29
Sep
Wrap – Week Ended 09/28/12
Comments will be included in the Monday post.
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Z, re:GENSCAPE
September 30th, 2012 at 7:30 amTheir website was down yesterday, but is now backup.
Here is infro on their weekly COAL BURN report:
http://www.genscape.com/coal-coalburn-report
and from here you can navigate to their electric power, nat gas
reporting capabilities.
It would appear they are selling timeliness of information, as much as raw data, for example they claim they monitor 900 NG pipelines in realtime.
They appear to use a patchwork combination of in-line & remote sensing. They apparently correlate their remote sensing to other less timely data [like EIA] using backcasting to develop the inferential realtime data models……..weekly coal burn as an example.
From the 'IT COULDN'T HAPPEN TO A NICER GUY DEP'T:
September 30th, 2012 at 10:39 amIranian economy edging toward collapse:
http://news.yahoo.com/israel-finance-minister-says-iran-economy-verge-collapse-110514108–business.html
Perhaps some wishful thinking on the part of Isaral, …..however, the Iranian Rial is falling again even after attempts to stabilize it over the weekend by Iran.
Mont Belvieu, Texas………..home of the largest NGL storage and processing facility in North America,
September 30th, 2012 at 10:53 amA fascinating desription this important location to the NGL business:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mont_Belvieu,_Texas
September 30th, 2012 at 11:19 amThe Azerbaijani card…….in the Iran/Israel game:
http://news.yahoo.com/insight-azerbaijan-eyes-aiding-israel-against-iran-103822527.html
September 30th, 2012 at 5:45 pmS&P 500 Futures Weekly Notes/Thoughts
Notes…Market uptrend intact from June lows. Above 50/200 MA. Trading out of balance above the minor CHVN/volume pivot at 1428. Minor support/resistance at 1424.50/1443.25. Low volume zones above and below. Far support at 1409. Far resistance at 1449.50. Short term demand negative. Breadth supportive. POMO supportive through Oct 5. $USD and Long Bond bouncing ,pressuring equities. Negative macro economic news flow. Volume and options volatility increasing.
Thoughts…. Bias to start the week is still bullish above 1428.50. Without initiative buyers above this level though I’d expect a test lower towards 1409 to find them. Market indicators are a more mixed picture this week but POMO, breadth and long term demand volume are still supportive and so the expectation is for buyers to step in at least one time on tests lower. 1397 is a key level in the intermediate term for bulls. If new buyers are found above 1428.50 early in the week, there’s little defined resistance to 1449.50. Low volume areas above and below so quick reversals on little volume are more common, as are O/N gaps.
CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
1478 CHVN
1464 Minor Resistance
1443-49.50 LVN, Minor Resistance
1428.50 CHVN. Short term volume pivot
1424.25 CLVN…Minor Support
1409 CLVN. Support. Break out levels.
1397 CHVN, Intermediate Volume Pivot,
1386 Minor CLVN, Support…low volume area below
1360-86 Low volume zone. Quick moves in either direction likely.
S&P Futures
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/ES_Composite.png
Thanks Crysball for the links and Zorg for the levels
September 30th, 2012 at 5:51 pm2 steps forward …
http://www.forexpros.com/commodities/natural-gas
September 30th, 2012 at 5:57 pmOctober POMO graph… October is front end loaded with two distinct periods in the middle of the month that will not be supportive of equities.
Readings >= 3 are very supportive especially when the market is short term extended to the downside
September 30th, 2012 at 6:07 pmReadings =< 0 are not supportive especially when market is short term extended to the upside.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/pomochart-3.png
Watching for how the new Fed QE3 programs may skew the market response to POMO actions. The Fed is not publishing a schedule of times/amounts for the QE3 program but just a purchase total for the month.
#7 Step by step in the dark……
September 30th, 2012 at 6:09 pmCrude Futures…
September 30th, 2012 at 6:15 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Crude_Composite_2.png
Nat Gas Futures
September 30th, 2012 at 6:17 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/NG_Composite.png
XLE Between two major congestion areas..weak bounce off last weeks pullback..so far
September 30th, 2012 at 6:23 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Stock_Weekly_3.png
OIH returning to major congestion. Demand volume negative on the daily and flirting with negative on the weekly. No bounce on last weeks pullback.
September 30th, 2012 at 6:26 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Stock_Weekly_3_2.png
XOP Demand volume weakening. Trading above minor support at 54.16.
September 30th, 2012 at 6:33 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Stock_Weekly_3_4.png
John – Have you found a Johnson Rice schedule yet?
September 30th, 2012 at 6:40 pmFCG Up trend off the June lows still intact….traded back to middle of long and intermediate volume base on recent mkt weakness. Demand volume flat short term, going positive on the monthly time frame.
September 30th, 2012 at 6:42 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Stock_Weekly_3_5.png
$US Dollar
September 30th, 2012 at 6:50 pmRejecting major acceptance at 80 as too low on strong short term demand volume.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/DX_2.png
Euro…breaking support at 1.284….quite a large gap to next support area at 1.267
September 30th, 2012 at 6:55 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Euro_Composite.png
15…Here you go Z.. Johnson Rice schedule and webcast link;
September 30th, 2012 at 7:13 pmhttp://wsw.com/webcast/jr13/
Interesting TPLM Dow Jones news out re bakken pipeline venture with First Reserve, don't have a link on that yet.
September 30th, 2012 at 7:21 pmHere's the TPLM story from WSJ online;
By Jerry A. DiColo
Private-equity firm First Reserve Corp. has formed a new venture to build pipelines throughout the booming oil fields of North Dakota, an investment aimed at resolving transportation bottlenecks plaguing energy producers in the region.
September 30th, 2012 at 7:39 pmThe $23 billion energy-focused firm has committed $150 million to a joint venture with Denver-based oil-and-gas producer Triangle Petroleum Corp. (TPLM) to launch a pipeline and transportation company focused on the Bakken Shale, an unconventional oil and gas play that has turned North Dakota into the second-largest energy producing state in the country, after Texas.
The new company, Caliber Midstream Partners LP, will begin by constructing pipeline gathering systems with a capacity of 10,000 barrels of oil and 15 million cubic feet of natural gas per day by the middle of next year, connecting more than 100 far-flung oil and natural-gas well sites to rail terminals.
The company plans to add additional pipelines that will link wells to major interstate pipelines that cut through the region.
"There are hundreds of thousands of miles of pipe that need to be built. It's a massive opportunity," said Jon Samuels, Chief Executive of Triangle, which contributed $30 million as well as operational personnel, and will have a 50% voting stake in the new company. "You could have stable market share and still have 100% growth per year."
Small producers as well as oil majors such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) have rushed to North Dakota to take advantage of the energy boom, creating thousands of new jobs in construction, trucking and other services in a sparsely-populated corner of the Midwest. But vast distances and a lack of infrastructure to move oil and gas has slowed progress in many promising areas.
"The existing infrastructure is just trucks," said Mark Florian, managing director of First Reserve and head of the firm's $1.2 billion Energy Infrastructure Fund. "I was up in the Bakken with the team a month and a half ago. There are wheat fields as far as the eye can see, dotted with oil wells and nothing in between. There is nothing connecting any of it."
Caliber isn't expecting any issues due to environmental permitting.
Triangle, a small exploration and production company, is expecting to pump as much as 3,600 barrels a day by January. Currently, the company's wells can profitably pump oil with prices above $70 a barrel. When the new pipelines are in place, Mr. Samuels expects the company will break even as long as prices stay at $45 a barrel.
Thanks much John. They weren't kidding about vertical integration. They're also building frac and rig crew condos.
September 30th, 2012 at 7:46 pmShell shuts 150,000 BOPD Nigerian Pipeline.
September 30th, 2012 at 8:25 pmhttp://news.yahoo.com/royal-dutch-shell-shuts-down-nigeria-oil-pipeline-223503970–finance.html
Yes Z, am very impressed with the TPLM guys.
September 30th, 2012 at 9:50 pm6:47AM Northern Oil & Gas President Ryan Gilbertson resigns to pursue peronal interests, effective Oct 1 (NOG) 16.99 : In connection with his resignation, Gilbertson entered into a consulting agreement pursuant to which he is expected to serve as an advisor to the co's Board of Directors through October 2014. Co does not currently expect to fill the position of President at the co.
October 1st, 2012 at 7:04 amNot that yahoo message boards are fountains of true information, but the MMR board has posts that appear to be based on good info and seem to point to a November time frame for DJ.
October 1st, 2012 at 7:36 amThe Monday post is up.
October 1st, 2012 at 7:41 am