31
Mar
Wrap – Week Ended 03/30/12 (In Progress)
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This entry was posted on Saturday, March 31st, 2012 at 9:43 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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Weekly Look
S&P Futures..Notes to myself...The deep low volume node below 1388 continued to reject prices higher last week. The levels from 1388 to 1397.50 have been well auctioned over the past
two weeks. Friday's close was above the volume range pivot at 1397.75. Majority of recent volume is now below/supportive of current price levels with only light recent overhead
congestion above. Thick long term congestion above to Major CHVN at 1427.50. Long term volume demand remains supportive with short term demand positive but flat.
Breadth positive/supportive in all time frames but diverging. Quant Studies..April POMO action peaks on 4/5 with no sales until 4/9. Early April and
1st trading day of the month is seasonally strong. NDX and Russell 2000 down 3 days in row but > 50MA while SPX closes at 3 day high is bullish.
China PMI upside surprise.
Evidence suggests choppy upside upside bias likely into early April. Bulls in control above 1397.50.
S&P Futures Volume Profile
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/01/ES_Composite.png
S&P Breadth(Haurlan Breadth EMAs)
April 1st, 2012 at 9:32 amhttp://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/OEX_Breadth-1.png
Thanks Zorg, always appreciated the weekly look
April 1st, 2012 at 9:36 amE&P Weekly
April 1st, 2012 at 10:18 amE&P stocks short term oversold 3/29 on price range, volume and breadth last week. So far a low volume bounce off support at 56.22.
Near resistance at 58 with congestion building in the high 58s.Needs volume.
ZLT Volume/Breadth
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT_Breadth-1.png
XOP Volume Profile
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/01/Stock_Composite.png
XLE Overshot major acceptance at 71 and bounced off support at 70. Near resistance 72-72.50, far resistance at 73.
XLE Volume Profile
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/01/Stock_Composite_2.png
ZGas Stocks held to the current sideways channel last week. Breadth and volume demand oversold on 3/29. Price, Volume and breadth still weak but
April 1st, 2012 at 10:19 amsell offs showing less intensity.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZGAS_Breadth.png
Zman.
April 1st, 2012 at 10:21 amWanted to say i enjoyed the Friday gas write-up. Thinking unlike the herd and presenting good historical background is why i believe this is one of the better sites out there. Over time, i have to agree that gas offers positive risk/reward ratio and i've been adding over the last week to names as REXX, SWN and initiated a position in COG. "Buy your straw hats in the winter time" certainly applies here.
Thanks much Brod, eyes on the long term prize
April 1st, 2012 at 11:05 amVaalco Energy [EGY]
~2012 Capex $75 Million (excl. of Angola)
~2012 Est Cashflow $75 million.
~cash as of 12/31/2012 $149.1 million of which $12 million is restricted (about $6 million is for Angola)
~debt =ZERO
2012 Catalyst List:
Vaalco Energy 2012 Catalysts
Event Timeframe Outcome
Granite Wash Well #2 (14 stage frac ) IP of 10-12 MMCFD and 300 barrels of NGL/day completed and tied in . Prod. Begins April
Note:Frac started 3/14/12, but mgmt. will
Be cautious because of experience on
The 1st GW Well.
Reeneter & complete 1st Poplar Dome
[Montana Bakken] well based upon core
analysis of 3 of the 5 formations.
Note: Infrastructure already exists and
Well in Poplar Dome can be on
Production within weeks of completion. June IP of 500-1,000 BOPD
Commitment to Drill Block 5
Offshore Angola
~with new PSA Partner & drill Loengo late June
presalt prospect or alternately
~without PSA partner & drill postsalt
prospect . March 29,2012 Drill 1 Exploratory Well in Q4
NOTE: Vaalco committed in slide #15 of
The Howard Weil Presentation to drill the
First Exploratory well in Block 5 on 3/29
Drill 1st 2 exploration Wells in Salt Lake
Prospect [Montana Bakken] . These are
Morel like delineation wells as comps are
located all around them start late May Drill 2 Exploratory wells Q3
Drill 2 more exploration wells in Poplar
Dome [Montana Bakken]. Both well
Will be Horizontals. Derisks play Q3 Drill 2 Exploratory Wells Q3
On Shore Gabon [Mutamba concession]
Drill 1 exploration well with PSA partner
Total 2nd Half Drill Exploratory well 40% Prob. Of success
Offshore Gabon[Etame concession] drill
A minimum of 4 (maximum of 6 wells)
April 1st, 2012 at 11:18 am~1 Exploration/Dev. well [Ebouri new fault block] Exploratory 33% Prob.
~2 to 3 Development wells [2 Ebouri &1 S. Development Wells 95% Prob.
Tschibala/Avouma &
~1 workover well (replace esp) 2nd Half
Review of Citigroups US energy predictions
April 1st, 2012 at 11:22 amhttp://www.theoildrum.com/node/9079?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+theoildrum+%28The+Oil+Drum%29
Interesting, but not well thought through article:
April 1st, 2012 at 12:29 pmhttp://www.theoildrum.com/node/9079?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+theoildrum+%28The+Oil+Drum%29
Re: 1 One of the seasonality trades I follow buys on the close the Monday before the Good Friday holiday and sells at the close on the Thursday before Good Friday. That combined with the first of month seasonality mentioned in post #1 give some probability of a good 4 day week coming.
April 1st, 2012 at 3:54 pmROSE
April 1st, 2012 at 5:30 pmLong and short term volume demand remains positive. Traded into a little low volume air pocket below 49. Volume base at 47
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/01/Stock_Composite_5.png
WTI hanging $103.50 early.
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
April 1st, 2012 at 5:33 pmre: 11
April 1st, 2012 at 7:23 pmStill see a positive chart in ROSE, it may be filling in the move from the low 40's to the low 50's. Actually some oil stocks are starting to test their 200dma and ROSE is only a breath away from that important level. Maybe it tests and continues to go up again.
re 13 – yeah, noted that the 200 day was close at hand last week for several names, thinking same. Interesting week ahead as payrolls are Friday but US markets will be closed.
April 1st, 2012 at 7:25 pmMarket Watch headline….Australia jumps on Chinese data….and this ain't April fools
April 1st, 2012 at 8:23 pmGoldman Sachs, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and UBS are lead underwriters to the offering of GLOG, IPO LNG carrier. Priced @$14, down from original range of $16-$18, closed down on 1st day Friday @$12.40, off ~12%. Owned by Greek shipping tycoon, which could have something to do with weak debut.
April 1st, 2012 at 8:42 pmGLNG, which I consider the go-to LNG carrier, has been weak as well.
Generic Question on the site: Is there a way to review comments from all members on a particular stock? In this particular case I am studying ROSE. Thank you.
April 2nd, 2012 at 1:05 pmYou can use the search bar at upper left. That will hit anytime ROSE is mentioned. You can you use the find function in your browser to quickly tab through the post.
By the way, this is the weekend post.
April 2nd, 2012 at 1:07 pm