29
Sep

Wrap – Week Ended 09/28/12

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Comments will be included in the Monday post. 

27 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 09/28/12”

  1. 1
    crysball Says:

    Z, re:GENSCAPE
    Their  website  was  down  yesterday,  but  is  now   backup.
    Here  is  infro  on  their  weekly  COAL BURN report:
    http://www.genscape.com/coal-coalburn-report
    and  from  here  you can  navigate  to  their   electric  power, nat gas
    reporting  capabilities.
    It  would  appear  they  are  selling  timeliness  of  information, as  much  as  raw  data, for example they claim  they  monitor  900 NG pipelines   in  realtime.
    They  appear  to  use  a  patchwork combination  of   in-line & remote  sensing.   They  apparently correlate  their  remote  sensing  to  other  less timely data [like EIA]  using  backcasting  to develop  the inferential  realtime  data models……..weekly  coal  burn as an example.
     

  2. 2
    crysball Says:

    From the 'IT  COULDN'T  HAPPEN  TO  A  NICER GUY  DEP'T:
    Iranian  economy   edging  toward collapse:
    http://news.yahoo.com/israel-finance-minister-says-iran-economy-verge-collapse-110514108–business.html
     
    Perhaps  some  wishful  thinking  on  the part  of  Isaral, …..however, the Iranian Rial  is falling  again   even  after  attempts   to  stabilize  it  over the weekend  by Iran.

  3. 3
    crysball Says:

    Mont  Belvieu,   Texas………..home of the  largest  NGL  storage  and processing  facility  in   North America,
    A fascinating desription   this  important  location  to  the NGL  business:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mont_Belvieu,_Texas

  4. 4
    crysball Says:

     
    The Azerbaijani  card…….in  the  Iran/Israel  game:
    http://news.yahoo.com/insight-azerbaijan-eyes-aiding-israel-against-iran-103822527.html

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P 500 Futures Weekly Notes/Thoughts
    Notes…Market uptrend intact from June lows.  Above 50/200 MA.  Trading out of balance above the minor CHVN/volume pivot at 1428. Minor support/resistance at 1424.50/1443.25. Low volume zones above and below.   Far support at 1409. Far resistance at 1449.50. Short term demand negative. Breadth supportive. POMO supportive through Oct 5.  $USD and Long Bond bouncing ,pressuring equities. Negative macro economic  news flow.  Volume and options volatility increasing.
    Thoughts…. Bias to start the week is still bullish above 1428.50. Without initiative buyers above this level  though I’d expect a test lower towards 1409 to find them.  Market indicators are a more mixed picture this week but POMO, breadth and long term demand volume are still supportive and so the expectation is for buyers to step in at least one time on tests lower. 1397 is a key level in the intermediate term for bulls.  If new buyers are found above 1428.50 early in the week, there’s little defined resistance to 1449.50. Low volume areas above and below so quick reversals on little volume are more common, as are O/N gaps.
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
    1478           CHVN
    1464             Minor Resistance
    1443-49.50     LVN, Minor Resistance
    1428.50    CHVN. Short term volume pivot
    1424.25     CLVN…Minor Support
    1409         CLVN. Support. Break out levels.
    1397        CHVN, Intermediate Volume Pivot,
    1386         Minor CLVN, Support…low volume area below
    1360-86   Low volume zone.  Quick moves in either direction likely.
    S&P Futures
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/ES_Composite.png

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Thanks Crysball for the links and Zorg for the levels

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    2 steps forward …

    http://www.forexpros.com/commodities/natural-gas

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    October POMO graph… October is front end loaded with two distinct periods in the middle of the month that will not be supportive of equities.

    Readings >= 3 are very supportive especially when the market is short term extended to the downside
    Readings =< 0 are not supportive especially when market is short term extended to the upside.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/pomochart-3.png
    Watching for how the new Fed QE3 programs may skew the market response to  POMO actions. The Fed is not publishing a schedule of times/amounts for the QE3 program but just a purchase total for the month.

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    #7  Step by step in the dark……

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Futures…
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Crude_Composite_2.png

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Futures
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/NG_Composite.png

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE  Between two major congestion areas..weak bounce off last weeks pullback..so far
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Stock_Weekly_3.png

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    OIH returning to major congestion. Demand volume negative on the daily and flirting with negative on the weekly. No bounce on last weeks pullback.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Stock_Weekly_3_2.png

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP Demand volume weakening. Trading above minor support at 54.16.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Stock_Weekly_3_4.png

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    John – Have you found a Johnson Rice schedule yet?

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    FCG  Up trend off the June lows still intact….traded back to middle of long and intermediate volume base on recent mkt weakness. Demand volume flat short term, going positive on the monthly time frame. 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Stock_Weekly_3_5.png

  17. 17
    Zorgnak Says:

    $US Dollar
    Rejecting major acceptance at 80 as too low on strong short term demand volume.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/DX_2.png

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    Euro…breaking support at 1.284….quite a large gap to next support area at 1.267
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/30/Euro_Composite.png

  19. 19
    john11 Says:

    15…Here you go Z.. Johnson Rice schedule and webcast link;
    http://wsw.com/webcast/jr13/

  20. 20
    john11 Says:

    Interesting TPLM Dow Jones news out re bakken pipeline venture with First Reserve, don't have a link on that yet.

  21. 21
    john11 Says:

    Here's the TPLM story from WSJ online;
     
    By Jerry A. DiColo

    Private-equity firm First Reserve Corp. has formed a new venture to build pipelines throughout the booming oil fields of North Dakota, an investment aimed at resolving transportation bottlenecks plaguing energy producers in the region.
    The $23 billion energy-focused firm has committed $150 million to a joint venture with Denver-based oil-and-gas producer Triangle Petroleum Corp. (TPLM) to launch a pipeline and transportation company focused on the Bakken Shale, an unconventional oil and gas play that has turned North Dakota into the second-largest energy producing state in the country, after Texas.
    The new company, Caliber Midstream Partners LP, will begin by constructing pipeline gathering systems with a capacity of 10,000 barrels of oil and 15 million cubic feet of natural gas per day by the middle of next year, connecting more than 100 far-flung oil and natural-gas well sites to rail terminals.
    The company plans to add additional pipelines that will link wells to major interstate pipelines that cut through the region.
    "There are hundreds of thousands of miles of pipe that need to be built. It's a massive opportunity," said Jon Samuels, Chief Executive of Triangle, which contributed $30 million as well as operational personnel, and will have a 50% voting stake in the new company. "You could have stable market share and still have 100% growth per year."
    Small producers as well as oil majors such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) have rushed to North Dakota to take advantage of the energy boom, creating thousands of new jobs in construction, trucking and other services in a sparsely-populated corner of the Midwest. But vast distances and a lack of infrastructure to move oil and gas has slowed progress in many promising areas.
    "The existing infrastructure is just trucks," said Mark Florian, managing director of First Reserve and head of the firm's $1.2 billion Energy Infrastructure Fund. "I was up in the Bakken with the team a month and a half ago. There are wheat fields as far as the eye can see, dotted with oil wells and nothing in between. There is nothing connecting any of it."
    Caliber isn't expecting any issues due to environmental permitting.
    Triangle, a small exploration and production company, is expecting to pump as much as 3,600 barrels a day by January. Currently, the company's wells can profitably pump oil with prices above $70 a barrel. When the new pipelines are in place, Mr. Samuels expects the company will break even as long as prices stay at $45 a barrel.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Thanks much John. They weren't kidding about vertical integration. They're also building frac and rig crew condos. 

  23. 23
    crysball Says:

    Shell  shuts  150,000 BOPD   Nigerian   Pipeline.
    http://news.yahoo.com/royal-dutch-shell-shuts-down-nigeria-oil-pipeline-223503970–finance.html

  24. 24
    john11 Says:

    Yes Z, am very impressed with the TPLM guys.

  25. 25
    DaveH Says:

    6:47AM Northern Oil & Gas President Ryan Gilbertson resigns to pursue peronal interests, effective Oct 1 (NOG) 16.99 : In connection with his resignation, Gilbertson entered into a consulting agreement pursuant to which he is expected to serve as an advisor to the co's Board of Directors through October 2014. Co does not currently expect to fill the position of President at the co.

  26. 26
    skimo Says:

    Not that yahoo message boards are fountains of true information, but the MMR board has posts that appear to be based on good info and seem to point to a November time frame for DJ.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    The Monday post is up.

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