22
Dec
Wrap – Week Ended 12/21/12
Closed option trades last week:
- HK – Sold the second set of (10) HK December calls for $1.20, up 287% to cost. No plans to sell the common in the ZMT or ZLT.
- KOG – Sold the (10) December $9 calls for $0.05 vs my $0.29 cost.
- MMR – Sold the (20) January $15 calls for $0.76, up 13%. Holding common until a print over $16 or will await cash and the Jim Bob Royalty Trust units in exchange for our MMR shares.
Closed common share positions last week:
In the ZLT - BCEI – Trimmed back the trading position for an average of $28.12, up 53% to these shares taken last Spring. No plans to sell the core but may triim back trading shares more if/as it rises.
In the ZLT C - Took 1/3 of the BCEI shares off the table at $28.10, up 94%. The position had gotten overly large for these portfolios.
Comments for last week will be included in the Monday post along with:
- The Week That Was
- A couple of company mini updates
- And a new contest for the new year
Have a great shopping filled weekend, consume petrol driving from place to place, and if you can't find that perfect thing, contact us to send someone a gift subscription.
Barron's out with Jim Chanos pumping his short positions in leveraged natgas stocks. When asked which ones, he said, "Let's just say that if you look at the leveraged guys who were buying lots of properties five years ago that are trying to sell them aggressively now, it is a pretty good bet we're short them."
December 22nd, 2012 at 1:04 pmthat could well mean CHK.
December 22nd, 2012 at 1:16 pmIn Barron's – Hodges Small Cap Fund -HDSPX. Eric Marshall. 2 of his top 10 are Zman names. LNCO & OAS.
December 22nd, 2012 at 1:39 pmLNCO looking pretty cheap after a nice run up post its debut, its come down to the lower end of its trading range
December 22nd, 2012 at 1:42 pmprobably nothing new to what is already has been discussed here, but thought it would reinforce a few thoughts. interesting read
December 22nd, 2012 at 1:48 pmhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1077281-byron-king-s-shocking-2013-predictions?source=yahoo
Interesting given they are big piece of Non-OPEC supply growth
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/22/brazil-petroleum-deficit-idUSL1E8NM16Q20121222
December 22nd, 2012 at 2:13 pmre 5
I abhor the use of the word "shocking" in stories relating to predictions
Just to his points that I care in my space:
1) Actually, the Ultra Deep won't need high natural gas prices to make it work, given the size of the reserve pool, the F&D costs will be exceedingly low in time
2) Decline rates on shale gas and shale oil wells are going to be highly varied and dependent on how you want to produce toe well. Saying its "shocking" to see high first year declines only means you haven't been paying attention. Go back to the early days in the Barnett, prior to Devon "discovering" it (by buying out Mitchell) and you'll note hyperbolic decline rates. Fast forward to the Haynesville shale and first year declines of 75 to 85% were the norm. It's actually better now. Tighter chokes mean a lower IP, but a lower decline rate as well and first year cumulative volumes that are commonly higher than seen in higher IP (open flow type) completions in the early days with the ultimate intended effect of boosting reserve recovery. Therefore the comments on economics are debatable in some cases and just wrong in others.
3) Rig counts vs production rates are less tied now than ever. What'a a gas well anyway? Again, a problematic argument by him. A State by State read of what's going on in gas land is what we do monthly and demand figures in as well. $7 is one of those comments you make that will peoples attention and when it doesn't come to pass, you hope people forget it.
December 22nd, 2012 at 2:28 pmre: 7
December 22nd, 2012 at 2:59 pmthanks for the above comments. there is no single source of information out there, i think parallels the accuracy and quality of information you provide. i like to read what others think, and thought the uranium comment in the article was interesting.
re 8 – yep, agreed, a number of items in there of interest, just wanted to make some clarifications in my area.
December 22nd, 2012 at 4:27 pmZ get busy in the trading day and forget to let you know how much I appreciate all your work:
December 23rd, 2012 at 11:18 am1. individual company reports
2. Tables, like the yield cos. Sure that it takes hours to do and many thanks.
3. Answering with patience many of my simplistic questions.
I am grateful for all that I have learned.
re 10 – very kind of you to say, makes us happy to hear that its a help. Thanks for sticking with us for the last several years!
December 23rd, 2012 at 12:56 pmCrude Oil Futures
Crude continues to base below the CHVN/Volume Pivot at 90 with positive demand volume short term, improving slowly longer term.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/Crude_Composite_2.png
Nat Gas Futures
NG consolidating at long term acceptance 3.44 after (TD13) and volume spike exhaustion buy set up 12/10&12/13. . support at 3.29. Resistance 3.53. Demand volume flat.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/NG_Composite_2.png
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/NG_Composite_3.png
December 23rd, 2012 at 1:06 pm
December 23rd, 2012 at 1:07 pmXOP E&P looks ready for more. Demand volume is positive in all time frames. Near resistance at 55, far at 57.64.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/Stock_Weekly_3_2.png
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/Stock_Weekly_3.png
FCG Nat Gas stocks look setup for more upside with a sustained break above the 3 month volume base at 16.25. Demand volume positive on the daily time frame, with longer term improving but not yet consistent. Expecting upside moves to be halting/choppy until demand volume aligns long and short term. Far resistance at 17.18
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/23/Stock_Weekly_3_3.png
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/continental-closes-bakken-purchase-230859287.html
December 23rd, 2012 at 9:48 pmSome free stuff on OAS
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1079491-oasis-petroleum-fundamentals-in-overdrive-stock-in-neutral-but-not-for-long
December 23rd, 2012 at 10:32 pm