Wrap – Week Ended 03/30/12 (In Progress)

Print Friendly, PDF & Email


18 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 03/30/12 (In Progress)”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    Weekly Look
    S&P Futures..Notes to myself...The deep low volume node below 1388 continued to reject prices higher last week. The levels from 1388 to 1397.50 have been well auctioned over the past
    two weeks. Friday's close was above the volume range pivot at 1397.75. Majority of recent volume is now below/supportive of current price levels with only light recent overhead
    congestion above. Thick long term congestion above to Major CHVN at 1427.50. Long term volume demand remains supportive with short term demand positive but flat.
    Breadth positive/supportive in all time frames but diverging. Quant Studies..April POMO action peaks on 4/5 with no sales until 4/9.  Early April and
    1st trading day of the month is seasonally strong. NDX and Russell 2000 down 3 days in row but > 50MA while SPX closes at 3 day high is bullish.
    China PMI upside surprise.
    Evidence suggests choppy upside upside bias  likely into early April. Bulls in control above 1397.50.

    S&P Futures Volume Profile

    S&P Breadth(Haurlan Breadth EMAs)

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg, always appreciated the weekly look

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    E&P Weekly
    E&P stocks  short term oversold 3/29 on price range, volume and breadth last week. So far a low volume bounce off support at 56.22.
    Near resistance at 58 with congestion building in the high 58s.Needs volume.
    ZLT Volume/Breadth
    XOP Volume Profile 
    XLE  Overshot major acceptance at 71 and bounced off support at 70. Near resistance 72-72.50, far resistance at 73.
    XLE Volume Profile

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    ZGas Stocks held to the current sideways channel last week. Breadth and volume demand oversold on 3/29. Price, Volume and breadth still weak but
     sell offs showing less intensity.

  5. 5
    brodway Says:

    Wanted to say i enjoyed the Friday gas write-up. Thinking unlike the herd and presenting good historical background is why i believe this is one of the better sites out there.  Over time, i have to agree that gas offers positive risk/reward ratio and i've been adding over the last week to names as REXX, SWN and initiated a position in COG.  "Buy your straw hats in the winter time" certainly applies here.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Thanks much Brod, eyes on the long term prize

  7. 7
    crysball Says:

    Vaalco Energy  [EGY]
    ~2012 Capex  $75 Million  (excl. of Angola) 
    ~2012  Est  Cashflow  $75 million.     
    ~cash  as  of  12/31/2012   $149.1 million  of  which  $12 million is restricted (about $6 million  is for Angola)
    ~debt =ZERO
    2012  Catalyst  List:
    Vaalco Energy 2012 Catalysts
                 Event                            Timeframe        Outcome  
    Granite Wash Well #2 (14 stage frac )                                                           IP  of  10-12 MMCFD and 300 barrels of NGL/day     completed  and  tied in .    Prod. Begins                          April
    Note:Frac started 3/14/12, but mgmt. will
    Be  cautious  because of  experience  on
    The 1st GW Well.

    Reeneter & complete  1st  Poplar Dome

    [Montana Bakken] well based  upon core
    analysis  of  3 of the 5 formations.
    Note: Infrastructure  already  exists  and
    Well in Poplar  Dome  can  be   on
    Production within  weeks of completion.                        June                        IP of  500-1,000 BOPD

    Commitment  to  Drill  Block 5

    Offshore Angola
    ~with   new PSA  Partner & drill Loengo                   late June
    presalt  prospect   or  alternately
    ~without  PSA  partner   & drill  postsalt
    prospect   .                                                                      March 29,2012             Drill 1 Exploratory Well  in Q4
    NOTE: Vaalco committed  in slide #15 of
    The  Howard Weil  Presentation to drill the
    First Exploratory well in Block 5 on 3/29

    Drill 1st  2 exploration Wells  in  Salt Lake

    Prospect [Montana Bakken]  .    These are
    Morel like delineation wells as comps are
    located   all around  them                              start  late May               Drill 2 Exploratory  wells Q3

    Drill 2 more  exploration  wells  in Poplar

    Dome [Montana  Bakken].     Both well
    Will be  Horizontals. Derisks play                                  Q3                           Drill 2 Exploratory  Wells  Q3

    On Shore Gabon [Mutamba concession]

    Drill  1  exploration well with   PSA partner         
    Total                                                                         2nd Half          Drill Exploratory  well    40% Prob. Of success

    Offshore  Gabon[Etame concession] drill

    A  minimum  of  4 (maximum of 6 wells)
    ~1 Exploration/Dev.  well [Ebouri  new fault block]                               Exploratory  33% Prob.
    ~2 to 3  Development wells [2 Ebouri &1 S.                                          Development Wells   95% Prob.
    Tschibala/Avouma  &
    ~1 workover well  (replace esp)                                2nd Half

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Review of Citigroups US energy predictions

  9. 9
    crysball Says:

    Interesting, but not well   thought through  article:

  10. 10
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 1 One of the seasonality trades I follow buys on the close the Monday before the Good Friday holiday and sells at the close on the Thursday before Good Friday.  That combined with the first of month seasonality mentioned in post #1 give some probability of a good 4 day week coming.

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Long and short term volume demand remains positive. Traded into a little low volume air pocket below 49. Volume base at 47

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    WTI hanging $103.50 early. 


  13. 13
    brodway Says:

    re: 11
    Still see a positive chart in ROSE, it may be filling in the move from the low 40's to the low 50's. Actually some oil stocks are starting to test their 200dma and ROSE is only a breath away from that important level. Maybe it tests and continues to go up again.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    re 13 – yeah, noted that the 200 day was close at hand last week for several names, thinking same. Interesting week ahead as payrolls are Friday but US markets will be closed. 

  15. 15
    RB Says:

    Market Watch headline….Australia jumps on Chinese data….and this ain't April fools

  16. 16
    choices Says:

    Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and UBS are lead underwriters to the offering of GLOG, IPO LNG carrier.  Priced @$14, down from original range of $16-$18, closed down on 1st day Friday @$12.40, off ~12%.  Owned by Greek shipping tycoon, which could have something to do with weak debut.
    GLNG, which I consider the go-to LNG carrier, has been weak as well.

  17. 17
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Generic Question on the site: Is there a way to review comments from all members on a particular stock? In this particular case I am studying ROSE. Thank you.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    You can use the search bar at upper left. That will hit anytime ROSE is mentioned. You can you use the find function in your browser to quickly tab through the post. 

    By the way, this is the weekend post. 

Leave a Reply

Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… is is proudly powered by Wordpress
Navigation Theme by GPS Gazette