16
Nov

Tuesday Pause

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Market Sentiment Watch: Yesterday = yawn. Today = time for a pause. The potential for rate hikes in China and a bailout in Ireland are front and center for markets this morning. Asia was off as much as 4% overnight while Ireland continues to insist it doesn't need a bailout. Partially offsetting the international gloom, WMT reported OK results and boosted its outlook.  For some reason the GM deal keeps getting upsized and this seems to be dragging TSLA high


Ecodata Watch:

  • PPI came in at 0.4 vs a forecast of 0.8%, with core coming in at -0.6% vs a forecast of 0.1%,
  • Industrial production is due at 9:15 am EST, forecast is 0.2%,
  • Homebuilder's index is due at 10 am EST, forecast is 16


In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Crack Spread Update
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Large Cap E&P Orange Charts, NFX/EOG, 
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):
    • $5,000
    • 99% Cash
    • Yesterday’s Trades:
      • None
  • ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
    • $8,300
    • 35% Cash
    • Yesterday’s Trades:
      • None

Commodity Watch 

Crude oil eased two pennies to close at $84.86 yesterday. This morning crude is trading off a buck in a commodity unfriendly tape. 

  • Early Read on Oil Inventories:
    • Crude: DOWN 350,000 barrels
    • Gasoline: DOWN 1.0 mm barrels
    • Distillates: DOWN 2.0 mm barrels
  • MEND Watch: Rebels claim to have attacked an Exxon facility in the Niger Delta and to have taken 7 hostages. Rebel activity is starting to mount again. 

Natural gas drifted up $0.05 to close at $3.85 yesterday. This morning gas is trading flat. 

  • Early Early Read on Natural Gas Storage:  The Street is looking for a 12 Bcf injection this week. This should be the last injection of the season ... two weeks after the season is normally at an end which is not uncommon but problematic given the absolute high level of storage with which we are beginning the withdrawal season. 
  • Tropics Watch: Still something brewing down by Honduras

Stuff We Care About Today

The Large Cap Orange Charts - Notes follow the graphs

Notes to the graphs: SE = self explanatory 

  • A) SE
  • B) All above 10 now as long lived reserves from the shale plays dominate reserves, nothing really stands out and I'd note that the relationship of long reserves to high P/CF isn't holding water these days, skip on down to graph H&I and look at CHK to see what I mean. Note that most of these reserve numbers are very stale at this point as we are working with year end 2009 reserves except for with CHK who updates their numbers quarterly now. 
  • C) & D) The large caps are getting oilier but it takes them longer to make the switch. Except for SWN who isn't trying. 
  • E, F, H, I) -  valuations to forward EBITDA and or cash flow per share are not expensive but not cheap in most cases either. CHK stands out at the Rodney Dangerfield of forward multiples.   Note SWN holding the upper band, this is not uncommon but also a function of their lack of hedges that has beaten the 2011 denominators. 
  • G) Again CHK looks cheap on proved reserves, not to mention reserve potential. Note that ECA is a close second in many of these cases. Also note that valuation appears more than full at SWN. Part of that is their lower cost structure making cheap gas prices less of a threat to them than others. 
  • J) Note that relevant as the year is almost up. I will update these again when I can flesh out guidance for most of the names. Right now EOG is looking at low double digit growth in 2011 and 12 and CHK is looking for high teens %age growth for the same periods. I'd expect SWN to post a number close to 25% when they give guidance and for the rest to come in around mid to high single digit territory at least for 2011.
  • K) Biggest improvement here is DVN due to their asset sales which shrinks them back to North America. Biggest deterioration of late has been EOG but so far its controlled and not a big deal. 
  • L) SE
  • M) Also not that relevant at the moment as the year is nearly done. Look for the market to punish those who opts to severely outspend cash flow in 2011 (>20%)
  • N) Winner winner chicken dinner = NBL. I'm still getting to know them but like all I've seen and read so far.
  • P) Two biggest increases since our update after the second quarter are CHK (which I frankly think is a bit misguided but see as a play against natural gas which I can understand but would have picked a different horse to play for the downside there) and EOG, which has doubled in SI but is still small. 
  • Q&R) SWN wins as lowest cash cost operator in the big caps which is why I still own some in the ZLT despite the weak gas price environment. It's also why their price / Mcfe reserve valuation is higher. 

Other Stuff

  • NFX Buys Marcellus Acreage From EOG
    • NFX is acquiring 50,000 net acres for $405 mm or $8,100 / acre before considering
      • modest production of 7 MM/d gross
      • and 11 drilled but not yet completed wells
    • Newfield entered the Marcellus in late 2009 in a joint venture with HES, that gave NFX 35,000 net acres in the play split between Susquehanna and Wayne Counties, PA. They've been fairly mum on their results to date in the play (3 wells with HES so far) and we have not seen the Marcellus mentioned in recent presentations. 
    • EOG has also been quiet on their thoughts here but they kept 170,000 net acres in the play. 
    • NFX did put an unrisked reserve estimate of 1.5 to 2.0 Tcfe on the acreage, which puts a better face on the buy than does the price per acre. 
    • Nutshell: While the pricing at first blush seems high, note that it is roughly the same as the CVX for ATLS deal last week (only on 1/10th the scale).  It sounds like they are ready to get busy in the play after assembling their team and poking around over the last 13 months. Plans are to run a 2 rig program in 2011, spending $100 mm that will be shifted away from Gulf of Mexico exploration (if you were wondering how things are going with the permitting process in the Gulf there is your answer).  

 

  • AXAS Earnings Call - 11 am EST. 
    • Not one of my names but it should be another slow day and I plan to listen to them, especially after they had to rein in guidance. 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • GMXR - Stifel cuts to Hold on liquidity concerns due to low natural gas prices
  • HAL - Argus bumps target from $42 to $48

122 Responses to “Tuesday Pause”

  1. 1
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – I finally bit on some HAL calls yesterday on weakness.  It seems alot of analysts are seeing the Z light.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Going to be a soft opening, back just before it. 

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Ram – if HAL pulls back on China / Ireland I may go ahead and roll to December calls 

  4. 4
    john11 Says:

    MHR presenting at Stephens right now for those interested…
    http://www.wsw.com/webcast/stph15/mhr/

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    AXAS – someone asked me about them awhile back. Statements like "our guidance may be overstated by 15%" is just part of why I normally give them a wide berth. Will be on the call as they have a few Bakken wells to talk about.

    For you Bone Springs fans, FPP reported, in a well with XEC, talk about a volatile little SDM. The guy who runs it, Ray Reeves is a likable fellow that can often be found out in the field doing his own workovers. 

     

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Thanks John.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    John – do you have the Stephens roster for the day, I know BEXP speaks there tomorrow

  8. 8
    ratberto Says:

    Z -Thank you for today's orange charts, great information.

  9. 9
    ram Says:

    Thanks Zman.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Rat – sure, look for the mid caps later in the week. 

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    MHR – talking dramatic change to proved reserves at year end. Talking booking 1 or maybe 2 offsets for each Eagle Ford well they drill. 

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Eli – are you still playing about in MHR?

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    MHR – 2 distressed asset acquisitions to be announced soon. I promised Eli a slice and dice here awhile back and then it shot to $5 and I sort of got busy with other things. During the post 3Q lull I will go ahead and get that done, and will add them back to the catalyst list. 

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Sharp but very light volume pullbacks almost across the board. Oil at 2 week low on China, not surprising that it comes off, should pause pre $80. Thinking I will take a WLL call position soon for a soon to be released operations update. 

  15. 15
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    The Epic Battle between Bulls and Bears continues.  Bears have the field today, but the credit market strength stacks the deck for the Bulls to win in the long run. 
     
    IG credit index only off 1 bps this morning.  Yawwwwwwwn.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    MCF up 2% on inclusion in the S&P600 index. 

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the update BOP. Gotta say I'd rather see the weakness early than late in this week. Hope you got all the GM share allocation you wanted. 

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    From XACS#2 this morning —
     
    We know that equity and macro sentiment is so poor that, unless stocks can regain and hold the S&P 1200 area soon, we
    believe that we should see more pressure from the credit bears sufficient to quickly take stocks down to at least the 1130-1150
    area. But the credit market is saying that if stocks have another correction, it should be just a correction, as credit investors
    stand willing to fund more and more deals. The reception the credit market gave to Caterpillar’s purchase of Bucyrus is
    another indication of that.

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GM — i put in for the same number of shares that Rick Wagoner did.

  20. 20
    elijahwc Says:

    Z on MHR very much so.  Both common and preferred (MHRpC).   Have been hearing the same on the two acquisitions.  One before year end and the other early next year.

  21. 21
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Would you give any grade to the EOG side on the NFX deal? Read through some WMB comments re their Bakken purchase. They were very proud of now being in 3 of the most active growth areas: Bakken, Marcellus & Piceance. I don't know much about the last. Do you have a quick and dirty about where and who is there? They also mentioned 3 tribes. Is that who they made the purchase from? 

  22. 22
    bill Says:

    mcf is thinly traded so big up moves on up days

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    re 20 – OK, thanks, finally doing some reading there. 

    re 21:

    B+ for pricing and for timing as they need to sell assets to stay within their new debt to cap target for 2011. 

    Piceance (don't pronounce that first c) has been around a very long time as plays go contains a who's who of players from XOM to MRO. Both oily and gassy parts of it. 

  24. 24
    tomdavis12 Says:

    23 Where is it geographically?

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    re 24:

    http://webhosting.web.com/imagelib/sitebuilder/misc/show_image.html?linkedwidth=actual&linkpath=http://www.oilshalegas.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/piceance.jpg&target=tlx_piccf5g&title=Piceance%20Basin%20Map

  26. 26
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z:Thanks. Also Thanks for your charts this morning and your comments as well. Always helpful. 

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    The SP500 looks like ti wants hold Nicky's 1189 level mentioned last week, broke it earlier but now clinging to it. 

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – HAL

    HAL – Added (25) December $40 calls for $0.34 with the stock at $35.35, on a little market wide weakness. I'll be exiting the rest of my November calls between now and week's end. 

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Re 26 – No problem. Piceance is bread and butter for a lot of names, not sure I see any play there at present. 

  30. 30
    bill Says:

    eog sold some of efs to pxp and now todays sale , they quietly raised 1 billion in cash

  31. 31
    mimster90 Says:

    zman, great chart and color on the Bigs, looking forward to the mids next week.

    What is the near term catalysts for HAL calls above?

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Bill – yeah, as per their plan, market still doesn't like it as they are now in the "have to sell stuff to pay the capex bill crowd with Aubrey" … but they are doing what they said and surely sold it for much more than the acquisition price plus wells drilled to date price.

    Mim- nothing really, and I put it in the ZIM for that reason. My thinking is the market has them incorrectly priced and that either their peers will come down in multiple to match them (not really what I'm looking for with the trade obviously) or they will expand in multiple as we approach year end. If there is any kind of catalyst for them in the short term it will be the buoyant rig counts we see each Friday. They are up this quarter to date again on the oil side, offsetting a tiny dip on the gas side which, along with the tightness we've seen and pricing that comes with that and cost cutting they have announced should give analysts further comfort in ratcheting up 4Q EPS estimates from current levels which are only about 6 cents stronger than 3Q numbers. With International almost a lock as an improvement over 3Q, I doubt this is going to be where EPS falls out. 

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Wow, spoke too soon on the S&P. 

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    CPE – Weil ups to target from $5 to $7. 

    Getting on the AXAS call in 15 minutes. 

  35. 35
    VTZ Says:

    Adding back my trading positions in gold shortly at ~1340 and silver ~25. Could fall as low as 1320 and 24 without making me more worried about the short term.

  36. 36
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Looks like we have Nutbag 1 & 2 in SA. Ecuador's Correa following Chavez' game plan.  

  37. 37
    Alhambra Says:

    exited my silver short a couple minutes ago…

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Bill – I read that TPH was pretty neutral on the NFX acreage add, saying market will penalize them in the near term for buying gas assets. Not to judge TPH because that's probably the correct assessment but it's probably a better time to be looking for gas asset buys than oil. 

    VTZ – thanks for the update. 

    Tom – Correa is a nut indeed, a well educated one, but still a nut.  PhD in economics and all he learned was that if you run the govt you should steal things? Sheesh.  

  39. 39
    mimster90 Says:

    Any updated levels from Nicky?

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    re 39, I have an email in with her but I think she is traveling. 

  41. 41
    bill Says:

    mmr is at 16.10 ouch.. they get everybody excited, then go quiet for 3 months
     
    ng is actually up today while oil is down big

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – WLL

    WLL – Added (5) WLL December $110 calls for $1.84 with the stock at $103.60. Expecting an operations update any day now.  

  43. 43
    Alhambra Says:

    Z, thanks for the orange charts- Wondering if  we could we get a quarter to quarter time comparison for some of the charts you feel that would be relevant?

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Austria withholding its funds from Greek bailout package. 

    Market rolling lower. 

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    was Nicky's low end of the range 1178?  Almost there….

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    re 43. Yeah, have noodled on that and didn't come up with a good way to present it. Will remull. 

  47. 47
    bill Says:

    The bulker stocks are being taken to the wood shed today

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    re 47. Coals too. Anything with a direct link to China is being baby and bathwatered. 

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    re 45 – yes, I believe it was. 

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Cracked that level, SP500's 50 day is down at 1165

  51. 51
    ram Says:

    I wonder if Joe is saying I told you so to his management?  How does Austria withholding funds unravel billions and billions of dollars in international markets?

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    re 51. Oh it's just one more straw today. In light of the run the markets have had in the last 2 months it's not much of a move. Today is the first time the S&P fell below the 20 day SMA in that time and it dove for the 50 (not there yet). WildZ trade on the way. 

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    WILDZTRADE – High Risk Trade

    HAL – Added back (40) HAL November $36 calls for average cost of $0.25 with the stock near $35. 

  54. 54
    cargocult Says:

    Anything on the horizon to lift EOG?

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Cargo – Nothing near term from a well news standpoint. Asset sales are the big ticket news items but not sure that's as much of a lifting event as something just gets ticked off the Street's list of things to watch for. I think the stock needs time to rest after cutting their long term forecast in half. Today is all market related … needs to settle down and go sideways. If it goes into the lower $80s / upper $70s I'm likely to add more common. I'm not playing options here for now and not thinking short term. I do think it is a name that, if it gets much weaker, moves up the list of buyout candidates.   Speaking of that, man was the CVX for ATLS merger euphoria short lived. 

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/geithner-sees-deal-on-tax-cuts-soon-2010-11-16

  57. 57
    choices Says:

    Z, as you mentioned, coals getting hit today-do you have any interest in WLT or BTU on red days-they are volatile.
    Thanks.

  58. 58
    ram Says:

    Well, I took a mighty fine day to stop drinking and buy options.  It's O.K. though – buy low sell higher.

  59. 59
    choices Says:

    Eli, #20-what's not to like on MHR-C, pays ~10% and does not appear to that volatile post div as some of the other hi-yields-in other words, what is the risk?
    Thanks!

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Choices – I am waiting for a string of red days as they have both had tremendous runs lately. I sold my WLT common a bit early and while I don't care about buying it back lower, it has lost some of the cheapness, maybe 10% or so, that it had from when I bought it. Still like the name on the fundamentals but as you say, it is very volatile and is very much a mo-mo trader, so getting in when the crowd is (still) getting out is somewhat frustrating on the common and painful on the options. In general, since coal is not my first love, I take smaller positions when I do go in. Having listened to only about half of the available 3Q earnings calls I get the impression that demand is still up and to the right for the near, medium, and long term time frames. So yes, am looking to play a dip, just want to give it time to be a mature dip. 

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    re 58, hear ya on that. 

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Ugly outside, ugly in the market, doing some excel file cleanup. Will probably have an SDM slice and dice piece out for the morning. Names so far are: SSN, BSIC, VYOG, PQ, GST. Other suggestions welcome but may be included in a part 2 if I am working on them anyway or in a part 3 out some time in the future if not. 

  63. 63
    choices Says:

    #60-thanks-very good points to wait, rather than jump on at the first red day in a while.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    re 63, good to watch it though, this makes two big down days for little met coal miner WLT, and it along with BTU did fill a gap from the start of the month today so maybe it bounces … that's more JB's realm, by far, than mine to say. 

  65. 65
    ram Says:

    CXPO

  66. 66
    ram Says:

    KOG and CIGX

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    right, forgot to say they are in for tomorrow. 

  68. 68
    ram Says:

    RAME

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    KOG – maybe but despite their price I consider them to be more of a real deal than the most of the science projects that most SDM's are. 

    CIGX – that's funny

    RAME – not up on them enough to do one for the morning but thanks.  

  70. 70
    kaman Says:

    Z- Nothing worth note on AXAS call?  I gather they reined in guidance because they won't deliver on completing several wells on time.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    re 70 – got busy and tabled it for listening to the replay. Yes, guidance off due to delays. 

  72. 72
    cargocult Says:

    I can buy low but have trouble selling high. These red days remind me that its good manners to leave something for the next guy or I'll miss the meal all together. So I'm taking my gains in ROSE with a big THANK YOU Z and all others concerned.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Cargo – great, glad that worked!

  74. 74
    ram Says:

    Apparently the fed's open treasury purchases can't trump China or Euro issues.

  75. 75
    elijahwc Says:

    #59 Choices: MHRpC risk is that of any other non-rated development company run in high octane full leverage growth mode, they better deliver.  I'm not too worried however as MHR is going to have the highest of curves on that hockey stick.
    I own a lot.  The trick is to sit 5 to 7 cents back on the bid on Xdates and let it come to you.  If you can't wait then you can bid 24.99 a usually pick some up but be aware that the company is selling it to you at 25 and above.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    7% discount sale on AREX today. 

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Grabbing lunch, back in 30 min

  78. 78
    mimster90 Says:

    is TAT a SDM?

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Yes TAT is but I won't include it tomorrow as that's a special case. 

  80. 80
    choices Says:

    #75, thanks again, Eli-I picked a small amount @25 to watch it.

  81. 81
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Williams Bakken acreage acqtn… thought i read somewhere that Nexgen was the seller.  Did I just dream that up?  Or is it out there somewhere….

  82. 82
    RobBanks Says:

    Can't find SDM in the Z dictionary.  Sharp dressed man? Size doesn't matter? Swedish death metal?

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Single digit midget

  84. 84
    RobBanks Says:

    Ah. Should have guessed. I tried.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    It should be on the dictionary page. What's interesting is that there is no real midget tossing on these big bad red days, for the most part they just don't trade on these days. My experience is that if the broad market selling persists for 3 or 4 days thought that the get tossed as well and catch up quickly in % terms. 

  86. 86
    RobBanks Says:

    BOP, are you thinking of Plains All American that just bought Bakken pipeline and storage and oil in storage from Nexen?

  87. 87
    RobBanks Says:

    #85, yes, KOG and SSN holding up very well today.

  88. 88
    bill Says:

    Anyone have an MMR update

  89. 89
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RobBanks — thanks.  Hate it when i get the two mixed up.  Embarassing.  thx.

  90. 90
    choices Says:

    News a day old-PIIGS spreads
    http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/11/daily_chart_0

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Bill – Only that we could get pay totals any day to any week for the rest of the year at Blackbeard East and that we have to be in section at the Davy Jones appraisal well. I've not heard anything of late from anyone who gets more regular drilling updates. 

  92. 92
    RobBanks Says:

    Is Madison Williams anybody? Cut BEXP from neutral to reduce.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Re 92. I think BOP likes those guys so that's important. If it is a valuation call then I have to think the effects will be pretty short lived. Can't think of what else they might not like … maybe oil prices up here. 

  94. 94
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I like the guys at Madison Wms…. they do a good job keeping their ear to the ground.  No one is perfect, however.  But I think they are pretty good.

  95. 95
    RobBanks Says:

    Ah, OK. If BOP likes 'em, that counts for sure. Sorry, no details, just the one line about the rating cut.

  96. 96
    VTZ Says:

    BOP – OT, but do you have thoughts on going long TBT or buying calls on it?

  97. 97
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    VTZ — Thanks for asking.  Just fyi, I am out of all my bond funds.  Only own individual bonds.  I think the UST 10 yr at 6% is an investment.  The UST 10 yr at 3% is speculation. 
     
    One of the smartest cross-asset class investors i know has been short the long end of the yield curve for several months.  It has killed him.  But he is holding on.  At some point, he expects to be right. 
     
    That would argue going long, vs buying calls.  I have done neither.  But I am staying away from investment grade bond funds.

  98. 98
    elijahwc Says:

    #88 Bill, Ibelieve the weight on MMR the last two days are the 10.7 million new shares from the mandatory conversion of the 6 3/4% preferreds.  Shares show up tommorrow but the transaction was effective over the weekend (15th) so lots of non-common holders could sell knowing shares will be in the account to settle sale yesterday and today.
     
    BTW: On the good news front, Leon Cooperman's Omega Ptrs have a new position in MMR of a little over a million shares and this makes it a top 100 holding.  Recall that Cooperman is also one thelargest holders of EXXI.

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    Big headline on MarketWatch, Crude Futures Tumble 3%. Wow, shocking. These guys need to read the posts. 

  100. 100
    irongate Says:

    Some market color today…..   Here it comes guys…..    http://www.youtube-nocookie.com/watch?v=4eYSpIz2FjU&feature=related

  101. 101
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Senator Durbin on BB TV saying he is not very optimistic that the tax cuts can be extended now.
     
    What a Dick.  (that is his first name, btw)

  102. 102
    bill Says:

    lmfao 101

  103. 103
    bill Says:

    im outta here……..
    cant stand days like this

  104. 104
    ram Says:

    I can't stand this either.  I think I'll stare at the grass to offset the sea of red I've been staring at all day.

  105. 105
    elijahwc Says:

    FTK: All the way back to green @ 2.95 after trading down to 2.65 earlier.  Since this has been the leading %gainer on the NYSE over thae last three days it was due some cashiering.   But this tells you something.

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    I look through these days as noise. Boring yes with an opportunity here and there to buy what I like at cheaper price. 

  107. 107
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    zman — 106 = BINGO.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    Interesting study in beta … just overlay an XLE minute chart on the S&P. 

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Not that the selloff wasn't probably overdue and that it might not go on for longer but I liked my stories yesterday and the day before that an Ireland certainly isn't going to derail them. China's decision to slow down has been pretty well telegraphed as well and its not like they still won't grow at 4x the rate the US will. 

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    AXAS – CK Cooper cuts to Hold "as 3Q results disappoint"

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    Cheapbeerthiryty

  112. 112
    elduque Says:

    Good afternoon Z- Thanks for all that you are doing. Pretty amazing how much you get accomplished.

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    NOG on the tape with an 8 mm share secondary

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    Thanks Eld

    NOG – also providing 2011 guidance, back with details in a bit.

  115. 115
    Jerome Blank Says:

    $NYMO, McClellan now in oversold terriitory at -86.89, lowest level since May…suggests that the upside risk is increasing

  116. 116
    zman Says:

    Thanks much JB. Nicky is out of pocket, care to take a shot at support and resistance levels for the S&P500?

  117. 117
    Zorgnak Says:

    The way I measure things 1072 was the last support level. I'm expecting a rotation to 1078 and then back to 1090

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    re 117 – thanks. 

    BP Spill Panel mouthing off after the close again in an interim report. Sounds like most blame back on BP as it is talking about BP's well design being imprudent (they said there was nothing wrong with the design and that it was standard not 2 weeks ago) and questioning the decision not to run a bond log on the cement job. That last item is what the SLB crew was on the rig for and BP elected not to run it, so that was not up to HAL. As soon as the SLB guys were told no bond log would be run they hit the helicopter for shore. 

  119. 119
    Zorgnak Says:

    re 117
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/11/16/ES_Test.png
    Chart showing areas of interest in the SP500 Futures

  120. 120
    Jerome Blank Says:

    The NYSE and S&P bullish percents are a bit lofty, but still reading bull confirmed, so the macro picture suggests the bulls are still in control…I posted an S&P daily which shows the break of the 20 period SMA and supportive trendline, which had to have disappointed millions of eyes, thinkning the obvious next major support is the 50 day SMA at 1165…  

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    re 119, 120. Excellent. 

  122. 122
    Zorgnak Says:

    Volume Profile Chart showing the 1165-1167.50 as likely places for the market too at least slow down and or reverse..if it gets that low.
    1078 Was the major area of acceptance(value) and it's hugging that tonight. Next area of value above is at 1090
    See Chart

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