29
Nov
Monday Morning – Calm Before The Data and News Storm
Market Sentiment Watch: Busy week ahead. On the economic data front we get lots of data starting Tuesday and culminating in non-farm Payrolls for the month of November at week's end. As far as today goes, Black Friday looks to have been a bit of a mixed bag, with sales estimated to have risen 0.3% according to Shoppertrak, still resulting in a new sales record but expectations may have been higher. In Europe, Ireland took a $112.5 B bailout ... we have to wait and see if this calms market fears that Ireland's troubled bank issues will reach Spain and Portugal. In politics a number of tax credit items are on the discussion but probably not the chopping block as congress begins a lame duck session before the holidays. In foreign affairs we have war games in new North Korea that could results in a second round of cross border fire. In energy land we get natural gas supply figures later today (month of September and I'm looking for flattish numbers) and we have two energy conferences this week that should provide impetus for increased news flow following last week's near hibernation in the sector.
Housekeeping Watch: We have migrated to our new server and are continuing to tweak a few items. Thanks for the feedback over the last several days, very helpful.
The Week Ahead:
- Monday 11/29: No economic data release scheduled,
- Tuesday 11/30: Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago PMI (F = 59.8%), Consumer Confidence (F = 52), Canaccord Energy Conference, EIA natural gas supply
- Wednesday 12/1: EIA Oil Inventory Report, ADP Employment, Productivity (F = 2.3%), ISM (F = 56.8%), Car sales (F = 12.2 mm), Beige Book, Jefferies Energy Conference
- Thursday 12/2: EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report, Jobless claims (F = 425,000), pending home sales
- Friday 12/3: Non-farm payrolls (F = 165,000), unemployment rate (9.6%), ISN non-manufacturing (F = 55%), factory orders (F = -0.6%)
In Today’s Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Crack Spread Update
- Stuff We Care About Today
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch:
- ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):
- $5,100
- 99% Cash
- Yesterday’s Trades:
- None.
- ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
- $8,400
- 4% Cash
- Yesterday’s Trades:
- None
- None
Commodity Watch
Crude oil closed up 2% last week at $83.76 despite the first report from the EIA on inventories that looked overtly bearish. One week does not a new trend make but if we see a continuation of anemic gasoline and especially distillate demand I would think that another test of the $80 mark is in order. This morning crude is trading about $0.65.
- Mexico Watch: Mexico had 2 of their big 3 Gulf of Mexico side oil export points offline part of last week due to rough weather. Look for a dip in imports in this weeks numbers after last week's surge.
- Iraq Watch: The consortium led by Exxon in Iraq's West Qurna Phase 1 project plan to boost production from a current ~ 235,000 bopd to 750,000 bopd in 3 years through water floods and workovers. One has to start wondering when the OPEC 12 make a move to rope Iraq back into the quota covered countries.
Natural gas closed at $4.40 on Friday after EIA reported the first storage withdrawal of the season. We are range bound and my sense is we are closer to the upper end of the near term range than the bottom. Storage is likely to skirt along record levels for this time of year for the next couple of months. We get the gas supply figures later today for the month of September and I expect flattish results with the prior month ... not much of an inspiration for bulls. This morning gas is trading up 6 cents.
- Weather:
- Last week was the coldest of the year so far at 156 gas-consumption-weighted heating degree days vs 131 in the prior week (which produced the 6 Bcf withdrawal last Thursday).
- This week's forecast calls for HDDs to move up to 171, normal for this time of year.
Stuff We Care About Today
Not much on the Energy news front today but that should change as the week progresses and companies speak at 2 conferences.
Other Stuff
- Reuters Poll on Chinese Coal Demand
- A survey of 10 analysts put Chinese coal import growth will be 29% in 2010
- Slowing to 13% in 2011 or 151 mm tons in 2011. The increase is coming both from steel demand and from generation.
- ZComment: my thinking here is that BTU will continue to be a standout in the seaborne coal market and I will be moving to diversify the ZLT to include it as a core position next year but will be reworking my own coal thoughts framework before I jump and looking for a pullback in what has been a strong group. WLT probably will be in there as well.
- A survey of 10 analysts put Chinese coal import growth will be 29% in 2010
- APC Announces Another African Offshore Find
- Mozambique - 550 net feet of gas pay (would have been better to be oil but this is large), at depth of 13,850' with a planned TD of 15,900'.
- This is the 3rd offshore African discovery in as many weeks and the stock has yet to budge.
- TGA Guides 2011
- mid point of range is 33% production growth, with potential upside from one project that has not yet received government approvals.
- I'll be working this one up soon.
- mid point of range is 33% production growth, with potential upside from one project that has not yet received government approvals.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- GLNR - cut to Hold at Dalhman
- LGCY - coverage resumed at Stifel with Buy rating and $30 pt.
- RDC - Barclays raises to Overweight
- FRO - Deutsche Bank downgrades to Hold, target $34
robry with a -22
November 29th, 2010 at 8:47 amno news from mmr
aubrey of chk building up efs position– 200 m
November 29th, 2010 at 8:53 amhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-29/antares-energy-reports-200-million-sale-of-assets-to-chesapeake.html?cmpid=yhoo
Good morning! And Happy Week After Thanksgiving.
November 29th, 2010 at 8:53 amWill check around on MMR's logging run today. Maybe there is some scuttlebutt to be gleaned. If there were no problems with the run, it seems to me that results should be announced soon.
GST — I see that the court approved Gastar's "don't worry about that, it's not material" litigation settlement of $21.15mm. The only good news (other than it's behind us now) is that I guess you have to subtract that number from GST's total available liquidity, in estimating the cost/acre of it's recent Marcellus purchase. That makes the max $/acre paid even lower.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:01 amSheesh. NO litigation these days is "frivolous and inconsequential." GST may have been right, but obviously they were willing to hand over a pile o' cash to get out of the grips of the lawyers.
more details
November 29th, 2010 at 9:03 amantares might be agood buy on this
http://www.gtp.com.au/antaresenergy/inewsfiles/2010%2011%2029%20Yellow%20Rose%20and%20Bluebonnet%20Release.pdf
Re 1 Thanks on the robry. Re MMR – not surprised to not have news, deep wells always take longer than you think. Big "ifs" involved in getting the tool to work at pressure and temp here, even if it is slightly cooler than in their last wellbore.
Thanks BOP and good to have you at the first meeting of the SDM roundtable this weekend. Thanks to RMD for hosting. If you couldn't make the meeting just think AREX, AREX, AREX, KOG, EXXI, MMR, AREX, AREX, SSN, AREX.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:05 am>the first meeting of the SDM roundtable this weekend
November 29th, 2010 at 9:09 amWhats this? Did i miss a party
Bill thanks for 5, funny, not showing up on my news screen under CHK today. Thoughts a) pretty pricey for EFS acreage vs some other recently announced buys (great job by Antares to lay recent EFS sale stats out for us) but not surprised that CHK would pay up for it, b) it will feed analysts' complaints about CHK not being able to reduce spending and Aubrey never seeing an acre he didn't like, and c) item b will b offset by the thought that this is part of CHK's get oily sooner rather than later plan.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:10 amMadison Williams Market Monitor (linked here with permission)
November 29th, 2010 at 9:10 amhttp://library.constantcontact.com/download/get/file/CMM%2011.29.2010.pdf
z — thanks for setting it up. Clearly, being part of the SDM Group requires lots and lots of libations. 😉
November 29th, 2010 at 9:12 amSince AREX is not a SDM, but has less than 500MM market cap, is there another category that would suit – SCE (small cap energy)?
November 29th, 2010 at 9:13 amre 7 – BOP wandered through our town over the weekend, RMD served wine and turkey sandwiches. re 11, no its just that RMD is a natural born rule breaker.
Another little comment from Madison Wms worth repeating this morning….
November 29th, 2010 at 9:15 amLand Drilling- ND Rig count avg 151 in Oct up from 143 in Sept and now avg 159 for the mo of Nov. Great for the Pressure Pumpers HAL SLB NBR/SWSI and CPX.
Thanks for including TGA….2011 forecast is +9.5% above Canaccord Sept report which had $C12 target…believe it has since been raised to $C19….don't have newer report.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:18 amINVESTOR PRESENTATION – CANACCORD GENUITY GLOBAL ENERGY CONFERENCE
Mr. Clarkson will make a presentation on the Company at the Canaccord Genuity Global Energy Conference in Miami, Florida on November 30, 2010 at 3:20 PM Eastern Time (1:20 PM Mountain Time). Investors may register directly for the live web cast at: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/canaccord3/.
Links to the webcast of Mr. Clarkson's presentation will also be provided on TransGlobe's Web site at http://www.trans-globe.com.
Front and Center Watch:
Catalysts this week:
BEXP – speaks at two conferences, timing is right for one of those to see an operations update. Looking for the results of their 3rd well in their first downspacing pilot (Brad Olson wells) as well as 3 or 4 more Rough Rider wells. I don't expect any news out of their Montana wells but probably a nod that 2 of them have now spud. The downspacing is more important than the ongoing string of high IP wells at the moment as they can begin to solidify a new target for wells per unit.
WLL – time for L&C update with wells in the fairway between the disco well and the stepout wells. Also a near twinning of the discovery well but with more stages and I think a longer lateral. Positive news there could take this one to new highs. Actually that goes for BEXP above as well.
CXPO – due for some mid Bossier results.
…
November 29th, 2010 at 9:22 amMP – no, thank you for bringing it in here. I have been completely asleep at the wheel on the name. I plan on being on that presentation and will begin to work it up after having started then stopped after it ran.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:24 amLYB…..ETRADE flash says Citigroup starts Lyondell at BUY…anybody have target price? thanks.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:26 amlong Mar 25calls here.
NBL on the tape with gas discovered in the first zone of Leviathon (Israel).
November 29th, 2010 at 9:26 amre 17 – I have it as Dalhman Rose initiation, Buy, pt $38.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:27 amWeird soft open for all the flattish futures headlines that were streaming across just prior to the bell. Volumes look pretty light out of the gate.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:34 amKOG taking the opportunity to inch on towards $5 while the market is busy worrying over all the things in the opening paragraph.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:37 amBakkens doing pretty good job of ignoring the broader market. Could be one of those days where we see Europe close and the US lift some.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:39 amMMR — "no news" is being taken as "bad news." We shall see, of course. But we are due some operational updates from JimBob… and delay of news is not received well in the e&p/well-watching biz.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:41 amPEMEX is reported to have closed 3 to 4 gas fields in N. Mexioc due to drug cartel vilence:
November 29th, 2010 at 9:43 amhttp://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/mexican-drug-violence-threatens-u.s.-energy-supply-edmonds-says-535655.html?tickers=USO,OIL,XLE,BP,EWW,COP,OXY&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
re 20 fair mkt value for dow pre-opening was +43 last futures quote i saw before open was -26 signifying mkt open -69
November 29th, 2010 at 9:45 amCrys – thanks, had not seen but suspected. Mexico has in the last 10 years, built up gas fired power generation near the border, first importing gas from the US and then supplanting that with new gas production in the north. It's a small slice of US demand but it looks like it will be creeping up. Unless they close the power plants too.
Thanks Andy – I must have had some stale quotes on my system.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:51 amBOP link in 9 did not open?
November 29th, 2010 at 10:13 amRMD – are you familiar with Puerto Chiquito field, I think AREX is there?
November 29th, 2010 at 10:15 amRMD — try this one… if it doesn't work, perhaps it needs to be "cookie-enabled" or something. Let me know…
November 29th, 2010 at 10:19 amhttp://library.constantcontact.com/download/get/file/CMM%2011.29.2010.pdf
#29 — never mind. The link doesn't work when pasted here. Will see if I can get that rectified.
November 29th, 2010 at 10:20 amPresident holding a press conf to announce federal employee pay freeze.
November 29th, 2010 at 10:31 amRAJA notes a Bureau of Ocean Energy Mgt notice to leaseholdersacce;eraing and reinforcing plug-and abandon regs in GOM. Calculates last 10 yr. actual P&A abandonment rate @~45 yr. well life vs. their real-life well life est. of 10 yr. While enforcement will need more teeth, see spending on P&A increasing30-150% over next few yrs, first effect by '12. DVR, TTI, GLBL,SPN
November 29th, 2010 at 10:37 am28. yes, and am rel. up to date.
November 29th, 2010 at 10:40 amGreat. Has AREX drilled there yet. If so, are they verticals, I assume they went through the Mancos/Niobrara, any shows? Who else has drilled that particular field?
November 29th, 2010 at 10:42 amre 32. – thanks, makes sense. EXXI probably to be relatively unaffected as their P&A liability is small now. Some others, like SGY could really get stung. Nothing like having the game change mid course over something that's about as related to what happened as is the price of tea in China.
November 29th, 2010 at 10:44 amRMD – to your emailed question, yes, see email
November 29th, 2010 at 10:48 amGetting on a call for about 45 minutes.
November 29th, 2010 at 10:56 amSomewhere along the line I picked up WRES. Is this company on your radar? Or anyone's?
November 29th, 2010 at 11:24 amhttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-buys-217-billion-in-treasurys-bonds-stay-up-2010-11-29
November 29th, 2010 at 11:35 amFed buying TBonds
Cargo -still on call, but no I sold it quite awhile back. I watch it only passively at the moment, though the stock has improved with oil prices and their thoughts to increase activity.
November 29th, 2010 at 11:42 amZ – – Targa Resources Corp doing IPO shortly, tentative pricing $19-$21. Warburg Pincus selling about 40% of their holdings. Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Citi, Barclays, B of A in syndicate. Have you looked at filing? If so, any thoughts? Tks.
November 29th, 2010 at 11:46 amIsle – thanks, not yet, plan to. Do you have a rough date for the IPO yet?
November 29th, 2010 at 11:48 amYes choices… that was the first POMO of the day… we have another one potentially 3 times as large (6-8 billion) coming up at 1:15 today. All totaled there will be nearly $40bln in POMO's this week alone….. and based on the price action of the market lately… I think we'll need it just to stay even.
November 29th, 2010 at 11:52 amIt's nice of Obama to announce Pay Freeze's of gov't employees at the ALL TIME HIGH. Well…. at least its a start.
Name of issuer
Targa Resources Corp
Industry
Energy – Oil & Gas
Security type
Common Stock
Expected size of offering
13,750,000 Shares
Expected price range
$19.00 to $21.00 per share
Offering type
Initial Public Offering
Distribution by
Selling stockholders
Expected pricing date
12/06/2010
Indication of Interest Period
11/29/2010 to 12/03/2010 by (4pm EST)
November 29th, 2010 at 11:57 amOK, back now. Been watching the market putter about.
November 29th, 2010 at 11:58 amPut in as a table. Sorry it didn't come out that way…….
November 29th, 2010 at 11:58 amTarga Pricing expected on 12/6
November 29th, 2010 at 11:59 amIsle – no problem. Apologies, but I won't be reviewing as that is a midstream/LNG play…not my thing.
November 29th, 2010 at 12:00 pmIG — agreed. The pay freeze is actually an attempt to prevent anyone from moving toward the same sort of pay CUTS that the private sector has had to go through over the last two years. I would have liked my pay to have been frozen at its high point too…. guess I shoulda gone to work for the Gub-mint.
November 29th, 2010 at 12:00 pmre 49 = LOL
November 29th, 2010 at 12:01 pmInteresting take on another approach to the banksters.
November 29th, 2010 at 12:08 pmhttp://www.economist.com/node/17583123?story_id=17583123&fsrc=rss
Frankly, I thought the Budget Commission had proposed an across-the-board pay CUT of 10%… so, "freezing pay" at the all-time high is just another payoff to the Gub-Mint Unions… imho.
November 29th, 2010 at 12:10 pmbop- do you really work for pay? or get paid from what you earn?
November 29th, 2010 at 12:23 pmshipping panel today
November 29th, 2010 at 12:25 pmhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Costamare-Danaos-Corporation-iw-502679607.html?x=0&.v=1
Z: I did not notice anything re RIG for its move today. Don't have BOP's good teddy bear cam at any good place. You see anything?
November 29th, 2010 at 12:36 pmTom – Nope, could be oil but then I don't get that move either. And why the disassociation of it with the group? I did see an RDC upgrade, maybe something in that note.
Sorry to be quiet, juggling a lot of balls at the moment on the tech side.
November 29th, 2010 at 12:38 pmcargo — #53… ha! Personal question, eh? Right now, I run wild and eat what I kill. But I used to live in a cage at a fancy zoo… where the daily rations were substantial. One can get fat and find a type of happiness, when caged and well-fed. But it does tend to kill the animal spirits and ambitions. Kind of like working for the Gub-Mint.
November 29th, 2010 at 12:43 pmStill… in time of turmoil, it would have been SWEET to have had MY PAY "frozen" at its all time high. If American voters can't see through this BS, then we get what we deserve.
Tom – could also be BP related, not HAL also bouncing.
November 29th, 2010 at 12:56 pm#57-Last sentence, BOP-that is exactly the point-the American voters cannot see through the BS, regardless how high the pile is and how pungent the odor is-we are getting exactly the government we deserve-unfortunately, I do not see anything changing because the electorate has been completely dumbed down and the oligarchy is in control-
November 29th, 2010 at 12:56 pmsorry, again I violated my 2011 resolution.
re: 57 Winston Churchill once said…and I'm paraphrasing "if you want to lose faith in democracy have a five minute conversation with the avg. voter"
November 29th, 2010 at 1:03 pmthe system is what it is…and people are what they are
CXPO up 3% on no news and what I'd call OK volume for it. Catalysts in the near term are on the catalyst list but to save time there are two middle Bossier wells that could prompt a news release any day now. This may be a buy the rumor sell the news event as I would not expect either of those to be gangbuster wells (more just a credibility thing although they obviously would help cash flow and the process of these guys turning the corner on their production growth). So if it pops into the news I am more inclined to sell (again, depending on the rates of the wells and other commentary in the release which should give color on timing of the Eagle Ford test (around year end)).
November 29th, 2010 at 1:07 pmeia data out
November 29th, 2010 at 1:08 pmchoices — it's a quiet day, so I'm going to do a little more of my OT stuff.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:12 pmSaw a great show on Nova (i think it was) about the domestication of the pet dog. Dogs are directly related to wolves, but you can NOT domesticate a wolf. No matter how much you "nuture" it. Domestication takes generations and generations of selective breeding. The Russians have been doing an incredible study on domestication, using foxes. Study started in the 1950s, so they have something like 50 generations of foxes, bred to be domestic. The difference between the domesticated foxes and foxes in near-by pens is night and day… both behavior-wise (aggression) AND physical trait-wise (cuter facial coloring, curly, shorter tails, stubbier faces). Anyway, to make a long story shorter, the more "domesticated" the animal becomes, the more "childlike" their behavior. Basically, being domesticated means the animal never has to grow up and develop Adult Characteristics (like taking care of itself). So, the more domesticated the animal, the more it depends on its Master to feed and protect it.
It is pretty interesting to think about how this might pertain to humans. We seem less grown up (parents dressing and acting like kids, not vice versa) and our obsession about someone "keeping us safe"… even though the Real World isn't safe. We are dealing less and less with "adult" characterics as we become more and more "domesticated" (think "metro-sexual male"). Anyway, this might not be a bad trend… except that it's not going in at the same pace in all parts of this world. As we become more and more like lap dogs, other places are breeding more and more wolves. This will end poorly for the lap dogs, me thinks.
If you get a chance to watch the show, it's quite interesting. They didn't make the comparisons to man, that was my own extrapolation. But we are all part of the Animal Kingdom, aren't we…
re 1520 – thanks, looking now.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:13 pmBOP – I agree with 63. There are a lot of pure bred human wolves over here – lots. But then again I'm on the govt payroll as well.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:22 pmSeptember EIA in a nutshell:
Lower 48 Gas production was up 0.4 Bcfgpd from August to 62.2 Bcfgpd, not great. Flat TX, OK, NM, WY, down Gulf but up in other states (Marcellus, Fayetteville most likely culprits but EIA still not breaking out the new rising star production states – probably takes them a couple more years to break out PA and WV and maybe AR and CO). I'll have the slide show out tomorrow but for now I'd call this gas price bearish as I had seen some Street comments looking for a rollover here … I think a roll is premature given the drilling we've seen, the public company results ytd, and the giant backlog of wells that have been drilled but not yet completed in the rush to hold acreage pre lease expiry.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:23 pmAREX – can I get a technical read there?
November 29th, 2010 at 1:25 pmItaly — good point. However, "Govt Payroll" and "Military Payroll" are not interchangeable words to me. I would never consider a TSA Agent to be on the same level with our Military Personnel. Much less, the same mindset. Thank you for protecting us. Even wolf packs need to be able to sleep at night.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:28 pmReef's Ultimate SDM, LEI, is having a nice go of it today. Guess M&A activity in the EFS is berry berry good for little LEI.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:30 pmLEI — news out!
November 29th, 2010 at 1:34 pmLEI = another homer for Reef!
November 29th, 2010 at 1:36 pmbop-I take it you think Americans are more like lap dogs. And yet our violent crime rates lead the world, developed and otherwise. Ditto personal gun ownership. And the percentage of our GDP directed towards the means of destruction leads as well, even as we decrease investment in the means of production. And how many other countries are involved in 2 wars simultaneously at this moment? With an all volunteer military. lap dogs?
November 29th, 2010 at 1:36 pmre AREX…Looking
November 29th, 2010 at 1:39 pmLEI – up 31%, probably what's dragging little CXPO up 5%, I'd think MHR would rally here as well.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:40 pmLEI- Has direct offset leasehold to Denali. See marathon deal…
November 29th, 2010 at 1:40 pmNOG holding near its highs post secondary, they speak at Canaccord tomorrow.
LEI news should probably float GST higher too.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:42 pmcargo — You generalized my thesis too much, if you will. My point is that too many voters are lap dogs and assume the rest of the world is too. Not all Americans are Lap Dogs, and not all Lap Dogs are bad. But when a Lap Dog meets a Wolf, you can be pretty assured what the outcome is. The point is, to approach reality with open eyes. We can't send in a pack of lap dogs to fight wolves. And we can't expect wolves to become lap dogs. Nature just isn't like that.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:43 pmReef — LEI PR says they calculate NAV atr $6/share. What is your current thinking??
November 29th, 2010 at 1:44 pmWay to go, Reef!!
Denali coming public soon?
November 29th, 2010 at 1:45 pmRE63 Lap dogs – no. I feel pretty good to be here with our government – with the good and the bad.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:46 pmItaly-agree with BOP-you are not on Govt payroll-you are earning your military pay in spades regardless whatever one thinks of our current situation-you and your troopers salute and carry out the mission-try that with the bureaucrats and political hacks in DC.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:47 pmCargo, you make some good points, seems that over-generalization about all Americans is not totally accurate but we do have lap dogs, e.g. the political hacks come to mind.
Saw a note where some Hispanics are going to start a Tequila Party to balance the Tea Party.
It is indeed a slow day!
I think Denali exits via sale of assets rather than public. Lei- $6 bucks is pretty agressive…
November 29th, 2010 at 1:49 pmram — The USA is still the Best Place in the World to be. Agree 1,000%
November 29th, 2010 at 1:49 pmGST- I can now find eight reals players including CHK in courthouses in Leon, Madison, Grimes county for EF/Woodbine. Now paying $500 1/4 royalty
November 29th, 2010 at 1:52 pmReef — the best ways (purest exposure) to play those counties are GST and LEI, is that correct?
November 29th, 2010 at 1:53 pmReef – thanks much, nice work re LEI.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:54 pmNatural gas down 4.5%, simply too much production and too much in storage. It's going to be a bumpy but range bound winter.
November 29th, 2010 at 1:58 pmLEI- Wilson and Gonzales GST is Leon
November 29th, 2010 at 2:12 pmsomeone is liking CPE today also.
November 29th, 2010 at 2:15 pmReef – much further south and you enter the gas window, cartoons I've seen have it crossing the top of Bee County. Which explains the not too distant away CXPO run today (even though they have little in the way of acreage to run with there). Do you have any other little names that would benefit more close by?
http://geology.com/county-map/texas.shtml
November 29th, 2010 at 2:16 pmGuru – please check your email.
November 29th, 2010 at 2:18 pmAREX
Consolidating in a $1 range between $18 and $19 after September's breakout.
A break of 19 suggests a short term upside test of $20.38 and a target of $22.73 before major resistance.
Nearby support at $18 with major support at $15.53
See Chart http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/11/29/AREX_Daily
See chart http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/11/29/AREX_2
Check out the AREX_2 chart. Seldom see a low volume stock that marches to such an orderly beat.
November 29th, 2010 at 2:26 pmMuch appreciated Zorg, will go look at that link.
Something lighting a fire under S&P/XLE
November 29th, 2010 at 2:28 pmre 92. Link 2 above looks like it's waiting on a catalyst. Will be adding them to the Catalyst List at next update.
November 29th, 2010 at 2:30 pmWith this little rally off the lows in the S&P and oil up above $85, WLL has turned and is within a hair of taking out the highs, just in time for an operations update. CFPS estimates continue to drift up here.
November 29th, 2010 at 2:42 pm94 = a bit like being on the "Approved List".
November 29th, 2010 at 2:44 pmre 96 – I'm not so arrogant as to have come up with a name like that. I did think about a member's tout list though. Reef – for GST, LEI and others, you for AREX at a minimum, Eli is in there with a hand grenade or two, MP for TGA … probably would be a long list. Hmm, maybe a max of 3 per player.
November 29th, 2010 at 2:46 pmGST getting some volume
November 29th, 2010 at 2:54 pmLately, all it takes for our market to turn around… is for Europe's market to close.
November 29th, 2010 at 2:57 pmThanks again Reef, just saw the MRO deal
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article237970.ece
WLL through $110, new cycle high.
KOG – nice volume
November 29th, 2010 at 2:59 pmKOG December $5 calls awake.
November 29th, 2010 at 3:02 pmS&P green.
November 29th, 2010 at 3:18 pm#101 – Z – do you have any thoughts on the timing of updates from KOG vs 12/18 expiration?
November 29th, 2010 at 3:22 pmThe more I look at today's natural gas supply data the more I think sub $4 in the very near term. Unless we get protracted cold this will be a very real problem for the gassy names. Note that most gassy names are very lightly hedged for 2011. Notable exception is HK.
November 29th, 2010 at 3:24 pmre 103. I doubt it but you never know. They have a bank line redetermination that should be out soon. They could drop a couple of wells in with that and give us an update but the timing on those wells may be too tight. I think they have production on one well since the last update was out, not sure if any others are producing yet. Weather has been disadvantageous for completions up there the last few weeks I understand … so things get more costly and slow down.
November 29th, 2010 at 3:26 pmEXXI and MMR seemed to be tied at the hip with an anchor. Could this be an offshore penalty box?
November 29th, 2010 at 3:37 pmI think people wanted news there today…. it never comes out as quickly as people would like. Schiller should have struck a more cautious tone on the log comment on that conference call last week. Other offshores are treading higher.
November 29th, 2010 at 3:40 pmEXXI speaks at Jefco Dec 1, might be able to talk then, would need to see a MMR press release at the same time.
November 29th, 2010 at 3:41 pmYes, makes sense. Thank you.
November 29th, 2010 at 3:41 pmKOG — someone musta sighted completion rigs on site….
November 29th, 2010 at 3:44 pmKOG = wow. Also, WLL, BEXP, NOG, OAS all pushing towards or at new highs.
VYOG – I'm not planning on playing but it looks like it wants to run.
Need to take another look at CRED and CXO who are Bakken small but otherwise interesting.
November 29th, 2010 at 3:46 pm#105 – thanks. making at run at $5 as we speak.
November 29th, 2010 at 3:51 pmdecent interest in those KOG $5s today as well
November 29th, 2010 at 3:53 pmbeerthirty
November 29th, 2010 at 3:57 pmEXXI on the tape with cash tender for 16% second lien juniors.
November 29th, 2010 at 3:58 pmRe 115 – Is that good or bad?
November 29th, 2010 at 3:59 pmHi All: Actually a pretty decent two sided market in EXIXF cvts today. 299 to 299.50, 2m by 2m.
November 29th, 2010 at 4:00 pmReef, what wonderful news on LEI. You PPRTF +28% not too shabby today either.
I'd be calling the main squeeze (that would be the wife in my case) and asking what the dinner plans ought be.
eli- Everytime I call the Chief I get another tax deduction…I got six young traders already!
November 29th, 2010 at 4:02 pmre 118. LOLOLOL. Any thoughts re 90?
November 29th, 2010 at 4:03 pmTender = Treasuries +50bps. That is pretty heavy-handed… and therefore pretty typical of EXXI's decisions on their balance sheet.
November 29th, 2010 at 4:03 pmThose notes had to go, however. They are 2nd liens and therefore restrict access to bank capital. No suprise. Just a heavy hand.
Let's just say that I am WAY more impressed with Schiller's ability to buy and develop hard assets… than I am with Griffin's oversite of the financing. Yin and Yang, if you will. (Or — better yet — Savant and Idiot.)
re 116 – I'd put it in the slightly positive to non-event category. Good to get rid of the 16% but not sure what they paid yet.
EGY on the tape with an update, will have in the morning post.
Hee hee….reef, it's time to fill out the outfield
November 29th, 2010 at 4:05 pmEGY – I have note calling for South Tchibala well expected to come on this quarter at about 2,000 boepd, on the tape at 3,800 bopd.
November 29th, 2010 at 4:09 pm90- not pure enough…
November 29th, 2010 at 4:11 pmOhio keeps popping up:
November 29th, 2010 at 4:20 pmCNX announced a Utica shale discovery in Eastern Ohio. The vertical well encountered 200’ of Utica at a depth of 8,450’
and produced 1.5 MMcf/d unstimulated. CNX will drill a horizontal well from the same wellpad.
re 124 – yeah, me either.
November 29th, 2010 at 4:27 pmUtica – MHR rumored to be there with a deal
November 29th, 2010 at 4:33 pmOAS – tape buys 10,000 acres
November 29th, 2010 at 4:34 pmOAS from briefing:
OAS Oasis Petroleum announces acquisition of approximately 10,000 acres in the Williston Basin for total consideration for the transaction was $30 mln (24.92 +0.32)
November 29th, 2010 at 4:36 pmCo announces that on November 24, 2010, the Company signed a Purchase and Sale Agreement to acquire approximately 10,000 net acres of land primarily in Richland County, Montana and approximately 200 barrels of oil equivalent per day of current production. Total consideration for the transaction was $30.0 million ($26.5 mln of cash and approximately $3.5 million of assets). The acreage is 95% held by production and is primarily operated. As operator in this area, Oasis expects to drill and complete future wells consistent with completion practices used in other operated areas, and expects Estimated Ultimate Recoveries within its current ranges published for West Williston.
EGY~3800 BOPD Flow on S. Tchibala Dev. Well
November 29th, 2010 at 8:51 pmCan't seem to access the Q3 CC, but according to my notes 3,800 BOPD is above any expected flow rate for the S. Tchibala well.
We are also within 4 weeks of 2 more catalyst events:
~Flowrate on the Etame 7-H well, which is currently being tied back to the FPSO with new flow lines and a subsea completion…..Vaaco had earlier projected a flowrate of 3,200 BOPD (NET
(net after deducting the 800 BOPD from ETame-1V which will be shut down when Etame 7-H is bought on line as the Etame-1V has a high water cut and is waxed up)…………note they will also take a signinficant bump in proven reserves as the Etame-7H reeservoir proved to be much larger than expected. Note Etame07H is an OHGP completion
November 29th, 2010 at 8:57 pm~Outcome of drilling the Omangou Vertical Well exploration prospect (which should finish prior to the end of December.
Crys – I wrote down 2,000 bopd expected for that well.
November 29th, 2010 at 8:58 pmFrosting on the Vaalco Cake before year end would be an announcement on the selection of partner for Blockk 5 Angola…….however, Vaalco likes to meter out the amount of Good News in a controlled way……….so don't expect this announcement until the end ofQ1. 2011 ..at which time they will have competed the Etame evaluation study and have a firmer estimate of 2011 CAPEX, and Angola Drilling Plan timing [likely 2 Semisub Vertical Exploration wells in Q4 2011].
November 29th, 2010 at 9:05 pmZ 2,000 BOPD for S. Tchibala is what I have in my notes.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:07 pmre 134 – right, thanks, so they blew the doors off the expectation.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:08 pmZ – #97 we don't want BOP limited to only 3 ideas 🙂
November 29th, 2010 at 9:26 pmBOP – very interesting point about domestication. We've had a long period of peace and prosperity, where you can get away with being a lapdog. But the current cycle is clearly headed in a much darker direction and there are wolves aplenty in this world. However I think the wolves of most concern to US citizens are those who say, with a straight face, that you should meekly accept being groped (and your teenage daughter too) just for the right to get on a plane. Lets pretend for a moment that this actually increases safety (the red teams have shown that it doesn't, it's still easy to get things onto planes). But lets pretend that hiring minimum-wage gorillas to go on a grope-fest actually improves safety. Then why not take it further and be even safer? Subject every passenger to a cavity search. That may sound crazy but the current idiocy would have sounded impossibly crazy a few years ago.
Having created a society of obedient lap-dogs, the wolves in charge of all this think that it is now too late to be honest and say, "you know what, complete safety doesn't exist. If a terrorist appears on your plane, you need to take him down".
Sad really, considering that the passengers on the 4th plane on Sept. 11 already figured that out for themselves.
Oh and BTW, I'd like to see a complete list of all the senior government (WH and congressional) personnel who are conveniently excused from the gropefest.
re 136 – good point re BOP. Didn't read the OT stuff as I'm jammed at the moment.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:29 pmOK – I did see the word gropefest and so had to read the last sentence. Funny.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:30 pmDman — if it wasn't so NOT FUNNY, I would be laughing at your post… do not get me started on the TSA. It represents EVERYTHING that is just wrong (and wrong-headed) about our government. Saw the title to an op-ep piece today (didn't read, but the title summed it up nicely)… "Treating Terrorists Like Americans… and Americans Like Terrorists." If we don't stand up to the complete idiocrasy of this, I don't know what we WILL stand up against.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:35 pmNo. Complete safety does not exist. And it certainly does not co-exist with freedom and free choice.
BOP – FYI, I sent that guy a nice note with questions attached.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:36 pmz — i think that is one we should follow up on. Perhaps after they get cranked up, you can get them to do a conf call with your members. Just a thought….
November 29th, 2010 at 9:39 pm#136 continued…
November 29th, 2010 at 9:41 pmWhen you consider that the father of the panties-bomber actually told the USG well in advance that his son was dangerous, in the hope that he would be stopped *before* he did anything, but that the USG didn't even bother to take this warning seriously, it becomes clear that whatever the purpose of the ever-growing security state is, keeping people safe has little to do with it. Keeping people scared would be more like it. Ruling through fear is an ancient practice, which the US constitution was written to prevent. But a piece of paper can only work for so long if the citizenry are reduced to asking "Daddy" to "please keep us safe".
re 141. Agreed.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:45 pmDman — BINGO.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:45 pmAnd "YIPES!!"
"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is a government large enough to take everything you've got." Or something to that affect.
Z – can you update the ZIM spreadsheet? Or am I missing something? I've been away for a bit.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:47 pmDman – will do for the morning. Currently holding 3 sets of MMR calls, 1 set of EXXI, 2 KOG positions, and 2 WLLs.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:56 pmJust to complete the loop… here is the PBS Nova show about dogs. Fascinating! (I am sure it will air again, sometime.)
November 29th, 2010 at 9:58 pmhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/nature/dogs-decoded.html
BOP – I have to admit that I'm coming around more and more to a libertarian viewpoint. For example I find that Doug Casey makes a lot of really smart observations about a lot of things. But then he goes ahead an advocates anarchy (literally) and I think, well, he may have a lot of smart observations but he's also a bit crazy. I don't have a convenient solution to this fundamental problem of the human condition. No really, I don't! I would tell you if I did, honest. But I am perturbed at the increasing tendency for ordinary people to "do what they are told" by people who look and behave like thugs, and I'm sure this is a bad thing.
November 29th, 2010 at 9:58 pm#147 thanks. I need all the help I can get decoding my dog's thoughts… although she seems to read mine without effort 🙂
November 29th, 2010 at 10:00 pmDman #149 — that is precisely one of the main points about the show. Your dog knows you… much better than you know your dog. Not "new news" to any dog owner, i would guess.
November 29th, 2010 at 10:05 pmAnd not all Libertarians are nuts. Just most of the ones who actually run for office. (sadly)
Dman — BTW, welcome back!
November 29th, 2010 at 10:06 pmThanks BOP. Some funnies for you:
Classy:
November 29th, 2010 at 10:43 pmhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KucnZVKZfKQ&feature=player_embedded
Not so classy, but funny:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=118_1290452447
OK, "not so classy" was a bit of an understatement. Funny, but in a sort of cringe-worthy way.
November 29th, 2010 at 10:57 pm152 and you don't have to speak the language to understand.
November 29th, 2010 at 11:08 pmlearn from here
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December 25th, 2015 at 9:09 am