Wrap – Week Ended 02/03/12

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Public articles over the last couple of weeks


EXXI - 2QFY12 - Big Earnings Beat; Estimates To Rise

HAL - The talking heads are wrong

Other than saying that the natural gas rig is finally starting to plummet as expected the rest of the Wrap comments will be in the Monday post.

32 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 02/03/12”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Positions are updated


  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    Homework Notes
    Breakout setups. APC(mentioned by RB),SLB, EXXI, MHR and EOG among others .Going to watch for pullbacks over the next week or so. Market extended here. Basic materials 33 consecutive days above the 10 SMA, small caps 31 days and tech 29 days. Usually good for pullbacks to below 10day moving average or more.
    Expect longer term positive but short term extended.
    Additional pullback setups… Williston Basin stocks in general have been pulling back over the last week or so. http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/Williston.jpg

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    CLR pulling back to low volume zone and possible support around 78. Need to check with Z for valuation.
    Long Term http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/05/Volume_Profile_Weekly_2
    Short Term http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/05/Volume_Profile_Weekly

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    KOG pulling back to longer term low volume support area at 8.50..longer term volume demand still positive.
    Long Term http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/05/Volume_Profile_Weekly_2
    Short Term http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/02/05/Volume_Profile_Weekly_4

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    SSN Continues to trade above support at 2.12 love volume level

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    NOG Continues to trade around acceptance at 25.29 with low volume support area just above 24.

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    WLL Expecting pullback to acceptance at 47 with first support at 46 and far support at 42.50

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Oils Sands ripping lately…
    SU Support 33 then 31.50


    CVE Near Support 36.90 Far 35


  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    APC Support 81.75

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    Support 77.75 then 75

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    EXXI Support 34.80


  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    MHR Acceptance now at 5.96. A break above 6.30 works to 7+.
    First support at 5.80 then 5.35
    Short term
    Long Term

  13. 13
    crysball Says:

    MEND returns to its old habits of destroying pipelines in Nigeria:


  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    Last two attempts into the low volume support area below rejected as too low. Acceptance at 12 continues to be the magnet.

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    FTK…11.50 Near Support Far at 11

  16. 16
    elduque Says:

    Thanks Zorg

    Voted JB.

  17. 17
    Zorgnak Says:

    Increasing acceptance at 7.05..
    Low volume support area below 6.70


  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Thanks much Zorg, great stuff

    Just got an email from Schaefer that his TPLM piece is updated.

  19. 19
    brodway Says:

    Wanted to point out that OAS reversed course last week on rather large volume (actually about 2.2 times).

    OAS found considerable support at around 30.60 and worked out of a totally bummer trading range on Friday into firm positive territory finding itself up 3% during mid-day.

    This price movement may indicate buyers convinced that 30.60 is too cheap.


    I know this was on your radar late last year, but SM still has not shown any convincing moves up. If the fundamentals have not changed it may prove to be an interesting entry point.

  20. 20
    Zorgnak Says:

    #18..Thanks, my pleasure..

  21. 21
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Futures…
    99.20 Long Term Major CHVN
    98.88 Short term

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Brod – thanks for the prod, will be having another look there soon. Pretty pleased with the complexion of the portfolio at this point. Weightings will be in the Monday post.

    Zorg – really thanks a lot.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Actually, the ranks are updated on the ZEB Positions page now. Caveats that apply are 1) not a recommendation of weighting, 2) this is based on total holdings and not one portfolio I own has all the ZLT names in it, but in general the weightings will apply to the ZLT A and ZLT B portfolios (although both don’t hold exactly the same names).

  24. 24
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE Clsoed at important resistance on Friday.73 level has been significant on a number of occasions for over a year…
    Expect Low volume zone between 71-74 to remain volatile. Acceptance above 70 support continues to grow and shift upward.
    75 Long term acceptance
    73 Resistance
    71 Short Term Acceptance
    70 Support/7 month volume base

  25. 25
    Zorgnak Says:

    Z..Re CLR…do you have a tentative number where you begin to warm up to the idea?

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    re 25 – not really, here is fine, its expensive here, or $20 south of here vs the rest of the names on P/CF. I like the fact that they can grow something as big as that at the rate they can … good assets, good long term plan… could have been another gassy almost ran but wasn’t due to managerial foresight. Like that.

  27. 27
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 23: Looking at your weightings, the one the popped out to me was SSN at #4. This was ahead of BCEI, KOG, EXXI and others. Noticed that you scored big gains in SSN from an early-entry full position, but that you have been adding trading positions. If you were to invest your entire portfolio at today’s prices and production status, would you weight SSN so highly? Are you planning to prune the position or reduce it’s weighting versus other lower weighted positions? Perhaps you could briefly share a compelling case for buying SSN at today’s prices vs others. If others are more attractive, what are the top 3 you are looking to add near today’s pricing (realizing that price can change quickly and alter one’s choices)?

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    re 27

    Good point/question … probably not, but since I don’t make recommendations and just tell you what I’ve done … this is what I’ve done. If you look at the ZLT A for instance its not got as high ranking as that. I won’t include the last part of your question here as the site is open to the public on the Wrap posts but will try to address in the Monday post unless the SB goes into double overtime in which case the post may be kind of thin on actual writing.

  29. 29
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 28: Thanks Z

  30. 30
    Zorgnak Says:

    Last one..I promise..trying to get my homework done before the game begins..
    S&P Futs..
    Popped on NFP and then the machines battled for the rest of Friday..
    “Expecting” a pull back to at least 1331 and more likely to 1326. 1322 is recent acceptance and a pull back to that level and the market would still be in an uptrend with support below at 1317 which I would expect the bulls to defend at least once.
    Likely adjust the scenario when the Greece news hits..

  31. 31
    house buyers Says:

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