Wrap – Week Ended 02/10/12

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Comments for the wrap and the frac field trip will be in the Monday post

29 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 02/10/12”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    SWN story made the Little Rock paper, with quotes about the 3 billion barrels recoverable, from the Thursday presentation at Credit Suisse. Should be all the rage soon but data will tell more (and soon, next 2 weeks we will know a lot more).

  2. 2
    zman Says:


  3. 3
    zman Says:


  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    Significant S&P Futures Levels for next week.
    Expecting further testing of support with weakness into early week. Demark price exhaustion signals on weekly, daily and intra-day timeframes.
    A break of the 1331.50 level works to 1322.50 minimum. 1317.50 Key support.
    Intermediate term scenario(2 weeks-2 Months) still looks like a rotation upward to re-test 1352.50 after consolidation/pullback above 1317.50.

    1352.50 Resistance/CLVN
    1339.50 Pivot/MCHVN
    1331.50 Support/CLVN
    1322.50 Acceptance/CHVN
    1317.50 support/CLVN
    1310.50 Major Acceptance/CHVN


  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE Levels
    XLE broke major resistance at 73 last week. Now stuck there following the market.

    75 Major Acceptance/CHVN
    73 Major CLVN
    71 Major Acceptance
    70 Support/CLVN


  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    After a run to 95.50 support for the second time in two weeks crude is trading in balance at short and long term acceptance 98.59. Volume demand looks supportive at the moment. Looks like it’s found a home.


  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    FTK At price support. Mind the volume gap to 10.55


  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    NOG 23 prior acceptance. 21.60 Support


  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    ROSE Acceptance 48. Support 47

    GDP Acceptance 17.25 Support 16.50

    CLR Potential support at 75.50, next support at 73

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    HAL Defined support 35.80

    BCEI Near support 16.50 Far Support 15.50

    KOG Support 8.50

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    OAS Near support 29 Far support 28

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    Support 6.60

    WLL Near support at 49.75 Far support 48.75

    MHR Support 5.80

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    EPL support 15.75

    REXX Support 10

    SWN Resistance at the top of base at 34. Low volume area to acceptance above at 38

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    MMR Pushing through resistance at 13.50.
    16 Major acceptance
    15 Major Resistance
    14.50 Minor Resistance
    14 Acceptance
    13.50 CLVN
    13 Minor Support

  15. 15
    elduque Says:

    Thanks Zorg for being willing to share all your hard work.

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    My pleasure..hope it helps

  17. 17
    brodway Says:

    Zorg..Awesome info for the upcoming possibly volatile week.

    It seems some of the ones you mentioned already have bottomed. HAL for example was down to 35.82 on Friday and seems like there are buyers right around 36. Same goes for OAS as it dipped down into the mid 28 range and then found a slew of buyers taking it into the mid 29 area.

    FTK was on my buy list (don’t own any right now) a tad below where you indicate support, but i will have to look closer at your chart as you may be on point there.

    NOG just can’t seem to get the momentum going. Just a short 3 weeks back it was solidly moving through the 27 area and now it seems like all the buyers went into hiding and volume picked up. Doesn’t make sense. Not sure if there is profit taking or short crew are not happy about the stock being up in the face of a very large open short position.

    Just to point out something i have picked up in NOG on a 6 month chart. Please excuse my chart is much simpler than the ones you utilize in your comments, but specifically, the stock has continued to make higher highs and higher lows within this time frame.


    If this serves any purpose, i have to say that we are close to a bottom in the stock. I would be surprised if we dipped below 22. Last week i had sold some 22 puts as i thought the stock would be a relative bargain in relation to the medium term price action we have seen in the stock.

    Good luck next week.

  18. 18
    brodway Says:

    Haven’t seen much comment on RRC of late, but it has been creeping back up again. Not sure if the takeover rumors are still circulating.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg

    NOG requires a patient view, much of the trading in the name is resting action following the recovery. The name is a lot cheaper at this price now than it was 9 months ago at a lower price if you know what I mean … a lot cheaper.

    RRC – I have but its gassy and I’m waiting for April to get more aggressive in that area. The creep up is part of early bottom fishing and I think they are mostly short term types as the energy players who can put up large amounts of cash to add to positions in stalwarts like RRC should be waiting out lower prices that are likely when gas gets very squishy in the shoulder season.

  20. 20
    brodway Says:

    Re: NOG

    I know exactly what you mean Zman. Earnings go up and assets become more valuable yet the stock price does not reflect what really is happening.

    Will use patience. Deep breath.

    Hear you on gassy names. They really have been beat up. Hard to imagine they go lower but i guess you never know.

    CHK has started to show some resilience in the 21-22 range.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    As has SWN (partially different reasons) and ECA (same reasons as CHK), bottom fishing. All of them, even a KWK are trying to form bases and round the corner. I think there will be a wave of negative bank line redeterminations in Feb /March among the mids and smalls that will lead to quick profit taking and possibly lower lows just at the same time storage is troughing at a record high. Then I start adding to gassy names more. I may be missing the low now but I don’t really ever care if I miss it by 10 or 15%, same goes for tops for that matter. Anyway, just thinking out loud.

  22. 22
    Pati Says:

    blog from Leavittbrothers. One of our chartists likes them – Zorg? Worthwhile listening — free for today.

    talking starts after a few seconds, then charts:


  23. 23
    Zorgnak Says:

    All the areas I listed as “support” could be more accurately described as low volume levels. They represent prices at which buyers did not agree on price to any great degree. More often than not these areas are rejected by sellers when approached.
    Not always of course, so it’s the reaction to the area that is more important than the level it’s self. I find the levels most useful when there’s a confluence of the general market levels and the level of the individual stock either for buying or selling long or short term.
    Here’s a link to a good picture of the low vs high volume profile…scroll down to LVN-Low Volume Node

  24. 24
    Zorgnak Says:

    Hi Pati..I took a look. I’d never heard of them before.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    New Monday piece from now on starts tomorrow, “The Week That Was” Watch. Quick bullets on the important stuff from last week.

  26. 26
    nrgyman Says:

    Greek parliament passes austerity deal, amidst riots.


  27. 27
    milepost_43 Says:

    24 Thanks Zorg for all your efforts…I really like Leavitt…your email will get you a free daily Before the Open email……

  28. 28
    reefguy Says:

    Fracing Friday- easy to see how many things need to go correctly in process to have best outcome?

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    re 28 – yeah, the Monday post is up, put up a short snippet about the day there.

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