15
Jan
Wrap – Week End 1/14/11
Strong Start To The Year For Energy Versus The Broader Equity Markets. Energy names have continued to show across the board strength from the Majors, to E&P (both the gassy and the oily varieties) to the Oil Service names. This comes with no real push from the commodities themselves but perhaps oil price resilience is all that's needed at this point to support the group and not further near term strength which would, based on domestic demand and inventories, seem to be unjustified at this time. We're more comfortable with oil retreating into the mid to low $80s than we are with it making a move back to triple digits (again, near term) because as I often say, the hangover for the energy groups, once oil caroms off $100 that first time, will be worse than the party on the way up was great. In short, it will push me to lighten up a bit whereas a gradual move would leave me more content to ride out any 5 to 15% market based retracements. In the ZLT portfolios, year to date performance has been heavily influenced by stout moves in a number of single digit midgets including SSN (which has been running on increased interest in the Niobrara activities of larger participants in the play) and by strength from our core Bakken player holdings. We slightly increased our low exposure to gassier E&P's late last year and those are starting to wake up as well.
Other Stuff: We wrote a couple of short book reports on TPLM this week and added positions in the name twice to the ZLT as a new baby Bakken play. See those posts here under the Jan 11 and Jan 12 news headlines.
Holdings Watch:
Closed trades this past week:
- CXPO – Sold a minor amount of CXPO out of the ZLT, up 31% to my average cost, to rebalance the position and raise a little cash. As I've stated before, this is not one I'm in love with and while it has near term catalysts in front of it the stock has had a better than expected run of late.
- SSN - sold a small amount from the core position to fund entry in another name in the ZLT A portofolio. Sold for $1.75, up 130%.
ZLT A (Taxable Account) Performance:
- YTD 2011 Performance: up 22%. (S&P +2.8%, XLE 3.3%)
- Currently holds 7 positions, essentially fully invested.
- This is an equity only account that does not trade on margin.
- 2010 Performance: up 75%. (S&P +13%, XLE +20%)
- Since Inception (7/1/08); up 78%. (S&P -1%, XLE -20%)
ZLT B (Non-Taxable Account) Performance:
- YTD 2011 Performance: up 18%.
- Currently holds 7 equity positions, essentially fully invested.
- This is an equity only account that does not trade on margin.
- 2010 Performance: up 132%.
- Since Inception (9/1/8); up 608%. (S&P +2%, XLE -5%)
The ZLT C is a four stock, fully invested, small, non-taxable portfolio (two of them actually as they are new ESA's for the interns) and is up 5% since its inception date of 12/29/10.
A few notes on the Zman Long Term (ZLT) portfolio. The portfolios comprising the ZLT contain a total of 20 different energy, primarily E&P, equity positions. I generally like to hold between 15 and 20 names and will be weeding out a few of these positions over the first six months of 2011. Average holding times are in excess of 9 months. Returns are inclusive of transactions fees and dividends are reinvestment. Returns are actual, not modeled, and they are mine as I do not manage money for others.
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The Wrap Table:
Re: Weather sinks Colombia coal barge, more problems seen: OT
While no lumps of coal have yet been found washed up on Columbia's pristine beaches, a team of oceanic researchers from BOEMR, on an expedition funded by the EPA, has discovered a giant underwater plume of coal hundreds of feet thick and covering thousands of square miles near the ocean bottom extending along the Pacific coast of Panama and possibly headed for the United States. When it was pointed out that the coal barge sank on the Caribbean side of Panama, Lead Researcher, Dr. Gimmie A. Grant, said, "That just points out how widespread this environmental disaster really is. More research is definitely needed."
This News Release provided by Dr. Gimmie A Grant who recently left BOEMR to join BOTNC [Boot on the Neck Crowd] on Pennsylvania Ave]. She further stated ' My ability to OBSTRUCT' GOM permintting at BOEMR appeared to be waning, and needed a new challenge. Since it is a scientifically established fact Oceanic bacteria do't seem to dissolve coal [well not nearly as fast as oil] thought this would make a good 'HYPE'……..as have discovered how I can make coal dumped from a capsized barge multiply by millions of times by merely suggesting it is so……….this sure beats 'global warming'!!!!!
January 15th, 2011 at 10:59 amFUTURE BP NEWS RELEASE…….or the Tony & Vlad show
January 15th, 2011 at 11:53 amTony Hayward, architect of the Rosneft/BP Arctic Exploration Deal announced Anna Chapman, recently 'persona non grata' of the USA, would be joining the BP Board of Directors since Rosneft was now a significant BP shareholder.
Vlad [you know who] , a prominent politician, added, while Anna is young, her experiece in the Oil & Gas business is extensive, as she 'pumped' her own BP gas while residing in the USA ………..at least I was told she was 'pumping' gas. …as he smiled & winked. We are glad BP has chosen to recognize Anna and look forward to her contribution to our new Rosmeft/BP Arctic venture.
When Tony was questioned if this appointment was like 'poking a stick in the eye' of BOEMR and Barack, he replied with a smile, and said he hopes to expand Anna's knowlege of 'pumpung' so she can be appointed to the Alyeska Pipeline , as BP and Rosneft have plans to build a pipeline accross the the Bering Stait and tap into the Alyeska Pipeline since the USA seems not to want BP's Alaskan Oil, and China sure does.
Tony & Vlad jointly statedEnergy dependence upon foreign Oil seems to be a new mission of BOEMR and the Obama Administration……….we just 'WANT TO HELP THEM OUT'.
1С-Битрикс: Управление сайтом or Future Rosneft Press Release
January 15th, 2011 at 12:14 pmTony Hawyward is on an extended visit with Mikhail Khaordovosky [formerly of Yukos] in Siberia . Tony says he loves the Russian Arctic Winters, and plans to prospect new discoveriesi n Siberia with Mikhail Khaordovosky , Tony added,, this new BP/Rosneft Arctic venture is so much more fun than the TNK/BP venture on the Sakhalien Peninsula., but he was unable to explain why BP'S Rosneft shares had mysteriously fallen to 1 Ruble and been purchased by Russian Entrpreneur Anna Chapman.
Z,
January 15th, 2011 at 12:43 pmYes it is true……. used to write comedy skits for 'Second City' in Chicago to help pay my way through Graduate 'B' School in the 1960's, but you cannot beat reality…….and the BOTNC is already beginning to 'WHINE' about BP /Rosneft deal. Please excuse this cut & paste from an actual Yahoo News Release today
‘Bolshoi Petroleum’
The deal [Rosneft/BP share exchange] may hurt BP’s efforts in the U.S. to restore its reputation. Representative Edward Markey called for a review of the transaction by the state department and the Committee on Foreign Investment.
“This acquisition will almost certainly complicate the politics of levying and collecting damages from BP following their Gulf of Mexico oil spill,” Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, said in a statement on his website. “BP once stood for British Petroleum. With this deal, it now stands for Bolshoi Petroleum.”
IMHO, Am beginning to wonder if it;s something in the water the BOTNC and their congressional lackies drink.
STUXNET…………….fascintating Background in Weekend NYT
January 16th, 2011 at 10:12 pmIf you don't believe in conspiracy theory, the long and very detailed article in the NYT Weekend edition may change your mind………..it builds a meticulously detailed case for the the involvement of the National Lab in Idaho, Siemens, US Dep't of Homeland Security, The Israeli Dimon Nuclear weapons/Reactor facility and traces it back to a 62 page paper published at an open meeting in Chicago several years ago.
Fascinating reading
The Israeli Dimon facility is where the US & Israel tested out the software on Uranium Hexafluoride Cenrifuge networks they modeled to duplicate the Iranian facility.
They article also dissects the STUXNET WORM whch has many levels of complexity and time delays and even false health messages to signal to the safety routines in the Siemens PL7 controllers that everyything is fine………….while it actually sends overspeed and unerspeed signals to the centrifuge motor controllers so the centrifuges will self destruct,……..and block diagrams of how they spread the STUXNET WORM…………and tailored it to the Iranian reactor site computer archtecture.
Truth is stranger than fiction by a long shot, thanks Crys.
Playing with the interns today and I hope you all are enjoying the holiday. I've received a few emailed in questions over th e weekend and will address them in the weekend mailbag watch in tomorrow's post.
January 17th, 2011 at 11:42 amsaw quote on SSN cross this morning at $2.04….yippee
January 18th, 2011 at 8:15 amPost will be out around 8:40 am EST.
January 18th, 2011 at 8:17 amMMR at support @ 16 in pre-mkt…thanks BOP for pointing out the likelihood of a dip today
January 18th, 2011 at 8:19 amhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2011/01/18/Stock_Composite
read the MMR press release…looks as though BOP's warning very accurate…not enough information on the deep stuff yet available, it appears, to keep people from selling….will be interesting call this morning at 10:00 eastern
January 18th, 2011 at 8:33 am