13
Mar

Wrap – Week Ended 03/11/11

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Comments to be added Sunday afternoon.

6 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 03/11/11”

  1. 1
    crysball Says:

    EGY  goes Domestic. 
    Vaalco Energy  announced  purchase  of  a small [tiny 640 acre]  leasehold  in the Granite Wash,  and plans to drill  a well  in immediate future  [rig  already under contract]. Based  on the wording  of the  news release it  would  suggest  they have an option  for  additional Granite Wash  acreage, subject to the intial well drilling  results.
    Since  the Granite Wash  [to date]  has been  primarily  a Tight  Gas  Sands  play with  ocassional  oil, an  entry  here  would  seem  to conflict  with  EGY's  stated  objective  of   'SHOW  ME  THE OIL'. 
    Q4 CC  midweek   should  reveal  more details.  Stock  moved up 5% on the announcement.
     

  2. 2
    crysball Says:

    Vaalco Granite  Wash   Drilling Plans [Hennepin County]:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/VAALCO-Energy-Acquires-Lease-prnews-2410080500.html?x=0&.v=1

  3. 3
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Crys — pretty BOLD MOVE by Bobby Gerry, eh?  640 acres… just one section.  wow.  Hope there's more to the story than that….

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    Tom  started a short conversation last Friday regarding the 50 day moving average and it's significance to the S&P. I was going through my emails this weekend and found that Wayne Whaley had a post up on the subject of the 50 moving average phenomena. Wayne was the Market Technicians Association's 2010 Charles H Dow Award winner.
    Here's Waynes post on Friday after the close (used with permission) .
     
    When the S&P Crosses Below Its 50DMA for the First Time in Over ? Days
     
    I stumbled into yesterday's 50 Day Moving Average study late in the day and I thought that, given its historical significance, it deserves some additional detail today.  Recall, I had the market 24-4 one quarter after the S&P closed below its 50DMA for the first time in over a quarter.    In the 2011 Bull run, the S&P traded 130 trading days above its 50DMA from Sept 01 until Thursday's (Mar 11) close, the third longest stretch since 1970.   I reran the same scan this morning, looking for all periods since 1970 where the S&P traded above its 50DMA for at least 63 days but I also ranked the results by the number of days above the 50DMA.   The one overt failure of the 28 cases that met my scan conditions from yesterday occurred after only a 66 day run above the 50DMA in September of 1987 and could have easily been eliminated from the results by tightening the constraints.    
     
    S&P Quarterly Performance after a String
      Of 63 Days above the 50DMA is Broken
     
      CASE    DATE   #OFDAYS  QTRSP%
        1   19960110   257     5.85
        2   20070227   149     8.34
        3   20110310   130      ?
        4   19890925   123     0.93
        5   19710517   120    -0.70
        6   19830712   116     2.47
        7   19800929   106     9.30
        8   19720425   100     0.45
        9   20030801    96     7.20
       10   19980526    88    -0.90
       11   19791009    87     2.27
       12   19821215    84    11.93
       13   19990209    79    10.60
       14   19860515    77     5.43
       15   19970815    76     3.06
       16   19760409    74     4.61
       17   20091028    74     4.02
       18   19750722    72    -0.81
       19   20040310    72     1.44
       20   19870413    70     7.71
       21   19910429    70     2.54
       22   19961216    70    10.01
       23   19800305    69     1.48
       24   19860122    69    19.13
       25   20050823    68     3.94
       26   19870904    66   -29.30
       27   19750404    64    16.67
       28   19970319    63    14.28
       29   20060203    63     3.47
     
    If I were looking for a headline grabber, I could have dropped the bottom four cases and proclaimed "In the 24 occasions since 1970, when the S&P traded below its 50DMA for the first time in over 67 days, the S&P never suffered a subsequent 1% quarterly loss."   
     
    Above the 50DMA after One Day Below
     
    The S&P (1304.28) spent only one day below its 50DMA (1301.81).  Of the 28 previous cases that met our Scan 1 conditions above, five of those cases saw the S&P trade back above the 50DMA on the second day.  Those five cases are listed below.
     
    Scan 1 Cases After S&P Trades Above 50DMA on the Second Day
     
                     #OFDAYS    FORWARD S&P PERFORMANCE
      CASE    DATE   BELOWMA  1WK     1MT     3MTS    6MTS
        1   19800930   106    4.42    0.66    7.87    7.03
        2   19910430    70    0.52    3.09    3.02    4.69
        3   19961217    70    3.44    6.90    9.60   23.19
        4   19990210    79    1.12    5.17    9.54    4.73
        5   20091029    74    0.05    2.38    0.73   13.19
     
                     AVG%CHG= 1.91    3.64    6.12   10.56
     
    These five cases are great examples of Springboard or Bear Trap Trades, where the S&P trades below key support, runs the breakout stops and then receives a positive push as the Shorts scramble to cover the reversal of the breakout.
     
    http://www.tradersnarrative.com/wayne-whaley-wins-2010-charles-h-dow-award-for-planes-trains-automobiles-4030.html
     
    If you're interested more of this type of quantitative analysis you can sign up for his mailing list at
     
    http://visitor.r20.constantcontact.com/manage/optin/ea?v=001Uea-ywoMgTDJ6QTUIRFl-g%3D%3D
     
     

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Comments regarding a question on Friday and some notes regarding items in wrap table will be included in the Monday post.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    BHP awarded 2nd Gomex Permiit to resume work at deepwater Shenzi project
    http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article248394.ece

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