More Jobs Friday Plus KOG, CHK and the Utica

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Market Sentiment Watch: Yo-Yo market continues with Greece close to resolution (yeah right) and payrolls posting lackluster results, but hey, the unemployment rate is down a touch and the September adds were revised up sharply so its not all bad ... Meanwhile in energyland, it's been a long week of earnings and I'll have wraps for the key 3Q calls in the Monday post but energy seems to have a better supporting bid from the market, especially in the E&P group.  Today we have reports from CHK and KOG, please see the Stuff section for comments, but the big focus will be on Utica players after CHK's JV announcement that puts a $15,000 per acre price tag on at least Ohio Utica prospective land. See the Utica players table in the Stuff section for a breakdown of players with leverage to the play.  If I don't talk to you in comments have a good weekend.

Ecodata Watch:

  • Nonfarm payrolls came in at 80,000 versus expectations of 90,000 and a previous reading for September 103,000 last month,
    • September was revised up by 55,000 to 158,000.
  • Unemployment rate was 9% vs 9.1% expected and last month,
  • Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% vs +0.2% expected and 0.2% last month.

In today's post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff  We Care About Today –  KOG earnings, CHK earnings  + Utica JV impact comments, LINE
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch - An updated ZLT table will be included in the Monday post.

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)
  • Yesterday's Trades:
    • WLL – Added a trading position on top of the core for $46.63 after the end of the quarterly conference call. I think the market was spooked by a couple of items on the call:
      • Comments that L&C area wells are coming in low to middle versus expectations and they tried to play this as something they've talked about before (drainage effect from an older play on the same acreage) and
      • by the 6% increase in capex for the year without a commensurate increase in production volumes which as I stated yesterday is normal this time of year, is forgiveable as its actually to accelerate the non-operated portion of their program in large part and will in fact help the 2012 production volumes.
      • Their initial comments on '12 put in a fairly easily beatable guidance mark of 10% YoY.  This simply mean holding 4Q volumes flat, something they will do and then be able to get back into a mode of beating and revising higher as 2012 plays out.
    • TPLM – Added to my trading position at $5.64, OAS reports next week and should have results on an important well that TPLM is a non-operated partner in and TPLM reports in about a month. The name remains cheap to its Bakken peers.

Commodity Watch

Crude oil rallied $1.56 to close at $94.07 yesterday, its highest close since early August. The front month WTI contract now looks like this. This morning crude is trading up about $0.75 as payrolls cause the dollar to retreat.

Natural gas edged up $0.03 to close at $3.78 after the EIA reported another larger than expected storage injection ... go figire. This morning gas is trading up slightly. Maybe traders are keying on the following ... just kidding, its the cooler air.

Aubrey Watch: His "Time to get bullish on out year natural gas" bullets: (I'm summarizing)

  • US producers chasing liquids rich plays. Basically says once they got oily they won't come back to gas easily due to the trade off. Agree but would add that many liquids rich wells produce a lot of gas and that gas is often high BTU but would get produced even if it wasn't. So they are not really oil wells, they are wet gas wells or liquids rich or whatever you want to call them but they come with associated gas.
  • US liquefaction to begin in late 2015 - yep, that will help
  • Growing industrial demand - also a help although economy needs to improve some too as its not all Chemicals but only about a third of industrial that competes on a global gas price basis against naptha.
  • US shift from coal to NG
  • Construction of GTL and biofuel plants ... think this takes longer to really impact ... not exactly "out year" stuff.
  • CNG and LNG vehicles - ditto prior comment. I'm tempted to buy one but I have to go across the river to fuel up and that's a non starter. At home with the PHIL option? Sure but then you've hit the economic advantage of buying the car in the first place. But for fleets gas is great.

Natural Gas Review

ZComment: Avert your eyes from the following if you are bullish on natural gas. We're about to set a new record, weather willing we only come close but yesterday EIA reported the 7th consecutive record injection for that particularly week of the year and its obvious that "other state" production has only continued to rise into Fall. Also note that we successfully eroded a good winter based deficit over the summer despite improved industrial demand. This does not bode well for a winter breakout other than on unsustainable weather inspired spikes.

Stuff  We Care About Today

KOG Reports "As Expected" 3Q11 Results; Reiterates Prior Guidance

Highlights & Guidance:  Not much new on the operations front as they spilled the beans on news wells with October interim update and we're just short of additional well results. Guidance:

  • As previously indicated, new completed near the end of 3Q have essentially doubled KOG's current rate over 3Q levels to between 7.5 and 8.0 MBOEpd,
  • They reiterated full year guidance of 4.5 to 5.0 MBOEpd and a 2011 exit rate > 9.0 MBOEpd.  Both of these numbers exclude the recently closed producing property acquisition with flush of ~ 3,000 BOEpd. Look for more
  • Operating costs are starting to tip over on a per unit basis and I would look for the per BOE LOE to flatten and slowly trend lower while per BOE G&A will continue its cliff dive routine. This all leads to improved margins even on flattish oil and gas prices and suggests rapid EBITDA expansion next year.

  • As stated above, most of the operational thunder was stolen by the October update but there was a comment about their first Three Forks well in the Koala area having a 90 day average rate of 980 bopd, which comes on the heals of a middle Bakken Koala well also with a strong first three month average of 1,103 BOEpd ... that is the kind of thing we want to see and speaks well for the Koala area where they have 10,000 net acres (room for at least 50 wells).
  • Looking for 4Q to shed light on the Smokey area which they have pointed to as "just as promising" as Koala. Well control in the area would tend to agree and they will have 2 to 3 wells ready, weather willing, for the 4Q call.
  • With next quarter's results look for some tests in the Grizzly area, on the border with Montana ... so far not exactly compelling but they are still expression if not optimism then at least enthusiasm for the area.
  • A look at what they've done so far on the production front and next quarter's number (exclusive of acquired volumes and just the oil) ...
... or, looked at another way, the BOEpd picture with percentage of liquids on the right hand scale.
  • Balance sheet:
    • Pro forma their October acquisition net debt to cap should be close to 30%,
    • Look for questions on the conference call attempting to gauge their appetite for term debt versus further equity dilution. I vote for a balanced capital structure ... so no more equity issuance at this time but they probably are not going to ask me.

Nutshell: Good quarter and scale is on the way. Big questions on the call should center around how they plan to fund the 2012 budget and where they want debt on the balance sheet to shake out as next year progresses. I expect them to put forth official guidance for 2012 in but would suspect they give some general directional guidance on well count via their rig program (guessing 5 to 7 rigs next year) on the call and would expect production growth next year of at least 175%.

CHK Reports Strong 3Q11 Results With Top and Bottom Line Beats; Reiterates Total Volume Guidance for 2011 and 2012 But The Mix Gets Oilier


  • 2011 and 2012 guidance continues to call for volume growth of 13% and 15% respectively and they established a 2013 target of 10%.
    • October production average 3.470 Bcfepd and this augers well for them beating their 2011 target (3.200 Bcfepd) given the year they had posted so far.
  • While the 2011 is unchanged, the mix for 2012 and 2013 is considerably more liquids rich than in prior estimates as what were year end exit rates for liquids volumes of 150,000 and 200,000 bopd respectively are now targeted as the averages for those years.
  • This means the mix grows from probably 15% this year to 20 to 25% in 2012 and 30% (their numbers) in 2013. These sound like small numbers until you look at oil vs gas revenues in this quarter where "only"17% of production was liquids.  Liquids were 40% of pre hedge revenues. So when they essentially double it, well, that gets to some big revenue numbers, especially if the oil vs NGL's mix shifts to an oilier than not mix.
  • Not surprisingly and no doubt a function of the oilier nature of the coming year, 2012 capex guidance crept up from a range of $6 to $6.5 B to a range of $6.2 to $6.8B. And 2013 is seen as a $7 to $8 B year. Notably, they put CHK proper, without the subs, at cash flow breakeven next year and a about a billion in the plus column in 2013. Personally I'd like to say I'll believe it when I see it but honestly, I like my CHK doing what it does, spending money, getting others to spend more money and then getting carried as they exploit the plays.


  • Reserves: Added another 1.2 Tcfe of proved reserves (or about half of a CLR or a quarter of a RRC) since the end of 2Q11 for low F&D costs. First 9 months F&D now $1.08 / Mcfe. CHK then goes on to say they have another 111 Tcfe of risked unproved and 338 Tcfe of unrisked unproved reserves on its land.
  • Utica JV - $15,000 / acre which is in line with their prior, seemingly pie in the sky valuation on the play prior to their first well results release. They only did 570,000 acres of their 1.5 mm acre position, the oilier part, with the undisclosed JV partner (many say China but my money is on BP) taking a 25% interest and handing over $2.14 B to CHK in the form of cash and drilling carries.   See comments on who else might get some play out of the deal in the next section.
  • Planning to ramp Utica in 2012 and called the play similar to the Eagle Ford but economically superior.
Nutshell: Love him, hate him, say what you want about him, Aubrey is a land man first and foremost and a damn good gas (now oil) finding guy. He sets goals and he delivers on them. He buys huge chunks of acreage and then gets generally foreign partners to foot the bill for them, coming out with a $0 cost of ownerhship before 90% of the play (and generally a lot less) is derisked. I could care less about costly old maps. Buy assets for a $1B, get paid $3 B by someone else and still hold 3/4 of what you started with ... that's the trick. Oh yeah, and meanwhile grow reserves by more than your average upper end small cap E&P's entire reserve base each quarter. OK, enough of me spouting off. Good quarter, more of the same "promises kept" type language applies to operations and they are getting oilier. I continue to own it in the ZLT.
Utica Play(er) Thoughts- Based on the CHK JV some Utica holding names are highly likely to get a bump today. Not all Utica is create equal and like other plays the Utica has an oil window (in the west) and a dry gas window (in the east, most of Pennsylvania in fact). In general where the Marcellus is oily, so too will be the Utica.  I'm long a number of names on this list (CHK, REXX, MHR, RRC) but of those REXX has a slug of acreage with CHK rigs all around it as their 11,000 net acre (planned to be going to 15,000 by year end) Warrior prospect is in the same area as what CHK JV'd.

Other Stuff:

LINE Doubles Down In The Granite Wash

  • $600 mm bolt on in the Granite Wash from PXP,
  • Essentially doubles up their position in this stack pay play that set off the organic grow at LINE
  • 263 Bcfe (90% natural gas) in proved reserves acquired for $2.28 Mcfe proved.
  • All cash so its accretive
  • 20,000 net granite wash prospective acres and 70,000 non GW acres also in the Mid-con.
  • Current production is 80 MMcfepd
  • Nutshell: Typical LINE acquisition, not a bad price with plenty of upside and LINE states they see the asset's proved reserves as "significantly higher at year end 2011". Not surprised by that given their experience in the play. This is the way we like to see LINE keep growing their distribution by 2 to 3 cents every other quarter, via bread and butter acquisitions in their own backyard.

Other Other Stuff

  • UPL Conference call at 11 am EST (reaffirmed 2011 guidance)
  • GST conference call at 10 am EST
  • Look for the Energy Earnings, 3Q11, Week III wrap in the Monday post
  • Look for 3Q reports from OAS, NOG, ROSE, MHR and a few others next week as the 3Q reporting season winds down
  • Look for an updated Catalyst List mid week
  • Look for a piece on USEG next week
  • Look for full Bakken Players update late in the week
  • Have a good weekend.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • RIG - RBC trims target by $5 to $60
  • NE - RBC ups target by $5 to $44
  • TSO - Barclays ups target by $5 to $46
  • RIG - Tudor cuts to "Trim"
  • GMXR - Stifel cuts to Sell

172 Responses to “More Jobs Friday Plus KOG, CHK and the Utica”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures Short Term Areas Of Interest ..11/2 8:00am ..S&P Futs @ 1251.25.. Notes To Myself. O/N traded in a narrow range between minor CLVNs 1250.50 and 1258.50 and will be
    first clues as to market intentions for today. Significant acceptance 1303 becoming the major magnet on the chart. Expecting any back and filling to 1241.50 and 1230 would be opportunity
    for adds. 1217 is major support for this leg up out of the previous trading range. Area below yesterdays close remains a very low volume area subject to outsized moves in either direction.
    30 day ranked volatility and the VIX have been weakening over the last several days of this rally but remain elevated.

    CLVN= Potential Rejecton Area – CHVN = Acceptance/Congestion
    1303 Major Acceptance/Congestion
    1270-75 Resistance, Wide/Deep CLVN
    1266.50 Acceptance, CHVN
    1258.50 Minor Resistance, O/N High 1250.50
    1241.50 Support, CLVN
    1235 Acceptance/Balance, MCHVN
    1229.75 Support, CLVN
    1216.50 Support, CLVN


  2. 2
    bill Says:

    what do you think of prices recd by pxp

    PXP agreed to sell all of its working interests in its Texas Panhandle properties to an affiliate of Linn Energy, LLC (NASDAQ:LINE – News) for $600 million. PXP’s aggregate working interest in the Texas Panhandle properties generated total sales volumes of approximately 84 MMcfe per day during the third quarter of 2011 and had 263 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) of estimated proved reserves as of December 31, 2010. This sale is expected to close in December 2011 with an effective date of November 1, 2011. Barclays Capital Inc. acted as financial advisor to PXP and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC rendered a fairness opinion on this transaction.

    PXP also agreed to sell all of its working interests in its South Texas conventional natural gas properties to a third party for $185 million. PXP’s aggregate working interest in these properties generated total sales volumes of approximately 39 MMcfe per day during the third quarter of 2011 and had 120 Bcfe of estimated proved reserves as of December 31, 2010. This sale is expected to close in December 2011 with an effective date of September 1, 2011. Barclays Capital Inc. acted as financial advisor to PXP and Simmons & Company International rendered a fairness opinion on this transaction.

  3. 3
    RMD Says:

    GLBL morning meeting: raising AREX target from 28 to 48, don’t know details yet.

  4. 4
    bill Says:

    just saw your line comments..pxp has enough ng in the haynesville so looks like win win for both parties

  5. 5
    elduque Says:

    Global Hunter downgrading WLL to neutral – price target cut from 70 to 60

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    re 4 – yeah, PXP gets paid early, LINE gets to watch what others are doing and then exploits all the zones over time.

    re 5 – 20% expected gain is neutral

    Having trouble getting on the CHK call…

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Ah, on now, CHK notes forthcoming.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    CHK Notes

    Calling 3.6 mm acres in their JVs having a negative cost of $1,500 per acre

    Or put another way, the stub value as shown by the JV’s is $40B.

    Next JVs – will do in 2012.
    – Williston
    – Miss Lime
    – and a third undisclosed (but almost 500,000 acre) oil play

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    CHK Notes


    – won’t release well results due to rising acreage prices

    – will be done acquiring leases by ye11

    – look for more well results after that

    – said REXX reported a “snappy” result earlier in the week… thanks Aubrey!

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    CHK Notes

    Aubrey going over slide 17 in their presentation. I bit my tongue with last night’s comments as they talked about being 43% of US gas growth over the last 11 years.

    CHK – we are going to stay flat go forward.

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Euro off on poor European PMIs…a break hear leads back to 1.36

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    CHK Notes

    Knocking on EOG – says that EOG was wrong in its claim that Eagle Ford was the biggest find in the last 40 years … says 4 of CHK’s plays are bigger.

    Says CHK’s 4 plays (they’ve talked about them before – EFS, Cleveland/Tonkawa, Miss Lime ) … total of 4.3 B boe potential, said cost is less than $100 per acre… wow, said EOG was just wrong in the claim.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    CHK Notes

    We think we will be able to pass EOG, “that very fine company by” in the next few years for liquids production.

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Adjustments before the open..
    seeing 1248.50 and 1241.50 as the near resistance and support areas to gauge market intentions after the open..

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    CHK Notes

    The CHK EIG Utica preferred shares are NOT convertible to CHK shares.

  16. 16
    bill Says:

    wll down 1.60..the name gets no respect

    PXP, “MMR 2012 plans will be mind blowing”

  17. 17
    bill Says:

    15 eig is the same firm dealing with pxp, they also get preffered

  18. 18
    milepost_43 Says:

    WPRT…NG fueling stations coming to GA………….. —

    I didn’t see it in this article but I believe the $12M is coming from industrial AGL customers not residential.

    Looks like WPRT is back to a buy point…
    would appreciate any chart comments..thanks…

    Compressed Natural Gas Fueling Stations Get Green Light in Georgia

    Georgia utility regulators approved a plan developed by Atlanta Gas Light that incents the private sector to invest in Compressed Natural Gas vehicle fueling stations.

    The Georgia Public Service Commission approved investments of $11.57 million in CNG fueling infrastructure for up to 10 stations that could be constructed over the next five years, based on the size of each station. The new CNG stations may be located throughout metro Atlanta and along major transportation corridors in the state depending on demand. AGL will provide a new CNG service under a commission-approved rate to retail station owners.

    “Georgia is positioned geographically to be the hub for CNG fueling station expansion in the Southeast, and this new program will enable AGL to partner with private CNG investors to meet the region’s growing demand for CNG,” said Ian Skelton, Director of Atlanta Gas Light’s natural gas vehicle program. “Fleet owners and vehicle manufacturers recognize the significant price advantage CNG holds over petroleum and now AGL will be ready to serve the market as these Georgia-based commercial and municipal fleets switch to CNG.”

    The AGL program is designed to stimulate private investment in fleet vehicles and CNG stations by allowing AGL to invest in CNG equipment at each new station using proceeds from the Universal Service Fund. Station costs can range from $600,000 to approximately $1.5 million to build.

    In order to qualify for funding, applicants must demonstrate they can secure the real estate for the station, develop the site consistent with local zoning, fund 100 percent of the CNG station costs, and hold contracts with fleet customers to utilize what amounts to approximately 30 percent of a proposed station’s capacity.

    Retailers would purchase natural gas from certificated marketers and resell it as CNG to the public. The initial station locations will be largely determined based on proximity to commercial fleet customers who would use the stations.

    Construction and maintenance of CNG facilities is not new to Atlanta Gas Light. The company installed its first CNG equipment at a public station in downtown Atlanta in the early 1990s. In 1996, AGL began providing CNG service to MARTA (Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority) when the transportation agency converted its bus fleet to CNG in advance of Atlanta hosting the Summer Olympics. Currently, the company owns equipment at 10 private access CNG stations located on customer-owned premises and has installed numerous others. The company also provides maintenance services to about 30 additional fleet customers who own their own CNG stations.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    CHK Notes

    Will be drilling on new stealth play early 2012, won’t say more except they will be at 500,000 net acres in the play soon.

    A little early profit taking in the group.

  20. 20
    john11 Says:

    CHK stock price straight down at open.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    re 16 – Re WLL – only lately, it will again in time, I think it turns up soon, no plans to sell. That PT “downgrade” today was more of a mark to market, still up at $60 for a target so he doesn’t exactly hate it.

    re 17 – right but in the case of PXP, those preferreds are convertible into PXP common.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    re 20 – pretty typical, I have only a starter since going back to the name a few months ago, it gets weaker and I’m adding more.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Similar theme as yesterday when NOG got a lot of play out of the WLL quarter, today its REXX out of the CHK quarter.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    GMXR – still holding, but not for long, Stifel cuts to sell a bit late, stock up despite the downgrade.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    WVR – call put in yesterday, no return yet, will advise. Sloppy.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    KOG – Howard Weil bumps target a buck to $9

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    WVR — CEO said they should have Phat City results out this week… well, “this week” is almost over. And Friday afternoon PRs are not something I look forward to.

    Late well results are rarely good well results. Just sayin’…

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    CHK Q&A

    Acreage question draws Aubrey ire:

    Curious why people don’t want them to spend more on acreage. We just announced a deal that will be 10 to 1 on our money in less than a year. Good point.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    re 27 – hear ya, have been patient but will call again today.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    adding to 28 – and analysts hate the bravado (rightfully placed though it may be) as they are stuck on getting to cash flow positive land. And the CHK forecast has them neutral next year and up a billion vs spending next year. I think they fall short of that too but this is CHK and I’m not complaining about the way they go about doing things. Next spike down I am likely to add.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    One analyst say people are concerned because this deal is on a LOI (letter of intent) … please, give me a break, they close these.

  32. 32
    elijahwc Says:

    “The CHK EIG Utica preferred shares are NOT convertible to CHK shares.”

    Is this a traded issue? Can’t find ’em.

  33. 33
    zman Says:


    CHK – added to the Core position at $27.91. See site today for details on the quarter and Utica JV. Have room for more if weakness persists.

  34. 34
    bill Says:

    21..No they are convertible to a new unit that pxp is creating– POI

    slide 5


    They also mentioned they will be getting more oil of deepwater in 5 years than they are producing now

  35. 35
    bill Says:

    32 hasnt happened yet re loi

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    re 34 – OK, thanks for the clarification, but POI is a sub of PXP, right? The difference is CHK’s utica sub preferred is not convertible into the common of the new sub. So not an equity ownership in the actual asset, just an ORRI interest.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    re 32 – Sounds like it will be, could be unregistered, dunno yet.

  38. 38
    bill Says:

    33 cant believe that chk is down

  39. 39
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:


    California division of oil & gas top regulator has been fired….. hearing it positive for BRY, PXP, OXY

  40. 40
    PackMan Says:

    Z – thanks for the CHK email alert.

    Added shares at 27.40, sold 26 strike puts, and sold 31 calls.

    All set.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Volumes look pretty light in the group.

  42. 42
    elduque Says:

    What does the market not like about the CHK report?

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    re 38 – Joe Allman drawing the wrong conclusions about accounting regarding capex.

  44. 44
    tomdavis12 Says:

    28 Z: That overspending on acerage goes way back to ’98. He & Ward also promised becoming investment grade way back ’02 & ’03 which never happened so there has been unkept promises from the past. Also sellsiders always need to worry about something. Makes them sound smarter.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    re 42

    LOI – letter of intent instead of signed deal with the JV partner

    Joe has a bone with them using a peak 24 hour rates on the Utica data they released last month.

    Aubrey saying its standard practice, the JV partner has more knowledge about the play than you Joe.

    JOE and AUBREY battle on phone.

    CHK call over … I bet Aubrey is outcussing sailors at the moment as Joe was the last caller. CHK said they will be hard to get hold of today as they are in Boston seeing investors.

  46. 46
    elduque Says:

    One thing I think is pretty clear to me. If in fact they are such a major contributor to nat gas supply, it seems that it would be pretty easy to make the market go in any direction you wanted.

  47. 47
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs.testing 1241.50..Euro continues to weaken,,if 1241.50 breaks next level down at 1229.75

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Re 44 – true on the investment grade comment, but “overspend” needs clarification in light of the outcomes in those plays. It suggest capital indiscipline and I’d say that when you look at the full cycle return on that spending its more like hey man, nice job.

  49. 49
    Zorgnak Says:

    EOG held at the first pull back area in the low 98’s

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    I will say I could care less where CHK ends up today, next week etc, last two letters of ZLT are Long and Term. The dip today is LOI on the JV, perceived funding gap, which they always fill, and its unlikely to be anything dilutive that fills it. The fact that the market is ignoring exit rates on liquids being converted to annual averages is a bit amazing but when a direction takes hold during a CC the momentum builds that “something must be bad”.

  51. 51
    tomdavis12 Says:

    48: Street has rarely given Aubrey kudos for JV & VPP’s. Don’t think they really understand them.

  52. 52
    Zorgnak Says:

    CHK 26.25
    if it gets that far I’ll nibble

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    NOG – holding up surprisingly well given group action.

  54. 54
    elduque Says:

    Z you have been involved in this industry a lot longer than I have. Could you please explain to me who is doing the selling. Hedge funds, major portfolio managers, etc. There seems to be such a large disconnect between current news and long term value.

    For example, look at EOG a few quarters ago, when Papa said that he was more concerned about ebita, cash flow, etc than production. stocked got smacked. Doesn’t make sense to me.

    All we would need is Carl Icahn say that he was reestablishing his position and the stock would be up 10% overnight.

    End of rant.

  55. 55
    tomdavis12 Says:

    I am buying LINE today below $37

  56. 56
    Justin Says:


    Confirm my MHR thoughts and saw the implied Utica value above. How does the BEXP deal impact MHR’s Williston acreage? If I play w/ $10k – $12.5k for the ND acreage – how much should one haircut the Saskatchewan portion?

  57. 57
    Justin Says:

    MHR confirm = confirming

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    re 54 – hot money. There is more hot money trading the sector than there has been in some time. Can’t quantify that, just a feeling. It seems to be bigger in size of the individuals as well. I know what I know about the fundamentals and I like them. It’s not at all my biggest position and it probably won’t breach the top 10 unless it does so on appreciation. Not concerned. I think in the case of today with CHK you have people who got in for a Utica pop who started “selling the news” and then you have others who think that there must be something really wrong with the stock, who don’t listen to the call and/or refuse to drink the Koolaid. Again, don’t give a flip where it closes today, next week, next month … this is noise to me. If it gets much weaker I can add more, maybe it now is a TA to Zorg’s level in the low $26’s. I don’t buy all at once and I rarely sell all at once.

  59. 59
    bill Says:

    36 good point– pxp should have done the same

    pxp gives up 20 % of the upside while chk retains 100 % of the upside in utica

    In the pxp case the buyer gets paid on their investment and gets to convert to ownership at some point.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    re 56 – its apples and oranges for a big piece of the acres. I don’t think I’d draw a comparison to BEXP for much of MHR’s position.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    and adding to 58 – you have the down 20 pullback on the S&P contributing a lot to the CHK move.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Quote from Zerohedge:

    “That sandtrap is a monster: Obama 20 minutes late now”

  63. 63
    bill Says:

    chk replay just starting if anyone missed it (me)

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    KOG call in 20 minutes. May cover those few calls I wrote yesterday.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    tempted, tempted, tempted to add a little more CHK … chart ticked off lows as the presidential pump (G20 edition) started.

  66. 66
    PackMan Says:

    Huge volume in CHK – I would not be surprised to see it reverse and ramp.

    Added some more in 26’s

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    re 66 – yeah, wouldn’t either,

    waiting on KOG call to start.

  68. 68
    elduque Says:

    TAT back over a $1. Anybody heard any news???

  69. 69
    Zorgnak Says:

    EOG back to 100…this one acts like a bull

  70. 70
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P VPOC has shifted down to 1238.50 Not expecting much more down movement
    Expecting a retest of 1241.50

  71. 71
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures
    1241.50 Resistance
    1238.50 VPOC
    1229.75 Support

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    re 69 – yeah. Good quarter but find it funny the reaction as it basically was as expected.

    KOG Notes:

    2012 budget in the next few weeks, obviously it will be larger with the higher rig count

    $170mm on credit facility now due to the acquisition, less than I had estimated, netting out the acquisition price from cash. Hmmm. Borrowing base has been upped to $225 mm. Second lien also upped to $100 mm capacity, could be where I was off

    Service costs in the Williston have not abated.

    Acreage acquisitions – no change, will continue to add blocks in their areas.

    Continue to receive premium prices for their high BTU gas.

    7 net wells to be completed in the 4Q (2 from the acquisition).

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Watching TRGL rally, probably due to RMD.

  74. 74
    Zorgnak Says:

    Euro…expected target 1.3599
    May not be today’s business..retest higher at 1.3778 possible first


  75. 75
    choices Says:

    CHK: thanks, Z (and others)-I do not think I have seen a better analysis/synopsis than today’s discussion of CHK and its JV strategy for long term hold-well done-waiting on CHK, will watch for now, may sell a few puts.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    KOG Notes

    Smokey area gas and oil lines installed. Looking forward to these two wells mentioned in the post.

    Not really seeing rollover yet, hope to maintain flat cost profile going forward. Says the cost savings vs inflation will be made up internally, reflecting what WLL and others have been talking about.

    Netherland Sewell – looking at their reserves and KOG is very, very pleased that NS is in alignment vs thinking of 750,000 BOE EURs and they are very encouraged by their Three Forks wells holding up as well as the Bakken. Not a small statement.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Thanks Choices

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    KOG Q&A

    2012 – guy asking for production growth read.

    KOG saying impact of missing a pad by a few weeks is less with size, so production guidance will be smoother. Makes sense.

    But as to a guidance number? …as expected, not giving one yet.

  79. 79
    choices Says:

    Z,Eli, 1520-do you have any view (no hurry) on the coals, WLT, ANR, BTU specifically-they are so damn volatile-need a gut check to step in-still think the China demand story is on-going.


  80. 80
    RMD Says:

    UPL conf. call comment about Niobrara: if we find what we think we are seeing,we’ll be very pleased.

  81. 81
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…finding balance below resistance at 1241.50…if volume continues to build in this area it sets up a possible rally attempt with a break above 1241.50

  82. 82
    Dillon Says:

    RMD – where is UPL’s acreage in Nio?

  83. 83
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs..56% chance of gap close..so it’s more of a coin flip on the rally…

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    KOG Q&A

    Three Forks – think it works across all of their position …. making the same “separate bench” comment that CLR was referring to 4 benches in the TFS on their call yesterday.

  85. 85
    crysball Says:

    Re 39 Dismissal of California’s O &G Director and Head of Conservation Dept.

    They were hrting all the E&P companies [large & even small ones like USEG] which could not get drilling permits through the O&G Dept.

    Do note that the Governor appointed another Lawyer to head up the Conservation Dep’t.

  86. 86
    1520sbroad Says:

    #79 — i focus less on the coals and more on the rails that move coal. I do think there is loads of hot money in those coal names that sling the prices around. The east coast railroads have not seen huge carload decreases — yet. they may show in CSX, NSC Q4 results more than they did in Q3. I think both CSX and NSC have done a good job diversifying volume recently to the extent that they can. I still think intermodal is a sleeper positive for the entire rail sector when the economy gets above stall speed.

  87. 87
    1520sbroad Says:

    #79 – i do follow BHP for their china related demand picture.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    KOG – covered the call write from yesterday (sold at 0.30, bot bak at $0.20), only got five off, so basically worth a bag of dog food but I should do more of that.

  89. 89
    zman Says:


    Tone of analysts – positive on the quarter and the process moving forward. Lots of “great quarter guys”

  90. 90
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs
    any rally will encounter first resistance at 1245.25 and then major resistance at 1248.50

  91. 91
    1520sbroad Says:

    #88 – nice. I have bought back a lot of calls and rewritten this year. For me Call writing = sleep better.

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    OAS and NOG next week. NOG moving higher. As a reminder, I do not expect them to raise guidance and they probably take full year 2011 full year guidance down a little due to the 1H11 being lower than originally expected. Not a concern at all in my book. Look for a strong current rate there.

  93. 93
    Zorgnak Says:

    Tom..if you’re around, what do you think of RIG for a bottom fish on RIG here..for a trade?

  94. 94
    Zorgnak Says:

    MHR volume spike

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    re 94 – see that, gotta think people take note of the fact that they have Utica potential. Planning to add some soon.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    KOG call ending, sellsiders liked that call.

  97. 97
    crysball Says:

    LINE……Thanks Tom…voted.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Offtopic thirty, grabbing lunch, back in an hour.

  99. 99
    bill Says:

    Resolute energy reports monday
    Im looking for production increase
    of 7 %… 90 % of revenue is oil. They recently had an acquistion that adds 350 per day with old baseline at 8000 per day

    They have 3 year warrants that are exercisable at 13. The warrants are 2.60 with the stock at 13.40. They tend to move up/down 1 cent for a 2 cent stock move.

    This might make a good speculative trade

  100. 100
    bill Says:

    symbol is ren for common and renws for warrants

  101. 101
    mimster90 Says:

    zman I know it’s not a name you follow closely but EVEP did a deal yesterday [http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2011/11/03/Houston-companies-buy.html?ana=yfcpc]. I find it complicated. When you come up for breath with all the news from the companies we follow closely. Could you please share your thoughts on the deal? I’m not looking for anything indepth. Moody’s said it was ‘credit negative’.

  102. 102
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude able to avoid most of the pullback..
    volume patterns look good for a return to a retest of resistance at 94.75

  103. 103
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 101: I don’t have any specifics, but EVEP announced that deal after it already had the CHK JV in hand. EVEP gets $300MM from that CHK deal, plus a bump in NAV. EVEP bought the properties from ECA, who wants to raise capital badly due to low natgas prices. It looks to me like EVEP got a good price on liquids rich natgas production with a big upside in terms of development opps on those properties.

  104. 104
    Geno Says:

    Re: Interesting thing about California does not charge severence tax like most states.

  105. 105
    RMD Says:

    Dillon 82 Sorry, was not listening closely enough on UPL call to absorb lots of detail.

  106. 106
    mimster90 Says:

    thanks nrgman for the EVEP comments

  107. 107
    tomdavis12 Says:

    93 Zorg: The quarter for RIG was very poor and it feels like a blowoff bottom. Things can get better for these guys. The macro picture is the best for the offshore guys since late ’07 early ’08. JB did confirm good support @ $47 – $48. So a buy here is more of technical call than fundamental. If all downgrades exhaust selling I would guess it will be higher by year end.

  108. 108
    bill Says:

    elduque and income players

    re bulkers in october

    capes avgd 28 k
    supras 16
    handys 11

    this is 37 % higher than q2 avgs

    Futures for nov/dec show

    capes 18,000
    supras 13,500
    handys 10,750

    Using these numbers Balt generates 6 cents more cash flow and they pay most cashflow out in divys

    They declared q3 at .12 cent so i see next qtr at least holding at 12 cents

    The dividend is payable on November 18, 2011 to shareholders of record on November 11, 2011. Yield north of 9 %

    stock is at 5.75 balt

  109. 109
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P..dropping below VPOC..back to chop…rally looking less likely now

  110. 110
    bill Says:

    104>> They must get paid someway

  111. 111
    tomdavis12 Says:

    1520: I did want to get back to you about your debt question on SDRL. As of the last quarter they had total assets of 18B and net debt of 8.6B. Most of the debt in varible interest rate bonds. Nibor +2%. There are some converts that are being called. 3 risks for this company. 1. Higher interest rates since debt is variable. 2. Lower energy prices. 3. Lower rig prices. Utilization for company was 97% last quarter. You can go to Rigzone & their website to dig deeper. After their end of Nov earnings are out I will spend some more time with balance sheet numbers.

  112. 112
    choices Says:

    OT-Corzine lawyers up.

    CMT: I think I have heard some lame defenses for criminal activity but MF Global’s is right up there at the top of the list:

    “The money ($600 bil) is not missing, it is just mixed in (commingled) with clients’ accounts (which itself, is illegal)-jeez.

  113. 113
    1520sbroad Says:

    #111 – thanks much. I have been on rigzone. I have their earnings date on my calendar – i will circle back with you next week some time. I have them on my weekend reading/project pile.

  114. 114
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 106: Your welcome. The market did not like the EVEP stock after announcing the ECA acquisition, so perhaps some took profits after a big run-up this year in the EVEP stock. I bought some on that sell-off before the CHK JV deal was announced, for an income account with (hopefully) some upside. Not looking for big gains in EVEP, but that potential is there. Looking at EVEP as a substitute for bonds or other income vehicles that don’t pay much. Willing to take some risk in this case because I liked the Utica position and the acquisition in the Barnett–especially after that panic selloff. Hope that helps.

  115. 115
    elduque Says:

    re 108 – thanks. I am still not playing. When does the supply of new bulkers end?

  116. 116
    choices Says:

    1520-thanks, also for cmts on calls-I try write also to sleep but it does have a cost on strong stocks-qualifies prob as a “duh”-do not know of anything else to in this volatility.

  117. 117
    tomdavis12 Says:

    113 1520: Just saw Ole @ MS had added SDRL 10/7 as tactical idea and taken off 10/27. He thought the new credit line would not only diminish worries about the dividend, but thinks it can be increased. I am also a covered call guy and had unwound some $27 – $28 cost @ $35+. A sharp price to me is $31 – $32 and below.

  118. 118
    elduque Says:

    re CHK- I can only presume that the street doesn’t like the extra leverage and taking off most of the hedges.

    Oh, my god. He is so aggressive and top of that 2 years ago he lost most of his money. Gee, I sure wish he wouldn’t make so much money, it really does make me look foolish, saying that he is too aggressive.

  119. 119
    choices Says:

    #116-FWIW-I think my costs are abnormal because I have been going for the hi delta and premium, which catches me on strong stocks in rallies, ie strike too close, expiry too close-trying to make notes to myself-pls excuse the ramble.

  120. 120
    tomdavis12 Says:

    1520 If you forward your email to me thru Z, I can forward all sellside comments I have access to re SDRL.

  121. 121
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P made it thru first resistance on the way to 1248.50…Euro retesting 1.3778 level mentioned earlier

  122. 122
    Zorgnak Says:

    #107 re RIG..thanks Tom..

  123. 123
    RMD Says:

    some longer term thoughts from the CHK call (assuming mgt is correct):
    1. the nat gas industry’s production growth engine (CHK) is going flat. CHK thinks nat gas price bottomed. Mgt expects the slope on futures pricing to steepen in ’12.
    – this suggests M&A of smaller gassy co.s should accelerate as foreign buyers acquire strategic footholds; maybe HK got bought for the gas.
    2. “industry’s (and CHK’s)profitability and returns about to pivot upward” (slide 10).
    3. “$4.00 gasoline..will cause..policy changes”.
    – $4.00 gasoline implies oil prices go to $xxx (pick a number).

  124. 124
    choices Says:

    #112-s/b$600 mil-tend to interchange bil and mil these days-what the hell, it is just paper.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    I should go on longer lunches more often.

    EVEP question handled?

    re 123 – yeah, Aubrey’s bullets are summarized in the gas section of the post.

  126. 126
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Rally exceeding my expectations…..gap close at 1255.25

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    NOG cresting $26 for the first time since early April. We didn’t yet have 1Q results so the known production at the time would have been 4Q10’s production level of 3,707 BOEpd. In mid September production was just under 7,500 BOEpd. Exit rate on target for >10,000 BOEpd. Oil prices were high, it’s true, at just over $100 but not “that” much higher. Meanwhile, OAS and KOG are much nearer to their annual highs. Just thinking out loud.

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    OAS reporting after the close on Monday, call Tuesday. Preannounced numbers, should be mostly about the operations up and some thinking regarding 2012. Watching TPLM walk up into that on the Stewart well.

  129. 129
    skimo Says:

    OT- Paid Inc Q really did not inspire. One sentence devoted to patent monetization “In addition, management continues to explore opportunities and has organized additional resources to monetize its patents.” Other activities seemed to be pretty much down from last year.

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    FWIW – Kass at “longest” he’s been in 6 months, turning constructive on equities.

  131. 131
    Zorgnak Says:

    Relative volume picking up in NOG and MHR

  132. 132
    Zorgnak Says:

    GDP..perking up

  133. 133
    elduque Says:

    NFX has been trading better the last week.

  134. 134
    zman Says:

    Nice move on PXP bill.

  135. 135
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Good to be a NOGger. Your hard work is paying off. I believe NOG & MHR are having CC’s at the same time next week. Let us know which one you will go with so someone can cover the other.

  136. 136
    zman Says:


  137. 137
    Zorgnak Says:

    EPL Relative volume picking up

  138. 138
    zman Says:

    re 135 – no contest. I’ll be on the NOG call.

  139. 139
    bill Says:

    115 im not in either– a few more years, the rates reflect this as they are in backwardation

  140. 140
    elijahwc Says:


    anyone know the symbol of the ETF that spreads the nat gas contact roll over 6 forward contracts?

  141. 141
    Justin Says:

    Wind River ring back?

  142. 142
    zman Says:

    re 141 – Not yet.

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    Nice volume on the MHR move.

  144. 144
    zman Says:

    REXX quietly to new 3 year high.

  145. 145
    zman Says:

    Rig Count Watch

    Oil up a whopping 34 rigs, to 1112 vs 718 last year

    NG count down 27 to 907, from 955 this time last year.

    Horizontals up 2 to 1157, at record level.

  146. 146
    1520sbroad Says:

    tomdavis – thanks for #120. I will send along email early next week if I still have questions after digging thru my reading pile (many analyst pieces in there…)

    choices – covered calls have been good to me over the years. Can be painful in a runaway up market.

  147. 147
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: How about a contrary view. Suppose we have a mild winter and NG prices go much lower (CHK might not cut back production like in the past). Who would you think is at risk in that envoirnment?

  148. 148
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude not in lock step today…Mid East premium?

  149. 149
    RMD Says:

    nat gas contracts either DCNG or GASZ, but they barely trade.

  150. 150
    tomdavis12 Says:

    140 Eli: Asked. Could not find. Sorry.

  151. 151
    zman Says:

    Tom – the unhedged or lightly hedged. I don’t see CHK curtailing much by the way, hasn’t had much affect last 4 years and last year they basically said, “screw it we’re not cutting if no one else is”. Off top of head SWN comes to mind as somewhat lightly hedged. I don’t see much weakness beyond $3 but I don’t have a fresh nat gas hedge list in front of me, would need to cobble one together … don’t have a lot of gassy names aside from RRC, SWN, GDP, REXX in the portfolio and those, aside from SWN, have pretty good hedges on. MMR is gassy but that’s a special case. Lets see, LINE is around 50/50 but very well hedged, NFX hedges are OK. I’d need to go castabout to find the gassy unhedged name that you seek.

  152. 152
    zman Says:

    re 148 – that and distillate inventory level support, maybe thinking more workers = more drivers plus revisions to last month there.

    Eli – check your email. thanks.

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    Redwinethirty engaged. I’m still here but not very here. Great week and I could care less what the broader indexes looked like, another strong showing for the group names. Thanks everybody and have a great weekend. See comments at end of today’s post for a look at next week’s activity.

  154. 154
    RobBanks Says:

    z – I’ll tax your memory here. MHR reported IPs in the 400-600 range for their recent Bakken wells, and you didn’t seem too surprised.

    Aren’t those kind of low, or are they normal for wells in MHR’s area (which I think is Divide County)?

  155. 155
    crysball Says:

    Does distallate inv. also cover heating oil…….which seems to to be late in buying this year (i.e. retail customers in NE are deferrring the cash outlay due to recession)?

    For sure Railroads are consumuming more distallate…………and exports are strong.

  156. 156
    RobBanks Says:

    We’ve lost Z to that red wine.

  157. 157
    zman Says:

    Re 154 – that northern stuff is lower cost and lower IP and lower EUR, it may work out fine.

    re 155 – yes, we are seeing that demand pick up now. Last year I recall more people going to levelized billing. I’m not a big fan of subsidies but I’m OK with the Fed’s efforts to help lower income families with heating bills. I can tell you that disposable income in the gassified parts of the country is up, all other things being equal, relative to 2008 … NG costs have dropped massively now and that matters to much of the country much more than the gasoline bill for the daily commute.

    re 156 – I was perfecting my evil laugh with the interns, sorry.

    One last time, does anyone have a good book on the basics of solar installs for small projects that they would recommend. Need about 100 to 120 W for the playhouse.

  158. 158
    RMD Says:

    NG unhedged = MCF.
    A builder friend in NJ does solar installs, may have a book or idea.

  159. 159
    zman Says:

    Thanks on both accounts RMD. MCF probably a hard to short item for Tom I’d guess and I don’t like shorting good names even if their CEO has a mystical vibe about him. On the solar, thanks, really don’t want to a) fry self and b) burn down playhouse.

  160. 160
    PackMan Says:

    Z –

    Why is TSO flying ?

    I understand VLO has takeout rumors, haven’t heard anything about TSO.

    Thz and HAGW ,

  161. 161
    nrgyman Says:

    Interesting Cramer commentary after the close (from RealMoney website):

    “The most difficult thing I have to deal with at the moment is the desire to buy all of the drillers because of the incredible prospects being found all over the world. They are everywhere, especially here, where we know that in five years we are going to be a gigantic exporter of natural gas.

    Yet all that happens is that we hear about the funding gaps from oil and gas companies, and the fact that the service companies aren’t making enough, especially if oil crashes.

    To which I say, you have to be kidding me. If it hasn’t crashed yet, why would it crash now? The stuff is going in the OPPOSITE direction. There is no amount of money that companies won’t pay to get it out of the ground, and it is worth so much more than the drilling costs.

    Doesn’t matter.

    The group trades as if all that matters is the next tick.

    But anyone who listened to Chesapeake (CHK) or EOG Resources (EOG) or Apache (APA) or Occidental (OXY) or Continental Resources (CLR) knows one thing: The money for drilling is there and it is growing quickly.

    For these stocks, particularly for Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL), Core Laboratories (CLB) and Ensco (ESV), it is well worth the pain.”

  162. 162
    zman Says:

    Pack – eyes off ball there, will have a look over the weekend. Could be a number of items including M&A, got asked via email by another so was planning to check into it anyway.

    WVR called. Look for a pr late next week. Not a lot of color, rig crew had to do safety training, back on the well today, at TD with no mechanical issues. They’re not talking about it without a pr, have seen hydrocarbons, had shows while drilling but said that wasn’t a surprise which to me says, since this is a conventional well, that they may have skin damage, didn’t get the feeling it was wet. In wait and see mode and that’s just my gut and I could be off base.

  163. 163
    zman Says:

    re 161 – thanks for that. I chatted with him over the last 48 hours about EOG, WLL, GMXR comments as it pertained to economics and sand vs ceramics and got back a tip of the hat email of excellent job and thanks which is rare. Amazing how much that guy is aware of for a generalist.

  164. 164
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 163: You really do an excellent job. Thank you for all of your efforts.

    Cramer seems to be really tuning into the domestic oil & gas industry potential. We are likely to see a great deal of chearleading and stock pumping from him in the future with regard to domestic energy stocks. It also appears that you have his ear–congrats! I hope he listens well:)

  165. 165
    zman Says:

    Thanks NRGY, don’t know if I have it or not but he seemed to warm to the ceramic may be due for a break idea, hard to tell, very short 3 word responses as he’s a busy guy. Signing off for awhile, will have the Wrap table out in the morning. Gnight.

  166. 166
    zman Says:

    LOL, the link has nothing to do with the story.


    Story is actually about crude capping off the longest weekly win streak since 2009

  167. 167
    zman Says:

    Zero freaking out about this CME comment:


  168. 168
    choices Says:

    #167 on zero hedge cmt: A not quite so hysterical article:


  169. 169
    zman Says:

    re 168 – Ha, ha, thanks. Zero will stop at nothing to stir panic.

    The wrap is up.

  170. 170
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs held at 1237…take a look at the chart and that area has been significant for a number of days…seems so today as well…acceptance at 1234 rejecting prices as too low now.

  171. 171
    Zorgnak Says:

    1237 was the O/N low…

  172. 172
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