14
Apr

Wrap Week Ended 4/13/12

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15 Responses to “Wrap Week Ended 4/13/12”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    Weekly Volume Profile Levels

    Early last week the market made an unexpectedly strong down move through numerous layers of
    volume support and sliced through thick congestion to 1353, coming within a few points
    of falling into the gap to 1347. The attempt later in the week to regain the upper balance area above 1387.50 was quickly
    rejected by sellers back to the lower acceptance zone closing at 1365 on Friday.
    Market looks structurally weak below 1363.50. Minor support at 1360.50. Major Support at 1347.
    Bounce buyers trapped above 1366.50
    Main scenarios in my view… #1 Market accepts 1365 as acceptance and begins to find balance after testing minor support below or
    #2 Rejects 1365 with a test of support at 1347? Will be watching support at 1360.50 as first clue.

    CLVN= Low Volume Rejection Area – CHVN = High Volume Acceptance/Congestion – VPOC = Most Accepted Session Price
    1392.50    MCHVN, Prior range acceptance, Thick Congestion
    1387.50    Resistance
    1382.50    Minor Resistance
    1377.50    Minor CHVN
    1370.50    Minor Resistance
    1365          Major Acceptance
    1363.50    Minor Support
    1360.50    CLVN, Support
    1353.50    CHVN, Bottom of congestion
    1347.50    Major Support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/14/ES_Weekly.png

  2. 2
    brodway Says:

    Interesting week ahead.
    Options expiration on Friday.
    In my very unprofessional opinion, i believe many of the energy names have hit bottoms and should start to recover going into late spring. Summer driving season is coming and there is some pent up demand for people to start traveling again. After all, we have been in a rut for a few years now and families are anxious (at least those that i speak to) to get out and the country and the world.
    Some of the ZLT names and others i follow have held support for a few weeks now. Some of these names include OAS (28.50), KOG (9), COG (30), MHR (5.80), TPLM (5.80), NOG (20), GPOR (26.50), WPRT (35), FTK (11.75).
    Of course, i've been wrong many times before, but its starting to feel like the cul de sac effect has been reached. No one can predict +/- 3% moves but it sure is starting to feel like there is some (to steal from Zorg) an acceptance of these prices.

  3. 3
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Re; To Friday's comments on CJES from Dillon and Z. and others. I had to leave the desk for the day and did not respond.
    Thank you for your input. It means a lot to have advice when  doubts start creeping in.  

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    Homework notes
    ZLT Breadth: Extreme overall weakness  relieved by weak bounce.
    ZLT ADV/DEC EMAs: Most extreme short term YTD readings. Intermediate Extreme
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT_Index_Haurlan-4.png
    ZLT Up/Dn Volume Spread/% Decliners: Reflecting the weak bounce. Unable to get above mid points.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT_updn_Decl-7.png
    Inverse Energy Volume Spread: Measures the amount of aggressive volume in Energy Bear ETF's. None yet.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/InverseEnergy_VolSpread.png
    Note..Breadth indicators are lagging indicators that reflect
                 historical extremes and not are not predictive of imminent price reversal.

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    Noticed the Coal group made a double bottom last week. Breath divergences.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZCoal_Haurlan.png
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZCoal_VolSpread_Decliners.png

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    re 3 – Glad to help

    Thanks for the levels Zorg – yeah, better move in BTU from the lows on Thursday but retreated again Friday with China GDP. 

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    Gas group making a triple bottom. Short and intermediate breadth cratering. Up/Dn Volume spread oversold.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZGAS_Breadth-1.png

  8. 8
    brodway Says:

    re: 5
    Pop in BTU was quite strong earlier in the week. On decent volume too. Chart of BTU even on a long term basis looks like its finding a safe landing area. 

  9. 9
    brodway Says:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BTU&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
    5 year chart of BTU 

  10. 10
    brodway Says:

    re: 7
    I think it feels that way too. Didn't quite see it in the same perspective as your charts convey, yet the gas story is getting overblown and stale.

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE …Similar to the SP500. ..Trying to find balance around the major acceptance area at 68.50. Watching any retest of near support at 68 for clues on whether we begin to balance or rotate further downward .

    70       Major Resistance
    68       Support
    66.63 Far support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/15/Stock_Weekly_3.png

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude…Looking for crude  back to major acceptance at 100 +- .50.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/15/CrudeIntraday.png

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Crude holding $102.50 in the early overnight

    http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

    Lots of ecodata this week, futures starting off tonight with a little retreat. 

  14. 14
    brodway Says:

    another view of Zorg's important S&P levels
    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/90532989/

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Crude holding $102 pretty well at the moment, group getting cheaper by the hour for no good reason than I can find and good news I would note is almost entirely being ignored. Feels like some premature Sell In May action, should be about done.
    NG up a penny at $1.99.  

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