28
Jan
Wrap – Week Ended 1/27/12
It was a much more interesting first week of energy earnings than the numbers below suggest. Full comments plus a wrap of HAL, CLB and other earnings last week and next week's calendar in the Monday post.
Here's the CRR article from December 6th if you missed it. Shiny and Smooth But Costly
Here' s the 3rd article on Bonanza Creek with model.
Here's the flipside article to all the talking head arguments against HAL.
Interesting that there has been no capitulation by the shorts in nat gas.
You would have thought by the run up, that there would have been less shorts.
January 28th, 2012 at 1:07 pmThey have got to think that there is limited downside movement left but they may be OK in that there isn’t much danger of a near term move to the upside, as in they have at least 3 months probably before they have to worry about a solid move back over $3. The move higher in gas should come in advance of an improvement in supply and it will like come at the same time as we see another leg up in industrial and generation sponsored demand.
January 28th, 2012 at 1:12 pmThree Rivers Operating Company files for a $300M IPO. It plans to list on the NYSE under the symbol “TROC.” The company is an independent exploration and production company engaged in oil and natural gas exploration, production and development in the Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
from alpha
searching for info….
January 28th, 2012 at 1:36 pm#3-Three Rivers-do not like idea of existing shareholder cashing out:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120127-710678.html
January 28th, 2012 at 1:43 pmThanks choices, seeing same, in a big way from Matador coming next week. Will look at TROC.
January 28th, 2012 at 1:47 pmz, here is web site-appears that private equity firm The Riverstone/Carlyle Global Energy and Power Funds, a group of energy-focused private equity funds managed by Riverstone Holdings LLC is major backer-they may be cashing out but cannot confirm.
http://www.3rnr.com/
January 28th, 2012 at 2:08 pmRe 3,4,6 – just an S1 available now, biggish production and decent sized reserves, will wait to look at it when the S1A comes out with the share counts. New public Permian player, should be easy to figure out if its coming to high priced or not.
January 28th, 2012 at 2:22 pmTROC in Irion county is near where Broad Oak was. BO got rolled up into LPI. Suddenly AREX’s scarcity value as a small Wolffork player is decreasing.
January 28th, 2012 at 5:27 pmJB- would you please take a look at GDP for me. Looks very bullish on P&F chart. Also, heavy volume the last week.
Voted.
January 28th, 2012 at 7:06 pmZ, I know we can’t kiss all the girls, but this one seems me to be wearing a red dress with a come hither look. Growth seems to be right, margins look good, debt seems to be low, can’t see a short thesis, but I don’t know management. What are your thoughts? CJES
January 29th, 2012 at 11:41 amCJES
VERY INTERSTING STORY…………..as per the Q3 CC they are truly hitting on all cylinders…….zero debt, $47 million in cash………growing like a weed.
Certainly deserves Z’s insight.
January 29th, 2012 at 12:05 pm#9 Eld, thank you…I agree, nice structure on the P&F breakout, the weekly looks especially interesting, I posted a chart…this break out on the longer term consolidation traingle suggests an eventual test of at least the 200 period near $24
January 29th, 2012 at 12:39 pmCJES – not really in my wheelhouse but have been asked to look at it multiple times. Looks like headwinds to me but have only taken a cursory look so far.
January 29th, 2012 at 12:40 pmEld – Re GDP – expecting an ops update any day now
January 29th, 2012 at 12:40 pmthanks JB
January 29th, 2012 at 3:17 pmGregor on oil supply
http://gregor.us/oil/global-oil-production-update-a-strange-future-has-arrived/
January 29th, 2012 at 7:11 pmS&P Futures opening down a bit but still coiling for a move between the 1298 and 1317 support/resistance levels. Major long and short term acceptance at 1308-10. Price extended with 26 consecutive days above the 10 day MA. Breadth and Volume still supportive.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/ES_Composite_2
XLE Holding just below resistance at 73. Long and short term acceptance at 71.
Minor support level at 70.
Expect XLE to trade sideways between 70-73 along with the general market.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/ES_Composite_2
OIH Back to major long and short term acceptance/congestion at 125. Long and short term Volume demand positive. Near support and resistance at 115/135.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/Volume_Profile_Weekly_4
XOP
January 29th, 2012 at 9:29 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/Volume_Profile_Weekly_2
OptionsHawk on Twitter has been commenting on some energy names lately. Of note today:
KOG
Trade Details:
The January 2013 $10/$15 call spreads were bought to open in Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) on the CBOE for 10,000 contracts at a $1.35 debit.
NBR Real M&A Piece – http://buswk.co/xlmwuB
January 29th, 2012 at 9:44 pmGDP Slowed down into long and short term congestion/Acceptance at 18.50 area. Expect support at 17.50 on a pullback. Long and short term volume demand positive.
January 29th, 2012 at 9:49 pmFebruary $17.50 calls with 1,100 bought and 490 March $17.50’s as resistance at 17.50 is broken.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/Volume_Profile_Weekly_7
KOG Unable to get below acceptance at 9 for long last week.8.45 support. Long term volume demand still positive.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/Volume_Profile_Weekly_9
January 29th, 2012 at 9:58 pmKOG and MHR out with data and updates.
January 30th, 2012 at 8:22 am