26
Nov
Wrap – Week Ended 11/25/11
Comments will be included in the Monday post.
Contest names can be found here along with the 3Q11 Earnings Wrap
The updated Catalyst List can be seen here
The ZLT stats page can be seen here
and last week's Bakken Player Update piece can be seen here
XLE Long Term
November 26th, 2011 at 1:16 pmPulling back from congestion above 72.75. Pullback below 62.50 will be below shorter term value just above longer term support at around 62.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/26/ScottSignals_2
S&P Futs Long Term
Turned back at overhead congestion.
Closed just below Major Acceptance around the 1160 area..Next Major area of
Acceptance downward at around 1060. To my eye..volume trends suggest a probable test at least of the shorter term value area at 1120 with this years lows and Acceptance at 1060 appearing to be the next downside target.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/26/ScottSignals_3
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/26/ScottSignals_4
November 26th, 2011 at 1:42 pmCrude..Long Term
November 26th, 2011 at 1:52 pmTrading at 4 and 1 year acceptance at around 97. 4 year value area is 83-101 with the 1 year value ares shifting up to approx. 86-106…Selling volume trails off below 83 on the 1&4 year and 90 day time frames.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/26/ScottSignals_5
Maybe we get some pop on Monday on pretty good retail numbers?
Black Friday sales increased 6.6 percent to the largest amount ever as many U.S. consumers unleashed pent-up demand and bought for themselves.
Shoppers spent $11.4 billion yesterday, ShopperTrak said in a statement today. Foot traffic rose 5.1 percent, according to the Chicago-based research firm.
“This is the largest year-over-year gain in ShopperTrak’s National Retail Sales Estimate for Black Friday since the 8.3 percent increase we saw between 2007 and 2006,” ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin said in the statement. “Still, it’s just one day. It remains to be seen whether consumers will sustain this behavior through the holiday shopping season.”
November 26th, 2011 at 8:30 pmEXXI…swing position hold caution, tripped a P&F sell signal, charts updated…looking at the weekly, the next major LT (long-term)support is near $22, this corresponds with LT P&F trendline support, with the $NYMO McClellanm, deeply oversold at -98, we are on the verge of a near term rally day, so I’m watching for the possible bear trap, but anyone with anything other than multiweek positions should keep an eye here if your not willing to ride it out…
November 26th, 2011 at 9:50 pmI’ll just go out on a limb here and call the quote about a January start to an all out 12 to 24 month fraccing moratorium in the Willston Basin as insane.
First, the EPA rules are being written, second the rules are going to be applied to gas wells and not until 2014. What a load of manure.
http://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-and-regional/helms-says-epa-could-halt-fracking-in-oil-patch/article_fe9a3284-18b9-11e1-ba39-001cc4c03286.html
November 27th, 2011 at 12:57 pmIMF big loan to Italy rumor
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-27/imf-readying-600-billion-euro-loan-offer-for-italy-stampa-says.html
November 27th, 2011 at 1:29 pmEuro…
November 27th, 2011 at 6:56 pm1.3350 resistance
1.3200 support
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/27/FT71_Euro_Composite
Futures seem to like 4 and 7 above.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
November 27th, 2011 at 6:58 pmCrude up $1.40 as well
http://www.insidestocks.com/quote.asp?sym=clf12&code=BSTK
November 27th, 2011 at 6:58 pmS&P Futs….Opened and holding above the CLVN at 1170(now support)..major magnet below at 1157..
November 27th, 2011 at 7:28 pm1180.75 next notable resistance ….gap close area just above that at 1183.25…
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/27/ES_Intraday
correction…CLVN support at 1171.25
November 27th, 2011 at 7:31 pmCrude…Trading in the wide, short and long term acceptance area around 97. See #2.
November 27th, 2011 at 7:46 pmSeems like this is where the market has staked out value for crude.
Waiting for something to throw it out of balance..
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/27/Crude
OT
November 27th, 2011 at 7:53 pmDave H pointed out the well defined range in GDX should it go lower from here…
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/27/Stock_Composite_2
To echo JB’s observation…
November 27th, 2011 at 8:24 pmA number of significant Advance/Decline, TRIN, High/Low and Tick studies are signaling a bounce is due. In addition daily Demark and Range price studies support the probability as well.
Options volatility and Put/Call studies were not flashing a great deal of concern over this months correction….
Whatever that means, if anything, is over my head.
Any option types have any wisdom there for me?
Zorg, i’m certainly no option maven, but one thing i noticed in the selloff from late October to late November (1280 or so to 1157) has been all low volume trading.
There had been days, especially in the beginning of this week where individual equities were down 6-10% per day when the general markets were down 2%.
This erratic move in equities may have played a role in option pricing.
The exceedingly high volatility in the markets will continue to account for awkward option trading as the markets are always at risk of moving 10% at any given time on news coming from Europe, Asia or anywhere else in the world.
It seems that the long term buy and hold strategy is a theme of the past. Until investors and asset managers feel safe enough to keep their money invested in the markets we will continue to see these high beta moves.
There are a number of analysts that believe wer are in a trading range of 1100-1250 on the S&P and we need to really break above the 1250 number convincingly to get any meaningful inflow of capital. I’m starting to believe that this may be true.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:09 pm