Wrap – Week Ended 9/21/12

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Wrap comments will be included in the Monday post other than one quick one. Note the CFTC non-commercial (speculator) oil net long position moved higher, not lower this week. There was much speculation regarding the cause of the flash dip on Monday in crude prices. In the Wednesday post we commented on one talking head going as far as to call the reasoning their liquidation.  With net long position at highs not seen since March, well, I have to laugh even more at their comment.  Next week look for IPAA coverage, a new long idea, and a coal sector update.  

In cased you missed the recent free Seeking Alpha Stuff:

And a couple of "I'm not playing this long/avoidance" calls that continue to work lower

Enjoy the weekend.

15 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 9/21/12”

  1. 1
    mimster90 Says:

    Re-reading your latest TPLM seeking alpha piece I loved the phrase “big boy pants timeline…”

  2. 2
    Popeye Says:

    OT: STSI SC appeal pulled?

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futures Weekly Notes/Thoughts
    Notes…Low volume consolidation within a low volume zone from 1434-1466. Minor test lower to 1443.50 last week. Market building value/acceptance between 1449.50-1464. Longer demand volume, breadth, POMO, currencies supportive. Shorter time frames working off short term extremes.
     Thoughts…. Market still has an intermediate bullish bias above 1397. Market becoming more edgeless with tight balanced trade only able to test lower to 1443.25, which was quickly bought.  Seeing room to melt higher to CHVN at 1478.25 if demand volume increases again. To the downside I see large and relatively untested low volume areas offering  little support if market selling volume increases. I had expected a test and a bounce last week. Got a very  small test and small bounce that neither shook out many or tested higher leaving  1464 and 1449.50 as the early levels next week to further gauge market intentions.  
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
    1478           CHVN
    1434-1466 Low volume area..little defined support or resistance nearby.
    1449.50     LVN, Minor support , 1443.25 minor support  
    1428.50    CHVN. Short term volume pivot
    1409         CLVN. Minor Support. Break out levels.
    1397        CHVN,Inermediate Volume Pivot,
    1386         Minor CLVN, Support…low volume area below
    1360-86   Low volume zone.  Quick moves in either direction likely.
    S&P Futures

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE Pulled back to the CHVN at 74.80. 
    Define support at 72.87. Resistance 76. Demand volume remains positive longer term.

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    Working off recent short term extremes. Support at 55. Resistance at 58. Demand volume remains positive in all time frames.

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil futures… Short and long term acceptance above at 96 and 99. Bounce after high volume test of  key support at 91.50. Demand volume flat longer term.
    Recent extremes were to 100 and 91.50. Expect price will tighten back towards the middle of that range.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 1 – they have definitely pulled on their big boy pants, not enough analysts/investors get that yet. 

    Zorg – thanks for the levels as always. 

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Futures
    This longer term volume profile shows the gradual rejection at the price/volume extremes this year as the market aligns with  longer term acceptance at 2.844. 2.72 is near support. 2.89 near resistance. Volume profile and demand volume supports continued testing higher.

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    #7 as always..you are welcome..thank you

  10. 10
    Pati Says:

    #2 – OT:  STSI:   Petition dismissed – Rule 46

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas futures popping to resistance at 3.07 in overnight trading..

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    re 11 – I think you may be Novembers to Octobers there. 

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    #12  oops..thanks for catching that..detele and or disregard #11

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    re 13 – I thought the same thing for a minute, had two systems reporting it two different ways. 

  15. 15
    choices Says:

    OT-Gazprom-Putin's ATM might be feeling some pricing pressure-may be cause for a glimmer of optimism for Europe:

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