21
Mar

Spring Break

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Market Sentiment Watch:Merger Monday in full force with $40 B in two big but non energy deals and an Eagle Ford joint venture have both the broad market and the energy group excited this morning.  Ghaddafi pushed his luck and belief in the U.N.'s inability to act too far and is now paying the price for it. As many are pointing out, the end game there is far from certain but it is a good bet production from the country will be largely offline for the short and medium term. I am out of the office this week but will be checking in from time to time. Although we did spy a BP disaster recovery site on the way in we can vouch for the cleanliness of the sands in Gulf Shores.The water looks clean and the horizon remains happily dotted with production platforms whose lights and flares and an extra sparkle to the night time horizon.

The Week Ahead:

  • Monday 3/21: existing home sales,
  • Tuesday 3/22: FHA home prices,
  • Wednesday 3/23: EIA Oil Inventory Report, new home sales,
  • Thursday 3/24: EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report, jobless claims, durable goods,
  • Friday 3/25: GDP revision for 4Q (F=3.1%), consumer sentiment


Not Much In Today’s Post:

Commodity Watch

Crude oil closed flat last week at $101.25. This morning crude is trading up  about $2 on the Middle East action and strong equity futures.

Natural gas closed up 7% at $4.17 on Friday after EIA reported what was probably the last notable withdrawal of the season.  This morning gas is trading up slightly.  


Stuff We Care About Today

APC Signs Eagle Ford JV with Korean National Oil Company (KNOC)

  • $1.55 B JV for about 1/3 of APC's position in the Eagle Ford shale
  • JV will be in the form of a carry with with KNOC receiving 80,000 net acres in the EFS and another 16,000 in the deeper Pearshall.
  • APC noted that it has been expanding it's midstream to keep pace with it's development of the Basin and that it's production is approximately 75% liquids
  • We mused about more Asian deals for US shale assets last week after the Japanese situation became more clear and while this deal has clearly been in the works for longer than that look for more of them in the not too distant future.


128 Responses to “Spring Break”

  1. 1
    milepost_43 Says:

    A site I follow is recommending PDC as follows. Did a site search but didn't really find an info. Any thoughts appreciated.
    Pioneer Drilling Co. (PDC) is a contract oil and gas drilling and production company based in San Antonio, Texas. The chart is in great shape, the sector is on the move, and this time of year is typically very strong for these shares. Buy now for an initial target of $14.30. Set the initial stop at $11.40. If this trade starts to work, we'll add May $12 calls next week.

  2. 2
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Service Sector M&A = Dawson is buying TGE in an all-stock deal that values TGE at $8/share based on share prices.  This is a nice premium to TGE's Friday $6.83 close, but no where near the peak price of $12 TGE saw during the last energy cycle.  Suggests there is still lots o' running room in service sector valuations.  (Although on-shore seismic service companies command pretty low valuations, even in the best of times… you can pick up a seismic crew for about 3-4x EBITDA.)

  3. 3
    tomdavis12 Says:

    MP: CHK owned 25% of PDC in '04 – '05. That is before they decided to run their own rigs.   

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Jim Cramer (wearing his market technician hat) says to buy e&p on the morning pull-back.
     
    I can't disagree.  Japan seems to be better… Middle East seems to be worse.  Both factors favor owning oil.

  5. 5
    andy Says:

    TGE     still need to thk whoever called TGE to this boards attention about a month ago. and caused me to buy some.  take some credit!!!!!!!

  6. 6
    bill Says:

    cxpo filed their 10 k. Lost 20 m in q4, 50 cents a share
    repriced roughly 1.0 options from 11 to 5
     for mgts good work
    No press release on earnings, yet

  7. 7
    isleworth Says:

    That was me re TGE. Brought up 9 months ago too at $3.50  šŸ™‚

  8. 8
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #6 Mngt options should NEVER be repriced!  That is literally insiders stealing from the outsider shareholder base.  Disgusting.

  9. 9
    isleworth Says:

    TGE at .188 DWSN is about $8 now……

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Nice work, isle!!

  11. 11
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    When you have to ask yourself "who, in their right mind, would SHORT energy here?"… maybe it's time to short energy here.  On the other hand, who in their right mind would???
     
    Global economy better… buy oil.
    Middle East in turmoil… buy oil
    Inflation on the horizon… buy oil.
    Japan rebuilding… buy oil.
    Salazar/Bromwich still running the domestic show… buy oil.
     
    Massive global slowdown… don't buy oil.
     
    Seems a little lopsided to me.  Kudos to everyone who stuck out The Furry Paw and scooped up more energy-related stocks last week.  That's the way you gots to deal with Uncle Vol.

  12. 12
    mimster90 Says:

    re 6 Are they becoming like CHK and SD? Where the share holders are their personal bank. CXPO is now on a very very short leash with me and I will be dumping my shares sometime in the next few weeks.

  13. 13
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    SSN… insiders exercise almost 3mm of options struck at 1.5¢…
    and the Crowd Goes Wild!!!!!!!

  14. 14
    andy Says:

    isle   –  thks     know anything abt DWSN?  BOP – u??

  15. 15
    isleworth Says:

    Thanks BOP. The seismic mini was seriously undervalued. This deal makes a lot of sense. DWSN was $50 three weeks ago……  šŸ™‚

  16. 16
    bill Says:

    cigx pushing 4. Congrats bop

  17. 17
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    DSWN is trading at 12.1x 09/2011 EBITDA and 5.2x 09/2012 EBITDA… according to bloomberg estimates.  Could run to 7.0x EBITDA with the cycle…

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Just to compare… HAL is trading at 7.8x 12/2011 and 6.7x 12/2012 EBITDA…

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    thanks, bill.  No idea what level CIGX decides to stick at… but know there are lots of positive things that could (and should) happen between now and July.  So, sticking around, not selling a share… added at close on Friday…

  20. 20
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — thanks for your work on TPLM.  Back at $8 now. 

  21. 21
    Dillon Says:

    tplm breaking through 8.
    Anyone know anything of substance on EVEP's nice run last Friday? If I were a betting man, and I soon will be on this one given a pullback, I'd say it has something to do with their huge leasehold in the Utica (mostly Ohio).

  22. 22
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RMD might have something he can say about the Utica…
     
    also, eli, doesn't MHR have a slug of Utica-potential acreage?

  23. 23
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Feb Existing Home Sales fall 9.6% vs expectations of a 4.5% decrease.  Sucks to be Lennar or Hovnanian, imho.

  24. 24
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (On the other hand, saw a picture of Ara Hovnanian stepping out at a Charity Ball in the NYT the other weekend… he didn't look too unhappy to me.)

  25. 25
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: On the drilling news expected from MMR/EXXI. What are you looking for most importantly? Pay zones – total size – how quick to market? What is the market not expecting? What is expected? What are your biggest concerns – places for disappointments? Didn't really save this question, just for you. Thinking we are getting much closer to soemthing important.  

  26. 26
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Warren Buffett on the 3 Ds… buying on Death, Destruction, Divorce…
    http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.59c9179dd6dee0a41928bcf240caa589.431&show_article=1

  27. 27
    mimster90 Says:

    Evep I thought had about 80,000 acres in Utica.

  28. 28
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Eli: I see your MHR.D started trading today. Do you have a range you would nibble at? Thanks. 

  29. 29
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tomdavis — #25 whoa, Big Fella… brain's not kicked into high gear yet… gotta get more caffeine… that's quite the homework list you laid out for me.  Short answer, bot more EXXI sub-30 last week.  Kinda gets to the heart of your query….

  30. 30
    DrLink Says:

    Korean National Oil just paid almost $20K/acre for Eagleford acreage; imagine what that makes MHR's holdings worth now.

    Anadarko inks $1.6 billion Korea National Oil deal

    (8:02 AM ET) NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC 78.55, +1.28, +1.66%) said Monday the Korea National Oil Corp. agreed to pay $1.55 billion for a one-third interest in its Maverick Basin assets in the Eagleford Shale in Texas. As part of the deal, Korea National Oil Corp. will receive 80,000 net acres in the region. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter.

  31. 31
    snuhart Says:

    RE 25 I too think we re getting closer to announcements fromt MMR and NOG and EXXI.
    I m heavily overwght long the 1st two and am fearful that (recent) tape action is not predicting upbeat news.
    Fingernails getting shorter.

  32. 32
    mimster90 Says:

    Is MHR's Eagleford holding the same part of the play as APC? What does this do for the value of HK's Eagleford holdings?

  33. 33
    tomdavis12 Says:

    29 Any simple and quick thoughts also welcome. Looking at selling some naked puts as we get closer to news.  

  34. 34
    isleworth Says:

    Andy – congrats! Don't know DWSN as well……agree with BOP on multiple expansion potential as we are still early in the cycle……. further consolidation and better pricing power should help with margin expansion too.

  35. 35
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    mimster — if you have the time, go pull up APC's and MHR's and HK's latest presentations and see if their EFS holdings overlap.  Would love to hear your thoughts.

  36. 36
    blackgold39 Says:

    NFX running, probably on EFS JV news

  37. 37
    mimster90 Says:

    re 35 time like this really miss zmans encyclopedic knowledge of who owns what where. No time at work to do that research will do it tonight.

  38. 38
    DrLink Says:

    http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/80/80451/2011_APCInvestorCall_Feb24.pdf  page 35

    http://www.magnumhunterresources.com/Magnum_Hunter_Resources.pdf  page 12

    APC seems southwest of MHR and HK

  39. 39
    elduque Says:

    Aloha everyone, Have been on the mainland the last week and boy is it nice to be warm again.

    Re EFS, don't forget GDP. Do you still like it BOP?
     

  40. 40
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Comments from the GS Credit Market Desk on the APC EFS transaction…
     
    Anadarko management had been very public their participation in discussions regarding an Eagle Ford JV, so this transaction should come as no surprise. We believe the valuation, however, is above comparable transactions, even after adjusting for the fact that all of the consideration is in the form of drilling carry. Using our 15% discount rate assumption, the Anadarko JV prices at $13.3k/acre on a present value basis, a 33% premium to the Chesapeake JV and a 44% premium to Pioneer. One would have to assume a discount rate of 65% on the carry for the Anadarko JV to discount to the same valuation as the Chesapeake JV.

  41. 41
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elduque — I'm still long GDP.  Looking for a much higher price there than $21.50.  Was trying to recall who was asking about the name, when it slumped to $18 or so last week… it was you.  Nice buy down there!

  42. 42
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    mim — i'm printing out APC, MHR, and GDP EFS holdings… vested interest in answering the question.  Will get back to you.  And thanks for the help, Dr. Link.  Please feel way-free to post your thoughts on the acreage positions.

  43. 43
    irongate Says:

    NOG Shorts are circling.    
      sorry folks… I posted this on the weekend wrap earlier…  it should be here so you se whats going on.
    this is another citron/muddywaters wannabe. they havent been able to move stocks recently…. likely b/c they dont have a big subscription base (free i might add). but this could put NOG on the radar of some of the more prestigious short websites… namely http://www.muddywaters.com or http://www.citronresearch.com.
    so be alert… tighten your stops

    here's the story
    http://www.thestreetsweeper.org/undersurveillance.html?i=1665

  44. 44
    tomdavis12 Says:

    SDRL received a  5 yr order from COP for some new JU equip. Would be a buyer of SDRL $33 – $34.25.  

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    APC + EFS JV = GDP the winner, so far.  GDP acreage on trend and to the NE from APC's Dimmit Co. holdings.  Their wells IP'd at similar rates to APC's too.  However, GDP only paid a net $1,650/acre for their EFS land grub. 

  46. 46
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (make that "land grubstake")

  47. 47
    blackgold39 Says:

    HAL Apr $50s are starting to wake up from slumber

  48. 48
    Dillon Says:

    mhr has land more in the gonzales county area. They have small holdings in the northern edge of the extent in Atascosa County also. Not positive but some of their gonzales stuff may bleed over into Lavaca county because I believe a lot of it is right there on the line.

  49. 49
    blackgold39 Says:

    OAS – are they poised for a breakout?  Any TAs out there want to give that one a shot?

  50. 50
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Just spoke with our resident landman/geologist/general info guy… reef.  Says only companies in the Maverick Basin EFS with APC = NFX and SM.  But he conceeds that GDP is a nice, close beneficiary too.

  51. 51
    elijahwc Says:

     "doesn't MHR have a slug of Utica-potential acreage?  Yup BOP thats the thought although G Evan made the statement that it wasn't a point focus currently.   Obviously parroting similar thought by Aubrey M.  Okay Gary.  Got what you and Aubrey are saying lol.


    Sort of like being a mid-major basketball coach this time of year saying you have no interest in the big higher paying digs that just opened up .



  52. 52
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elijah — yeah… heard that "don't throw me into no BRIAR PATCH" comment from Gary too.  ha.  Nice poker face, eh?

  53. 53
    blackgold39 Says:

    re 50 – NFX is showing it

  54. 54
    elijahwc Says:

    TD #28 MHRpD:  It priced in the hole hence the $47 open.  Won't last the week so any bought at a discount is timely.  After that I will be from time to time be picking so up on X divi dates.   

  55. 55
    andy Says:

    eli     u have the ex-div dates?
    bop – u read that melissa davis art on NOG that ieongate linked? comment?

  56. 56
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    andy — i don't have a lot to say about NOG.  Owned it for a couple of hours a few weeks back.  Made some $$ on it.  But it's one I've chosen not to focus on… so, not a lot of help on that name.

  57. 57
    mimster90 Says:

    re 50 isn't HK in the Eagleford also or are they in a totally different part? They haven't gotten any bump from the deal announcement

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Re EFS beneficiaries. All the names in the play will get a little mark up. The closest acreage to APC is going to be NFX, SFY (they are interspersed with the APC acreage), and SM with HK not far away. I'll have a table out tomorrow in a punch list post of things that don't get addressed today.
     

    Irongate – thanks for bringing the NOG story up. Their lead point on depletion is overblown and deceptive. ALL E&P COMPANIES true up DD&A at the end of EVERY year as they release reserves.  So those shorts see smoke with no fire. The other stuff would be more of a concern if the firm had a complex operation to run which they don't. I skimmed it but it's hard to get past their opening language which uses adjectives best suited for teenage poetry or Micky Spillane novels.

     

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Mim – HK is in the fairway of the play, also in the west in Zavalla county (nearish to APC) and in the east. These are their Hawkville, Blackhawk and Redhawk focus areas, they are 4th largest in terms off acreage in the EFS.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Re 55, see 58. I'll have more to say on that in tomorrow's post but I can tell she's not an E&P analyst from that opening bit about depletion.  She might be good at writing slam pieces but she should probably stay away from energy as this is a different game.  Also, not the lack of math in that. Pretty much fear and innuendo. Sheesh. People like that should just write for Motley Fool.

  61. 61
    snuhart Says:

    re 58 & 60 thanxs. What a relief !

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Re 61, no seal of approval but they have to do better than that to give me pause. The bottom line is that the bottom (and the top one for that matter) continues to perform. More in the afternoon, off to the beach. Even NOG and CHK up now.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    Nice to see the TPLM moving
    SSN running too, should see HAL well spud news in next 10 days

    EOG getting a lift on the EFS news

    I'll have CXPO comments tomorrow.

    OK, really off to the beach

  64. 64
    blackgold39 Says:

    re 60 – that was a hit piece to end all hit pieces.

  65. 65
    Dillon Says:

    Was interrogating a guy over the phone in Ohio I do business with about leasing ongoing in those parts…..he said from locals up there word is from youngstown, OH over to either Altoona, PA or McKeesport, PA is the new area that i being leased up for what always was NG and now believed to be oil as well. Just a few more details to throw in the mix.

  66. 66
    Dillon Says:

    …in the utica shale that is.

  67. 67
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dillon — thanks for the Utica color… did your guy mention any specific companies that might be going into a hyperdrive-leasing push there?

  68. 68
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    stepping away for an hour… but don't let that stop anyone… some great info posted this morning.  keep it up.

  69. 69
    Dillon Says:

    no he didnt. he wasnt exactly the sort that would know details like that. All he said was that landmen were everywhere which we already knew. He is a tubing distributor so couldnt really help me out with those kinds of details especially since his 9000sqft lot his house sits on in town had not been leased (which he had wishful thinking on).

  70. 70
    elijahwc Says:

    #67 The known name is CHK
     
    From Shale Daily
     
     
    "Other deals continue to be made behind closed doors as well. Although McClendon didn't mention it publicly at the conference in Grapevine Wednesday, later that day in the quarterly earnings report the company said it acquired a "significant additional position in the Appalachian Basin from privately held Anschutz Corp.," a transaction about which NGI's Shale Daily reported in October (see Shale DailyOct. 8).
    The $850 million transaction, scheduled to close later this month, includes 500,000 net acres and option rights. Chesapeake already plans to resell about 25% of the acquisition while the remainder would be combined with an estimable leasehold of more than one million net acres in the play. A new JV is anticipated in the first half of 2011."
     
     
    Italy, didn't your family have interest up Utica way?

  71. 71
    Dillon Says:

    Chesapeake acquired over 1 million acres(1 billion USD) in the Utica and no one knows the full story? EVEP and Enervest together have roughly 2 million acres in the Utica.

  72. 72
    elijahwc Says:

    A while back (early Dec), West mused upon a "potential" combo of CXO and BAS which he suggested would be a good fit for CXO and make CXO look a lot like PXD structurally.
     
    BAS & CXO have become virtual mirror images put in next 52 week highs ever since.
     
    Shout out to West for delivering the results even without the transaction.
     
    which could still happen..eh?

  73. 73
    elijahwc Says:

    "putting in new 52 week highs" in #72
     
    Bad typist

  74. 74
    1520sbroad Says:

    In the clean frac group micro mini ESPH putting on a good move today.  I haven't seen any news other than the 10k they put out last week.  Maybe that some penny stock newsletter put them on the front cover this morning.  It is nice to see the stock move a bit – it was stuck on the 60 cent mark for the past few months. 

  75. 75
    italyinvestor Says:

    elijah – yes.  Family and extended family have about 1000 acres in east central Ohio.  Most in Carrol county and the recent leasing check i handled said CHK on it.  Drilling is ongoing about 2 miles west of their land.  Will check the website to see if it has been completed.  They have been at it for a month.  According to my mother in law a pad is being prepared on a neighbor's land a bit closer.  When I get back home in 2 months i'll start doing some digging.  My brother in law is a county sheriff so he knows everything and i get to ride along.  Will conduct some close target recons as we like to call them.

  76. 76
    1520sbroad Says:

    I wouldn't be surprised if SWN pops up in one of these newer plays like the Utica as a big acreage acquirer.  Their Q4 report and call had them leasing up a decent amount of acres in a yet to be disclosed spot.

  77. 77
    italyinvestor Says:

    We'll not done or not reported yet.  They plugged at 8900ft to go horizontal.

  78. 78
    Dman Says:

    BOP – whose divorce do we have to wait for to buy stocks? šŸ™‚
     
    I'd be more impressed with Mr Buffet's views on Japan if he did some actual research. For example he could move to Japan and eat radioactive spinach for 6 months, with radioactive milk for refreshment, and then tell us what he thinks.
     
    Seriously though, I'm skeptical that "no news is good news" coming out of Japan. They seem to have a nasty habit of sitting on the bad news until someone discovers a new radioactive farm and then they have to fess up.
     
    I'm finding it hard to get any sort of accurate information, but one thing I'm certain of is that we have got a monumental flustercluck going on at that reactor site.  Since they are (trying to) use seawater for coolant, all the stainless steel structures within the reactors are corroding rapidly. There was a recent release of "grey smoke" from one reactor, but the technicians couldn't even guess as to what caused it, nor why it eventually stopped.  They couldn't guess because they don't have a clear picture of what is going on in the reactors, which are now so far beyond any kind of design envelope that nobody can even count how many new failure modes they have sprouted. But since the stainless steel plumbing is going to fail soon, that's alotta failure modes.  I think the best case scenario is that the site keeps belching radioactive steam/smoke/dust for months. If they decide to just flood the place with seawater, then it will be leaching radiation into the sea instead, which they might prefer. Worst case? Well we still don't know if the spent fuel pool in #4 reactor is dry or not. If it is, then some kind of meltdown could still be on the table. 
    As I understand it, the seawall was 5 meters high and the tsunami was 10 meters, so that's why there's a problem. For reference, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was up to 30 meters high. What was the morning coffee conversation at TEPCO the day after that?  "Oh well, too bad we already built the nukes, we'll just have to cross our fingers" ?   Or "… why worry about 30 meter tsunamis in Japan, home of earthquakes and tsunamis"?   My mind is still in the process of boggling, but I guess there's no mystery why nobody trusts the nuke industry.

  79. 79
    Dman Says:

    Oh wait, I get it. The divorce will be Mr Buffet's when Mrs Buffet says "I am not moving to Japan to eat radioactive spinach". 

  80. 80
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    "Divorce" doesn't come along all that often (vs the other 2 Ds)… but when it does, i've seen it create some interesting opportunities.
     
    Also, nobody trusts any industry.  As well they shouldn't.  And they shouldn't trust governments either.  All that stuff is run by men (and women)… and last time I checked, men aren't Angels.  However, there is risk to everything we do.  The world doesn't function (in the real world) without risk.  Key is to try to learn from what is going on in Japan and not repeat it. 
     
    Learn from disasters, 'cuz you can't run away from every single risk in the world.  Well… guess you can… but that would mean you're no longer "of this world."  (See the 1st "D" above.)
     
    Musing….

  81. 81
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    “Divorce” probably has a larger role in real estate transactions, fwiw. It’s just a saying… but it’s a time-tested one, for sure.

  82. 82
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TPLM — thanks to z, took a bit of that apple. Tasty stuff. Thank you, z!!

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Lunch time check in, OII, day late there, new highs today, CAM and HAL moving nicely as well

    TPLM at $8.40, always funny to me that people would rather buy because a stock is moving than because it is cheap on the currently applicable metric for it.

    Good to see GEOI moving up again following the post quarterly press release swoon

    NOG – up 2%

    Positions in the ZLT were updated over the weekend by the way

  84. 84
    elduque Says:

    SD- anybody care to conjecture why it is trading so strong.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Didn’t see 82 before 83 was posted, not referring to you BOP, knew you to be in already anyway.

  86. 86
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP = someone finally put 1 and 1 together and got 2. As in “gots 2 buy this stock.” EFS holdings, getting oiler, growing CFPS, and holding a natty gas option with HBP acreage. Nice pillow stock.

  87. 87
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ha! My TPLM buy was last week… below the 2ndary price. Couldn’t resist. Still enjoying the lunch, tho. Would be a buyer here too (so not selling). Munch munch munch.

  88. 88
    Dman Says:

    BOP – if you drive a car, you’ve invested a lot of trust in a bunch of engineers from the car industry.

    If you eat any kind of food bought from a store, you’ve invested a lot of trust in the food growing, processing and handling industries.

    If you get on a plane… well you get the point.

    We actually do believe a lot of what these industries tell us because mostly they tell the truth. That is where the nuke industry is different. Listening to their attempts to spin this disaster has been vomit-inducing.

  89. 89
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — ugh… your last sentence. I totally get what you are saying… but NOT during my TPLM Munch-Fest. I was savoring that…

    šŸ˜‰

  90. 90
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Munched on some more GDP this morning too… right when I first mentioned it. Think we see some analysts rethinking their price targets and maybe inch up a little closer to Michael Bodino’s $30.

    They should, anyway.

  91. 91
    ram Says:

    I see Zman’s going to follow up on CXPO, but is this just bad management with good resources?

  92. 92
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — I am curious as to what z says about Sex-po.
    I sold my actively-managed GST for that reason (still hold in long-term accounts… just too cheap on a NAV valuation, imho). But if you’re gonna watch it every day… better make sure it’s Good Looking. Don’t wanna be staring at no Ugly Stocks, first thing in the morning. Life’s Too Short.

  93. 93
    blackgold39 Says:

    Anyone follow GPOR? Their 6 month is exploding, wondering what their movement can be attributed to….not a tiny company, but definitely dispersed assets, including what i am guessing is some upside driving the stock in Canada….

  94. 94
    blackgold39 Says:

    TPLM just had some hot money entering…

  95. 95
    Dman Says:

    Looking at ECA, GDP, HK, you could almost think that NG has a future. And those charts have got a lot of room overhead on the weekly.

  96. 96
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TPLM — blackgold, maybe the underwriters are done placing the Green Shoe too??

  97. 97
    blackgold39 Says:

    re 96 – their chart is hilarious

  98. 98
    Dman Says:

    BOP – TPLM, OAS, WLL and SDCJF are greening up my screen. Can’t complain there. But why did I sell my KOG? Ah well, can’t have everything.

    There is a battle royale going on in silver at the $36 level. Stocks seem to be saying it will be won by the bulls.

  99. 99
    Dman Says:

    BOP – While Z is at the beach, here’s a question I always wanted to ask:

    Why is it a shoe and why is it green?

  100. 100
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — TPLM may be a faster horse than KOG right now. But you have a heck of a stable in the Bakken Kids. Can’t own ’em all (but you gots a bunch already).

    One can only watch so many at once… too many, and something will reach around and bite ya on the butt. I know. I gots the teeth marks to prove it.

  101. 101
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    First done with a company called “The Green Shoe” company… is what I’ve been told.

    We no longer have a Green Shoe Company around… but we still have the Brown Shoe Company. (Just some useless trivia.)

  102. 102
    blackgold39 Says:

    the hottest day in the patch in some time, and Z has to miss it

    *pouring one out for the homeys*

  103. 103
    Dman Says:

    #101 They probably never thunk they’d be immortalized in such a strange way.

  104. 104
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 93. Yes, I am in GPOR. Today they announced a stock offering that will dilute their stock by 4.49% but allow them to buy some Utica property. And the stock is up 7.49% today. Wow šŸ™‚

  105. 105
    Dillon Says:

    BOP – What day of this week will your eagerly awaited presentation on the OT stock be? Is everyone else trying to act like they aren’t interested….

  106. 106
    Hoss Says:

    Interior Approves First Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Exploration Plan with Post-Deepwater Horizon Environmental Review

    http://www.doi.gov/news/pressreleases/Interior-Approves-First-Gulf-of-Mexico-Deepwater-Exploration-Plan-with-Post-Deepwater-Horizon-Environmental-Review.cfm

  107. 107
    mimster90 Says:

    My plate overflows from so many good ideas from Zman, BOP, VTZ, West and so many others here. Strategically I am a strong believer in #11 [most probable futures point to the price of oil and energy going up] and I think 2012 will be a pivotal year for oil and energy. I have been searching/struggling for a balance with #100 for the last several weeks.

  108. 108
    bill Says:

    Uncle Cramer will have eog papa on tonight

  109. 109
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dillon — thank you so much for asking. Not sure people were interested… so appreciate your comment.

    We get an exclusive “Zman Only” conference call with the CEO on Friday at 11 am EDT. I’ll give you the name and short description on Thursday afternoon. Hopefully, some people will be on the call the next day and ask questions. It’s a great opportunity to hear about a company from the guy who runs it. Plus, ya never know what new thing you might learn, just from listening in.

    Thanks again. Hopefully, it will be an exercise for Fun AND Profit! (Hint: it’s not another CIGX type of stock… this one is much more straightfoward, but much much smaller.)

  110. 110
    elduque Says:

    No fair BOP, we will only have half a day to clutter on Z's website.

  111. 111
    1520sbroad Says:

    #109 – BOP – I'm in… KOG was about 75 cents the first time I remember you talking about it.  Hope you have another one lined up.

  112. 112
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elduque — yeah… think we should open it up on Friday afternoon for everybody to post their best OT stock ideas.  "Friday OT Day" is the price z pays for taking a Spring Break Vacation.  When he's here, tho, I do try to stick to energy-only… for the most part… usually, anyway… unless CIGX is doing something crazy.
     
    By the way, there is a great report out on CIGX from a private newsletter that was sent to subscribers on Thursday.  Someone got ahold of it and is sending it around.  Here's the link… tells the entire bio-medical story.  Fascinating read… even if you have no interest in CIGX stock.  The part about aging is extremely interesting.
     
    http://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/14511094/1089346374/name/%5E2011-03-18+Anatabine+Issue_noPortfolio.pdf

  113. 113
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Thanks, 1520s.  Glad to have you aboard!
    (KOG is energy-related… this new one is purposefully off-topic… so we can't talk much about it when z gets back.)

  114. 114
    RB Says:

    re: 109…I'm interested in the new micro cap OT stock…
    video card, I think that's whaat it is,  went kaput on my main trading puter and I've been on laptop and Bloomberg all day with low visibility which is why I've nto shown interest,

  115. 115
    RB Says:

    I can imagine Z somwhere in st. bart's lying on the beach wearning nuttin but a smile

  116. 116
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RB — #115… sure you are not projecting??  šŸ˜‰
     
    Glad to have you on board for Friday.  It's a small company, but facing a huge opportunity.  And I likes thems kinds of odds.  Caveat:  patience is required.  (Time Arbitrage)

  117. 117
    crysball Says:

    GOM & Shell news:
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110321/ap_on_re_us/us_gulf_oil_spill_drilling

  118. 118
    mimster90 Says:

    BOP any info on EXXI's recent purchase reserves or MMR's stuck drill bit?

  119. 119
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    mim — If Schiller is not worried about the Exxon properties, I'm not worried.  Haven't heard the "Exxon left NOTHING behind" rumor… but if it's true, it would be a FIRST for Exxon.  Not sayin' they aren't perfect… just saying you can find a lot of good things to munch on, once a company the size of Exxon leaves the table. 
     
    Will check on that stupid stuck drill bit tomorrow.  Imagine it's still stuck.  Comes the territory, tho.

  120. 120
    blackgold39 Says:

    re 119 – seeing a lot of that in S TX.  Plenty of prospects for an enterprising private company to latch onto.

  121. 121
    Alhambra Says:

    Italy, was wondering if you (or anyone else) could provide a time frame/milestones/additional color that we should be looking at with Libya going toward the ultimate ending of Qaddafi.  My concern is that when this campaign ends the street knocks oil and our sector.  

  122. 122
    bill Says:

    interesting
     
    http://peoriastation.blogpeoria.com/2010/06/19/crude-oil-moving-by-rail-again/

  123. 123
    Pati Says:

    BOP, I will be on that conference call Friday!  Am always anxious to hear your thoughts and tips.

  124. 124
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Pati — excellent.  Thank you! 
     
    I'll post the info and link to the call in on Thursday, so everybody who wants to can listen (you don't have to tell me… we've got enough to make it worthwhile now… thank you to you Early Acceptors.)

  125. 125
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Good evening…a few stocks to watch tomorrow, HDY coiling into a nice bullish triangle on good vol, seems to be setting up for a possible break higher, I also like HAL here and MMR continues to look like a breakout candidate…charts updated 
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  126. 126
    italyinvestor Says:

    Alhambra – I'm way out of the loop on goals/timelines/effects desired in Libya.  All that said, recently I have been scratching my head.  I'm not sure how long this plays out and continues to interrupt oil operations, but I think the longer it goes on the more infrastructure will be damaged.  Maybe not energy infrastructure specifically, but still things that will need to be rebuilt and will divert attention from resuming normal energy production.  Anyway, my thoughts on a drawn-out scenario follow.  I think the majority of the sophisticated air defense systems are down as well as known high value command and control nodes.  Problem will be conventional ground based air defense systems like ZPU/ZSU systems and manpads like SA-7.  Probability of hitting planes will be low, but it is possible so the air hunt will continue a while longer looking for these targets.  If Mo is smart he'll immediately power down (lock up his tanks and jump in toyotas), go guerrilla and not mass troops and continue to press the rebels using conventional means in the most densely urban areas he can find.  If he does this, there will be little we can do from the air without causing damage to infrastructure.  If the rebels choose to hole up near energy infrastructure, then that infrastructure will be damaged by Mos ground operations and perhaps our air interventions.  The wild card in my opinion is do other regional producing countries move from more passive protests to violent ones in order to provoke or attempt to provoke armed intervention by UN sponsored forces now that a precedent has been set.  

  127. 127
    West Says:

    #72,   Interestingly CXO bought BAS's office building that they were remodeling for their main headquarters in Midland. Everything has gone quiet on the news front for BAS lately, as the price has increased on stronger volume.    CXO has not been the high bidder on 3 recent Permian transaction that they were actively pursuing.  Prices are extremely high on per acre and producing barrel of boe basis and they are nearing inflation adjusted prices reached in the early 1980s before the crash in the Permian Basin.   CXO recently sold their Bakken acreage for over a $ 100 million and are now 100% Permian Basin focused company.   The Permian is a much older basin than the Bakken and a vast majority of the fairway acreage is HBP or currently leased and it is extremely hard to acquire large acreage tracts in the main portions of the play. So as a result the main acreage acquistion play has been to purchase another company or their Permian assets, acquire leases thru the University Land's sales auction (TX), BLM Federal lease auctions (NM) or purchase the HBP leases from the Independents.    With more than 20 productive horizons and growing, throughout the Permian and expotentional  growth in completion technology, the thought is that it is better to capture acreage than services at this point in time.      The Permian remains the # 1 basin for drilling in the US and the Wolfberry play currently has higher EURs and returns over the live of the prospect than the Bakken and 3Forks -on a 8 well B3F1280 acre unit (500K boe/well X 8 = 4mil boe) as compared to 32 Wolfberry vertical wells over the same 1280 acre size (32 X 140k boe/well = 4.48 mil boe on 40 ac spacing and up to 8.9 mil boe on 20 acre spacing).   Estimated cost to drill 8 10k laterals @ $6mil = $48 mil equals 32 verticals @ $1.5 mil/well = $ 48 mil. At the present time Williston Basin crude prices are approximately 10 to 12 $ lower per barrel less than Permian posted on sweet crude & Williston sour is currently $21.60 less than WTI ( Willliston prices did not include transportation fees).  Very nominial trucking charges on Permian oil with available pipeline capacity to most major markets……………………..CXO is the BEST pure Permian Basin play in a large publicly traded company. If RMD is correct and Broad Oak Energy were to become a publicly traded company,  they are in the top 10 companies in the Permian in oil production per day with a very strong Wolfberry program ongoing. There is also the possibility that they get married…………………………………………………………………………………………GPOR continues to be my #1 pick of all E&P companies. Started researching this company for their Permian exposure.   They already have a successful 20 acre downspacing well in the Wolfberry that had no communication during fraccing and IP equal to a normal Wolfberry well.    In their recent presentation they showed the fairway for the Utica shale play in  eastern Ohio and several wells and locations.   http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDE4NTczfENoaWxkSUQ9NDMxNjIxfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1     . Have not seen much mention but their recent Thailand well could be a huge price catalyst for the stock with initial flow testing coming before the end of April ( 5,000 feet of potentional gas pay,@ $ 7/mcf)….Niobrara wells on the western side of Colorado with as many as 4 wells to be drilled by the end of 2011 and seismic shoot this summer….About 3500 bopd in Louisiana oil production unhedged and bringing LA light ( = Brent price).  They also have tremendous potentional in their Oil Sands properties in Canada.     Buy on any dips, buy before Thai well test, buy some just to have some,  and hold , water and fertilize.

  128. 128
    Dman Says:

    Alhambra #121   I think Libyan production will be offline for quite a while under any scenario.  Historically, once war breaks out in an oil producing country, it doesn't get back online anytime soon. Near term the main threat to crude prices is a global economic stumble, caused by …. high oil prices, Japanese disaster, US not really recovering anyway, China tripping over … take your pick, maybe nothing happens or maybe it all happens at once.   OTOH the mid-east could get a lot worse, spiking crude much higher before crashing the economy as per 2008.
     
    BOP – #112  interesting article. It never occurred to me that the market could be … um… everyone (!!).  I know they are selling it through cigrx.com but are there any other distribution channels?  

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