24
Jul
Wrap – Week Ended 7/22/11
Comments will be in the Monday post
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Homework notes.. Zman E&P Index extended break from daily inverse H&S pattern.Extended 39-40 Support. http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZMAN723.jpg
ZCoalProducers Index broke daily inverse H&S pattern. Extended 35.50 Support http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZCOAL723.jpg
ZEquip&Svcs Index extended range break on volume. Extended. 48 Support http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZES723.jpg
SDRL 36.39 Break of two month high and tight consolidation. All time highs at 38.24
ATPG 16.23 Double top break out of a very tight consolidation pattern.
ANR 47.25 Break of 4 week consolidation after recent exhausiton low in June.
KOL 51.87 Break of 6 month consolidation after recent exhaustion low and H&S (weekly) failure in June.Daily Reverse H&S breakout on 7/20
PTEN Consolidating in high tight flag at 3 year highs.
ROSE High tight flag, support at 55
Recent Double Top Break
WLT ..strong coal group
Up on high volume
CPX
WFT
SD
Down on high volume
DNR
BAS
Other IB= Inside Bar, NR=Narrowest bar in the last X days, BBS=Volatility Squeeze C&H= Cup and Handle H&S =Head and Shoulders
EXXI IB, NR10, 37.20, 3 Year High Near
ATPG IB,NR10,BBS 16.25 Breakpoint
CNQ IB,NR10, Triple Top Break, Reverse H&S above 44
NFX IB,NR10,Recent C&H Break
SSN BBS,Double top break at 13.15
July 24th, 2011 at 1:47 pmThose bozos better get something inked…
July 24th, 2011 at 2:02 pmRep press conf by 6 pm EST, USD taking it on the chin early.
July 24th, 2011 at 3:12 pmNo agreement
http://www.businessinsider.com/live-coverage-the-debt-ceiling-negotiations-2011-7
July 24th, 2011 at 3:14 pmReid now talking $2.5 T in cuts and no tax increases.
July 24th, 2011 at 4:00 pmWhackjob Watch:
http://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Debate-over-longevity-of-Arkansas-gas-wells-1571283.php
July 24th, 2011 at 4:02 pmre 6 – see page 12
http://www.swn.com/investors/LIP/latestinvestorpresentation.pdf
Art Berman is a crack pot
July 24th, 2011 at 4:04 pmS&P Futs off 1%, gold at all time high
July 24th, 2011 at 5:07 pmZLT positions updated:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/
July 24th, 2011 at 5:57 pmGold > $1,620
July 24th, 2011 at 5:58 pmCrude off 60 cents …. holding up better than you'd think due to a weaker dollar
No catastrophe yet on the equity side, futures:
DJIA -111
SP -10
NAS -25
July 24th, 2011 at 6:28 pmFrom the site Z posted in #4 above…
7:39pm | Today's intrepid White House pool reporter, The Hill's Sam Youngman, on the state of the negotiations: "DC is a big bag of suck that couldn't solve a rubik's cube if it were all one color."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/live-coverage-the-debt-ceiling-negotiations-2011-7#pm79#ixzz1T4RdsW6X
July 24th, 2011 at 7:03 pmJustin – have you put together your TAT report?
July 24th, 2011 at 7:03 pmCheers.
Haven't seen much comment on Noble (NE). looks like some kind of bottom was formed. Not really a very positive chart, but energy has started to take off and this one is sitting out.
July 24th, 2011 at 7:13 pmS&P Futures…..Opened down to significant support area at 1329.
July 24th, 2011 at 8:20 pm1319 Minor CLVN Support
1310 Minor CLVN/Support
1300 Major CLVN/Support
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/24/FT71_ES_Intraday_Posted
Crude still holding minor support just under 99. Next support area at 98
July 24th, 2011 at 8:38 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/24/Crude_Composite
sdrl: attached fairly informative on rigs/day rates-looks healthy to me.
July 24th, 2011 at 8:55 pmhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/281164-seadrill-quarterly-fleet-analysis-expanded-fleet-increased-cash-flows
#17 thanks choices
July 24th, 2011 at 8:59 pmAppears that we may get a big red day tomorrow-I guess the really question is how long it will last-I have a shopping list but DO NOT want to jump the gun
July 24th, 2011 at 9:03 pmI-trade has it @25% by 7/31, down from ~40% but has gone up to 75% by 8/31-
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
credit downgrade 50/50 if anyone places any credence in anything rating agencies say-
Asian mkts not off all that much (yet):
July 24th, 2011 at 9:07 pmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/markets/
They'll get something worked out; market doesn't really believe they won't.
July 24th, 2011 at 9:41 pmelduque – I hate to break my promise of posting it in the Wrap. However, I don't want to shortcut my review just to make me feel alright about holding on. I punted six questions to TAT's IR (don't want to overdue the MMIII lifeline) after spending several hours on it yesterday and couple today. I'll pull it together as soon as I get a response. I'll also call IR to move things along as the contact is in the office tomorrow.
July 24th, 2011 at 10:20 pmPirates now operating off West Africa……….opening a whole new front for Ocean Piracy………..as they Hihacked an Italian Tanker toting Diesel Fuel
July 24th, 2011 at 11:04 pmhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14270010
Saw that, off Benin, right next to Nigeria
July 24th, 2011 at 11:05 pm#18-you are welcome, zorg-as you have said many times, any time.
July 25th, 2011 at 12:01 amThanks Justin – I am assuming that it is probably ok, but the one concern I had was whether or not they get the license to sell the nat. gas. Or at least that is what I thought I heard on the conference call. They implied that it was just a technicality that was holding it up. I am long TRGL, never figuring that a whole country could be so stupid. So I am a little more cautious, now.
July 25th, 2011 at 12:47 amEarly morning look..I'll post a later one prior to open if anything material changes
S&P Futures Areas of Interest 8 AM. Futures are finding balance around the 1329 CLVN in the O/N market. 1329 will be key support area today.
Above 1329 congestion thins out with 1342.75 area as key resistance.Any move much below O/N lows (1322) and the picture becomes much murkier.
1342.75 CLVN
1335.50 Minor CLVN
1329 CLVN,
1324.75 Minor CLVN,NVPOC 1323.75, O/N low 1322, Wed Close 1321.50, CHVN 1322
1319 Minor CLVN
1316.50 CHVN, O/N low 1315
1307.25 Major CHVN
1300 Major CLVN
CLVN =Composite Low Volume Node/ Rejection CHVN= Composite High Volume Node/Acceptance and Congestion
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/25/FT71_ES_Composite
July 25th, 2011 at 7:05 am