13
Feb
Monday Morning And All Is Free Today
Market Sentiment Watch: Europe again in focus after Greek parliament passes austerity bill. Futures saw a bounce overnight. This weeks brings more in the way of economic data including more housing stats that are suggesting continued modestly improving conditions. In today's post please find the earnings calendar for the fourth week of energy earnings season (still pretty light as E&Ps go with a couple of big cap exceptions one of which is own in the ZLT) and a new feature for all Monday posts from now on "The Week That Was Watch", a summary of the highlights of last week's post, commentary and maybe some stuff that didn't get noticed but should have.
Ecodata Watch:
- No ecodata scheduled
The Week Ahead:
- Tuesday 2/14: NFIB small business index, Retail Sales (F = 1.0%, 0.7% ex autos), import prices, inventories,
- Wednesday 2/15: EIA Oil Inventory Report, Empire State Index (F = 15, last read 13.5), capacity utilization, home builder's index (F = 26, last read was 25), FOM minutes,
- Thursday 2/16: EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report, jobless claims (F = 365,000), PPI (F = 0.5%, core = 0.2%), housing starts (F = 683,000, last read was 657,000, Philly Fed,
- Friday 2/17: CPI (F = 0.3%, core = 0.2%), leading indicators (F = 0.5%, last reading was 0.4%).
In Today’s Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Stuff We Care About Today - Energy Earnings 4Q11 - Week 4, The Week That Was Watch, CHK
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch:
- ZMT (Zman Medium Term portfolio) - is updated on the ZEB Positions.
Commodity Watch
Crude oil closed up 1% last week to close at $98.67 (WTI) while Brent rose 2% ending the week at $117.31. Crude is essentially trading with the market with a slight upward bias due to Iran, Nigeria, Sudan. This morning crude is trading a buck plus.
- Iran Watch (Nuclear Edition): Admad is a nutbag but he likes his nukes, ahem, nuclear program and he's promising to unveil "big new" nuclear achievements this week. He also vowed to never give up their uranium enrichment program.
- Gasoline Demand Watch: Was asked about this on Friday while I was out, the question was if gasoline demand was truly lower. My answer is that it is lower yes, and at the bottom end of seasonal norms for this time of year. Here's the line chart for U.S. gasoline demand.
Natural gas slipped 2 pennies to close at $2.48 on Friday after EIA reported another small withdrawal from storage. The weather has turned cold in the nation's mid section for the first time in recent memory and this may give natural gas short term boost but the storage overhang will remain the dominant factor through Spring. This morning gas is trading off slightly.
- Weather Watch: Somewhat Colder
- Last week saw heating degree days of 190 vs 152 in the prior week (which produced the paltry 78 Bcf withdrawal last Thursday).
- This week's forecast calls for HDDs of 182 vs 198 normal for this time of year.
Stuff We Care About Today
What I am looking for / Why I'm watching:
- FTI
- I don't own it
- Just keeping tabs on the health of the deepwater market, listening for color and scale of ramp in various parts of the globe.
- DVN
- I don't own it
- Keeping tabs on the story in general
- These guys should be getting into acquisition mode soon
- But also listening for their comments on the Brown Dense (if any) as well. They should be able to report their first results in another two months but any color they can provide will help with establishing my view of this emerging play
- XEC
- I don't own it
- Listening for color on their Cana/Woodford operations (Cana deep).
- OII
- I own it in the ZLT
- Looking for inline to a small beat on EPS
- Looking for them to affirm that operating margins will rise this year close to 20%
- And that ROV utilization will average above 80%.
- Looking for them to guide in line with (straddling) the upper end of current Street EPS.
- VQ
- I don't own it
- Just watching to see if the buyout is a go or not. DR Link, I declared you winner here too soon, this deal is apparently not yet definitely done.
- EOG
- I own it in the ZLT
- Expecting another stronger than Street expectation quarter as far as the quarterly numbers go (so should everyone else be)
- Looking for them to up their "captured reserves" for the Eagle Ford shale over the 900 mm BOE they have been talking for the last two years as they report another set of strong wells
- Looking for them to hint at another oil stealth play in the U.S.
- Looking for them to talk about their first, currently drilling, well in Argentina in a positive light
- ECA
- I don't own it
- Will listen as I want to hear what big cap gassy name like ECA does at this point.
- Capital spending should be ratcheted back severely.
.
Fraccing Friday Wrap
- Two words: Very Cool
- I essentially had full access to two well pads in the Arkoma that were in the process of being completed for pretty much all of Friday.
- Huge thanks to the guys from the Operator for taking me through it all and for their patience in answering my questions and keeping me from getting spindled, folded, or otherwise mutilated
- Wireline van was cool, thanks to the Key and HAL guys for taking me through it step by step and for the frac ball which is the coolest non-magnetizable paper weight I now own. Got to watch as a plug was set and then as the wireline came up hole, detonating perf guns along the way to complete one stage.
- Have to say the HAL 5000 Command Center is the baddest RV out there. No other has that many screens and computers tied into corporate via satellite. Simply amazing and although they assured me that its all pretty straight forward and by no means rocket science it did have that mission control feel to it.
- Anyway, this doesn't do the day justice but thanks to the Operator, HAL guys and others for a high speed education in horizontal hydraulic fracturing. And I do appreciate the offer of the sack cutter job but alas, I have decided to stick with my current gig.
Other Stuff
- HAL and Petronas sign global shale development deal.
- BCEI - look for reserves early this week.
- Later this week look for a Catalyst List update and a Bakken Players update.
- CHK Talks 2012 Monetizations
- Looking to sell or monetize $10 to $12 B in assets in next 12 months
- Combination of VPPs and JVs including Granite Wash, MS LIME, and Permian
- Saying rising liquids profile will result in equalibrium in 2014.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- CJES - JPM cuts target by $9 to $41
- SD - Stifel ups to Buy
- PVA - Stifel ups to Buy
- FTI - Global Hunter cuts to Neutral
- ACI - Brean cuts to Hold
- CCJ - Dahlman trims target by $2 to $30, stays Buy
OII to BUY @ GS
Gasoline usage falling..why??..Best graphs I’ve seen vis a vis this conundrum and his conclusion…recession coming…
http://tinyurl.com/7hgnslc
February 13th, 2012 at 8:35 amRe OII – a little late there
Re Gasoline – I prefer my range graph to the one I put in today’s post but the emailer wanted a long term perspective. I don’t see it as recessionary, I do see it to be the result of higher pump prices combined with persistent high unemployment and a real unemployment level that rests in the teens and not at 8%. I see gasoline demand rising again seasonally near term. Spoke with my local service station guy who does mostly contract business for hospitals, law firms etc, business remains strong, margins thin as usual but strong order flow.
February 13th, 2012 at 8:43 amZ: The Bakken Boy stock are acting like NG stock when the fear of full inventory happens. Since there is a capacity issue (not being able to get everything out), which companies would you expect to be most effected, least effected and what is your time frame as to how the issue gets resolved. You mentioned a pipeline opening in April? Noticed that the Clearbrook MN price of crude has gone from $100/bl to $70/bl. EXXI looking better all the time.
February 13th, 2012 at 8:43 amre 3 – I think the whole thing is overstated and I disagree with your analogy. This is a pull back off the top, not a death spiral. EOG will probably be least affected but they are not a pure player. Otherwise, I don’t see one being advantaged over another on the list. Clearbrook pricing is by no means the Bakken. April is actually a rail date.
February 13th, 2012 at 8:48 amS&P Futures Short Term Areas Of Interest ..2/13 8:46am ..S&P Futs @ 1349.50. NOTES. O/N session tested resistance at 1352.50. Currently trading above the 1339.25 pivot. Support 1332. Expect consolidation above 1332 support to continue in the short term. Longer term upside bias continues.
CLVN= Low Volume Rejecton Area – CHVN = High Volume Acceptance/Congestion – VPOC Most Accepted Session Price
1362.50 Congestion/Minor CHVN
1352.50 Resistance/Major CLVN
1339.25 Pivot/MCHVN
1332 Support/CLVN
1322 Acceptance/ CHVN
1317.50 Key Support/CLVN,
1310.50 Acceptance/Major CHVN
Glossary of Terms http://www.futurestrader71.com/?page_id=1280
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/13/ES_Composite.png
February 13th, 2012 at 8:48 amEarly morning OT’s.
BDI start to firm up. +14 to 729
TED -.80 to 41.62
February 13th, 2012 at 8:51 amCrude Futures
Trading above long and short acceptance. Volume demand is supportive
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/13/CL_Weekly.png
February 13th, 2012 at 8:51 amSeems to be hyper concern over stagnant oil in the Bakken. Can you be a bit more clear why you don’t feel this is such an issue Z.
February 13th, 2012 at 8:56 amre 8
1) It’s been going on a week
February 13th, 2012 at 9:04 am2) The concern is in part being drummed up by the sellside over a one week adjustment in price, their job is generate commissions. I have read several notes by them and they are all pretty clueless on the subject.
3) The Williston will see large scale takeaway capacity additions this year and next.
4) If the price stays low for any length of time operators will find alternative routes for crude (including trucks and rail) that won’t be as high as the spread we have seen over the last week.
5) More rail comes on in April.
6) The Whiting refinery went offline at the beginning of the price drop, taking away significant market for crude, it is back online.
7) This is also the result of high basin wide production due to better than expected weather. More opportunities for more pipe capacity, if it persists it will accelerate capacity expansion.
Ah we need more analysts who don’t have a clue. It creates opportunities that otherwise wouldn’t be there. That is why Z, you are so valuable.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:06 am…
8. Historically these snap differential collapses out of hot basins have been short lived
February 13th, 2012 at 9:07 am9) See page 15 here
http://b2icontent.irpass.cc/2011%2F132675.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=1Y51NDPSZK99KT3F8VG2&Expires=1329149119&Signature=wBPA6i0LbWmTxtLlzsSryymPJxs%3D
Crude Futs popping through 100
February 13th, 2012 at 9:10 amCrude spiking over $100
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
… too early in my book but we are oscillating in this $95 to $103 range (or thereabouts). My 1Q12 WTI target remains $95 and I generally set them to be bested by reality by $2 to $3 at least. I think anything in 1Q over $100 is not sustainable and attracts hot money that doesn’t know stories, or valuations, just tickers … call it momo money or annoying money or mad money, it comes in and I have been planning to do some more trading position trimming so I’ll gladly give them some of my position should they run them.
Too kind Eld, just telling you what I think, I suppose I could be the clueless one.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:11 amAnalyst Watch: Ole at MS calling for $700K/day with UDW rigs. The combination of the Angola Pre Salt & the PBR order for 26 rigs has put asset owners & equipment manu in a sweet spot.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:12 amThx Z
February 13th, 2012 at 9:13 amTom – I do agree completely with you on the EXXI and on names like EPL and some of the Eagle Ford guys who are getting their crude to the coast and getting LLS pricing at $15 > WTI.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:13 amZ: I officially brand you as a voice of reason. 😉
February 13th, 2012 at 9:15 amPS Z Not too late to buy LINE.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:16 amWhat sets the price for NFX’s crude. What the refiners in Utah want to pay?
February 13th, 2012 at 9:17 amOne other question on the Bakken. Is there any reason why the production can’t be stored or deferred?
February 13th, 2012 at 9:19 amre 17 – quick, someone tell Petra that.
re 18 – I agree, been watching it laze about, down a touch from the deal price. I am thinking to get back long there in the right account and also to be in WHZ from the beginning.
re 19 – It’s a mix as you know, as they are spread out from mid con to Rockies to deepwater and then internationally. For oil NFX gets north of 90% of WTI each quarter on average. They are another name that will get oilier this year as they shun dry gas drilling. So overall growth may not be that impressive on a pure % growth basis but we will get to watch the revenue $/BOE metric rise as the year progresses.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:23 amre 20 – that’s a fair question
1) because today’s production /cash flow is tomorrow’s drilling budget
2) the wells are still economic at current prices
3) little local ability to store it
If prices were to stay down for long you would see some guys slow down to try and better match up their future production growth with takeaway capacity.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:27 amHDY- completed drilling Sabu #1. Report taking sidewall core samples and fluid samples. Sounds like a dry hole to this guy.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:29 amLots of weird, low volume, big over the ask moves in several names today. Probably meaningless but someone is trying to goose some names in the group. See MHR at $6.75 … I’d tell that guy “it’s a marathon, not a sprint”
Anyone see a broker note on EXXI /MMR on Friday or today, green in a sea of red. Noted COG and SWN outperformed as well, with their Brown Dense halos.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:29 amThanks for answers.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:30 amre 23 – I think I read that the costs were higher than expected for the next well so their last deal didn’t raise enough cash to drill #2
February 13th, 2012 at 9:33 amCHK is strong out of the gate.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:38 amBy the way, if you have lower back issues I think I found a cure. Stand between to HAL pumps, each the size of a semi, for a couple of minutes when they are getting after a frac. Completely realigned my spine.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:39 amre 27 – yeah, and I have not sold mine yet but the stuff they are doing is precisely the stuff analysts hate. VPPs are seen as debt, and JVs have not gotten a lot of credit. CF equilibrium seen in 2014 now? I’ll believe it when I see it.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:40 amHK rolled on cue post reverse split on Friday morning.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:41 am… but not much of a pullback yet.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:41 amS&P Futs
February 13th, 2012 at 9:42 am..Key level today is 1352.25..O/N confluence of O/N High and Resistance…
If/when this is broken 1365 is the next upside target.
To the downside..the opening gap has only a 24% chance of closing today (odds based on 2 years of data)…
MHR on Mad Money tonight
February 13th, 2012 at 9:54 amThanks for the levels in 32 and for those on the wrap this weekend Zorg.
re 33 – ah, thanks.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:55 amSWN moving
February 13th, 2012 at 9:56 amRelative volume higher in service names than E&P so far.
February 13th, 2012 at 9:56 am50% of Equipment and Services high relative volume
25% in E&P
I have recently started using accuweather for their long range forecasts. This morning they are showing for the first time in the last month normal temps. for the next 30 days. However, in reading a report on reuters the reason for the drop in nat gas this morning, was a report that temps would be above average for the next 30 days. Which of the weather reports do you find to be the best? And secondly, which is the most popular one that the street uses?
February 13th, 2012 at 10:00 amThe Street generally uses private services, I don’t know who is popular now, Accuweather was but Bastardi left, Wunderground, Intellicast are used by some. I don’t use any one of them consistently any more, nobody I have seen was accurate this year as the Jet Stream split and shifted north. I quite the Accu pro site and am in the process of looking for a good one for summer.
February 13th, 2012 at 10:08 amWithout economic data releases the US equity markets resume their march to boredom like clockwork. Gassier names just gave back their morning bounce.
February 13th, 2012 at 10:23 amWPRT is running…Bloomberg has an estimated earnings date of 2/15…
February 13th, 2012 at 10:28 amZTRADE – ZMT – SWN Calls
SWN – Added (5) Feb $33 Calls for $1, with the stock at $33.53. Higher risk trade given expiry this Friday.
February 13th, 2012 at 10:29 amre 40 – thanks for that, will listen.
February 13th, 2012 at 10:29 amEPL pulling back on low volume today…sellers dried up below 16.30 last time down
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/13/Stock_Composite.png
February 13th, 2012 at 10:37 amjust added to FTK at 10.51…old limit order I liked on a chart some time back…
February 13th, 2012 at 10:43 amTom or anyone, do you see timing on the WHZ IPO?
February 13th, 2012 at 11:05 amNice pickup RB. I way eyeing it but haven’t pulled the trigger yet.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:14 amre: 41
interesting trading in SWN and CHK today. looked like an aggressive buyer this morning faded and both have come down again.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:17 amOAS moving back up.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:20 amHK up 3%, not much of a pullback yet. If it runs back to $13 ish I will punt my last 1/4 position and await a downdraft.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:26 amSSN has found some love in the past half hour….
February 13th, 2012 at 11:29 amIf Aubrey punted the Permian position, wouldn’t that make a huge difference to the company?
February 13th, 2012 at 11:29 amre 51 – it would be material, were he to sell it outright, good time to be selling oily production. The JVs don’t get him much traction with the Street … why I am not sure. He’s the best landman I have ever seen.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:32 amEXXI volume spike coming in at the lod
February 13th, 2012 at 11:39 amFYI: CVI, the refiner will commence a regular .08 dividend and will be paying a special.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:40 amJust heard Floyd Wilson next up on CNBC
February 13th, 2012 at 11:46 amHK–Floyd on CNBC coming up
February 13th, 2012 at 11:47 amRJ added Whiting Petroleum (WLL $51.22)to their select list
February 13th, 2012 at 11:47 amZ, have you seen the CS report about the expected returns on each of the shale basins, given the current strip pricing? From what I have seen reported it is interesting and perhaps controversial.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:50 amZman- did you look at Quicksilver Production Partners (QPP) Barnett Shale MLP spin off from Quicksilver? Thoughts?
February 13th, 2012 at 11:51 amre 55/56 – thanks. Would not expect him to say anything he didn’t last week. CNBC interviews are generally so high level they are low value adds but it may give me my near term exit.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:51 amre 58 – I have not seen it.
re 59 – No, have not. Probably should but not really interested in gassy MLPs at this time, maybe in the late Spring.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:53 amCNBC showing an actual dog to pick the dogs of the dow. That’s gotta be a new low.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:54 amRe #57 WLL 4th breakout attempt at 52 coming up?
February 13th, 2012 at 11:58 amhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/13/Stock_Composite_3.png
RE 58: From a message board poster, so the accuracy can be questioned, but it looks legit:
“Looked at a chart from CS, they show their calculation of returns at the strip for each of the major plays. Miss, EF and Wattenberg are around 50%. Then it’s Wolfcamp, Uinta, Wolfberry, Marcellus SW Liquids and Bakken in the 30% range. The Woodford Cana and Marcellus SW round out the top 10 in the 20% range. The rest of the plays are less than 20% at the current strip. The dry gas plays come in around 10%, in that group is the Haynesville.
They also show companies with the greatest acreage positions in the shale liquids plays, CHK is pushing 4 million acres, they have 1.4 million in the Utica alone. Next is EOG, SD and DVN at around 1.5 million.
Looks like the Utica will be in the top return range, CHK outside of ATLS is has the most concentration, about $23k of enterprise value per acre. ATLS is at $6k. For SD and the Miss concentration, their 1.5 million acres is valued at less than $5k of enterprise value per acre. ATLS, SD and CHK look like good values if you think oil stays at near $100.”
February 13th, 2012 at 12:11 pmFloyd Wilson on CNBC in a minute.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:13 pmCNBC needs a guy who can ask E&P questions.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:17 pmCNBC’s map shows MS Lime (Osage concession) down by Corpus Christi, lol.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:21 pmVolume picked up in the E&P stocks after the low of the day
February 13th, 2012 at 12:23 pmHK CNBC pump underway. Never mind valuation, just run it on Floyd’s resume.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:24 pmscottrade finally let me short HK. So many buyers today made it possible I suppose.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:29 pmZTRADE – ZLT – HK
HK – Sold the last quarter of my shares taken just before the holidays for $13.09, up 130%. Too rich for my blood, running on a CNBC interview. I will revisit again once it comes back to reality.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:30 pmre 70 = LOL.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:35 pmThanks CNBC
Offtopicthirty, grabbing lunch, snow day with the interns over 0.3 of snow that melted on impact.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:37 pmre: 66
don’t they have Cramer for that? LOL
February 13th, 2012 at 12:40 pmHousekeeping Watch:If you have any names you’d like to see added to this week’s Catalyst Update or items you see that should be on there please let me know. I am adding BCEI to Part I now.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:53 pmand HK
re 74 – heh, heh.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:53 pmTPLM – continued resilience there vs other Bakkens is impressive, back to $7.50.
February 13th, 2012 at 12:58 pmZTRADE – ZLT – SWN
SWN – Added another trading position at $33.57. Expecting news on the Brown Dense play over the next 2 to 4 weeks from SWN and offset operators. See today’s post for more details.
February 13th, 2012 at 1:06 pmre: 75
SM please
February 13th, 2012 at 1:13 pmSM – yep, will add.
February 13th, 2012 at 1:15 pmCrude to HOD
Iran equipping suicide dingies
February 13th, 2012 at 1:16 pmRe 33, Nrgyman, MHR on cnbc mad money tonite..is that confirmed?
February 13th, 2012 at 1:18 pm#81…OT…Iran imports over 75% of it’s food…crashing Rial and ships not calling in port should make for some internal friction..
February 13th, 2012 at 1:19 pmre 83 – true. Gasoline also. One of the ways Ahmad has stayed in charge has been to give them next to free gas. That’s getting tougher.
February 13th, 2012 at 1:21 pmS&P Futs..
February 13th, 2012 at 1:23 pmTrading in balance with an inside day. O/N low and today’s LOD at Friday’s low. Pattern lately has been to trade in balance and then break one way or another towards the end of the day.
Upside resistance at 1352.50.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/13/ES_Intraday.png
Z – Really like your “The Week That Was” summary.
February 13th, 2012 at 1:25 pmBakkens bouncing with the Clearbrook, MN price. Up $8.50 from the low on Friday of $70.74.
February 13th, 2012 at 1:26 pmre 86 – me too. What was I thinking in not doing that before? Sheesh, ugh.
February 13th, 2012 at 1:27 pm#86 Me too..
February 13th, 2012 at 1:29 pmthere’s more lust for Floyd’s stock than I had for the high school cheerleaders…and bud that’s saying something
February 13th, 2012 at 1:48 pmRE 82: Yes. I heard Cramer say it this morning on CNBC. He said since MHR has more than doubled from Oct lows, he wants to see if this is for real. He did not give a name of who he would speak with–just that MHR would be on the show tonight. Should be interesting.
February 13th, 2012 at 1:48 pmre 90 – ha
re 91 – has to be Gary Evans
February 13th, 2012 at 1:51 pm45 WHZ No date yet RJ still lead. Remind me and I will keep checking.
February 13th, 2012 at 1:54 pmre 93 – thanks Tom.
OII (oh eye eye) – walking up too much for me to do anything in front of earnings later this week. I own it in the ZLT, not adding, not selling, may sell calls into the quarter if it goes higher again tomorrow.
February 13th, 2012 at 1:56 pmThanks nrgyman!
February 13th, 2012 at 1:57 pm#91..holy smokes….huge spike in volume after that post..MHR
February 13th, 2012 at 2:04 pmRe: MHR on Cramer tonight… got this email from MHR IR this morning. Let’s hope Gary is his usual “encouraging” self.
=====================================
Magnum Hunter Resources is pleased to announce that Gary C. Evans, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will participate in an interview on CNBC today. The interview will take place on CNBC’s show Mad Money which is hosted by Jim Cramer. Airtimes of the show are 5:00 PM and 10:00 PM CT. The interview will cover a broad range of topics about the oil & gas sector, including details about Magnum Hunter.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:05 pmGDP moving better again, news on at least 3 EFS wells soon … Getting oilier fast.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:06 pmThanks BOP, good to see you’re back.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:07 pmHa! Only half-back.
But thx.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:09 pmWhich half the bird or the prey?
February 13th, 2012 at 2:14 pmGoldmanS going from onshore service to offshore. Downgrading HP, PTEN, & BHI. Upgrading ESV, NE & OII – as mentioned earlier now on GS conviction buy list.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:15 pmSaw an Osprey last week, perched on top of a palm tree. Gots to say it: birds of prey ARE cool!
February 13th, 2012 at 2:17 pm“The Week That Was..” great info and very helpful in consolidating the firehose of info that comes at you in real time!
February 13th, 2012 at 2:18 pmBOP, teddy cam on MMR?
February 13th, 2012 at 2:19 pmCME crude mkts down do due to technical problems…
February 13th, 2012 at 2:19 pmRe 103: Just don’t spot any of those birds nesting near a proposed well location in South LA! Depending on time of year you may have to shut down all operations w/in up to a 1 mile radius.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:20 pmSo “offshore” is the hot new thing, eh? Apparently Tom Ward thinks so. Buy-siders (and industry) still shaking their heads over that acqtn (Things that Make you go Hmmmmm: couldn’t IPO
Dynamic Offshore at $14-16, but Ward swoops in to buy at $18…). Given that the properties are soooo spread out, the thinking is that the LOEs have gotta be in the Land of the Lofty.
But oh, there’s more…. Ward will be looking to do “bolt-on aqtns” offshore.
This just makes me luuuuuuuvvvvv Schiller all the more.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:23 pmjy — #107… you joshin’ me? Them birds are pretty resilient… wouldn’t let a little thing like a derrick bother ’em. They are like honey badgers… heh heh heh.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:25 pmMMR has some pretty good call volume going on today mostly in future months, not much on the put side and most in Feb & Mar. EXXI is quiet as is PXP.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:26 pmSaw that BMO conf calls were put up on itunes… going back and listening to some calls I missed, or names that were interesting.
Like the TPLM call… good straightforward message. they also seem to know who they are and who they are not.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:26 pm@111, nm those are the Jan-2011 casts. TPLM call was at least interesting. They did go ahead with looking at being an operator i guess.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:30 pmThanks jy, skibbi
February 13th, 2012 at 2:31 pmThanks Italy, I still have MMR calls in the ZMT some of which are starting to wake up.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:47 pmEGY getting some attention again today.
February 13th, 2012 at 2:48 pmZ – i’m looking at accumulation and options for MMR, EXXI and PXP for the “tell” but so far can’t see anything – of course that could be because there isn’t an won’t be one or i’m “chart blind.”
February 13th, 2012 at 2:55 pm#115 — maybe on the back of all the luv that CIE is getting today?
February 13th, 2012 at 2:57 pmCrude mkts to open in 15 minutes
February 13th, 2012 at 3:00 pm117, yes, that certainly started the move on Friday.
February 13th, 2012 at 3:07 pmZTRADE – ZLT – BCEI
BCEI – Added a trading position at an average $16.79. Expecting news on reserves soon and potentially an operations updated. Also expecting the name to be influenced by coming Brown Dense news from SWN, COG, DVN, and XOM.
February 13th, 2012 at 3:18 pm#119 — yeah… you’re right. Thanks for pointing that out!
February 13th, 2012 at 3:25 pmWatching WHX trade up with oil. Would like to find an effective way to short that thing … puts out for me unless I see it start to crack, no telling when that wakes up to the fact that it might be worth $10 or $12 but it is certainly not worth $18+.
February 13th, 2012 at 3:30 pmBOP any OT comments?
February 13th, 2012 at 3:31 pmRebalancing the ZMT a bit too.
February 13th, 2012 at 3:33 pmAnybody have any color on SPN the last few days. Been harsh. Cannot be pure liftboast sales rhetoric. The Goldman downgrade to onshore shouldnt affectt hem as much I would think…
February 13th, 2012 at 3:35 pmZTRADES – ZMT
Sold 250 TPLM at $7.43, up 37%.
Added 150 BCEI (total of 300 now) at $16.83. To rebalance the portfolio a bit.
February 13th, 2012 at 3:36 pm@zman/catalysts list:
Can you add Rexx, if there are any upcoming catalysts.
February 13th, 2012 at 3:39 pmre 127 – will do, thanks.
February 13th, 2012 at 3:40 pmre 127, actually, just checked,
REXX is at the top of Part II
http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/catalysts/
I’ll be updating it in Wednesday, (part I being in tomorrow’s post with new additions to the list BCEI and HK)
February 13th, 2012 at 3:42 pmMMR hits $14…yeah baby
February 13th, 2012 at 3:43 pmRE 108: SD’s offshore deal is a head scratcher for sure. While many doubt the deal’s merits, SD has quietly outperformed since the initial shock drop when the deal was announced, closing the gap today. Today’s move is no doubt due to the CHK announcement of a future JV in the Miss Lime, which adds value to SD’s 1.5 million acres there. Also, CS reported that the Miss Lime was one of the most economic basins at current strip prices and SD is highly leveraged to it (see 64). Perhaps some skeptics see some positives in the offshore deal, instead of focusing only on the negatives.
February 13th, 2012 at 3:45 pmbuying accelerating in MMR over last 20 mins…
February 13th, 2012 at 3:45 pmJust found out … RIP BondBuddha
February 13th, 2012 at 3:51 pmre 131 – my thinking pre deal, just looking at the coming IPO was that DOR was fairly valued for an offshore name coming out the gate. Agree with BOP, a bit spread out and for the price I could not see why you’d go with a team that had been around since 2008 vs one like EPL that’s been doing it for a lot longer. Why anyone would go to the Shelf though is beyond me if it is not their first love. Leave it for something onshore? Sure, but the opposite. Hmmm. They must see lots of bypassed pay, nearby low risk fault blocks etc.
February 13th, 2012 at 3:54 pmso sorry to hear re: BondBuddha
February 13th, 2012 at 3:54 pmin my very unprofessional opinion Italy…thar’s your sign of accumulation in MMR
February 13th, 2012 at 3:56 pmQuestion for anybody here – quarterly tax payments need to or do not need to be made on profitable trades made during the year?
I had been factoring interest in at the IRS rate on trade profits when paying taxes previously and getting money back in the paid interest amount. I was willing to pay it so I can trade in the meantime with their money 🙂
February 13th, 2012 at 3:58 pmGMXR on fire; up 20% today
February 13th, 2012 at 3:58 pmYHOO news has a CHK article which includes these 2 comments on near term spinouts:
February 13th, 2012 at 3:58 pmThese were supposed to be long-term cash cows that balanced out uneconomic dry gas fields.
The sales of oil-rich assets, meanwhile, would dramatically overturn McClendon’s stated efforts to more away from an overwhelming focus on gas.
The sidebar article has 25 questions to Aubrey from Forbes.
#33 — “RIP” — Z, what does that mean?
February 13th, 2012 at 3:58 pm#133 — That is so very sad. I will miss Bondbuddha. I recall him posting several times from the clinic… what a wonderful person he was. So very very sad.
February 13th, 2012 at 3:59 pmRb – would like to see some complimentary options action in exxi but who knows. Since calls are dominating my long shares are happy.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:00 pmre 137 – I’m not an accountant but have one. I pay quarterly estimated payments on earned income only.
re 138 – getting close to getting sold by me as that trade is working but for the wrong reasons and its only a trade, not a Core.
re 139 – gotta go read that.
re 140 Rest In Peace. Cancer sucks.
re 141 – agreed.
Beerthirty.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:02 pm#133, got it! I echo BOP’s comments.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:03 pmWeren’t there a bunch of talking heads at year end 2011 targeting 1,350 S&P for YE12? Well we’re here.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:09 pmOT: Popeye… I would not like to be short CIGX.
1) Stock trading well.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:11 pm2) Anatabloc picked up by GNC.
3) Long-running tobacco patent lawsuit going into mediation (which could be a template for MO and LO next).
4) Medical evidence leaking out about anatabine vs. inflammation and CRP reduction capabilities (Hint: there is no other drug, medicine, ointment, voo-doo, or little pill that reduces CRP and thyroiditis… which are two of the things Anatabloc does).
5) Can raise almost $14.8mm by just calling in-the-money warrants already outstanding.
6) CIGX lowered their price on Anatabloc… and sales seem to be moving along briskly.
7) Probably a host of other things going on behind the curtain… but at this point, the negatives are known and the positives are continuing to build.
#142…per my chart software the volume in MMR over the last hour was the largest hourly volume since 1/31…put MMR up on an hourly chart and watch that booger climb from left to right starting after the firsts hour on 1/31…a true thing of beauty
February 13th, 2012 at 4:14 pmBOP–where were u that had palm trees. down my way?/
February 13th, 2012 at 4:16 pmandy — down your way… and then some.
South Water Caye, offshore Belize. No internet… but plenty of rum. Ya, mon!
February 13th, 2012 at 4:18 pmMMR — no ‘splanation for the move, yet. But someday I expect MMR to move like that… and just keep going… taking EXXI and PXP and maybe even CVX right along with it. That’s The Plan, anyway.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:32 pmre 150 – not long now.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:33 pmZ – Seen anything to account for today s strength in ESTE ?
February 13th, 2012 at 4:37 pmSnu – I don’t watch them anymore but they reported 4Q results, showing strong results. Easy to push such a thin name about.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:40 pmPot’s Boiling
February 13th, 2012 at 4:47 pmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-13/gunfights-in-saudi-oil-province-show-spread-of-iran-tensions.html
EGY recent strength on NO News
Historically EGY has only had coverage from 2 analysts
~Berman, Stephen of Pritchard Capital Partners, LLC
~Mariani, Leo of RBC Capital Markets, and one of those [Steve Berman] downgraded them after the Q3 CC.
In late January a Botique Investment Banker Brokerage named MLV & Co added coverage. In reserarching MLV & Co they appear to have access to private wealth and run book on some small cap E&P placements [Bonds & Stocks].
IMHO Vaalco mgmt.possibly gave them access to some as yet not disclosed information [partner for Angola Block 5, well results on 2nd GW Well, etc. ]……and they have been pushing it to their clients.
We should find out shortly, when the presentation for the Enetercom conference [Feb. 21-23] is posted next week.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:48 pmre 154 – thanks for posting, had not seen that one. Trouble bubbling indeed.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:52 pmre 153 thank you
February 13th, 2012 at 4:55 pmre 157 – sure, I have noted some of the IPs in the Banks area of late that they were getting drilled by BEXP, turned STO, were pretty good, seems like 3 or 4 weeks back. Still not going to be played by me again.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:56 pmFTK closed that volume gap to 10.55 I mentioned Sunday. Looks in better shape nto me now.
February 13th, 2012 at 4:57 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/13/Stock_Composite_4.png
Peace BondBuddha, will miss you calling in from your bedside.
February 13th, 2012 at 5:06 pm@154,156 Saudi,
I don’t think this is all that new. Saudi security/defense is well trained/well equiped and well paid. This unrest isn’t particularly new nor does it seem to be a big issue. The saudis will put them down
I think that article is a bit sensationalist. Not that I agree with all their governance, I just think they’re in a different position than the rest of the “arab spring” nations.
Middle east will continue to be a tension catalyst though. Iraq’s power problems (both electrical and politic) will creep up and be issues. Kurdish seperation will be an issue, and we haven’t even gotten to the rest of the region.
February 13th, 2012 at 5:56 pmAgree re different than Arab Spring, but I don’t recall security forces drawing fire in recent memory, maybe I missed it.
Africa too re tension catalyst. Nigeria and Sudan troubling at present.
February 13th, 2012 at 5:59 pmFully expect civil unrest to be another big topic this year.
Greece and Spain will be the hot points in Europe. Expect more issues in Russia with elections upcoming and unrest last year to pickup once the ground thaws. Figure Chinese unrest will continue to be held at bay, not sure how N.K. responds this year.
Depending on the economy and FX, India may start seeing unrest as well.
Egypt and Syria will continue to be hot points in the middle east… even Turkey seems to have issue.
Deciding whether too book the honeymoon to Greece this summer or put that trip off for a couple years
February 13th, 2012 at 6:19 pmAh the internet
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USCSUHC1:IND
February 13th, 2012 at 6:31 pmSamson has posted a new “advisory” to its website…the Defender stuff looked better than I expected…comments on the other two wells I’ll save for Z…above my pay grade
February 13th, 2012 at 8:00 pmSSN operations update
Defender. That’s positive, would like to see more time on it but moving in right direction.
Gretel II. Good comments there too. We like Dolomites.
Australia II. Fraccing now, could be done by Friday.
More comments in the morning post.
February 13th, 2012 at 8:37 pmCramer – the way he presents it, he just discovered MHR.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:45 pmJim is absolutely wrong about saying MHR is in better properties than BEXP was. He says he had to redo his thinking when BEXP was taken out because he couldn’t believe MHR was so cheap and didn’t get that kind of valuation. Wow, that’s not even on the mark at all. End of rant.
February 13th, 2012 at 11:49 pmCramer thinks Gary created and built Cimarrex! He is kinda humorous haha
February 14th, 2012 at 12:29 amThe Atlantic Mirror Image…in W. Africa
Following is a data room slide prestation from the Sonangol / Vaalco Block 5 in shallow offshore Angola.
http://www.ezdataroom.com/pdf.php?id=226
Note slide 5 shows a Brazil Analogue on the left side of the slide.
Looking forward to the Vaalco presentation at Enercom next week.
February 14th, 2012 at 6:25 amInteresting O/N session with Moody’s downgrade causing a gap
February 14th, 2012 at 7:27 amdown open in the S&P and Euro futures. Crude barely took notice of the event. Looking at the O/N Euro chart it appears that the Moody grade was leaked ahead of the release. The S&P has recovered to test the 1352 level once again. Crude has rallied to new highs for the
O/N session. Crude near resistance at 102 with support now at 100. Acceptance below at 100.
S&P
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/14/ES_Intraday
Crude
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/14/CL_Weekly
Euro
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/14/EuroIntraday.png
Iran
February 14th, 2012 at 7:38 amhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-14/iran-sanctions-tighten-as-osg-to-frontline-halt-crude-cargo.html
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