15
Dec

Wrap – Week Ended 12/14/12

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Comments will be included in the Monday post. 

23 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 12/14/12”

  1. 1
    nrgyman Says:

    Interesting and controversial take on domestic energy policy and investing:
     
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1064591-president-obama-listen-to-porter-stansberry-s-plan-for-eliminating-the-trade-deficit?source=email_portfolio&ifp=0

  2. 2
    choices Says:

    OT-not necessarily O & G but significant for the overall global demand issue-from a group which I believe are fairly savvy:
    http://www.cumber.com/commentary.aspx?file=121012.asp

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Three guys you might want to listen to on TA stuff on twitter

     

    @zorgnak

    @traderstewie

    @wex2

     

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    #3 Ha! that first guy is pretty shady….

  5. 5
    elduque Says:

    Santa Claus for nat gas bulls????
     
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

  6. 6
    brodway Says:

    Re: 4
    yeah, maybe slim shady, but he's pretty good 🙂

  7. 7
    brodway Says:

     
    re: 5
    Does that mean snow in Florida? 🙂
    SWN coming into the low 30's has to offer an interesting trade. The stock has been just about here last December until nat gas inventories put pressure on the stock and it got into the upper 20's. If this winter offers any sort of cold spell, those numbers could come down and stock would be a bargain.

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Bullish China market action and  news flow continues
    http://www.businessinsider.com/china-central-economic-working-conference-decides-to-keep-policy-bullish-2012-12

  9. 9
    Mark Wetzler Says:

    snoles or anyone else who would like some Market Profile and Volume Profile articles, send me an email. You can tweet me @wex2 and we can DM the information

  10. 10
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: If our fiscal cliff means we are likely to see forms of spending cuts and higher taxes, that should add some recessionary pressures. If true that should add to lower price pressure for crude? Are there any names that should struggle in a below $80 WTI envoirnment? As Nrgyman's article in #1 indicates those that have aggressively added property to their balance sheets may struggle. Who would be on your struggle list?  

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    re 10 –  Tied up at the moment, will answer tomorrow. 

  12. 12
    nrgyman Says:

    Re 5:  Still looks to me like the probabilities favor above normal to normal temps for most of the country, the east coast states being the exception.  Not as warm as last year, but not super bullish either.  So far, this winter season has not met the cooler expectations priced into the natgas trade.  Hence the selloff.  Not sure if this temperature forecast will change perceptions very much, but the cooler than normal east coast may affect trader's views enough to reverse the decline.  Natgas has pulled back to the uptrend line from the April low and to the 100 dma line.  Price may also have reached 'exhaustion levels' after the big decline from 4.00 to 3.30.  The chart and TA support here will be important to watch.  Breaking down from here would clearly be bearish.  A 50% retracement of the rally from the April lows would put natgas around 2.95, which just so happens to be around where the 200 dma resides together with a huge gap from Sept 21.  Re-tracing 50% of the bull move from the April lows, returning to the 200 dma and filling that gap would not be far-fetched bearish price objectives.  This will be interesting, especially at a time when many natgas players expected natgas to move in a bullish direction due to winter conditions increasing demand for heat.  The natgas uptrend is still intact ATM, but bouncing from here will be needed to keep it so.  Just my limited TA take.

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Futures Notes
    Volume profile has NG  stretched below long term acceptance at 3.48, closing above the key CLVN at 3.29 after rejecting the 3.25 CHVN on Friday. Selling Volume dries up considerable below 3.25. Daily Demark TD13 exhaustion buy setup. completed 12/13. (12 day window). Demand volume exhaustion extremes to same levels as the 1/20 & 4/20 bounces. Off the chart alone it looks exhausted short term, expecting bounce back to major acceptance at 3.48.  . 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/16/NG_Composite.png

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P 500 Futures Weekly Notes/Thoughts
    Notes..  Market rejected 1422 CHVN as too high, testing back to previous major acceptance beginning at the 1406.25 minor CHVN with the major CHVN/MCHVN at 1400.25, the major magnet  below.  Near resistance at 1412 CLVN with little market structure to 1419. Demand volume and breadth are turning over . Liquidity is supportive.  Low volume area above 1412 offers room for upside spike. Dense congestion below from 1406 to the 1389.25 CLVN.  Risk sectors are mixed.  Currencies are supportive but extended. Further pullback, closing in the lower 10% of the 10 day range with POMO supportive thru 12/26, would set up a high odds swing trade (87%wins,6.66 Profit Factor).  Negative sentiment increasing as fiscal cliff/debt ceiling talks drag on.
    Thoughts…..Market dropped though low volume zone to test  1406.25 CHVN and the bullish bias last week. If 1406.25 holds the market has room to rally with little market structure above into a low volume zone from  1412-1418. Expecting supply at 1422.  Below  1406.25 I see the major CHVN at 1400 as the next downside target. Expecting any  trading below 1406.25 to be choppy, becoming heavier the further below 1400. .  Expecting  high odds technical bounce above 1389.25.  A break below the key 1389.25 CLVN  level opens up for testing to 1360 and below.  Market moving primarily on hopes/prospects of a political settlement  and as such is impossible to game short term.
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
    1428  CLVN
    1422 CHVN
    1418.25 Minor CLVN/Upper end low volume zone
    1412       Minor CLVN/Lower end of low volume zone
    1406       Minor CHVN
    1400.25 CHVN/Major Price Magnet
    1389.25  CLVN/Key CLVN
     
     
     
     
    S&P Futures
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/16/Es_Composite_2_2.png

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    Crude Oil Futures…
    Trading in balanced at the major long term CHVN at 86.25 and at the lower end of an intermediate term double distribution of volume with at 90.25 mid point. Selling volume dries up below 85. CHVN. Demand volume flat. Ease of movement favors the upside. Working on 12th bar of a daily DeMark exhaustion buy set up (TD13).
    Expecting any retest at or below 85 to be short lived. Looking for retest higher to 90.25
     
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/16/Crude_Composite.png

  16. 16
    mimster90 Says:

    Fascinating article #1l Thansk nrgyman

  17. 17
    brodway Says:

    re: 16
    This revolution in the shale exploration is indeed a monumental opportunity for the US. I share his opinion that playing our cards right may offer a way out of our huge national debt and current account deficit. I'm not buying his theory, however, that the E&P names do not stand to benefit from the production of energy. Saying the companies supporting the oil exploration, specifically, delivery, storage, etc. will benefit the most may or may not be true, but without oil companies pumping out the oil what exactly are they moving, storing or building ? There has to be a profit margin for the E&P names to continue drilling, and they will benefit too. Maybe Zman will chime in and offer his opinion.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Didn't see much new or thunderous there but not going to get into reviewing those thoughts on the weekend in the public part of the site. 

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    and adding to that Brodway, I stop reading when I hear guys say stuff like it won't benefit the E&Ps … if it doesn't then it won't happen in a sustainable way, and that wouldn't be playing ones cards right. 

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    and adding to that oil is global, gas is local, and I have a string of several charts in tomorrow's post that show how imports have been falling as production has been rising, especially post 2008 which coincides with horizontal oil production becoming much more popular and the drop in the US economy. Add the two together and you only high high inventories due to week demand on the domestic front. Even that's being partially offset by product exports.  The old phrase "Oil is global, gas is local" comes to mind.  It helps explain a lot of my thinking on why oil prices in the coming years in the States won't be like natural gas has been since 2008. 

  21. 21
    brodway Says:

    Sorry to bring you out of the weekend hibernation. Looking forward to your Monday notes. 

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    re 21 – ha, no worries, just didn't see much there that was new and I find the guys who just assume the E&Ps will produce at whatever price so that they don't benefit and the midstream guys do, to be, well, tiresome. 

  23. 23
    crysball Says:

    Z,
    Here  is an in-depth  analysis  of  the PBF  Toledo  refinery   and  the  PBF  crude  supply  and  refined  product  marketing  arrangments.
    http://www.rbnenergy.com/masterpiece-refining-part-2-holy-toledo
    Also,  you asked  who  might  have  a copy  of the IPO  prospectus.
    Rusty  Braziel  does:
    Rusty Braziel                 | RBN Energy, LLC
    888-400-9838 (office)      | Houston, TX                                                    
    713-202-3190 (cell)         | 713-391-8421 (fax)
    903-881-9260 (direct)      | 713-202-3190 (cell)
    rbraziel@rbnenergy.com

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