15
Nov

Monday Morning Calm

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Market Sentiment Watch: Somewhat nervous looking market ... with everyone asking if this is the near term top. My sense is that we are due for a pullback but that we will likely end the year higher than 1,250 on the S&P with $90 ish oil  but that's just a hunch. 3Q earnings season is just about wrapped up save some small stragglers and non-Calendar reporters but the economic calendar for the week is fullish with a number of market moving data to be reported. China reports overnight hint at tightening but Japanese economic data were stronger than expected leading to a bounce in US futures early. This is the last week of the November equity options. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • Retail sales of 1.2% vs a forecast of 0.7
  • Sales ex autos of 0.4% vs forecast of 0.4%
  • Empire State Index for November of -11.14 vs 15 forecast and last read of 15.7. Go figure. 

Housekeeping Watch: Our new servers have arrived and running in test mode. We should have them live by the end of the week. Our old host has been gracious enough to keep this site active and we are looking to migrate seamlessly but you never know with these things so please bookmark the backup site just in case we suddenly wink out here.

www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com

The Week Ahead:

  • Monday 11/15: We get Inventories for September at 10 am EST, F = 0.9%
  • Tuesday 11/16: PPI (F = 0.8%, 0.1% core), Industrial production (F = 0.2%), Homebuilder's index (F = 16)
  • Wednesday 11/17:  EIA Oil Inventory Report, CPI (F = 0.3%, 0.1% core), Housing starts (F = 600K)
  • Thursday 11/18: EIA Natural Storage Report, Jobless claims (F = 445K), leading indicators (F = 0.6%), Philly Fed (F = 5.0)
  • Friday 11/19: No ecodata release scheduled.
  • Saturday 11/20: November equity option expiry.  

In Today's Post:

  • Holdings Watch
  • Commodity  Watch
  • Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List Update, APC, VYOG
  • Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,000
  • 99% Cash

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $8,800
  • 34% Cash


ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

Friday's Trades - added more NOG (3rd piece there now, just about full), and a second trading position in KOG on weakness. I should be settling back into my not so tradey ZLT style this week.

 

NOG – Added another position in NOG common, for an average cost of $19.22. The stock came off following the 3Q results call after it tapped $22. This feels like enough is enough on the downside for them (off another 5% today), but if it falls further I may add a final piece to round out my position here.

KOG – Added a second trading position at $4.23. My sense is this will be a 3 to 6 month hold in addition to the Core position which is likely to be held longer.



Commodity  Watch:

Crude oil ended last week of 2% to close at $84.88, with all of the loss coming on Friday's equity market pause. The 12 month crude strip trading at $86.73.  This morning crude is trading up $0.50.

  • IEA Watch: Demand seen higher. The Paris based energy group bump up their projection for global crude demand for 2010 by 200,000 bopd to arrive at a YoY increase of 400,000 bopd to 87.3 mm bopd. IEA points to further growth of 1.2 mm bopd in 2011 to 88.5 mm bopd.

Natural gas was flat on the week, ending at $3.94. We remain range bound. The 12 month strip is now trading at $4.11. This morning gas is trading up slightly on colder weather forecasts. 

 

  • Tropics Watch: Something minor brewing southeast of Honduras, 20% probability of development. 

Stuff We Care About Today

Catalyst List (yellow is updated)




Other Stuff

  • Tomorrow - The Large Cap E&P Orange Charts
  • APC/Tullow Oil Discovery Off Sierra Leone
    • Mercury well discovers 135 net feet of oil pay in two Cretacious fan systems.
    • APC operates the block with a 65% WI, Repsol and Tullow hold the remaining interests.
    • Light, sweet crude, with no water contact so there is potential to deepen or sidetrack for additional pay
    • This is their second discovery off Sierra Leone, the first being Venus announced in September 2009 and confirmed as having 45 net feet of pay in May 2010, capping a string of successes for an APC and partners off both costs of Africa (Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, and Sierra Leone) in the last two years.
    • There may be an opportunity for a quick call trade in here today.
  • BEXP speaks at a Stephens conference on Wednesday. I had lunch with Stephens new E&P analyst several weeks back, smart guy, out of XTO management, will be interested to see if he can come with a Buy rating on the name or if it has run too sharply.
  • DSX Reports $0.42 vs $0.40 expected
    • Conference Call: Today, 9 am EST.
  • VYOG - the next Bakken wannabe announces it's Niobrara non-operated position has yielded 2 apparent discoveries. A 650 bopd IP at one locations, a second located soon to be fracced and third well that was mentioned as having been drilled. They see costs coming in well below estimates which is a bit surprising this early in the program but they are drilling with private Slawson as operator so that makes some sense. This is unlikely to become the next NOG soon but it bears watching.  

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • NFX - Goldman ups target by $4 to $74
  • KWK - Goldman ups to Neutral
  • AREX - Keybanc reaffirms Buy rating 
  • SD - Goldman cuts target a buck to $5
  • DVN - Jefferies raitses target $13 to $18, maintains Buy


111 Responses to “Monday Morning Calm”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Front and Center Watch

    APC for a December Call entry

    HAL and NFX for remaining position November call exits

    DSX for an early morning earnings call today

    BSIC for earnings sometime this week. 

    WLL – thinking this is the week we hear about 3 more Lewis and Clark wells, middle of the fairway and one near their discovery well in the play that should be a bigger completion. 

  2. 2
    bill Says:

    dsx- got in friday at 13,38 and will be out today at 13.80. Daytrade on earnings
    Nothing unexpected in report.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Thanks bill, listening to their call now. 

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Someone has fat fingers trading EXXI this morning.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    DSX – sees 7.6% Chinese GDP growth per year for 10 years, sounds like same stats on Iron shipments (strong) as was heard on the WLT and BTU calls a month back. 

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    DSX Notes:

    Coal story points to continued insatiable demand out of China and India

    Grain products – remain steady in 2010 / 2011 after a 4% drop in the 2009/10 season.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Growth for drybulk – missed the exact numbers but sounded like market grows by about 10% per year between now and 2013, all shipments taken into account. 

  8. 8
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Good morning. 
     
    As our government returns to work today, here is something to keep in mind…
     
    o  in 2008 Ben Bernanke was worried about INflation because he was watching oil prices go up… but the problem was with the banking system (which could have been saved for a mere fraction of the ultimate cost by an aggressive easing of monetary policy in Spring 2008)
     
    o in 2010 Ben Bernanke is worried about DEflation because he is looking at housing prices go down…. but the problem is with our fiscal policy (which the Fed itself can do nothing about) and there are actually some cogent arguments for tightening federal monetary policy at this point (but that is a whole different discussion).
     
    In both cases Ben Bernanke is focused on exactly the wrong problem…. but is adding tremendous amounts of fuel to the real problem.  Why is this so tough for him to understand? 
     
    Here is a cartoon that explains this latest move.  Maybe it's simple enough for even an economist to understand…
    http://youtu.be/PTUY16CkS-k
     
     
    Bottom line = buy hard assets.  So oil, nat gas, productive land (energy or minerals or food) are great places to be.
     

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    DSX – Scrapping not nearly strong enough to offset newbuilds.

  10. 10
    DrLink Says:

    60 Minutes did a segment on natural gas last night. Extensive interview with Aubrey. He was pounding the table on the virtues of natural gas while Lesley Stahl was bringing up the purported water contamination isuue fears of Sierra Club etc. I thought he did a good job.
    http://www.cbs.com/primetime/60_minutes/video/?pid=IgZ6whr_gEKi77deXaGHCzqw5lYeNkVI&vs=homepage&play=true

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Thanks DRL – will have a listen post DSX call. 

  12. 12
    john11 Says:

    Somethings got KOG excited this morning.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    John – yeah, leading the Bakkens higher today, all up nicely except for NOG which is flat. 

    Surprised VYOG not running on the Niobrara, sleepy start today, tempted to take a piece but I don't want too many SDM's in the portfolio. Of course, the obvious solution to that is to replace something with it. TAT is on the bubble for me. 

    CXPO back to the pre call highs, count down to news there is not that long and though I don't see it as a long term hold I'm intrigued by the China investment angle and by the potential for strong catalysts in the next 10 weeks.

    GST – same on the catalyst front

    KOG – well run, really a single digit midget in stock price only, glad BOP found this one and plan to hold quite some time. Right now the hockey stick on production is about to get seriously steep.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    EOG – $130 target falls to $115 at Oppenheimer

  15. 15
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Last week strong beat for PBR. CC 11/16 9AM ET. They do both english and portuguese. 877-317-6776 passcode Petrobras (english different number if you want Portug). Issues for CC 1. Capex for '11. 2. production growth. 3. Cost of equipment built in Brazil and line up of prospect development.

  16. 16
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TPH  saying they are "restricted" from talking about the Bakken Kids this morning… maybe that is what goosed KOG.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    APC – pretty muted response to confirmation of the play extending under more acreage off Sierra Leone that previously known. 

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Thanks Tom – been awhile since I paid much attention to them, once the discoveries started coming monthly and the capex piled into the $10's of billions it got hard to track. 

    Thanks BOP – they went silent on the whole group? Hmmm. 

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PAA buying some NXY crude gathering and transportation assets in the Bakken area.

  20. 20
    redjack Says:

    Williams acquiring acreage in the bakken…
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/williams-paying-925-million-for-bakken-oil-2010-11-15

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Site running slow for me, if you can't get in here later today I have posted today's post on the backup site:

     

    http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com/2010/11/15/monday-morning-main-site-slow-and-or-down/

  22. 22
    andy Says:

    bop  = maybe KOG up on williams buy is reservation land??

  23. 23
    scoop006 Says:

    refresh=fine now

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    HAL gave back all of the morning's gains with the S&P, next trip up I punt the rest of those $36 strikes. 

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    OAS bucking the pullback, not expecting any near term catalysts there, just thinking people are rounding out positions and think that its relatively cheap in the group with a good sized acreage position. Nothing impressive came off the Confidential list for them this morning. 

  26. 26
    skimo Says:

    Site was slow an hour ago but refreshing very quickly now.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Thanks guys – my deal with my current and very soon to be former host was that if my site drags their server down they turn me off. So it may wink out at any time. We hope to be on our own servers by Wednesday or Thursday. 

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Nice trade in DSX Bill, I don't see adding them myself at this time, sounds like new capacity is still a very large, looming problem for the industry. I'm not certain how much that varies from Pana to Supra/Handymax etc though. May be some opportunity to play. 

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    TAT strong on filing of 8K with amended quarterly results from 2Q. Should get 3Q results this week.  Pretty sure I'm going to be exiting the name in the next 90 days unless they give a good operations update with the next call. 

  30. 30
    jat Says:

    re 22 yep
     
    WMB- pricey entrance in Bakken: $925MM, $10,755/acre (~$8,000/acre excl production of 3,300 Bbl/d) in Fort Berthold area which is KOGQEP focus.  Also read thru for BEXP, NOG, OAS, WLL & CLR. WMB is right sizing the E&P unit for spin.

  31. 31
    cargocult Says:

    Bill-why do you think EXM is so cheap? Trading at .30xbook and 2x earnings?

  32. 32
    elduque Says:

    Re Bulkers- from a Golden Ocean Aug/Sept report recommended by Bill .

    Capacity Utilization: 2008 95.5%, 2009 91.7%, 2010  90.2%, 2011 89.7%, 2012 90.1%
    This is factoring in 13% growth.
    Sort of like Nat Gas – Hard to see where the stocks can do well, until the underlying fundamentals on the supply side straighten themselves out.
     

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Good to have you back Jat. Last week I did an update of the Bakken players. You can see the market valuation of their acreage in this link:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2010/11/12/kung-pao-friday/

  34. 34
    andy Says:

    z – so if KOG sold their reservation holdings for the same price as WMB paid – what would that be per share?

  35. 35
    bill Says:

    lng up 12.5 % on re exporting of lng hope

  36. 36
    bill Says:

    who is the seller to williams any guesses?

  37. 37
    bill Says:

    cargo– too much supply coming into the market. Actually demand is up this year.
    BDI is down over 10 days in a row. EXM book is overstated as values have dropped
    Good comment in # 32 and Z in # 28..agree with both
    Im out for now until rates improve
    Todays bulker news, NM spun off 2 capes with charters to NMM. Dividend/income buyers might want to look at nmm- divy should be secure for a while

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    re 34. About $5.05

    re 36. No telling – almost seems like it would have to be XTO/XOM given the size. 

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    I wonder at Williams buying that position, concentrated in that part of the Basin and not just buying KOG instead. They could have offered a good premium to assure the deal was done and hit the ground running with production. 

  40. 40
    choices Says:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/caterpillar-buying-bucyrus-for-86-billion-2010-11-15-819230
    CAT buying BUCY-$8.2 bil-huge deal,the big guys are ratcheting up action, w/cash, cheap debt, good for hard asset growth.

  41. 41
    crysball Says:

    EGY is up over 6%  this morning  on NO NEWS.
    Could Williams  still  plan to buy KOG (although they would have paid less had they purchased B4  making  their FBIR announcement)?? 

  42. 42
    bill Says:

    from citi
     
    The White House oil spill commission stated it found no evidence to support
    accusations that BP was sacrificing safety to save money in the Deepwater
    Horizon rig explosion in April. The commission’s Chief Counsel Fred Bartlit said
    the panel agreed with 90% of the findings of BP’s internal investigation of the
    accident, which assigned much of the blame for the explosion to its drilling
    partners and sharply criticized Halliburton’s cementing job. Although the
    commission agreed that BP took unnecessary risks as it tried to abandon the
    Macondo well, it concluded that a series of events lead to the incident

  43. 43
    zman Says:

     

    VYOG – holding up 6.5% on their Niobrara news. Quick back of the envelope makes it pretty easy to get well above their current TEV on Bakken and Niobrara positions.  Landman in charge of the company and they are doing the right things in terms of grabbing acreage in plays he should know and are partnered with experienced operators. Note the last name of the CEO is Reger, same as CEO at NOG, someone said they are brothers. 

    Just looking at the numbers

    Bakken @ 24,000 net acres @ $6000 / ac = $144 mm

    Niorabra @ 24,000 net acres @ $3000 /ac = $72 mm

    Total is $216 mm

    They also have a sizable position in the Heath Shale (MT) and in some other Montana acres. Lets give them nothing for that for the moment. 

    TEV here is $167 mm.

     

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Crys – sure but I would have done the deals at the same time if possible. I'm guessing they didn't think Lynn would bite for less than $7+

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Could also be that TPH wrote the Williams deal fairness opinion. 

  46. 46
    bill Says:

    45> which means they will put a sell on them next week for paying too much

  47. 47
    redjack Says:

    Some more color regarding the Oil Spill Commission report:
    http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/7294735.html

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    re 46 – HAHAHA – I knew that would be your thought, lol. 

    Market looking sleepy, awaiting the rest of this week's data. I will punt my HAL on the next run as I think there is still too much headline risk out of the government for options, especially ones with 4.5 days of life left in them. For the stock, my sense is that it is still cheap to the group on a forward multiple and that this gap will tighten. 4Q rig count is higher in the US and international continues to turn the corner. Couple that with re-expanding margins and you have stronger earnings 4Q vs 3Q. Street is currently looking for 4Q EPS of $0.62 vs 3Q's $0.56 … still could be some upside to that estimate. 

  49. 49
    mimster90 Says:

    sorry for my ignornace, but in general why would someone have to go silent on a whole group? I have never heard of somone buying multiple companies all at once.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Mim – can't think of a reason for that other than an overzealous compliance department… my guess is they wrote one of the fairness opinions and had all the companies in the Bakken list as comps. 

  51. 51
    elduque Says:

    Z- why are you not in CHK? It seems to me it is the most undervalued stock in your universe.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Eld – There is only so much room for gas-weighted stocks in my portfolio at present, so not really a knock on them other than I think the stock won't perform as well as some others in the gassy group. I am likely to be back in before mid 2011 and maybe by 1Q11 but I think gas will be softish this winter and even if they ratchet the liquids profile it won't be a big move anytime soon. 

  53. 53
    tomdavis12 Says:

    MS report from 11/8. Heading "Global Oil Services Drilling & Equipment: Oil Majors Ramping up Deepwater E&P Budgets. Gist is that CHV, Total, Statoil & BP Increasing capex for 2011 and where they are doing it. Positions they recommend SLB, SDRL,WFT, NOV & TS.  

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    And I'd add HAL to that list … DW was a major focus of growth at HAL's analyst day last week. 

  55. 55
    elduque Says:

    Re CHK- Why don't you think the market is and will not give them any credit for all their oil plays, which are significant.

  56. 56
    bill Says:

    Gm underwriters  upsize size and price. They have done a great job creating the sizzle
    Amazing, that institutions will buy into this.
    What did they do tear up the union contracts? Why is GM so attractive now.

  57. 57
    bill Says:

    elduque, I agree with you. Only thing holding back chk is ng price.

  58. 58
    bill Says:

    Minority firms get a gift allocation of hot GM shares from US govt.
    Campaign donations would be appreciated

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    re 55.

    CHK

    The market does not like the fact that the name is as gassy as it is and is outspending cash flow in 2011 and maybe in 2012. While the oil plays are good they are less than 20% of volumes in 2012. The market/analysts are missing the boat here in my book and will very likely end up upgrading the name higher however I cannot change how they think about the name so until some macro events I see unfolding down the line (like higher gas prices in the back half of 2011 due to a falling rig count and recovering domestic economy (and I don't think exports will be anything significant by then) I don't see the stock moving all that much. Niobrara and Bakken and maybe the Woodbine can serve to drive it back up next year but for now I'm waiting. Aubrey still has a problem of being seen as a spendy guy and it does not matter how often he buys something for $1 and sells it for $4 while getting carried on the development with the Street. Until he actually outcashflows his rate of spend the Street will be hard pressed to get on board. Again, I think they are wrong in this. As to the value, it should be significantly above current levels. CNOOC should buy the whole thing for more than double it's current value but that's not going to happen, either due to politics or due to CHK's size. XOM just took a big bite, CHV could but probably won't and COP did a deal this decade so they are probably out of the running. I listened to 6 or so hours of analyst day presentations here about 2 weeks ago and was impressed but the Street reaction was only dull interest. So I wait and if it takes a big header on a big bad red set of days, I may start to nibble. Not to defend Aubrey's maps and comp and all but he does a heck of a job at running that company and he could change his name and do the same job else where the Street would love the story of buy low and sell high with a free ride on what you keep. 

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    HAL introduces CleanStim – fracture fluids sourced entirely from materials in the food industry.   So I guess the theory is that if the frac fluids were to get in your water well that would be OK because the FDA has already signed off on the edibility of this stuff, lol. 

  61. 61
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 59 Also CHK – Aubrey -Tom W almost went down the tubes in '98. So there is a precedent for him not doing everything right. Some analysts have long memories for these things.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Re 61. That was Austin Chalk based, and oil was $12 and gas sub $2, don't see that happening now. But I hear you on old prejudices. 

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    BSIC on the tape earning 4 cents. No one follows them and this compares to 2 cents last quarter. Debt slightly down, nothing at all interesting in the 10Q, will ring them for an ops update. 

  64. 64
    crysball Says:

    EGY   now  up 9.7% today  on  NO News  and  above  average  volume.
    Note:  The  Angola  Block 5  (Shallow Water off Luanda) data room  does  not close  until   the end of November,   and   it  will take  months  for   any  decision by   Sonongal [Angolan   Oil Agency]…….so this could not be  the driver.

  65. 65
    bill Says:

    59 excellent summary on CHK best Ive seen anywhere.
    I think ng is at a low here, i like their land positions and im starting to nibble at it and hk.
    It has gone no where since the crash and long overdue for a move and when and if it moves people will be piling into it

  66. 66
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    crys — maybe Bobby has found something lovely to buy??  Thank you for continuing your gloriously deep data-dump and insights on EGY.  "Something" is brewing there, for sure.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    re 65. Thanks and I can't disagree with what you wrote either. I probably ought to inch up my NG weighting soon. 

  68. 68
    elduque Says:

    Amazing the answers you can get, with a simple question.

    Thank you.

    If you are new to the board. Don't be bashful, everyone of us can learn from your questions. The market is not static and what seems like an old question, becomes a new one today.
     

  69. 69
    reefguy Says:

    EGY-   BOP making dinero

  70. 70
    RobBanks Says:

    Z – how do you define a "full position"? Is it a percentage of the portfolio, or can it vary by the company?

  71. 71
    RMD Says:

    61 & 62 CHK's Austin Chalk crash was due to way overestimation/overstating PUDs, and then  the St. buying into CHK's numbers in the valuation.  Unbooking the PUDs and crashing stock (rumored to be going bankrupt at the time) does affect those with long memories, and undoubtedly influence CHK's discount to their heady valuation # in their slide show.  I also conclude Aubrey did not learn much of a lesson as he repeated again 10 yr. later.  Hey perhaps that means we have another 10 yr. until we have to worry?

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    re 70. Definitely varies by company. Depends on my confidence level / comfortability with the story, the current macro and management. For someone like BSIC a full position is a fraction of the value a full position in NFX or BEXP or EOG would be. For the simple reason that the name is an obscure micro cap and that it's so thin I can't easily get in or out of it. 

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    AREX at $20 … nice job RMD

  74. 74
    redjack Says:

    re: EGY
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/236875-will-vaalco-energy-capitalize-on-higher-prices-and-a-lower-dollar?source=yahoo

  75. 75
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    LEI just got themselves a good-looking partner in some of their EF acreage.  Maybe now, they will actually drill some wells and prove up that acreage.  Who is "Hall Phoenix Energy" though??  😉

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Also, on the subject of getting gassy, not that I may go back with shares in something like an ECA when I think gas marches higher. 

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    re 75 LOL, don’t ask, don’t tell

  78. 78
    tomdavis12 Says:

    RMD: 71 good color. You think Aubrey is still on margin. lol

  79. 79
    crysball Says:

    VYOG
     Spoke with  J. R. Reger………..The business  model for  developing  their  properties  is   patterned  on NOG, however,  their   leasehold acquisition  model   is   different  (he did not elaborate).
    The  WI %'s  at  VYOG  also  seem to be  higher………..which means they will need more capital……..sooner.
    J.R.   said   they have not announced their 2011  Capex  Plan  yet, wainting on some results.   
    J.R, said  if  they  develop  the Bakken  it  will  likely  be with debt,  the  D-J will   likely  be with eequity……………but no  plans   for further capital raising  until   sometime in 2011……….after they lay out the  2011 Capex plan.
    Z,  it  might be worth  a call ot  J.R. 
    iF GENES  are important     he comes  from a long  lineage  of  of family born under a pumpjack…………………and  NOG  CEO  is a family  member.
     

    James Russell (J.R.) Reger
    Chief Executive Officer, Director of Voyager
    James Russell (J.R.) Reger was the Chief Executive Officer of the Company since December 31, 2009 and has been our Chief Executive Officer and a director since April 16, 2010.  Mr. Reger was  born and raised in Billings, Montana and is the fourth generation in a family of oil and gas explorers and developers dating back more than 60 years.  Mr. Reger’s great grandfather was Vice President of Land for Mobil Oil’s Rocky Mountain operations. His grandfather, Jim Reger, co-founded the exploration firm of Norsworthy & Reger.  Prior to accepting the position as CEO of the Company, Mr. Reger was the President of South Fork Exploration, a mineral leasing company in Billings, MT with experience and interests in Montana and North Dakota.  Mr. Reger holds a B.A. in Finance from Baylor University in Waco, Texas.  We believe Mr. Reger’s qualifications to sit on our Board include his extensive experience in our core business of oil and gas exploration and production.

  80. 80
    elduque Says:

    OK. I am going to defend Aubrey. I for one got hammered when Lehman went under. No one and I mean no one realized what the implications of Lehman going under would do to the commodity stocks. Accounts were frozen in London and hedge funds were forced to liquidate. CHK was just another casualty. Aubrey liked his company and never dreamed it would reach the values that it did. If you look back most of his sales created the lows for the stock.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Crys – thanks for the color. I have held off due to a non Reger element involved, I think a professional poker player. Anyway, sort of more interested in this that some other little names at the moment, doing a little digging. I like the fact that it has a good land position, that he's 4th generation in the business and in the area doesn't hurt either. 

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Way off topic: Does anyone know if you can make Excel 2007 look like the old version, maybe a classic mode? Petra's Mac has the new version and she's about to flip out. 

  83. 83
    elduque Says:

    yes, if you youtube the question. there is a whole demonstration on how to combine 2004 with 2007. Tell Petra that there is a new Office for the mac 2011.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Thanks much ELd, will do!

  85. 85
    RobBanks Says:

    I was just wondering this past weekend if their were any barriers to entry to copy the NOG model. Could anyone set up shop and do the same thing? Is that what VYOG is doing?

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Rob – their probably were not 2 years ago. Now price and availability of contiguous acreage chunks of significant size are the issue. I do think that VYOG is trying it and we will see some others do the same but that acreage will be pricey. Note that CHK entered the Williston late in the game with 100,000 acres and then commented that it will never be a big area for them … too hard to get a big piece now without acquiring someone. That's why I was a little surprised to see Williams find that much acreage around the FBIR to buy. 

  87. 87
    Jerome Blank Says:

    LEI…updated chart, nice ascending triangle windup on the daily, support at $2.03, key reisistance at about $2.25 

  88. 88
    RMD Says:

    eld 80:  if you were worth $2billion in stock, but it was almost all pledged vs. margin loans, and gas was at $14/m, and you just sold some HS to PXP for a price PXP described as "they named a price and we said OK"…wouldn't you sell $500mm and reduce your leverage by half because "it doesn't get any better than this"?
    True, leverage cowboys don't think that way…

  89. 89
    1520sbroad Says:

    #82 – i spent about a month at my machine pissed off all day every day when we switched to 07.  I found a couple of add in type things that would at least change the menus to the old ones but none of them worked very well.  There is no classic mode.
    At the time we switched we had a guy in my office who was our one man think tank he almost had a melt down over that switch in Excel.  He had a ton of sophisticated models that he had trouble with for months because he was so programmed to use the previous version of Excel.

  90. 90
    crysball Says:

    LEI
    BOP,    LEI  had  previously announced  a J-V with  Hillcorp for  some of their  Eaglford   land  in Gonzalez County,   and  if recall  is correct  Hill has spud  spud 1  J-V welll  and   and  plans  to spud  a second   in  late  Nov. / early Dec./
    The  'scary'  thing  about   LEI  is    the  tunover  of  CEO's and CFO's and the    vagueness of  their  news  releases.
    They were supposed to    rework  several   Austin Chalk  P &A wellls    in Q3 …..but has all falled silent.
    They  do  not   evoke   an aura of credibility………..but have traded  in and out    successfully.

  91. 91
    Jerome Blank Says:

    MHR showing similar signs, ascending triangle, resistance right here at $5.09, support at $4.81

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    re 89. Hear ya, I'm not switching, but I don't think you can buy the old version anymore either. 

    Afternoon Jb, any more thoughts on HAL?

  93. 93
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    crys — it sounds like LEI is another one you follow closely.  From what I hear, it's a case of "Good Cattle, No Hat."  But if you can, could you keep us up on your thoughts there?  Thank you!!

  94. 94
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #92, good afternoon…HAL, updated the expanded 30 min for perspective on the NOV calls…right now, HAL looks really good, thinking it might try to break higher, if not, you could use the 20 period SMA support zone which intersects lower nearterm trendline as the line in the sand to take profits on the expiring calls… 

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    re 94, Exactly what I was looking for . Voted. 

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  96. 96
    AAA Says:

    elduque, re #80, I have been vocal here in criticizing Aubrey and saying I would never buy CHK, so let me respond.  The main problem I have with him is that he doesn't seem to respect the difference between a publicly held company and a private company.  Simply put, he confuses the company's treasury for his own bank account, plus he has installed a rubber-stamp board that doesn't seem to care either.  Tanking his own stock with a margin call was the sort of event that would get most CEO's fired for cause immediately.  Instead, he got bailed out by selling his collection of western "art" at a big price to his own company.  Even the worst of the Wall Street crooks would blush at a manuever like that.  It is convenient to blame the stock drop on Lehman, but no other CEOs made fools of themselves like he did and cost their shareholders bigtime in the process.  The episode was very revealing in his lack of risk management and sense of entitlement.  He also had side deals where he got a slice of corporate projects.  I see no justification whatsoever for that other than greed.
    I am not so naive as to believe other E&Ps have significantly better corporate governance, but at least they don't rub your nose in it.  You can get pretty much the exact same exposure with companies like RRC and SWN without the drama.

  97. 97
    redjack Says:

    Z…I have a unused license/install for Office 2003. Actually several. Be glad to give it to you.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    RJ – thanks much, she's on a call at the moment, will check. 

  99. 99
    andy Says:

    z – would love to hear nicky's thots today

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    Me too but I think she is traveling, will check. 

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Have to step away for a bit, back around the close. Market struggling to hold 1200 on the S&P. 

  102. 102
    irongate Says:

    Trading idea for a couple of day hold.  CLNE  WPRT
    I think there is some new legislation that is going to be introduced on Wed that might favor natty gas… plus Cramer is on his "Green Week" kick and is likely to mention both names which he loves.   fwiw

  103. 103
    bill Says:

    102 nice–thanks

  104. 104
    elduque Says:

    Thanks for the discussion on CHK. The rebuttal comments, explain why the stock trades at a discount. I will say I don't think there is any comparison between RRC/SWN and CHK. My wife says "you always have to have the last word".
    Everybody have a good evening.

  105. 105
    choices Says:

    T-Bonds took a real hit today, so say the start of a rout-surprisingly, Gary Schillings is pounding the table to buy bonds, says we are in for serious deflation-go figure-not sure how these guys get their guru reputations-Kass says to buy GM-way to play emerging mkts-heh

  106. 106
    choices Says:

    #105 -"some say the start of …"

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    Re 102 – thanks for that. 

    AXAS on the tape saying previous guidance for EBITDA and Production for 2010 was overstated by 15%.  

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    NFX on the tape buying Marcellus acreage from EOG. About $9,000 per acre before considering production and some drilled but not yet completed wells. 

  109. 109
    milepost_43 Says:

    102……WPRT been going sideways +-$18ish for 8 weeks….time for a MOVE…..I'm ready with Jan 20calls….

  110. 110
    blackgold39 Says:

    Z – pretty penny to pay for acreage on the NFX deal. They must be good and committed to the Marcellus.

  111. 111
    mimster90 Says:

    zman, thanks for the updated catlyst list with the yellow for new updates, help clarify my thinking.

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