24
Nov

Wrap – Week Ended 11/23/12

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19 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 11/23/12”

  1. 1
    zmantest3 Says:

    testing, testing, 1, 2, 3

  2. 2
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Does it look like the dry bulk rates are turning up technically? Opening to coach Razorbacks?  

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    re 2

    Maybe a bit on the Capesize bulkers.  

    http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp

    Re Coach – there should be an announcement tomorrow. 

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P futs…Mark M nailed the reaction to the NOV 7th bar on the upside retest last week.No body home to 1406.Good eyeballs
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/11/25/Es_Composite_2_3.png

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE  Big cap energy trading into long term congestion with minor support at 70.75, major support at 70. Resistance at 72.62. Demand volume improving, still suspect with lower overall volume
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/11/25/Stock_Weekly_3_2.png

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP working through congestion with support at 52, resistance at 55. Rejected long and short term acceptance (53) as too low. Strong short term demand volume off exhaustion low, longer term unclear.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/11/25/Stock_Weekly_3_3.png

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    FCG  Nat Gas Stocks  Demand volume weak improving…defined resistance at 17.18. Support low 15s
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/11/25/Stock_Weekly_3_4.png

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    Notes…. Low volume run through low volume area from  1388.50 -1401 with excess  testing into the pre-election range at the 1406 CHVN volume pivot. 1401 now minor support  with low volume  area below to 1388.50. Long and short term acceptance at 1379 CHVN and key support at 1370.50.  Demand volume improving/low absolute volume. Breath continues to improve off oversold extreme. Currencies supportive. POMO negative through Monday and then ramps up strongly into the end of the month. Broad sector participation.
    Thoughts … Stronger than expected market finish last week.  Expecting a stall near previous supply  at 1406.75 with a retest of support at 1388.50. Short term bullish bias above 1379 with key support at 1370.50. Bulls need to see buyers at or above 1370.50 or risk a deeper test to previous acceptance at or below 1351. I’m expecting buyers to show again above 1370.50 but respect the consequences of a break if I’m wrong.  90% up volume day on 11/16, a follow though day this week in non holiday trading would be encouraging . Bears would hate a sustained move above 1406, increasing the squeeze to key resistance at 1416.  Major air pockets between 1401-1388, 1370-1359 leaving room for outsized moves/increasing volatility.
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone-VPOC=Daily Most Accepted Price
    1416 CLVN, Resistance
    1406.75  CHVN, Supply/Previous point of rejection
    1401      Minor CLVN, Low volume area below to 1388.50.
    1388.50 Minor CLVN, Support
    1379.50  CHVN, Volume pivot. Bullish short term bias above.
    1370.50   CLVN, Key support with low volume area below to 1359 and below.
    1351.25   Major CHVN
    S&P Futures
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/11/25/Es_Composite_2_2.png

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Catalyst Parts I &II updated here:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/catalysts/

    ZLT Stats updated here:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/wiowio-2/

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    The ZLT Blotter is updated here:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/zeb-zlt-blotter/

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Conversation on Energy

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    In today's post please find:

    a) some near term thoughts on natural gas (nutshell, possible dip then another push to new highs)

    b) The Week That Was

    c) What Price When? oily name edition

  13. 13
    brodway Says:

    re:8 very useful levels Zorg. 
    will be keeping an eye on markets and looking to buy back a few stocks i unloaded if they got lower. really loving the gas trade now, especially SWN, RRC and XCO. they have all been resilient and would be goods adds 5-10% lower. temperatures down into freezing range tonight in the NorthEast. would not be surprised to see gas storage numbers coming down faster then expected.

  14. 14
    brodway Says:

    Zorg.
    one thing i could not make out that i was hoping you can clarify. on the 1370 support level you mentioned in post 8 in particular. why is it that the key levels on the way down different now, specifically 1386, 1366 and 1343 were the previous levels of interest, yet now i see 1379, 1370 and 1351 as the key levels

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    #14  I'll try. Remember this isn't rocket science but a very subjective assessment of where I see the confluence of acceptance and rejection on three time frames along with current demand volume trends. 
     The distribution of volume is continually creating a changing confluence of market structure in multiple time frames. A current example of this is the long term CHVN at 1379 seen on the far right histogram that now aligns with a short term high volume node seen on middle volume histogram. Neither of these features existed prior to the post election sell off. Now they're primary features of the nearest  levels where buyers and sellers most agreed on price, long and short term. CLVNs shift or vanish altogether by additional volume  filling in once low volume areas. 1386 has become 1388.50 as an example. Sometimes I'll drop a level in significance because it no longer seems as(to me) relevant given the recent market action. For example I chose 1370.50 a key support over 1366 because of the confluence of both long and short term low volume levels and  responsive price action at 1370.50 recently. 1366 may yet turn out to be "the"level but it was bypassed without reaction on the two previous occasions.
    Also,on Friday I dropped a couple of years of long term data from the major volume profile. That  changed the longer term levels somewhat. I had added the longer term  data several months ago as price ran to multi-year highs and outstripped  any recent volume data. Now that we've dropped down into more recent historical ranges I find that dropping the old data defines the more current and relevant levels more clearly. 
    On 1370.50 as a key level…I've pegged 1379.50 as long and short term acceptance in a wide  range from 1340-1406. If price fails to break/hold above current supply(1406) to regain the previous pre-election range then I expect price to attempt to return to acceptance at 1379.50. If price overshoots 1379.50 and fails to hold at 1370.50 there is both a short and long term volume gap that leads to much lower prices at major acceptance at 1351 and below. So I see this level as the key level between possible continued upside attempts or a retest of recent lows.
    Most of the time the major levels don't change much and they reappear over and over again.
    Hope this makes sense…time for pizza
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/11/25/Es_Composite_2_4.png
     

  16. 16
    brodway Says:

    ok thanks for the explanation. from what i gather, these levels can change based on market dynamics. the 1351 level was easy to see.  buyers and sellers sat there for some time without anyone looking to take it in either direction. other levels not so obvious.
    enjoy your pizza. next time you are in NY give me a look and i'll treat to some of the best pizza ever. 🙂

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    That bout of expected NG profit taking engaging tonight, I would not expect it to get out of hand but we will be getting a smaller injection this week and then supply and demand data at week's end. 

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    #16..thanks…sounds great

  19. 19
    choices Says:

    Corzine-wonder how he is doing w/hedge fund start up:
    From article below:
    'I’m no prosecutor, but this reluctance to hold Corzine criminally responsible for what happened at MF Global seems like a crime in itself.'
     http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-25/congress-damns-corzine-but-lets-him-off-the-hook.html

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