Thursday – Oil Review and Gas Preview Plus Other Stuff

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Market Sentiment Watch: The market seems unsure of what to make of QE2v600B. Most pundits are saying the debt and equity markets are saying the "news" is pretty much backed in to current levels. I think we'll be surprised to the upside between now and year end on the equity side. There is still quite a bit of cash on the sidelines.

Ecodata Watch:

  • Jobless claims came in at 457,000, more than the 445,000 expected 
  • Productivity came in at 1.9% vs 2.0% expected

In today's post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff  We Care About Today- CHK, UPL
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,200
  • 100% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $3,400
  • 0% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Long Term portfolio)

Commodity Watch

Crude oil edged up $0.79 to close at $84.69 yesterday after the EIA reported a somewhat bullish report. This morning crude is trading up another buck (see price comments below).

Natural gas closed off 3 pennies  to close at $3.84. The Street looks slightly high to me for today's injection number. This morning gas is trading up 4 pennies. 

  • Tropics Watch:  Nada

Natural Gas Preview: I'm at 60 Bcf for today's storage number.

    • Last Week: 71 Bcf Injection

    • Last Year: 29 Bcf Injection

    • 5 Year Average: 33 Bcf Injection

    • 10 year Hi: 64 Bcf Injection

    • 10 year Low: 27 Bcf Withdrawal

The Street is at 64 Bcf.


Oil Inventory Review

ZComment: Rapidly improving distillate storage situation ... just in the nick of time. Anecdotal evidence suggests increased freight, and the data would seem to confirm as exports remain tame. This time of year, heating oil and diesel product pricing have greater influence of crude pricing than gasoline so chalk one up for the bulls. I continue to think that prices however are largely a function of the decline in the dollar and the marking up effect of all commodities (save natural gas which is uniquely immune to this phenomenon) and as such, think that it should at best hold in the $80s with moves unwarranted and subject to rapid pullbacks that will punish oil centric equities more than the the initial run up. In other words, I prefer sideways action through year end but think that we may see a run on $90 now that big round numbers like $80 and now $85 have been breached. 

Stuff  We Care About Today

Earnings Brief: CHK Reported Strong Growth; Long Range Getting Oilier Than Previously Expected


  • Production Guidance:

    • 2010 - range broadened a bit to the downside but essentially unchanged at 13% YoY on the mid.
    • 2011 - unchanged with mid point calling for 18% growth
    • 2012 - boosted to 18% on the mid point

      • liquids production in 2011/12 60% growth each. 
      • as such CHK sees liquids comprising 20 to25% of total company production by YE12, which represents at minimum a doubling of their liquids exposure.
      • This represents a large increase to liquids guidance from less than 1 month ago and a substantial reduction in gas directed activity.
  • Other Stuff: 
    • Reserves increase to 16.2 Tcfe as CHK has taken to quarterly release of estimates, F&D cost of $0.97/Mcfe.
      • Big Potential: Total unrsiked un-proved reserves are seen at 141.5 tcfe from natural gas and 82.4 tcfe from the oilier plays including the Eagle Ford, Permian and the Niobrara in 2 Rockies basins.
      •  Interesting that they see the single largest potential source liquids rich reserves to be in the Niobrara, both in the Powder River and DJ Basins,... bigger than their huge acreage position in the EFS.
    • 140 operated rigs now; this will fall sharply by mid 2011.
    • CHK commented that it will ramp down the Haynesville unless gas prices recover
  • Expects JV to develop the Niobrara to be frmmed by 1Q11
  • 2011 hedges are strong.

Nutshell: As expected, not a lot of operation flavor since the analyst day was only weeks ago. Hopefully the call will provide further flesh on some of the nascent stories including the Niobrara. I don't hold the name but there is no denying that a change in natural gas thinking here will have ripple effects throughout the gassy E&P realm. It will also be interesting to listen to them field calls on service costs and their ability to meet the heady new oil guidance.

Conference Call:  Today, 9 am EST

UPL Reports Strong Quarter


  • 2010 budget remains unchanged at $1.45 B. 
  • Wyoming - spud to TD fell to 14 days in Pinedale, vs 18 a year ago
  • Marcellus - also falling, first nine months this year 15.5 days, more recently 10 days. 
  • Guidance reaffirmed at 18 to 20% YoY for 2010
  • Hedges: just over 50% hedged at $5.83.

Nutshell: Another quarter of record production growth. I don't own it but continue to watch this one as it is one of the gassiest names out there along with SWN and RRC and will likely be a go to name for me when prices rebound. 

Conference Call: Today, 11 am EST

Other Stuff:

Other Calls Today: 


North Dakota Auction from 11/2/10 Stats:

Reporting tonight with calls tomorrow:

  • KOG
  • GST

ZEB Contest - If you're new or if you just never submitted an entry for the next takeout candidate. Offer good now through March 31, 2011, winner gets credit for a free quarter on the site. Only one company per subscriber, first come, first pick. Please put CONTEST in the comment along with your ticker to participate. Currently we have:

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • EOG - Goldman Sachs removes EOG from Conviction Buy List
  • CHK - Susquehanna ups target $6 to $23.
  • CHK - RBC cuts to Sector Perform

258 Responses to “Thursday – Oil Review and Gas Preview Plus Other Stuff”

  1. 1
    jy Says:


  2. 2
    zman Says:

    CHK call getting under way

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    New CHK presentation:


  4. 4
    snuhart Says:

    contest gst

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    CHK Notes

    Niobrara JV by 1Q11.

    New liquids prospect JV (the unannounced prospect) by mid 2011.

    New CFO was brief, Q&A starting

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    CHK Notes

    CHK now has 100,000 net acres in the Bakken, did not get it from Anshutz

  7. 7
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (said in a whiny voice)…. You forgot my APC piiiiiiiiiiick….

  8. 8
    bill Says:

    chk at 22 is cheap, imho

  9. 9
    bill Says:

    oils look good today, dnr reported stock looks to move 3-4 % mmr over 17, pxp looking higher
    I like chk flipping strategy ie jv partners

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Can't believe our Fed has endorsed encouraging INflation as a policy.  That said, it's one of the scenarios under which oil prices go UP. 
    Milton Friedman vs. the Fed – Friedman would never have endorsed a higher inflation target as a way to stimulate the economy.  WSJ   http://bit.ly/bX0TU7  

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    CHK Q&A

    Question Re 2012 uptick in oil – Bakken not in there, the 2012 uptick is greater confidence in volumes out of the Eagle Ford and they are confident they will have a partner in the Niobrara. Big change in one month's time. 

    Color on Williston – early, historically not done well acquiring in the Basin, points out to previous attempts to acquire but they failed. This is just acreage, no production on it. Probably won't get to a size that needs a JV, it will be an oil play. It's not "fringe stuff", this is different from other peoples' stuff …. hmmmm.  Deal not closed yet, probably put rigs on it in the Spring

    Granite Wash –  thinking talk of communication there is frac hits between the stacked pays. From what I've seen its early to say here, but seems to be one horizontal per zone. 

    Pricing question: 2011 $4.50 and 2012 $5.50, they've boosted the differentials slightly to be more conservative on pricing assumption, took at a look at historic differentials.

    Williston Basin – 100K net acres … "small" … don't know where this goes yet, Aubrey sounding like it just won't get big enough for them to partner up. Won't talk if it is Bakken, Three Forks, Lodgepole … my bet is it is Montana since he keeps saying Williston …



  12. 12
    snuhart Says:

    re 10   Also going up IMHO, :  Hard assets, securiities a lot of other " stuff " too, don t forget commodities – grains and softs.

  13. 13
    bill Says:

    aubrey "heard other companies having problems getting wells frac'd or whatever excuses… lol"
    Love his arrogance

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    CHK Q&A

    Called EOG's comments yesterday re trouble getting fracs done an excuse. Wow.   Basically says, not a problem for us, we'ver very integrated and we're huge and we step to the front of the line for Services. 

  15. 15
    bill Says:

    chk will open 2 % lower, dont know why

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Bill – among the early risers = Bakkens. BEXP at all time high, WLL going back there. KOG tonight, suspect their production looks like a hockstick this quarter, next, etc…  OAS has fought off a number of downgrades in last 2 weeks, production should be very strong there and may force those downgraders to take up their targets if not up their ratings. NOG should be more than impressive with the quarterly release as Basin activity continues to go up and attract new players as per CHK. 

  17. 17
    ram Says:

    Was Aubrey saying that EOG investment dollars should come his way?

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Bill – probably noise, could also be a shift in the pricing that causes their expected FCF to fall slightly in 2011.


  19. 19
    zman Says:

    re 17 – Very astute comment. 

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    BTU popping early too, sitting out of coals at the moment, waiting for dust to settle on the quarter, will go back in either there and in WLT. 

  21. 21
    elduque Says:

    z- any thoughts on GDP's nos

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    CHK Q&A 

    2009 – 90% capex focused on NG

    2012 – falls to 35%

    45 of 140 rigs now focused on liquids.  Aubrey says take the same ratio for rigs as dollars – so flip it over to a big oil operation. He also sees growth in his total rig count. 

    Also comments LOE on $/Mcfe is going to fall more than people expect. 

    VPP  and JV – Street dislike. CHK calls it nutty and so do I and I won't argue the point but it's real $ and the reserves come off the books, as they say re the VPP, it's like having any other royalty owner. 

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Eld – nos?

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    BEXP closing on $23. 

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Let me know if the new format for the ZLT spreadsheet is good or not. Was trying to give a little more flavor on my holdings there. 

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    S&P at 1210.

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ZLT new format = good

  28. 28
    1520sbroad Says:

    #10 – heard on Bloomberg radio this morning as I was driving in – Fed policy aimed at "stoking inflation".  You don't hear that but once in a lifetime.

  29. 29
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    1520s — it makes me shudder… but, then again, the first home I bought had a "special teaser rate" mortgage of 10.75%…. so, guess I remember the "Bad Old Days" of inflation…

  30. 30
    zman Says:


    BEXP – Sold the BEXP Nov 21 calls for $2.50, up 198%, with the stock at about $23.30. I continue to hold the common as a core and a trading position over the core in the ZLT. See site for details on core and trading positions in the ZLT.  

  31. 31
    elduque Says:

    re 23 – earnings last night- conference call at 10.00 am this morning

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Eld – OK thanks, haven't looked at yet, will shortly.

    CHK call done in record time. 

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    OK, all contest adds in place, sorry BOP, gotcha in this time.

    Thanks for 27, anyone else?

  34. 34
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Heard On the Street… EXXI 2ndary and PCP buyers say this morning:  "Thank You, David Griffen!!"  

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    re 28/29. I dunno, every time there's a recession the govt tries to get you to spend your way out of it. Not exactly sound from a personal finance standpoint. "I know you are worried about losing your job at the dairy Jack, but if you'd just go out and blow some of your magic beans it will be better for everyone". 

  36. 36
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    "Griffin"… but any way you spell it, still come out "B-A-D C-F-O"

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    SSN waking up, potentially on Aubreys unabashed comments about confidence in the Niobrara. Not having completed a single well but with 400,000 acres in hand. 

  38. 38
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Trying to stoke INflation is Juvenile Policy from a Juvenile Administration.  Pathetic, actually.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    BOP – re 36 – Well iff you don't have anything nice to say …. please say it here! Inquiring minds need to know!

    Reading through GDP, but will be on the UPL call at 11 am EST. 

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Tempted to add a trading position back in CHK as it moves countergroup. 

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Tom – RIG thouhgts? 

  42. 42
    elduque Says:

    Re CHK – I really don't understand what keeps the stock down. Fantastic earnings with great potential. Partnered with corporations that are leaders in the field in their own right. Some how there is a disconnect between the price and the potential for the co. Maybe it is as simple as below $4 gas.

  43. 43
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — if David Griffin is a paying customer, I'll shut up…

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    re 43, nope, keep talking. He's a big boy, he could defend himself anyway. 

  45. 45
    VTZ Says:

    RE 38 – The Dollar sellers got the all-clear yesterday to make the move down to 75 before 72 yesterday. 72 is really the last line of defense before an all out assault on the USD. I know lots of people are calling for a bottom in the dollar but I'm not sure how you can say that within the existing monetary policy framework.

  46. 46
    bill Says:

    balt earnings presentation

  47. 47
    1520sbroad Says:

    John Q. Public needs a job to buy stuff with money he doesn't have – even if it is cheaper for him to borrow that money he doesn't have.
    Back on topic – no mention of New Brunswick in the Apache release this morning – I will sift thru the transcript when ti comes out later today.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    LINE – new 52 week high, still $5 short of the all time high … that will not last. 

    NFX – similar chart actually, good to see this often stock performance laggard pick up and run. Good things Bakken, Granite Wash, good to decel in the Woodford. 

  49. 49
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Ha!  He HAS no defense.  Like to hear him try, tho.

  50. 50
    bill Says:

    34..David Griffen has as  much power as lame duck democrats in congress. His boss the ceo is also chairman of the bod and whatever shiller wants, shiller gets, imho.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Crude through $86. Not much reason for this aside from China and the dollar. And some increased Mid East home front demand. Oh and Mexico falling off. And Angola growing more slowly than anyone thought. And less Russian crude on world market as they open the taps on a new pipeline to China. Seriously though, much more comfortable with oil in the low $80s or mid $70s. When it pulls back and that time is approaching, the hangover will be worse for the stocks than the party, even if the hangover only lasts for a few weeks and it rallies even higher into year end. 

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Re 50. Which is not all bad as Shiller is not a lame duck. Very smart, mucho respect from me. His eyes on the much longer term prize.

  53. 53
    snuhart Says:

    re 40 ,42  I bot the recent bulge. I m concerned there s something we don t know  –something negative , prices usually don t lie. I m concerned when it s one of two red marks on my ebtire screen. with the dow up 130 and peers performing well.
    Please tell me I m wrong- thinking about lightening up

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    EOG – treating bottom fishers to a head fake. Maybe that's the flow over to Aubrey land. 

    Getting on the SFY conference call for EFS color, also always like to hear their Lake Washington update, nothing like stack pays up against a salt dome and a cup of coffee to get you going in the morning.  Besides, if they echo EOG's EFS comments they will tank. 

  55. 55
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Schiller wanted hard cash… and I applaud that (ref:  stock price since 2ndary).  However, Griffin is tasked with sane balance sheet management and low-cost capital raising.  He goofed… not once, but several times.  Including this last one (ref:  stock and PCP price since 2ndary).

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Snu – can't tell you that. Hard to tell if there is something we don't know but the old gripes re Aubrey are still there. 1) never saw an acre he didn't like unless it was in east OK, 2) overspends cash flow 3) too much debt 4) won't get the next big JV, monetization, VPP done – but he always does etc. 

  57. 57
    zman Says:


    Will have 9 to 12 wells waiting on completion at year end. This cut their 4Q volumes and their year end exit rate. Sounds familiar. 

    Costs and lead times rising for pressure pumping. 

    Stock up 60 cents at the moment. 

  58. 58
    snuhart Says:

    Z Thanks re 56. I always wondered if he still suffers from credibity hangover as a result of that margin selling a few years ago. I never followed that story  too closely , just knew there was a problem

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    KOG – Reporting tonight for tomorrow:

    Thinking volumes top 1,550 BOEpd for 3Q tonight (up about 50% sequentially and over 100% YoY).

    Thinking we get results on 2 and maybe 3 more wells.

    Reaffirmation or maybe a bump to the current 2,500 BOEpd 2010 exit. 

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    re 58 – he does suffer from that, probably a permanent thing, but as RMD commented last night, he's the best landman out there. 

  61. 61
    AAA Says:

    BOP, Re 55, of course I agree.  You would think he would have waited until after the Fed meeting to do any deal.  They low ticked their own stock.  Morons.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    WLL looking to make a run on its all time highs too. Several of the better names in the group are in this position. Oil is about $55 below where it was when many of these highs were set and gas was about $10 higher back then. But in the Bakken names, the stories are so improved they are overcoming this.  When you then look at a monthly chart of a name like HK you can plainly see the impact on those who werent oily, haven't bought into the liquids rich movement or didn't hedge well. LINE is nearing that same peak without the Bakken but has been 100% hedged to the downside with oily price upside to their benefit.  

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    Re EXXI – I still have to think he has an asset buy in the hopper. 

  64. 64
    AAA Says:

    Z and others are far more in the know about CHK and Aubrey but for me the company buying his collection of western art junk for a huge price was the final straw.  I know a lot of these companies are not exactly models of corporate goverance, but CHK stands apart in the CEO not appearing to understand the difference between a publicly held company and a private company.
    It's not like you can't get pretty much the same exposure with other companies.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Then I guess you don't want to know about the gold cufflinks and chains that Schiller wears, lol.  

  66. 66
    ratberto Says:

    Re QE2 – All somewhat OT, apologies.
     The World Looks at Obama After the U.S. Midterm Election
    -George Friedman
    Read more: The World Looks at Obama After the U.S. Midterm Election | STRATFOR
    "A foreign minister of a small — but not insignificant — country put it this way to me: Obama doesn’t seem to be there. By that he meant that Obama does not seem to occupy the American presidency and that the United States he governs does not seem like a force to be reckoned with. Decisions that other leaders wait for the United States to make don’t get made, the authority of U.S. emissaries is uncertain, the U.S. defense and state departments say different things, and serious issues are left unaddressed."
    Our friend (and Rangers fan) Richard Fisher's 10/19 speech in NYC:  
    Rangers, Yankees and Federal Open Market Committee: One Game at a Time
    "The key is to remove or reduce the tax and regulatory uncertainties that act as an impediment to businesses as they respond to increases in final demand. I think most all would consider this to be a far more desirable outcome than being saddled with a bloated Fed balance sheet."

    Last paragraph:
    "Before concluding, I want to return to the TIC data I mentioned earlier. Yesterday, I asked a trader of sovereign debt how he interpreted the recent numbers. His answer: “We are still the best-looking horse in the glue factory.” It was a witty reply. But it was disturbing. This is America. Whether we are Ranger or Yankee fans, Texans or New Yorkers, we have been blessed to live in the most prosperous nation on earth. We cannot now accept simply being the “least worst” among major economies. We must be better than the rest.

    This cannot be accomplished by the FOMC alone. Whatever we do with monetary policy will be of limited utility, if not counterproductive, unless it is complemented by sensible fiscal policy that restores confidence and puts the American people back to work. We are not glue-factory horses. We are thoroughbreds. It’s time to put us back on track."

    Ben's Washington Post Op-Ed piece, 11/4:
    Last paragraph:
    "The Federal Reserve cannot solve all the economy's problems on its own. That will take time and the combined efforts of many parties, including the central bank, Congress, the administration, regulators and the private sector. But the Federal Reserve has a particular obligation to help promote increased employment and sustain price stability. Steps taken this week should help us fulfill that obligation."
    1 = The world perceives an empty suit.
    2 = FOMC can't solve this alone
    3 = "We've done our part"
    1+2+3 = have fun for the remainder of your term, Mr. President.

  67. 67
    AAA Says:

    Re65, did the company buy them for him?  Anyway, he is on my list too.

  68. 68
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    AAA — totally agree with #64.  For me, it was using company stock as collateral for outside ventures.  But I also go way back with CHK… into the early 1990s.  So have watched them almost blow themselves up (several times), then pull it together… was willing to give them the benefit of having learned from near-death experiences.  But THEN the Margin Call….
    So, one less ticker to have to worry about.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    SFY Comment:

    During the months of July to September – we only achieved 3 of 7 fracs they had firm scheduling for in the Eagle Ford. 

  70. 70
    AAA Says:

    OT but interesting action in the POT/BHP/AGU/MOS group this morning after Canada blocked BHP's bid for POT.

  71. 71
    jim bob is my jesus Says:

    NICKY- any levels here? April closing highs SPX ~1217 act as intra day resistance?

  72. 72
    Popeye Says:

    No NG #'s today?

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    67 Bcf. Not pretty.  Storage now 1% over last year and 10% over the 5 yr avg. NG still up 4 cents. 

  74. 74
    skimo Says:

    BOP, OT but any color on at CIGX release that appears to be due next week, but not listed on their web site?

  75. 75
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    skimo — no.  But their quarterly releases are rarely cause for financial joy.  However, will be looking for any color on how inVentiv is going.

  76. 76
    zman Says:



    KOG – Adding (20) December $5 calls for $0.20 with the stock at $4.30. I don't normally trade in KOG options but the spread is small and I expect a positive call from them tomorrow. I own the common in an  overweight position in the ZLT. 

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    SFY – doing a good job of talking about the benefits of adding a dedicated frac crew in South Texas, big timing assurance and costs savings. No puts for me. 

  78. 78
    elduque Says:

    re Aubrey and his margin calls. The main reason why the stock cratered well below where he ever thought it would, was the Lehman blow up and the resulting margin calls on London based hedge funds. My portolio got cratered as well.
    I  would rather own a stock that management is committed to with their own funds.

  79. 79
    elduque Says:

    As an aside I think that POT is a bargain here relative to AGU and MOS.

  80. 80
    VTZ Says:

    RE 70 – OT, but huge decision (that I agree with by the way). No benefit to Canada whatsover to allowing the deal to go through, and probably a net negative to a Canadian champion.
    They all caught a bid after the bid for potash. I think the ag space is a place everybody should have a position.

  81. 81
    bill Says:

    I suggested selling Balt the other day. After todays call & guidance, i have changed my mind.
    * Cash cost  will decrease in q4 by 1400 a day
    * Revenue should be higher by 3 k a day as capes have improved, therefore margins will expand 4400 day Oct actual +nov/dec futures)
    * More operating days than q3 as all the ships are now delivered 800 vs 550 days
    * New credit agreement means they wont have to dilute shareholders now 150m from 100m. I think they want the stock closer to 15 before they float the shares
    * durs , well respected analyst supports it and was happy over 16 cent divy
    * my model says they could pay up to 49 cents in q4 if everything holds but i think they move it up gradually and try to smooth it out so maybe 24 cents for q4. Too early to say if they just let the divy bounce around..at gmr they tried to smooth it, so the big unknown is 2011 rates
    Balt model is now levered one vs original model of no debt so more risk to spot rates.

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bill, was going to ask, thanks to Iron Gate too. What's that cash cost as a percent of the 3Q number. It's breaking out here.  

  83. 83
    bill Says:

    78 >I  would rather own a stock that management is committed to with their own funds.
    it was his own funds, aubrey got wiped out. Thats why he sold his wine collection , art , and his 95 chevy pick up truck.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Obama says open to extending "Bush tax cuts" to all incomes. 

  85. 85
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Have not been on RIG CC yet. Will report back after. For now results a little better than expected, mostly from lower costs. Surprised by first 1/2 hour weakness. Did write off $116M with Macondo and .06 due to retirement of debt. $87M covered by insurance. Total debt increased $1.4B (debt issue) to $12.8B. No approval for dividend frm Switz yet. Will want to see from Q&A any color re BP. Still would consider these guys in this space if you need exposure.  

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the color time, just haven't read it yet. Thinking the run it has had meant it needs a big beat and not a little bit better than expected beat. 

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    But it's certainly running now. 

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    When does ATPG report, thought it was supposed to be today.

    Off the SFY call, interesting from a getting the job done then and now perspective, much improved operationally, definitely no short trade for me there. 

    UPL call starting. 

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    UPL Call Notes:

    We are the only company that talks about margins and returns before production growth. Not quite true but close. 

    Break even cost: $2.39 / Mcfe – fully loaded all in corporate cost. 

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    How to listen to conference calls:


  91. 91
    bill Says:

    q3 10.4 in rev, cash cost about 5.0, next qtr rev about 17.0 m cash cost about 6

  92. 92
    jiveyjr Says:

    re: 88 ATPG…Bloomberg says 11/5 est.  so I really don't know…
    the inability to find out that kind of info. is consistent with what I've heard about these guys and heir communication with the street and investors…
    nevertheless, everything else I see about them I like and if they honk everyone off with their inability to communicate, I"ll try not to hold that against them and just add modestly to my position.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bill – can you translate to cash cost per day. Trying to get a grip on how big that 1,400 lower comment is. Thanks, still listening to UPL or would go do my own math,lol. 

  94. 94
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OT:  CIGX.  Think we are going to see a "done deal" capital raise sooner, than later.  But I am not selling a single share here.  Think we are close (month or so?) to hearing about a national roll-out of the CigRx product by inVentiv.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    Thanks Jivey, I usually use Briefing.com to get the dates as the Yahoo calendar has gone wonky of late. 

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    NFX jumping nicely, mulling taking profits in the $65s I took post earnings that were then a long shot… probably overstaying my welcome at this point. 

  97. 97
    VTZ Says:

    Z – I forgot to give you a "booooo" for not including SU in the other stuff today. Nice move there today on earnings.
    -Realizing excellent cost savings forecasing double the savings from 400m to 800m annually
    -Asset sales are almost complete and dispositions have been towards the high end of their target
    -They did comment on the wide light to heavy as a negative impact to earnings but that was expected
    -Cash costs per barrel stable and lowered (albeit with super low AECO NG prices) due to operational performance and increased rates (against high fixed and low variable costs)

  98. 98
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jivey — lol at your ATPG comments.  Bought some more trading shares after Fed decision y'day.  But have NO IDEA how badly they can mangle their next earnings release.  We shall see.  No firm release date yet… that I can see.  Odd.  But, I've seen worse.

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    BOP – care to add to or challenge my KOG thoughts in #59 above? Thanks. 

  100. 100
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #99 nope

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    VTZ – I deserve it. Every quarter I call all the companies out there and give them their release date and every quarter they ignore me and schedule 10 calls at the same hour 😉

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    re 100. Well that's just greeeeaaaattttt. 

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    WLL working on taking out the 2010 high.

    UPL – no regulatory problems out west. 

    Costs keep coming down. When people say there is no gas company out there that is profitable they should look at these guys. 

  104. 104
    Dman Says:

    Gosh, busy day: 100 posts already. I've been too busy watching silver crash upwards.
    Reagan budget director David Stockman peers into his futurescope:
    Warning: it's a tad depressing.

  105. 105
    milepost_43 Says:

    TGA reports record production…$12.64 now
    – Record third quarter production of 10,138 Bopd, (Egypt 7,601 Bopd, Yemen 2,537 Bopd); October production 10,589 Bopd;

    – Record third quarter funds flow of $19.5 million ($0.28/share), a 55% increase over third quarter 2009;

    – Third quarter net income of $8.8 million ($0.13/share), compared to a $1.6 million loss in the third quarter of 2009;

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    HAL in recovery room after governmental mugging. 

  107. 107
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Getting back to my EOG indigestion. Would you agree that the execution risk (fracs) is just more common to EOG at this point and not an industry wide difficulty from all the CC's you have heard. If that is the case then they should be in the penalty box until they can solve that problem. So its 3mo minimum. If you can come up with a range where you think CFPS should attract value guys, that would help me to raise some cash while I am waiting for them to get out of the box.  Thanks.  

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    EOG falling on off, again, sitting back and letting it fall, will add more lower. 

  109. 109
    bill Says:

    robry had this week at +68 next week +55

  110. 110
    VTZ Says:

    RE 104 – SLW!!! MY favorite stock of the past 2 years 🙂

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    re 107 – not ready to say that yet, no. 

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    UPL Q&A

    UPL – you didn't confirm your prior 20% guidance. They didn't say it because they didn't because they are in the budget process and the board has not had a chance to comment yet. They are in no way baking away from prior 20% and 20% growth for 2011 and 2012. 

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    Tom – working on a CFPS range

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    re 109 – thanks. 

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    NOG taking out all time highs, broke $20. 

  116. 116
    bill Says:

    pxp bot oil puts at 55 to protect downside, they are getting all the upside

  117. 117
    cargocult Says:

    Re 104: interesting insights by David Stockman. Now that the election hype is over a few folks are willing to explore just how few options the govt really has. In reality manufacturers shipped the means of production to China years ago in order to tap the endless supply of cheap labor. We kept reinvesting our capital in the means of destruction but those weapon systems don't produce anything marketable to consumers. Lets see, China produces, US consumes. Since US and China are joined at the hip the Chinese need to keep loaning their earnings back to us until their own domestic needs outweigh our own. That time is not far off.

  118. 118
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    cargo #117 — Pretty much lays it out there.  yep. 

  119. 119
    choices Says:

    #104-Thanks, Dman.  Depressing, yes, but unfortunately, he nails it.  No, say again, no politician will address these problems.

  120. 120
    Dman Says:

    CXPO setting the world on fire: up 0.35%  !!

  121. 121
    ram Says:

    Site is very slow.

  122. 122
    ram Says:

    Great, now fast.

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Ram – not that I see, anyone else?

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    Ram – I think it's probably just your browser. Maybe time to drop it and re open. 

  125. 125
    Dman Says:

    Cargo – eventually someone will have to do something, but things will get nasty before then and probably go downhill from there.  I saw a really good case in another Minyanville article for introducing tariffs on goods from countries with non-floating exchange rates. It included a remarkable analysis of just how pathetic the supposed benefits of "free trade" with currency-pegged countries really are.  I mean, common sense always said that exporting productive industries and jobs while retaining "consumption" was a one-way ticket to penury. But it was useful to see a concrete analysis . I'll look for the article in a moment.

  126. 126
    ram Says:

    Now it's slow again.

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    Thanks. Not for me Ram, try rebooting that browser. Is anyone else having slow site trouble. 

  128. 128
    skimo Says:

    No trouble today site fast using google chrome.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    CNBC going over some CHK data points

  130. 130
    Dman Says:

    WLL – trying to sneak off while nobody but Z was looking.

  131. 131
    Dman Says:

    Site very quick today (using Firefox on a Mac).

  132. 132
    elduque Says:

    Yes, I am from time to time. It sort of like my heart rate, depending on how large my positions are.

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    KOG – was up small now flat pre call. 

  134. 134
    zman Says:

    Thanks Ski, Dman.

  135. 135
    andy Says:

    BOP  = any thoughts on KOG's little swoon pre-earnings, as all the other bakkens doing well.  i bot a little trading piece at 4.30 a little while ago., cause i can't see any bad in this report, but maybe something

  136. 136
    dij Says:

    WLL all time high at 110?

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    re 136 $112.42

  138. 138
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    andy — i am debating whether to add a KOG trading piece today… or tomorrow morning, post-earnings release, but pre-conf call. 
    Wondering how the stock will react when they figure out the YE exit production rate could be as high as 4k b/d.  Depends on getting those completion crews (which KOG says "no problem now")… but still need to see 'em drive up in trucks to the sites.

  139. 139
    zman Says:

    re 138 – thanks much BOP – added my trading piece today on options and in the common just after the last secondary so am set. Gave myself a little room on options in case they figure out how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. If they post a 3Q production number like I project they will then it should get some positive notice. 

  140. 140
    Dman Says:

    Here's that article about the wonders of free trade with China:
    One issue he doesn't really get into is why such an obvious catastrophe was allowed to unfold over decades. The answer lies in who (in the US) benefits from offshoring production to China and in the  eagerness of those beneficiaries to recycle part of the loot into election funding, guaranteeing the "free trade" caper would be allowed to continue. 

  141. 141
    zman Says:

    New guys, be sure to pick a contest ticker. 

  142. 142
    VTZ Says:

    RE 140 – The consumer benefits. Shareholders benefitted. Walmart was allowed to happen. The western world demands the cheapest prices for all goods and that wish was granted. Think of all the products that are essentially disposable because people demand the cheapest product. 
    Shop at your local grocery store, toy store, clothing store, etc.

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    Zman's Energy Brain is now the proud owner of 2 of these:


    IBM X335 Dual Intel Xeon 3.2 Ghz, 2 GB, 2x 73 GB HDD's

    We'll be self hosting out of Austin in about 2 weeks. 

  144. 144
    Dman Says:

    V – the article details just how miniscule the benefits are to "consumers", even setting aside the question of how one can "consume" without ever, you know, "producing" anything.

  145. 145
    elduque Says:

    That is great.

  146. 146
    zman Says:

    re 145. Should be better reliability as I went with a host that'll cost me 10x per month but has a spotless track record. There will be little excuse if we go down unless they have power problems and then its some damn gnawing squirrel's fault. The second server will be set to take over should something happen with the primary, as well as being a test box for me to play in. 

  147. 147
    Dman Says:

    Z – how much bandwidth do you need to self-host?

  148. 148
    zman Says:

    WLL en fuego. 

  149. 149
    elduque Says:

    Z- have you heard of any of the gassy cos. talking about increasing prod. Seems to me most of them are in the curtailing mode. GDP said most of the acreage was HBP and that they were going to spend capital in the Shelby trough and Eagle Ford and like CHK expected to be more liquid in the future. A common theme.

  150. 150
    zman Says:

    When I say self host I mean I own the servers, it's still in a server farm, no idea but they have a big pipe (T1). My plan entitles me to more GB per month than we have every used. What has been slowing the site down is hit counts and the fact that our page is on a shared server with other sites. You get a DOS attack on us or one of those and the whole thing starts dragging. We've removed the middle man by shooting my current host (soon) and going with my IT guy in Austin. If we see slowness we'll tag the responsible IPs. Anyway, should be faster and more reliable to be the only web page in the box. 

  151. 151
    zman Says:

    Eld – only names like UPL where the breakeven is so low and they aren't growing faster than they planned but taking excess cash flow and banking it instead of outspending. Most are cutting back. At some point that will show up in the data. 

  152. 152
    West Says:

    http://ir.conchoresources.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=211775&p=irol-eventDetails&EventId=3402408    ….CXO cc address, for those with an interest in why the Permian Basin remains one of the hottest plays in the US…..Looking for SD to get top money for their PB assets that they will probably  announce tomorrow….XEC and CXO have premier positions in the Delaware Basin with mutliple pay zones that respond well to new drilling and completion techniques. CXO looking for 20% growth in production next year and hire an additional 100 employees , they are now at 400…..EGN just completed another property purchase in the southern Wolfberry for 75 mill for 10k acres with proved reserves of 7m and prob of 18m boe. Watch for an acceleration of the independents selling to public companies especially in the the older Sprayberry trend where the better capitalized cos will rework these wells and deepen these to the the Wolfcamp and Strawn formations. Also a lot of this production is on 80acres and HBP so I would also look for horizontal wells in between existing production if horizontal Wolf works in that area of the basin…………………………………..Niobrara, On REXX's call  interesting to note that back in August they said that they were not doing any additional buying in the area until they had a better understanding and some results from current drlg. In their cc this week they said that they had purchased 5 mill $ in the Nio play . They also are going to drl due north of the Herrington Farms on the southwest side of the Silo Field instead moving to the nw side of Silo. REXX has about 20k ac right in this area and if you listen they said that they had a discovery in this area that previously not had any Nio production. Sundance has 2200 gross acres in adjacent sections to the south and east of the Herrington well. We are probably a month away from well results here, but they are already selling oil from lease which says that there is live oil in the fracs that is producing from the un-fraced well in a virgin reservior. I continue to like REXX and SDCJF in this play……..Sinking back to the bottom….

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    Market just drifting sideways last 21/2 hours. 

  154. 154
    zman Says:

    Heard that re REXX West, good point. Aubrey sounded and read like the Niob was the next big thing. 

  155. 155
    Dman Says:

    V – well done to hang on to the SLW. I've been doing a lot of trading the silver stocks, but since they only go up, I would have done better to just hang on! Trouble is that whenever they make improbable-looking gains (like today), I always want to sell. There have been pullbacks, but usually only 1 day before resuming the upward crash.  If this is just phase 2 of the metal bull, things are going to get very crazy.

  156. 156
    Dman Says:

    #150 – got it.

  157. 157
    Dman Says:

    Looks like someone's figured out that WLL is cheap & maybe some mo-mo types are gunning for the high.

  158. 158
    zman Says:

    Please bookmark this site:


    I have a feeling we will be there much of next week. 

  159. 159
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — Teddy Bear Cam is jammed on this one today.  There should be good news to come out before the end of this year… and i think the stock rings in the New Year with a $5-handle.  But what it does today, tomorrow morning pre-call, and post-call.  Just don't have the visibility.
    I'd change the batteries on the TB Cam… but don't think that's the problem.  Lots of moving parts… but way more "good" than "bad," methinks.
    Stock sold off recently on a HF rumor that Lynn was fixin to issue more stock.  Just don't think that is the case.  At all.  But that was the selling pressure.

  160. 160
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP – Given that it is now Nov, they should be able to provide more clarity on the exit rate, not sure they will but it would seem like they could. I think he would be a bit overzealous in hitting the equity market again so soon. Other people sit on small revolver balances for longer than um, a few weeks. I'd think he'd do better to get production up markedly, something you have noted they will be it either at the end of the year or early next year and then sell equity. At $6+

  161. 161
    irongate Says:

    WSJ reporting BHP now considering oil and gas acquisitions over $10bln.   perhaps DVN APC EOG NBL NFX

  162. 162
    Jerome Blank Says:

    ATPG…from here, ATPG reverses back into X;s on the current buy signal at $15.50, major support now at $14.45, aggressive intraday long trys at $14.75-$14.90…thinking longer term swing target $17… 

  163. 163
    zman Says:

    Thanks IG – did not see it, did they express a preference for oil over gas or vv?

    Thanks much JB.  Do you have a resistance level on BEXP? Assuming that 112 is resistance on WLL. 

  164. 164
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — excellent ATPG update… i'd go vote for you, but did it already today.  thank you!

  165. 165
    zman Says:

    JB – I also think the NFX chart may be of interest to you. Not considering selling the stock but am thinking to lighten options either today or tomorrow as they are near month and suddenly alive but still well out of the money. 

  166. 166
    Jerome Blank Says:

    BEXP…the weekly technical pattern and the P&F structure suggest a swing target of $25-$26, the shorter term price objective is already exceeded, but looking at the 30 min consolidation flag, it sure looks like BEXP is going to punch higher, intrday support at the gap… 
    Thanks much for the votes and kind comments, it's greatly appreciated…

  167. 167
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    LOL…. just saw this… does the WSJ subscribe to your site, z?
    (ref:  comment #43 from Tuesday.  ha!!)

  168. 168
    irongate Says:

    APA on conf call guides 2011 production to be 'well into the double digits'. MS said this morning in a note they expected high singles (so i am told). 
    and no preference (oil or ng) mentioned from BHP

  169. 169
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — just spoke to one of their largest institutional holders… they aren't selling here, so don't know who is.  Just fyi.

  170. 170
    zman Says:

    re 166 – thanks much. 

    e 167 – LOL.

    Thanks IG

  171. 171
    Jerome Blank Says:

    KOG…we need good news soon..for short term purposes only, not thrilled with the roll over off the lower bull channel line, strong support at $4.10, and it's also breaking below the redrawn 30 min triangle,  We'll see if buyers come it at $4.10-$4.16…charts updated

  172. 172
    zman Says:

    KOG – not concerned on that front, bet it's just rumor mill on a possible offering. I will say that if Lynn posts another great quarter, talks about using the revolver now that they have it and then pops a deal that night, that I will be irritated. Goes to the who fool me once thing….

  173. 173
    Dman Says:

    BOP, the WSJ pinched our double act!   The cheek of them.

  174. 174
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — pretty funny, eh?  😉

  175. 175
    choices Says:

    Dman's article above has me completely preoccupied, not that i have not worried about the same points contained in the discussion before but it was very detailed, well organized, written by someone who is very knowledgeable of the situation and the track record of our "system."
    These markets now are eerie-the Fed wants inflation, maybe they will get hyperinflation (Weimar, Zimbabwe come to mind), the Fed does QE2, and, as predicted, dollar collapses, gold, silver, oil soar, other commods as well, what sort of "economy" will we have if gold goes to $1650-$2000, oil again well over $100-not sure.
    No one ever accused me of being an optimist and please excuse the old Marxist saying:  "history repeats, first comes tragedy, then farce."  My problem is I never know which phase we are in in this repeating historical cycle, tragedy or farce.

  176. 176
    bill Says:

    >.Looking for SD to get top money for their PB assets that they will probably  announce tomorrow
    152 ward likes to hoard, you think he is ready to lighten up?

  177. 177
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    "tragedy or farce" is kind of like the definition of recession vs depression (your neighbor loses his job vs. you lose your job).  If it's happening to you, it's tragedy.  If it's happening to them, it's farce.
    We are doing this to ourselves.  And the Chinese think it's funny.

  178. 178
    Dman Says:

    Choices, the author of the piece,  James Kostohryz, has been largely absent from Minyanville for the last 6 months but suddenly is writing a whole bunch of thoughtful essays. Here is another one I found interesting:

  179. 179
    RobBanks Says:

    z and bop – wasn't KOG's projected 2500 bod 2010 exit before the recent acquisition that added 500 bod?
    Oh and z, I have Citi's recent LINE report with $40 PT. Not that it says anything we don't already know.

  180. 180
    zman Says:

    Rob – the 2,500 boepd would be pre that yes. So "upping" it to 3,000 would not be considered an actual raise.   Thanks re LINE. 

  181. 181
    crysball Says:

    Have  Dual Intel Xeon 3.2 Ghz, 2 GB, 2x 73 GB HDD's   in my  Dell  Desktop  workstation………..it  is a fantastic perfromiming and highly reliable  processor,  Am assuming  you hav 2 hard drives  for  backup [striping] redunance.
    Chinese  have  outnegotioated  the  US  from  Day 1, and are laughing all the way to the bank.
    Z& BOP
    Voted  by  adding   KOG options  and some  additional trading  shares  on  fade  going into  earnings.

  182. 182
    zman Says:

    Stepping out for 20 min

  183. 183
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    crys — wondered whose paw snagged those tasty KOG shares.  Nice snag!
    I asked Lynn if the 500 b/d that came with the Peak properties was included in his 2,500 b/d 2010 exit rate projection.  He said "no." 
    Depending on when and how many of the wells they have already drilled are fracc'd before YE, could see 3,000+ b/d  and the Peak 500 b/d on top of that.  So, could be as high as 4,000+ b/d.  It comes down to timing… (but doesn't it always). 

  184. 184
    RobBanks Says:

    4000 bod would be stunning!

  185. 185
    jiveyjr Says:

    ATPG doing the happy dance….

  186. 186
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Rob — it's not out of the question… especially after you add in the Peak barrels, yes.

  187. 187
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jiveyjr — ATPG… you added some trading shares recently, didn't you. 
    heh heh heh. 

  188. 188
    jiveyjr Says:

    re: 187…yes…will add more if they get people shook up on their call. 

  189. 189
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OT:  because I occassionally like to pick up a large rock and bash myself in the head, i bought some more CIGX this afternoon.  The thought here is that they announce that a 2ndary was done at XX price.  I am guessing it will be done with the current shareholder base, so they won't want to crush the stock by doing it at much of a discount.  With the equity raise behind them, stock rallies into the end of this year (and beyond, but that is a continuing story).

  190. 190
    choices Says:

    Thanks, Dman-I will try to read Minyanville more often altho I'm not sure my blood pressure will take it.  Previous article by Stockman was particularly authoritative, he was budget director under Reagan and if memory serves, I believe he left over the huge defense spending ordered by Reagan-he has been railing against deficits and debt ever since, and coming from a Republican, he points out the mindlessness of the "no new taxes, not now, not ever" mantra-at some point, we are going to have to decide to pay for our wars-if we do that, my guess is we will have far fewer wars.

  191. 191
    zman Says:

    re 181, greater and yes, total of 4 hard drives. 

    Bakkens all happy, except KOG and that I'm not concerned of. OAS, NOG, WLL, BEXP moving well or into new highs. CLR, the expensive name in the group, lagging. 

  192. 192
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    choices — just a little something on Stockman… he sure didn't HATE debt and deficits when he was at Blackstone (ref:  Republic Steel… fastest bankruptcy filing, post-high-yield-offering in history).  Or at Collins & Aikman (did some really unethical balance sheet manoeuvers there, prior to Chapter 11).  Stockman is smart… but his history is more than a little tainted (in my book).

  193. 193
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (#192 — I have "Stockman Issues," so please ignore me.  )

  194. 194
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Sent over from HT… kicking off the lastest leg of this rally…
    from WSJ…WASHINGTONThe Federal Reserve is expected soon to start allowing healthy banks with strong capital levels to increase dividend payments, according to people familiar with the matter.
    Regulators are expected soon to issue guidance outlining the standards banks must meet to increase such payments, these people said.
    Many banks have been in a holding pattern as regulators across …

  195. 195
    zman Says:


    If this site is down in the morning it's because I hacked off my host. We will be up on the backup site, do make sure you have book marked it just in case.


  196. 196
    AAA Says:

    Stout sounds good.  Martinis tomorrow night though.

  197. 197
    elduque Says:

    What color will the backup be in ?

  198. 198
    Dman Says:

    Choices – oh, you meant the Stockman article. Well, I guess he knows how the various cogs in Washington interact to keep the whole machine moving … toward a cliff. 
    As an aside, Obama has now reaped the reward for his spectacular achievement of alienating both the right and the left, who normally can't agree what planet they are on let alone what time it is. I didn't give him enough credit: only some kind of genius could manage that.   

  199. 199
    RobBanks Says:

    KOG earnings out.
    "Crude oil revenue accounted for approximately 98% of the total third quarter 2010 oil and gas sales, and crude oil constituted 95% of produced volumes in the third quarter 2010."
    That's a big change from something like 85% oil.

  200. 200
    zman Says:

    Eld – how about chartreuse ?


    On a phone call, will look at KOG in a bit

  201. 201
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — quarter looked OK to me.  7 wells to be completed b/f eoy… wow.  That will raise the production run-rate a smidge. 
    Next thought… how fast do they get to 10,000 b/d rate?  And what are they worth at that point???

  202. 202
    zman Says:

    KOG financial – light to the Street on revenues, good volume growth to 1,380 bopd but light to my number of 1,550 bopd. EPS of a cent vs 2 cents expected, EBITDA essentially in line.

  203. 203
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    crys — i am going to guess you will be happy happy tomorrow, with your KOG purchases today.  If not, it's just another buying oppy…
    I think KOG $5 by end of year… and — gasp — $10 by next summer.

  204. 204
    mimster90 Says:

    How does KOG move their oil from their wells?

  205. 205
    zman Says:

    re 204 – decreasingly by truck, increasingly by pipe. 

  206. 206
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — what do you think a "flowing barrel" is worth in the Bakken these days?  Actually, that's kinda tough to answer… have to deconvolve the value due to production from the value due to land… guess you could load in all the pure play Bakken Kids and regress them to find what a flowing barrel and an acre are worth.  Just thinking out loud…

  207. 207
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ATPG reports on Monday, before mrkt open.  Conf call at 11 EST.
    Cool.  Love it when they announce then hold the conf call well after open… makes for some attractive confusion sometimes.

  208. 208
    RobBanks Says:

    ATPG to announce before market open on Nov 8

  209. 209
    RobBanks Says:

    That BOP, too quick for me

  210. 210
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Rob — only b/c HT pinged me the info… so, i had an assist on that one!

  211. 211
    zman Says:

    Re 206, good question and it's murky to separate  – I can give you acreage but it varies a lot as per that link on the site this morning shows. As you know, not just geographically but also dependent on size/contingousness.  I plan to take a whack at it for the morning post just taking the straight up Bakken guys (KOG (close enough) OAS, NOG, BEXP).

  212. 212
    RobBanks Says:

    Yeah, I don't have a HT.
    So for KOG with 1400 bod exit at Q3, plus 500 from PEAK, plus 7 wells, wow – 4k bod year end exit seems entirely possible.

  213. 213
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Rob — shhhhhhh…. we don't want to let too many people in on that little secret.  😉

  214. 214
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    caveat… need to look at the NRI of those 7 wells… otherwise the numbers look too big.

  215. 215
    RobBanks Says:

    Good point. They look to be in the 41% area. Yes/no?

  216. 216
    snuhart Says:

    z  what s the record # of posts  in one day ?

  217. 217
    crysball Says:

    Is   deconvolve   a word?
    You missed your  calling as a a  'CREATIVE WRITER' and  teller  of Short  [but good] Stories.

  218. 218
    zman Says:

    KOG with an accidental Three Forks well at Grizzly area. Commenting that it derisks the area for TFS. Otherwise, slow going on completions, thought they'd have 2 wells down the #14 well and the next well on that 4 well pad. 

  219. 219
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    64% before royalties… royalties are — what, z — 21% or so?  (can't recall off the top of my head, know KOG has better terms on the Rez than other players).  So, around 43%, i'm guessing.

  220. 220
    choices Says:

    Had to step out-#192, understand, BOP,he does have history, however he has cogent arguments now, maybe he just sees a parade and is trying to get in front of it-no one in DC ever said consistency was a virtue, maybe hypocrisy is-I doubt, however, if many GOPers will ever listen to him on the tax mantra-it is too politically expedient.  Let's see, where do the demos stand on steps to  reduce deficit and debt, oops, not sure, not clear, let's just move on, nothing to see here-that is politically expedient as well but it is not working very well for them.

  221. 221
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Depending on the timing of completion and production rates (of course), i can get to 4,000 b/d even before adding in the Peak barrels.

  222. 222
    snuhart Says:

    z- What s the record # of posts in one day ?

  223. 223
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    choices — yes, so true.  If there really is a fire in the theater, it matters not, who sounds the alert.  Problem right now is, too many people don't believe there is even smoke in the air (even though their eyes are watering and they are starting to cough).  Denial is an attractive option… especially in the popularity contest we call "elections."

  224. 224
    ratberto Says:

    Dman, 198 Agreed re Mr. President.  He has no friends in the Congress, he has no friends abroad, the Fed just cut the branch off behind him…
    …I bet he's got one lit right now; a kind soul would send him a carton of CigRx

  225. 225
    zman Says:

    re 216. I forget, 274 rings a bell. 

    GST on the tape too, bottom line small beat (ex items) on EPS, and on CFPS. …

  226. 226
    zman Says:


    1st Eagle Ford test – waiting on frac

    2nd Glen Rose well not yet spud??? They have said they would not disclose #1 well results until the second well is done. No change here.  

  227. 227
    zman Says:

    GST press release = snoozerific. 

  228. 228
    RobBanks Says:

    BOP did you see this? Maybe I missed the post.

  229. 229
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Rob — thanks for posting!  Had not seen that.
    Btw, John has put on about 75 lbs or so, since that picture.  tee hee hee 😉

  230. 230
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GST — 2nd GR well… guess it doesn't do much good to drill 'em… if you can't complete 'em. 

  231. 231
    zman Says:

    re 229 – yeah,  its the Captain Kirk to Denny Crane effect. 

  232. 232
    zman Says:

    re 230 – Not even spud yet. 

  233. 233
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I think one could make an entire career, out of being disappointed in GST.  It's all about the EF acreage position.  If they can't prove it up, someone will prove it up for them.
    Bunch o' Blind Squirrels, if you ask me.  sheesh.

  234. 234
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #231 — BINGO!!  lol

  235. 235
    zman Says:

    re 234 or he's doing his impression of a human post stack depth migration. 

  236. 236
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    SD — CFO Dirk Van Doren just resigned….

  237. 237
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #235 — is that an attempt at a little GEOPHYSICAL HUMOR, z???  Quite erudite of you.

  238. 238
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    For the record, I am a big fan of Dirk's.  Knew him when he was just a little, High Yield Squirt back in his old GoldmanSachs days.  Think he cut his teeth at BearStearns… a place that used to be known as the Ultimate Jungle on Wall Street (survival of the fitest)…   until they blew themselves up.

  239. 239
    bill Says:

    sounds like he was made to walk the plank by the real idiot ward

  240. 240
    bill Says:

    Sd is playing games with hedges. i knew they would have at least 100 m loss on the oil side
    There is no way they had 77 m gain on hedged gas volumes, so they cashed in oil hedges to make operaating results look better. Maybe Dirk didnt like this mickey mouse crap
    >he company recorded a net loss of $67.2 million ($144.9 million unrealized loss and $77.7 million realized gain)

  241. 241
    bill Says:

    headline number was they made 300 m–hmmmm During the three-month period ended September 30, 2010, the company released a portion of the valuation allowance against its net deferred tax assets in the amount of $456.4 million.

  242. 242
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dirk was a highly-ethical guy, back when I knew him and worked with him, fwiw.

  243. 243
    bill Says:

    sd down 56 cents in after hours
    heres the one and only number to watch

    Senior credit facility


    they out spent cash flow by at least 300 m, which means they have their back up against wall.
    With oil soaring, their 2 b in oil hedges is underwater by another 100 m

  244. 244
    skimo Says:

    Schwab couldn't trade EXXI cp yet. when I explained that I had no trouble setting up a trade with the EXIXF  symbol with my other brokerage account he actually got a little feisty.

  245. 245
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — thank you for your running commentary on the SD results.  There are an awful lot of moving parts there.
    My guess is that Dirk just burnt out.  And at heart, he is not an Oklahoma Boy…

  246. 246
    elijahwc Says:

    Bill , SD just did a another private 250mil cvt.  They have a few shareholders that are pretty stout and who will eventually own him since they just keep buying the paper that "conveys title & keys".  It's an oucher alright.  I'm thinking of bidding SDRXP if thing get out of hand. 

  247. 247
    bill Says:

    Sd has alot of stuff to go thru
    floated 250 conv pref issue
    KLAHOMA CITY, Nov. 4, 2010 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — SandRidge Energy, Inc. (SD





    var a=function(t){
    var b=new fmr.rct.ui.Bubble({triggerNode:t,displayNode:”t_message_SD1″,configObject:GLOBAL_CONFIG})

    console.debug(“this.triggerNode ” + this.triggerNode);
    if(this.triggerNode != currentlyOpen.triggerNode){
    console.debug(“currentlyOpen.triggerNode = ” + currentlyOpen.triggerNode);
    } catch (e) {
    currentlyOpen = this;

    var c=new fmrAttachObj()
    var s=c.toQuery()
    onFault:function(request,response){console.log(“error fetching bubble contents for SD”)}

    var n=false
    if(d.id==””){d.id=”t_trigger_SD1″}//need id or bubble will not trigger

    ) today announced that it has priced a private offering of 2.5 million shares of its 7.00% convertible perpetual preferred stock for net proceeds of approximately $242 million. Shares are being issued to qualified institutional buyers eligible under Rule 144A. The company has also granted a 30-day option to the initial purchasers to purchase an additional 500,000 shares, or $50 million, of its 7.00% convertible perpetual preferred stock solely to cover over-allotments, if any.
    raised outlook for expenses
    raised cap ex
    help production
    more debt o/s and more pref stock
    This has to be a take out play sooner or later

  248. 248
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    skimo — way to go!  Never let 'em tell you that you can't do something.  Just means 1) they don't know HOW to do it, or 2) they are too lazy to do it, or 3) some combo of the above.

  249. 249
    bill Says:

    sorry about last msg
    held production

  250. 250
    zman Says:


  251. 251
    crysball Says:

    Thanks  for the  'HEADS UP'  on SD   hedges, and  the 'mark to market'  effect this will have.
    Did buy   SD  Nov. $5   PUTS    which will look  pretty  good  tomorrow.

  252. 252
    zman Says:


  253. 253
    irongate Says:

    KOG – 3Q10 earnings release; CC 11AM ET; 877-257-3168, pw: 20070969
    · EPS est $0.02 for 3Q, $0.03 for 4Q, $0.06 for FY10
    · Rev est $9M for 3Q, $13.8M for 4Q, $34.3M for FY10
    · EPS $0.01 vs st. $0.02
    · Rev $7M vs st. $9M
    · Production 126.8M boe vs 69.1M boe in 3Q09

  254. 254
    bill Says:

    crys- good move- i wish i did. Good chance it moves back to the 4's- Ebitda for q3 was only 13 m.
    Seems like every move they made backfired. Having oil hedges in a rising market, not having ng hedges in a lower market,having basis hedges that moved against them. The co2 plant coming online when it doesnt make sense to drill. They probably have a ton of operational issues i dont even know about.
    He is Aubrey lite, and im sorry for sliming aubrey. Aubrey has wriggled out of his mess with jv partners. Ward refuses to partner with anyone and sitting on 1,0 m of idle assets.
    He hasnt made an outlook in 3 years and curent outlook has cost and cap ex expansion without anything more coming out of the back end. IMHO Ward must go but ward wont go cause he is chairman of the bod so they have corp governance issues as well. I think they are gone in 12 months
    pxp released numbers

  255. 255
    mimster90 Says:

    zman Please consider putting the date after the title everyday. Sometimes I forget to login and the top "day" post happens to match the actuall day.
    I guess its time to sell SD, thanks zman, bill and everyone lse for your SD posts.

  256. 256
    zman Says:

    Go Hogs Go

  257. 257
    zman Says:

    Mim- Do you see the little blue box at top right? It should have the date in it. If you don't see that I can start putting it in the title until we get a new software package that will make sure you know you are at a non-logged in screen. 

  258. 258
    mimster90 Says:

    thnaks zman, I see it now in IE 8, sometimes it ddin't show in IE 7, depending what add ons I load. Firefox shows the bluebox fine but its less secure so I rarely use it on windows.

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