24
Nov

Wednesday – Lots of data but the rest of the week will be sleepy

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Market Sentiment Watch: Going to be a slow trading day today but we may get a small bounce as the Korea's didn't escalate things overnight. We got a raft of economic data this morning that on the whole looked fairly positive (better jobs and income numbers, partially offset by worse than expected durable goods) and we get consumer sentiment and new home sales after the open. We also get both the oil and natural gas inventories today. Otherwise, all is quiet in energy land. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • Jobless claims came in at 407,000 vs 435,00 expected
  • Personal incomes came in at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected
  • Consumer spending came in at 0.4  vs 0.4% expected
  • Durable goods for October were down 3.3% vs down 0.2% expected
  • We get consumer sentiment at 9:55 am EST, expectations are 69.8
  • We get new home sales for October at 10 am EST, forecast is 310,000

Housekeeping Watch:

We are planning to migrate to the new server on Friday. The weekend wrap post will be here and on the backup server as will the Monday post. Please bookmark the backup site just in case:

www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - 
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – RAME, SSN
  4. Odds & Ends

Holdings WatchZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,100
  • 99% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $8,300
  • 5% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • MMR – Added (10) more MMR $18 December calls for $0.64, on the mid, with the stock at $16.40. Expecting news on their ultra deep activities within the next week or two. 
    • WLL – Added (5) more WLL December $115 calls for $1.45, on the mid, with the stock at $108.40. Expecting news here in the next week to 10 days. 

Commodity Watch: 

Crude oil eased $0.49 to close at $81.25 yesterday, fending off most of the declines that the equity market suffered due to North Korean belligerence. After the close, the API released a bearish looking report (see below). This morning crude is trading up 50 cents.

  • API Watch:
    • Crude: UP 5.2 mm barrels
    • Gasoline: DOWN 0.499 mm barrels
    • Distillates: DOWN 0.311 mm barrels

  • Street Estimates

ZComment:  The bearish looking crude inventory build is likely the result of an offset to two weeks of larger than life withdrawals and an overdue short term bounce in imports. Not much of a concern there. I would expect smallish draws as the estimates above do as well on both products as refinery utilization kicked back up after two months of slumber in the Fall maintenance season and that should result in higher production this week. 

Natural gas closed essentially flat at $4.26 yesterday. We get the natural gas inventory report today at 12 pm EST. This morning gas is trading off slightly.

Natural Gas Storage: Street is looking for a 2 BCF withdrawal for today's report.

  • Last Week:  3 Bcf Injection
  • Last Year: 5 Bcf Injection
  • 5 Year Average: 32 Bcf Withdrawal
  • 10 year Hi: 30 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Low: 148 Bcf Withdrawal

Stuff We Care About Today

RAME Snapshot


Highlights:

  • Asset Sale:

    • Selling properties in the northern Barnett Shale for $43.75 mm to pay down debt
    • With the sale goes 26.4 Bcfe of reserves, 13% of total from year end 2009
  • Effect on Debt
    • This takes debt down to $203 mm 
    • And cuts the quarterly interest payment by about $1 mm per quarter which is significant when your EBITDA to Interest coverage ratio is barely 2x. 
  • Areas:  (following the divestiture)
    • Osage shallow oil exploration (north central Oklahoma)
      • 53,000 net acres
      • Vertical oil play (Mississippi Chat formation), acquiring 3D now
      • First well tested 80 Bopd (these are relatively cheap verticals)
      • Several more wells were being testing as of early November
      • Results here could move the name
    • Appalachia - West Virginia, doesn't seem to be a focus area. 
    • South Texas - Starr County, further south than you want to be to talk Eagle Ford
  • Stock has been moving off the lows due to the aforementioned asset sale and a Rodman upgrade. 

Nutshell: Lots of debt but they are working the problem and their latest presentation demonstrates that with a focus on debt reduction and their historic interest expense. I don't know much yet about the Mississippi Chat formation. The stock trades at a discount to trail cash flow due to the high debt and the fact that production is stagnant.  No clear opinion yet but am working on one. 

Other Stuff

SSN Announces Delays

  • SSN announced that it's two latest Bakken wells will not be completed on schedule (they were already delayed and late again) due to an inability to get a frac crew on site. 
  • They are attempting to get half a dedicated crew by December. I have my doubts it will happen that quickly
  • This is a not a non-event in that it delays cash flow but it's also beyond their control and not something you can really fault a minnow for. 
  • Getting more common to see this in the Bakken and will get even more common into early 2011 for the little names as the rig count moves north of 160. 


Odds & Ends 

Analyst Watch:

  • None

155 Responses to “Wednesday – Lots of data but the rest of the week will be sleepy”

  1. 1
    bill Says:

    robry has injections at 0+ and -8 next week
    http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2234&mn=331099&pt=msg&mid=9799016
    yoy now at a deficit

  2. 2
    bill Says:

    cargo 84 yesterday
    Nothing in particular- Nm seems stuck in a trading range of 5 to 6. They dropped down 2 capes to NMM for 177 m. They bought them in the 60's
    So this will help q4 profits of nm and help liquidity as 162 m of the purchase price was paid in cash
    for a total f $177.0 million, payable in the form of $162.0 million in cash and 788,370 common units in Navios Partners.

  3. 3
    bill Says:

    bp should get a rebate
     
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Whale-researcher-surprised-by-apf-1248095741.html?x=0&.v=1

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Thanks bill, forecasted temps have been falling here all week, going into the 20s this weekend which is considered a pretty good cold snap here this time of year. Looking at the broader weather map it looks colder now for this week than it did a week ago as well. We need an early bit of cold to offset the slow transition from injections to withdrawals we have had. 

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Futures seem to be keying on jobless claims and ignoring durable goods. Seeing some pretty strong opening indications in the Bakkens who really didn't pay much attention to HES second land grab in the last 6 months. NOG looking open in all time high territory. 

  6. 6
    tomdavis12 Says:

    crysball: The final numbers on the NOG Reverse Conv are $22.2 & knock in $17.76.

  7. 7
    irongate Says:

    on that Haynesville shale special on CNBS last nite???  I guess the moreal of the story is to ALWAYS get mineral rights when you buy land.  Other than that.. not damaging at all to shale drilling.

    Also… they mentioned a large shale that sits 500 feet on top of haynesville… does anyone know the name of that. (sorry to appear so dumb)

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    That's the Bossier. 

    Watched Haynesville last night and while I don't often get choked up during a show, that did it. Wonder what the IRR on 1.27 mm up front and $13 mm per year for 25 years is on 200 acres of swamp land. 

  9. 9
    crysball Says:

    Z, BOP
    Curious if the  GOM  infrastructure  EXXI  is acquiring   from XOM   will facilitate  the production  startup   of  the  MMR/ EXXI   shallow water/ultradeep  wells?  i.e.  reuduce Capex requied, reduce time required, as  this was  not  discussed  in the  conference call.
    Also  curious  if  EXXI/MMR  is  picking  up  any of  the XOM  personnel associcated  with  the   XOM  GOM  asset   acquistion.??,,,,,,,,, as  this was  not  discussed  in the  conference call.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    And if you want to watch the opposite of Haynesville, you could check out the highly misleading and irritating Gasland but please don't pay them to see it, find a free copy on the net. 

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Crys – I would not think so. Further offshore and not designed to handle 50 MMcfgpd+ wells. The cost is going to be in the high specification equipment needed to handle that pressure. 

    The benefits of taking in XOM infrastructure is that you will not have to add pipeline or processing capacity as you exploit and explore on the properties. XOM is notorious for overbuilding. So you will have spare capacity when you recomplete in zones uphole to waning existing production and when you drill additional fault blocks in some of these plays. 

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    Took all night to hit the first target from yesterday 1185-86 and then overnight highs came within a tick of the extended target of 1190.
    Looking (maybe wishing)  for a retest of the overnight highs and if we can get through 1192.50 a an upside target of 1196.50 with an extended target of 1199
     
     

  13. 13
    irongate Says:

    thanks zman… i dont get hbo (whihc is where i think gasland plays)….   i will have to check it out on the net.   I kinda expected the Haynesville to be similar…  was glad that it wasn't.

  14. 14
    crysball Says:

    tomdavis12
    Thanks for the  NOG  Reverse Conv.  info,  after  reading the  the  prospectus, and  weighing the   potential  volatility  in the coming 90 days [expect  some  swings  due to  the  income  tax provisions   pending  in congress]  decided  the  downside  risk  was  not favorable  on the knock.
    Appreciate  the input of all on this blog  on rev. conv's..,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Rev. Conv's.  are not  like  'stealing  candy from a baby'.

  15. 15
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Thank you for RAME.  Looking forward to further information when you can.  I threw the name out about 18 months ago and it was not seen favorable because of debt issues.  Accumulated regardless because that's the only way I can play options in my 401k (like KOG, SSN, etc.).  Still long and plan on keeping until I change my name :).

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zork, appreciate the read. 

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    re 15. Doing a little snooping. They could do a better job of laying out their current plans but at least they get the whole "it's the debt stupid" concept. Looking for data on the Miss Chat now and also looking at what is they are doing along the TX/OK border and in S. Tx. Oh yeah and in Appalachia. May build a model but probably not. I do recall these guys being hypey in the GMXR sense of the word … that's worked out real well for both of them, lol. 

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Investor Relations etiquette:

    1) don't report earnings just before the open and then have a call 30 minutes later. Much better to report after the close the previous day or early, early that morning.

    2) don't report operational items just before a holiday or on a Friday (unless you want those items to be ignored)

    With 2 in mind I expect news out of MMR/EXXI, WLL, and CXPO next week.  I also expect a mid week to the following week update out of BEXP.  

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    JB / Zorg – if you get a chance, comments on KOG would be appreciated in a next few weeks sense. It looks like a flag breakout to me with $5 as a target near term. 

  20. 20
    Zorgnak Says:

    A failure here at overnight highs suggests more chop and a seeing a low at 1179.

  21. 21
    irongate Says:

    OT- me and BOP were talkign about TIVO the other day.  we ar ethe glutten's for "binary event" punishment.    Well someone jsut sent me this….  (cant confirm…. but if DISH loses their enbanc… TIVO is worth $20…. expect decision by Feb/Mar)

    Normal
    0

    ECHOSTAR SANCTIONED FOR DESTROYING E-MAILS IN $2.5 BILLION SUIT
     ECHOSTAR'S `EGREGIOUS' ACTS THREATEN $2.5 BILLION COURT DEFENSE
     
     

  22. 22
    Zorgnak Says:

    The Cramer effect on
    WPRT….  up 2.5%

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Zorg – please keep reporting all energy related Cman sitings, even if they only pop half as much as I guessed. 

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Consumer sentiment up more than expected

  25. 25
    West Says:

    Sundance Energy, SDCJF.PK……………… http://www.brr.com.au/event/72155/sundance-energy-raises-174m-to-accelerate-growth-eric-mccrady-cfo

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Sentiment was 71.6.

    New home sales were well light though at 283,000.

  27. 27
    elijahwc Says:

    #25 whatta ya think West.  Pawnee Kansas?

  28. 28
    Zorgnak Says:

    BTW I don't know if anyone noticed but MMR was not in the top 100 holdings at SAC…EXXI was. If it even mattered is beyond me.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Oil numbers in 10 minutes. 

  30. 30
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all.  Need to take out 1201 to get our up cycle into early December.  Below there and we are still open to more downside. 

  31. 31
    Nicky Says:

    Z  – I presume you are not expecting the EIA numbers to be as bearish as the API numbers?

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Nicky – thanks. I think we could be disappointed on the product side. Last week didn't reflect a revival in utilization at the back end of the chain. You saw a lot of crude go in but not a lot more gasoline and distillate come out. If we don't see a snapback in demand that 'll result in smallish product draws or even a small build for gasoline.   I think we still get a good sized draw on crude stocks though. Wildcard being imports of course. 

    And thanks for the read on the market.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Anyone who uses the NDIC subscriber site, can you answer whether their permits database is easily searchable. Right now I have to look at the daily reports. Would be better to search it all at once in a database. Wondering if the sub site allows that. 

    West – thanks re 25. 

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    EIA

    Crude up 1.2 mm barrels – due to much higher imports

    Gasoline up 1.9 mm barrels

    Distillates down 0.5 mm barrels

  35. 35
    Nicky Says:

    Thanks Z.

  36. 36
    Nicky Says:

    Oil is really lagging the broader market and this rally now.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Crude imports surged 1.2  mm bopd week to week

    Demand:

    Gasoline – eased again, to 8829 mbpd

    Distillates – up only slightly

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Nicky – it had a good run before, no reason for it to follow as well as equities in my view, also the dollar put in a short term bottom took some wind out of its sails. 

  39. 39
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    IG — #21 LOL.  Yes… maybe we ARE suckers for binary outcomes… 😉
     
    Anyway, sometimes it's OK to talk a bit OT, if it's super slow… or just before a weekend or holiday.   But your mention of TiVo was just too coincidental y'day. 

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Cushing up another 0.5 mm barrels to 33.6, not critically high but elevated again. If API and EIA match in one thing it is their read on Cushing inventories. Much tighter on it than they have been historically for the last 14 weeks. 

  41. 41
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    FTK — heck of a PICK, eli!

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    BOP – I have a betamax I can ship to you if you like antiquated things that missed huge opportunities. 😉

  43. 43
    cargocult Says:

    Bill-thanks for your periodic shipping updates. I am hanging on to my NM, DSX, and FRO. But it is painful.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Crude over $82 and shrugging off the headline numbers on the inventory report which I have to say, were no better than the underlying data which was pretty poor. Part of the reason for the shoulder shrug to the crude build is imports which won't stay this high for long. The other may be a holiday market that is content to just track the S&P today. If we see gasoline and especially distillate numbers resume bottom of range demand next week I will get even more near term cautious for oil (down to about $75 but still with the thought that we end the year near $90). 

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #42 — trying to decide if that is funny… or not.  Hmmmmmm…. debating now….

  46. 46
    ratberto Says:

    Z – What is your take regarding how tax considerations influence inventories during this time of year?  
    Recent WSJ article:
    "Oil Supplies Dwindle As Year-End Tax Charge Looms"
    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101119-711899.html

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Cargo or anyone – have you seen a good writeup of what is going on in North Korea. All I have seen so far is speculation about a possible coup in progress, a son who wants to show he's tough, etc. All of it so has read like wild guesses put to paper. 

  48. 48
    West Says:

    Eli, With the successful recompletion on their Wattenburg wells  I would look for some of the money to go to this area and some to go to the Pawnee shale. EOG has started drilling in the North Park Basin again and they have one of their larger net acreage positions there in between two of EOG's prospect, lower EURs here probably 200k boe , Nio at about 7k feet so probably still good IRR…..In Kanasas lots of independents with stripper production that can be taken out for the cost of stripper production. Lario has had several good wells there , but hard to tell if that is small structures or capable of being a resource play. ….I keep expecting a JV announcement on their Bull Canyon property that is north of EOG's Jake well and Silo area prospects. ….OK, off to the real world. Everybody have a great Holiday and pause and give thanks for what you have been blessed with in your life…………….

  49. 49
    Zorgnak Says:

    RE 19  On KOG…. Agree with your take on it.
    From the way I look at things
    Composite Volume Profile on KOG shows the recent break on increasing volume. Next upside Target is 5. Very little overhead volume/resistance.
    Near term support is at 4.50
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/11/24/KOG_Composite

    Intraday.
    Delta (bid/ask pressure)dropped off yesterday at 12pm but held at VWAP.
    Delta today weaker than yesterday but positive so far. Appears to be resting.
    Point of Control is 4.69
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/11/24/KOG_Intraday

    Conclusions (Best guess)
    $5 looks in the cards. May have to rest a bit first unless market takes off.Plenty of support below.

    Long KOG

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    re 45 – You can't argue that Tivo missed a huge opportunity. 

    re 46. I get asked that every year. It is always either a non-event or a very short (2 to 3 week) event. 

  51. 51
    elduque Says:

    Z- do you still like SSN for a long term hold?

  52. 52
    elijahwc Says:

    #48 West you are among our many blessings here.  Thank you for the SDCJF road map.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Crude now 82.36 and rising, seems a bit an of an odd reaction but again, it's an odd day/week. 

    Thanks much for the read Zorg, nice. 

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Eld – I am still holding it. I am waiting on them to get their Niobrara play together, for CHK to announce the wells on the acreage SSN sold to them, and for SSN to decide what it wants to do with it's cash. These delays are not central to my thinking, nor is their small Bakken position, at least not until they decide to double it up. 

  55. 55
    elijahwc Says:

    BOP thank you re:FTK comment.  Although I believe it could have quite a future, it sure scares me up here this fast.  Appears to be one of those cult things right now. 

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    CXPO chart looking similar to KOG's 2 days ago, could be a 2 well press release out of them in the next 10 days or so. 

  57. 57
    ratberto Says:

    47 – today's Stratfor article has more questions than answers:
     
    http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101123_north_korea_moving_another_red_line?utm_source=RedUpdate&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=101123&utm_content=readmore&elq=65585fc5d47a4b33b913d79adfa1c6e3

  58. 58
    DrLink Says:

    Z you posted that SSN had reported delays due to it's inability to get frac crews on site. In Canada their are two pollywog service companies that I have sat and watched fly to the MOON and unfortunately never bought….Canyon Services FRC.TO (CYYSF.PK) and Gasfrac Energy Services GFS.V (GSFVF.PK). We all know  fracking and horizontal drilling is going nuts in these shale plays………do you or anybody on the board know of any pollywog fracking service companies in the BAKKEN etc. that might be mimicking the success of these two Canadian companies?  Thanks.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Thanks for that Rat – at least from them its more than idle speculation, appreciate that. 

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    DrL – sorry no, my big names deal with HAL, my little names deal with HAL, my tiny names with they could deal with HAL more frequently. But agree, there must be some names out there. I am mostly an E&P guy so I may or may not know on the Service issues. Jat or anyone? I know that on the calls again this quarter the overwhelming response on sand (or in this case ceramic) was CRR. 

  61. 61
    elijahwc Says:

    DL someone here mentioned CalFrac the other day.  CFWFF.  Thats all that I know about them.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Thanks Eli – adding to that, when you see Frac Tech come public, the guys that took CHK's CFO as their president, know that I'll be getting involved unless the multiples are just ridiculous. CNBC may not think to even mention it but it'll be a heck of a better name than GM. 

    http://www.fractech.net/

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    Oil fire in progress (not really but considering the data this reaction is pretty strong). Oil marching back up to $83. I'll have the charts for oil and natural gas inventories in the Friday post. 

  64. 64
    cargocult Says:

    This is one link to a series of articles on N Korea.
     
    http://www.stratfor.com/theme/conflict_korean_peninsula

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Thanks Cargo, thought you had the line on the geopolitical stuff!

  66. 66
    milepost_43 Says:

    TGA…..+7% on VOL…..nice breakout above resistance of last 12 days…should be easy run to upper BollBand @ 18.5ish….then mid Q update…..wonder if mid-Q will be before Canaccord …..

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    MP – Nice call there. 

    NOG announcing deal completed and overallotment taken. Raised net $200 mm. 

  68. 68
    DrLink Says:

    Thanks, it just seems a logical extension to try to find some service companies that are also benefiting from the current  frac equipment/crew  demand supply imbalance.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    DRL – many are benefiting from it. I own HAL from time to time for it as well as the int'l side. CLB (cores, reservoir analysis, perf guns) is doing very well from it. CRR on the proppant side. The list goes on and on but I can't keep up with all of them so I watch a select list. Wyoming, TEXW, West, Gino could probably give you a half dozen interesting names each beyond the HAL's and BHI's of the world. 

  70. 70
    elijahwc Says:

    #62  You got that one right Z.  Wonder if its too early to put in for the IPO right now?

  71. 71
    ratberto Says:

    Re North Korea
     
    the Grassy Knoll side of me says that we will see flare-ups around the world as long as the START treaty goes unratified.  Russia's ability to keep the Koreans, Iranians, etc. in their cribs is its playing card.  The value of a START treaty to the US is the hope that Russia will keep the wild children in their cribs (and no, hope is not a strategy, but there we are).  As long as there is no START, the Russians will let the little peckerwoods cause trouble.  
    So the deal with the devil is to gut our strategic nuclear arsenal so that we won't have to deal with the wild children directly…
     
    "[W]hen Republican Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona, the GOP's point man on the issue, decided [last] week that the treaty wasn't important enough to be taken up by the lame-duck Congress, it was pretty clear that he was acting not in the interest of the nation but of his party. […] President Obama has called the treaty his top foreign policy priority, a key component in the "reset" of relations with Russia that could pay dividends not only by improving nuclear security but by paving the way to greater cooperation between the two powers in dealing with such hot spots as Iran and Afghanistan." [Los Angeles Times editorial]

  72. 72
    apbd Says:

    Rushing around today, but wanted to find time to wish a Happy Thanksgiving to Z, BOP, and all my wonderful friends.  I don't say much, but I'm usually lurking and learning from all of you.
    Blessyaall,
    apbd

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    APBD – back at ya, have fun with the grandkids!

  74. 74
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    apbd — Gobble-Gobble!!  (Turkey-talk for "thank you very much, dude!")

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    Housekeeping Watch:

    New server on way to server farm now. I'll be testing today and tomorrow and we may go live Friday. There is the possibility that it may take up to 3 days for some of you to see the site as the domain name is repointed to the new server. If you ISP is johnny on the spot with their updates it should be more like 1 hour. But if you see the old site and no one talking on Friday it either means that people are doing better things on a Friday or you are seeing the old site. I will post Friday both here and on the backupsite just in case. Special note for Ram – in the past your ISP has been slow to update. I will post on the backup site for you as long as it takes for you to see the new site (which should look just like this one with a few new bells and whistles added). 

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Gas numbers in 5 minutes

  77. 77
    cargocult Says:

    Korea update-NYT's reports severe food shortages again this year for N Korea.
    “This incident seems to fit the pattern of a Mafia shakedown,” said Tim Peters, a longtime resident in Seoul and head of Helping Hands Korea, an nongovernmental organization that works with North Korean defectors. “It’s a Mafia extortion by the Kim regime. And it has worked for them before: It’s the feed-us-or-we’ll-shoot-you approach. And now with winter coming on, they’re trying to get more food aid.”
    “The regime wants just enough food to keep the population from turning.”

  78. 78
    Zorgnak Says:

    GST perking up

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    6 Bcf Withdrawal

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    NG was down 6 cents at 4.21 pre report

  81. 81
    elduque Says:

    Natural gas futures breaking above a downtrend line that has been in place for a year.

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Zorg – yeah, pretty happy with the SDM's I do own including that one. There seems to be an SDM migration to levels north of 2010's average prices. 

    My plan for the rest of day is to do the oil and gas inventory slide show updates (for Friday release), test the new server, and play with the interns. Probably mostly the later. Intern #1 wants to write the Friday post and she just may get to. 

    I'm here for another hour or so if anyone needs anything and will sign out before I go. If I don't talk to you between now and then have a great Thanksgiving and while I don't give advice do please try to be safe and have fun. Be thankful that you own at least one of the picks from BOP's or Eli's or RMD's or another of the rising stars around here as I am thankful that I own several and that they have found their way here. And be thankful for all the other stuff. I will see you Friday or Monday. 

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Crude making a run on $84 now. 

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    re 82 – who list of folks should be included in that but then it gets just silly (MP, WEST, others). 

    Bumps in production of distillates and gasoline did get through the system leading to the bad product inventory numbers by the way. 

  85. 85
    elijahwc Says:

    FTK: Rocky Mountain High on the "food grade fluids"
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUS100565893620101102

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    SDM That Got Away Award (at least from me) has to go Eli.  MHR chugging higher. I wonder what the puts are priced like, lol. I'm watching and waiting there. 

  87. 87
    Zorgnak Says:

    Upside target on S&P hit at 1196.50..don't see it much past here
    1199 has been rejected the last three attempts.

  88. 88
    Pati Says:

    Eli, just musing — I wonder if FTK is using some derivative of orange oil.  It is a wonderful solvent — I use it for cleaning. 

  89. 89
    RMD Says:

    86 just noticed FTK calls are quite active (though don't know what normal is). 106 of Jan 2.50s last 1.70.

  90. 90
    Zorgnak Says:

    If 1199 is broken to the upside 1201.50 comes into play and as Nikki mentioned, it is a major inflection point.

  91. 91
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Great call on NBL. Guess we both should have been a little warmer toward.

  92. 92
    ram Says:

    Re 75 – Thanks.  You are very kind, too kind.  Nice recovery in EXXI, MMR not so much.  I'm thankful for a lot of things including being here, and being fortunate to take advantage of most of the names mentioned here.  Happy Thanksiving and safe travels to all.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Finishing up a 3 x 6' acrylic seascape with intern #1 and off to kick the ball about. Also just played with the new server for the first time in the new rack space. Someone asked about bandwidth the other day and I'm told this is OC48. I can tell you that it is much faster in test than this site is now. We will make the switch at the close on Friday. I am of no value add today and so will go. Have a great Thanksgiving!

  94. 94
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — we could hear as early as Friday or next Monday from MMR about BlackBeard East …. rumblings have been positive…. so, don't think it will be bad news.  But, fingers crossed.  Well-watching can be a nerve-wracking occupation.

  95. 95
    elijahwc Says:

    Just back from errands.

    #88 Pati "citrus based" and therefore "restaurant grade" although I confess that as hard I've tried I'm yet to find it on any of the local menus.   Finally, Z thanks for the plaudits but I have received much more than I have given here.  In the oft noted words of RMD "here I am doing your homework for you again."  That's what we've got here: a giant study hall.

    Happy Thanksgiving All

  96. 96
    Pati Says:

    A safe and happy Thanksgiving to everyone. 

  97. 97
    RMD Says:

    I am suprized SSN isn't down more. 
    Just added a bit of MMR hoping Jimbob makes me even more Thankful over the weekend.

  98. 98
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RMD — shhhhhh….. so did I…

  99. 99
    Popeye Says:

    Everyone have a safe and happy.

  100. 100
    crysball Says:

    Z,
    For  the new  server  do  you still  recommend   Foxfire?    Have  you tested with Chrome?

  101. 101
    irongate Says:

    MMR getting some volume here in the past 30min…   and price rising against a flat to down tape of er the same 30 minutestape.

  102. 102
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    IG — MMR just filled the gap down, from the other day.  Maybe that is significant…. and maybe it's not.  I'm no TA person!

  103. 103
    Pati Says:

    For those traveling:
    SNL's version of body scanning:



     

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    Crys – It looks good on firefox, chrome, safari … need to look at IE but I'm not a fan of that one. 

  105. 105
    jiveyjr Says:

    Happy Thanksgiving everyone…

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    Have a great one. Turkeythirty. 

  107. 107
    milepost_43 Says:

    Thanks to  ALL for a great site……Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving…..

  108. 108
    West Says:

    KOG……for those that like a little something to think about with their beverage in the evening……………Third week of October,   DVN   releases Nabors rig from Horseshoe Basin Unit # 1 -4H ,nene 4-12n-102w, Sweetwater Co, Wy. No information was released about this test which was a 4000' lateral to test the  BAXTER,  vertical depth here is 10,800'…The rig had been on the well for almost…..   90 DAYS  ….KOG is 25% wi owner and had previously been operator of this prospect. KOG had drilled a exploration well  1/2 mile east of this well back in 2008 and had completed vertical section from 10,450-13,369' ( Frontier/Baxter) for IP of 336 bopd, 3.05 mmcfg and  144 bwpd. This has been considered stranded gas with no nearby gas lines and  uneconomical natural gas price. The well  had total production of 20k bo, 121mmcfg and 2.1k bw..This well looks to have been shut in for the last couple of years. Thought is that KOG was venting gas to produce oil and hauling water  at somewhere in the neighborhood of $ 2 pbow. Where well is considered gas well venting of the gas would only be allowed for a relatively short period of time before being considered a waste of nature resources without compensation to the state of WY for severance tax…………………Since most of the production in this area is gas from Upper Createous and marginally profittable at current prices, this would be a significant event if a resource play could be established for high BTU gas , gas liquids and and oil from the Lower Cretaous for DVN and KOG. It should be noted that if a pipeline connection were brought to the area other  formations could be exploited economically……..compiled from RMOJ articles and notes………….

  109. 109
    RMD Says:

    West, I found this oldiefrom KOG.  SSN is much in the 2008 news about Baxter tests also.
    This excerpt taken from the KOG 8-K filed Jul 3, 2008.
     

    Vermillion Basin—Wyoming
     
    Vermillion Basin drilling activities to further evaluate the Baxter shale at an approximate depth of 10,000 feet to 13,000 feet are scheduled to commence during the third quarter of 2008.  Kodiak’s 2008-2009 Vermillion Basin activities are part of the Vermillion Basin Exploration Agreement entered into with Devon Energy during the first quarter of 2008.  A possible two- to three-rig program is being contemplated by the operator in order to complete drilling prior to winter leasehold stipulations on certain of the federal lands.  Kodiak initially estimates that its share of 2008 capital expenditures in the Vermillion Basin could range from $1 million to $3 million.  Kodiak currently has approximately 41,200 gross and 17,000 net acres under lease and can earn additional interest through existing farm-in agreements.
     
    Initial exploration efforts will be focused on two specific areas: the Horseshoe Basin Unit located on the western edge of Kodiak’s acreage and the Coyote Flats Federal Unit, formerly the Chicken Ranch Unit, located on the northern edge.
     
    Horseshoe Basin Unit
     
    The companies plan to drill two vertical wells and one horizontal well employing redesigned drilling and completion techniques in an effort to minimize reservoir damage and improve production rates.  These wells will further delineate the play’s areal extent as they offset the HB #5-3 well drilled and completed by Kodiak in late 2007.  The Horseshoe Basin Unit comprises approximately 9,300 Kodiak gross acres (4,100 net acres).
     
    Construction of nine miles of pipeline to connect the HB #5-3 well to sales should commence during the third quarter 2008.  There have been some delays in the well connection as the companies are attempting to optimize midstream infrastructure in the Horseshoe Basin Unit for this well and additional wells scheduled to be drilled in the Unit.  Production from the HB #5-3 well is projected to commence during the 4th quarter.
     
    Coyote Flats Federal Unit
     
    On the northern portion of Kodiak’s leasehold, in the recently created Coyote Flats Federal Unit, Devon and Kodiak are planning to drill one vertical well and one horizontal well.  The horizontal well will directly offset the State Federal #4-36 well drilled by Kodiak in 2006.  The State Federal #4-36 had significant gas shows during drilling and the initial completion stages.  However, during the completion work the well encountered significant mechanical problems and the deeper zones were abandoned as casing collapsed and only the upper zones are producing.  Coyote Flats Federal Unit comprises approximately 24,100 Kodiak gross acres (8,400 net).

  110. 110
    RMD Says:

    Poking around SSN's website : they have 4 prospects listed under Sweetwater County, with Baxter seeming all around.

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    […]Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » Wednesday – Lots of data but the rest of the week will be sleepy[…]…

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    Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » Wednesday – Lots of data but the rest of the week will be sleepy

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    Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » Wednesday – Lots of data but the rest of the week will be sleepy

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