Monday Morning – Spring Break Day 2

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Still on Spring Break but here's a fresh post to comment under. Thanks much to all for last friday's comments. Last week ended on a strong note for the group but without much in the way of sector news aside from continued strength in crude (oil ended just under $108) and lack of significant further weakness in natural gas.

Notes from weekend reading (I'm on a tiny wireless keyboard so I won't be overly chatty)

RIG - rates moving back up to what I recall as the old cycle highs for some deepwater floaters at $695,000 day rate ... strong sign for long term oil price thinking.

Gas rig count off 7 to 10 year low at 663. As is always the case, price will fix price.

Poland expected to say gas shale estimates are 1 TCM, about 1/5 of what industry has been thinking ...not great for FXEN.

SWN - news from them or COG in the not too distant future re Brown Dense play.

EXXI / MMR Davy Jones news in the any day now category, now through H Weil.

New recent highs: GDP/ROSE

BCEI reports 4Q results on Friday ... Look for inline quarter, numbers not the real issue given this their first as a public name although if November's production was representative of mid point of the quarter they show easily best on the EBITDA line. Look for one new Wattenberg HZ well to talk about and additional Brown Dense play acreage.

GMXR - retreating almost enough for me to think about having another look but not yet

Thanks for the offers of beer/dinner, much appreciated but arrived in Jersey City late last night and off to Bethany beach late this afternoon. Rain check and I'll do the buying.

137 Responses to “Monday Morning – Spring Break Day 2”

  1. 1
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Comments on ATPG from a fixed income perspective (lots of balls to juggle)
    ATP Oil & Gas Corp. (ATPG) – Takeaways from Q4 Conference Call

    On Friday, ATPG held its Q4 conference call where it provided additional details on the quarter and recent activity. Management reiterated its Q1 production guidance of 19.8 to 23.1 Mboe/d, down from Q4’s 24.8 Mboe/d average. ATPG said the lower guidance reflected some workovers and safety precautions at its MC 942 A-1 well and as a result expects to add another 1.5 Mboe/d of production at the well upon completion. In addition, management said highlighted that its newest Telemark well didn’t come online until late February, but indicated that so far production has held in around its initial rate of 7 Mboe/d. Once all of its workover and recompletion work is complete management expects production to be in the 29 to 32 Mboe/d range from its current 23 Mboe/d.
    The bulk of the call focused on liquidity and ATPG reiterated that it has several levers it could pull if cash gets tight. For instance, in early March, ATPG signed two overriding royalty interests at Gomez for $80 million and did a $19 million prepayment swap. In addition, management discussed the possibility of selling a stake in its Chevoit operations in the North Sea and expects to close a deal in 2H/12. For its Octabuoy production platform that is currently under construction, ATPG is completing long term financing including a potential sale leaseback to raise roughly $400 million.
    ATPG set its capex budget at $400 to $500 million, in-line with our expectations and management’s previous comments. However, management indicated that if liquidity gets tight it can defer spending at Gomez or on its Octabuoy until 2013. In addition, management expects to add more NPIs and overrides and thought roughly a third of revenues was a fair run rate.
    We think ATPG has many long-term obstacles to overcome including its disappointing reserve replacement data. However, we think the nearly 16% current yield looks attractive in the short-run as we feel ATPG should be able to cover its cash costs this year and as the 11.875s are trading near the low end of its recent range

  2. 2
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Apple starts the week out on a positive note… paying a dividend and buying back stock with some of it's cash stockpile.  Stock trading up almost $10 in premrkt.

  3. 3
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    A few natty gas comments on bloomberg this morning
    Natgas Unlikely to Drop ‘Significantly’ Lower: Pritchard Capital
    2012-03-19 11:57:06.337 GMT
    By Arie Shapira
         March 19 (Bloomberg) — Natgas unlikely to drop “significantly” lower due to pricing pressure from stored gas at this time, Pritchard Capital writes in note.
      * Expects “slow steady” oversupply of market vs quick
        release of large quantities to preserve viability of storage
      * Doesn’t see reduced incentive for coal-to-gas switching
        unless coal prices fall “dramatically” lower
      * Top fundamental picks: CRZO, CXO, EXXI, GDP, PETD
      * Natgas down 1% today to $2.30/Mmbtu vs CRB up 0.6%; had
        traded as high as ~$5 in mid-June
      * NOTE: Capital One Southcoast said March 6 gassy E&Ps have
        “similar upside” to oily names; link {NSN M0H8T86VDKK1
      * NOTE: Morgan Stanley said 2/28 natgas unlikely to see
        “sharp” selloff into Oct., may trade in $2.50-$3 range
        through injection season;

  4. 4
    elduque Says:

    TED still basically unch'ed at .39
    BDI continues to get marked up a little each day +5 to 879
    Have a great day everybody.

  5. 5
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PVA bonds 10 3/8s quoted 98.25 bid and 99.25 offered at JPMo.

  6. 6
    RB Says:

    EXXI at Friday, week ago high…like to see it take that out 37.33

  7. 7
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Event-driven stocks MMR/EXXI (Davy Jones) and MHR (cancelling out of Howard Weil… high yield bond deal?  MLP?) = all stong out of the gate this morning.

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    CRZO..If you like CRZO and breakouts this one looks good

  9. 9
    RB Says:

    FTK blasting through minor resistance…dat's why Z and so many others on this board aren't chart monkeys

  10. 10
    elduque Says:

    GST up 17% over the last two days. Anybody got a clue why?

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Strong Relative volume
    GST    9.15%
    EGY    4.09%
    SFY    3.61%
    GEOI    3.61%
    MHR    3.50%
    FTK    3.17%
    PVA    2.99%
    CRK    3.08%
    REXX    2.58%
    BBG    1.85%
    CLNE    1.71%
    PQ    1.83%
    OAS    1.59%
    CHK    1.44%
    HDY    1.43%
    DVN    1.32%
    PXP    1.27%
    ECA    1.22%
    MMR    1.27%
    XEC    1.15%
    CXO    0.96%
    DNR    1.07%
    BAS    0.76%
    HAL    0.72%
    CLR    0.63%
    MUR    0.36%
    END    0.47%
    EPL    0.38%
    CVX    0.24%
    SWN    0.20%
    CAM    0.11%
    PXD    0.10%
    EOG    0.02%
    NOG    -0.05%
    NFX    -0.17%
    LINE    -0.16%
    APA    -0.35%
    AXAS    -0.61%
    XCO    -0.77%
    CIE    -0.96%
    AREX    -0.98%
    NOV    -0.96%

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP hits $20.  Well…
    And PVA up at $5.15.  That was a good fundamental call, z.  Seems like Mr. Market is turning his attention to nat gas and thinking "buy low… "  If what Pritchard thinks is true, this is around the bottom for gassy molecules… unless coal prices fall a lot.  Could be a long, hot summer. 

  13. 13
    Dillon Says:

    Good morning all, Rexx has a small fire underneath it this morning.

  14. 14
    Dillon Says:

    re 13 – goes along with what BOP said in 12.

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    re #10  Nice one

  16. 16
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Some things are worth repeating (over and over…. i know… still, here goes):
    For balance, stablitiy, and upside, who is better looking than EXXI, I ask ya. 
    EXXI has a stable plate-full of oily (and some nat gassy) low-risk development projects as far as the eye can see.  And oil-biased production (sold at LLS and HLS prices) that is gushing cash.  Add to all this lovable ball of fuzzy joy the upside from the Ultra Deep (being driven by MMR and JimBob).  Nat gas molecules at low-cost producer status.  Then (as if you need more) the M&A possibilities.  Anything that Shiller does will all that cash is accretive (as Mr. Market does not put an earnings or EBITDAX multiple on cash).  And the cherry on top?  EXXI will merge and/or get gobbled up at some point.
    Lovely stock.  One to keep in mind, whenever the mrkt sells off.

  17. 17
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Maybe reef can weigh in on GST.  Whatever is moving the stock isn't apparent from a company PR.

  18. 18
    Justin Says:

    Does NFX become a good way to play "NG won't be dead forever"?

  19. 19
    elduque Says:

    nat gas clearing above 2.35

  20. 20
    Zorgnak Says:

    FTK  Looks like sellers still hanging out at minor resistance at 12.55…volume demand good and improving though, to my eye

  21. 21
    RB Says:

    re: 16…many, many thanks for bringing that one to us.  one thing you didn't mention, and it is very important is that Schiller is very competent, very focused and last but not least delivers his message very well.  I mean how much clearer can a guy get when he says " we ask ourselves how can we screw this up"…..I listen to calls where many CEO's have something going nicely and can't relate it even a little bit…

  22. 22
    elduque Says:

    Justin – I think NFX is a good way to play energy whether oil or gas. They are in the middle of a transition period and don't have a "sexy"  new play to brag about. They think it is the Cana-Woodforde and the Uinta, but have been not willing to announce any well results. Management is conservative and doesn't appear to have any desire to hype their stock. Just have to be patient.

  23. 23
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I don't follow NFX closely enough anymore to be an informed opinion.  But I would think a rising tide would raise all the boats. 

  24. 24
    Zorgnak Says:

    PVA…a number stocks toying with breakouts on good volume today….I had 5.10 as the breakout number for PVA

  25. 25
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RB — #21 thanks for pointing that out.  When Schiller made that "how can we screw this up" statement on the call, I had the same reaction.  Poster Child for competence and focus.  You won't find him suddenly taking an acreage position in the Niobrara or Granite Wash.  The guy just sticks to what he knows best… and that has made himself (and his stockholders) much much moola.

  26. 26
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elqudue — thanks much for chiming in on NFX.

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    This might explain the recent moves in GST

  28. 28
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs….Trading within Friday's very narrow range now…breakout potential building below resistance at 1400.25

  29. 29
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Wow.  MMR can sure turn on a dime.  Volatility can cut both ways until we get some real DJ news.  Until then, beware the FUD… but keep in mind that they may have to frack a couple of zones to fill up the tubing to 75mm/d or so.  And — like everything else at this temperature and depth — will not be a weekend project. 

  30. 30
    Zorgnak Says:

    Is it just the CEO issue that hangs over APC?

  31. 31
    Zorgnak Says:

    Libya back on line

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #29 — actually, to more technically-correct, i should have said MMR may have to perf another zone (not frack).  This is not a fracking operation.  Just blast holes in the production pipe and let the formation flow naturally.

  33. 33
    RB Says:

    Goldman downgraded NFX from buy to neutral this morning…maybe a couple more diss the name and it builds a nice buyable base….I"ve been writing $35 puts on it, going out thirty days for a couple of months…picks up 2.5% or so for my capital…nice return and if I get the stock, fine by me.

  34. 34
    Dillon Says:

    re 27 – BOP – he mentions SOQ on there. That is one that I have mentioned here before and I believe is severely undervalued currently and especially for what lies ahead in the coming months. May be worth taking a look at. Fair warning: I do own it.

  35. 35
    Zorgnak Says:

    NOG..hanging out above 21.50 support/double bottom..

  36. 36
    Zorgnak Says:

    # 34..those NFX 35's were golden last month..thanks for the idea

  37. 37
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dillon — #34 thanks for pointing that out.  I think the best stock recommendations come from people who actually own the stock they are talking about.  (Unless you're a boiler-room hypster, of course… which no one here is.)  I put more value in an analayst who has to "eat his own cooking" than one who merely opines from the sidelines.

  38. 38
    Zorgnak Says:

    Euro going vertical into thin overhead….

  39. 39
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P O/N High at 1402.75…next area of interest

  40. 40
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    BOP or Zorg; do either of you have an opinion on the uninspired price action of COSWF or ERF?  ERF the issue appears to be capex in excess of cashflow; plus they did an equity offering at these levels; so maybe the supply keeping a lid on the price; COSWF has well documented cap-ex the next two years; the issue may be the price of syncrude versus WTI; the pipeline back-up February well known and a past issue; Keystone is a long term issue and I find it hard to believe relevant to current buyers or sellers.

  41. 41
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Paul — i don't follow those names.  But both appear to be sort of "trust-like."  COSWF pays a dividend that yields 5.4% and ERF 9.2%.  So it looks like you are getting cash flow (vs stock price appreciation).  Of the two, when investing in something in order to get dividends, one would have to be biased toward the company with the most well-understood outlook (capex vs production).  Sorry I can't be more help here. 

  42. 42
    elduque Says:

    PWE  and SU is cheap on a relative basis as well. They are unable to capture the higher price of crude because there is no way to get the production out of Canada, in the short term. 

  43. 43
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    this is helpful; it is also what I have thought; these names will follow change in cash flow.  We will see what the year holds but the cash flow may be large due to obvious price; first quarter numbers will show the impact of the midwest oversupply versus other global regions.

  44. 44
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Blocking the construction of the Keystone pipeline (after years of environmental studies have already been completed) is just like an episode of the Twilight Zone.  So completely bizarre and surreal.  So absolutely a political move and not a practical one.  Boggles my mind.  (But so does Ken Salazar… as secy of the Interior… so comes with the territory, i guess.)
    The good news about all this is that those reserves will still be there, once sanity returns to the room.  And — unless i'm missing my guess — will be available for sale at much higher prices.

  45. 45
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    eld; i agree; but last year syncrdue traded at a premium to WTI all year and COSWF cratered.  IMO that security is ripe for takeout; especially by the partbers in Syncrude; although I am sure Canadian law has some hoops to jump through;  COP sold its Syncrude interest in 2010 for an equivalent $40 per share to Sinopec.  This reminds me of the refinery issue; you can buy at a huge discount in the stock market compared to building a new refinery on a per barrel basis and the asset alue is meaningless to the share price; the high capital low margin business always has these securities priced at a discount. 

  46. 46
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    I think in the end the oil will go East; the Canadian givt wants the revenue

  47. 47
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    Far East!  not NYC

  48. 48
    elduque Says:

    RE GST – What was interesting in the article, was the comment about Encana finding oil on property adjacent to GST in east Texas. Would that be the same property "that the gang that couldn't shoot straight" were unable to drill successfully last year???

  49. 49
    Stewart Says:

    SSn perky..anyone see any news?

  50. 50
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    In the end, I think Keystone gets built.  But call me an optimist, if you will.

  51. 51
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    But agreed, Paul.  That oil will not just sit there and howl at the moon.  It will be shipped out.  Somewhere.

  52. 52
    Popeye Says:

    TPLM not doing to bad either today.

  53. 53
    reefguy Says:

    48- Its all about execution, and the "gang" cannot

  54. 54
    elduque Says:

    re GDP- somebody must know something about Tuscaloosa well results. Yes/no?????

  55. 55
    petrodollar Says:

    Is this old news?:
    Magnum Hunter Resources Corporation (NYSE:MHR): After meeting with Magnum Hunter, BMO Capital believes that the company could sell a minority interest in its Eureka Hunter Pipeline, greatly increasing the valuation ascribed to this asset. The firm believes that such a deal could increase the stock’s value by about $2.50 per share and it maintains an Outperform rating on the shares.

  56. 56
    Sheentaa Says:

    BOP. Thanks for the info over the weekend. Also note after CRZO's asset sales last week, that CRK has sold $165MM of assets to mitigate liquidity concerns and finance transition from 5% liquids in 11 going to 20+% in 13.

  57. 57
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    petro — thank you for posting.  It is not old news.  But it did sneak into the market on Friday…. hence the impressive move starting then.

  58. 58
    Zorgnak Says:

    Paul  re ERF …….Only thing I can make of it is that it has traded back to it's short and long term value area….lot's of consensus on value between 23-24 but no trading edge to my eye now.
    COSWF's volume makes it hard for me to get a read..sorry

  59. 59
    Zorgnak Says:

    Currency and Crude futs supporting more upside atm
    Euro…continues vertically
    Crude Oil trading above volume support (VPOC) at 108 on the day

  60. 60
    skibbi9 Says:

    @50, do we think that Obama helps delay it significantly for his pal, Buffett with his transport by railroad profits?
    Anyone know the WHZ offering date?

  61. 61
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    COSWF you would have to look at Toronot exchange volume (COS); although i doubt any insight over there either!

  62. 62
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    skibbi — i sure hope that isn't the case… but I'm not part of the Inner Circle at the White House these days…
    According to bloomberg, WHZ is expected to pricde on 3/22. 

  63. 63
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 40:  I've been in and out of COSWF and SU over the past two years.  They both are extremely cheap at current values.  As BOP indicated, COSWF is like a trust.  It has a low growth rate due to the huge capital requirements needed just to maintain production.  But it does refine it's own bitumen into high quality light sweet crude.  they have been plagued with production and maintenance problems, which has caused investors to lose confidence in the stock.  IMO would be the logical player to buy them out, but they probably don't see a high enough IRR compared to other options.  So I have stayed away from COSWF for these reasons.  SU has decent growth and is the cheapest of all NAM large cap producers–all in oil, with a downstream component.  Huge, long-life reserves, so no exploration costs.  Stock is down currently due to unplanned maintenance at a refinery.  FWIW, I bought into a position this morning.

  64. 64
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    With the stock flying, the PVA 10 3/8s are up 1/2 point to 98.75 bid / 99.75 offered.

  65. 65
    Zorgnak Says:

    #62..Paul here's the COS chart off the Canadian exchange in Loonies….COS trading in balance, right at acceptance at 21.80. Under 20.50 looks interesting to me…also notice that it's trading a higher low as volume demand appears to be just beginning to turn more positive

  66. 66
    tomdavis12 Says:

    WHZ: Update will look to price Thurs after the close. RayJ & MorganS leads. 8 others in group. Price range $19 – $21. Deal size 16mm.

  67. 67
    tomdavis12 Says:

    64: I paid more today because of desk markup & vigorish. 

  68. 68
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    Zorg; as always thx for your insights.

  69. 69
    isleworth Says:

    Tks Tom for WHZ update. WHX unable to find stock to short at four locations. Have sold some Sept $15 in the money calls……

  70. 70
    crysball Says:

    A little  humor   in Off Topic Hour:

    California :

    The Governor of California is jogging with his dog along a nature

    A coyote jumps out and attacks the Governor's dog, then bites the

    1. The Governor starts to intervene, but reflects upon the movie
    "Bambi" and then realizes he should stop because the coyote is only doing what is natural.

    2. He calls animal control. Animal Control captures the coyote
    and bills the State $200 testing it for diseases and $500 for relocating it.

    3. He calls a veterinarian. The vet collects the dead dog and
    bills the State $200 testing it for diseases.

    4. The Governor goes to hospital and spends $3,500 getting checked for diseases from the coyote and on getting his bite wound bandaged.

    5. The running trail gets shut down for 6 months while Fish & Game conducts a $100,000 survey to make sure the area is now free of dangerous animals.

    6. The Governor spends $50,000 in state funds implementing a
    "coyote awareness program" for residents of the area.

    7. The State Legislature spends $2 million to study how to better
    treat rabies and how to permanently eradicate the disease throughout the world.

    8. The Governor's security agent is fired for not stopping the
    attack. The State spends $150,000 to hire and train a new agent with additional special training re: the nature of coyotes.

    9. PETA protests the coyote's relocation and files a $5 million suit
    against the State.


    The Governor of nORTH  Dakota is jogging with his dog along a nature
    trail. A Coyote jumps out and attacks his dog.

    1. The Governor shoots the coyote with his State-issued pistol and
    keeps jogging. The Governor has spent $0.50 on a .45 ACP hollow point cartridge.

    2. The Buzzards eat the dead coyote.

    And that, my friends, is another reason  why California is broke and North Dakota is not.


  71. 71
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…Broke above resistance in the 1400 area, now support. From here on up it's into much taller grass and likely slower going.. . . 1427.50 Major Acceptance above (not expected today). Anything can happen of course….

  72. 72
    nrgyman Says:

    Following up on BOP's suggestion from last week that we discuss the prospects of certain energy-related names during this week while Z is enjoying some deserved time away, I will offer some thoughts.  One valuation statistic that I like to use to screen stocks for possible investment is the PEG ratio.  It is crude because it uses the PE ratio and the analysts projected 5 yr growth rate, and each have shortcomings.  But it is a readily available number and it is one of few that attempts to capture the growth potential in a name and how the market currently values that growth potential.  With a PEG ratio less than 1 your chances are improved that you are not overpaying for growth.  Of the names I follow, here are the E&P names with PEG ratios less than 0.60, which may be considered very cheap in relation to growth prospects:  SD 0.18, KOG 0.25, GPOR 0.26, EOG 0.33, CRZO 0.43, SU 0.46, DNR 0.48, NOG 0.48, OAS 0.56.
     Some names I couldn't find a current PEG ratio for:  TPLM, MHR, SSN, CIE, BCEI, BIR.TO
    Perhaps a name on the PEG ratio list above may be worth discussing.  Perhaps others have prospects they would prefer to discuss.  I welcome all thoughts.

  73. 73
    elduque Says:

    PVA doing quite nicely today. Another great pick by Z.

  74. 74
    Zorgnak Says:

    #67…anyone care to venture a price they couldn't refuse to buy on WHZ?

  75. 75
    Zorgnak Says:

    #74….BOP called him the "alligator' the other day. I was thinking more like Godzilla

  76. 76
    Zorgnak Says:

    REXX ripping

  77. 77
    tomdavis12 Says:

    69 Isle: Interesting idea. The only problem I have seen with that is the spread on the options. Must show patience which is not my strong suit.

  78. 78
    elduque Says:

    ZAZA comes out with earnings on the 23rd. Does anybody on the board have any thoughts. Haven't looked at it since the merger. 

  79. 79
    Justin Says:

    RE: 72
    For me, I make sure the E&P's meet a group of hurdle metrics with multiple of cash flow and their leverage having more weighting than some of the others.  While PEG hasn't been on the list consistently, I think it's pertinent to add.
    I don't trade a how frequently, so I attach a lot of value to the old fashioned DCF using a conservative price deck for the commodity and some inflation on drilling and LOE.

  80. 80
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Just to throw out how clueless I can be, I posted some thoughts on the Friday – weekend page when Z had already opened a Spring Br page 2. The only thing worth reporting is that the bear story for NOG last week was small BB's costs are rising higher than rev. & Quad March witching would be bad. I do not believe any of that but I will continue to try & find the bear story. I bot more EXXI & NOG this morning.     

  81. 81
    Justin Says:

    Eld –
    Thanks for the NFX color. 
    Did you decided to hang around for more TAT punishement?  I punted in a taxable account, but held some in my others.

  82. 82
    RobBanks Says:

    re 55, BMO meets with MHR management and suggests MHR might be selling a minority interest in the Eureka Hunter pipeline.
    Well…on the CC Evans said they had been actively seeking a partner and had some "very exciting news" that would be announced soon. So I'm thinking what they hinted to BMO was nothing new, but if BMO opines on it as something new, it can move the stock.

  83. 83
    Justin Says:

    RE: 79 & 81
    Sorry for the typos gang.  Trying to fat finger fajitas and my board posts. 

  84. 84
    andy Says:

    ISLE   re 69   i was short calls, but when they went to no premium they were exercised, and then forced to cover my short position. 
    tom d   – are either merrill or fidelity in selling group for WHZ?

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Thanks, nrgyman.  Interesting list.  I've seen GPOR show up in a few places lately… usually, when you hear about a name from different directions, it's worth spending some time to check out. 
    I'm interested in CRZO.  Why?  Because (like PVA) they have a fair amount of debt.  And at this point in the cycle (if natty gas is truly at a bottom), then leverage works to enhance equity returns.  Just personally, I don't use PEG as the "E" in energy stocks can be a tricky animal.  I like to use various forms of cash flow.  The easiest is EBITDAX… then look at how much they are going to spend on a foward looking basis on the X (capex) part and subtract out the I (interest).  If it can be internally-funded at this point, that can act like rocket-fuel for the stock price.  (Or just use FFO less capex.  But FFO is more volatile… )
    PVA musings… What to watch out for in PVA is a stock offering.  It will be a high-class problem for z-buyers, however, because i am guessing the company will only do it at a higher price per share.  But if PVA is looking at either selling assets (and they don't like the bid, or don't want to sell "the good stuff"), then they will issue equity.  If they issue equity, bonds will rip… all the way up to 108 or so.  (Ha.  That is the definition of "rip" in bond world… any move over 3 points.)  So, a strategy there will be, if you bought the stock, wait for the bank redetermination, stock pops, sell it, 2ndary announced… bonds pop… sell bonds… buy stock at 2ndary prices.  All JMHO, of course.
    But CRZO is grabbing my interest right now.  Leverage + nat gas prices + a fair amount of bank debt (relative to the rest of the capital structure… but less than PVA). 
    Just some thoughts.

  86. 86
    Zorgnak Says:

    OIH coming to a level that has been important since 1/2010…recently as resistance. Volume demand is positive and improving

  87. 87
    elduque Says:

    re TAT – I have a small position. Think I will keep it for at least another couple of quarterly financials. MMMIII has been at the helm now for a year and has made major changes. It will take at least another half a year to see if they work out.

  88. 88
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Andy: Sorry – Merrill never likes to drive in the back seat and Fidelity doesn't ever know what kind of interest they can push out the door. 

  89. 89
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    crys — thanks for the coyote joke.  It's funny… because it rings so true. 
    Common sense has flown the coop in so many things… healthiest thing to do is laugh.

  90. 90
    Zorgnak Says:

    Small caps in general Russell 2000 breaking out today…on good volume demand

  91. 91
    RobBanks Says:

    BOP – sorry for the dumb, obvious question – but I take it your DD on PVA suggests that whatever the redeterminations may be, and resultant bond price swings, the ultimate danger of default is quite low?

  92. 92
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    "Be an alligator in your pond." 
    Means finding your pond (and not trying to cruise the entire ocean) then not letting a single thing get by you in that pond.  Know your pond from shore to shore.  And when something particularly juicy swims by, SNAP at it quickly. 
    Less competition (because you are FAST), more conviction (because you know your stuff), less waffling (because you aren't trying to cover the entire universe of stocks), all add up to a fat, tasty lunch for the alert alligator. 
    And that is why i call z an "alligator"!

  93. 93
    isleworth Says:

    Re 84  –  Tks Andy. That is a risk for sure. 

  94. 94
    Justin Says:

    WSJ has good opinion piece from Ex-Fed man Alan Blinder called "The U.S. Cruises Toward a 2013 Fiscal Cliff".  I don't mean to be polical, but I believe the largest threat to the economic green shoots we're seeing is D.C. and the deficit.
    I like valuations still, but the storm brewing (Buffet and P Lynch are cursing me) means one can't ignore the macro issues and buy, buy buy.

  95. 95
    Zorgnak Says:

    WHX…Back to near 17 where it was rejected last time

  96. 96
    Justin Says:

    RE: 94
    What will I do with that hypothesis?  Lighten up on some winners in 2H and hope for some M&A which will force me to cash.  🙂

  97. 97
    Stewart Says:






    WHZ – Whiting USA Trust II

    WHZ – Whiting USA Trust II plans on offering 18.4 million units at a range of $19-$21. Raymond James and Morgan Stanley are leading the deal. JP Morgan, Baird, Oppenheimer, RBC, Stifel, Morgan Keegan and Wunderlich are co-managing. Post-ipo WHZ will have 18.4 million shares outstanding for a market cap of $368 million on a pricing of $20. Parent Whiting(WLL) is bringing the Trust public and will receive all ipo monies. WLL will repay debt with the cash.
    Whiting(WLL) is bringing this public a few years after similarly structured Trust WHX. As I noted in my piece on WHX, these Trusts are more 'quick hitting' Trusts with frontloaded payouts and shorter lifespans than the usual energy Trusts. These are not as strong as the growth Trusts we've seen(CHKR/SDT/PER) as the cash flows to WHZ will begin dropping annually. WLL is paying off debt with the ipo monies. As an aggressive E&P, WLL's balance sheet gets bloated from time to time and a Trust such as this is an opportunity for them to monetize mature properties and repay debt.
    While WLL will not retain any ownership interest in the Trust units, they are entitled to 10% of the net proceeds from the underlying properties.
    Distributions – WHZ will make quarterly distributions to unitholders of essentially all net proceeds the Trust receives. First payout is expected on 5/30/12. ***Note that this payout will be for the entire first quarter of 2012 even though WHZ will have been public only for a small portion of the quarter. Payout in May for the first quarter of 2012 is expected to be $0.88.
    From the prospectus:
    'Whiting USA Trust II was formed in December 2011 by Whiting Petroleum Corporation to own a term net profits interest in certain long-lived, predominantly producing properties located primarily in the Rocky Mountains, Permian Basin, Gulf Coast and Mid-Continent regions of the United States.'
    WHZ will be entitled to 90% of the net proceeds from the underlying properties.
    Trust is a 'quick hitting' Trust terminating either by 12/31/21 or when 11.79MMBOE have been produced and sold from the underlying properties. Note that the Trust terminates at the later date of the two and will end at a unit price of $0.
    Total reserves for the properties is 18.28 MMBOE, so there is a chance here the Trust will receive more than 11.79MMBOE.
    Underlying properties: 1,300 gross(390 net) producing wells in 49 mature fields. 96.4% proved reserves. In 2011 average daily production of 4,988Boe/d. 42% of reserves in the Rockey Mountain region, 43% in the Permian, 11% Gulf Coast and 4% Mid-Continent.
    75% oil/liquids, 25% natural gas.
    8.4% annual decline in production between 2012 ans 2021.
    WLL operates 59% of the proved reserves.
    Hedges – Really none here should come into play in 2012. 50% of anticipated oil production through 12/31/14 will be collared at an $80 floor and a $122.50 ceiling. As long as selling prices remain between the floor and ceiling, the hedges will not come into play.
      2011 – $137 million in total revenue from the properties. WHZ's distributions would have been $3.53 per unit.
    2012 – ***Note that the underlying properties will produce 15% of the Trusts production cap in 2012 alone. As noted above, this is a 'quick hit' Trust that will have peak distribution year in 2012. $133.6 million in revenues from the properties. WHZ will receive $75 million, leaving $74 million available for distribution:
    ***WHZ plans on distributing $4.02 per unit in 2012. On a pricing of $20, WHZ would yield 20% to unitholder in 2012.
    Okay, that looks awfully strong. Keep in mind though that this is 15% of production for the entire life of the Trust here in 2012. Assuming oil at $100 and natural gas at $2.50, the Trust over lifespan should pay out approximately $27 per unit throughout the life of the Trust. Much of that will come over the first 5 years or so of the Trust.
    Through the first 4 years of the Trust WHX has distributed a shade over $13. Estimates for WHZ are not in the prospectus, but at 8%+ annual decrease in production the first four years should look something like this(assuming stable commodity prices, a big assumption:
    2012: $4.02
    2013: $3.75
    2014: $3.50
    2015: $3.20
    Approximately $14.47 distributed in the first 4 years public, leaving $12.50-$13 in estimated distributions from 2016-2021, the final 6 years. WHZ should be distributing $2+ per unit into 2020.
    At $20 pricing, you are getting over $11 of that back in just the first three years of the Trust. That should be enough to buoy the unit price the first 3-4 years. Sister Trust WHX was trading above ipo pricing 2 1/2 years after debut, meaning the distributions were all gains to holders up to that point. I would expect something similar here with WHZ. This is not a long term holding as you are getting just $7 or so profit in distributions over a 10 year period which is just a 3 3/4% annual gain on a $20 unit pricing….Remember WHZ's unit price will zero out in 10 years. That isn't a great long term investment with the risks inherent in the energy business and well below return on capital of CHKR/PER/SDT and a few of the other Trusts we've seen. Actually I would call it a pretty poor longterm investment when the risks of production are factored in. However the returns should be pretty attractive the first few years.
    Conclusion – Front loaded Trust which should allow it to work in the short term. Mid-term+ below average deal that really is not providing much longer term incentive to hold based on return on capital. As long as the Trust is able to stay above ipo price, enjoy the payouts and the profit, but I'd be long gone once the unit price falls below ipo pricing. Short term recommend, longer term sell here. Quality wise here well below some of the top notch high yield energy plays we've seen.

  98. 98
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RobBanks — PVA default risk is not zero… but I think it's lower than the bond market is pricing in.  Bank redetermination will come back with a lower borrowing base, but should still be less than what PVA has drawn.  However, there won't be enough bank capacity to fund their capex program without doing something.  PVA has lots of options:  sell some assets, sell some stock, cut back on capex, sell the company.  The wrench dangling above the works includes lower nat gas prices and/or really poopy management execution.  Or a banker/banking group that hates them and wants out.  This last risk is fairly low in the current low-interest rate environment.  Banks want to make money.  Energy lending is very profitable… and the assets have value.

  99. 99
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    94 — agree with that.  DC is the Biggest Wrench hanging over our US economic clockworks.

  100. 100
    tomdavis12 Says:

    97: Stewart – Thanks.

  101. 101
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Stewart — thanks mucho for sharing!

  102. 102
    Zorgnak Says:

    Anyone here follow Peyto?

  103. 103
    RobBanks Says:

    98 – thanks BOP. Very helpful in the decision making process.

  104. 104
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 79:  Thanks for the comments.  I only use the PEG as an initial screening tool–leverage, CF multiples, DCF analysis all help with further decision making.  An important qualitative measure for me is the leasehold portfolio and how experienced management is at efficiently exploiting it.  Capex/TEV is another number that can indicate growth potential, with caveats.  Many factors to consider.  Do you have a name that fits your criteria that you'd like to discuss?

  105. 105
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 85:  Thanks BOP.  I own GPOR and could discuss it at length.  CRZO also has my interest.  Both are volatile stocks, so picking the entry point can be tricky.  CRZO has some momentum right now.  They are gassy, but have interesting oil prospects in EFS, Utica, Niobrara, North Sea.  They may monetize the North Sea asset this year.  

  106. 106
    RobBanks Says:

    BOP – re 98, I'm a little puzzled over this:
    Bank redetermination will come back with a lower borrowing base, but should still be less than PVA has drawn.
    Is that right? Did you mean should still be more than PVA has drawn? In other words, after redetermination, will there still be some available money left on the revolver, but not enough to fund capex? Or will the redetermination mean there's nothing left on the revolver?

  107. 107
    Stewart Says:

    PEG ratio is a tool I have used buying momentum/growth stories where the price simply does not reflect the growth of the revenues/earnings…I haven't found it very helpful in analyzing e&p names..which  seem to trade off other metrics like ebitda and reserves etc..which is how I came to zman..who does a great job…

  108. 108
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Rob… about to jump on a call… but briefly, i think the banks reduce the max lending amount… but that amount will still be higher than what PVA has already drawn.  But adding up what's left to draw from the banks (estimated)  + cash flow = less than 2012 capex.  So, difference will have to some from somewhere.  AND no one wants to go to max capacity on their banks.  That is bad ju-ju.

  109. 109
    RobBanks Says:

    108, OK, got it, thanks.

  110. 110
    Sheentaa Says:

    Re 85/105 – since I own CRZO I'm up fpr that. I either learn enough to sell it, or buy some more.

  111. 111
    nrgyman Says:

    Discussing KOG on CNBC now

  112. 112
    petrodollar Says:

    KOG discussion on CNBC- but no value as you woukld expect.

  113. 113
    Zorgnak Says:

    I see that the S&P Levels didn't make it on to today's page..so FWIW   here they are or were..early this morning
    S&P Futures Short Term Areas Of Interest ..3/19 8:30am ..S&P Futs @ 1396 Notes to Myself.
    O/N session high tested 1403 CHVN, lows tested 1393.50. Suspect O/N low may be the limit of any pullback. Above
    1388.50 bulls are in control. The market remains extended but on balance the evidence suggests a small quick pullback
    is all that's likely with a number of strong indications of additional support for higher prices in the coming week.
    S&P futures & SPY chart at the bottom.
    CLVN= Low Volume Rejection Area – CHVN = High Volume Acceptance/Congestion – VPOC = Most Accepted Session Price
    1427.50 Major CHVN/Acceptance
    1403       Minor CHVN, O/N High
    1400.50 CLVN/Resistance
    1394.50 CHVN,MCLVN,O/N Lows
    1388-92 MCHVN/Range Acceptance/Chop
    1383       CLVN Minor Support
    1377       CHVN/Minor congestion
    1369-71 Support/CLVN/Gap above
    1362-65 MCHVN, Upper Range Pivot
    Glossary of Terms http://www.futurestrader71.com/?page_id=1280
    S&P Futures
    SPY Levels Note the low volume area above. 

  114. 114
    nrgyman Says:

    XOP is flying–good time to be in E&P names.  

  115. 115
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 69.  IB has WHX shares for shorting now.  I shorted some more.

  116. 116
    Alhambra Says:

    Zorg- curious as to how the volumes are noted on the SPY chart above because it's been a long time since we've seen these levels, especially that massive 146 wave way above.  Any discount to validity or more so, what effect, if any, does time have on these waves?  (I've been eyeing 1415-1425 as my target for this abc wave correction using ew). Thanks 

  117. 117
    isleworth Says:

    re WHX short – just also tried Fidelity, Goldman and TD Ameritrade – no shares available to short. Tks Dave re IB

  118. 118
    Jason Chen Says:

    nrgyman – would love to hear your thoughts on gpor; the asset base there is pretty diverse, and i feel like they may be even getting dinged for being in too many areas. Stock has never really fully reflected the value of the Grizzly stake and with Utica / Niobrara / Thailand there definitely is upside to unlock

  119. 119
    Alhambra Says:

    BofA cuts Gil Yang and other energy analysts: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-19/bofa-said-to-warn-equities-unit-employees-of-staff-cuts.html

  120. 120
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Alhambra: 119  I experienced Gil Y first hand a few years back. A strong counter indicator.  

  121. 121
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 118:  I agree with you, Jason, about the upside for GPOR.  It starts with the West Cote and Hackberry legacy assets in Gulf coast.  Most of proven reserves and production comes from those two assets.  They will continue to grow them, but they generate enormous cash flow that they have been reinvesting in liquids rich areas of the Permian, Niobrara, Utica, oil sands and Thai natgas prospects.  Their historical expertise is in the gulf coast, so they have expanded conservatively.  the Permian assets are non-operated.  the Grizzly and Thai assets are through minority interests in local companies, so they are non-operated also.  the Niobrara is relatively small.  the big push for GPOR on an operated basis is the Utica, where they hold a 50% interest in 125,000 acres in the oil and liquids-rich windows.  They are very excited about their Utica investment, recently signed a deal with MWE for midstream service, and plan to ramp drilling over the next three years from 20 wells this year to 50, 70, 70+ wells over the next 3 years.  Grizzly plans to monetize their assets over the next year or so, but GPOR plans to maintain it's 25% interest.  this should provide capital for Grizzly expansion and free GPOR capital to focus on their other prospects.  GPOR production is currently 90% oil and 6% NGLs, with low debt (negative net).  The Utica wells are a 2nd half and next year issue, but they should still beat estimates this quarter on existing prospects.  Grizzly production begins next year also.  So the real growth is late this year and next year going forward.  GPOR is relatively thin on shares issued so it can be very volatile.  Use the sharp sell-offs to add to your position.  There may be some softness in the name through the spring/summer months, waiting for growth catalysts to kick in.  I own shares in GPOR.

  122. 122
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 121:  I forgot to mention the potential catalysts from the Utica.  EVEP plans to monetize this spring their 159,000 acres in the oil and wet gas windows of the Utica.  This event should boost the values of all Utica players' holdings.  Also, well results in the Utica from CHK (and others) should be another catalyst.  The Utica being a relatively new play, data points from new wells could drive valuations of the Utica players.  CHK and EVEP are the largest players in the Utica, but GPOR, REXX, PETD and MHR each have leverage to it and should benefit from good well data points and asset monetizations.

  123. 123
    Jason Chen Says:

    re 121: am I doing the math on this correctly? 60,000 acres in the Utica with 160 acre spacing is 375 locations. At a 70 well/yr drilling program, that's a bit over 5 years of inventory

  124. 124
    Zorgnak Says:





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    re #117 Alhambra    Re SPY volume… Yes, from my experience volume formations are valid over long periods of time. The high and low volume levels, which were just crossed, from 1370-1400 were formed by the volatile price moves of 2007-2008 and acted on recent trading as it auctioned higher recently. I expect that the volume formations encountered on the way up from here will act on price much as they always have.
    Your EW area at 1425 looks pretty close to the Major CHVN at 1427.50. I’m expecting that from here to there will be a tougher 20 points than the last 20-30. The last run quickly skidded through the 2007-08 low volume area and is now into the thickening volume congestion formed years ago. 
    Here’s a more long distance chart of the S&P Futures Volume Profile using just volume. I expect that we’ll see the same type of action  coming into 1427.50 that we saw around the last major congestion area at 1300 until news comes into the market to knock it one way or another. Momentum begins and ends in these acceptance/congestion areas. Above the CHVN at 1427.50 are the very deep low volume nodes formed by the panic buying and selling of 2007-08. If and when we get there I expect it will be entertaining one way or another.
    A another chart that shows the long term effect of volume levels over time is the OIH chart which I had up earlier today. The panic in the OIH stocks in Fall/2008 left behind a large low volume node that has influenced trading to this day.

  125. 125
    Zorgnak Says:

    re #117 Alhambra    Re SPY volume… Yes, from my experience volume formations are valid over long periods of time. The high and low volume levels, which were just crossed, from 1370-1400 were formed by the volatile price moves of 2007-2008 and acted on recent trading as it auctioned higher recently. I expect that the volume formations encountered on the way up from here will act on price much as they always have.
    Your EW area at 1425 looks pretty close to the Major CHVN at 1427.50. I’m expecting that from here to there will be a tougher 20 points than the last 20-30. The last run quickly skidded through the 2007-08 low volume area and is now into the thickening volume congestion formed years ago. 
    Here’s a more long distance chart of the S&P Futures Volume Profile using just volume. I expect that we’ll see the same type of action  coming into 1427.50 that we saw around the last major congestion area at 1300 until news comes into the market to knock it one way or another. Momentum begins and ends in these acceptance/congestion areas. Above the CHVN at 1427.50 are the very deep low volume nodes formed by the panic buying and selling of 2007-08. If and when we get there I expect it will be entertaining one way or another.
    A another chart that shows the long term effect of volume levels over time is the OIH chart which I had up earlier today. The panic in the OIH stocks in Fall/2008 left behind a large low volume node that has influenced trading to this day.

  126. 126
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PVA … spent some quality time amongst the financial model, the credit stats, bank facility and 2012 outlook.  PVA's current borrowing base is valued at $380mm (based on PDPs), with $300mm committed to lend.  I don't think the bank redetermination will fall below the $300mm committed.  Think it might drop to $315 or so, but not below $300mm (caveat:  estimating bank comfort levels with asset-based lending is just a shot-in-the-dark sometimes… but you have to shoot anyway).  Also, given that PVA says they are going to spend about $275mm to drill and complete wells in 2012, i am estimating (based on turning a lot of knobs about success ratios and reserves) the bank borrowing base bumps back up to about $350mm at the end of 2012.  So from an asset-coverage scenario, PVA's bankers should be OK.  However, PVA will have about a $100mm (+/- $10mm) shortfall in cash needed to fully-fund $300-325mm of 2012 capex.  Some of that capex is for leasing and seismic (and could be pushed back, if need be), but a big chunk ($30mm) of cash flow is from a tax refund, expected in december 2012.
    All that is saying is that I think PVA will maintain bank availability of about $300mm, but before they get the tax refund in December, they could be $150mm more into their bank (so go from $99 at YE11 to almost $250mm in Nov. 2012).  Although the bank borrowing base maybe increased in their November 2012 redetermination, it doesn't mean the $300mm commitment goes up.  And $250mm drawn on $300mm available makes most banker's noses bleed. 
    What might quiet PVA banker nerves in 2012?  There's a lot of moving parts… but I think that PVA will have to raise about $50mm through either asset sales (that don't currently have PDPs booked) or equity sales or some combo thereof (a VPP could be shoehorned in between the covenants, but as it adds to the debt load, it's not a great move at this point).  Their bank allows them to go to 4.0x total leverage (and I have them modeled at only 3.1x at YE12, right where they are right now), but of that 3.1x leverage, AND assuming only $150mm drawn on their bank at YE2012, that still puts bank leverage at 0.6x (up from 0.5x at 12/31/11 and assuming about $240mm in 2012 EBITDAX).  If PVA doesn't raise $50mm somehow (that doesn't horribly affect their borrowing base), then bank leverage goes to 1.0x in November and their bankers start camping out on the company doorstep.
    Good thing is that under none of the scenarios above, does PVA default.  Unless their drilling program goes horribly wrong and energy prices drop a lot, PVA may find itself in a cat fight with their bankers, but it won't be a death match. 
    All of this can make for some interesting volatility… in both the stock and the bonds.  When debt starts to affect how a company manages their assets and bondholders start to look hard at covenants, stock and bond valuations can fluctuate.  But it is this "intersection" where equity is in a tug-of-war with debt that can make for some glorious investing opportunities. 
    Just saying, PVA is one you have to watch and know what is going to keep their bankers off the front doorstep.  AND that they have to raise (my estimate) $50mm of cash during the year.  As a first step, let's just see how their April bank redetermination goes.  Look for the borrowing base to stay above $300mm.
    Hope some of this makes sense…

  127. 127
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RobBanks — #126 was just for you.  I wanted to make sure that I was comfortable with the default scenario for the PVA bonds.  Of course, "comfortable" is always relative… it's not a stock or bond for the squeamish.  That said, it's opportunities like this — at this point in the cycle — that can make you the most money.  Just keep in mind that volatility cuts two ways and watch for a liquidity event… I'm thinking they issue about 7-8mm shares of additional equity… about 16% dilution.  But that is JMHO.

  128. 128
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    And — important to add — I don't think PVA tries to off a 2ndary until stock is above $7.50. 

  129. 129
    elduque Says:

    Thanks  BOP. 

  130. 130
    Alhambra Says:

    Thanks Zorg, very helpful. 

  131. 131
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 123:  GPOR has 781 gross drilling locations on their 125,000 gross acre position (50% net, 100% operated), using 160 acre spacing.  The play is new, so downspacing possibilities are very likely.  GPOR is interested in adding to this position as well (nothing announced yet).  Here is an informative new investor presentation.  Slide 11 describes the Utica details:
    Also, 84% of current production is derived from the gulf assets, but only 30% of proved reserves are there.  Excluding Grizzly, 67% of proved reserves are in the Permian assets.  Earlier I was mistaken about the Gulf asset  proved reserves.  Hope this helps.

  132. 132
    Zorgnak Says:

    Thanks BOP……

  133. 133
    RB Says:

    Samson out with an update….Defender flowing oil between 120-170 bopd the past three days….the workover rig is just now in place to drill out the plugs and retrieve the perf gun and the other well is to begin its frack March 25….a bit disappointed not more accomplished since the prior update, but nothing bad revealed either….

  134. 134
    Zorgnak Says:

    ZLT Index…  Price,  Breadth and Volume in gear.
    Up/Down Volume % Spread still rising.
    3/20/150 Day EMA of the difference between Adv/Decliners all rising.(Haurlan Index)
    XOP….. At the top of it's long term volume base. Volume demand positive

  135. 135
    Zorgnak Says:

    Service and Equipment at resistance with Breadth and Volume in gear
    OIH at low volume resistance zone..volume demand positive

  136. 136
    אדמות חקלאיות למכירה Says:

    אדמות חקלאיות למכירה…

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  137. 137
    furniture cafe Says:

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