Wrap – Week Ended 05/04/12

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8 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 05/04/12”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futs Key Weekly Volume Profile Levels/Scenarios
    On Friday the market broke key suppport at 1389 and the 50 Day MA, which brought in a cascade of mechanical and TA selling into
    the low volume void below driving the market back to balance at 1362-65.
    1360.50 and 1369.50 are near potential minor support and resistance. Suspect how these two areas are treated
    to be key to next week's early direction.
    Below 1360.50 I expect the market to explore the lower end of the current balance area to 1353.50 with potential
    support at 1347.50. Significant support  at 1342. Major Acceptance at 1334.50 comes into play on a strong sell off.
    Above 1369.50 is the low volume area where outsized moves and gaps in either direction have been common since March.
    With a break of 1369.50  I'd expect a burst of short covering carrying as high as 1380-83.
    My 1st expectation though is for more selling early in the week ahead. Watch 1360.50 for confirmation.
    Should the market close lower on Monday it will be short term oversold above it's 200 Day MA. Stats favor a bounce to above the 10 Day MA. 
    With POMO activity hitting a peak for May on the 9th and then again on the 11th through 14th,
    I may consider a short term trade later in the week at support on weakness and scale out heavily into strength.
    If a short covering pop above 1369 occurs I will use the opportunity to further reduce market risk.
    The market has been in a range bound noisy mode since March.  To my eye the longer term weekly and monthly charts are
    both show weakening volume demand that did not confirm the recent move to highs or offer support for further attempts.
    Sunday O/N session will likely put quite a spin in all of this…………May have to adjust according to where we open.
    CLVN= Low Volume Rejection Area – CHVN = High Volume Acceptance/Congestion

    1389.50    CLVN
    1380-83    CHVN
    1369.50    CLVN
    1365          Major CHVN

    1360.50    CLVN,
    1353.50    CHVN, Bottom of Recent Acceptance
    1347.50    Major CLVN, Below this level, acceptance at 1334 becomes the likely downside target.
    1342          CLVN


  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE  Energy stopped at key support Friday. This is the 4th trip down to this level in the high 67s. Mind the volume void below.
    A break of the 67 zone works to the high 65s. , Resistance is at 70.  Price s oversold but trading
    below down-sloping 200 and 50 day MAs. IF/when a bounce occurs the setup doesn't favor a long or strong rally.

    E&P Up/Dn Volume Ratios and % Decliners in oversold territory but price is below a down-sloping 200 and 50 MA. Bounces tend to
    be weak and short when this is the case. Mean reversion trades favor the short side.
    Longer Term Breadth EMA's have turned over but are not at oversold levels yet. Bottom panel shows volume flows into
     the inverse energy ETFs are rising to levels that can fuel a short squeeze in up-trends but can continue higher in downtrends. Bulls need to see these

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    Euro…..A very light week of US econ reports leaves the European drama front and center. Watching the Euro to see how much of this drop is baked in before the elections this weekend..
    Stock market bulls looking for a move back to acceptance at 131.50. A move below 1.30 would not be helpful.

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Futs…Traded below major acceptance at 100 for the first time since Feb.

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    Euro….went straight to test the CLVN at 1.2988….

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    At lower support. Expectation is for a rise from here.

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs..ran through support at 1346.50, tagged 1342.50 support and is rising back now. 1353 Resistance now. My 1st scenario for  Monday/Tuesday is playing out  in 60 minutes in thin Futures trading with no cash markets open.  About as bad as expected… but not done yet…

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    re 7 – agreed, France going socialist and anti-austerity making the rest of Europe quake. 

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