02
Nov
Wednesday Morning After-Math
Market Sentiment Watch: Futures non-committal on mixed bag of election results last night. All eyes will be on the huge amount of data still left to be disclosed this week and the Fed statement today. EOG will clock in with the most disappointing guidance of the quarter and will get sacked for it (see Stuff section). I'll be on that call and a couple of others today, looking for play color.
Ecodata:
- ADP data came in at +43,000 jobs, higher than expected.
- We get ISM Services (F = 53.5%) and Factory Orders (F = 1.6%) at 10 am EST
- We get auto sales for October later in the day (F = 12 mm)
- Fed speaks regarding QE2 this afternoon
In Today’s Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Oil Inventory Preview
- Stuff We Care About Today – EOG
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):
- $5,200
- 100% Cash
- Yesterday’s Trades: None
ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
- $3,300
- 0% Cash
- Yesterday’s Trades:
-
NBL – Sold the NBL $80 Nov. Call for $2.70, up 100%.
BEXP – Added (3) BEXP $21 Calls for $0.80 with the stock off $0.45 following earnings and an operations update that are detailed in the post and before the conference call this morning.
-
ZIM (Zman Long Term Portfolio)
- BEXP Trading Position added at $21.16, in addition to the long term core holdings here.
- We will post a fresh portfolio summary here with tomorrow's post.
Commodity Watch:
Crude oil inched up $0.95 to close at $83.90 yesterday, in equity market, dollar driven trading. After the close, the API released an across the board bullish looking report (see below). This morning crude is trading up a buck.
Natural gas inched back up 4 cents to close the day at $3.87. We remain range bound. This morning gas is trading flat.
- Tropics Watch: Nada affecting gas, Thomas going to be bad news for Haiti.
Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: Street is at 64 BCF for tomorrow’s report.
- Last Week: 71 Bcf Injection
- Last Year: 29 Bcf Injection
- 5 Year Average: 33 Bcf Injection
- 10 year Hi: 64 Bcf Injection
- 10 year Low: 27 Bcf Withdrawal
Oil Inventory Preview
API Watch: Bullish
- Crude: Down 4.137 mm barrels
- Cushing: Down 0.9 mm barrels
- Gasoline: Down 3.202 mm barrels
- Distillates: Down 4.727 mm barrels
Stuff We Care About Today
EOG Earnings Brief - Reported In Line Quarter; Cuts Spending And Guides Down Hard
Huge guidance cuts:
- 2010 organic growth forecast cut from 13 to 9%
- 2011 was 19%, now 10% growth with oil volumes growing 53%
- 2012 was 21%, now 12% with oil up 30%
Balance sheet: Net debt to cap hits 27%; this is above their target of 25% and while not a big deal the growth here prompted them to cut spending which in turn reduced the production guidance. They are now targeting a max net debt to cap of 30 to 35%. That's higher than I ever thought I'd see them go and while they can easily accommodate that level of debt it cuts against their debt leery grain. Just two years ago these guys were talking about how they admired XOM's debt free balance sheet and were angling to get there. And still they will outspend cash flow in 2010 and likely again in 2011.
Operations Update Highlights: To be overshadowed completely by guidance.
- Eagle Ford Shale - lots of data leading EOG to be more encouraged about their strong positioning within the condensate rich portions of the play.
- Bakken - OK, not spectacular wells highlighted.
- Barnett combo - some of the best wells reported to date in the play; 16rigs running.
- Leonard (Avalon) Shale goes from reserve thoughs of 65 mm boe to > 65 mm boe as they derisk more acreage.
- Niobrara: still in the "too soon to say" category on EUR, 3 rig program --no new well results.
- Haynesville - Scaling back aggressive drilling plans, now drilling to hold sweet spots, and commenting that the rest of the acreage is mostly HBP. -
Nutshell: Good quarter but no one will care given the massively reduced guidance. Given time investors should take note that production guidance cuts were natural gas focused. 2011 was previously seen as averaging 63% production from liquids ... this is now projected to be 67%. The net impact is that EOG gets oilier, quicker than expected but they go further into debt than most people suspected. My sense is the stock gets punished for weeks to come. I continue to hold a starter position and may add but will be patient. Options trading there could be lucrative but I will be quick with sell trigger if I play at all.
Conference: Today, 9 am EST
Other Stuff
Conference Call Watch:
- PQ at 9:30 am EST
- SM at 10 am EST - just listening for Granite Wash and Niobrara color.
- XEC at 1 pm EST
- CWEI - 2:30 pm EST
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- HK - FBR maintains Outperform rating
- REXX - RBC cuts by $2 to $18, maintains Outperform
- OAS - Morgan Keegan downgrades to Market Perform
- SM - RBC raises target by $5 to $45 but maintains Sector Perform
Analyst Watch:
November 3rd, 2010 at 7:43 amBP – Goldman ups to Buy on results, valuation
EOG-I am going to try to listen to call but guidance really sets me off-in August they were reaffirming 2010 guidance and now they are blaming NG prices some 2-3 months later-what did they think, some magical increase in prices would occur-jeez-I think these guys belong in the overpromise, underdeliver column and maybe in the incompetent management column as well-this is wrong, wrong, for so many people believing their narrative, "lumpiness"-
November 3rd, 2010 at 7:55 amcwei reported .96 share– in that is one time gain of 3 m for sale of assets and 8 m loss on hedges, so adjusted for those 2 items is 1.41 vs analyst expectations of 1.12. Non cash Ga exp was higher than my model which was another 20 cents
November 3rd, 2010 at 7:55 amOil production was 10,000 bbbls a day vs 8,900 last qtr and 9500 expected
Cwei cash flow was 5.00 for the qtr and 14.21 ytd
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:02 amChoices – listening to EOG now, will report back anything new, typical call for them so far, review the big picture on each play and then highlight a few "typical" wells. I understand the lumpiness, that took place as they made their quarter on volumes … that has nothing to do with the extreme cut to guidance and your question is guidance. This sounds like them throwing the guidance towel, much like CHK did 2 years ago. Frustrating. They have never been overpromise – under deliver types in the past but they clearly did communicate the price risk inherent in their long term production targets. Not defending them in the least.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:11 ameog down 8 premarket wow
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:12 amEOG –
Revisions to numbers reasoning.
At current prices they have "no interest in growing gas volumes"
On oil, they underestimated the timing required for pattern drilling. Delays in fraccing. We are currently experiencing delays in almost every division … these delays won't go away any time soon … at least 100 wells being delayed now …
…
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:13 amBill – I think out of the last 3 earnings releases they've taken a $5 hit at the open. I wrote last night something like $8 to $10 on the day and that I would not be quick to bottom fish in the common but that I might take a fast call trade here… we'll see, nothing so far really to inspire. If it is down $8 when the Fed says they will buy $2 T of bonds then it may get a pop … still listening. Q&A is going to be rough.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:15 amEOG
We plan to drill 0 Barnett gas wells in 2011.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:16 amexm reported 2 cents better
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:18 amId love to invest in hk and chk, cant do it with current low prices
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:19 amEOG
Bakken – no unusual declines in the Parshall core area – not sure how that can be with what WLL said last week.
Saying the EFS could be bigger than the Bakken for them next year
Niobrara – NE Colorado
3 rigs – no real commentary , 2 recent wells which I had heard about at about 700 bopd each.
Natural Gas Plays
Haynesville – continuing to make good wells, IPs in the 20s and 30s MMcfepd range,
Analyst Watch
EOG – Howard Weil cuts them to Market Perform
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:19 amBill – The comments on frac delays at the EFS not going away anytime soon should pressure HK and CHK today as well as some of the other players there.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:20 amdo you think there will be a bounce back from initial down draft in eog
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:21 amEOG Notes:
We do not intend to sell or JV any of our horizontal oil plays
We do intend to sell gassy assets, acreage, production …. you have to wonder at the timing of selling already HBP gassy assets given current gas prices.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:22 amre 14. Yeah, probably so, but I think there will be lingering weakness here for several weeks. When the Street turns down on them and the big cap E&Ps it can stay down on it despite large drops.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:23 amadding to 16, so I'm thinking there will be a chance to trade it but only for a very short term trade
EOG Notes
He expects NG rig count to drop by 200 rigs by mid 2011 – sounds fair, hard to tell what a gas rig is these days with plays like the Eagle Ford where you have either gas wells or liquids rich wells that have a lot of casinghead gas.
Papa is negative on NG. Calling EOG an oil company now. Says there is no other E&P of their size growing oil production as fast as they which is what I was thinking with my nutshell comment.
Q&A Started
Joe Allman up first – you can almost here Mark Papa sigh …
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:26 amEagle Ford has been one of the hotter plays within E&P, but low gas prices and the frac delays may take some of the shine off the play for the short term, potentially letting investment dollars slosh back up to North Dakota plays.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:27 amZ: Do the delays that EOG is talking about likely to effect the whole E&P sector. I know we talk about a game changer when areas get proven, is this a changer for your opinion about Papa?
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:28 amGood morning. What we are seeing is continuation of what you would expect when these cos don't have to drill to hold production. It is going to be lower guidance and what I would expect will be higher nat gas prices. We are getting closer.
Is the bottom in on nat gas prices??? Only time and weather will tell.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:28 amEOG – In 2011
Divestitures: Will be selling a portion of the Marcellus and some non-core Eagle Ford. Have sold a small piece of the Niobrara 400K net acres, said they will be keeping most of it.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:29 amanother seller: EOG to sell some HS assets. Many sellers, few buyers = low prices.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:29 amTom – they do affect everyone. It doesn't change my opinion on Mark but my sense is the Street is going to over do it on the downside before it settles down.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:30 amwho is papa referring too on new oil play
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:32 amre 22, he did say the HS will be small. Didn't say how big the Marcellus sale would be, but agree, people selling gas right now are going to find weaker and weaker prices. Recall two months ago that LINE, who are always on the hunt for bargains, say natural gas plays were starting to look more interesting to them than oil.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:33 amwe need a pure pressure pumping company to invest in
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:34 amwho makes this stuff (equipment)
#1 reason for pulling down estimates – lack of availability of frac equipment. Makes you worry about a lot of peoples growth plans. If EOG can't get frac crews, you have to worry about someone like an MHR.
Re 24, now sure, RMD, did you catch that?
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:35 amre 26. BHI.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:36 amZ: Based on the latest CFPS #'s for EOG, do you have a range where is represents very good value? For the big picture, do you think E&P stocks may not be the best performing sector until some of the imbalances are taken care of.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:36 amand HAL
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:37 amre 29, let me circle back to that post call.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:38 amHeadTrader saying mrkt will be "boring until 2:15." He is sitting on his hands right now.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:39 amNice call on CWEI, bill!
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:39 am27 I just happened to notice the comment…with hope in my heart.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:41 amSkipping the PQ call which started at the half hour to listen to this one until, 10 am est, then will switch to SM would like to hear their thoughts on EFS and Granite Wash and Niobrara.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:44 amAnalyst Watch:
BEXP – Global Hunter hikes target from $25 to $29.50, stays at Buy.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:45 amHear ya BOP on HT, would add maybe a little pop around 10 am EST on data but yeah, otherwise boring.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:46 amIt would seem there will be more gas assets for sale than the upstream MLP industry can absorb.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:47 amEOG – how you get the next leg down, Leo Mariani, who works at RBC and who I worked with in a past life, asks the question … so if you have your asset sales as planned, do you still get to the 30 to 35% net debt to cap. Answer. Yes.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:48 amre 38, right, which is good for the Upstream MLP Industry 😉
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:48 amSM running hard pre call.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:49 amPDE rumored to be for sale.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:51 ambalt releases after market closes
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:54 amid sell today into earnings. They could get cute and raise the divy up to 20 cents but if they did they are trying to juice the stock for the secondary dump.
The capes weakened in q3 and now the smaller sizes are weak in q4
sm wow
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:55 amre 42, thanks, noted.
EOG saying several months ago they were thinking they would need 3 weeks between the time they called the service company and the time the frac crew would be on site. Now they say it is 4 to 5 months. Hrrrmmm. I'm shocked at the magnitude of the miscalculation there. CHK and others have talked about some tightness but nothing like 4 to 5 months and if you are in the business let me know if you have heard something similar.
To me, I think they "kitchen sinked" these estimates.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:55 amThe p.p backlog can certainly extend out that long based on commentary from the svc companies… "we're booked through Q2 11, etc" But I'm not in the industry. I don't know how you could imagine a 3 week cycle. Something I'm missing?
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:58 amEOG-somebody (did not get the name) asked, what has changed from August to now, obviously referring to reaffirming guidance in August-Papa dodged the question and went all the way back to April, said the frac situation has gotten worse.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:58 am45 EOG just got it wrong on prices received, prices paid, volumes, etc. They are human after all.
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:59 amIf they are right about 4 to 5 months then your big EFS players probably need to have puts on them by me. Costs pressure on the fracs as well. This suggests the market is quite a bit tighter than people have thought in the play.
In order of acres held:
CHK
EOG
HK
APC
SM
PXD
SFY
ROSE
PXP
MHR
CXPO
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:59 amre 46. If you didn't have firm service contracts in hand I don't know why you'd assume 3 weeks.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:00 amEOG call ending, analysts universally unhappy, downgrades already started, look for more to come.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:01 amSM 3Q call starting now
http://sm-energy.com/
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:02 amISM Services at 54.3% vs 53.5% expected
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:03 amFactory orders up 2% vs 1.6% expected
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:03 amRe 49, I'm unsure if it's really new news. Obviously good for the svc companies but you can see it in the margins already. You don't go from zero percent NAM margins to twenty percent by making donuts.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:05 amI also thought PXD discussed a lot of this on their call when they went into why they themselves owned frac crews. To imagine this is some sort of surprise since August seems a bit disingenuous to me.
I'm uninvolved in EOG, thankfully. I was asked on 10/26 if I wanted to short it and responded that it was probably the most large cap-shorted name by the hedge fund crowd. Woops. Just cutting '10 probably wouldn't have killed it, IMO, but '11/12 and the new debt/cap discussion has done it in worse than I thought.
Jat – I knew it was tight but didn't think it was 4 to 5 months tight. Agree the 3 wk to 4-5 mo comment is silly.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:08 amOil inventories in 20 minutes. Oil up 40 cents.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:10 amSM – Growth revised higher due to Eagle Ford Shale, then Bakken. SM please share logistical secrets with EOG.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:11 amBEXP waking up after a good qtr yesterday and a flattish day.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:12 am49 it will be interesting to see how chk is dealing with it
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:15 amSM Notes
– have secured a portion of their completion needs in the EFS and are working to get more secured.
– Non-operated EFS acreage (APC operated) accelerating, and APC is going to JV some of their acreage so expecting another acceleration.
– Bakken – fracced 3 long laterals that were parallel to each other in the same 2 section unit, waiting to flow each back until all 3 were finished (retained energy frac) that had a combined IP of 6,000 BOEpd. –
– Woodford – about to shutter program as acreage is now HBP
…
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:16 amBill – CHK has completion deals with the company that their CFO just left to run … they're probably all over the issue.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:17 amBut HK is catching some collateral damage this morning.
SM Notes
Niobrara & Granite Wash – nothing beyond the press release.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:18 amlooking at sm hedges page 24 of presentation
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:18 amgas– great a +
oil bad D
BEXP within 15 cents of its all time high.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:20 amRMD, WEST, did you note PETD on the tape with a Wolfberry acquisition?
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:24 amEOG – no bounce yet, down $10.50.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:26 am66 no; thanks.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:29 amEGY
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:32 amS. Etame field is smaller than expected. The recently drilled discovery well and sidetrack s indicate it will be more difficult to produce (see slide #11 in the Rodman & Reneshaw Presetnation on the Vaalco wesite). Probably one devvelopment well in 2011……..they will claim reserves for the field in 2010.
The Etame 7A well is currently being tied back [subsea] to the FPSO.The sidetracks on Southeeast Etame revealed the reserve potentail is MUCH LARGER than predicted, and it will take more Horizontal wells to fully develop the field……reserves will be clained in 2010 and another horizontal development well probable for 2011, The just drilled & completed Etame 7A OHGP well will go on production in December.……….note Etame 1-V will be shut down when Etame 7-A goies on production……still looking at about a 4,000 b/d net incease for the Etame 7-A/ Etame 1-V switchout, and a reduced water cut.
Ebouri field will also need one more horizontal well to fully drain the field and another horizontal development well probable for 2011. There are problems on the Ebour field [generator, then swithgear,] which have caused production to drop from 9,000 b/d back to 6,000 b/d. The equipment to correct these problems is on site and will be installed in December………..getting production back up to 9,000 b/d. They will also be modifying the Ebouri platform in 2011 to add more slots (at least 2 more possible 3) .
South Tchibala OHGP development well has just finished and is being tied back to the open slot on the Avouma platform Production will begin in December 2010
The big news items:
~Angola partner
~Total/Vaalco on shore Gabon [Mutamba] drilling plan
~Omangou [Shallow Offshore Gabon] Exploration well …..spudding about now.
~Increasing FPSO capacity abouve 25,000 b/d
~2011 Capex and Drilling plans
will be discussed at the CC next week.
NOTE: Valco does not hedge and its prices are based on Brent Crude…………..so they are loving the Brent premium [to WTI].
IMHO, Vaalco is taking care of business……and in a 'kinder and gentler way' they seem to be following the BEXP theme of 'LEAVE NO OIL BEHIND'.
Circling back to Tom's ?'s
Q) "Z: Based on the latest CFPS #'s for EOG, do you have a range where is represents very good value?
A) That's a tough one to pin down. I own a small piece for the long term. The long term has not really changed as that is an asset value realization story. They are just getting there more slowly which does affect PV but the boe's are still there. I have always liked buy this one more on weakness than strength. The story is much improved relative to two years ago but you can't tell that by the stock price. Much of that chart is oil prices but part of it was the advent of the oil plays at their analyst conference in 2008. From a forward CFPS basis, I would say they are cheap any time they are under 7x normally but now, that's probably more like 6x or less. Recall that these guys for years were growing 1 to 3%. So a come down from 20 to 10% is still impressive growth for a company of this size. I have not backed into how much of a retreat we see in CFPS. It's not simply half due to production being oilier as a % of total. But it will definitely get socked.
Q) For the big picture, do you think E&P stocks may not be the best performing sector until some of the imbalances are taken care of.
A) in a minute…
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:34 amPETD acq. looks about like other Wolfberry acq. prices, but no info on where it was. Checking on this.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:35 amEIA Inventories:
Crude up 2 mm barrels
Gasoline down 2.7 mm barrels
Distillates down 3.6 mm barrels
…
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:35 amcrys — re EGY, that is an incredibly detailed update and analysis. Thank you. I think the stock should head higher on those points. you?
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:37 amMore EIA…
Product Demand:
Gasoline – backed off from last week's odd peak but still elevated all things considered.
Distillates – up again seasonally but also strong in light of recent history. Net, net, a positive and the reduction in stocks is more than a little welcome to the bull cause.
…
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:37 amMore EIA
Cushing was off 200K barrels, again in line with API
SM Notes: on their Atlas Niobrara well – it is a much better well than we expected, it is holding up better than their Bakken wells (better type curve). 3D on the way, more wells in 2011, not ready to announce victory, too early. Second well drilled a lot differently than the first well, seems to be much less naturally fractured than the first well (Atlas well).
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:40 amSM Notes
Any type curve we have for the Bakken, this well (the Niobrara Atlas well) is better than that. Strong words. One well, but strong words.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:41 amRMD – production on the acreage muddles it for me, what prices are you seeing (range?) on Wolfberry on raw land?
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:43 amAnalyst Watch:
HK – Lazard cuts to Hold. Thanks for that one EOG.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:44 amWest – any thoughts on the XEC quarter when you get a chance?
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:44 amBill, Jat, others re EFS and HK – RJ out with a note saying great quarter, headwinds of higher service costs in EFS/Haynesville prompt us to stay at mkt perform.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:47 amEOG – Goldman took these guys to Buy – Conviction List after the analyst meeting. Wonder if that is still the case or they remove it tomorrow and we see another downdraft. GS should really change the name of that list.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:48 amThe prime motivation for drilling for hk is to retain leases. Do they get to retain lease if they drill it but dont complete it?
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:49 amI dont think they mind. But this backlog (uncompleted wells) will keep ng down for the next few years
Thanks for the update on EGY Crys. Will get around to it.
RMD – data point on Wolfberry – says $1.4 to $1.5 mm well cost.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:49 amBill – I know you have to get it flowing, cannot drill and TA and wait for prices to rise. I think if it is on the "to frac list" that you are OK on moving it towards production to get the area patterned out for HBP.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:51 amRE49 CHK owns a piece of a frac company and Encana is building there own from what I hear could start to see JV with the pumping services companies to lock in crews
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:51 amGM sales up 7.1 %, better than expected.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:51 amGeno – right, Fractech. I bet with the new CFO the thought there is to take that thing public.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:52 am87 Id like as piece of that and creative asset monetization for aubrey
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:54 amOil up 75 cents now, on the whole, bullish numbers. Imports did back way off to offset part of last week's pop (govt smoothing) but refining fell as well yielding the bump in crude stocks. Utilization is probably at the low for the year now.
Not that this is a problem for oil but it is interesting to see lower 48 volumes climbing now even with the moratorium. Bakken, bakken, bakken.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:04 amStill no rally in EOG, after that call I'm not surprised. You have the lower production in hand but analysts will have to guesstimate on a 2011 capital budget (not provided until next call), rising service costs, undetermined asset sale proceeds in a weak, buyer's market, and the impact this will have on their balance sheet. So the reluctance to bottom fish is pretty fair.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:06 amThe overall market is ready for a 200 point down draft, imho
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:08 amEGY,
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:11 amBobby , for years has been 'SELLING THE SIZZLE' [GROWTH],but not delivering on it….for a varitey of reasons (not all within their contol).
EGY has a very nigh % of institutional holding, but they are losing patience.
SHOW ME THE BEEF!
Bobby needs to deliver on the growth………………until he does the share price will languish.
All IMHO.
re 92. A problem common to many small cap, offshore E&Ps. I'm thinking the same applies to TAT right now.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:14 amhttp://www.gasfrac.com/
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:19 amtalking my book dept and FWIW,
GFS.V a small Canadian startup using LPG fracturing process, -Q3 earnings 9 Nov-Q2 earnings M D & E was informative, operations just beginning in Texas, continues in Canada-process has patents pending, met with understandable skepticism on this board by industry veterans-risk of defensible patents if the process gains support.
I bought in Sep 2010 ~$6, now trading ~$8.50
I'm not sure if the small size of the company will allow it to capitalize on this fracing bottleneck-Q3 M D & A may have more info.
BOP- how is the little dog reacting to last nights election, if at all? Are we looking at a weaker dollar as some are predicting and if so what happens to the price of oil?
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:20 amBobby Gerry is a nice and smart enough man… but he's getting long in the tooth. He sits on 3 public boards (incl EGY) and a private one. He gets paid a lot and he doesn't have to work very hard. Russ Scheirman (COO) is incredibly bright, but I don't know his level of enthusiasm for growth (could be high, don't know). He is well-paid too… but no where near Mr. Gerry. And Russ doesn't sit on any boards.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:21 amEGY has lots of cash and international oily production. Mr. Gerry should "do the right thing" and merge with a domestic, gassy company, looking to delever their balance sheet. Then Mr. Gerry should step aside and concentrate on his community activities. This would be a great time for that to happen (cheap gas assets). EGY needs staff, so can't just buy gassy assets… they need the personel to go with them. Wonder if there are any private, levered, shallow GoM gassy companies that would be a good match?
But EGY is a Strategic Activity and Management Succession, just waiting to happen. That said, it's been sitting in that mode for quite some time…
useg witha mid day update
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:21 amhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Energy-Corp-Announces-pz-1564562380.html?x=0&.v=1
cargo — little dog is looking at the Master. The size of the stick in the Master's hand got smaller… but, the Master needs to lay it down and say "good doggie."
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:24 amIt's a sunny day, the field is green, other dogs are out playing… all we need is some assurance that the thwackings have ceased… and a little nudge and a smile… Then it's Doggie Park Play Day. And all the fun that comes with that.
As far as Fed Policy… doesn't do any good, to shove food down the doggy's throat, if he can't run around and expend energy. It will just clog up his little arteries and he will get sick and…..
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:26 amZ; So is it safe to say that a figure for CFPS for '11 & '12 for EOG is just a difficult guess at the moment? Accordingly as the sellsiders all come down tommorrow. Another $5 to $10/ sh is not out of the question.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:29 amWhat I like about oil …
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:30 amWeak USD ==> oil goes up
Strong US economy ==> oil goes up
Inflation kicks in ==> oil goes up
China continues to grow ==> oil goes up
US economy gets weaker from here ==> oil stays flat to down
So, more ways and scenarios for oil to go UP, than down, methinks.
Hello Z, everyone.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:31 amEOG – getting a licking .. no questions; will read up on the chatter here. Fortunately, was not long, but am short puts.
BOP – Good night last night overall !
also, bought some CIGX today at 1.79 … still like it ?
PackMan — it was a good night, agreed. Still, some old faces returning that I was hoping not to have to look at anymore. One never gets exactly what one wants, eh?
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:39 amNothing has changed in my thinking about CIGX. If anything, evidence that inVentiv is expanding current marketing past the Virginia test market tells me they are seeing positive results. Star Scientific is not paying for the marketing… inVentiv is. Only negative in the near-term is the inevitable equity-raise. But will probably be done with current shareholders and presented as a "done-deal." Looking forward to parsing their Q, when it comes out.
DVN just went bonkers… any particular reason??
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:50 amSorry for the delay had to take a call after the SM call ended.
Tom – I would say the range of estimates on 2011 and 2012 will widen. All of them will come down substantially. NAVs will drop as well. People are negative on the name but most will not have new numbers until tomorrow or Friday cranked through their models. I think it is not done yet falling but that it won't all be straight down (some mid day pops to be me with selling) and some, "this is the end of the drop" knife catching tomorrow … which will likely be met with selling. I like it long term, here and higher. Story is by no means disrupted by this by they have taken a hit to credibility with the Street and with me.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:51 ambop – atpg
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:51 amyou might like to read this
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=111444
DVN talking about spending less on dry gas, selling some things, seeing modest service cost creep.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:53 amRe 101 – haha, well said!
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:53 amInteresting letter by Einhorn
http://cache.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2010/11/Greenlight-Q3-2010-Letter.pdf
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:54 ambill #106 — nice discussion about how to value and trade distressed debt. The US tranche of those ATPG bonds are 144a (private placement). I tried to buy some of the euro-bond tranche in a managed account, but can't (without setting up an offshore account). So, felt like a hungry kid with his nose pressed to the glass, looking at a warm, inviting Thanksgiving dinner, but shivering outside in the cold with no way in!
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:58 amjust passing this along (that 's circulating trading desks)…. c/b the begining of the QE2 unwind…. (or someone's guess at lower QE2)
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:01 amhearing from a customer on gold:
Big seller of gold here, GCZ0. Looks like a screen seller; 2 seperate legs lower; +/- 25k contracts hit the tape…. over the last 10 minutes. 1327.10 low. We saw a large buyer back on 10/29 of 10k at the 1350 level – could be a liquidation….
BOP — fer sure; Reid, Pelosi, Frank & Rangel are a few that come to mind.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:01 amEOG-FWIW: P & F Chart has bearish price obj of 73-do not think, however, that JB places too much emphasis on P & F price obj's.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:05 amTo my mind, this is dead money until (and if) they get their narrative to fit their results, maybe sometime in late 2011-huge credibility problem-I'm thoroughly pissed and bleeding badly but I was, emphasize was, overloaded so it is probably my own stupidity.
110, lol Interesting that Einhorn uses free cash flow in his DCF analysis on st joe paper
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:05 amIn our ep world, we look at multiple's on gross cash flow. Im starting to wonder out loud what good is 200 m in quarterly cash flow, if you have to spend 250 m to get it. almost everyone of our ep names spend every dollar of cash they can get their hands on. When do these names start generating excess cash flow
If gold falls so does oil
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:06 amYou can use FCF, it's just a different range than with CFPS. CFPS is still much more telling than EPS which is what most stocks outside our realm trade on.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:09 amPackMan — don't forget Babs! sheesh….
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:11 amMarket / group reddening up in front of the fed, all of this trading aside from the company specific stories is noise.
BEXP acting like it wants to take out the all time high but it needs the market to get un-nervous.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:12 amSSN volume very low for it at 100K shares. Notice that Niobrara news quarter to date from the major players has been almost non-existent. No negatives really, just lack of news flow. The SM news is nice but it's one well. Early, early there. Betting after all this silence that CHK is mum on their two wells as well.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:14 amLast week was the highest for distillate demand since Spring 2009. It does not appear to be a resurgence in imports. My weekly check of truckloads in the US has shown a continued marked improvement. Interesting since stocks have been bloated for so long but are now coming off pretty quickly. We fell below year ago levels for the first time in a long time with this last reading the surplus to the 5 year average fell to 19% (it got as high as 30% last Spring.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:25 amSome thoughts and predictions from a large trading desk for Fed language around this afternoon's QE2 announcement —
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:33 amWe expect that statement will announce an intention to purchase $500 billion of longer-dated Treasury securities over the next 6 months. In addition, we expect the statement will express a willingness, but not necessarily a bias, to further increase asset purchases if warranted by economic conditions. Enhancing the extended period language by tying it more closely to observable economic variables may be an option, but we don’t think it’s an option they will exercise at this meeting. We believe that for this week’s meeting only Treasuries will be mentioned as an asset to be purchased and think the language will refer to “up to” $500 billion, consistent with previous Fed asset purchase announcements.
President Obama's press conf starts in about 1/2 hour too.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:33 amRe 121 – thanks much. Re 122 – probably the most important speech of his presidency.
Analyst Watch:
EOG – Citi cuts them to Hold mid day.
BOP – got tied up, will read that USEG pr now.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:37 amBy the way, when I talk about check truckloads, I use this site which is monitored by some Street types in the transport industry as a gauge of truckloads rolling.
http://www.landstarbroker.com/
The number in the upper right has been rising for months now from lows around 1,000 back 18 months ago.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:39 amchoices re: 94 AREX talked about maybe using propane to frac wells. I don't know which kind of well/which horizon they were talking about testing this way, nor if that is what John Ely is consulting on. John is consulting on the Cinco1601 Wolfcamp recompletion.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:44 amRe USEG – nothing incremental in terms of well results as BEXP had the Brad Olson 2 well in their slide show yesterday. The acquisition of 11,160 acres in Montana that they think look geologically similar to Rough Rider is news. That area that BEXP has 3D over is Ghost Rider / Pale Rider. It will be interesting to see who drills it for USEG or if they do another deal with BEXP. Probably worth $3 to $4,000 per acre. PR doesn't mention what they paid and it depends on how contiguous it is and exactly where it and they were sketchy on that. Will be on their quarterly call next week.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:45 amFWIW – Don't let anyone shake you out of gold based on whatever is or isn't said by the Fed today regardless of how it's trading.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:52 amNoise, noise and more noise. Shakedown in progress for all the weak hands and suckers.
Barring a complete overkill announcement from the Fed (which I doubt, I agree with something along the lines of 121), there will be another sell off today I think later in the day. A nice place to initialize a position if you don't already have one.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:54 amWyoming had something to say, I thought on propane fracs, will go check. Any other completion engineers please sound of if you have thoughts. Thanks.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:55 amhttp://citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/goldman-sachs-predicts-another-2-trillion-of-qe/a443986
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:58 amLast on QE, but I'll stop spamming now until we see some announcement.
XEC Call in 3 minutes:
http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/3/117243.html
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:58 amURGENT
Please please please bookmark the backup site.
http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com
November 3rd, 2010 at 1:41 pmI like this site better. The other one comes in black.
November 3rd, 2010 at 1:49 pmthat was funny, elduque 😉
November 3rd, 2010 at 1:52 pmEld – how about now?
November 3rd, 2010 at 1:53 pmThanks Scott. You are truly underpaid.
If you are in Oceanside California please send me an email … there is a good chance you are about to get blocked.
November 3rd, 2010 at 1:56 pmBill – Very nice call on CWEI yesterday. Did they live up to your production thoughts?
November 3rd, 2010 at 1:57 pmJB – Can you look at BEXP for me when you get a chance, five cents off the all time high. Fundamentals continue to improve …. just wondering if you think it has legs for a move higher and how much in the near term. Not concerned on the core, wondering about my trading call yesterday.
November 3rd, 2010 at 1:59 pmnow it is white. How did you do that?
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:02 pmThat's actually pretty easy. S&P now suddenly likes QE2v600B.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:03 pmBEXP at all time highs. Yippee Skippee.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:04 pmRE 140 – Probably because the door is left wide open for the amount to be more than 600B. There is no way that if they spend that much they are going to stop at just that much. Next month, when there is equally bad data they will increase it so the amount is likely to be above 600 by Q2 and to be extended beyond.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:08 pmre 142 – right, kind of like E&P company spending. The lack of discipline in the E&P crowd has been repeatedly cured over the years by crashing prices as a result of over spending leaving them with crushing debt loads and reorganization with few players living on to see the next boom price time. I wonder if there is a parallel.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:11 pmI think we who have suffered with Nat Gas are in for better times. Not only are the cos. actually cutting back production, but somebody in Washington finally got the message.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:12 pmWhat exactly did the President say about NG his speech?
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:14 pmPlease report any site slowness.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:19 pmBasically that there is agreement between the two sides (Dems and R's) that we have a lot of natural gas and we should be open to looking into taking advantage of it (took him long enough)
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:21 pmNG truly a win-win.
Job creation on the drilling and midstream side
Job creation at the big 3 as they produce NG cars
If I were the President I'd declare a war on imported oil. Promote dual fuel (gasoline/NG) cars and then tell the nightly news broadcast to run the mogas/ngas differential on the screen using avg nationwide pricing. Tell the consumer this is how much you save this month by filling up at home with NG. Then run another ticker that shows the emission reduction. I can go on and on as long as the site stays up.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:22 pmThanks DRL – I'm going to find the transcript. That's a basically toothless comment from him. Candidate Obama said much the same and then went all battery batty.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:23 pmAnalyst Watch:
AREX – Hillard Lyons takes target from $13 to $20
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:29 pmZMAN: ANY THOUGHTS ON APA THEY REPORT AH TODAY
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:35 pmSLD my BEXP Nov 21's frm my chemo chair for 69% profit, tks Z !
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:35 pmRam – did you find your way back here?
KOG reports Thursday for a Friday call. Should have a couple of more wells to talk about of the 7 to be completed by year end. Sense is they put in strong sequential production growth.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:36 pmGM just officially launched its IPO with a $26-29/share price talk.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:36 pmI would sooner take a bubble bath with a porcupine than buy GM shares… I don't care if they go up. That's blood money. (Just ask the GM pensioners who owned GM debt.)
#125-thanks for comment, RMD
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:37 pmWyoming was skeptical but i believe it was for safety reasons-company claims it has same insurance rating as conventional fracing-stk selling off today, it is volatile.
Scoop – I have not given them a whit of thought of late, and have not seen anything fresh so I'm useless on that one at the moment.
Bond – very glad it worked out for ya.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:37 pmYes. I am always here unless I get blocked.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:37 pmre 154. Fantastic. I just broke a rib.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:38 pmRe 157. We would never block you. Unless you are in Oceanside. Which I see that you are not.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:39 pmbond — are you in Houston?
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:39 pm150 on AREX is just catching up to everyone else. They arestill low, I hope.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:47 pmRMD – I plan to listen to the AREX replay.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:48 pmReporting before the open:
APA, ATPG, CHK, PVA, RIG, SU, SFY, UPL. No owned names by me, interested in ATPG, SFY, UPL. Want to hear what CHK has to say about the Niobrara (probably nothing)
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:54 pmBEXP tapping $22 at the close, I thought yesterday's trading was odd, glad to see it play higher.
November 3rd, 2010 at 2:59 pmBeerthirty
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:00 pmBOP – Oh yeah, and very glad that I am !
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:01 pmAREX call = uneventful. I am pleasantly suprised the stock continues to not sell off. EOG said "no comment" on Permian activities. Have not gotten to EP's call yet. Think I'll walk dog to clear head first, I have conf. call overload (CCO).
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:07 pmbond — given the styling of your current chair, i was thinking the same thing. Get well soon, my friend.
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:07 pmMy new best friend buddie pal, Jim Cramer just added HES to his model portfolio. Among other things he says HES Paris Basin assets are worth $12.00 a share to HES. If they are worth 12 to HES I wonder what they are worth to TRGL.
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:08 pmTks BOP, very kind of you, I am working hard on it and have an excellent prognosis going forward, just have to trade from a chair for three days every two weeks! Not too bad, thank goodness for technology.
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:10 pmWow, elijah. I sure missed the boat on Turgle. I keep thinking Tat will do a Turgle. But so far, Tat has only gone splat.
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:12 pmDarn camels.
CHK earnings out. Net income of 75c vs 30c. Revs of 2.58b vs 1.81b.
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:12 pmbond — an upbeat attitude like that will get you out of a LOT of trouble and tight places. "Not too bad." Right. You GO, guy!!
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:15 pmNY Fed indicates that there's actually another $250-300 billion getting thrown out of the helicopters:
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:28 pm"The FOMC also directed the Desk to continue to reinvest principal payments from
agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities into longer-term Treasury
securities. Based on current estimates, the Desk expects to reinvest $250 to $300
billion over the same period, though the realized amount of reinvestment will
depend on the evolution of actual principal payments.
Taken together, the Desk anticipates conducting $850 to $900 billion of purchases
of longer-term Treasury securities through the end of the second quarter. This
would result in an average purchase pace of roughly $110 billion per month,
representing about $75 billion per month associated with additional purchases and
roughly $35 billion per month associated with reinvestment purchases. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-03/new-york-fed-statement-on-more-purchases-of-treasury-securities-full-text.html
$100B here, $100B there, pretty soon you're talking real money, er… I mean confetti.
re 174. Not at all surprised. When do we see same from St Louis, Dallas etc…
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:30 pmRemember that GS trade from y'day?… buy puts on the VIX at 21.50? Well… VIX closed down 2.01 today at 19.56.
November 3rd, 2010 at 3:53 pmThere is at least ONE trader at GS doing the Happy Dance right about now.
Balt out after market..kept dividend at 16 cents
November 3rd, 2010 at 4:34 pmUpsized their line of credit 50 m which gives them breathing room so no secondary share dump until they are ready. Thats good news
So how excited to you get with a 64c annual divy rate? Stock is priced were it should be given current rates,imho
cwei..it beat my expectations on production rates expected 9500 per day for oil and it came in at 10,000 per day. i forgot about loss on oil hedges but if you adjust for that they exceeded analyst numbers and met my expectations. Good proxy for oil prices and so thinly traded, its hard to build a position. On those 200 point down days you might get a 4 dollar down move. So note to myself , buy anytime its below 60 with 80+ oil
November 3rd, 2010 at 4:41 pmThey hinted at big jump in proved reserves at year end
154 agreed
November 3rd, 2010 at 4:43 pmHere is what my new bestest friend old buddy pal Jim Cramer had to offer up on
November 3rd, 2010 at 4:45 pmTRGLHES."I am going to use some ……..profits to start a small position in Hess (HES:NYSE) ……..
I have had this stock on my radar screen for a while because of its high leverage to oil prices, its global upstream assets and improving balance sheet. It's a midsized integrated oil and gas company with exploration- and-production operations in U.S. onshore (Bakken Shale), deepwater Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, West Africa oil and Asian natural gas, and downstream assets are located in the U.S. Virgin Islands and New Jersey. Its commodity mix is 73%-27% oil/gas, so it's a very levered way to play the changes in the underlying oil price, which I believe will continue to work higher for the remainder of the year. In fact, natural gas production will account for just 3% of Hess' worldwide production in 2010-2011 — the lowest of the super majors.
The story is pretty simple: After years of high risk/high reward exploration (thus nicknamed "the cowboys"), the company has turned to a more realistic approach to finding oil and gas around the world and has put together a collection of assets that are a balanced blend of onshore and offshore projects. This portfolio could lead to increases to its production targets and positive catalysts which aren't fully reflected in the share price, as it is one of the cheapest integrated oil company in the group (behind Marathon (MRO:NYSE)).
The excitement in the near term will come from volume growth (and upside) from the Bakken Shale in North Dakota, where the company ultimately believes it will produce 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (or boepd) within five years from a standing start of 10,000 boepd at the beginning of 2010. Add on potential growth in six projects collectively from Norway, Southeast Asia and Gulf of Mexico assets along with the recent American Oil and Gas (AEZ:NYSE) acquisition, and the company is positioned to potentially drive production over 500,000 boepd by 2015 while adding to its reserve base — exceptionally strong visibility upon successful execution.
This kind of potential growth leads me to believe that its stated production growth of 3.5% is too conservative and closer to 5% (this excludes projects in Egypt, the North Sea, Brazil, Australia ….and the potential from the Paris Basin — potentially worth $12 a share to its asset value). " I'm sure he meant to say,TRGL TRGL TRGL TRGL" As these other projects are completed, the news flow will likely be positive catalysts for the shares. It has a cash balance of $1.4 billion, a declining debt-to-cap (23% currently with a goal to 15% by 2015) and the flexibility to expand its capex program for growth.
The most recent quarter was an earnings beat of 6 cents a share with strength in its E&P portfolio, with production ahead of plan in the U.S. and internationally. Downstream posted a loss, but retail marketing was an offset. Hess' downstream strategy is to manage its refining-and-marketing division for cash flow, and it does not undertake large- scale investments or capacity expansion. Keep in mind that the company derives 90% of its earnings from E&P and 10% from downstream. Bakken production was 16,000 boepd, and the exit rate is now at 18,000 boepd. The rig count rose in this region to 10 and supports the long-term growth potential out of this high-profile shale.
The company reiterated its 3% production target — again, something I believe has upside to and really the only pushback on the call. Cash-flow estimates were raised after the quarter's results, and the turnaround story is very much on track. At 5.1x enterprise-value-to-cash-flow, shares trade at a 10% discount to the group, and I believe that as the company delivers solid upstream results over the next few years, the discount will be eliminated.
chk looks good..I cant believe their volume growths. If ng could get back to 8, this is an atm
November 3rd, 2010 at 4:46 pmbot another 500,000 more acres in the marcelus for 850 m
CHK – good quarter, guidance kind of mixed, lower pricing hurting 2011 exp cash flow, higher volumes seen 2012 and higher cf then. Ops update kind of on the thin side on specifics, makes sense with the analyst day not that long ago. Niobrara mentioned as key among their oil plays but too early for well news yet.
November 3rd, 2010 at 4:52 pmLINE – new bestest friend old buddy pal Jim Cramer now touting LINE on show
November 3rd, 2010 at 5:30 pmFANTASY E & P TEAM
November 3rd, 2010 at 5:32 pmWhile contemplating my EOG wounds [short puts & long the stock], was shaken from my dark thoughts about EOG mgmt. by BOP's ever amazing, humorous, and pertinent analogies……………'taking a Bubble Bath with a Porcupine'.
Well if BOP can engage in fantasy……………and we have fantasy football, baseball & basketball teams ……………WHY NOT HAVE A FANTASY E& P TEAM?
Possible postions on the team would be:
~CEO
~COO
~CFO
~Chief Geologist [Chief Exploration Officer]
~Completions Manager
~Chief Landsman (or person to be politically correct).
Needless to say, there will not be anyone on my FANTASY E & P team from EOG.
LINE – now interviewing CEO Ellis
November 3rd, 2010 at 5:32 pmLINE at $35.10. I like how he pumps it right before it goes ex div, lol.
November 3rd, 2010 at 6:28 pm#138 BEXP…really looks good, technically speaking, nothing that I can see inhibiting BEXP from going higher near term…dialing back to the 30 min, if not already long, thinking that a pullback to $21.60 to $21.70 would be a place to consider a long…as far as very near term upside targets, the 30 min pattern suggests a $1 target from the break, so with this in mind the target would be $22.60…longer term the weekly and P&F chart suggest $25-$26
November 3rd, 2010 at 8:58 pmhttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280
crys zI want Fist-Full-of-Dollars Aubrey as my Landman, no one can buy acres like he can.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:16 pmThanks much JB, will vote in a bit,
Big upgrade on the 2012 liquids target range for CHK
Agree RMD. Comment in the quarterly that their plan is to buy big into a play, JV it with the new miniority holder picking up all or most of the least tab and part of course of the cost of drilling.
November 3rd, 2010 at 9:20 pmcrys — you say the nicest things… thank you!
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:21 pmMy pick for fantasy E&P CFO = Marc Rowland… anyone who can finance all the business permutations Aubrey comes up with… and still keep the company afloat after all these years (and several "near-death experiences") gets my vote for Best CFO.
Marc would NEVER issue "5.625% perpetual convertible preferred securities"… he wouldn't be able to look himself in the mirror the next day.
Voted, thanks again JB
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:25 pmtest test test
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:28 pmtesty testy 1,2,3
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:29 pmthat was fast
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:29 pmactive meter and cluster map disabled
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:30 pmcool, email notifier working too.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:30 pmty
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:30 pmgn
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:32 pmChief Geologist = Elliott "Oilfinder" Pew
November 4th, 2010 at 12:01 amor Jim Bob "Ultra-Deep" Moffatt
November 4th, 2010 at 12:02 amgn
ATPG…$14.45 is the resistance spot to watch today, a break out and hold of this level gets above the daily 200 day and also negates the 30 min descending triangle. The $14.45 zone also corresponds with the 30 min 100 period SMA, so an interesting technical confluence… Material support at $14…. 30 min updated.
November 4th, 2010 at 5:49 ambalt
November 4th, 2010 at 6:29 amhttp://www.tradewinds.no/drycargo/570079/baltic-bets-pay-off
JB — going to vote now. TY!
November 4th, 2010 at 7:32 am