14
Apr
Wrap Week Ended 4/13/12
In progress...
This entry was posted on Saturday, April 14th, 2012 at 5:34 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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Weekly Volume Profile Levels
Early last week the market made an unexpectedly strong down move through numerous layers of
volume support and sliced through thick congestion to 1353, coming within a few points
of falling into the gap to 1347. The attempt later in the week to regain the upper balance area above 1387.50 was quickly
rejected by sellers back to the lower acceptance zone closing at 1365 on Friday.
Market looks structurally weak below 1363.50. Minor support at 1360.50. Major Support at 1347.
Bounce buyers trapped above 1366.50
Main scenarios in my view… #1 Market accepts 1365 as acceptance and begins to find balance after testing minor support below or
#2 Rejects 1365 with a test of support at 1347? Will be watching support at 1360.50 as first clue.
CLVN= Low Volume Rejection Area – CHVN = High Volume Acceptance/Congestion – VPOC = Most Accepted Session Price
April 14th, 2012 at 10:35 pm1392.50 MCHVN, Prior range acceptance, Thick Congestion
1387.50 Resistance
1382.50 Minor Resistance
1377.50 Minor CHVN
1370.50 Minor Resistance
1365 Major Acceptance
1363.50 Minor Support
1360.50 CLVN, Support
1353.50 CHVN, Bottom of congestion
1347.50 Major Support
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/14/ES_Weekly.png
Interesting week ahead.
April 15th, 2012 at 9:00 amOptions expiration on Friday.
In my very unprofessional opinion, i believe many of the energy names have hit bottoms and should start to recover going into late spring. Summer driving season is coming and there is some pent up demand for people to start traveling again. After all, we have been in a rut for a few years now and families are anxious (at least those that i speak to) to get out and the country and the world.
Some of the ZLT names and others i follow have held support for a few weeks now. Some of these names include OAS (28.50), KOG (9), COG (30), MHR (5.80), TPLM (5.80), NOG (20), GPOR (26.50), WPRT (35), FTK (11.75).
Of course, i've been wrong many times before, but its starting to feel like the cul de sac effect has been reached. No one can predict +/- 3% moves but it sure is starting to feel like there is some (to steal from Zorg) an acceptance of these prices.
Re; To Friday's comments on CJES from Dillon and Z. and others. I had to leave the desk for the day and did not respond.
April 15th, 2012 at 11:12 amThank you for your input. It means a lot to have advice when doubts start creeping in.
Homework notes
April 15th, 2012 at 12:09 pmZLT Breadth: Extreme overall weakness relieved by weak bounce.
ZLT ADV/DEC EMAs: Most extreme short term YTD readings. Intermediate Extreme
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT_Index_Haurlan-4.png
ZLT Up/Dn Volume Spread/% Decliners: Reflecting the weak bounce. Unable to get above mid points.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT_updn_Decl-7.png
Inverse Energy Volume Spread: Measures the amount of aggressive volume in Energy Bear ETF's. None yet.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/InverseEnergy_VolSpread.png
Note..Breadth indicators are lagging indicators that reflect
historical extremes and not are not predictive of imminent price reversal.
Noticed the Coal group made a double bottom last week. Breath divergences.
April 15th, 2012 at 12:28 pmhttp://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZCoal_Haurlan.png
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZCoal_VolSpread_Decliners.png
re 3 – Glad to help
Thanks for the levels Zorg – yeah, better move in BTU from the lows on Thursday but retreated again Friday with China GDP.
April 15th, 2012 at 12:31 pmGas group making a triple bottom. Short and intermediate breadth cratering. Up/Dn Volume spread oversold.
April 15th, 2012 at 12:40 pmhttp://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZGAS_Breadth-1.png
re: 5
April 15th, 2012 at 12:40 pmPop in BTU was quite strong earlier in the week. On decent volume too. Chart of BTU even on a long term basis looks like its finding a safe landing area.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BTU&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
April 15th, 2012 at 12:41 pm5 year chart of BTU
re: 7
April 15th, 2012 at 12:43 pmI think it feels that way too. Didn't quite see it in the same perspective as your charts convey, yet the gas story is getting overblown and stale.
XLE …Similar to the SP500. ..Trying to find balance around the major acceptance area at 68.50. Watching any retest of near support at 68 for clues on whether we begin to balance or rotate further downward .
70 Major Resistance
April 15th, 2012 at 1:08 pm68 Support
66.63 Far support
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/15/Stock_Weekly_3.png
Crude…Looking for crude back to major acceptance at 100 +- .50.
April 15th, 2012 at 1:15 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/15/CrudeIntraday.png
Crude holding $102.50 in the early overnight
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
Lots of ecodata this week, futures starting off tonight with a little retreat.
April 15th, 2012 at 5:54 pmanother view of Zorg's important S&P levels
April 15th, 2012 at 9:52 pmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/90532989/
Crude holding $102 pretty well at the moment, group getting cheaper by the hour for no good reason than I can find and good news I would note is almost entirely being ignored. Feels like some premature Sell In May action, should be about done.
April 16th, 2012 at 11:24 amNG up a penny at $1.99.