05
Nov

T.G.I.F.

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Housekeeping Watch: This site is highly likely to go offline tonight at 5 pm CST. Don't panic! Please bookmark the backup site at:

www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com  

We hope this will not be the case but it is likely we will be using the backup site next week as we transition to a new host. My apologies for the inconvenience but we should re-emerge with a faster more reliable service. In the meantime, I will be posting and commenting as usual on the backup site. 

Market Sentiment Watch: A bit euphoric on the payrolls numbers. Today we have earnings from KOG and GST (see below) and I'll be looking in on a number names that report next week before the closing bell. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls for October came in at 151,000 vs +60,000 forecast
  • Unemployment rate was 9.6%, in line with expectations

In today's post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff  We Care About Today – KOG and GST Earnings
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings WatchZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,100
  • 98% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:

    • KOG – Adding (20) December $5 calls for $0.20 with the stock at $4.30. I don't normally trade in KOG options but the spread is small and I expect a positive call from them tomorrow. I own the common in an  overweight position in the ZLT. 

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $4,800
  • 20% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • BEXP – Sold the BEXP Nov 21 calls for $2.50, up 198%, with the stock at about $23.30. I continue to hold the common as a core and a trading position over the core in the ZLT. See site for details on core and trading positions in the ZLT.  

Commodity Watch

Crude oil jumped $1.80 to close at $86.49 yesterday in an equity rally induced rally. Crude is now approaching the year's highs and looks to have its sites set on $90. This feels like nosebleed territory to me. I expect a rather sharp pullback before a move higher into year end. Nothing goes straight up, especially not oil and espeically not when the US fundamentals are only marginally improved. This morning crude is trading up slightly.

Natural gas closed up $0.02 at $3.86, fighting off early weakness in the wake of another giant (for this time of year) injection into storage. This morning gas is trading flat. 

  • Tropics Watch: Nada.

Natural Gas Review


ZComment:  In fact, the giant storage injection was the 5th consecutive record supersized injection to storage. We need cold weather and we need it now.  While the country is cooling off (we had our second freeze of the season last night in the deep South) supply remains too strong and we are almost certain to slightly surpass the record high storage level set last year. 


Stuff  We Care About Today

Thoughts From The 3Q So Far

  • Get oilier, faster. This is not new but we are seeing more comments regarding not only targeting of liquids rich plays but also more reductions in dry gas directed spending.
  • As the preceding point, everyone looking at mid 2011 as the "gassy basins are held, lookout below on the gas rig count"
  • Many gassy stalwarts are lightly hedged and refuse to hedge (at least very much) given the current strip.
  • Bakken players are at or near all time highs. The popularity of this gang of a half dozen focused and another dozen with significant Williston positions remains high among investors. 
  • E&P joint venture activity seen rising in the near term
  • More management's expect a non US based acquisitions in the US. 
  • North American Service - prices still rising due to tightness but slowdown looms second half 2011. Given what will potentially be a record backlog of drilled but not completed gas and liquids rich wells and a continually rising oil rig count I don't expect NAM service to come crashing back to earth. 
  • International Service due to pick up, including Mexico
  • Offshore - US, permitting slowly occurring 
  • Offshore Global - deep and ultra deepwater pricing has been stagnant, thinking may be no shifting to rising rates as PBR contemplates stepped up activity. 

KOG Reported OK Quarter; Slow Going In The Bakken Is About To Speed Up


Highlights:

  • Only 1 of 3 wells I was looking for to be flowing was actually flowing at the time of the press release. That well accidentally landed in the Three Forks well in their Grizzly area (see map below) and IP'd at 507 BOEpd. At least this helps prove the Three Forks works in this area to the west of their traditional FBIR stomping grounds. 
  • The last two wells (on the FBIR) have averaged over 1,000 BOEpd for their first 60 days which is impressive given that are both in Dunn County and one of them is a short lateral well.
  • 2 nonoperated Three Forks wells IP'd at 1,385 and 1,374 which are excellent results for the area.  
  • Current production is 1,400 Bopd or 1,600 BOEpd if you count flared gas. 
  • No reiteration of the 2,500 BOEpd exit rate but that should be a fairly easy get if they complete a majority of the 5 wells now waiting on completion that are set for completion before year end.  
    • Three long laterals - Their first long lateral IP'd at 1,906 BOEpd
    • One short lateral - shorts have had an average initial production rate of
    • One completion in the Koala area 
    • KOG has a 41% net revenue interest in the 4 wells listed above which would result in initial net adds of a neat 3,000 BOEpd if historical rates rule. 
    • Assuming the current 1,400 BOEpd declines 10% from now to year end and the other wells come only late November to late December it's not hard to get to an organic exit rate of 4,000 BOEpd. This doesn't account for the fact that KOG will be connecting its early wells to both oil and natural gas pipelines during the fourth quarter which will tie in some of those flared equivalents in the potential BOE rate mentioned above. 


 

Conference Call: Today, 11 am EST


GST Reported OK Results; Yawner of an Operations Update


Dimlights:

  • First Eagle Ford test - waiting on completion - this is not a surprise but the press release says "late December" which is further out than I'd expected. 
  • Second Glen Rose oil well not yet spud. Hmmm, I must have misunderstood the timing here. Still no rate on the initial one but you don't brag about bad wells, even if it was a mechanical issue. 
  • Belin 2 - Lower Bossier test adjacent to the Belin #1 (IP'd at a whopping 41 MMcfepd in late 2008) will spud late November.   Not sure of the NRI here but probably around 40%. 

Nutshell:  Yawn, no hurry for me here though, I plan to wait out these two wells and if they are good, stick around for the 7 partnered wells in the Marcellus. 

Conference Call: Today, 10 am EST

Other Stuff:

  • SD's CFO resigned as the company posted 3Q results
  • SWN - new presentation will be available today, so far have two headlines calling for 2010 Capex of $2.1 B and production of 393 to 401 Bcfe; both of these are unchanged from prior forecasts. 
  • PXP Conference Call:  9 am EST. 
  • Next Week in Earnings: OAS, NOG, ATPG, AXAS, CRZO, BPZ, EGY, KWK, 

Odds & Ends 

Analyst Watch:

  • GDP - upped to Buy at Stifel
  • UPL - price target cut $4 to $50 at RBC
  • CLR target bumped $2 to $50 at RBC

150 Responses to “T.G.I.F.”

  1. 1
    skimo Says:

    PWE announced today and confirmed they will change to an E&P Company on or about 1/1/1, at which time dividend payments will change from monthly to quarterly. Didn't see any news about a divvie rate change but I expect it will change. 
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Penn-West-Announces-Its-iw-1615081421.html?x=0&.v=1

  2. 2
    skimo Says:

    1/1/11

  3. 3
    bill Says:

    posted earlier
    on sd:
    Good chance sd moves back to the 4's- Ebitda for q3 was only 13 m.
    Seems like every move they made backfired. Having oil hedges in a rising market, not having ng hedges in a lower market,having basis hedges that moved against them. The co2 plant coming online when it doesnt make sense to drill. They probably have a ton of operational issues i dont even know about.
    He is Aubrey lite, and im sorry for sliming aubrey. Aubrey has wriggled out of his mess with jv partners. Ward refuses to partner with anyone and sitting on 1,0 m of idle acreage assets.
    He hasnt made an outlook in 3 years and current outlook has cost and cap ex expansion without anything more coming out of the back end. IMHO Ward must go but ward wont go cause he is chairman of the bod so they have corp governance issues as well. I think they are gone in 12 months
    pxp released numbers
    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NjkyMDR8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — great summary of KOG.  Thank you.  One question, however, you state that there are 5 uncompleted wells (that could be completed prior to year end).  But in the PR, KOG refers to 6 already drilled and one to be drilled b/f YE.  Of those 7, they estimate that 6 (gross) could be completed.  What am I missing here?
     
    From the PR==
    Basin-wide year-to-date, Kodiak has drilled 10 operated wells (6.1 net) that have targeted the Bakken or Three Forks Formations. The Company now has six operated wells (3.5 net) awaiting completion, ,and  is drilling a seventh well (.95 net) and projects that of these wells, six wells (3.9 net) will be completed by year-end. This includes four Bakken and two Three Forks wells.  Additionally, to-date, Kodiak has drilled two gross (0.8 net) wells targeting the Red River Formation, one of which is on production and the second of which was non-commercial.  The Company is evaluating other potential producing zones in the second well bore.

  5. 5
    bill Says:

    Whatt did tph say anything about sd?
    They issued a fairness opinion telling the world the stock was worth 8 to support the arena deal..1 week after closing the deal , they cut it to 3 and cut my subscription for politely asking about change of opinion.
    So it tells you what fairness opinions are worth.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    re 4. Good catch, I should have been more clear. I took a look at the wells that were listed as WOCT on the last ops update and then again on this one, took into account anecdotal evidence of frac schedule slippage here and at other names in the Basin and I risked their schedule. I should have been more clear. But given what I presented, the net adds came out to 3,000 net BOEpd of adds (3,008 to be exact) and so my point is that they don't need all of the wells that may get done on or about year end to blow away the 2,500 BOE exit rate. 

  7. 7
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — not trying to catch ya… just trying to understand.  I think "risk weighting" the number of completions is SMART.  I should have figured out that was what you did.  Guess I just need to have things SPELLED OUT SLOWLY for me, first thing in the a.m.
     
    Going back for more coffee… think this SD conf call could go on for a bit….

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    No BOP, I should spell them out, reading back that's a bit confusing. Not bothering to be on the SD call, I guess my loss on figuring that mess out. Not in but if it falls over time to the $3 or $2 range I'll be working up an NAV. Can't believe your CFO buddy left. Is he pursuing other opportunities? 

    ROSE on the tape … didn't expect that one today, will read through and get back. 

  9. 9
    1520sbroad Says:

    #1 -I would bet that PWE keeps the payout yield the same – around 4-4.5%. That is in line with some of the other big trusts that are shifting to corp status.

    PWE has shifted production to about 60% oil 40% gas from a 50-50 break not that long ago. They have a ton of acreage up there and appear to have finally got their debt under control. I think they are one to watch going forward along with Arc up there in Canada. Both have the ability to shift 2011 drilling to oil oriented acreage

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dirk isn't pursuing anything yet.  He is going to be there until the end of the year.  Personal opinion… he just burnt out.  And his roots (and relationships) are still on the East Coast.  Don't think he ever established a permanent address in OK, mentally, that is.  I think he made a personal choice, in order to keep his personal relationships together.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    ROSE conference call is on Monday, yeah, that makes sense. These guys pulled this a couple of quarters back, but I think it was a Friday after the close for a Monday call. An IR 101 violation. 

    I see no real update from Southern Alberta Basin. 

    Eagle Ford update:

    20 Hz wells so far, about 3% of their current leasehold drilled on current spacing thinking.

    Huge upgrade to EUR guidance in the Gates Ranch area (about half of their 65,000 net acres) Old estimate 4 Bcfe, new estimate 7.2 Bcfe.  This could/should power the stock today. 

    New discovery area in other non Gates Ranch EFS looks good, still cleaning up. 

    Other

    Exit rate looks good taking divestitures into account.

    No mention of Niobrara. 

     

  12. 12
    zman Says:

     

    Don't forget to bookmark the back up site, just saw a slow refresh here and my host is holding my traffic on the site like the Sword of Damocles over my head. They tell me the site is too successful. Whatever pal. 

  13. 13
    ram Says:

    Congrats for being too successful!

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    re 13 = lol

    Front & Center Watch

    ROSE running early, not chasing, may punt remainder soon, valuation has looked fullish to me for some time. 

    KOG inching lower … don't think people get it yet, not a numbers of the past but a numbers of the near future story. Saw some crazy 20% down trades in the AH yesterday, silly. 

    GST – wake me up next quarter. 

    NOG and OAS report next week, should be good

    WHX – should report early next week. I've left almost a buck on the table at this point but do not care as I think I will get to rebuy in the mid to high teens.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    F&C Watch Continued

    SSN starting to wake up

    LINE going on $36, happily holding, no plans to punt soon

    NFX – watching for an exit on my $65 strikes

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – KOG

    KOG – Added (20) December $5 Calls for $0.20 with the stock at $4.24. See today's post for details on their quarter and operations update. Conference call today, 11 am EST.  

    Phat finger alert. I'm also the guy who just accidentally took 30 of the $7.50 strikes at $0.15. Always double check your trade before you hit confirm.  

  17. 17
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT saying to put JPM on your screen today… staying above $40 = good.  Also, he was saving any day-trades until after housing number…. but housing number now moved to 12:30…. weird.  He says BHO is keyed up to speak, wonders if there is any cause/affect there…

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    BHO could have used this payrolls number a month ago. 

  19. 19
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Noticed that EOG has announced significant overspend for them. Cap Ex around +3B over cash flow. Assets sales seem to be small relative to that gap. What would your voice of reason say about switching EOG to WLL at these levels?   

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Tom – I'm not doing that but its not out of the realm of reason. I own them both. Despite the cheap valuation on WLL it has had a run and I'd rather buy it lower on a group red day or week, knowing that as they prove up L&C in the near term and Starbuck in the longer term that it will make new highs. If your time frame is 1 to 2 or more years than the timing probably won't matter though. 

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    On GST call

  22. 22
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — me too.  Yaaaawn.

  23. 23
    john11 Says:

    Not sure anybody mentioned this…a little feature on EXXI's Schiller in Forbes.
    http://blogs.forbes.com/christopherhelman/2010/11/04/names-you-need-to-know-in-2011-john-schiller-at-energy-xxi/?partner=yahootix

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    GST 

    Eagle Ford Test

    Had trouble with hole integrity, will have a 16 stage completion on a 4,300' later, 100% WI, expect to complete late Dec.

    Glen Rose

    second well will have a slick water frac, different from first well … must not have liked the first well results. 

    Belin 1 holding up nicely – 5 comingled zones producing 7 mm/d, this is the one that did 41 MM/d IP and did well for a year before being recompleted. They will go back into the well for the Lanier Sand when the 5 zone deplete. Belin 2 mentioned in post.

    Marcellus – getting there. 

     

    Wow.  ROSE up 11%. 

  25. 25
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — oh, they KNOW there is oil in the GR… problem is, can they figure out a frac program that works.  Think there was a problem with frac fluid disappearing into existing fracs (and not stimulating the formation) in well #1.  But, they also may have used too few stages too… this 2nd GR test will be key.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    re 25. Was it vuggy?

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Wonder if they do microseismic to see what the fracs do in the #2 well. 

  28. 28
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Think it is part of the formation that has natural porosity… it's perm, that is the issue here.  There is definitely oil in the formaiton…. they know what from all the vertical well control that drilled thru the formation, targetted at lower horizons.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Hear ya, lots of post holes drilled in the area. Do you know if they have HAL on the completion? These guys aren't exactly of the "gang that couldn't shoot straight / keystone cops" variety as those deep Bossier wells are no easy task to get done so I would think they are not at all in over their heads technically. But, they do seem to have more than their fair share of casing/mechanical difficulties looking back in time.  

  30. 30
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OT:  BAC purchase at $12.00 (on "this whole mortgage put-back thing is overdone") now in anti-goat territory.  phew.
     
    Back to all energy, all the time.

  31. 31
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GST — have not heard good things about the head PE there…

  32. 32
    Geno Says:

    Although you do not typically short stocks GOK has a third quarter earning call coming up and they are getting very long on paying there field vendors and avoiding calls in accounts payable.  They release after closing Tuesday and there call is Wednesday

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    GST call ongoing …. must …. stay ….. awake.

    NOG breaking out, someone asked me about why this was weak a couple of weeks back and I think I said noise/profit taking. 

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    GST – no guidance yet. Budget and guidance will probably be on the year end call and then give guidance one quarter out. 

  35. 35
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Comments from Ole @ MS re SDRL. Raising price target ahead of massive fleet expansion. $35 to $38. Ole is expecting to be done on a more accretive basis. I am long SDRL. Aggressive balance sheet with good yield. SDRL is still the Aubrey of offshore.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    re 32. Interesting. 

    Thanks Tom – got your email too, thanks much. 

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    GST call over

    KOG call in 15 minutes. 

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    EOG – day three, selling slowing. How's that chart look JB? Going to go vote in advance. 

  39. 39
    Geno Says:

    One of my side businesses is seismic drilling

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Voted. You too can vote for JB.

    What is a darkcloud formation JB?

    His site is bookmarked in the links at upper right or you can access it here:

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    TGA at 14, wow. Nice call. 

  42. 42
    irongate Says:

    i gotta tell ya.   KOG is going to do whatever it is gonna do short term…. but your analysis of it is priceless zman.   Thanks!

  43. 43
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    You a Kogger, IG? 

  44. 44
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI — capitulation time for me.  Looks like no repeat of last yr's sell-off, post 2ndary.  Maybe this time, PCP holders figured out they make MORE money if they DON'T hedge.  Thems are smarts peoples, this time around, methinks.

  45. 45
    andy Says:

    geno –  i shorted some GOK   Keep us advised on situation  thks

  46. 46
    1520sbroad Says:

    #30 – BOP – check HRB if you want to get levered to the mortgage put back story. They have taken it on the chin due to their exposure via Option One. Pull some credit desk research from the last 2 weeks if you want some more data. their bonds 13s and 14s blew out huge and have come back nicely. Sorry for the OT.

    Watching KOG carefully…

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    re 42. TY. Did you see the piece on back of the envelop NAV of KOG?

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2010/10/20/wednesday-oil-preview-kog-earnings/

    KOG call starting now

     

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Geno – thanks for the weekend reading/thinking on GOK, nice idea. 

  49. 49
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    1520s — thank you for the OT info.  Sometimes, OT subjects help frame what is going on in the broader mrkt (and why energy gets smacked around). 
     
    I'm watching KOG carefully too… missed the 4.10 shares this a.m.

  50. 50
    mimster90 Says:

    SD watch out below!

  51. 51
    1520sbroad Says:

    that hrb story is one to watch imo

  52. 52
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Uh-oh… pulling the Weather Excuse out early.
     
    However, it does get cold, windy, and generally very nasty up there.  Makes Frac Crews very unhappy.  And you don't want unhappy Frac Crews trucking out to your well site….

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    KOG Call Notes 1

    Exit – 

    Working closely with pressure pumping company, but expect to see some weather delays, yada yada yada.

    Making gains on the per unit LOE, thinking they can make further reductions in 2011. If you start to transition from the realm of $7 per BOE to the higher $5s you are in rarefied E&P air. 

  54. 54
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — borrowing base upped to $50mm.  These guys must feel like they are rolling in liquidity now.  What a difference.  wow.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

     

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    KOG Notes:

    4 wellbores in each unit in the Bakken per unit, they expect to see multiple Three Forks wells in each unit.

    Koala – drilling a Bakken and a TFS test from the same pad. The TFS test will be 15 miles from BEXP's State 36-1 well which IP'd at 2,356 BOEpd in October on the far east side of Rough Rider. 

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    KOG Notes 3

    They are making it clear they are moving to development mode (less evaluation drilling, more production drilling). As this occurs look for costs to fall and EBITDA to ramp. 

    2011 plans – guidance in coming weeks after plans are submitted to the BOD. 

    3rd operated rig arrives in January …. what a difference a year makes … BOP, remember when we were pricing the cost of not taking the 2nd one, lol. 

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    KOG Notes 4

    Questions have shifted from trying to determine quality of wells, noting their 30, 60, 90 day production rates.

    Primary concern of investors has now shifted to execution. Lynn says they have frac dates for all six wells, HAL has always lived up to their commitments, it can slip a day or two or two weeks but HAL always gets to us.   

    In other words, be patient shareholders, it will happen. 

     

  59. 59
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    yeah… the Bad Old Days…. when having an extra rig was a LIABILITY.  Gots to say, Lynn played a pretty steady hand, through that process.  He was a Straight Up Guy with the services companies… when others were breaking contracts.  People remember this sort of stuff. 

  60. 60
    irongate Says:

    yes BOP… I was writing about it on another website when somebody sent me a private message suggesting I  try out this Zman website…   and i am most grateful to him/her.   But I can tell you that what I know about KOG pales in comparison to what you guys know about it.  Which is why I am here…   to rub shoulders with folks smarter than me in certain areas 🙂

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Lynn didn't exactly quash the concept of another money raise, did he?

  62. 62
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KEY BANC — gee… you guys coulda HAD the CREDIT FACILITY at KOG.  Ya BLEW it, guys!!  lololol

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    KOG Q&A

    EUR thoughts – comfortable in the 750 to 850,000 BOE range. That's big. That's a WLL type comment. 

  64. 64
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — i would totally expect another capital raise.  But this time, think he will issue fixed debt.  Probably in the bank term mrkt.  This will be an Equity Enhancer. 
     
    He said privately that he is not going to issue equity in the near future.  Lynn is a Straight Up Guy.  I believe him on this.  Debt, however, you will see this start to creep onto the Balance Sheet.  And i am OK with this… at this point.  He has his ducks in a row and his arms around the projects.  Getting hooked up to pipelines is bringing a great big SMILE to my face right now.

  65. 65
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    IG — ha!  Was thinking the same about you.  The furniture always gets more comfortable, when more Smart People enter the room and sit down.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    BOP – agree, balanced capital structure is good. I would not like to see another equity raise prior to that.

  67. 67
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    wow… haven't heard Lynn this calm, comfortable, and in control in a coupla years.  Enjoying this.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    KOG Q&A 

    Seeing a little more availability of ceramics.

    Pad drilling should help with efficiencies / costs 

  69. 69
    choices Says:

    FWIW:  I'm probably starting to sound like the prophet of doom but when the markets get crazy, i really start to look at the "other side."
    First link indicates things are not rosy in consumerland-no jobs, no spending.  The notes at bottom are informative.
    http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html
    The second link below provides some of the same analysis is has been provided on QE2 but the para second from last provides some thoughts on what could go wrong.  Again, all FWIW.
    http://agonist.org/numerian/20101104/qe2_sets_sail_on_an_inflationary_binge

  70. 70
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Weird BMO question on ceramics… or, is it just me.

  71. 71
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Have you seen anything that would cause HAL to cliff dive?

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    70 – sort of, yeah. 

    71 – no, was just looking at that, no news, market coming off bringing everything lower, including docking KOG again. 

  73. 73
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — just talking to HT about that.  He said that it's day- or swing-traders.  HAL wasn't participating fully in the rally this morning.  So, people jump off this horse to jump onto some other horse (today, it's the Financial Horse).

  74. 74
    choices Says:

    BOP-point (i) in referenced para in #69 may have some immediate relevance-I understand that the credit spreads in the PIIGS are starting to widen-are you seeing this?
    Thanks.

  75. 75
    cargocult Says:

    What did ROSE say to give it a 10% pop?

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    re 75. CC isn't until Monday. See comment 11. The pop is almost certainly the EUR upgrade on their Eagle Ford wells, that almost a double of prior thinking. 

  77. 77
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    choices — #74.  Yes.  Will try to get a little more color for you there.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    KOG call over. 

  79. 79
    cargocult Says:

    I'm taking a few protective Nov $25 puts for $.14 on ROSE.

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Market looks tired. Grabbing an early lunch. 

  81. 81
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    On the PiiGS CDS… Greece did an abrupt U-turn on it's improving CDS spreads on Oct 25th from around +660 bps and has been moving out ever since…. levelled off a bit on Nov1st and is currently around +850 bps.
     
    Ireland  and Portugal are also wider, at +580 and +440, respectively.
     
    Spain and Italy are looking much more stable, hanging in there around +230 and 180 bps.
     
    For comparison purposes, France is +75 and USA +41-ish.
     

  82. 82
    choices Says:

    thanks, BOP

  83. 83
    elduque Says:

    Kind of interesting re ROSE's big pop and the non existent movement in CHK, even though they are all over the play as well as others. DUH!!!

  84. 84
    milepost_43 Says:

     
    #41 TGA target raises..+10% today $14.15….. —

    Fraser to $15
    Dundee to C$15
    Canaccord to $C19

    today's white candle is entirely above the upper BollBand on 2nd day of BIG vol…looks like the BIG BOYZ want in……out of my Nov calls….waiting on consolidation…@ 15ish I hope to reload for Dec 15ish midQ update + 2 conferences….

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    re 83. Bigger players in the penalty box at the moment. Also, it's easy to pop a name like ROSE that barely trades. 

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    MP – you've been all over that trade. Nice job. 

  87. 87
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — fast money has left the room.  KOG is now free to roam the cabin.

  88. 88
    Jerome Blank Says:

    KOG…$4.10 to $4.16 continues to be the area to watch, I was a bit concerned yesterday that the technical crowd might be a short term problem with the daily structure developing at it was…so far today, KOG starting to look better, would like to see a supportive tail on the daily with a close above the 200 period on the 30 min at $4.17, if $4.17 starts to hold support, this would be a good spot for an aggressive long try… 

  89. 89
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    choices — spoke to one of my colleagues who is my Go To Person on all things International.  He attributes the widening in the PiiGS mainly to people being "done with that trade."  So, just sold before their Oct 31st fiscal yr end (to get them off the books) and moved onto the Next Big Thing.  He does not see that spread widening as anything — in itself — alarming.

  90. 90
    crysball Says:

    Z, BOP, & all KOGGER's
    KOG Pad  drilling  may help  drilling economics, but will make  completions  lumpy………..this  might present  some  opportunities  for  playing  Quarterly earnings   in 2011 with trading shares…………..is  there a subscriber  on the ground in   the Baaken  to do do  driveby's ………….or  connected with  HAL [Wyoming]  on  pad  completions ?
    Note  that  no mention was  made    of  the  2010  year end exit rate   in the KOG  CC  (either  mgmt. reaffirmation or    Q & A).
    WARM  FUZZY  feeling  about   mgmt……………..unlike  that   with    SD, GST,  MHR…………integrity  means  something  to  KOG.
     

  91. 91
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z; I don't know if you have enough interest in CXPO to throw out a catalyst list next time you do that. The Chinese interest I think bears watching.  

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    Bizarre day when KOG, CXPO and SSN are my biggest percentage up performers AND the rest of the group is red. 

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Other than ROSE of course. 

  94. 94
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #38 EOG…30 min chart still looks a bit troubling, the consolidation triangle forming on the 30 min favors movement in the direction of the trend, starting to look like its actually breaking a bit below the consolidation as I write, so for swing traders, new longs might be a bit early…
    Zman, thank you for the kind comments and thanks all for the continued votes, it's much appreciated…
    EOF 30 min updated….
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
        

  95. 95
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EOG, that is, for some reason, I can't post the link, but it's updated

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    From a post last week:

    Catalysts on the near term horizon are and Eagle Ford well and three east Texas middle Bossier tests

    Will put it in the Catalyst List on the next update with a little more color. 

  97. 97
    skimo Says:

    92, you didn't know? Its single digit midget Friday! 🙂

  98. 98
    choices Says:

    #89-thanks again,BOP

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB, did you get a chance to look at NFX. Did I already forget that you did? Long week man. Good job on the charts. I try to look over a big chunk of them on the weekends. 

  100. 100
    choices Says:

    #95-that seems to be the story for EOG this week, JB-thanks-will vote now.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    WHX likely to be out with their numbers after the close today or Monday. Again, looking for a number less than $0.70.   Should send analysts into pure hate mode. 

    Housekeeping Watch Update: As things now stand, the site will be offline at 5 pm CST today as per prior notice. I am trying to reach an agreement but its like pushing a string at this point, not a lot of control. I will be in touch over the week end with an update and will be up on the backup site:

    http://www.zmanbackup.wordpress.com

     

     

     

  102. 102
    Jerome Blank Says:

    HAL…interesting 30 min consolidation channel, trading at the lower end for aggressive buy consideration. Currently, support/resistance framed at $31.25 to $33.25…if using stops, consider below the lower channel support zone…
    Looking at NFX… 

  103. 103
    tomdavis12 Says:

    JB: On your site if you misspell the words to validate or validate before you even type the words, does that screw up the voting proceedure?

  104. 104
    1520sbroad Says:

    couple of interesting slides in the new SWN presentation in the appendix.  Some pie charts on the cost breakdown to drill a well in the fayetteville, and water usage in Arkansas. (Useful for us folks that like to look at charts, graphs, pictures instead of raw data…)  No other really new data other than the CAPEX for 2011 at $2.1 billion.  

  105. 105
    Jerome Blank Says:

    NFX..on a P&F buy signal in X's, ripping…I'd prefer to already be in this, it's a close your eyes and buy, or better, thinking to wait for profit taking consolidation and buy a bit lower  for the next leg up…the P&F price objective, (for reference only) is currently $90…  

  106. 106
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #103, tom, I'm not sure, but I think the words need to be typed exactly for the vote to register…

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    re 105, thanks, looking thoughts on resistance. Owned the common for a long time now, in the Nov $65 calls at the moment as well. 

  108. 108
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: In honor of movie quote Friday and my favorite Caddy Shack movie. Billy, Billy, Billy, Billiton come play with our Bakken beauties. We won't reject you like those NASTY Canadian fertilizer guys. Hears hoping for some Merger Monday activity. 😉

  109. 109
    cargocult Says:

    EGY feeling the love today.

  110. 110
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #105 NFX, added a weekly chart for perspective on resistance…thinking that the major top in the zone around $67.50 might trigger profit taking…

  111. 111
    Jerome Blank Says:

    NFX 30 min added to assist with timing the calls…

  112. 112
    crysball Says:

    Single Digit Midgetlaqnd  ,……………..EGY
    While  I would  defer to JB…………EGY  looks   'VERY STRONG'    TECHNICALLY   going into earnings   on Tuesday  and CC  on Tuesday….which is not typical..
    EGY  Institutional ownership    is 71.7%  of  total shares  outstanding [just 56.7million]…………..there  are  very  few  shares  shorted [less than 2%].
    perhaps  JB  could do a  P & F  technical  read ?
     
     

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    Thanks much JB, more than I was looking for re NFX!

  114. 114
    irongate Says:

    look at this… http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=13 This is ONE MONTH!!! i sure wouldnt want to own cos that a dependent on stable sugar, cotton, or corn prices.

  115. 115
    apbd Says:

    CONTEST, VTG
    Better late than never.  My small offshore driller.They, like myself and Rodney
    Dangerfield " don't get no respect."
    apbd

  116. 116
    choices Says:

    Have not seen this posted but Howard Weil ups ROSE price tgt from 27 to 38.

  117. 117
    cargocult Says:

    irongate-nice chart.

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    Got it down apbd

  119. 119
    snuhart Says:

    109 , 112   EGY
    Earlier this week EGY 's 4th attempt take out the 6.20-630 area was successful 
    This late week s action suggests to me that there s no real resistance until we get to the highs made in mid-08 and the again in early 09.
    Based on my read chart obj is 8.50-9.00.  I hope
    if JB will give us the benefit of his judgement

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    All in all a pretty good week, I'm here but working on internet stuff. Knock if you need me. And bookmark the back up site. 

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    Today's post is up here:

    http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com/

    Eld – I changed the style just for you

  122. 122
    snuhart Says:

    backup  site says I  Have wrong username

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Back up site wouldn't know your username so you should just put in your username and an email address to comment. That site will be open to the world. 

  124. 124
    cargocult Says:

    any chance we are at support for EOG?

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    Snu – I just logged in as brandnewfake guy with the admin account. So the only confusion will be if people decide to post next week under assumed names … like Ram posting as Sunshine and so on and so forth. I do apologize for the inconvenience of all this… we had hoped to make a seamless transition over the weekend but that does not appear to be possible at this time. 

  126. 126
    snuhart Says:

    thanx

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    LINE looking to break $36, no plans to sell soon.

    WHX – so I left a little over a buck now on the table, looks like a pretty similar buying crescendo before the last couple of distribution announcements. Looking for a big pull back here over the next week to 10 days. 

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    Insult to injury watch:

    UBS downgrades SD. 

  129. 129
    ram Says:

    Hey, stop picking on me.  If you didn't know better, you would think ROSE would be taken out soon.  Was the new information enough to push up 15%

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    No pick intended, just trying to come up with an example.

     

    Re ROSE, dunno, good question, seems like it might be. Nobody every takes an EUR up like that. 4 goes to 4.5 Bcfe? Sure. 4 goes to 5.0 Bcfe. Occassionally. 4 goes to 7 and change. Unheard of. And it puts them in the high of the range of players. I have to think they need to really support that with more color on the call Monday. 

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty. Big rally into the close. Thanks again all. Have a good weekend. I'll either be here or on the other site. 

  132. 132
    john11 Says:

     You too Z, have a good wk-end.  Btw…KOG filed a $250 mil..mixed shelf late in the day.

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    re 132. That makes good sense actually, good to have on hand. Maybe a debt deal Monday.

  134. 134
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    john — thanks for the heads up on the KOG mixed shelf filing.  They said they were going to do debt… maybe it will be a registered deal at some point.  But, it is always good for a company to have options… especially if KOG can buy acreage in the 'hood at good prices. 

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    re 134, wow, great minds … LOLOLOL

  136. 136
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Monday = ATPG… let's hope they don't whiff too badly… Sure would like to hear they got those next 2 MC permits.  Not holding my breath for those tho… hopefully, we will get more clarity on their "30,000 to 40,000 b/d 2010 exit rate." 

  137. 137
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    wow, z… that is the NICEST thing you have ever said to me.  Thanks!  🙂

  138. 138
    zman Says:

    Awww, and I was thinking the reverse. Of course, I've seen your resume unlike the other folks here. 😉

  139. 139
    zman Says:

    WHX announces 59 cent distribution. 

  140. 140
    zman Says:

    At last check the Street was at 70 to 72 cents

  141. 141
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #138 — yikes!  Blush-City happening here… better go have that two-martini closer that (was it jivey or choices?) mentioned yesterday.  Sounded good to me!
     
    Have a great weekend all.

  142. 142
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — GREAT CALL on WHX.  You vs Street Analysts is turning into an Unfair Competition.  Way to go!

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP – I'll see you all … either here or on the back up over the weekend/next week.

  144. 144
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    Great call Z!

  145. 145
    zman Says:

    Thanks PKC! Hopefully the analysts will cast it in super sell light next week and I can buy back around 17

  146. 146
    RobBanks Says:

    Great call on WHX, Z.  RJ was at 71 cents, Wells Fargo at 74 cents. Those are the only ones I see.

  147. 147
    zman Says:

    Still here

  148. 148
    zman Says:

    Saturday morning test

  149. 149
    choices Says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/05/business/global/05bribe.html?ref=edward_wyatt
    site still up

  150. 150
    zman Says:

    Saturday afternoon test

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