Wrap – Week Ended 11/16/12

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Wrap comments will be included in the Monday post. 

Free Stuff Watch:

Halcon Part 1

Halcon Part 2

Next week look for the What Price When Oil edition update, the Bakken Players update Part II, the WIOWIO, and more. 

18 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 11/16/12”

  1. 1
    choices Says:

    SD-weekend read-interesting, Ward learned well from Aubrey, greed is good (however, not so well for the shareholders); takeaway from this article is if/when Ward and the BOD are shown the highway, SD may become attractive:
    Devon Shire seems to be an astute observer-he was all over Aubrey's shenanigans:

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    Big Cap energy XLE selling spike and exhaustion buy set up on Friday at support (58). Major acceptance at 71.
    Energy/Income funds/Stocks (AMJ/FEN/AMLP/WHZ) bouncing on high volume after volume selling crescendo Thursday and Friday AM. Income stocks in general were leaders during the market’s Friday’s late day recovery. AMLP resistance at 16. Chart prices not adjusted for dividends.
    XOP  High intra-day volume bounce off of support (50) with near resistance at 52

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    FCG..Nat Gas Stock ETF  Reached defined support (15) on Friday AM. Expecting choppy drift higher to into congestion.

  4. 4
    choices Says:

    Thanks, zorg-OIH:  where do you see support-seeing some small service stks getting crush w/reduced drilling/completions: e.g PSN.TO, active in the Bakken.

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    Energy Stocks With Volume Spikes on Friday

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Article someone requested I post:


  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    #4  OIH  Component stocks, as a group, reached intra-day exhaustion buy setups last week and into daily and weekly exhaustion this week with some buyers coming in late Friday. I don’t see an OIH support level so much as just selling exhaustion with near resistance now at 38. As a group they’re now trading between two wide CHVNs at 38 and 44. Hard to say which one will dominate from here but the trend is down with very poor demand volume to my eye and any bounces are more likely sold than not.  Some individual stocks stand out in Oil/Svcs group with relatively intact positive technical pictures. No doubt there are others but they’re still fish swimming up stream at the moment  ….imo.

    CAM moving easily after price/volume exhaustion. Demand volume improving
    OII Moving easily on positive demand volume, held above defined resistance at 51
    ESV Holding previous breakout area/defined support  >200 Ma.
    PTEN Positive demand volume, moving easily in a down market.
    DO  Holding defined support above the 200 MA

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Always worth reading


  9. 9
    DaveH Says:

    OT: I have had Time Warner Internet for 14 years. On my latest bill they started charging $3.95/month for "Internet Modem Lease", which they had never done before. I called them and they said it was a new policy for all customers. I verified with them that I can buy my own modem and then they will remove the charge. In fact when I asked they are going to remove the charge from the current bill and send me a free Fed Ex box to return their modem with them paying the postage for the return. You can buy a new modem on Amazon for $50 to $60. But in reading the comments on these, people said that the newer ones are failing after about 18 months. I have had the same modem for 14 years so it is pretty reliable. That model, the Motorola Surfboard SB5100, is no longer manufactured but you can buy them used and guaranteed to work on Amazon for $17.95. Since mine has been so reliable and does everything I need, I am doing that. That will pay for itself in 4 1/2 months. If you have Time Warner "Turbo" Internet the SB5100 will not work and you will need a different model. (I run real time quotes from two different brokers simultaneously during the trading day without "Turbo" and have no speed problems so don't see the need for "Turbo".) There is a place on the Time Warner web site where they have a list of which modems customers can use when they supply their own modems. The SB5100 is not on that list but they verified that I can continue to use that model when I replace their leased SB5100. When you replace the leased modem with your purchased modem, you have to call Time Warner and request that they activate the MAC address of your replacement modem. The MAC address is on the label on the bottom of the modem and each modem has a different MAC address.

  10. 10
    Baylor Says:

    holy smokes!  I've been away from the market for a few weeks and SSN has become a train wreck.  Is there any hope for this company?  I don't usually invest in hope, but the data we were sharing here 6 months ago in no way indicated we'd be a .55 cent stock. 

    What's the sentiment moving forward?  I'll try to scan the old posts to see what I can get caught up on. 

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futures Weekly Notes/Thoughts
    Notes..  Down trending price, breadth and sentiment reached  exhaustion points last week consistent with the beginning of a meaningful low.  The 1343.25 CHVN was rejected as too low on “news” with price/volume building acceptance at 1351.50, the current long and short term volume pivot.  Friday closed above VPOC at 1351.25. Relative low volume levels  from 1351.50 to 1380 remain a highly volatile area with price able to move quickly in either direction. Near supply/resistance at 1366 is first test of upside demand.  1333.25 is key support.  Currencies extended/reverting.  Sector rotations in downtrends with exhaustion setups on the daily/weekly time frames.  POMO is not supportive = weak bounces and price spike failures within a low volume area until end of month.  
    Thoughts……..Expecting a choppy trading between 1333.50 and 1368.75 with 1351.50 as the price magnet/volume pivot as the market attempts to put in bottom over the next couple weeks.  Limited upside until there is a shift in demand volume lasting more than one day.  See near resistance at 1366-68 with heavy resistance/supply  at 1386 and above.   A break of key CLVN support at 1333.50 would suggest another leg down to 1300 and below.  
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
    1396        CHVN, Heavy supply
    1386         Major CLVN, Resistance
    1366-68    Minor CLVN, Resistance
    1351.25    CHVN, Volume pivot. 
    1343          Wide acceptance from 1343-1351. Additional downside pressure below this level.
    1333.50    CLVN, Key Support

    1291-1301 Major Long Term Acceptance/ Magnet if 1333.50 fails as support.

    S&P Futures
    Intra-day including last week

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil Futs… Little recent supply between 87.50 and 90. Demand volume positive intra-day, improving on the daily time frame.
    93  Acceptance
    90 Far Resistance
    89 Near Resistance
    85.50 Support

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat  Gas Futs trading in balance building for a move higher. Support at 3.66. Resistance 3.88. Demand volume lining up in all time frames supporting higher prices
    Longer Term Look

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    re #11 and first chart of S&P Futs….wrong chart..The chart below is the correct longer term look.  Intra-day chart is correct in #11

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    re 10 

    Most recent stuff is here:


    At last check they were down to about $10 mm in cash and there are no catalysts until during 1Q13. The name is caught up in early tax loss selling, lack of catalysts, and the move that has taken down most single digit names in October / November. 

  16. 16
    zman Says:


    Catalyst Update Part I Update – the macro stuff

    OEDV management call wrap and table 

    The Week That Was

  17. 17
    brodway Says:

    thanks for the levels Zorg. always useful info especially when certain levels are broken. so far your levels have been accurate as far as identifying the next trend. unfortunately so far they have been breaking down, but at least gives me an opportunity to act before things get more ugly. 

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    #17..thanks, I'm glad it helps….

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