22
Nov

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:  Ready, set, get slow. At least that's the usual pattern for this holiday fractured week of the year. But this time we do have a number of potentially market moving big picture items including:

  • Ireland asking for EU aid (there was some question as to when they would as it's three big banks with a problem and not the structure of the country's financial landscape). Worry now turns to whether Spain and Portugal will be close behind in needing aid. 
  • North Korea can't feed its masses but apparently has reached critical mass on a new nuclear facility which should force the U.N's hand as these guys are not obviously set up to export nuclear material to the highest bidder
  • The SEC is getting ready to unveil a massive sting of Wall Street bankers, traders, and analysts. And,
  • BOP made a really nice call on timing and price of EXXI's acquisition of producing Shelf properties from XOM.


The Week Ahead:

  • Monday 11/22: No economic data release scheduled
  • Tuesday 11/23: 3Q GDP Revision (F = 2.4% vs first reading of 2.0%), Existing home sales (F = 4.47mm), FOMC minutes at 2 pm EST
  • Wednesday 11/24: EIA Oil Inventory Report, Jobless claims (F = 430,000), Consumer spending (F = 0.4%), durable goods (F = 0.1%), consumer sentiment (F = 69.7), new home sales (F = 218,000), EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report (12 pm EST). Market open a full day but it will be slow going after the open. 
  • Thursday 11/25:  Markets closed - Happy Thanksgiving.
  • Friday 11/26: No economic data release scheduled. Markets close at 1 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  EXXI property acquisition, APC, WLL
  4. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):
    • $5,000
    • 99% Cash
    • Yesterday’s Trades:
      • None
  • ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
    • $11,500
    • 46% Cash


Commodity Watch 

Crude oil fell 3% last week to close at $81.98 lat Friday. The 12 month strip is trading at $83.61.  We had a successful test of $80 late last week and I would expect crude to hold at least $75 should further weakness befall the equity markets. I continue to think crude will be close to $90 at year end. This morning crude is trading up slightly.

  • China Watch: Product inventories at China's top 2 Majors fell for the 8th straight months (gasoline, diesel, and kerosene). Diesel stocks were off 14.3% from September to October. Demand hit a new record in October. 

Natural gas rose 6% last week to close at $4.16. Typical bottoming action and we remain range bound with short lived spikyness attributable to cold snaps.  This morning gas is trading up 4 cents. 

  • Tropics Watch: Nada

Stuff We Care About Today 

EXXI Nearly Doubles Up; Moves To 3rd Largest Oil Producer On The Shelf 

First Things First Watch:

NICE JOB GOES TO LONG TIME SUBSCRIBER BIRDSOFPREYRCOOL 

The Price:

  • $1.01 B - They're using cash from the balance sheet and getting their revolver bumped in size in accordance with the new reserves to pay for the deal. Look for another secondary down the road but probably at a higher price than here ... $30 maybe. 

The Purchase:

  • 1P Reserves of 49.5 MMBOE

    • (61% oil), 
    • $20.40 / BOE  = pretty good price
    • Reserves are engineered by Netherland Sewell so should be a fairly conservative take
  • 2P Reserves of 66 MMBOE

    • (61% oil),
    • $15.30 BOE
  • Current Production of 20,000 BOEpd

    • (53% oil)
    • $50,500 per flowing barrel per day ... a good price.
  • Leases total 131K net acres

The Impact:

  • Makes EXXI the third largest oil producer (out of all E&Ps and Majors) on the Shelf
  • They'll be operator of 94% of all acquired
  • They get slightly less oily but that's not a big deal and that's day one, before they start working the assets in the direction of their aggregate oiliness. 




Nutshell: A nice price to pay to nearly double up the size of the firm. Buying from a Major ensures they will be getting overbuilt infrastructure and bypassed exploitation and exploration opportunities. Not accidentally, the properties overlap with EXXI's current operations nicely.  At first blush, when compared to the Apache for Mariner acquisition earlier this year this deal appears slightly more pricey However, the Mariner was 53% natural gas, much less liquids rich than this transaction.  Oil prices were also lower then and APA was moving into a whole new theater in the deepwater whereas EXXI knows these properties well already. Lastly, the deal is accretive to the way the market has been valuing EXXI on both reserves and production. If you flip your thinking around and say, "what would EXXI trade at based on its original multiples of reserves and production" you get a post deal share price of $29 and $31 respectively. Won't happen overnight to be sure but I expect that and more as time progresses. And that excludes any thoughts on their ultra-deep program. This is an oversimplification and gives you no benefit of higher production levels spread of cash costs which will undoubtedly be the subject of question on today's conference call along with near term exploitation and long term exploration opportunities on the new properties. I continue to own the shares in the ZLT.  

Conference Call: Today, 9 am EST

 

 

Other Stuff 

  • APC Hits Pay Off Brazil
    • Itauna well encountered > 275 feet of pay
    • At 15,250' on way to 18,000'
    • Stock failed to budge last week after another discovery off Africa but should move on this news. 
  • WLL had a leak at a Bakken well over the weekend. It happens, thankfully there were no injuries and no fire, and is a non-event but it makes the press and might get someone to dump some shares creating and opportunity. Rather doubt it but you never know. 
  • Look for the Mid Cap Orange Charts in the Tuesday post
  • Look for more single digit midgets in the spotlight later this week. 

Odds & Ends 

Analyst Watch:

  • BEXP - BMO upgrades to Market Perform
  • ATW - Wells Fargo cuts to Market Perform
  • MEE - Cut to Market Perform

129 Responses to “Monday Morning”

  1. 1
    bill Says:

    link to exxi call at 9 am
    http://ir.energyxxi.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=88875

  2. 2
    skimo Says:

    Forbes take on EXXI
    http://blogs.forbes.com/christopherhelman/2010/11/21/energy-xxi-doubles-in-size-with-1-billion-exxon-acquisition/?boxes=businesschanneltopstories

  3. 3
    bill Says:

    wondering out loud, does exxi do a secondary to finance half of purchae 20 m share at 25
    alot of demand now for the stock..
    does not make sense to me to lever the balance sheet for a billion in debt

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — thank you for your kind words in the morning blurb!  However… don't like the way the last two bullet points follow each other…  Yikes!  Was only working on industry scuttlebutt… and a large dose of "what makes sense." 
     
    Anyway, very happy with what Schiller is doing.  And doing and doing and doing!  Will continue to be a Happy Holder until proven wrong.  It was a long summer… but EXXI has a nose for value…. and our group here has a stomach for time arbitrage.  Nicely done, all!

  5. 5
    snuhart Says:

    a/o 8:56 EST pre mkt  EXXI  27.00 b   (scottrade)

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Call starting. Re 3, I think closer to $30 but yeah, would expect them to do one.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    EXXI Notes 1:

    Identified 200 projects, with 700 mmboe potential reserves

    Considering corporate transactions going forward, will continue to expand 

  8. 8
    zman Says:

     

    EXXI Notes 2:

    "properties fit like a glove, can't stress enough the synergies"

    100% reserves engineered by Netherland – good to know not part Netherland and part by the company or XOM

    Assets were low reinvestment intensive

    Balance sheet – will update today's post to get to exact numbers

     

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    EXXI Q&A

    Blackbeard East – at 28,500', about to log to that point (picking up tools now), then will drill to TD (originally set for 29,500 but it will go lower)

    Davy Jones 2 – drilling ahead, will set another casing point at 25,000' (they're below 24,000')

    Planning to cut LOE fairly significantly on the XOM properties

    Abandonment liability doesn't kick in much until around 2019

     

  10. 10
    bill Says:

    how long does it take to log blackbeard east?

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    re 10 – assuming they don't get stuck they could be back with news withing a week. 

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    EXXI Q&A

    Mentioning the infrastructure now, talking about big capacity, 180 miles of pipeline, bunkhouse onshore …. basically overbuilt and no need for adding further platforms, pipe capacity. 

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    EXXI Q&A

    Q: EQUITY IS NOT GOING TO BE PART OF THE INCREMENTAL FINANCING?

    A: THAT'S CORRECT. 

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    I'll be adding a ZIM Call position in EXXI near the open. 

  15. 15
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI… No additional equity to be issued with this deal.  Nice!
     
    Accretive acqtn + flowing barrel assets supporting current stock price + significant upside from Ultra-Deep Program = my kind of equity investment. 

  16. 16
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Leverage on the right assets at the right time = highly accretive to equity.  Love it.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    EXXI Q&A

    Schiller making an important point. Netherland Sewell is bound by the existing lease operating expense in calculating reserves. As they take the LOE number down, the reserves on this buy should go up. 

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    EXXI calls opening with massive spreads, being patient but plan to try to split some. 

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #16 is in response to bunch of whoosy analysts worried about "too much debt"…. have to look at the entire balance sheet plus cash flow plus "where we are in the cycle."  This is a nicely accretive deal.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – EXXI

    EXXI – Added (20) December $30 calls for $0.65, on the mid with the stock at about $26. See today's post for news on EXXI's acquisition of a package of Shelf assets. 

  21. 21
    mimster90 Says:

    nice seeking Alpha piece zman.  Thanks BOP for bringing EXXI to my radar screen.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    EXXI Q&A

    There are a couple of large ultradeep targets on this acreage.  Not quite as deep as what they have been targeting in BB and DJ. 

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    EXXI Q&A

    All acreage picked up in this deal is held by production, so no rush to test those 2 ultradeeps or other exploratory prospects.

    Will have a little over $200 mm of liquidity post deal.

    Thanks Mim. Thinking it will move higher post end of this call, market willing. If the market turns green I'd think they make this the star of the day. 

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    WLL off a buck, part market/group action, part valve leak at a Bakken well. Still expecting news here, this week or next out of their Lewis and Clark program. 

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    EXXI Q&A

    G&A from the new barrels is $4 mm (annual), adding less about $0.55 / BOE for LOE. That's versus their roughly just over $1 / BOE.  So a nice drop in cash costs per unit there.  

  26. 26
    ram Says:

    zman – Did EXXI change itself from a small cap to a near term mid cap with this aquisition?

  27. 27
    skimo Says:

    Did I hear Schiller say that the BBE log could be out in the next few days?

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    As if to confirm what I wrote in 11, Schiller's last answer was to confirm they could have a log by Thanksgiving if the tool works correctly.

    Ram – yeah, it's on the cusp of that. 

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    WLL back to green, that was short lived. 

  30. 30
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MMR should get a lift from the BBE comments, me thinks…

  31. 31
    crysball Says:

    Z,
    Can you  'splain'  why   EXXI's redcution in LOE   for the XOM  Gulf properties will  enable  N &S to increase reserves for  the XOM  GOM properties acquired?

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    crys — good question.  If you have 5 apples for sale at $1, but your cost basis on 3 of the apples are 50c cost + 25c overhead and 2 apples are 75c cost + 25c overhead, then only 3 of your apples are booked as "reserves."  But if can lower your overhead to 15c, then your higher cost apples are below $1.00, then you get to book all 5 apples as reserves.

  33. 33
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    does that make sense?

  34. 34
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bot some MMR at 17.40 on BBE comment…

  35. 35
    bill Says:

    27,28,30
    thats  major news on mmr
    Congrats BOP
    I added dec 25 calls on exxi so i just put the jinx in

  36. 36
    bill Says:

    34 did the same

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Re 31. Sure, in the simplest of terms:

    The reserve engineers take into account not just the barrels in place but the economic barrels in place. You have hydrocarbons under the surface you want to extract. You have thoughts on revenues based on commodity prices and thoughts on costs based on the specific assets. There is economic tailing out effect in play. At some point taking another barrel out of the ground just isn't worth it until either the price you receive to do so rises or the cost of doing so falls. If LOE comes down, they can take more out of the same pool than they otherwise would.  

    This is also why when people ask me about Peak oil theory I'm quick to ask what price deck they are talking about as I believe in Peak at Price. Get a high enough oil price and many things are possible. 

  38. 38
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — let's hold hands and sing "kum-by-ya" today… and hope it works.  It should.  That BBE comment was pretty exciting.  Could hear by Wed… πŸ™‚

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    EXXI holding gains well post call, lunch time analyst calls there should be favorable, especially with the dangling catalyst at Blackbeard East which is a nice way of keeping people from thinking about downgrading based on the recent run.

    GST moving higher. 

  40. 40
    bill Says:

    capes have been up 3 days in a row and up again today
     
    http://www.tradewinds.no/drycargo/article571201.ece

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Bakkens Today Watch: (a nontechnical summary)

    BEXP took out its all time high today. 

    NOG holding at it's as well.

    OAS within a hair of it.

    KOG thinking about going for it. 

    WLL – flat on a well leak, news any day now on L&C and $3 off the all time high

    CLR – at $53 and looking technically strong, high there was $83.50 and this is only name in this small group I don't own. 

  42. 42
    choices Says:

    Nice call, BOP

  43. 43
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    thank you, choices.   Those XOM properties were just too tasty for Schiller to pass up.  And he got 'em at a good price… good for XOM and great for EXXI. 

  44. 44
    bill Says:

    bop
     
    you mention you woul dbe happy with a price of 23 boe
     
    was you number all reserves or just proved
     
    they quoted a much lower number

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    my number was for proved only

  46. 46
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    but also didn't think about the fact that exxi has lower overhead on those barrels ('cuz didn't know what the % operated was).  So THAT makes the $/proved even bettern what is calculated by just looking at XOM's P1 reserves.  So, happy-happy with the actqn.

  47. 47
    jiveyjr Says:

    Reef…thx for GST….wotta SDM!!

  48. 48
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    UBS raises their EXXI tgt to $34 from $26 saying after raising $599 mln in equity and preferred proceeds 2 weeks ago, EXXI delivered on its strategy to add value through M&A. Specifically, EXXI achieved a game-changing acquisition by buying 20 MBOE/D and 46.5 MMBOE from Exxon in the Gulf of Mexico Shelf. Firm says the deal will increase production/reserves roughly 77%/65% pro-forma.

  49. 49
    reefguy Says:

    Z- Your site appears to be functioning with its intent, making us all some dough!
     
    Thanks

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    re 48 – thanks, had not seen that.

    re 49. hey thanks for playing, enjoy the show, I'll be here all week. 

  51. 51
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MMR — wonder if Mr. Market is a tad disappointed that EXXI didn't take more of the Ultra-Deep off MMR's hands.  Personally, I'm happy with the current arrangement… but I'm not always in the majority.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    re 51, I think the market is just acting as an anchor this morning. Given the prospect of BBE logs in the next week or two I'm looking at adding to a position added Friday. 

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    or a similar position

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – MMR

    MMR – Added (20) MMR December $20 calls for $0.62, on the mid with the stock at $17.20. Expecting news in the next couple of weeks on one of their ultra deep prospects in the Gulf of Mexico Shelf. 

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    NOG – Canaccord reiterates Buy with $26 PT, cites accelerating acquisition and development program

  56. 56
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JPMo CDS trading desk thinks mrkt goes up after europe closes.  They say that too many people went short the morning on Euro-news.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP – futures were up strongly late, also on the initial sigh of relief that Ireland was taking a deal. Then people started talking about the P and the S in PIGS.

  58. 58
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Yup… "bailouts" are tne New Normal, it seems.  ugh.

  59. 59
    Zorgnak Says:

    Expecting chop here for a while…possible test of 1187 as a low for today.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/11/22/FT71_ES_Composite_2
    And rotation up from there.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/11/22/FT71_ES_Intraday
     

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Housekeeping Watch:

    Please bookmark the backup site:

    http://www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com

    Our migration to self hosting should occur this week.

    Next week you will probably start getting ZBLASTs and other communications from zman@zmansenergybrain.com if all goes according to plan. 

    Lastly, we'll be installing some new billing software on the site, shouldn't cause any hiccups with passwords but for those of you paying by check aside from Tom, APBD, and Wizard, please send us a note regarding your "pay by check status" so that we don't inadvertently turn you off. 

     

  61. 61
    jiveyjr Says:

    I have been watching the battle at 4.55 on KOG all morning…decided I was underweight there so I added 20% at 4.55…WTF; I like the stock and the story

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg, we're in the land of low volume trading at the moment … looks like a pretty uneventful week but I would not be surprised to see us melt higher over the course of it. The powers that be really should consider taking the who day Friday off so I don't have to feel like I need to check in. 

  63. 63
    reefguy Says:

    Passport Potash…PPI.V   penny stock buy today and get a ten bagger by Easter

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the flyby Reef. 

  65. 65
    Zorgnak Says:

    WPRT continues to get a bid in a down market

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    KOG too, looks like a breakout. 

  67. 67
    ram Says:

    Is PPI.V only available in Canada?

  68. 68
    blackgold39 Says:

    re 31:  Recoverable reserves at the end of life will be determined by breakeven cost.  The lower the cost to operate ($/BBL), the lower the rate (and higher the reserves) can go before having to shut the wells in.

  69. 69
    redjack Says:

    re PPI>V…try PPRTF

  70. 70
    ram Says:

    PPRTF is visible.  Thanks.

  71. 71
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: Great work. You and Z are the best. The others here are not bad either. Lots of happy feet today.

  72. 72
    ram Says:

    I joined the MMR parade at 17.05.  I'll hold hands as well.

  73. 73
    ram Says:

    Quite the swing in EXXI.  Thinking of adding more common.

  74. 74
    Zorgnak Says:

    Testing 1187

  75. 75
    ram Says:

    More EXXI at 25.00.  The positive aspect of the news seems to have worn off.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – EXXI

    EXXI – Added (20) more of the $30 December calls for $0.40 with the stock backing off to just under $25 with the market on its lows. 

  77. 77
    Zorgnak Says:

    and then some πŸ™‚

  78. 78
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader saying mrkt sell off corresponds to news coming out about FBI insider raid… so far, two SAC spinoffs announced.

  79. 79
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    i'm outta the office… but HT says it's on CNBC now

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP, I alluded to it in the opener, don't see that having a big bad lasting impact on the markets. 

  81. 81
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Neither did HT… everyone knew about it y'day… but guess it's just the deets coming out.  The 2 SAC funds are 4b and 3b in size.  It's just spooking everyone, i guess.
     
    Hey.  If you're gonna use inside info to make your living in the market, that is cheating AND against the law.  So, not shedding any tears for those guys.  But it does shake up the mrkt.

  82. 82
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Did you see the gist of the BMO upgrade with BEXP?

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Re 82, sorry no, all I saw was the headline, says valuation call. 

  84. 84
    tomdavis12 Says:

    CSFB says oil demand worldwide "sizzling". The Sept numbers for the top 25 countries shows 4.2% YOY growth. Higher than the August 3.6%

  85. 85
    jat Says:

    Guys, something I'm missing on ROSE today?

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Jat – it started early, I looked around for broker comments, don't see a thing but it could be from someone I don't get. 

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    There is some very sloppy trading going on now, MMR down 5%. 

  88. 88
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    wonder if the two funds raided are holders of MMR…

  89. 89
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    One of the funds, Diamondback, holds MMR… but only 16,500 shares… that shouldn't kill MMR… but it might be the perception.   who knows.

  90. 90
    choices Says:

    In the spirit of the Holiday Season:
    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/11/saturday-night-live-spoofs-tsa-patdowns/

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    re 89. Pretty high volume on MMR already. Could be traders thinking its one of the names being looked at. Sure would think that if SAC, who was known to be a smart firm, was doing this on this name that they would have enough for it to matter. 

  92. 92
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    another firm announced… Loch Capital in Boston.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Hope the put those guys on the barbie. Grabbing lunch, back in 30 min.

  94. 94
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #93 — agreed!

  95. 95
    choices Says:

    ROSE:  I have been trying for weeks to determine what is happening with ROSE drilling in Alberta Basis-nothing specific but inferences (rumors) that their drilling results looks very promising-nothing to go on specifically, however, and certainly nothing to jump in in size, particularly after the huge run it has had.
    Old article:
    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203296004575295001334531396.html

  96. 96
    bill Says:

    93
    Im going to reserve judgement until I see details on the charges but my first instinct it's to believe its an over reach by the gov't. Uncle Sam wouldn't do that would they? ask Elliot Spitzer.
    Their zeal one could argue caused 2008 meltdown
    They harassed Greenburg of AIG getting him to resign, new mgt installed, didnt understand underwriting risk, and the rest is history

  97. 97
    choices Says:

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ROSE/1073846068x0x420726/9874CAFA-2CB4-476B-9DD8-03C940F95A0E/111810_KeyBanc_Capital_Markets_Presentation-Houston.pdf
    latest presentation-slide 18 has Alberta Basin info.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Took me awhile to track it down but this is the post that contained the data dump on the Souther Alberta Basin by ROSE on their conference call:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2010/03/01/monday-morning-welcome-to-march/

    There is a lot of data in the post and in the comments that follow it. 

  99. 99
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EXXI 30 min chart updated to refect near term support and resistance….

  100. 100
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Where do you stand with EOG these days? I know you still own. The Bulls say they have great assets, mgmt, cash flow and solid balance sheet. Bears are pointing to lower gross margins, higher PE than normal, lower PEG ratio, Lumpiness and execution difficulties. Is there any other energy blue chip that looks better to you at this time? 

  101. 101
    irongate Says:

    BOP, ZMAN and others…   great stuff on this MMR, EXXI stuff.  been here about a month or so…   this site is far underrated for the amount of expertise and information flow that comes across the blog.   thanks guys.

  102. 102
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EXXI intraday, resistance at $26, support at $25.25

  103. 103
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    IG — agreed!  z has assembled a group that in no way resembles a bunch o' motley fools.  There are some awesome possums on this site…. only wish they would chime in more.  Their collective brain power is measured in mega-wattage and could easily light up the Manhattan Skyline on a cold winter night.

  104. 104
    jiveyjr Says:

    I just reviewed your chart book and voted JB…looks like WLL is poised to breakout again…I know Z says we could have news soon…I'm waiting for some volume and the breakout to pounce heavier there…thx man

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    IG – whoa …. who's underrating my site?! πŸ˜‰

     

    Tom – I own a starter position in EOG. Planning to give it some time. If it drops into the mid $70s I will add more. If it hangs here I will not but will add around tax day as that is when I expect natural gas to start to lift them and others. You know I don't care about PE since this is a CF business. On the any other name question I am warming to NBL. 

    BOP – thanks for 103. 

    I am doing a lot of backoffice junk today so will step out for another 30 minutes or so. 

  106. 106
    choices Says:

    #98, thanks, Z-I've seen references to their test wells as being broker-operated, hence the ability to hold the info "until more fully evaluated" does that sound plausible?

  107. 107
    ram Says:

    zman – Have you seen funds become more willing buyers of E&P when they move from the small cap to the mid cap category?

  108. 108
    VTZ Says:

    Tin Foil Hat Watch – Action in gold still very constructive for those who care or those who added at 1340… all action still related to Euro and Euro issues but those were demonstrated to ultimately be positive for gold in the case of Greece. The same will be true for this bailout and the ones to come will be no different.

  109. 109
    DrLink Says:

    Took a different tack this morning than others, sold the EXXI  Dec 25 puts for $1.40. Figure if they want me to own the stock at $23.60 I'm happy with that. If not, well, nice lunch money…..

  110. 110
    irongate Says:

    Normal
    0

    On the FBI insider-trading probe, sources tell me that DOJ is out to take down a dozen hedge funds, in it's case to shake-up the industry.  http://twitter.com/#!/CGasparino …………one hedgie wrote in response to the gasparino comment "fortunately my performance proves my innocence" 

  111. 111
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    LOLOLOL… "fortunately my performance proves my innocence."  Thanks for the laugh!

  112. 112
    choices Says:

    JB, or Zorg-I've been waiting at the gate forever on ROSE to come back-it does not look like it wants to come back-do you see any point whereby a cautious buy would be in order.
    It has been very stingy on info on Alberta test wells.
    Thanks, JB-will go an vote now.
     

  113. 113
    Zorgnak Says:

    re 112
    I'll take a look

  114. 114
    ram Says:

    zman – What market cap would an E&P have to achieve to move into mid cap territory?  How important was the reverse split for EXXI?  Could KOG also use the reverse split to an advantage?

  115. 115
    Zorgnak Says:

    re 112
    I don't see anything to lean against until it gets back to 32.80 or so, which doesn't appear to be anytime soon.

  116. 116
    zman Says:

    Re 107 – Larger size of TEV and reserves will put them on a few more radars than before.

     

    Re 114. There is not a cut and dry line in the sand on what is a small cap vs mid vs large. I like to break them into $4 B and smaller because more than that in the mid category doesn't graph well given how many names I track.  I do not believe KOG could or would use a reverse split. They have they have no reason to as those are usually used to keep the stock on an exchange in terms of price. Obviously there is no impact on market cap. And 9 out of 10 reverse splits end with the shares collapsing back towards the pre split price. It wouldn't necessarily happen here because the reason for that collapse back event is a function of the types of companies (and their balance sheets) that engage in that action. KOG just isn't one of those kind of names. I think doing a reverse who damage them in the sense of market liquidity and would be viewed as an odd move, some might say, a cheesy one. 

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    JB – thanks for your hard work on the charts. Thanks to Zorg for the chart commentary as well. 

    WLL looking at $110

    NOG at 22.68, not too shabby post secondary, lol. 

    OAS and KOG and BEXP all moving well as well. 

  118. 118
    ram Says:

    zman – Have you seen what is the drag on MMR?

  119. 119
    Zorgnak Says:

    1199 HOD?

  120. 120
    ram Says:

    Both MMR and EXXI seems to be anchored to something.

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    beerthirty

  122. 122
    ram Says:

    Thanks.

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Circling back to 106. I had not heard that. I had heard they might just not submit the data to the state and pay the small fine later. Happens quite a bit. Not sure it would be the case here or not but it is possible. 

  124. 124
    RMD Says:

    Eli, the FTK roadshow must be well received! I'm in awe.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    NOG trading at $23 right at the close. 

  126. 126
    Pati Says:

    I heard FTK roadshow tomorrow at 7:30am at NYSE.

  127. 127
    RMD Says:

    I think they have many mettings.

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    HES makes $1 B buy of Bakken acreage from price TRZ Energy LLC. Never a truly dull day … details tomorrow. 

  129. 129
    online Casino korean Says:

    online Casino korean

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