25
Sep

Wrap – Week Ended 09/23/11

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Comments in the Monday post.

22 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 09/23/11”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    John Roque, imo one of the best TA guys out there on Gold
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/roque-on-golds-pullback/

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    fwiw..Roque’s bottom # on the S&P is 960…….

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    re 2 – seems like that number would mean a Greek bank collapse and domino effect into Europe where you see GDP in the PIGS get whacked by a third to 40%, and the core nations (Germany in particular) come off substantially. Which in turn would drag US / Asia lower.

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    #2..yes..it’s squarely in the bear camp with a couple of other gurus that come to mind…
    I hope he’s right on the first and wrong on the second……
    Like the old saying goes, the sun will go super nova and vaporize the earth..The timing is a bit unclear.
    I see this move to 1144 tonight as being subject to being sold..1105 is key resistance to my eye…

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    1105 key support that is…

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Sunday Night Short Term Levels of Interest
    Volatile price discovery continues within the 7 week range from approximatley 1105 to 1215. Market closed Friday within 1110-1136, the major acceptance area of the range afer a major gap down last Thursday.
    1105 and 1144 is support and resistance for this acceptance area. The evidence for a trade-able bottom is mixed at best.

    1158 Major Acceptance
    1144 Resistance, CLVN
    1134 Acceptance, MCHVN
    1126.75 Resistance, CLVN
    1110.25 Support, CLVN
    1104.25 Support, CLVN, .
    1090.50 Support, CLVN
    1076.50 Support, CLVN
    1058 Support, CLVN
    1052 Major Acceptance, Wide area from 1001-1076

    VPOC=Session Volume Point of Control/Acceptance
    CLVN =Composite Low Volume Node/ Rejection CHVN= Composite High Volume Node/Acceptance and Congestion
    Big Picture
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/09/23/ES_Composite

  7. 7
    brodway Says:

    Zorgnak.

    I think S&P 960 would be a disaster for the equity markets. With baby boomers already withdrawing a good chunk of their retirement funds from equity markets after the 2008 collapse, fearing that their retirement funds will deteriorate and delay their retirement considerably, those that are still in the game may get out and never come back. Unfortunately, the younger generation does not believe in investing as did their parents and another shock may cause enough fear that we may never see normal PE’s for quite some time.

  8. 8
    brodway Says:

    In this weeks Barron’s John Taylor founder of FX Concepts stated that he believes oil is going to $500 a barrel within 5 years. He further states that he would be a buyer of oil on dips.

  9. 9
    choices Says:

    #2-zorg-thanks-I’ve also seen the mid-900’s bandied about by technicians including e-wavers but more longer term than short term-a couple of things imho would argue against a number that low: TheBernank knows deflation would destroy this economy and a strong USD would be a factor in a deflationary environment-to combat this, I believe he would run printing presses 24/7 and make QE1/2 look like a warmup-the other is, as Z states & brod alludes above ($500 maybe a tad extreme), oil demand and price will go up unless we have a complete global collapse-emerging mkts are now plunging which is not good-Chinese markets are also not good, Hang Seng, Shanghai-

    in all, I do not feel very confident as I was pounded last week (huge across the board but I took my eye off the ball-stupidity and complacency)but I’m trying not to sell into weakness and wait for a bounce

    Just Sun eve comments-trying to figure strategy in a down mkt.

  10. 10
    choices Says:

    OT_My final Geithnerism on a quiet Sun eve:

    “Former German ECB board member Jürgen Stark, who resigned in a dispute over the ECB’s role in the crisis, fired back at Geithner that it wasn’t fair to blame the euro zone for a crisis with roots in the United States.

    “All the governments have to do their own work before they give advice to others,” he said.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/for-europe-the-criticism-piles-on-at-imf-meeting/2011/09/24/gIQAC1bHuK_story.html?hpid=z3

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    This must be due to the $1T euro zone stability chatter going around tonight.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

    That and the fact that market got sacked willy-nilly last week.

  12. 12
    milepost_43 Says:

    some Sunday night TA….I get a daily “Before the Open” from Leavitt but this is the first “State of the Market” in some time….like his charts…I really like Jason’s straight forward way he presents his position…actually find it hard to argue against his conclusions…ie daily/weekly/monthly are in downtrends and targeting S&P 1000….

    http://leavittbrothers.com/blog/?p=4883

  13. 13
    brodway Says:

    its easy to see S&P 1050 on the charts but below that it would be truly a destruction in confidence.

    3rd quarter earnings may come in as a positive surprise. the strong Euro may contribute to the multinationals, as they post US dollar denominated numbers. this may be a factor in keeping the markets from slipping into further declines.

    its a little confusing how oil in the high 70’s translates to gasoline prices in the mid 3’s. i remember last time this year gasoline was in the high 2’s with basically similar crude prices.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    re 13 oil vs gasoline – response to you in the morning post.

  15. 15
    choices Says:

    Thanks, milepost-so he is looking @ another -12% on spx-ugh-he crude tgts bother me more but I guess the companies well-hedged would be in better shape if the general mkt plunge does not take them down.

  16. 16
    nrgyman Says:

    Some perspective: Since the March highs about 6 months ago until Friday’s close, the US Brent oil fund has dropped 17% and WTI crude has lost 30%. How have energy stocks performed?

    XLE -27% (benefited from refining profits)

    Large cap, diversified non-integrated stocks did worse:
    APA -38%
    EOG -38%
    DVN -40%

    How do the high-growth Bakken stocks compare?
    KOG -30%
    CLR -34%
    BEXP -34%
    OAS -37%
    NOG -42%

    The Gulf players?
    EPL -37%
    EXXI -42%
    MMR -48%

    The bloodbath stocks?
    NFX -48%
    SSN -48%
    CRZO -50%
    WLL -52%
    SD -55%
    MHR -56%
    TPLM -59%

    The Utica shale discovery has helped some related stocks:
    EVEP +20%
    REXX unch
    RRC -2%
    CHK -27%
    GPOR -41%

    Canadian Oil & Gas stocks:
    CVE -24%
    IMO -36%
    ECA -42%
    CNQ -43%
    COSWF-45%
    PWE -47%
    SU -47%

    Comment welcome on any of the above that appear excessively undervalued.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    NRGY – Can’t comment on the Canadians, the production growth oriented names on the list are very much overly beat down. The large caps are trading near historic lows on reserve valuations. I think you need to take a little longer time frame on anything small as many of those names like an SSN more than doubled before they fell by half.

  18. 18
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 17: Agreed on the small ones, but I’ve got to believe that MHR and TPLM are getting close to super-bargain levels–even though they could drop much further in this ugly environment.

  19. 19
    Zorgnak Says:

    choices and brodway…I’m not making any case for 960. I just passed it along as one guy’s take on the situation. There are more S&P targets than a shooting gallery out there. Several other TA guru types have targets considerably higher than that.
    Luckily I’m not a guru and don’t have a clue where this finds some balance.
    The one thing that I agreed with Roque on were the stats on the golds past trading history.
    That, I put a trade on.

  20. 20
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 17: Another one that stands out to me is WLL. Your chart on Friday showed that, backing out production, their substantial land assets are worth less than nothing. I wonder when M&A talk will start heating up? When it does, many of these names will pop.

  21. 21
    brodway Says:

    HAL almost down 50% from its high.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    re 21 – and EPS estimates have risen the entire time … market not behaving rationally there either. It was probably fairly valued 3 months ago (and back then, we thought estimates would rise). They did rise and it did fall. Does not make a lot of sense. Margins are increasing slowly on the international front… expecting them to talk more bullishly on the 3Q call, mid October.

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