http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/05/06/561871/theres-still-room-for-more-oil-slides-goldman-says/ http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/Crude56.jpg
Looking at crude oil futures and trying to put it into some sort of technical context.
Here’s what I noticed.
Prior to the Middle East upheaval crude was trading roughly between 79 and 100.
The dominant acceptance area was 90, with a growing acceptance around 95. Any trading much beyond those areas were rejected as too high or too low and trading returned to the more accepted price levels.
The Egyptian uprising was unable to move price beyond previously accepted levels.
The Libyan uprisings happened at precisely the most dominant acceptance area for the entire range and price quickly extended to 106, well beyond the previous range.
Tests lower were checked at around 98.
Over the next several months 106 became the most accepted price as a fear premium. When the price exceeded 114 on two occasions, it took an outside event to reject those new highs.
After the price break following the OBL news, price briefly returned to the previous acceptance area at 95 and rotated back to 98.
The major areas of acceptance in play now are 95 and 106 with the low volume area around the high 98 level the as a major inflection point.
The area between 95 and 106 are likely to be volatile and fast moving as price attempts to discover a new point of equilibrium.
HAL Pulled back and closed above long term and recent acceptance at 45.70. Area of interest around 45 as possible near term support. 42 a major area of interest.
49.23 Minor CLVN
47.68 Minor CLVN
46.67 Close
45.70 Major CHVN
44.71 CLVN
42 Major CLVN
CHVN = Composite High Volume Node = Acceptance/Congestion
CLVN = Composite Low Volume Node = Rejection
Close= Last close. http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/05/08/Stock_Composite2_4
KOG Charts Part 2 ABC's
BTW..I started to look at KOG because Z mentioned it might be interesting in a pull back @ 10:49 PST.
He didn’t mention how big a pull back he might be interested in so I thought I’d have a look.
The chart I posted at the time was to see how KOG was trading and to finding where the acceptance and rejection areas
have been. If there’s a definable area do business in I go to another type of Volume Profile Chart that breaks out
in greater detail what is going on in that area of interest, if price comes into that general area.
I mentioned that I use other charts. I’ve posted the other one I used for KOG below.
Looking at the next chart I could see that there had been very low/no volume drop early Friday below the area of
interest at 6.14 and was quickly rejected as too low. Sellers left the building.Buyers looking for them.
KOG traded up through 6.14 to the CLVN at 6.53 on volume and from there and gradually fell back to the
6.14 area during the call. VPOC formed at 6.20 after 6.14 was tested and again showed that sellers were still not
available below the 6.14 area, at least today. I noticed that Friday’s VPOC was higher than Thursday’s.
I also noticed that the longer term EOM on the chart had gone positive further confirming that the path of least
resistance, at least in this intra-day time frame, was up
I took a shot. Filled at 6.21, higher than optimum…didn’t use a Lmt order.
Resistance is at Minor CLVN 6.34 then Major CLVN 6.53. Acceptance above is 6.70
Because this was an added trading position I will scale out as I get into the levels above depending on
how the stock /market acts.Stops are below Thursdays VPOC at Thursdays Close area. 6.09
This is a very short term swing trade example of how I use VP. The charts I post will always have potential areas
of price rejection in shaded rectangles. Use it as a guide to where price is expected to change behavior, not that
it ought to or should. It'll do what it wants. That's where risk control comes in. http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/05/08/IntraDay_Stock
The ROSE quarter was quite strong, guidance (net of divested volumes) going up. It is becoming a pure Eagle Ford play where they are growing faster than expected with a Southern Alberta Basin exploration upside angle. Conference call Monday, details on the quarter in the Monday post. I continue to hold it in the ZLT.
ROSE
Sold off to just above the Major CHVN at 36.92 during the recent unpleasantness,quickly snapped back to new recent acceptance at the CHVN @42.65 in the AM Friday, falling back to Minor CLVN @ 41 during last Fridays afternoon market drop. Volume on Thursday's quick reversal and Friday's push to acceptance was above average. 42.65 seems to be the dominant acceptance/value area. Acceptance Higher at 45.
Selling pressure is drying up Additional support below at 39.84
42.65 Major CHVN
41 Minor CLVN
39.84 CLVN
36.93 Major CHVN
CHVN = Acceptance/Value/Balance CLVN = Rejection VPOC= Most accepted price by buyers and sellers. http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/05/08/Stock_Composite2_6
The disappearing ball explanation combined with the micro-seis discovery is what turned me off of the ball dropping / sleeve technique.
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http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/05/06/561871/theres-still-room-for-more-oil-slides-goldman-says/
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/Crude56.jpg
Looking at crude oil futures and trying to put it into some sort of technical context.
Here’s what I noticed.
Prior to the Middle East upheaval crude was trading roughly between 79 and 100.
The dominant acceptance area was 90, with a growing acceptance around 95. Any trading much beyond those areas were rejected as too high or too low and trading returned to the more accepted price levels.
The Egyptian uprising was unable to move price beyond previously accepted levels.
The Libyan uprisings happened at precisely the most dominant acceptance area for the entire range and price quickly extended to 106, well beyond the previous range.
Tests lower were checked at around 98.
Over the next several months 106 became the most accepted price as a fear premium.
When the price exceeded 114 on two occasions, it took an outside event to reject those new highs.
After the price break following the OBL news, price briefly returned to the previous acceptance area at 95 and rotated back to 98.
The major areas of acceptance in play now are 95 and 106 with the low volume area around the high 98 level the as a major inflection point.
The area between 95 and 106 are likely to be volatile and fast moving as price attempts to discover a new point of equilibrium.
Don Coxe Audio for May 6th..Scroll down, located on right hand column.
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/
Volume Profile-thanks again, Zorg-will take a look.
XLE Uptend resolving into a trading range. Low volume support area below 73.90 is a major area of interest on any pull back.
76.43 Minor CLVN
75.60-75.80 Major CHVN
75.36 Minor CLVN
74.70 Close
73.63-73.25 Major CLVN
CHVN = Composite High Volume Node = Acceptance/Congestion
CLVN = Composite Low Volume Node = Rejection
Close= Last close.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/05/08/Stock_Composite2_3
Happy Mother's Day
I'll finish the wrap after brunch.
HAL Pulled back and closed above long term and recent acceptance at 45.70. Area of interest around 45 as possible near term support. 42 a major area of interest.
49.23 Minor CLVN
47.68 Minor CLVN
46.67 Close
45.70 Major CHVN
44.71 CLVN
42 Major CLVN
CHVN = Composite High Volume Node = Acceptance/Congestion
CLVN = Composite Low Volume Node = Rejection
Close= Last close.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/05/08/Stock_Composite2_4
KOG Charts Part 2 ABC's
BTW..I started to look at KOG because Z mentioned it might be interesting in a pull back @ 10:49 PST.
He didn’t mention how big a pull back he might be interested in so I thought I’d have a look.
The chart I posted at the time was to see how KOG was trading and to finding where the acceptance and rejection areas
have been. If there’s a definable area do business in I go to another type of Volume Profile Chart that breaks out
in greater detail what is going on in that area of interest, if price comes into that general area.
I mentioned that I use other charts. I’ve posted the other one I used for KOG below.
Looking at the next chart I could see that there had been very low/no volume drop early Friday below the area of
interest at 6.14 and was quickly rejected as too low. Sellers left the building.Buyers looking for them.
KOG traded up through 6.14 to the CLVN at 6.53 on volume and from there and gradually fell back to the
6.14 area during the call. VPOC formed at 6.20 after 6.14 was tested and again showed that sellers were still not
available below the 6.14 area, at least today. I noticed that Friday’s VPOC was higher than Thursday’s.
I also noticed that the longer term EOM on the chart had gone positive further confirming that the path of least
resistance, at least in this intra-day time frame, was up
I took a shot. Filled at 6.21, higher than optimum…didn’t use a Lmt order.
Resistance is at Minor CLVN 6.34 then Major CLVN 6.53. Acceptance above is 6.70
Because this was an added trading position I will scale out as I get into the levels above depending on
how the stock /market acts.Stops are below Thursdays VPOC at Thursdays Close area. 6.09
This is a very short term swing trade example of how I use VP. The charts I post will always have potential areas
of price rejection in shaded rectangles. Use it as a guide to where price is expected to change behavior, not that
it ought to or should. It'll do what it wants. That's where risk control comes in.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/05/08/IntraDay_Stock
This chart goes with above…
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/KOG2.jpg
The ROSE quarter was quite strong, guidance (net of divested volumes) going up. It is becoming a pure Eagle Ford play where they are growing faster than expected with a Southern Alberta Basin exploration upside angle. Conference call Monday, details on the quarter in the Monday post. I continue to hold it in the ZLT.
ROSE
Sold off to just above the Major CHVN at 36.92 during the recent unpleasantness,quickly snapped back to new recent acceptance at the CHVN @42.65 in the AM Friday, falling back to Minor CLVN @ 41 during last Fridays afternoon market drop. Volume on Thursday's quick reversal and Friday's push to acceptance was above average. 42.65 seems to be the dominant acceptance/value area. Acceptance Higher at 45.
Selling pressure is drying up Additional support below at 39.84
42.65 Major CHVN
41 Minor CLVN
39.84 CLVN
36.93 Major CHVN
CHVN = Acceptance/Value/Balance CLVN = Rejection VPOC= Most accepted price by buyers and sellers.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/05/08/Stock_Composite2_6
Monday post is up.