15
Sep

Wrap – Week Ended 9/14/12

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Comments to be incorporated into the Monday post.  If you can't view the right edge of the chart, click on it. 

10 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 9/14/12”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

     
     
    S&P 500 Futures Weekly Notes/Thoughts
    Notes…Low volume area(1434-1468)filled. Volume gap below to 1434. Congestion starts at 1468. Major CHVN 1478.25. Short term volume pivot/CHVN 1428.50. Intermediate volume pivot/Major CHVN 1397. Demand volume positive in all time frames and confirming recent swing highs, extended. Highest reading in last ten years on daily time frame. Low absolute volume. Breadth supportive,extended.84% US stocks above 50 day MA,78% above 20 day MA. %Decliner and  %Declining volume extended. POMO neutral, turns supportive  from 9/19 through the end of the month. Currencies supportive, extended $USD resistance 79.07. Sector rotation supportive, Financials/ Tech extended).
     Thoughts…Market price spike filled the wide low volume area to congestion leaving unfinished business below. Expecting low volume area to be tested to the downside early in the week and bought into the end of the month.  Areas of interest on a pullback are the short term volume pivot at 1428.50 and the minor CLVN at 1409. Expecting at least one more attempt at new swing highs with 1478 as most likely target. Intermediate bias remains bullish above 1397. A break of 1392 would negate these expectations.
     
     
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
    1478           CHVN
    1436-1466 Low volume area. Little market volume structure.
    1428         CHVN. Short term volume pivot
    1409         CLVN. Minor Support. Break out levels.
    1397         CHVN, Intermediate Volume Pivot,
    1386         Minor CLVN, Support…low volume area below
    1360-86   Low volume zone.  Quick moves in either direction likely.
    S&P Futures
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/15/ES_Composite.png

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

     
     
    XLE  Big Cap energy breaking out above long and intermediate term volume base at 75.98.
    Expect  test of low volume spike range to get bought with at least one more attempt at new swing highs. Areas of interest… near support 75.98, CHVN/volume pivot 74.25 and far support  72.87 in case of deeper test (less likely). Demand volume is extended short term but still positive and improving longer term.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/15/Stock_Weekly_2.png

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    XOP Weekly
     High demand volume/low absolute volume  price spike through resistance at 58.21. Expecting spike range to be tested and bought. First area of interest  is 58.21 on any pullback.  Expect resistance to be tested (62) at least once. Long term demand volume is positive and improving. A break below  54.97 would negate these expectations. I'll post individual E&P stock support areas of interest on Monday am.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/15/Stock_Weekly_2_2.png

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    OIH
     Expecting retest to 42-ish. Demand volume positive in all time frames. Extended short term.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/15/Stock_Weekly_2_3.png

  5. 5
    brodway Says:

    Happy to see higher resistance levels at play here Zorg.  I still believe energy has some catching up to do given the price of oil. Furthermore, if some of the observations i've been reading is correct (arctic ice melt), we may have a pretty cold winter which should boost the price of gas as well. It may turn out to be the most profitable time to be invested in energy. 

  6. 6
    brodway Says:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/12/arctic-ice-melt-extreme-weather_n_1878833.html
    an interesting read regarding above.

  7. 7
    DaveH Says:

    Interesting article on Shell's Alaska drilling.   If I recall correctly the equipment is owned by RIG.  
     
    http://www.nationofchange.org/calling-conditions-benign-shell-halts-offshore-arctic-drilling-after-one-day-because-massive-ice-she

  8. 8
    crysball Says:

    Phillips  Los  Angeles  refinery   loses   power………………had  to  shut  down.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Crude holding $99

    http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    $USD trading off and below resistance at 79.07
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/16/DX.png

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