03
Sep
Wrap – Week Ended 9/2/11 (In Progress)
Comments later this weekend....
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Nice site http:info.drillinginfo.com/urb/eagleford
September 3rd, 2011 at 9:29 amRE: 1 strike one http://info.drillinginfo.com/urb/eagleford
September 3rd, 2011 at 9:30 amRE: 2 I changed my opinion of site to — GREAT SITE! Also check out the other unconvential play blogs. Alot of nice maps and stuff.
By the way Sept Vanity Fair has a terrific article on the hacking the Chinese gov is doing all high level US and world institutions and businesses. From RSA, to Google.
September 3rd, 2011 at 9:40 amContext…
Flight to safety trade still in progress.Money piling into treasuries and gold.
Below is the chart of foreign accounts at the FED…Big money looking for safety rather than returns.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ForeignOfficialAccounts.jpg
September 3rd, 2011 at 10:41 amWait until treasuries start getting purged. I’ll repeat that it’s the biggest bubble of all time. You know where the money is going.
AND, I am looking for returns and my equities are growing.
September 3rd, 2011 at 12:44 pmVTZ et al, any ideas what will do well when treasuries are purged?
September 3rd, 2011 at 2:52 pmRe 6: Piling into treasuries is a ‘risk off’ trade. When treasuries are purged that will be the ‘risk on’ trade. Commodities and cyclicals will typically lead a ‘risk on’ trade, with small-mid cap growth-oriented energy stocks leading the way. Look no further than the ZLT for the best ideas.
September 3rd, 2011 at 6:03 pmMim – gold, then other commodities and commodity related plays. Thank NRGY, too kind. Hope everyone is having a good long weekend.
TS Lee just sitting on the coast, dumping rain on LA
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/storms/storm1_models.html
Katia looks like it might be a threat for the MidAtlantic, New England now but many longer forecasts still have it bending back out to sea:
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/storms/storm3_track.html
September 4th, 2011 at 9:40 amZman mentioned the dry bulk rates moving up last week. May be a phenomenon or a new trend, but this was re-iterated this morning on a financial morning show by a commentator and he reccommended getting into SEA (a shipping ETF).
Something to keep an eye on.
Have a great weekend.
September 4th, 2011 at 10:31 amRisk-on vs risk-off: the view I’m seeing over the past few days is that it is 100% that Greece blows up and defaults in the next few weeks-German elections coming up, it is prob 50/50 that they have had enough, Merkel’s support almost zero=gold, treasuries, I’m light on gold, completely on the wrong side of treasuries-question is when, not if, Europe blows, what does it do to gold, treasuries-prob a coninuation but when not if will treasuries be purged-gold can and will continue up, prob other commods-I’m a little concerned about copper as it has not played recently.
September 4th, 2011 at 11:04 amRe 8 & 10: Comments on gold. Gold is now the asset of choice, along with treasuries, to ‘invest’ in a panic-fear induced world where safety and capital preservation are the most salient concerns. They are both performing well in this type of environment. Spectacularly so. Risky assets like stocks are being aggressively sold to fund those purchases and hide out in cash. When the time comes that market participants determine it is ‘safer’ to take risk in heavily depreciated stocks, they will take profits in their highly appreciated assets (gold and treasuries) and move funds into stocks. Treasuries will be ‘purged’ and gold will underperform in this scenario, whereas commodity-related and cyclical stocks (which will have been sold off the most) will outperform. Gold is trading inversely to risk assets now and will likely continue this pattern when risk assets rebound. Gold mining stocks should outperform gold itself, as they have lagged the metal on the way up due to their ‘riskier’ nature. But everything gold related will underperform the market when it turns to a ‘risk-on’ mode. The ‘risk-on’ trade is to sell treasuries, gold and cash and buy the ZLT along with select commodity related & cyclical stocks. IMHO, the top ZLT names will outperform almost everything. The question is, ‘When will the risk-on trade begin?’
September 4th, 2011 at 11:59 amRe 10: The current outlook does appear to be bleak. Greece is hopeless and Euro leaders have their heads in the sand. Europe ‘blowing up’ is a nightmare scenario that the market seems to be pricing in. To me it is inevitable that Greece will be kicked out of the Euro until such time as it can comply with tough fiscal standards. They will get their currency back and pay off their excessive debts with depreciated money. No default would occur that would induce panic or trigger CDS payments, just currency losses on loans that would substitute for the default losses. The Euro, ex-Greece, would probably appreciate vs the dollar. European banks will have to raise capital to absorb the ‘currency’ losses from Greek debt. Portugal and Ireland could follow Greece. Italy, and to a lesser extent, Spain are most concerning at this time. I think they need to stay in the Euro if it is to have legitimacy, but that would mean Germany and France would have to support them. They will not support Greece, but perhaps Italy they would. Germany will decide this week if it can support anybody. Should be interesting.
September 4th, 2011 at 12:25 pmFrom my perch, the read is less clear than last weekend and will remain so until we get a look at how the next two levels below Friday’s close are treated.
Friday closed at a key CLVN around 1168-71. The area directly below at 1164 has been an important short and longer term acceptance area. If 1168 fails to hold and price is rejected below 1164 then I would expect the potential support area at 1152.20 to be a good indication of whether or not last weeks relative price strength will have any follow through. Above Friday’s close, the 1183 level and vicinity has seen 5 gaps since the beginning of August and rejected the market on the last two attempts higher. This skittish
price action is common when price returns to areas in which traders have shown little conviction especially with the low liquidity, low risk appetite and high volatility that continue to be the context in which the market moves. So, My #1 plan for early next week is to gauge the level of support
directly below Friday’s close and watch for any major dislocations in the strongest of the ZLT stocks.
Looking to find the ones that may lead after the dust clears. Patiently. I still have to respect that 1058 is a major magnet below should the market break break below 1120.
1231.50 Resistance, CLVN
1202 Resistance, CLVN
1183-93 Major Gap Zone,
1183.5 Resistance, CLVN
1168-71 Support, CLVN, MCLVN
1164 Acceptance, CHVN
1152.50 Support, CLVN,
1140 Acceptance, CHVN,MCHVN
1120 Support, CLVN, Swing lows
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/09/04/FT71_ES_Composite
VPOC=Session Volume Point of Control/Acceptance
September 4th, 2011 at 5:35 pmCLVN =Composite Low Volume Node/ Rejection CHVN= Composite High Volume Node/Acceptance and Congestion
Thanks, Zorg-I’ve got globex @1162 currently but that does not necessarily affect US mkts levels tue AM
September 4th, 2011 at 6:07 pmIt’s that @#$% T-Bond that has my undivided attention because I violated (again, and again) not to add to a position w/o fundamental support and over-commit so I’m short the bond in fairly decent size via leveraged TBT-jeez, how many times do I have learn the same lesson over and over-my trading skills are starting to look like the gubermnt-sorry, Z, just rambling-prepared to ride out the ZLT whacks because they have the fundementals behind them.
September 4th, 2011 at 6:16 pm#14 I’d surprised if 1168 held..nothing I have indicates that is the most likely outcome.
September 4th, 2011 at 7:34 pmhttp://news.yahoo.com/irans-first-nuclear-power-plant-connected-grid-084520070.html
September 4th, 2011 at 8:25 pm#16-agree-to my untrained eye, I do see anything until ~ 1150 and then down to ~ 1130 and below.
OT-I know we all have had enough of the BS about the world ending as we know it but just to capture a long day of reading, I thought I would include 25 reasons why the world is going to end and we will have Rapture-heh: (And no, I do not believe Goldline is the place to buy gold as our friend in need, Glen Beck, endorses-everything I have heard about Goldline is well, something less than ethical.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/25-signs-that-the-financial-world-is-about-to-hit-the-big-red-panic-button
September 4th, 2011 at 11:45 pmSSN – Defender well at TD, testing rock and fluid samples, getting ready to decide horizontal orientation of the lateral, will then plug it back and drill the lateral. Progressing as planned. Should know something with this first Niobrara test for them later this month.
September 5th, 2011 at 9:37 amDAX down 5+% today. Deutsche Bank CEO
September 5th, 2011 at 11:24 am“It’s stating the obvious that many European Banks would not survive having to revalue sovereign debt held on the banking book at market levels.”
GS State Of The Markets report
September 5th, 2011 at 11:25 amhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/63818804/GS-StateOf-the-Markets
Thanks Zorg was looking for that.
Market is decidedly going to have a nasty open tommorow.
September 5th, 2011 at 11:38 amZorg is this the attached to the report that indicates that GS thinks that “1 trillion in capital is required to shore up European banks”?
September 5th, 2011 at 11:40 amI see it now, page 14. They outline the European long term capital shortfall as 3.5 to 5.5 trillion.
September 5th, 2011 at 11:50 am#13 VTZ..This report does a whole focus on Europe and the capital short fall under Basel 3 rules. Change of rules at hand?
September 5th, 2011 at 11:52 amThat worked really well…….
for the US…
September 5th, 2011 at 11:54 amDJIA fut off 200
Sp fut off 23
September 5th, 2011 at 11:55 amFrom a CSFB Fixed Income Report this weekend… as has been the case for the last few years, it all comes down to Central Govt Policy…
—————————————–
Risk Appetite and Markets
Risk sentiment is at extremes. Global Risk Appetite remains in deep panic, only marginally above all-time lows. US Duration risk appetite is deep in euphoria, and credit risk appetite in panic. It’s not just that economic expectations have been sharply reduced – the market seems to be fearing another Lehman’s like collapse in output. To allay that fear may not require strong data per se but will almost certainly need a more credible policy response. Especially in Europe, where the we think the ECB will have to assume more explicit responsibility for assuring financial stability and offsetting tighter fiscal policy through rate cuts.
September 5th, 2011 at 1:13 pmBank run in Europe-no surprise there.
http://streetlightblog.blogspot.com/2011/09/europes-banking-system-slow-motion-bank.html
http://streetlightblog.blogspot.com/2011/09/europes-banking-system-transatlantic.html
may partially explain deluge of funds into T-Bonds, also FED games of selling short term treasuries and buying T-bonds.
September 5th, 2011 at 2:19 pmS&P Futures Holiday Trading
Trading off the European markets the S&P futures opened another gap to the 1140 acceptance area. 1140 served as a pivot for the market as it put in the two previous bottom attempts in and around 1120. For me, 1152.50 and 1120 now frame the major areas of interest for Monday’s trading. Earlier panic lows of around 1110.50 and low volume area that contained the last Fed reaction low at 1096.50 now come into view as well.
Levels could of course change overnight as the European markets open ahead of us once again.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/09/05/ES_Composite_3
September 5th, 2011 at 3:43 pm