24
Mar

Wrap – Week Ended 03/23/12 (In Progress)

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More comments to follow over the weekend ...

 

Holdings Watch:

53 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 03/23/12 (In Progress)”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    OT..Macro reading from Ray Dalio
    http://www.bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/research/deleveraging/an-in-depth-look-at-deleveragings–ray-dalio-bridgewater.pdf

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    Kuwait and Oil Price
    http://news.kuwaittimes.net/2012/03/24/cabinet-escapes-pay-revision-quandary-oil-must-hit-109-5-to-meet-state-expenditure-official/

  3. 3
    brodway Says:

    Zorg.
    thanks for the support levels you provided on some ideas i was looking to add to on on Thursday.
    on a separate note, i was listening to Bloomberg radio yesterday and there was one commentary that had caught my attention. i could not believe my ears when i heard them say that  "natural gas at these prices could be the best investment idea of the decade". 
    i was closely looking at COG at 31 and think it may be finding support in here. of course already own SWN, RRC And REXX

  4. 4
    brodway Says:

    COG has found support at 30-31 range numerous times since last year.
     First in July of 2011, then August 2011, September 2011, January 2012 and now in March of 2012. 

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    Economic Contraction/Miles Driven
    http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/DOT-Miles-Driven.php

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

     

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    #3&4.brod .you are welcome ..
    Re COG.Wild little pony.I see what you mean about the 30-31 area. The volume profile shows current acceptance has settled down around 33 and the stretches from value have reverted nicely.. from either direction. The value areas (70% all volume traded) are from 29.95 to 38.54 for the last year or so. I've never traded this one though I've watched lustfully at times as it puts up those big % days from time to time. I likely will not trade it unless Z comes up with a value on it and I can find a volume support level to lean against..but that's just me. I've got a snoot full of gas names as it is.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/03/24/Stock_Composite_2.png

  8. 8
    brodway Says:

    wanted to mention that ROSE has become real "springy" of late. mostly has significant jumps to the upside and retreats slow to the downside. this has the workings of accumulation and probably higher stock price going forward.  i would not be surprised to see new all time highs by the summer.

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    Weekly Chart Watch ..
    S&P Futures.
    A Pull back from 50 day highs began to define the current levels where bigger time frame buyers and sellers concentrated after the recent run. It also gave a better
    short term risk/reward entry that ran to minor resistance at 1394.50 by the close Friday. The bigger picture is dominated by dense congestion above 1400 that suggests any higher trading will
    be choppy and slow without major news catalysts.
    Key Levels This Week
    1399.25   Large buyers were not comfortable above this level. Selling dominated this level. The attempted extension to the Major CHVN/congestion at 1409.50 was turned back with only
                      light volume traded. Need to see a volume supported move above 1401.50 for a breakout attempt to make much progress.
    1394.25   Minor CLVN offered minor support and now resistance. Friday's HOD was 1394.50, Close 1394.25. Range pivot. Bears will not want to see price auction much higher than this.
    1388.50   Buyers acceptance of this area grew last week. Bulls want to see continued acceptance on any retest.
    1382        This minor support CLVN was rejected/bought twice last week and price returned to 1388.50.
    1377        Minor CHVN/Congestion. May offer weak support.
    1366-70  Major CLVN. Likely strong support area.

    Volume Only
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/03/25/ES_Weekly.png
    Price/Volume
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/03/25/ES_Composite.png

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    Areas of Interest
    DVN broke out of  it's long and short term volume base at 68 on 2/15/12. Tested resistance at 76.25
    Traded back to a 20 day low and volume support at 70.22 on the biggest one day drop in the last 10, on very little volume. Traded up on Friday.
    Long and short term volume demand positive and improving. . I'm short puts atm.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/03/25/Stock_Composite_2.png

     

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Futures (June) continue to build acceptance at the 107 area. Support 104.75. Major acceptance at 100
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/03/25/CL_Weekly_2.png

  12. 12
    brodway Says:

    Zorg.
    Based on the support levels in post 9, it seems that we are going 1 step back and 2 steps forward since the beginning of the year. with the S&P trading over 1400 to boot, i think we may have entered some new territory and may continue seeing higher S&P predictions this summer. As i've stated before, my opinion is that the bull market, albeit very volatile, continues to move forward from the 2009 lows.
    Banks finally started to move higher. Commodities, equipment and energy (especially gas) having come down since last year may be incredible buys once China gets back on track. 

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    RT @PIMCO: Gross: #Fed likely to hint @ QE3 in April meeting.

  14. 14
    brodway Says:

    Re: 10
    DVN has been on a trend higher since the end of last year and i've traded in and out of it several times. I like the mid 60's as support, but i don't think we get there as the trend has been higher.  I have to concur with your thinking that 70 may be the new support and my very basic chart is telling me that the new move will be higher with 85 as the new resistance level to breach. 
    The one single factor, however, that tells me that the trend is higher and not lower is the 10+ million share volume it established in mid February. This was the highest volume for the stock in over 2 years. 
    I like your strategy with the puts. I've been actively doing this with OAS and NOG for several months now and have taken in some serious premium which i'm now using to buy up shares.

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    Relative Profit Margins- Energy…page 31 on…
    http://www.yardeni.com/Pub/ppphb.pdf

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    re 15 – thanks but he needs to break out oily from gassy names for that to be of use. The ZLT profit margins look nothing like that red line on average. 

  17. 17
    brodway Says:

    re: 13
    There was much discussion on this on Bloomberg yesterday and the consensus opinion was that any QE3 would be of the twist quality where it would concentrate on the purchase of the longer horizon debt. Not sure if this wold add anything constructive other than some noise and the idea that the Fed continues to be monitoring economic activity and accommodating in fiscal policy

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    Need suggestions, additions, subtractions on which symbols best capture the gassy stocks as a group . Presently I have CHK DMLP DVN ECA EOG MCF RRC SWN UPL .
    XOM?

  19. 19
    Zorgnak Says:

    #16..I thought that would get a rise out of you…

  20. 20
    brodway Says:

    Zman.
    i know you said March/April are going to be a non-event for many gassy/oily names, but some of the gassy names are really taking it on the chin here. when would you suggest would be a good time to start adding to positions. i have a trigger finger looking to load up on COG, REXX, SWN and RRC. 

  21. 21
    elduque Says:

    Don Coxe's latest Basic Points can be found at Postcards from South Africa Blog. 

  22. 22
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 12:  Looks to me like the ball is in China's court.  Commodities, especially oil, sold off this week due to weak Chinese data.  The rally on Friday was at least partially due to thinking that China would move to stimulate their economy soon, perhaps as early as Sunday evening (today).  This needs to be watched.  

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Brodway – to be clear, what I have been saying is that we could see a test of $2 during the shoulder season and that things are going to be sloppy during this time. I do think we are not going into a sub $2 environment for any length of time. So most but maybe not all of the damage has been done. The names were actually putting in bottoms in February and March and last week was in my view only noise in that process. SWN retreated with the broad market and the first injection of the year but not through its January lows, not even close. Same goes for RRC. REXX I hold for other reasons and it got closer but really its within its recent base. PVA too.  I have started adding to a handful of gassy names but I'm going slow, as always. And I'm not going in for a small pop and out. I'm adding to names where I won't mind adding 50% higher in 9 to 12 months should natural gas start to respond. Rigs have come off like this before with little response from gas supply. Demand is stronger now but the inventory of drilled but not yet completed wells remains as a brake on just how fast gas production will arrive and then fall. 

  24. 24
    brodway Says:

    Nrgyman.
    I'm looking to pull the trigger on JOY and FCX as they have come down to some very strong support areas. Just need some confirmation that China is not looking to continue to slow down much longer.

  25. 25
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 18:  Good list.  For a pure natgas name, also look at XCO.  Wilbur Ross is heavily accumulating it.  When natgas turns it should have serious upside. 

  26. 26
    brodway Says:

    re: 23
    the one difference in our trading strategies is that i hold both an investment and a trading position. i like to take advantage of drops in the names i already own for 20-30% trading profit while continuing to hold the core for longer term trends. i hope i'm not coming across like i'm dense. i for one like to hear from time to time your input on the shorter term drops and how to take advantage of them. 

  27. 27
    Zorgnak Says:

    #17….if late March is any indication of a trend into April I'd say the Fed has stopped draining $ for a while. The number of net positive POMO events and net amount of $ injections is on the rise again after a period of withdrawal. BTW none of this reflects money injected via  SWAPS that was ongoing during the recent Euro zone mini panic. New POMO schedule due out in early April will be interesting to see. The market has been able to rise in spite of the relative lack of money being injected since last October. This is all just a science experiment  to me. POMO has been a very definite factor in the past but like all the back testing I've ever done the correlations may or may not hold up as the rest of world begins to front run the past known inputs.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/pomochart-2.png

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    RE 18 – XOM is a no. On the bigger end add ECA. I would take out EOG as well, most revenue coming from liquids now. MCF is a weirdo of a name, very oddball, I don't think they really are reflective either. REXX, GDP should be in there, PVA too. QEP, KWK to round it out. 

  29. 29
    brodway Says:

    re: 18
    Zorg. I have to repeat that CHK has been resilient since early February and has continued to hold as other names have come down. Its obvious there is serious accumulation in the name and with any good news it goes higher.

  30. 30
    Zorgnak Says:

    #25 re XCO..will do, thanks. Should it contain REXX?

  31. 31
    Zorgnak Says:

    #28 gracias

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    re 26 – Not that different since I have Core and Trading positions. My trading positions can be on for many months but that's the same basic idea. 

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Off to play with interns in the sunshine, AC on today … that's early for the season  😉

  34. 34
    brodway Says:

    the GDP chart is really starting to come together nicely. The move from 18 to 20 was really impressive. I have to thank Zman for this idea as i've never heard of this stock before and now sporting a 40% gain in the stock when i took a position in late December.

  35. 35
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 24:  Agreed.  I recently added FCX and CLF on the pullback.  Will add more on confirmation.  I could be early but I see the same thing you do.  Also, Check out the chart on GLD.  That looks like a classic head and shoulders bottom.  I'm thinking of taking in some mining shares to play that, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.  Finally, XOP looks like it has pulled back into support and bounced on above average (slightly) volume.  That would be bullish for the ZLT names–I like the Bakken names here.  Of course, China is the driver for all of these commodities so their moves must be closely monitored.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    And Brod, not being dense, I just am probably not all that useful on the really short term stuff as its less than a few percent at any given time of what I do.

  37. 37
    Zorgnak Says:

    Here's a look at the ZGas index comprised of the following gas stocks. CHK DMLP DVN ECA GDP KWK PVA QEP REXX RRC SWN UPL XCO. I'll attempt to post  it when it
    reaches points of interest.
    Chart #1, Top pane tracks the basic price and volume. Lower Pane(Haurlan Index) shows the short,, intermediate and long term EMA's of the net advance/decline difference for the stocks in the index.   Currently it reflects the improving
    breadth in all three time periods.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZGas.png
    Chart # 2 Top pane is the basic index. Middle Pane contains  the overbought/oversold levels measured by the % of declining stocks. Lower Pane are the overbought/oversold levels measured by  the spread between % of up/down volume in the individual stocks. The last oversold readings in breadth and volume 3/22.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZGas2.png

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg, good stuff. 

  39. 39
    nrgyman Says:

    Z, what are your thoughts about IO?  After the big sell-off, the chart looks interesting again.  

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    re 39 – I have no current thoughts there. Last I looked at them was probably 6 months ago and I recall they were painting a better picture at the time but then disappointed. My track record with the seismic guys is not good but I can take another look if you like. 

  41. 41
    brodway Says:

    re: 35
    CLF is not my list as well, but liking the low 60's in that one. 
    Will check out GLD

  42. 42
    brodway Says:

    re: 41should have said ON MY LIST

  43. 43
    brodway Says:

    Did anyone spot Cramer mention TPLM on Friday in his lightning round?
    Triangle Petroleum [TPLM  7.24    0.18  (+2.55%)   ]: “Too speculative,” Cramer said, suggesting Magnum Hunter Resources [MHR  7.14    0.01  (+0.14%)   ] instead.
     
    I'm becoming more convinced there is much he claims he is an expert in that he really knows little about.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    re 43 – welcome to the club. He'll like it later, higher, no doubt. 

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Howard Weil already spawning press releases … some of this is likely good for BCEI

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/noble-energy-provides-operational-highlights-210100727.html

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Oil at $107 in early trading

    http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

    Saw Dicker tweeting about new Israeli piece movement that will in his words drop gasoline prices … I rather doubt that will work. 

  47. 47
    choices Says:

    Guru ratings-many are a lot higher than I would have graded:
    http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
    It's funny when the gurus start slamming one another: can't figure Abby Jo being so high, at least she beat Prechter-Cramer seems about average-go figure:
    http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2012/03/the-seduction-of-market-timing.html

  48. 48
    Zorgnak Says:

    Need suggestions, additions and deletions to a coal producers index. Here are the symbols currently in the index below.
    ACI AHGP ANR ARLP BHP BTU CLD CLF CNA EEE JRCC LLEN NRP OXF PCX PVR RIO RNO WLT YZC
    Index and breadth showing breadth beginning to turn up in all time frames
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZCoal-1.png

  49. 49
    nrgyman Says:

    Sorry if this article was posted previously, but it is significant and goes beyond US Steel.  Low-priced, abundant, cleaner, domestic natgas is the means by which an increasing number of domestic companies (and potentially foreign firms locating plants into the US) are reducing energy costs in order to compete globally.  Industrial use of domestic natgas has promising growth prospects due to global competitiveness issues in key industries.  Such an environment has not existed for ages in this country and many firms have never even considered natgas substitution or the competitive advantages of US natgas until now.  This is clearly a bullish factor for natgas and the US economy, but may also be a bearish factor for domestic met coal producers, who will need to increasingly rely on exports to countries who cannot substitute cheap natgas in steel-making operations.  With the industrial demand for natgas growing meaningfully, with electric power conversions to natgas from thermal coal, with the conversion potential from heating oil and LNG imports for domestic heating, and the huge potential for natgas transportation, I have been thinking that exporting natgas may not even be necessary (or wise) for the domestic natgas industry to flourish.  Any type of policy push from DC toward more domestic use of natgas for all of the above would make this even more obvious.  
     
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/03/21/u-s-steel-looks-to-natural-gas-to-offset-high-input-costs/

  50. 50
    nrgyman Says:

    Despite last week's drop in the market (SPY -.46%) and particularly in energy stocks (XOP -3.07%, OIH -4.95%), there were some energy stocks that GAINED on the week–clearly showing relative strength compared to many of their peers:  
    Notable E&P winners:  KOG +1.83%, TPLM +4.17%, MHR +0.71%, ECA +0.20%, HK +5.64%
    Notable energy service winners:  FTK +1.70%, CJES +0.16%, CLB +0.86%

  51. 51
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 50:  CRZO +0.83% last week, showing relative strength, should be added to the list.

  52. 52
    Zorgnak Says:

    Barlcay's on Oil Services: Big 4 ($WFT $SLB $BHI $HAL) Disconnect with Oil Prices/Multiples, Group Trades at 34% Discount to P/E 5yr. Avg.
    RT

  53. 53
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures smell QE after Ben's speech released

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