22
Dec

Wrap – Week Ended 12/21/12

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Closed option trades last week:

  • HK – Sold the second set of (10) HK December calls for $1.20, up 287% to cost. No plans to sell the common in the ZMT or ZLT.
  • KOG – Sold the (10) December $9 calls for $0.05 vs my $0.29 cost.
  • MMR – Sold the (20) January $15 calls for $0.76, up 13%. Holding common until a print over $16 or will await cash and the Jim Bob Royalty Trust units in exchange for our MMR shares. 

Closed common share positions last week:

In the ZLT - BCEI – Trimmed back the trading position for an average of $28.12, up 53% to these shares taken last Spring. No plans to sell the core but may triim back trading shares more if/as it rises. 

In the ZLT C -  Took 1/3 of the BCEI shares off the table at $28.10, up 94%. The position had gotten overly large for these portfolios. 

 

Comments for last week will be included in the Monday post along with:

  • The Week That Was
  • A couple of company mini updates
  • And a new contest for the new year 

Have a great shopping filled weekend, consume petrol driving from place to place, and if you can't find that perfect thing, contact us to send someone a gift subscription. 

15 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 12/21/12”

  1. 1
    nrgyman Says:

    Barron's out with Jim Chanos pumping his short positions in leveraged natgas stocks.  When asked which ones, he said, "Let's just say that if you look at the leveraged guys who were buying lots of properties five years ago that are trying to sell them aggressively now, it is a pretty good bet we're short them."  

  2. 2
    brodway Says:

    that could well mean CHK.

  3. 3
    tomdavis12 Says:

    In Barron's – Hodges Small Cap Fund -HDSPX. Eric Marshall. 2 of his top 10 are Zman names. LNCO & OAS.

  4. 4
    brodway Says:

    LNCO looking pretty cheap after a nice run up post its debut, its come down to the lower end of its trading range

  5. 5
    brodway Says:

    probably nothing new to what is already has been discussed here, but thought it would reinforce a few thoughts. interesting read
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1077281-byron-king-s-shocking-2013-predictions?source=yahoo

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Interesting given they are big piece of Non-OPEC supply growth

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/22/brazil-petroleum-deficit-idUSL1E8NM16Q20121222

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 5

    I abhor the use of the word "shocking" in stories relating to predictions

    Just to his points that I care in my space:

    1) Actually, the Ultra Deep won't need high natural gas prices to make it work, given the size of the reserve pool, the F&D costs will be exceedingly low in time

    2) Decline rates on shale gas and shale oil wells are going to be highly varied and dependent on how you want to produce toe well. Saying its "shocking" to see high first year declines only means you haven't been paying attention. Go back to the early days in the Barnett, prior to Devon "discovering" it (by buying out Mitchell) and you'll note hyperbolic decline rates. Fast forward to the Haynesville shale and first year declines of 75 to 85% were the norm. It's actually better now.  Tighter chokes mean a lower IP, but a lower decline rate as well and first year cumulative volumes that are commonly higher than seen in  higher IP (open flow type) completions in the early days with the ultimate intended effect of boosting reserve recovery. Therefore the comments on economics are debatable in some cases and just wrong in others.

    3) Rig counts vs production rates are less tied now than ever. What'a a gas well anyway? Again, a problematic argument by him. A State by State read of what's going on in gas land is what we do monthly and demand figures in as well. $7 is one of those comments you make that will peoples attention and when it doesn't come to pass, you hope people forget it. 

  8. 8
    brodway Says:

    re: 7
    thanks for the above comments. there is no single source of information out there, i think parallels the accuracy and quality of information you provide. i like to read what others think, and thought the uranium comment in the article was interesting. 

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    re 8 – yep, agreed, a number of items in there of interest, just wanted to make some clarifications in my area. 

  10. 10
    elduque Says:

    Z get busy in the trading day and forget to let you know how much I appreciate all your work:
    1. individual company reports
    2. Tables, like the yield cos. Sure that it takes hours to do and many thanks.
    3. Answering with patience many of my simplistic questions. 
     
    I am grateful for all that I have learned. 
     
     
     

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    re 10 – very kind of you to say, makes us happy to hear that its a help. Thanks for sticking with us for the last several years!

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

     
     
    Crude Oil Futures
    Crude continues to base below the CHVN/Volume Pivot at 90 with positive demand volume short term, improving slowly longer term.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/Crude_Composite_2.png
     
    Nat Gas Futures
    NG consolidating at long term acceptance 3.44  after (TD13) and volume spike exhaustion buy set up 12/10&12/13. . support at 3.29. Resistance 3.53.  Demand volume flat. 

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/NG_Composite_2.png

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/NG_Composite_3.png

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    XOP  E&P looks ready for more. Demand volume is positive in all time frames.  Near resistance at 55, far at 57.64.
     http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/Stock_Weekly_3_2.png
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/Stock_Weekly_3.png
    FCG  Nat Gas stocks look setup for more upside with a sustained break above the 3 month volume base at 16.25. Demand volume positive on the daily time frame, with longer term improving but not yet consistent. Expecting upside moves to be halting/choppy until demand volume aligns long and short term. Far resistance at 17.18
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/Stock_Weekly_3_3.png

  14. 14
    brodway Says:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/continental-closes-bakken-purchase-230859287.html

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Some free stuff on OAS

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1079491-oasis-petroleum-fundamentals-in-overdrive-stock-in-neutral-but-not-for-long

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