06
Nov

Wrap – Week Ended 11/5/10 (In Progress)

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Housekeeping Watch: Surprised this site is still running. Please make sure to bookmark the backup site:

www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com

Market Sentiment Watch: Euphoric. A bit too much so for my taste. If you recall from the dire, doldrums of summer, most of the bullish market soothsayers were looking for 1,200 by year end. We're at 1,225. The economy remains in slow growth mode and I can't believe that changes in Congress and another shot of adrenalin from the Fed (now in the form of a $600 billion dollar IV drip) will make everything grow to the sky. I do think we are probably going to see higher highs though until we get some kind of tax cut extensions passed, probably at the tail end of the President's trip to Asia. But then you have to think that near term data will be only so-so and not rally-rally. 

To be continued Sunday ....

14 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 11/5/10 (In Progress)”

  1. 1
    skimo Says:

    In an interesting move, The Chartist has recommended going 100% invested on Friday. That is a major change as the account status was 100% cash immeiately prior. His recommendations are all basic materials and emerging markets.

  2. 2
    choices Says:

    Earnings Est
    Current Qtr.
    Dec 10
    Next Qtr.
    Mar 11
    Current Year
    Dec 10
    Next Year
    Dec 11

    Avg. Estimate
    0.41
    0.63
    1.29
    3.51

    Z, what is your view of EOG considering that they are now outspending cash flow, prices for assets proposed to sell are down, and they still have those fracking frac problems going well into 2011-do the consensus estimates above appear plausible-2011 is quite a jump in earnings
    thanks

     
     
     
     

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Choices will put  address in Monday's weekend mailbag

    Same for one emailed in set of questions. 

  4. 4
    choices Says:

    http://www.amconmag.com/blog/2010/11/04/the-future-of-bloated-defense/
    Here we go again-still spending to fight the cold war.

  5. 5
    irongate Says:

    ATPG out a few minutes ago http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20101107005093/en/ATP-Announces-Quarter-2010-Results-Operations-Update
    Lost $1.15/sh (est -.66)…. Revenues 102mln (est 122mln) 
    Production (in line with their 10/13 slide presentation) of 21.1MBoe/dy, Oil 77% of Rev
    I don't think that anyone was really expecting a good qtr here… but the shorts (focusing on earnings ) may have a reason to press.  Hopefully I will get an opportunity to get long.
    And don't forget tomorrow is another POMO day by our friends at the Fed.   http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html  Recent stats say that POMO days are good days for the bulls.

  6. 6
    andy Says:

    z – i remember the delayed reaction in WHX last time.  i may short more mon morn.  it goes ex div 11/17.  does that mean if u are short and cover on . 11/17 u are not responsible for paying the div or do u have to cover 0n 11/ 16?  thks  

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Andy – pretty sure you'd have to cover by 16th but don't hold me to that, anyone?

  8. 8
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EGY…has some very interesting charts…the P&F chart has a 5 box buy signal breakout, you don't see this very often, so there was quite a bit of buying pressure buildng up, I added a weekly for some additional perspective…there is a long wide triangle type pattern on the weekly, which I'm thinking could display the next potential area of resistance at about $7.25, you can see this intersects the topside trendline on the weekly…this resistance zone somewhat agress with the daily breakout pattern price target, which based on the pattern structure suggests as much as $8…
     
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280  

  9. 9
    occam Says:

    re 5 – The big news was about MC 941#.  This well was finally announce a few weeks ago, after being delayed several times.  The company initially announce it was producing in excess of 7,000 b/d, which in itself was very strong.   But the announcement today is even stronger:  "During October’s production cycle, the well averaged 8.2 MBoe/d (86% oil) with an October exit rate of 12.2 MBoe/d (86% oil)."
    Big cash flow and reserves increase coming from this.  Shorts might be uncomfortable, with 40% of float shorted.

  10. 10
    occam Says:

    should be MC 941 #3

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    re 9 – yeah, original forecast was 7 to 10,000 boepd, so that is a fat month exit rate. 

  12. 12
    PackMan Says:

    CONTEST:   EOG
     
    As I am late to the party, I highly doubt that this horse will come in.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Got you down for EOG

  14. 14
    storage units green cove springs fl Says:

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