLM sold off in knee jerk fashion. 

      The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil closed essentially unchanged for WTI at $93.15 yesterday, ignoring another weak day in the equity markets.  After the close, the API released a bearish looking report showing across the board inventory builds but this was likely the secondary effect, at least on the product side, of the prior week's big draw down of crude stocks to avoid inventory taxes.  (see below for the large product builds).  Cushing stocks continue to slowly build in advance of greater takeaway capacity from the area and this should start to reverse out later this month (it always takes longer than you'd think).   Demand has been paltry but we expect a near term pickup in gasoline consumption (seasonal) and for colder weather to inspire better heating oil demand as evidenced by distillate numbers either this week or next. This morning crude is trading flat. 

  • STEO Watch: EIA released its first short term energy outlook for 2013 yesterday.  Key points:

    • Global demand: up 0.9 mm bopd in 2013 (same as last month) and reaching a record 90.1 mm bopd and issuing a first estimate for 2014 of 91.5 mm bopd (representing a nice acceleration. 
    • Domestic production: Sees 2013 up 0.9 MMBopd over 2012 (which rose 0.8 mm bopd)

Natural gas fell $0.05 (1.5%) to close the day at $3.22 yesterday retreating after digesting the EIA data from the prior day. Well, at least the supply side of the equation which the market sees as another unwelcome build in natural gas production. I saw no mention of the demand side of the equation from the press.  We wanted to add a couple of graphs to the 2013 gas price piece so look for that update in tomorrow's post. This morning gas is trading off another 5 cents. 

  • STEO Watch: EIA's look at the natural gas macro ... this will blow with the wind as the year progresses but here's where they are now:
    • Supply:
      • 2012 = 69.2 Bcfgpd
      • 2013 = 69.8 Bcfgpd
      • 2014 = 69.5 Bcfgpd
    • Demand:
      • 2013 /2014 = 69.7 and 69.4 Bcfgpd respectively which doesn't make a lot sense given EIA's view of sub $4 pricing in 2013 and 2014 ($3.74 in 2013 which is in line with my read on the year and $3.90 for 2014). These numbers will move around quite a bit as the year progresses as well. 


Early Read On Natural Gas Storage:

Street is at 190 BCF for tomorrow’s report.  Anywhere close to this number means we dip back out of record storage levels. 

  • Last Week: -135 Bcf
  • Last Year: -76 Bcf
  • 5 Year Average: -117 Bcf
  • 10 year Hi: -158 Bcf
  • 10 year Low: -47 Bcf

Oil Inventory Preview

API Watch: Near term bearish. 

  • Crude: Up 2.4 with Cushing up another 0.3 mm bopd. Cushing levels should begin to ease later this month. 
  • Gasoline: Up 7.9 mm barrels
  • Distillates: Up 5.9 mm barrels

Stuff We Care About Today

BMO and GS Presentation Notes

BCEI Thoughts

  • Niobrara - history of improving results with each well as they hone stage spacing, cleanout regimen etc ------. 
  • Codell - oil mix high (a little over 80%, IP lower than expected but oil mix still high. This well was on the western side and they think Codell horizontals will work on the about 15,000 of their Wattenberg area acres, or about 43% of their total position. Will do another 4 wells this year. Think the Codell will go all horizontal after those 4 wells. 
  • Cotton Valley (AR) processing issue seen in 2Q and 3Q (equipment malfunction) now fixed. Also have back up equipment in place if it recurs. --
  • Balance Sheet:

    • Recall from the other day. No talk about financing needs for this year in the discussion. The revolver will obviously be expanded based on this year's growth in reserves. I'd guess they term out the revolver in another quarter or two. I'd welcome an equity deal here too though. 
  • Nutshell: Everything remains on track or is improving over prior thinking. Our sense is that management will look to do a deal in the first half of 2013, either a an equity deal to clean up the revolver and fill the funding gap vs this year's capex or they will wait for their re-determination in April, when the bank line will go up and will then either do an equity deal or term out the debt. Either approach would be acceptable to me and I do not abhor an equity deal here as it would help with liquidity.  As noted, we have taken more of the trading shares off the table as they were up nearly 70% in about 9 months and our thought would be that any significant market pull back will inspire profit taking as would the announcement of an equity deal giving us the opportunity to buy those shares back from a lower level. 


HK Wrap Thoughts

  • Lots of news just around the corner:
    • 10 Bakken wells either being completed or waiting on completion. Look for HK to say they have improved the well design already over what they acquired
    • Woodbine results are showing good 30 days rates and more modest than expected declines through the first 90 day period. Look for them to get more specific in an operation update coming to a press release soon. 
    • Utica - first results in March or April
  • Production guidance remains the same as expected with volumes expected to 80% oil and 5% NGLs. 
  • Nutshell: The Street is going to want to see production volumes really begin to pile up in 1Q and 2Q13. The story has been refined to only talk about the top 3 plays with little mention to the already disclosed new ventures efforts or the remaining to be disclosed stealth plays and in my book that's a good idea. Focus. Focus.Focus. Do what you do best which is the under promise and over deliver game and then from time to time drop a new ventures press release on the market and say "hey, look at this shiny new baubble". I continue to hold the name in the ZLT and ZMT. 

SWN Wrap Thoughts

  • Discussed the shift in focus from Fayetteville Shale to their slightly higher return at current prices (better realizations and lower cost) Marcellus
  • Marcellus was 220 MMcfgpd in 3Q12, Over 300 MMcfgpd at the end of 2012 as processing capacity caught up with their drilling program and is expected to be at 500 MMcfgpd by the end of 2013 and at 700 MMcfgpd by the end of 2014.
  • On new ventures:

    • Brown Dense:

      • 3 wells on production including the recently completed with their best practices yet #6 well.
      • Look for an update on the #6 well in February
    • Colorado and Montana - no update.
  • Nutshell: Same old same old. Decent grower in the 11 to 13% range but all natural gas. Still one of the lowest cost names out there and that only gets a bit better each year. Balance sheet is in great shape. On the new ventures and in typical SWN style they said they are most encouraged by the Brown Dense of all their new venture plays at the moment but only because they are furthest along here and also in their typical style, instead of stressing the improvement in well results from start to finish so far in the play they said they put the odds of project sanction there at 50/50. I hold the name as a play on improving gas market fundamentals with upside provided by the potential their new ventures plays could turn into as they are all focused on crude but aren't stressing the balance sheet as they company looks to broaden its exposure to liquids. 


REXX Wrap - Just the Utica Stuff

  • Utica going forward:
    • Brace well look for 90 and 120 day rates on 4Q call
    • Look for production from the next 2 Warrior wells in early April
    • 11 wells to drill and complete in 2013
    • Not ready to comment on EUR on the Brace well yet
    • First well was $9 mm, thinking they can get it down to low $8s to high $7s mm
    • Acreage:
      • Expansion of acreage in Carroll County OH would be difficult as CHK pretty much owns the county.
      • In Warrior South its a little but not a lot better. There are some trading opportunities but its mostly leased up.  

PVA Wrap 

  • Expect to be FCF neutral by 2015
  • Sounds like no more equity deals to 2015 but that's not a promise
  • Seeing a lot of interest for a JV partner in Lavaca County
  • Nothing new on the operations update. 

Other Stuff:

TPLM Trading Action Thoughts: Yesterday a Canadian brokerage wrote a piece that basically said SWN had a poor IP at its first Montana Bakken test and that that perhaps boded poorly for TPLM's Station prospect.  To me that's irresponsible sabotage type commentary and while I addressed it briefly in comments and in a trade with the language contained above in the Holdings Watch I thought a few graphs and comments regarding the "hit" were in order.   If you can't see the right edge of the graphic try clicking on it to open it in a separate window. 



Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • TBA in comments. 

138 Responses to “Wednesday Morning – Presentation Wraps and More”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    SYRG on the tape, I don't own it, but will be on the 12 pm EST call. 

  2. 2
    milepost_43 Says:

    HK..$400M add-on notes…any real negatives with this PR?…thanks

  3. 3
    elduque Says:

    Good Morning:
    BDI moving up a little +9 to 743
    Brent/WTI at 18.8
    TYX at 3.07

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Short Term Areas of Interest 1/10 8:50 AM  ES 1455. Notes/Thoughts
    Notes…. Mkt trading in a 5 day balance rejecting  the CHVN at 1449-46 on Tuesday. 1456 is the key volume pivot within the balance area. Large price/volume gap below the 1444.50 CLVN with the Mini CHVN at 1439.50 as the key intermediate volume pivot. A break below 1439.50 has room to move back to 1428 and previous price range. Little market structure above. Watch 1456 as an early tell for further expansion higher.  Demand volume is positive in all time frames. Breadth is positive but overbought. Currencies are supportive reverting. Risk sectors leading. POMO supportive through the end of January.
    Thoughts …..Market building for a move.  Risk in either direction but my bias is for another upside attempt as long as the market rejects the CHVN at 1446-49 as too low.  1456 is the pivot for another upside move.  If the CHVN is rejected as too high 1444.50 and 1439.50 are the key levels to watch for an upside reversal back to the CHVN
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone-VPOC=Daily Most Accepted Price
    1460      Minor CLVN and volume tail for current balance area
    1456       Volume pivot for current balance area
    1446-49 CHVN
    1444.50 CLVN-Major Gap Below
    1439.50 Mini CHVN
    1428  CLVN
    S&P Futures

  5. 5
    ram Says:

    Zman, nice piece on TPLM. 

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    re 2 – none in my view, pretty standard stuff. Taking out the revolver and replacing it with senior debt

    re 3 – good morning and thanks

    Thanks for the levels Zorg.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 5 – fun with maps and data. I could add a lot more wells around there but none are blockbuster. The BEXP Rogney well, which was the first big hooray over Montana, is a couple of townships to the south, good early rates then not so great. And you can't compare these rates to ND rates, at least not to what we normally look at, as you are coming up out of the basin on its west side and you have less depth and less pressure and also somewhat lower costs. But jury is still out of here. WLL and CLR have made a pretty good push around this area, nothing to really brag about yet. Anyway, just thought I'd show that ITG was picking on TPLM a bit unfairly, if they had wanted to do a well study in the area with closer wells they could have easily gone for those I picked or dozens more and come up with a "ho hum" type of commentary and I would not have said boo about it. It just seemed obvious they were trying to sabotage the stock and its small size and lessor household nameness allowed them to get away with, even though TPLM is treating the leasehold like moose pasture at present.   

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Made today's post free if you have anyone who might like the site or if they want to see the TPLM comments. 

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    I have to run to a meeting, back 20 minutes after the open. 

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    Morning Boss

  11. 11
    elduque Says:

    Re TPLM- thanks for research. makes it easier to add to my position. your site is more than worth what I pay for it. 
    Interesting comment ECA at the BMO conference. In talking about developing oil plays. Said that they know that the oil is there, it is more an engineering problem in how to get it out economically. 
    Re TMS and GDP. GDP was basically using the same language when they said it was all about the drill time. That is, it costs them $100,000 a day to drill. They were encouraged by how fast EOG drilled their well in the TMS. 
    Said that they expected to unlock the play over the next 6 mos. with the number of wells being drilled. 

  12. 12
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Thanks for the TPLM comments. I was thinking about what you said about BCEI. What are the names that you perceive as most unloved today in your space. (This question will probably replace my usual dance card question).Thanks.

  13. 13
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Leon Coop @ Omega Partners performance for 2012 – +26%. I have putting my gold positions into FCX. I can do alot worse than following Mr Leon. 

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil Futures
    Continues to trade in balance with support at 91.25 and resistance at 95. Demand Volume positive.

  15. 15
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Lee C… my hero… sigh.
    Bond markets on either side of green this morning… HY up, HiGrade down.  Guess bonds looking to equities to get a clue.

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:


  17. 17
    Zorgnak Says:

    NG Futs….stretched from long  and short term acceptance

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas(UNG/NG)on DeMark Daily Buy Setup 9 today

  19. 19
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z:  NOG – have you been able to speak to the new guy? I assume he is over Erik as a mouth piece.

  20. 20
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P futs..testing the 1456 pivot

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    re 11 – too kind.  On the TMS, I'd like to see the ECA and EOG's of the world come with more consistent IP's over a broad area and with longer range data.

    re 12 – you're welcome and great question. Let me address in a post soon as opposed to tickers and blurbs today. 

    re 19 – I have not yet, but plan to. NOG is on the list you are looking for. 

    re 16 – yeah, trying to extend. 

    Bakkens also trying to extend. 

  22. 22
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    Z; Thank you for the TPLM update.  It's nice to read actual research 🙂

  23. 23
    Zorgnak Says:

    Energy stock volume flow light so far with 17 of 82 higher than average for time of day  56 green beans out of 82

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    To be fair, I checked with one of my Bakken player contacts last night who checked with someone else who knows ITG and said they are well thought of with geologists on staff and the like. My thought is the comment was off the cuff and inappropriate for the resources and expertise at their disposal.  

    Gassy names more mixed today, Bedwell well may be dinging SWN again this morning as well.

    Oil inventories in 30 minutes. . 

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    WTI $93.50 – over done for my view

    CLR tracking with it as usual. 

    Noted Bakken differential now at $5 off. No big deal in my view, much better than than the old $10 average.  


    LLS holding at $17+ > WTI (snugging up to Brent)) …. I expect that to degrade soon to somewhere between Brent and WTI.



  26. 26
    elduque Says:

    BOP- can you think of a catalyst other than the ultra-deep that is going to cause a lift off on EXXI. Oh, yes I forgot to mention how cheap it is on cash flow and EBITA. 

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    OEDV – wakey, wakey, eggs and bakey

    Primer piece from last September:


    Update piece from November


    And they sent me a nice Chrstmas card covered in derricks 

    Look for another update from the company in late January or February as they start to talk about the 2 rig program results in the Miss Lime. 

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    SJT – doing better than expected given natural gas prices. 

    SWN – swooning, not likely due to Bedwell, likely due to the 50 / 50 odds they put on the Brown Dense becoming a core for them yesterday at BMO. 

  29. 29
    Zorgnak Says:

    SWN  Z is there a level that get's your attention on this one?

  30. 30
    Zorgnak Says:

    Z..any thoughts on SWN at this level 

  31. 31
    Zorgnak Says:

    sorry for the dbl post

  32. 32
    Zorgnak Says:

    CL  5 minutes to oil report… point of control in recent balance range at 93..91.25 suppport

  33. 33
    nrgyman Says:

    Natgas hit 3.14 and is trending down.  Moderate temperatures and stubbornly high production the likely culprits.  Big gap in the charts from 2.90 to 3.00 looks like a magnet.  Also, the 200 dma is now at 2.94.  Looks like a downside target, along with the gap fill at 2.91.  

  34. 34
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs VPOC shift higher ..needs to move on here/now or test lower likely..minor CLVN at 1360

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    re 29, 30

    Yes.  At $32.40 its trading at 6.7x 2013 TEV/EBITDA, not cheap for the group, but historically its not a cheap trader on EBITDA and for them that's somewhat of a bargain.  They are 100% gas but trade at a premium due to the asset base (big and fairly homogeneous), management acumen, low cost nature, and balance sheet. They can grow at double the current rate if they wanted to, just no need. The assets are largely HBP'd in the Fayetteville and have long lease terms in the Marcellus. The returns are a little better at the moment in the Marcellus as realized prices are a touch higher there and LOE is a touch lower and so they are shifting the capital mix to Marcellus. The Fayetteville is still king of the moment for them so without another high return play to drill they drill there as its cash flow positive at current prices. That acreage being HBP'd though means that when they crack the code on the Brown Dense or the Atoka/Marmaton of Colorado or the Montana Bakken/TFS they are likely to knock rigs out of Arkansas and shift capital to those higher return plays (assuming they are higher return at that time) and let the FS slide. With all that said they are growing production low single digits this year and will growth EBITDA more than that assuming gas prices are better in 2013 than they were in 2012 (2012 saw the first slip in EBITDA on an annual basis for them).  

    My laymen's TA eye said once it cracked $33 which was the lower end of the recent basing area, it was headed down to the 200 day SMA which it tapped today and then bounced, to the penny. That also happens to correspond to a comfort level from the summer. So I like it here and may take some more on weakness. Tomorrow we get a big withdrawal that could bounce it for the shorter term minded but will wait to see that. 

    Oil numbers in a second….

  36. 36
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 33:  Also, 2.95 is the 50% retracement level for the advance from the April lows to the Nov highs.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    EIA Oil Inventories

    Crude UP 1.3 mm barrels on big rebound in imports (but only back to the low end of the range)

    Gasoline: Up 7.4 mm barrels – right in line with API if not the Street

    Distillates: Up 6.8 mm barrels – ditto

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    More EIA


    Gasoline – still weak at 8 mm bpd, even weak for time of year, expecting a bounce very soon

    Distillates – 3.1 mm bpd, also very weak. Expect recent bit of cold to inspire some dealer level and consumer restocking soon.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Production: 7.002 mmbopd, up slightly from last time, first time over the 7 mark in 19 years which makes for a nice bearish headline

    Cushing up 0.3 mm barrels to 50.1 …. first time over 50 mm barrels … plenty of room to hold more but that's a record level and will also make for a bearish headline

  40. 40
    Zorgnak Says:

    #33  Great looking exhaustion move to my eye…..breaking down from intra-day exhaustion now  on high volume with the daily setting up with a TD exhaustion buy setup at the end of the day…turn around levels tough to get accurately though for me…

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Exports – stale numbers but holding near the highs, expect a push higher here in coming months. 

    Surprised by the resilience here. Everyone waiting for Seaway reversal to pull those Cushing numbers down. 


  42. 42
    Zorgnak Says:

    CL  distribution off report…first downside tgt at 92.62

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    re 42 – CLR turned on a dime with it, for a big cap, they are the most "tied to oil" name I think I own. Silly market. 

  44. 44
    thumper Says:

    OAS did not like the report as well

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    re 44 – right, none of the Bakkens really did, but my comment on CLR is just from watching how closely that one trades on oil. OAS has had a nice little but remains in my view one of the better values in the Bakken operated list. 

  46. 46
    crysball Says:

    BRENT vs. WTI…………spread direction  and  amount  forecast:

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    And WTI over $90 or even $85 is a good price for where we are at from a storage sense and a good price for my names. I don't want rapidly rising prices. I want stable prices. My names are largely growing so with stable oil prices and much higher production and lower per unit costs and a closing of the gap to FCF status over the next couple of years for many of them I'd be pleased with flat oil prices for quite awhile. 

  48. 48
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK  Above average volume flow. Holding after oil report and group dip

  49. 49
    Zorgnak Says:


  50. 50
    Zorgnak Says:

    ES Balanced profile above key 1456 volume pivot

  51. 51
    Zorgnak Says:

    CL found buyers at first tgt, reverting to acceptance at 93.15

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Zorg – How's the SJT looking to you now from a medium to longer time frame angle?

  53. 53
    elduque Says:

    HK doing what I thought it would do yesterday when cleared resistance. 

  54. 54
    nrgyman Says:

    HK:  Despite weak crude oil and energy stock backdrop, this one is really ramping.  Any specific news?

  55. 55
    Zorgnak Says:

    NOG  Holdng high tight consolidation

  56. 56
    RB Says:

    love is a beautiful thing and man they love HK right now

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Funny how they don't like HK until they do and then there's a rush for the door to get in. 

    Most recent adds were in late November:


    Housekeeping Watch: The convenient thing to do on pages like the Blotter page is to use the find function on your browser, you can then enter the ticker and for HK you'll see the 17 times its mentioned in that post that you can then page through.  Click the up arrow on that find function to go to the 17th (most recent) one.  So our last add was at $6.16.  

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    re 54 – nothing other than the new presentation we commented on in the post and the $400 mm in extra senior notes they popped off last night. 

    re 53 – doing what we thought it would do when we wrote these two posts. I hear the Enercom guys really liked the first one:

    October 2012:  http://seekingalpha.com/article/934831-halcon-resources-an-oily-hawk-that-s-cheaper-than-you-think  

    November 2012: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1005421-halcon-resources-bigger-oilier-and-still-cheaper-than-you-think

    JPM's Allman came out with a Neutral rating after I wrote those. Comment from the company … "his questions were out of left field". He also didn't give them a chance to proof read the report or heads up that it was on its way which is just common courtesy.   You can still get $0 Joe Tshirts for a limited time on the link at upper right under Z's stuff, many sizes but only one color, yellow journalism yellow. 

  59. 59
    Zorgnak Says:

    RRC back to long term acceptance (63) before NG report tomorrow…
    Short the 60 puts

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Zorg – does your stuff work for little ones with bouts of little volume like OEDV?

  61. 61
    Zorgnak Says:

    #60…OEDV…..Less volume = less reliable. However, it's better imo than just working with price alone. 
    Pretty clear that 1.14 is the top of the volume base for this little fellow. Supply begins to thin out above that level….

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    re 61 – cool, news soon. 

  63. 63
    john11 Says:

    SYRG cc  starting

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    re 63 – Ooops, thanks. 

  65. 65
    elduque Says:

    Z- where would you consider selling some OEDV? For the most part I get out of these little animals too early 

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    re 65 – I'd like to see how they do on the next set of wells. They can be highly volatile. I have what I'd call an underweight core there and we added some shares on the last panic there which are a double at this point so ya know, those could go over the side leaving the core alone.  But again, I'd like to see how the next few wells come in as really we're running on 3 gross wells of data at this time and they are starting to add 2 per month. They are going to run through their current borrowing base  before the year is out and understand that as long as their numbers stay up on the 30 day IPs they can borrow more to keep drilling. Should some TA only types get on it and drive it to the mid $1s I'd be hard pressed not to lighten and wait for news or a dip. 

  67. 67
    Zorgnak Says:

    NOG..anyone know the current short interest here off hand?

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    re 67 – flat lining


  69. 69
    Zorgnak Says:


  70. 70
    Zorgnak Says:

    Ralph Acampora is a raging bull here

  71. 71
    Zorgnak Says:

    ES..Testing through the pivot at 1456…gap close at 1452.50

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    re 70 Byron Wien was on CNBC this am looking for a 10% drop in the S&P500 muey pronto. 

  73. 73
    tomdavis12 Says:

    67 Zorg 11.3M. New numbers out end of week.

  74. 74
    Zorgnak Says:

    #70…wouldn't surprise me……
    Acampora was coming from the long term

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    SYRG – A little Wattenberg color. The only C bench Niobrara well they are involved in looks identical to the B bench wells

  76. 76
    Zorgnak Says:

    #73 thanks

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Floyd paper in high demand, price talk on the $400 mm HK 8.875% seniors is 105.50. 

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Watching the gassy names come on off:

    UPL, CRZO, KWK, closing on full breakdowns.  XCO soft of but less dire looking chart in my view. PVA's oil helping it through.  

    SWN maybe a bit but not into the 2012 low area at all. 

    COG – not at all, just a pull off the highs. For a trading thought I see them as a goto name on short term snap backs in natural gas prices, unlike an ECA which just can't get out of its own way.  I haven't owned COG in years and the story has morphed a bit since then may do a trade in the calls there soon, just thinking out loud. 

  79. 79
    elduque Says:

    HK climbing above a downtrend line off of the highs.

  80. 80
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 72:  Wein also predicted WTI going to $70/bbl this year.  Most of the downward predictions center on upcoming DC shenanigans and the effects they will have on the economy.  Tax drag also cited.  Most see a rebound in 2nd half of year.  

  81. 81
    choices Says:

    HK-anyone know if the bond offering will be available to those of us in the cheap seats-IB has four bonds listed for HK, none currently traded.

  82. 82
    Zorgnak Says:

    #78….COG…Hmmmm…tasty looking

  83. 83
    nrgyman Says:

    TPLM:  Nice rebound today.  Good comments Z.  Encouraged me to load up late yesterday.  Thanks again for your work.

  84. 84
    nrgyman Says:

    Congressional approval rating at 10% in latest poll.  As for like-ability,  cockroaches are liked more than Congress.

  85. 85
    nrgyman Says:

    Natgas hit 3.08 recently.  Not far off the downside targets mentioned in posts 33, 36.  

  86. 86
    RMD Says:

    Zork I didn't know Ralph was still around;  used to like their TA work. at Smith Barney.  Thanks.

  87. 87
    skibbi9 Says:

    Thanks for keeping us up to date with TPLM, bought Feb $5 calls yesterday on the drop

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    Have been on a call, back in a bit.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    re 87 – glad it worked for ya

    Analyst Watch

    TPLM – Johnson Rice – noted the report and said they'd buy on the weakness it created. 

    TPLM- Baird calls it an overdone reaction to what's clearly a science project anyway and one for which they current ascribe $0 to TPLM and then closed with

    "The bottom line is we do not think anyone should be buying Triangle solely based on hopes for the Station Prospect, and we similarly believe selling based on the Station Prospect is wrongheaded. Reiterate Outperform."

  90. 90
    tomdavis12 Says:

    RMD – BBEP the strength is 2 firms talked positively about them entering a new growth phase. When were those problems in the past you mentioned '06 -'07?

  91. 91
    Zorgnak Says:

    COG….Low volume dive to support. Volume building there now.

  92. 92
    RMD Says:

    90 Ha ha, I'm flattered you think I can remember something past yesterday, let alone back that far. Waht I do remember: RBC conference had 3 cos on a Panel entitled something like Yields Over 30%.  VNR was on it, I think BBEP, and I forget who else.  I looked into all 3, bought VNR.  Did not buy one because they made a large acq. in a geology the mgt had no experience with  –and I think they choked a bit on it.  I don't know if that was BBEP or the other co.  If it was the other co., there was something else about BBEP I didn't like. Anyway, I bot VNR and stopped paying attention to the other 2.
    That's all I remember, fwiw.

  93. 93
    zman Says:


    Got a little download from NOG. Nothing earthshaking and I never look for that kind of thing from them. Probably going to get the usual quarterly look on numbers prior to the K over the next few weeks. They have not guided for 2013 yet but I'd expect that on the 4Q call, based on my estimates the Street at last check was in line with the 35% ish growth I'm expecting. 

    I'd note that Slawson has 3 rigs running within Windsor now, up from 2 (I think) most of last year.  Windsor is the core I did well studies on several quarters back where Slawson's short lateral wells were over the first 12 months doing nearly as well as Brigham's long laterals in Rough Rider.  No communication seen between the few downspaced wells there and while most sections don't yet have a second short lateral the plan appears to be to keep the rigs on the position until all of the sections get 4 Bakkens. Three Forks results there look strong as well so it's a given they go to 3 or 4 of the TFS on the position over time as well … in other words several years of drilling ahead in their core. 

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    re 92 – Don't believe him on memory, mind like a trap, that humility is just all the Mint Juleps talking. 

  95. 95
    Mark Wetzler Says:

    Zorg,  I see your point on COG pulled to low edge of distribution. How would you play it? straight long looking for a return to 49-50 area? Or some put sale?

  96. 96
    tomdavis12 Says:

    92 RMD I was mostly interested if the current management team was the same as during that difficult time you remember. I will find out how long the current team has been in the saddle.

  97. 97
    RMD Says:

    94 it's Way Too Early for them, but soon…..it will be 6:00 somewhere.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Pack – re what's wrong with XCO – 4 words. Natural gas price, leverage. 

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    Likely to add soon in SWN. 

  100. 100
    tomdavis12 Says:

    CHK has a broken convert. Cusip # 165167BW6. Putable 11/15/15. yield to put 3.21%. Trading at discount. 

  101. 101
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…1452.50 would close the open gap

  102. 102
    Zorgnak Says:

    #95 COG….any of the above I suppose.  I sld the Feb 44 puts for .85. May buy the short dated calls as well..not sure

  103. 103
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P futs..below the gap the next levels of interest at the O/N low at 51 and then the Tues VPOC/CHVN at 49.50

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    Here, working on some stuff, shout if you need something. 

  105. 105
    RMD Says:

    BCEI comment from friend in NYC who heard mgt present  at a very smart $ mgr shop:
    new to story, impressed with low lifting cost, mgt happy to grow at 50% for a while, wow, how'd we miss this one?

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    re 105 – thanks and give them my calling card.  Anything on the SYRG CC strike you as particularly interesting. I was half listening and am planning on circling back to it soon. 

  107. 107
    thumper Says:

    anybody know what just happened to CHK?

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    re 107 – JPM just upgraded it. 

  109. 109
    thumper Says:

    thanks Z

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    re 109 – you're welcome. Beware JPM analysts bearing sudden changes of heart, LOL. 

  111. 111
    elduque Says:

    Z- what is the chances of doing an update on the gassy stocks. 

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    re 111 – doing one next week my friend. 

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    and stop hacking my computer 😉

  114. 114
    thumper Says:

    is that $0 Joe????

  115. 115
    nrgyman Says:

    Bakken names holding in well compared to other E&Ps.  Z has given us lots of reasons as to why.  Some notes to self to summarize:  
    1) anticipation of the reduced spread between Brent and WTI due to Seaway and other take-away advances providing support for WTI;
    2) high crude oil mix–natgas players are being sold ATM
    3) production growth–Bakken is prolific with multiple benches for future growth
    4) drilling and completion costs are falling–allows for more wells with less capex
    5) maturation and growing strength of pure Bakken players–seasoned companies, better science for drilling, better finances, etc
    6) cheap valuation multiples on 2013-14 ebitda and production
    7) positive publicity as an investment theme for future domestic economic growth (applies to all, but Bakken is the poster basin–and according to many (eg STO), the best)
    8) fraccing threat is diminishing (reduces negative threat to all unconventional drillers including Bakken players)
    9) M&A possibilities–most players would love to be larger in the Bakken

  116. 116
    zman Says:

    re 114 – last time I checked , yes. 

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    re 115 – nice and concise, well said, thanks. There are some opportunities on the operating cost side we will see from some players this year as well. Maturation of oily well vintages leads to higher LOE as they require more TLC over time however higher volumes in general and more volumes being piped from the well head instead of trucked and more other liquids doing the same as well as more barrels getting further away from the Basin via rail will offer up EBITDA margin expansion opportunities. 

  118. 118
    Zorgnak Says:

    32 of 82 with above average

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    Tiny OEDV with best volume in 3 months

  120. 120
    zman Says:


  121. 121
    Zorgnak Says:

    Additional volume spikes today (1.6X 21 Day MA)

  122. 122
    Zorgnak Says:

    Z..thanks for bring COG onto the radar today..nice setup

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Energy Secretary Chu rumored to be out within days. White House said to be looking for someone to get behind oil and gas production and nuclear management.  Maybe a nod towards where the jobs are. 

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    re 122 – cool. 

  125. 125
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 123:  That is good news.  Obama relies heavily on his energy secretary for energy positions and Chu was mainly an alternative energy proponent–probably why he was selected.  If this is true it would be a signal that Obama wants to move more towards supporting oil & natgas development and how to use it to benefit the economy more effectively.  This might be hopium, but there may be a realistic energy policy under consideration that an experienced secretary could assist with in a major way.  All eyes will be glued to who is selected.

  126. 126
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures..A price level doesn't get any more accepted than today's close at the VPOC and Volume pivot at 1456. VPOC shifted above the CHVN at 1449.50. Bulls still in charge

  127. 127
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK Building acceptance above the break out point with a VPOC shift to 7.70 today. Nice

  128. 128
    Zorgnak Says:

    TPLM headed back to previous acceptance around 6.40.

  129. 129
    ram Says:

    Re 125 – I'm rootin for the current ceo of exxonmobil.

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    HK – Scratch the $400 mm offer, and make that $600 mm priced at 105.

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    and they're not for Joe public consumption. 

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    Not Shocking Watch: USGS sampled 127 wells in the Fayetteville Shale and found … wait for it … no evidence of that sahel gas drilling had contaminate water in two Arkansas counties where concerns had been raised.  


  133. 133
    Zorgnak Says:

    DeMark Exhaustion "TD9" Buy Setups on nat gas ETF UNG today on the Daily and Intra-day time frames. Uusally good for a bounce in either time frame within 3 bars. Same setup on the futures.


  134. 134
    nrgyman Says:

    Interesting spec stock.  Canol Shale sounds promising, but expensive due to remoteness.  Thoughts?

  135. 135
    brodway Says:

    I second Eldque's comments that the quality of information is more than worth the price of entry. Thanks for the great TPLM piece. Unfortunately, price never saw a down tick from the open and i remain with the same position. Was hoping to add today, but happy to see stock rebounding to where it left off prior to the bad press.

  136. 136
    zman Says:

    re 134 – Canadian, not my game, but will have a look, title is pretty hypey

    re 135 – thanks much, thanks for sticking with us through the years. 

  137. 137
    nrgyman Says:

    Article today in WSJ on the fizzled natgas rally:

  138. 138
    Zorgnak Says:

    ES Trading to the upper tail of balance area ahead of Jobs #. Volume pivot at 1456 short term key on any pull back .APPL trading up 1.44% premkt

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