Thursday Morning – Oil Review Plus Natural Gas Preview Plus A Mess O’ Energy Earnings

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Market Sentiment Watch: Jobless claims came in better than expected but with April payrolls tomorrow we should be set for another slow day today after ISM. In today's post please find comments on a lot of 1Q12 earnings announcements. Just the highest of highlights for the un-owned names and potentially a little more depth on the ZLT names reporting today. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • Jobless claims came in at 365,000 vs 378,000 expected and 388,000 last week, 
  • We get ISM nonmanufacturing at 10 am EST (F = 55.4%, last read was 56%)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  4. Oil Inventory Review
  5. Stuff We Care About Today –  EXXI, PVA, CLR, EPL,  Earnings Briefs ( GMXR, DSX, PXD) 
  6. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to

Holdings Watch:

ZMT (Zman Medium Term portfolio):

  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • ZTRADE - ZMT - EXXI - High Risk Trade

      ZMT - Added (5) EXXI May $40 Calls for $0.65 (high side of mid) with the stock at $37.70. Reports FY3Q12 tomorrow, expecting a slightly gassier quarter but again near best in show EBITDA per BOE performance and a strong rate. Not expecting big news yet from Davy Jones 1 but a solid progress report to indicate they are on track for a second attempt there. The name remains cheap and oily and start to finish of their FY2012 year I expect them to come close to  a 50% bump in production even as they generate excess cash and pay day debt more rapidly than expected.   I continue to the own the Core and Trading share positions in the ZLT. 

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • Yesterday’s Trades:

    • PVA – Added to the core position at just under $5.02 average. Earnings tonight. Have room to add more if it dips, same comments in today's holding watch from yesterday's trade apply. This will be a bumpy road. but expecting strong well results and continuation of gas to oil transition to be further evidenced this quarter. New area (Lavaca) wells could add some spice to the story as well. 

The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil eased $0.94 to close at $105.22 yesterday, falling first with a weak equity market and subsequently with a large build at Cushing. My sense is Cushing will reverse with Seaway and seasonality as everyone expects and that this strong rally in local inventories is largely a function of "getting in front of Seaway" and nothing more. This morning crude is trading flattish. 

Natural gas fell back $0.12 to close the day at $2.25 yesterday. The road to recovery is going to be bumpy and not vertical and the kind of rally we have had over the last week is not sustainable without further data support.  This morning gas is trading up five cents. 

Natural Gas Storage Preview:

Street is looking for a 26 BCF injection for today's report.

  • Last Week: +47 Bcf
  • Last Year: +72 Bcf
  • 5 Year Average: +82 Bcf
  • 10 year Hi: +107 Bcf
  • 10 year Low: +38 Bcf

Oil Inventory Review



Stuff We Care About Today

Conference Call Watch (all times EST):

  • EXXI - 9 am
  • PVA - 10 am
  • CLR - 10 am - I will listen to the replay
  • EPL - 10 am - this one too

EXXI Reports Solid FY3Q12 Results

The 1Q12 Numbers: Costs showed slight improvement on LOE and a small expansion on a per unit basis on G&A which should reverse back out with volumes over the next two quarters. Natural gas accounted for 31% of volumes vs 28% last year, a temporary increase due to one prospect coming on  that management had telegraphed on the last call and in the intervening presentations. As gas prices fell, and despite being more of the mix, revenues from gas fell to 6% from 7% last quarter, helping revenues to the slight miss outlined in the table above. 


  • Current production of 52,350 BOEpd
  • Davy Jones - nothing new to report, reiterated they expect a second shot at a flow test before June 30. 
  • EBITDA per BOE retreated from a recent company high $57.43 / BOE last quarter to $52.23 this quarter as natural gas temporarily made up more of their mix. 
  • Reinstated quarterly dividend. 
  • No guidance given but look for them to reaffirm a high 50's MBOEpd FY 2012 (June 30) rate. 

Nutshell: Miss but not a significant one and volumes hit another new company record.  Everything remains on track with their bread and butter program (better than on track as they continue to pick through Exxon's underexploited leavings) and while there is nothing new to report on the ultra deep program at this time we are (once again) just a few weeks out from a flow test that should take "proof of concept" to a new level for the UD. Cheap on a flowing barrel basis but not surprising for a Shelf name.   On Street TEV to EBITDA the name trades at 4.7x and 4.0 for 2012 and 2013 respectively.I continue to own Core and Trading positions in the ZLT and some near dated calls in the ZMT.


PVA Reports Nice 1Q12 Beat; Reiterates Guidance; Reports Strong EFS New Area Results

The 1Q12 Numbers: There was no specific guidance for 1Q volumes but they came in up 2% which is a nice change of pace from the almost continuous slide since the middle of 2010. Liquids volumes rose from 37% to 42% of volumes sequentially as they continued to add Eagle Ford wells to the production pool (running 88% oil plus NGL's plus gas). 


  • Balance sheet:
    • 46% debt to cap 
    • Borrowing based reduced to $300 mm as expected
    • $22 mm cash on hand and $151 unused revolver
    • They've started the process to sell non core Mid con assets with reserves of 123 Bcfe (46% liquids). Could be looking at $150 to $200 mm in gross proceeds. 
  • Gonzales County, their core Eagle Ford play,
    • now has data on 40 of 45 PVA wells drilled to date and IPs still average over 1,000 BOEpd
    • with 30 day rates on a 35 well subset with enough time to measure running 650 BOEpd (down from a prior 675 but that's not significant)
    • added 9 net wells in the quarter with 2 rigs running in the county that should run all year. 
  • In Lavaca county on their new acreage
    • the first two wells had IPs of 922 (first 9 days on) and 709 BOEpd (first 5 days and 1,600' short of the planned lateral length) respectively and a third well is drilling and three more wells planned for this year. 
    • Strong early results here and important since the Lavaca position has the potential to boost their location count by 50%. 
    • Favorite quote watch:  "Taking into account the lateral lengths, both wells appear to have similar production characteristics during the initial flowback of frac fluids and are comparable to well results experienced in nearby Gonzales County. "
  • Eagle Ford production is now 5,800 BOEpd net. 


  • Volumes Unchanged. Still looking for a decline of roughly 11% in volumes and for 43% of production to come from liquids on the year.
  • EBITDAX guidance range boosted slightly:
    • from a prior range of $200 to $240 mm
    • to a new range of $220 to $240 mm 

Nutshell: Strong quarter. Good to see a sequential uptick in volumes, good to see them make their target for liquids as a percentage of that mark.   I continue to own the name in the ZLT with Core and Trading positions. 

CLR Reports Strong 1Q12 Results; Ups Guidance

The 1Q12 Numbers: Strong. Volumes right in line with expectations, costs falling on a per unit basis allowing more to flow through from slightly higher than expected revenues to the EBITDA line. 

Guidance: Going up

  • Volume guidance leaps:
    • from an expected range of 37 to 40%
    • to a range of 47 to 50%
    • the mid point takes them to 92,000 BOEpd for 2012
    • the increase in their range isn't surprising since 1Q12 levels would have roughly equaled the full year 2012 expectation. 
  • They're bumping capex to achieve this, going from prior budget $1.75 B to $2.3 B


  • Bakken / Three Forks
    • 48,024 BOEpd, up 16%, up nearly 7,000 barrels just last quarter
    • 56% of total company production
    • Completed 36 net wells during 1Q12 (6 of them in Montana)
    • 24 rigs running (21 ND, 3 MT) ... notably, CLR mentioned no need to add more rigs to accommodate the extra spending here due to faster spud to spud times. 
    • Would like to hear more details on their Montana acreage on the call - could help to get a little more respect for TPLM and SSN who are adjacent to CLR's recent effort. 
    • Starting to see more batch completions of ECO-pads (4 wells apiece)
    • Nothing new on second bench Three Forks tests in the press release.
  • Anadarko Woodford - Cana Play

    • 728 BOE average IP during the quarter
    • 2 rigs in the NE part of the play which is oilier than the SE
    • and 8 rigs in the SE, not quite sure why they don't migrate NE for now as this is gassier ... it's also where NFX is. 
  • Niobrara
    • Big well - Buchner 1-2H IP of 910 BOEpd (90% oil) in Weld County, CO
    • This improved 
  • Per unit costs continue to plummet with rising volumes. 

Nutshell: Another strong quarter and raising guidance on a balance sheet that can easily withstand a bit more spending. We recent took a half core position in CLR to replace a years old position in WLL, trading out of a more value name in the Bakken to a higher priced but also faster paced group leader. Never cheap, CLR is trading at 10.6x 2012 and 8.3x 2013 Street EBITDA. The back of the envelope overnight math would suggest there is upside of $270 mm to the Street estimate for 2012 EBITDA listed in the table below owing to lower costs and higher volumes and using my price deck so its not quite as expensive as it looks and that comes from carrying forward the current mix of 70% oil which I expect to actually head higher again in 2H12 but I'll wait for more color from the call before making final tweaks to my thinking here.  I will be looking to add more in the near term. Should be one of the better calls of the quarter and if the name opens lower on the "earnings miss" headlines I have seen overnight I may just pick off some cheaper shares. 


EPL Reports 1Q12 Bottom Line Miss; Guiding to Upper End of Prior Range For Full Year

The 1Q12 Numbers: Volumes came in at the upper end of the expected range but EBITDA fell short in part due to higher LOE and G&A/BOE in the quarter and an unexpectedly flatter revenue/BOE trend. 


  • Net debt to cap is 19% and they are easily underspending cash flow. 
  • Doubling the buyback to $40 mm
  • They increased the 2012 budget from $168 mm to $184 mm to add some late-in-the-year oil projects which may not go over well but again, they are underspending and I'd rather see more of this and less talk of buybacks and dividends so that we get a headstart on 2013's program. 

Guidance: Management expects full year 2012 to fall in the middle to upper end of the prior guidance range. 

Nutshell: Hiccup of a quarter. Volumes were well above mid point of guidance but given that strength, revenues were soft. Costs were up slightly but not meaningfully.  The company is guiding liquids slightly higher in 2Q and then significantly higher in the second half of the year.   I continue to own the name in the ZLT. 

Very Brief Earnings Briefs (all times EST)


  • Oil production is increasing but EBITDA is falling like a stone as gas production plummets. 
  • I will circle back to this one with the idea of a trading play in the next couple of weeks. 
  • CC at 9 am



  • In line production, better than expected costs
  • Production mix 30% oil, 14% NGL's with liquids continuing to grow
  • Full year guidance remains the same for production and budget. 
  • Little if anything really new in the operations update other than they will go from 6 to 5 rigs in the Eagle Ford and from 3 to 4 rigs in the Williston. 
  • CC at 10 am 

DSX - haven't yet looked but time to start paying attention to this group I think. 

  • CC at 9 am



  • In line quarter
  • Production up 10,000 BOEpd (+7%) sequentially on back of Eagle Ford, Permian (Spraberry), Barnett Combo
  • Reiterated guidance fo 23 to 27% and 20+% CAGR through 2014
  • CC at 10 am  

Other Stuff

  • ROYT priced an expanded offering (was to 17.5 mm units, came with 18.5) at the middle of the range at $20
  • FSLR reports after the close today and holds its CC at 4:30 pm EST. 
  • Tomorrow we get earnings from SWN and KOG.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • TBA in comments. 

226 Responses to “Thursday Morning – Oil Review Plus Natural Gas Preview Plus A Mess O’ Energy Earnings”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures Short Term Areas Of Interest ..5/3 8:45am ..S&P Futs @ 1402 Homework Notes.
    1389 remains the key support area for this current range. Yesterday it rejected the test with steady
    buying back into acceptance above 1393. Bias remains bullish above 1393 and more so above 1397.75.
    1402-03 first upside resistance with 1409 next sticking point. 1412 offers congestion for any break out attempts from recent high.
    Upside target at 1415.
    Market showing acceptance above 1393. Bearish bias below 1393. Generally choppy trading between
    1393 and 1403
    S&P Futures


    CLVN= Low Volume Rejection Area – CHVN = High Volume Acceptance/Congestion – VPOC = Most Accepted Session Price
    NVPOC = Previous Session Balance  – OTF = Other Time Frame Money (Big)
    CLVN= Low Volume Rejection Area – CHVN = High Volume Acceptance/Congestion – VPOC = Most Accepted Session Price
    1419.75    Resistance, Major CLVN
    1413          Congestion, Major CHVN, 1415 NVPOC
    1409          Failed LVN on retest of highs on Tuesday
    1406.50    Minor Resistance,Minor CLVN, Recent overhead supply recedes to 1412
    1402-3      Resistance/Congestion,Tues VPOC 1402.25
    1401          Minor Resistance, CLVN
    1398          Range Acceptance,CHVN, Volume Pivot Point
    1394.50    Minor Support, CLVN
    1392.75    MCHVN,  Minor Support 91.25
    1389.50    Support, 4/30 Low, 4/24 breakout
    1387.50    Acceptance, Congestion, CHVN

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    Pre-Mkt Volume quiet…
    CHK volume 25% of average

  3. 3
    elduque Says:

    Hey its time to trade, listen to conference calls, and basically enjoy the day. 
    TED at .39
    BDI up 8 to 1157
    Brent/WTI narrowing to 12.7

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    EXXI call is at 10 am EST , not 9 am as listed in the post. 


    Getting on the GMXR call

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    PVA – Howard Weil ups target from $7 to $8, stays at Market Perform though which is a weak willingness to stay asleep at the wheel despite their target. I don't know about them but I call a 60% gap between current and target a Buy. 

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PVA bonds are unch'd.  But bet they start to scootch up a bit.

  7. 7
    john11 Says:

    MHR just announced earnings and ops results release after close today with a cc at 4:15 est.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    GMXR  Notes

    – Saying their transition from Haynesville gas to Bakken went better than analysts said, chastising the analyst community now.

     – Williston notes

    – saying they are moving from worry about their position to harvesting the potential of their acreage  … that was fast … saying their position in Williams and McKenzie counties are derisked by their drilling and that of offset operators.  

    – talking IPs of last 3 wells – not talking longer term rates (not 30 day rates that they should have)

    – seeing completed well costs come down. 


    – adding 3D, talking it up without drilling … nice. 

    I'll work this up again later next week, I will not own this as a core, but from time to time it may be used as a trading vehicle around well news. 


    Bakken CWC question

    – completion costs coming down substantially … have not heard that in the Willistion from other operators. Hmmm. 

    – didn't drill pilot holes on last couple of wells, saying they will examine whether or not that's necessary (Wyominbg, Geno, step in with an opinion there but I thought spudder rigs were cheaper and streamlined drill times). 

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    re 7 – thanks.  Hypey. He must have something he wants to get off his chest or look like he just can't wait to report on. 

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    adding that, that's very lame, 15 minutes to review results?  Sheesh. 

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    #6 BOP,,,could you give me a wag on what us retailers would have to bid now to buy a few

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PVA bonds offered on the JPMo Institutional desk…
    10 3/8 offered 94 1/2
    7 1/4 offered 83
    If your broker quotes them more than 1 point higher (e.g. 95.5 for the 10 3/8s), tell him/her to work the order b/c you see them offered at (e.g. 94.5) in the street.  The bonds have been at these levels for a coupla days (at least) so if your broker quotes a lot higher, tell 'em they are not dealing fair with you.

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    #12  thanks so much

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    MHR likely to rally on suspicion Gary has something he can't wait to talk about. 

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    CLR off $3 early on the capex increase. I'll be adding soon. 

    EXXI – flat at the open from down early overnight on the slight miss

    PVA – no one paying attention to the beat yet. 

    EPL – no one paying attention yet. 

  16. 16
    Sheentaa Says:

    BOP:- those KOG Senior Notes you mentioned the other day – can't find a bid/offer anywhere. Were they a private placement ?

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    PVA – ah, there it goes. 

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Sheentaa — ahhh…. good catch.  The notes were issued as a private deal, but are now registered in euros… just not yet in dollars.  The SEC needs to "protect" us little investors.  But Europeans are free to move about the room.
    (Keep this stuff in mind, next time someone says "we don't regulate the markets enoufh!!")

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PVA and CXPO now back to neck-in-neck…
    Sometimes energy stock trade at similar prices for years… i used to watch CHK and CRK in the late 90s / early 2000's.  They would trade within a dollar price of each other… back and forth.  You could almost pair trade them ('cept that i don't pair trade).  Anyway, will be interesting to see how long the PVA/CXPO relationship lasts.

  20. 20
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI — guess someone likes the new dividend…

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    GMXR – question about the Defender well, saying the well was located where it needed to be located. 

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    re 20 – yeah, and the on target volume growth ramp. 

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    ISM in 10 minutes, NG inventories in 40 minutes

    Anyone listening to EPL, please feel free to relay notes. Same for CLR. I will be on EXXI. 

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Tiny HUSA offering shares, stock gets clobbered. 

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    RREXX – GHS takes target from $12.50 to $21, rating Buy

  26. 26
    Gtinvest Says:

    Z  I do not understand your comments on distillate demand. . Do you mean up from 2003  and 2009 but how is long term improving if year or year is dropping ?  Please explain. 

  27. 27
    Sheentaa Says:

    BOP re #18. How would I find out if/when they become available in dollars ?

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    re 26 – Improving since the 2008/2009 economic based drop in demand. See the red line chart in the distilllate section. Also, distillates are driving the final graph on Exports. 

  29. 29
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    sheentaa — good question!  Don't know.  Just ask and I'll keep checking for you.

  30. 30
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (Ya never know the SEC's timetable… they can hold up a registration just because they don't like the look of the table of contents.)

  31. 31
    elduque Says:

    Thanks for PVA!!!!

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    There's the 50 cent pop in PVA one May call holding emailer was asking me about last night, congrats on that. 

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    RMD or anyone, can you relay EPL notes

    CLR coming off the lows, I think I will listen to EXXI and then circle to CLR and then get EPL this afternoon.

    PXD = best performance of the watched but not owned on earnings on the day. 

    re 31 – yippee skippee. 

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Actually, I think I'll listen to PVA …. damn this industry needs a call coordination service.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    ISM at 53.5% vs 55.4% expected

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    PVA Notes

    Walking through the press release

    Pointing out the two Lavaca wells have high pressure / choked back significantly …  clearly the first well in Lavaca was clearly capable of IP'ing at a much higher rate. 

    Cost reduction ongoing in the EFS program – using 50/50 white sand /ceramic

    Initial Lavaca wells are 100% ceramic due to greater depth, also wells there slightly more expensive due to extra pipe string run across Austin Chalk due to higher pressure. 

    In Gonzales look for them to get well costs down into the high $7 mm range by year end. 

    – Total of 200 well locations on current EFS acreage of which they have drilled 47 well so far. 



  37. 37
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI — very bread-and-butter call… drilling development wells, tying them in, production up.  No production expected from DJ until after June 30th now.

  38. 38
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI — if they can get a production test at DJ b/f June 30th, will be able to book reserves.  Think the production test is a "slam dunk" by that time.  We shall see.  I am convinced that Mr. Murphy is sitting on top of the rig at DJ#1.

  39. 39
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI — "why reinstate the dividend?"… basically, gushing more cash than we can spend.

  40. 40
    Zorgnak Says:

    BOP..thanks..was able to get the price you suggested….

  41. 41
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Zorg — good bond-trading!  Thanks for sharing your results.

  42. 42
    tomdavis12 Says:

    EXXI – Properties available with rigs getting tight. 

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP

  44. 44
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI — sees private GoM properties they can buy.  Question:  "why would someone sell oil prospects to you?"  Answer:  "oil production o/s a lot diff than nat gas… and under this administration, you spill a cuppa oil and they can put you outta biz."

  45. 45
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P futs..bulls need to step in here at 1391.25..

  46. 46
    Zorgnak Says:

    #41,,I really appreciate your help…I'm a sheep in the bond battle

  47. 47
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Starting to hear a lot more questions about NGLs on various con calls… prices used to be about 1/2 of oil… now more like 1/3.  But it's all relative to where you sell those liquids. 

  48. 48
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    zorg — that is precisely why you have to approach a bond trading desk, swinging.  They EXPECT to be able to fleece you.  You have to prove early on that you're not Mutton.

  49. 49
    Zorgnak Says:

    Just got filled on a standing lmt order for 22.75 on WHZ…been good place to shop

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    PVA Notes

    – 70% of oil hedged at $102

    – Reaffirming guidance with minor tweaks

    – Seeing higher revenues for rest of year from oil / NGLs as part of the revenue mix and lower gas due to prices

    – EBITDAX goes up slightly

    – Capex stays the same.   Improvement in EFS program costs but they will stay same on costs due to uncertainty of cost surrounding some upcoming exploration wells (Viola lime in Mid Cont is something they will keep/drill this year even as they punt the Granite Wash)

    Q&A starting 

  51. 51
    Zorgnak Says:


  52. 52
    zman Says:

    PVA Q&A

    Viola test

    – spuds end 2Q

    – have 8,000 net acres (have not said wjhere

    – have good vertical well control

    – fractured carbonate, horizontal well

    – expecting first well to be $5 to $6 mm, eventually going to $3 to $4 mm (don't need to frac)

    – 40 gross locations, probably 200,000 BOE EUR type well.

    Funding question

    – asset sales most desirable

    – don't see using other sources of capital … in other words no equity deal.


  53. 53
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI call actually kinda boring.  Just drilling, producing, growing, gushing money.  Nothing sexy about what they are doing.  Just delivering growing value.  Yaaaaaawn.

  54. 54
    Gtinvest Says:

    NG + 28

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    PVA Q&A

    Divestiture question?  What's capex associated with this asset (mostly Granite Wash)

    – would likely sell all of it as a package 

    – PV 10 on the 3P reserves here is $210 mm   … which ties pretty well with my comments on pricing potential of this sale of $150 to $200mm.



  56. 56
    zman Says:

    re 54 – thanks for that, good number in my way of looking at the world.

    Adding a little color there:

    – The producing region actually saw a 1 Bcf draw … that's somewhat rare this time of year … hello gas fired generation in Texas!

    – We are now 48.4% above year ago levels (that's down from 55%s at the end of March 

    – and 49.9% above the 5 year average … down from 60% surplus at the end of March. 

    Two words: Flatter Slope. 

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Somebody liking something EXXI said, or is that call over yet?

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Big volume came into EXXI on that little rally off the lows. 

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Guessing call over and analysts liking what they heard, squawking it up. 

  60. 60
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI = solid execution, gushing cash, opportunities to pick up operated acres under current environment, DJ = will happen… just boring growth and solid execution.

  61. 61
    RB Says:

    re: 59….yep call over at EXXI….Schiller just great with that Texas drawl making everyone feel assured…I keep thinking I should trim there but I listen to him and keep adding

  62. 62
    Gtinvest Says:

    ref 56 , 28BCF injection is 57Bcf lower than the 5year avg injection. WOW!  At that rate in 18 weeks all the excess would be gone. 

  63. 63
    elduque Says:

    need to clear 2.39 on nat gas futures to get to the next level.

  64. 64
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Coming 'round on the outside, CXPO now making a move on front-runner PVA…

  65. 65
    RB Says:

    didn't technically understand his lecture he gave an analyst, but he said the flow test isn't important…set the bar at 15-20 million.  he then said, once he understands the permeability he will be able to set expecations re: DJ2 used the term "exactly" what to expect from DJ2

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    re 60 – thanks

    – an exit rate comments for June? 

    – did they mention oil % rising again in next two quarters



    – Viola well is going to be a catalyst well for the name. Look for results August./September. 

    –  Water cut won't be as high as Miss Lime and they expect oil cut to be 80+%

    – They can add acreage here, not a hot area yet. 

    – first well will be drilled vertical, then figure out fracture direction, then drill lateral. 

    PVA = Lots of analyst questions, tone quite positive. 

    -look for asset sale early 3Q – excellent. $200 mm-ish, would be most welcome in July. 

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    re 62 – be careful thinking that way, won't be that simple, but yes, we are going to eat into the overhang faster than many people still see to think.

  68. 68
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    May have missed an actual "Exit Rate"… but with all the production added since the end of last quarter, shure nuff sounds like 60k is in the bag.  Did anyone else hear a NUMBER? 

  69. 69
    nrgyman Says:

    MPO back to 14.60 —  looking more interesting again.  Just added more.

  70. 70
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    CLR – Not much love for it out there!

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP – I'll listen to the replay when available or do a find exit on the transcript.  EXXI pushing HOD now. 

    CLR – inching lower since ISM. Probably listen to that call 3rd. 

    EPL looks to be asleep. 

  72. 72
    RB Says:

    re: 68…he was a bit "opaque" with the number….he said the high 50's was in the bag…I took that to be avg. production myself but maybe I'm trying to see the glass too full.  as I penned down all that was coming on or had just come on in the past two weeks I came up with 22,000 bbls….so average the mid-point of that with the avg. production this qtr. and I get toward the high 50's on avg. and more than 60K as an exit rate….but please listen for yourself because I'm old and perhaps wanting to hear what I want to hear.

  73. 73
    john11 Says:

    I heard Schiller say should be around high 50's by fiscal yr-end.

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    re 70 – Guessing analysts don't care for the budget increase … generally softness from that kind of sellside discontent is short lived. But once I get to listen to the call I'll know more. 

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    re 73 – thanks, same as last quarter. In the end, the name is going from low 40s MBOEpd at the start of this fiscal year vs high 50s as we exit. 

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    PVA – just wrapping up. Happy company, happy analysts, happy me. 

  77. 77
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PVA just kicked mud in CXPO's face and is making a spirited sprint toward the finish line.  Smell of roses in the air….

  78. 78
    snoles Says:

    Thanks Z – PVA just payed for 10 years of Zman subscription.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    re 78 – Excellent … tell your friends.  I still have a limited number of subscriber slots available 😉 

  80. 80
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP regains support at 55.15 ..so far rejecting previous acceptance below as unfair low…

  81. 81
    Zorgnak Says:

    PVA..thanks Z…you're the best

  82. 82
    tomdavis12 Says:

    EXXI: Oil % at year end I heard as 75%

  83. 83
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 76:  Happy me also.  Thanks for that one Z.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Howard Weil gets the Limp-price-target-upgrade-but-staying-at-HOLD-because-60%-upside-to-our-target-doesn't-warrant-a-BUY award.  

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI — i think what kicked the stock to life (at least for me) is the fact that John said there are private deals available from operators who aren't big enough to deal with BUMMER.  Those are the type of prospects that can be purchased at attractive levels.  And that there is absolutely NO body language suggesting John will stray from his area of expertise (and pull a Tom Ward).  So, combined with excess cash, EXXI has the will, the way, and the focus to delivering.  And there is a large Value Gap between $38.40 and a valuation based on 60k flowing barrels.  Think less focus on Davy Jones… and more focus on the (tasty) bread-and-butter execution.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    re 82 – ah, thanks, helpful. They should be then pushing on highest EBITDA/BOE in the portfolio if LLS holds. 

  87. 87
    mimster90 Says:

    How much dept did EXXI pay down this quarter?

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    I have a feeling CXPO will rally again, more Woodbine results will be helpful in that. 

  89. 89
    RB Says:

    re: 82…he offered the 75% number in response to an analyst probing as to whether some big gas wells like Bullfrog might dilute their % of oil production. going forward…I didn't take it as a hard projection but rather an indication that in spite of some nice gas projects he still expected a trend toward higher overall oil production….

  90. 90
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 69:  MPO just hit 14.14 — getting close to depressed IPO price.  Added more again-picking with smaller amounts.  Looking for a bounce.

  91. 91
    tomdavis12 Says:

    85: I think John was also implying with his rig tightness comment, that small players CANNOT get their properties drilled on a timely basis therefore they are willing to take a price that EXXI thinks of as good for them.

  92. 92
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    mim — i don't think EXXI paid down any debt.  I don't think they have anything drawn on their revolver and the debt they do have is not callable yet.  Cash built up, tho… so "net debt" (debt – cash) went down.  John was asked whether he would buy back any of his bonds and he said they have better use for the moolah.  That is a good response.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    re 85 – Thanks. CC replay not yet available.  

    The recompletion program has been much better than expected.

    – Any word on difficulties solved or not at Bullfrog (seems like its a mid June even but NGt)?

    I saw Camshaft with a nice rate in the pr and then a follow on a Sparkplug (which I guess is a separate fault block but not up on that but it too has a nice expected rate).  

    Slide 5 here  


    shows 40,000 BOEpd within 2 quarters time, did they mention anything about base declines?

    Did they talk about Golden Bear? That's a big boy exploration well. 

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    NG up 8 cents post inventories, bouncing back from yesterday's dip

    I think it starts to establish a range of $2.25 to $2.50 until March data hits with an upside bias if it gets hotter faster than expected and injections continue to come in substantially flatter like they have been


  95. 95
    RB Says:

    re: 93…he said there would likely be no fisca. 6/12 production from Bullfrog…and only offered that Golden Bear was waiting on the Davy Jones rig…got the idea it may be a 2013 drill

  96. 96
    tomdavis12 Says:

    93: Golden Bear: Using rig from DJ1

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    re 95/96 – thanks – and just to be clear, their 2013 starts July 1

  98. 98
    tomdavis12 Says:

    EXXI: At IPAA John was very upset with equipment issues @ Bullfrog. Everything they had tried up til then was not working.

  99. 99
    RB Says:

    re: 97…yes, but I'm thinking Golden Bear will likely drill drill in late calendar 2012 or perhaps slip into calendar 2013

  100. 100
    nrgyman Says:

    Recent news, cc, on CLR?

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    re 98 – right, just wondering if they are not on track

    re 99 – the table on slide 5 in today's presentation would suggest  earlier but I'll listen to the call 

    CLR – still waiting on transcript or call to be available – stock still coming in, down 7% on the day, wondering if they said something negative re Cana as the extra budget is going nearly all Bakken. 

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    CLR closing on my original buy in price from the toerh day which is close to support. Looks to be a little bit of piling on here. I'm not here for the short term so I view dips like this as opportunities … highly doubtful the name is in for some sort of long term change of direction due to comments made on the call. 

  103. 103
    nrgyman Says:

    Apparently, word is that Hamm had some kind of a production participation deal (like Aubrey) and that he will exchange it for CLR shares.  Haven't verified this yet-but that is the word and may be why stock is down.

  104. 104
    irongate Says:

    anybody see this yet?
    May 3 (Reuters) – The UAE's strategic oil pipeline for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is complete and exports are expected to start within three months, UAE Oil Minister Mohammed al-Hamli said on Thursday.

  105. 105
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 103:  If any of that is true–and I still don't know that it is–I don't see any real significance to it.   Just bought some CLR.

  106. 106
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Re- – CLR The real support is at $80.45. A little to far for me if it does not hold the recent low.

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    re 103 – ah, thanks much, haven't seen that on the wires. 

    re 104 – knew it was under construction, didn't think it would handle all of their volumes, seems a little quickly done to my recollection. 

    re 106 – I'd likely be a buyer at those levels but I plan on being here at least a couple of years as this is a replacement stock for WLL. 

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    re 104 – should have read the story before response, so yes, its about half of their volumes. 

  109. 109
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    CLR – It can go up now! I am out.

  110. 110
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI — Likee-likee that Golden Bear is deferred.  It will be a monster GAS well.  And why drill your gassy assets right now?  Better to drill later… when prices are more favorable.

  111. 111
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    I am wondering if I am still logged in? Anybody out there?

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    Re 111 – red days are often more quiet. I'm hear if you have questions but am working on a few things at once at the moment. I didn't think I needed to respond to 109. 

  113. 113
    RMD Says:

    EPL  a 'we don't get no respect' kind of call.
    I get the feeling they are close to announcing some acq.s, be they $20-40mm boltons or 'we have the capacity for several [yes, several] $200-300mm acq.s'. My interpretation of the language used is that '12 is a 'pivotal year' for organic and acq. growth, but that '12 is executing their development program…while adding the acqs positioning them for '13 and beyond.
    85% success rate: 2 misses are mechanical issues like sleeve problems, will redo 1, forget the other.
    Largest component of capx increase was in-field exploration going from ~$50mm to $80mm.  Development $110 to 115mm, seismic $8 to 16mm,  P&A unch at $27mm.  Most of increase will hit ~ 4Q12. Stillall in their focus areas.
    Seismic is the real exploration for '12.  The $10.3mm in 1Q12 was for a regional study to look at the shallow, middepth (12-22m ft.) and ultradeep. Middepth not interesting with gas at these prices.
    Hit deeper zone in WD well and will test even deeper. 89 ft pay, sounds like they happy here.
    1Q shortfalls rig moves and 3rd party maintenance, out of our control.  Will make up. Sound very confident of guidance. Goal to exit over 10,000 boe/d. 2 rigs + 1 non-op new, add 3 rigs 2Q-3Q.
    Stock repurchase sounded like a symbolic sign, like the last one.  "Hard to use stock for an acq. in the $15 area'.
    Conclusion: same old, same old, nothing to get excited over, still cheap but everyone knows that.

  114. 114
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Re – 109 Of course you did not have to respond.  I a relatively new to the site and have not seen it so quiet. Me being out of CLR is a non event. May be a positive. I will buy it back when and if things become more clear.

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    re 113 – right, it was already a low priority call to follow up on today, now lower, thanks much for the deets. Unexciting but cheap. 

  116. 116
    nrgyman Says:

    Z, thoughts on KOG earnings?  Anything disappointing in this market is not investor friendly.

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    re 114 – OK. It gets more quiet in the summer and again, on red days, probably has that burn out feeling  this time of the quarter to it as well. 

    re 116 – they already preannounced a very soft volume number so if there are things people don't like it will likely come from Lynn not having fixed more than 2 of the 6 wells that had liner issues. That should be baked in. I don't expect them to lower guidance again but that could happen and many analysts and my self think that things are going to need to go very well (hitchless) to get to the low end of the annual target. Possible positives are fewer … sure would like to hear a current rate and I am sure that would be taken with a grain of salt given the last ones meant nothing in terms of the quarter's production but low rate would be a negative. High would at least help with the idea that the guidance is still doable. We are nearly half way through 2Q so people are going to ask them how, if they did less than 11,000 BOEpd in 1Q can they average 20,000 BOEpd for the year. Lynn will need to take lots of deep breaths prior to the call. 

  118. 118
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Z – Any update on CLR's conference call if and when you have it, would be great.

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    CLR – Hedgeeye saying the dip may be attributable to the acreage buy from Wheatland a couple of months ago. They disclosed it on the front end, I don't see that as a big deal. 

    I recall saying at the time something like "if this was NOG they would have gotten hammered for the move"

    But honestly, Hamm owns 68% of CLR so there are bound to be conflicts of interest with shareholders, given that he is the biggest one, they largely get overridden.

    I see nothing in any docs on a founders well program … had not heard that one before here … was it something in the Q&A that was asked NRGY. 

  120. 120
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 117:  Thanks.  KOG is trending lower and $8 looks like decent chart support and the 200 dma.  There is a gap just below $8 which would likely be a downside target.  

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    re 118 – absolutely will do, still waiting on the replay to be available or the transcript . CLR site still playing that goofy guitar riff over and over and over and over. 

  122. 122
    Randy Logan Says:

    in my home state of Indiana (not a hot bed of oil), production hit a 10 high of just under 2 million barrels in 2011

  123. 123
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Guitar riffs over and over and over that are NOT goofy (and good for lunchtime listening):

  124. 124
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 119:  I did not see the rumor in company material.  Must stress again I cannot confirm it.  I'm thinking that it might be exactly what you just described, where Hamm and some execs sold Wheatland wells to CLR for shares.  Old news.  If I hear anything else I will post it.  I do not like to or want to spread rumors and I disclosed that it was unconfirmed.  I was looking for an explanation of the abnormal selloff in CLR.  Like you said, Hamm owns 2/3 of CLR anyway so I didn't think it was going to be meaningful for the stock–other than market perception–so I bought some CLR in the cliff dive.  But it sounds to me like it could be the Wheatland deal that the 'rumor' was actually about.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    On a call, back in a bit

  126. 126
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    nrgyman and Z – Thank you for the updates. I am too new to the industry to understand entirely the news and "rumors" going on. Your coverage is much appreciated. Since I hate to loose the money I did in the initial trade, I bought back a tiny position at $83 and plan to hold. Thanks again.

  127. 127
    skibbi9 Says:

    my CLR and SSN positions getting smacked down some today.
    more than offset my small PVA position

  128. 128
    nrgyman Says:

    XOP has corrected over 50% of the move off the bottom set a week and a half ago.  Now just above chart support area near 54, where the 200 dma also exists.  Big whipsaw in the last week.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    Augusto – Always ask questions about anything you don't get about what I or someone else is saying, I type pretty fast and don't always explain what I'm thinking saying well.  There is a definitions page at upper left which helps with some of the E&P lingo but feel free to ask on any of that stuff as well.

    CLR – still no transcript, spoke with someone who was on the call. Said they thought it was a pretty good call. In the Q&A there was a caller asking Hamm's thoughts on Aubrey and trying to make something out of the Wheatland dea. On a weak group day that is helping to lower the share price. 

    Group is taking a bit of a short term beating hear. How do volumes look Zorg?  I see some biggish red moves on very little volume like BCEI again. 

    Noting SWN slightly green pre results tonight. 

    We have MHR  PR and CC after the close so I won't be on the FSLR results

    We have SWN and KOG calls in the morning. 

    Grabbing lunch and will circle back to those calls in a bit. 

  130. 130
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MHR = Gary is pretty universally held in contempt right now… can't seem to do anything to please anyone.  That's OK.  When he announces his HY debt deal, that will start the healing process.

  131. 131
    Zorgnak Says:

    Re #129 Volume is heavy and overwhelmingly to the downside..out of 84 names I'm tracking here are the stocks that are green with high volume today..so far
    IO    16.51%
    PVA    12.55%
    PXP    3.38%
    SM    0.70%
    VQ    0.27%
    USEG    0.09%

  132. 132
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs..weaker than expected..trading just above key support at 1389.. Testing now….

  133. 133
    zufall Says:

    What's up with END, Down 25% in last 2 wks ??

  134. 134
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Wow. All of a sudden they do not like EXXI as well. Tough day at the office.

  135. 135
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI = mo-mo investors got bored. 

  136. 136
    john11 Says:

    END announced in yesterdays pre-market earnings release that some issues have arisen in their planned purchase of additional North Sea interests from COP.  This is a major deal for them and casting doubts on its completion knocked the price down 25% yesterday with more today.

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    Thanks John

  138. 138
    RMD Says:

    EROC had a $45.5mm impairment charge in their E. TX mid-stream area.  Don't know EROC, but write downs in mid-stream seems suspicious.

  139. 139
    elduque Says:

    Feels like fund liquidation to me. Gold stocks all down 5% from already low prices.

  140. 140
    zman Says:

    By the way, that 28 Bcf injection was a record low for that week of the year in my storage dataset which goes back to 1994. 

  141. 141
    zman Says:

    re 139 – Sitting on hands at the moment, payrolls tomorrow. 

  142. 142
    zman Says:

    RB – I need a mudder pick for the Derby. 

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    Listening to the CLR replay now. 

  144. 144
    zman Says:

    Bakken swings to premium over WTI = LOL  


  145. 145
    Gtinvest Says:

    ref 140 ,  given the absolute differential in most recent injection and a delayed reaction to shut ins, well completions tapering off, electircal demand increases , heat coming , etc etc. should not we expect a greater delta to the 5 year average over the next 2 months or so.? sorry for the run on sentence.

  146. 146
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 139:  Yes on fund liquidation.  A big energy hedge fund guru decided to call it quits yesterday.  There has also been a number of high profile earnings misses among E&Ps this week.  Then there is the European mess, where evidence this week showed a greater than expected slowdown–yet the ECB will not cut rates.  Growth is the enemy there, apparently.  The broader markets are selling off.  So a perfect storm of negative information has hit the energy sector this week.  

  147. 147
    zman Says:

    CLR Notes

    – Currently exceeding 91,000 BOEpd – that's very strong … they just upped guidance midpoint to 91,900 for the full year. 

    – Montana Bakken – 

    – Acquisitions – 46,000 net acres over the last quarter in the Willistoin, half of it already HBP'd

    – Bakken – spud to spud times cut 30% in the last 6 months

    – Wheatland – no production in 1Q from the acquisition

    – Capital Budget

      –  oil prices have remained favorable in the last 6 months since the original budget

      –  service costs steady

      – increased  efficiency continues 

      – infrastructure of all kinds still needed

    All of this combines to cause them to up well count, add a couple of rigs in the Bakken later this  



  148. 148
    RB Says:

    re: 142…my top two mudders are El Padrino and Take Charge Indy…. El Padrino has never lost on an off track, has good breeding for the distance and should go off at nice odds…don't especially like his post but it is what it is.  Take Charge Indy is in a much better post, has lost on an off track to El Padrino…I like 'em both

  149. 149
    zman Says:

    CLR – this is the section of the CLR Q&A that seems to have worried people as far as I can tell:



     Thank you very much for that question. Our next question is coming from the

     line of  Jason Selch from Helios Advisors. Please go ahead.

     <Q – Jason Selch>: Yes, Harold, I understand that you don't want to discuss

     the Wheatland on the conference call because there is information of proxy.

     But there is all this controversy with the Chesapeake plan given how its

     being financed. And I was wondering whether you're going to update the

     information in your proxy to provide disclosure not on how the Wheatland oil

     plan was financed.

     <A>: Well, first of all, this is subject to approval by shareholders and have

     preliminary proxy on file. I think its complete now. I don't see it being

     updated. I don't know about Chesapeake there what the arrangements were. I

     don't study them and I don't know how to comment on that and wouldn't comment

     on that. So anyway …

     <Q – Jason Selch>: Okay. I just was wondering whether Wheatland oil was

     borrowing money from the same companies that were financing Continental.

     <A>: Not at all.

  150. 150
    zman Says:

    re 148 – thanks.   What's your top pick for the race?

  151. 151
    zman Says:

    SFY – reviewed the other day, didn't get to their numbers yet but has been weak and dropping all day, down 11% now. No interest by me I think at this time. 

  152. 152
    Zorgnak Says:

    HAL acting relatively well in this tape..back to support and major acceptance….

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    CLR Notes 2

    – focused on efficiency, upgrading any underperforming rigs

    – operations guy reading the press release (highlighting Niobrara, and the Cana)

    – Very pleased with lower bench TFS wells

      – Charlotte well 64,000 boe in 5.5 months

      – Sunline well 48,000 boe in 2 monhts 

      – both of these lower bench wells are acting like their  TFS well results elsewhere.  

    –  Drilling a 3rd bench TFS well in the Charlotte unit

    – Also drilling a first bench TFS well there so it will give them the first unit in the Williston producing from 4 zones (middle Bakken, and 1sr, 2nd, 3rd Three Forks Sanish).  That will be good to show people. 

  154. 154
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PVA 10 3/8s up a point to 95 1/2 offered.  Nice snag this morning, zorg.  You might have picked the bottom for those bonds.

  155. 155
    Zorgnak Says:

    #154 I had a good coach!

  156. 156
    RB Says:

    I will make El Padrino my top pick…
    I will bet a four horse exacta box….El Padrino, Alpha, Take Charge Indy and Bodemeister and a three horse exacta box with Union Rags, ElPadrino and Take Charge Indy….
    I'm not a great handicapper….just a great track side bullshi***er

  157. 157
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…sellers aren't all that confident here either…….

  158. 158
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Well… those bonds are going to go higher.  That was a very bondholder-friendly conf call.  Institutional friend (who mocked me with the "bad management" comment) just emailed a congrats.  With a dearth of bonds yielding as high as those PVAs, lots of fixed income-types will be dusting off the old model and taking another look.

  159. 159
    Zorgnak Says:

    #158 delighted to hear it ,….

  160. 160
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    With bonds, a company doesn't have to operationally hit-the-ball-outta-the-park…. they just have to not-screw-up.  It's a different level of performance than the stock market demands.  But giving the asymmetrical payoff for bonds (upside = 10% + coupon / downside = 0) makes institutional investors jumpier than a cricket landing in a hot skillet.

  161. 161
    zman Says:


    CLR Q&A

    Got a question geared to the EOG package – said they are participating in the packages in their area but didn't answer so they are obviously bidding  on the package as they mentioned some of the packages are in the 10s of thousands of acres which the EOG package is, also, I think CLR is an operator of a sizable piece of the EOG non-op package. 

    CLR – thinking Bakken crude stabilizies in the $7 to $9 range

    CLR – expecting most of their Bakken acreage will be sutiable for ecopad drilling

    CLR – thoughts on 2nd bench EUIR = 650,000 BOE – that's a big number

    CLR – seeing very strong performance from their 30 stage wells, sprinkling in some 40 stage wells. They expect reserves to be upgraded at some point from their 603,000 BOE per well EUR.  

    Solid call, still listening now … other than what sounded like a fishing attempt to tie Hamm to Aubrey I have not heard anything to account for the fall off during the call. I think its noise/a silly move. 

  162. 162
    zman Says:

    Thanks much RB!

  163. 163
    Zorgnak Says:

    Re CLR..thanks Z…

  164. 164
    Mosca47 Says:

    re: 138 – . The impairment from EROC Texas facilities resulted from a decline in gathering volumes and nat gas prices. However their adjusted EBITDA is still up Q over Q and they announced a 5% increase in the 9% distribution.

  165. 165
    RB Says:

    yw Z…all that's banking on an off track…

  166. 166
    zman Says:

    re 163 – won't matter today most likely but company is firing on all cylinders. 

  167. 167
    ram Says:

    Re CLR, I decided to buy Jun 90 calls based on what I read on top of common.

  168. 168
    zman Says:

    re 167 – Good luck with that trade sir.

  169. 169
    zman Says:

    WVR on the tape saying they closed first tranche of private placement. 

  170. 170
    nrgyman Says:

    More big natgas producers (XOM, COP, ECA) recently announce natgas production cutbacks, with more to come:

  171. 171
    zman Says:

    Zorg – Got WPRT thoughts on a support zone below current levels?  Earnings Tuesday. My eyeball says $28.25 and that today is a convenient rejection of the 200 day and little more. 

  172. 172
    brodway Says:

    re: 171
    and CLNE while you are at it Zorg.

  173. 173
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P futs…pushing the key 1389 level near the close, now resistance …lot's of stuck longs overhead…

  174. 174
    zman Says:

    re 170 – thank you sir, may they continue to see the wisdom of the curtailment. Story getting more mainstream notice. 

  175. 175
    zman Says:

    Ultimately irony will be Aubrey getting set afloat on a raft somewhere remote (perhaps drifting through Bricktown) while NG, over the course of the next 18 months goes back to $5 to $6. 

  176. 176
    brodway Says:

    funny that OAS goes down back to a 30 handle after some impressive earnings. does anyone even care about earnings anymore?

  177. 177
    Zorgnak Says:

    #171 WPRT   I can see the 28 and then 26.90 on an overshoot…..this thing is a beast!

  178. 178
    Zorgnak Says:

    #174  CLNE   The 18.50 neckline was the big support area…next down that I see as areas to watch are at  17.50 and  16.75.
    I've backed off this one as there's a ton of people under water  above ala WPRT…..Great company but under 18.50…it could get heavy. Just my imo.

  179. 179
    Alhambra Says:

    Anybody else see the S&P break a head and shoulders pattern today with the strong move below 1394… would put downside target at about 1375.  Job numbers tomorrow remain key determinant as to which way it moves; fundamentals always king in my world

  180. 180
    Baylor Says:

    What's been going on with SSN?  Been hammered over the last several months.

  181. 181
    zman Says:

    re 180 – It's been volatile, also took a trip to $3 during that time frame. Basically don't have rates yet on the Montana Bakken wells and Defender has had issues. There have been operations updates every other week or so detailing their progress which can be found using SSN under the pull down menu at upper left. 

  182. 182
    Zorgnak Says:

    #179..what time frame?

  183. 183
    brodway Says:

    re: 178
    that is exactly why i was asking….thanks

  184. 184
    RMD Says:

    West: doing some well watching in Trego county apropos your SYRG update (which was wonderful):
    hearing of vertica  well EURs of up to 400-500m  by Murfin, Berexco and others.  Sadly source is traveling until Mon. when I can find out specifics.  BTW, source is new so I have no read on reliability.
    Berexco 500m Colberg 15-195-0067
    Murfin 450m Wagoner 15-195-00325

  185. 185
    zman Says:

    After the close we should get our best read on the Brown Dense yet

  186. 186
    Zorgnak Says:

    #179..I had 1389 as the break..and it gets hairy below 1380….that said a break back above 1389  in the next couple of days that carries above 1393 would be failed H & S and we could take off. I see that as the less likely but possible scenario.Just thinking out loud..

  187. 187
    Alhambra Says:

    182 – short time frame: started April 26.  I'm looking at a 15 day chart

  188. 188
    zman Says:

    It will be interesting to see price target and ratings changes for PVA tomorrow. 

  189. 189
    zman Says:

    Al – as you say, all depends on payrolls, could reverse and put in a new high as well. To me, the time frame is too short to call a HNS but I'm no TA guy like the Zorg. 

  190. 190
    choices Says:

    jeez-red day in spades-went to the dentist this AM, just got back and realized that I've been drilled many more ways than at the dentist.

  191. 191
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty and I'll be here until soccerthirty so for the next 2 hours at least. 

  192. 192
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MHR offering shares… 35 million of them.
    Expected a bond offering… not a stock offering.

  193. 193
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Oh.  Here come the bonds too…  guess they had to issue the stock, to get a decent bond rating.

  194. 194
    zman Says:



    A little light on revenues but EBITDA ahead at $34 vs $29 mm expected

    Production was 12,624 BOEpd, which is kind of where I had it, might be a disappointment to some as they had a 12.5 MBOEpd exit and a 13,000 late Feb point in time number. 

  195. 195
    choices Says:

    maybe OT-El, if you get a minute, read transcript of ABX cc-Chairman has no idea what the hell goes w/gold stks-beat many of the forecasted #'s and street turns around and continues kicking it in the teeth-no one seems to know when the gold stks will find support.

  196. 196
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    $450mm of senior notes.  hmmmmm…. need to get to $500mm to make it to benchmark bond status… will probably try to upside to that level, if they can kick over enough stones to find interest.

  197. 197
    elijahwc Says:

    And debt BOP

  198. 198
    RB Says:

    Briefing reports MHR to offer 35 million shares….that ought to brighten a few attitudes around here

  199. 199
    zman Says:


    – 61,151 net Utica acres now. 

    – deals paying for the previously announced Williston acreage. 

    Hear ya BOP, he's keeping up with the whole balanced capital structure thing

    – Why do I only get 15 minutes to read all this Gary?

  200. 200
    elijahwc Says:

    And no mention of intent to take out the prfd C's

  201. 201
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    hmmmm…. 21% equity dilution… but issuing bonds that will take out at least one of the pesky perferreds, i'm guessing. 
    MHR stock will take a hit on this… but i'll bet it bounces back pretty smartly.  We shall — as they say — see.

  202. 202
    zman Says:

    re 200 – yes. I wonder if these warrants would be useful to light charcoal for the weekend. 

  203. 203
    nrgyman Says:

    MHR now at 200 dma in AH.

  204. 204
    zman Says:

    Gary will need to do some good spinning here. 

  205. 205
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MHR — just when you think that Gary has telegraphed to the market what he intends to do, he turns around and whacks ya upside the head with a three-day-old fish. 
    Not quite what you were expecting… it kinda hurts… and it definitely smells bad.
    And he wonders why he chases his investor base away?  I'm sticking around… but i've got a dent in the side of my head that smells rather fishy. 

  206. 206
    elduque Says:

    thanks choices. I don't know either, but I would think that some fund is in forced liquidation. Selling begets more selling. The stocks are streaky, however. 

  207. 207
    Zorgnak Says:

    #189… Yeah….I don't put much on the H&S thing….My charts are littered with failed H&S patterns. I see them more as a risk tool rather than a predictor of things to come….I see  support at  1384.50 , 1383 acceptance level and the support below at 1380 as the levels that could put a hole in your portfolio if they fold. Nasty 10 point gap below 1380…..
     1389 above was the level that big money pushed  though and defended as the market shot higher. It's still in the picture. An econ report that gets the 'crickets" jumping above that level could turn us right around…that's going to take some manic crickets though.

  208. 208
    zman Says:

    Listening to MHR call

    KOG coming across now

    Big misses top and EBITDA line as expected, analysts had not filtered the lower production into last week's surprise volumes miss. 

  209. 209
    zman Says:

    KOG March production was 12,500 BOEpd. 

    KOG taking down the low end of guidance range so they go from 19 to 21,000 BOEpd for 2012 to a range of 17,000 to 21,0000 BOEpd. No alteration to exit rate of 27,000 BOEpd. saying its all timing related and not well performance which sounds right. 

  210. 210
    elijahwc Says:

    "Encouraging Brown Dense results"

  211. 211
    elijahwc Says:

    SWN:  "company's second well, the Garrett 7-23-5H #1 located in Claiborne Parish, Louisiana, was drilled to a vertical depth in February 2012 of approximately 10,863 feet with a 6,536-foot horizontal lateral and was completed with 19 fracture stimulation stages. After 48 days of flowing up casing, this well's highest 24-hour producing rate to date was 301 barrels of 52 degree API oil per day, 1,700 Mcf per day and 2,200 barrels of water per day (55% of load recovered to date). The company is currently running tubing in the well and believes that the rate could continue to increase until approximately 65% of the fluid load is recovered, "

  212. 212
    zman Says:


    MHR Q&A

    Mentioned getting one nice new rig at a much below market rate in Eagle Ford that was on contract with a gassy company (but who now can't afford it)

    Bakken services – pressure coming off prices now. 

    Q: Will you take a pause after these deals. 

    A: We've disclosed everything we are working on, but recognize these are bolt ons, bolt ons to stuff we already have and not frontier type acquisitions. 

  213. 213
    zman Says:

    MHR Q&A

    All of the acreage looks to be in the heart of the play and all are HBP acres

    …. end of Q&A


    – volumes in the middle of guidance

    – EPS of $0.31 vs $0.34 due to gas price weakness

    – CFPS of $1.06 vs $1.05 expected

    – On the Brown Dense, I'd call that encouraging too as the peak is just the peak so far and that works out to 584 BOEpd (52% oil). 

  214. 214
    zman Says:

    MHR walking up in the after market. It was a good quarter. People in the name expect the dilution. Spots = leopard, they know that. I think Gary's point about all of the acquisitions being bolt ons and much of the middle country stuff (Utica) being HBP is key. They know the acreage already and or they have no time pressure to drill it. 

  215. 215
    nrgyman Says:

    KOG walking back up also.  Bad news baked into the stock?

  216. 216
    zman Says:

    KOG – many analysts suspected they would take down guidance, not exactly surprising they did it. Could get dented more in morning but probably largely discounted now. 

    SWN – on the whole positive, still looking over the numbers. Brown Dense not a swing out of the park but it is another step in the right direction. Note they are adding money to buy more leasehold (already over 500,000 net acres) and that they may add a second Brown Dense rig in 3Q. 

  217. 217
    zman Says:

    re 215 – ha, see 216 … I couldn't get it typed fast enough, LOL. Gentlemen, I'm stepping out for a few hours but will be back later if anyone once to bounce anything other than rocks/bricks off me. 

  218. 218
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 216:  Yeah, not sure either MHR or KOG are done going down.  If we get a market drop in the morning, both could test lower targets.  KOG target is the gap just below $8 and MHR hit the $5.41 target at the 200 dma in the AH and would likely be the minimum downside target.  

  219. 219
    1520sbroad Says:

    SWN thoughts…
    FS – still put on 146 wells in Q1.  My guess is that will be the high for a while.  I can see the analysts giving them some flak for the IP rate coming down slightly…
    Brown Dense – very linear improvement in the 3 wells reported so far — SWN #1 – 100 barrels of oil/day, COG #1 – 200 barrels of oil a day, SWN #2 – 300 barrels of oil a day.  
    Steps in the right direction as Z said.  I will be interested to hear their plans for moving another rig down there as mentioned in the release.  
    SWN sold some acreage, leases etc on 5/1/12 – their overton field – $175 million.  Helps keep them flush with cash.
    That DJ basin well happened a lot sooner than I thought it would.  Looks like they will drill well #2 in Q2 2012.  I didn't think that would happen until late 2012.  I don't know this area well – adams county CO.  Note to self to do some digging there.
    10 am eastern conference call may yield more info than the earnings release did…

  220. 220
    Zorgnak Says:

    E&P Volume and Breadth…
    Demand Volume and Breadth reflective of two strong down days. Not yet at extreme oversold.
    Up/Dn Volume % and % Decliners stretched but not yet over sold.

  221. 221
    zman Says:

    1520 – well said regarding the Brown Dense progression.   Hit the PO Box today too, thanks much for the kind words. 

  222. 222
    choices Says:

    CHK-directors' comp-heh:

  223. 223
    zman Says:

    re 222 – LOL, that guy's pretty funny. 

  224. 224
    Zorgnak Says:

    Japan shuts down last nuke plant

  225. 225
    how to build your Own Website Says:

    how to build your Own Website

  226. 226
    eastbaylabyrinthproject.org Says:


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