07
Apr

Wrap – Week Ended 4/5/2012

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Wrap comments will be incorporated into the Monday post. 

14 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 4/5/2012”

  1. 1
    Alhambra Says:

    State Fracking Bills: http://news.yahoo.com/illinois-general-assembly-rushes-approve-fracking-bills-205300282.html

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    Bonds/Stocks
    Interesting chart
    http://pragcap.com/economic-surprises-and-market-performance

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    Weekly Volume Profile Levels
    Friday's very thin NFP/Holiday session dropped the futures from  major long and short term acceptance into the very
    low volume zone between 1365.50 and 1875.50. 85% of volume since 3/12 is above 1387.50. I expect bounces to find significant
    resistance beginning there with thick congestion at 1392.50. Nearest acceptance lower is at 1365.50 with overshoot support at 1360.
    1365.50 looks to be the obvious place the bulls will defend at least once and the recent profile favors a test but not much of a bounce.
    Unless there is significant movement in Sunday's O/N session the market will open out of balance and in between two widely
    spaced acceptance levels, with little volume support or resistance near.
    For me…I don't see a reason to trade until I see the reaction to
    the acceptance level at 1365 and support areas  below it. Market internals were not yet at short term over sold extremes, as of Friday close. A follow through down day on Monday will begin
    to produce short term extremes. Pomo will no longer afford much lift as buying has peaked for April and turns neutral
    to negative for the rest of the month.
     
    Glossary of Terms http://www.futurestrader71.com/?page_id=1280
    CLVN= Low Volume Rejection Area – CHVN = High Volume Acceptance/Congestion – VPOC = Most Accepted Session Price
    1427       Major CHVN, Congestion
    1404.75    Resistance, CLVN
    1403       CHVN
    1401.25    Resistance, CLVN
    1394.50    Resistance, CLVN
    1397.50    CHVN
    1392.50    MCHVN, Prior range acceptance, Thick Congestion
    1387.50    Resistance, CLVN, Range Value Low
    1370.75    Minor CLVN
    1365.50    CHVN, Volume Base.
    1360.50    Support, CLVN
    1356.50    Support, CLVN
    1347       Support, CLVN, Volume base below 1340

    S&P 500 Futures
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/08/ES_Composite_TD
    S&P Futures Volume Only…Good shot of the volume gap between the two acceptance areas and the heavy overhead above 1387.50.
        http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/08/ES_Weekly_2

  4. 4
    brodway Says:

    Certainly looks like a gap down on Monday. Not sure how far down we go as employment numbers still positive (albeit slowing), but the overall figure was down to 8.2% so the trend is still positive. 
    Oddly, Goldman had just raised their estimates to over 205,000 additional jobs days before the figures came out.  Everyone was just too bullish and the gap down may be one of emotion. After the dust settles, however, equities will once again be the only place to be for the moment.
    Unless oil prices tank sub $100 a barrel i don't think oil equities will be going down as far as others as they have been correcting since late February. 

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    Zman Index…..E&P stocks approached or exceeded oversold levels on Thursday. With the potential for a big down open on Monday the ZLT stocks may reach short term extremes.
    Zman Index Short term breath reached  oversold levels on Thursday ..
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT_Index_Haurlan-1.png
    Volume Spread %Decliners Both near oversold levels on Thursday.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT_updn_Decl-2.png

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    ZGas Breadth All short term oversold with long and intermediate breadth EMA's headed south.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZGas_Haurlan-2.png
    Volume Spread %Decliners Oversold on Thursday. Will reach extremes on Monday with a further dip.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZGas_updn_Decl-1.png

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    re#5…"Everyone was just too bullish and the gap down may be one of emotion."  Agreed
    For me ….It's a very noisy/random spot to do business.
    The market's field position on Monday AM might change all that…..

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    re 7 – Agreed as well. My almost complete trading hiatus, aside from some call swapping late last week will come to an end this week. Expecting to see more dip buying early this week. 

    S&P fut were open a limited time Friday morning and closed off 15

    Oil was closed Friday but opened just over $102 a few minutes ago.

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    Europe closed tomorrow…Econ reports light…might be a snoozer after the opening

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    re 9 – agree on that as well, nothing on eco data front Monday, light all week until claims data on Th and sentiment on Friday.   I'd expect a bounce off the early low and then sideways chop. If they really crack oil I get more interested. The following week will be more interesting with IPAA and the first bit of energy 1Q12 earnings (and 4Q11 for TPLM a week from tomorrow).  

  11. 11
    brodway Says:

    i for one am looking to be a buyer of TPLM under 6 tomorrow. have been eyeing it for a while, and will pull trigger at 5.80 where i bought in last time.
    have to watch SM under 67. its been quite strong in the mid 60 range and it may be time to scale in again.
    may add to COG at 30 if it gets down there. its really found good support in this spot.
    i may average down in WPRT if it gets to 35. not sure if Zorg agrees with this trade, but i can't justify a 30% move down on no negative news in the company itself. it has had a big run, but good companies usually do.
    finally i will be averaging down in GPOR at 25, if it gets there, as i think this one has also been beaten down for no good reason.
    i'm also seeing a play in WLL. it really has bottomed at 52, but if gets below this, i may be repurchasing some shares i let go higher last month.
    finally, RRC has gotten down to some strong support levels (mid 50's). i traded this one last time from 55 to 62.50 (covered calls taken) and may do this again.
    look forward to some trading ideas from the board. 

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    #12  re.. WPRT……I like the setup here coming into a major CLVN after a big red volume day last Thursday and showing a nearly completed TD exhaustion pattern. I took a shot last week and was too early and stopped out.  Likely to take another one in here soon …market willing.
    I'm a real pansy when it comes to taking heat but not such a hot judge of other peoples trading plans.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/08/Stock_Composite_TD.png

  13. 13
    brodway Says:

    Zorg.
    after brutal moves and volatility the market has seen in last 5 years, i can't blame you for being overly cautious. 

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    #14…I'm still twitching from Oct 87'

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