27
Apr
Wrap – Week Ended 4/27/12
Well, this week had a little better tone to it. Interesting to see the flatter slope in the gas injection rate (as expected) continue to develop while the natural gas directed rig count proceeded to hit a 10 year low. Note also in the table below we saw a nice little bounce in the front month and more in the NG strip last week and the net short position of the non-commercial traders (speculators) continues to decline. On Monday we will get fresh supply and demand figures.
Big soccer weekend here so the rest of the wrap comments will be incorporated into the Monday post along with the "Week That Was" and the coming week's Energy Earnings Calendar.
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April 27th, 2012 at 10:50 pmand follow us on Twitter, keyword
@zmansenrgybrain
April 27th, 2012 at 10:51 pmZ – check your PO box early next week. another very satisfied, long term customer.
April 28th, 2012 at 6:41 amCHK — somewhat disingenuous for "Devon Shire" to take credit for "writing" this article, when all it does is lift verbage from someone else's news letter… but that someone else is Tilson at T2… and very worthwhile reading.
April 28th, 2012 at 9:38 amhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/535971-i-want-a-change-in-leadership-at-chesapeake-energy?source=email_the_daily_dispatch&ifp=0
I think Tilson's comments are spot on, wrt CHK. But, unlike Tilson, I am not holding CHK shares as there are too many other compelling investments out there. Aubrey is what and who he is (the fact that the entire trading operations are run by just 3 people is not surprising — doesn't take a roomfull of people to trade — but the fact that one of those 3 is Aubrey… well… back to my earlier comments that Aubrey's best friend runs a HF in CT and he aspires to be seen as a BSD Trader). But it is the Board of Directors who should be pilloried… or tarred and feathered… take your pick. These people are clearly on the side of Aubrey. And NOT the shareholders. I don't think I can come up with an example of a BoD who show less fiduciary duty than this pack of over-paid Pocket Monkeys. Each and every one of them. The $12mm map purchase is all I need say about that.
re 3 – ah, very cool, thanks much.
re 4 – thanks, saw where Aubrey took a loan from one of the board.
April 28th, 2012 at 2:29 pmCHK-board member who gave the loan to Aubrey was on the Compensation Committee-heh.
April 28th, 2012 at 8:37 pmE&P Breadth and Up/Down Volume %
April 29th, 2012 at 7:33 amDemand volume turned positive last Thursday as price broke from tight consolidation formed prior to
earnings. Up Volume % reached overbought levels on Friday after 5 consecutive positive closes
in the index. Expectation is for at least a pause. Watching Demand Volume on the index and Friday's low on the
XOP as canaries.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/EP_Breadth_updnvol-2.png
Weekly Volume Profile Levels
Last week tested the lower limits of the lower balance range at 1354 and rallied, closing up five consecutive
sessions into consolidation on Friday in the previous upper balance range at 1397.50.
Bulls are in control above 1392.50. A volume break above 1403 would target recent highs with
1419.75 as major resistance. A break below 1392.50 would suggest a retest of last weeks breakout levels around
1383. Expecting choppy upside bias above 1392.50 and increased volatility below that level.
CLVN= Low Volume Rejection Area – CHVN = High Volume Acceptance/Congestion
April 29th, 2012 at 8:20 am1419.75 Resistance, Major CLVN
1413 Congestion, Major CHVN
1406.50 Minor CLVN, Recent overhead supply recedes to 1413
1403 Acceptance, Congestion,
1401.50 Resistance, CLVN
1397.50 Acceptance, CHVN
1394.50 Support, CLVN
1392.50 MCHVN, Thick Congestion to 1397, Minor Support 1391.25
1387.50 Acceptance, Congestion, CHVN
1384-86 Support, CLVN
1383 Previous Range Acceptance
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/ES_Weekly.png
Thanks Zorg
BG39 – your free year begins today, congrats on winning the 1Q12 performance challenge!
April 29th, 2012 at 12:42 pmXLE
April 29th, 2012 at 4:49 pmRan up with the market to Major acceptance at 71 and consolidated below that level on Friday.
Resistance at 71.36. Looking for choppy consolidation. Mind the volume gap below Friday's low that works to the top of the previous range
at 69.93.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/Stock_Weekly_3.png
BTU
April 29th, 2012 at 6:06 pmClosed above acceptance 29.95 and support, 29.75 on Friday. Looking to buy near support. Would imagine there will be a lot of eyes on 31.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/Stock_Weekly_4.png
WLT
April 29th, 2012 at 6:26 pmLooking to buy near support 64.84. Break out above at 69 would clear volume base.
First resistance 72.86 Far resistance 77.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/Stock_Weekly_5.png
CLNE
April 29th, 2012 at 6:42 pmA break of 20 clears majority of overhead. Looking for a pullback to buy.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/Stock_Weekly_6.png
WPRT
April 29th, 2012 at 7:09 pm31.58 Resistance/Breakout..Large volume gap above. Could see some fireworks.
30.94 Minor Support
29.90 Support
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/Stock_Weekly_10.png
Natural Gas to the Rescue:
April 29th, 2012 at 7:24 pmhttp://news.yahoo.com/navy-nears-deal-help-avoid-cal-power-shortages-201445130.html
Fire up those SHUTDOWN Nat Gas Turbines soon, before S. California is in the DARK & HEAT!
RATIONING ELECTRICITY in S. CALIFRONIA…..who would have thunk of that.
re 15 – Doohhhh.
April 29th, 2012 at 7:29 pmWPRT holding the breakout in a slumpy tape
April 30th, 2012 at 9:33 amWPRT
April 30th, 2012 at 9:34 amhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/30/Stock2.png