02
Nov

Wednesday Morning After-Math

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Market Sentiment Watch: Futures non-committal on mixed bag of election results last night.  All eyes will be on the huge amount of data still left to be disclosed this week and the Fed statement today. EOG will clock in with the most disappointing guidance of the quarter and will get sacked for it (see Stuff section). I'll be on that call and a couple of others today, looking for play color.

Ecodata:

  • ADP data came in at +43,000 jobs, higher than expected.
  • We get ISM Services (F = 53.5%) and Factory Orders (F = 1.6%) at 10 am EST
  • We get auto sales for October later in the day (F = 12 mm)
  • Fed speaks regarding QE2 this afternoon

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – EOG
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,200
  • 100% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $3,300
  • 0% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • NBL – Sold the NBL $80 Nov. Call for $2.70, up 100%.

       

      BEXP – Added (3) BEXP $21 Calls for $0.80 with the stock off $0.45 following earnings and an operations update that are detailed in the post and before the conference call this morning.

ZIM (Zman Long Term Portfolio)

  • BEXP Trading Position added at $21.16, in addition to the long term core holdings here.
  • We will post a fresh portfolio summary here with tomorrow's post.

 

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil inched up $0.95 to close at $83.90 yesterday, in equity market, dollar driven trading. After the close, the API released an across the board bullish looking report (see below). This morning crude is trading up a buck.

Natural gas inched back up 4 cents to close the day at $3.87. We remain range bound. This morning gas is trading flat.

  • Tropics Watch: Nada affecting gas, Thomas going to be bad news for Haiti.

Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: Street is at 64 BCF for tomorrow’s report.

  • Last Week: 71 Bcf Injection
  • Last Year: 29 Bcf Injection
  • 5 Year Average: 33 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Hi: 64 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Low: 27 Bcf Withdrawal

Oil Inventory Preview


API Watch: Bullish

  • Crude: Down 4.137 mm barrels
    • Cushing: Down 0.9 mm barrels
  • Gasoline: Down 3.202 mm barrels
  • Distillates: Down 4.727 mm barrels

Stuff We Care About Today

EOG Earnings Brief - Reported In Line Quarter; Cuts Spending And Guides Down Hard

Huge guidance cuts:

  • 2010 organic growth forecast cut from 13 to 9%
  • 2011 was 19%, now 10% growth with oil volumes growing 53%
  • 2012 was 21%, now 12% with oil up 30%

Balance sheet: Net debt to cap hits 27%; this is above their target of 25% and while not a big deal the growth here prompted them to cut spending which in turn reduced the production guidance. They are now targeting a max net debt to cap of 30 to 35%. That's higher than I ever thought I'd see them go and while they can easily accommodate that level of debt it cuts against their debt leery grain. Just two years ago these guys were talking about how they admired XOM's debt free balance sheet and were angling to get there.  And still they will outspend cash flow in 2010 and likely again in 2011.

Operations Update Highlights:  To be overshadowed completely by guidance.

  • Eagle Ford Shale - lots of data leading EOG to be more encouraged about their strong positioning within the condensate rich portions of the play. 
  • Bakken - OK, not spectacular wells highlighted.
  • Barnett combo - some of the best wells reported to date in the play; 16rigs running.
  • Leonard (Avalon) Shale goes from reserve thoughs of 65 mm boe to > 65 mm boe as they derisk more acreage.
  • Niobrara: still in the "too soon to say" category on EUR, 3 rig program --no new well results.
  • Haynesville - Scaling back aggressive drilling plans, now drilling to hold sweet spots, and commenting that the rest of the acreage is mostly HBP. -

Nutshell: Good quarter but no one will care given the massively reduced guidance. Given time investors should take note that production guidance cuts were natural gas focused. 2011 was previously seen as averaging 63% production from liquids ... this is now projected to be 67%. The net impact is that EOG gets oilier, quicker than expected but they go further into debt than most people suspected. My sense is the stock gets punished for weeks to come. I continue to hold a starter position and may add but will be patient. Options trading there could be lucrative but I will be quick with sell trigger if I play at all.

Conference: Today, 9 am EST

 

Other Stuff

Conference Call Watch:

  • PQ at 9:30 am EST
  • SM at 10 am EST - just listening for Granite Wash and Niobrara color.
  • XEC at 1 pm EST
  • CWEI - 2:30 pm EST

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • HK - FBR maintains Outperform rating
  • REXX - RBC cuts by $2 to $18, maintains Outperform
  • OAS - Morgan Keegan downgrades to Market Perform
  • SM - RBC raises target by $5 to $45 but maintains Sector Perform

203 Responses to “Wednesday Morning After-Math”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:
    BP – Goldman ups to Buy on results, valuation

  2. 2
    choices Says:

    EOG-I am going to try to listen to call but guidance really sets me off-in August they were reaffirming 2010 guidance and now they are blaming NG prices some 2-3 months later-what did they think, some magical increase in prices would occur-jeez-I think these guys belong in the overpromise, underdeliver column and maybe in the incompetent management column as well-this is wrong, wrong, for so many people believing their narrative, "lumpiness"-

  3. 3
    bill Says:

    cwei reported .96 share– in that is one time gain of 3 m for sale of assets and 8 m loss on hedges, so adjusted for those 2 items is 1.41 vs analyst expectations of 1.12. Non cash Ga exp was higher than my model which was another 20 cents
    Oil production was 10,000 bbbls a day vs 8,900 last qtr and 9500 expected

  4. 4
    bill Says:

    Cwei cash flow was 5.00 for the qtr and 14.21 ytd

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Choices – listening to EOG now, will report back anything new, typical call for them so far, review the big picture on each play and then highlight a few "typical" wells.  I understand the lumpiness, that took place as they made their quarter on volumes … that has nothing to do with the extreme cut to guidance and your question is guidance. This sounds like them throwing the guidance towel, much like CHK did 2 years ago. Frustrating. They have never been overpromise – under deliver types in the past but they clearly did communicate the price risk inherent in their long term production targets. Not defending them in the least.

  6. 6
    bill Says:

    eog down 8 premarket wow

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    EOG –

    Revisions to numbers reasoning.

    At current prices they have "no interest in growing gas volumes"

    On oil, they underestimated the timing required for pattern drilling. Delays in fraccing. We are currently experiencing delays in almost every division … these delays won't go away any time soon … at least 100 wells being delayed now …

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Bill – I think out of the last 3 earnings releases they've taken a $5 hit at the open. I wrote last night something like $8 to $10 on the day and that I would not be quick to bottom fish in the common but that I might take a fast call trade here… we'll see, nothing so far really to inspire. If it is down $8 when the Fed says they will buy $2 T of bonds then it may get a pop … still listening. Q&A is going to be rough.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    EOG

    We plan to drill 0 Barnett gas wells in 2011.

  10. 10
    bill Says:

    exm reported 2 cents better

  11. 11
    bill Says:

    Id love to invest in hk and chk, cant do it with current low prices

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    EOG

    Bakken – no unusual declines in the Parshall core area – not sure how that can be with what WLL said last week.

    Saying the EFS could be bigger than the Bakken for them next year

    Niobrara – NE Colorado

    3 rigs – no real commentary , 2 recent wells which I had heard about at about 700 bopd each.

    Natural Gas Plays

    Haynesville – continuing to make good wells, IPs in the 20s and 30s MMcfepd range,

     

    Analyst Watch

    EOG – Howard Weil cuts them to Market Perform

     

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Bill – The comments on frac delays at the EFS not going away anytime soon should pressure HK and CHK today as well as some of the other players there.

  14. 14
    bill Says:

    do you think there will be a bounce back from initial down draft in eog

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    EOG Notes:

    We do not intend to sell or JV any of our horizontal oil plays

    We do intend to sell gassy assets, acreage, production …. you have to wonder at the timing of selling already HBP gassy assets given current gas prices.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    re 14. Yeah, probably so, but I think there will be lingering weakness here for several weeks. When the Street turns down on them and the big cap E&Ps it can stay down on it despite large drops.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    adding to 16, so I'm thinking there will be a chance to trade it but only for a very short term trade

    EOG Notes

    He expects NG rig count to drop by 200 rigs by mid 2011 – sounds fair, hard to tell what a gas rig is these days with plays like the Eagle Ford where you have either gas wells or liquids rich wells that have a lot of casinghead gas.

    Papa is negative on NG. Calling EOG an oil company now. Says there is no other E&P of their size growing oil production as fast as they which is what I was thinking with my nutshell comment.

    Q&A Started

    Joe Allman up first – you can almost here Mark Papa sigh …

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Eagle Ford has been one of the hotter plays within E&P, but low gas prices and the frac delays may take some of the shine off the play for the short term, potentially letting investment dollars slosh back up to North Dakota plays.

  19. 19
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Do the delays that EOG is talking about likely to effect the whole E&P sector. I know we talk about a game changer when areas get proven, is this a changer for your opinion about Papa?

  20. 20
    elduque Says:

    Good morning. What we are seeing is continuation of what you would expect when these cos don't have to drill to hold production. It is going to be lower guidance and what I would expect will be higher nat gas prices. We are getting closer.

    Is the bottom in on nat gas prices???  Only time and weather will tell.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    EOG – In 2011

    Divestitures: Will be selling a portion of the Marcellus and some non-core Eagle Ford. Have sold a small piece of the Niobrara 400K net acres, said they will be keeping most of it.

  22. 22
    RMD Says:

    another seller:  EOG to sell some HS assets.  Many sellers, few buyers = low prices.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Tom – they do affect everyone. It doesn't change my opinion on Mark but my sense is the Street is going to over do it on the downside before it settles down.

  24. 24
    bill Says:

    who is papa referring too on new oil play

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    re 22, he did say the HS will be small. Didn't say how big the Marcellus sale would be, but agree, people selling gas right now are going to find weaker and weaker prices. Recall two months ago that LINE, who are always on the hunt for bargains, say natural gas plays were starting to look more interesting to them than oil.

  26. 26
    bill Says:

    we need a pure pressure pumping company to invest in
    who makes this stuff (equipment)

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    #1 reason for pulling down estimates – lack of availability of frac equipment.   Makes you worry about a lot of peoples growth plans. If EOG can't get frac crews, you have to worry about someone like an MHR.

    Re 24, now sure, RMD, did you catch that?

     

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    re 26. BHI.

  29. 29
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Based on the latest CFPS #'s for EOG, do you have a range where is represents very good value? For the big picture, do you think E&P stocks may not be the best performing sector until some of the imbalances are taken care of.  

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    and HAL

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    re 29, let me circle back to that post call.

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader saying mrkt will be "boring until 2:15."  He is sitting on his hands right now.

  33. 33
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Nice call on CWEI, bill!

  34. 34
    RMD Says:

    27 I just happened to notice the comment…with hope in my heart.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Skipping the PQ call which started at the half hour to listen to this one until, 10 am est, then will switch to SM would like to hear their thoughts on EFS and Granite Wash and Niobrara.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    BEXP – Global Hunter hikes target from $25 to $29.50, stays at Buy.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Hear ya BOP on HT, would add maybe a little pop around 10 am EST on data but yeah, otherwise boring.

  38. 38
    RMD Says:

    It would seem there will be more gas assets for sale than the upstream MLP industry can absorb.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    EOG – how you get the next leg down, Leo Mariani, who works at RBC and who I worked with in a past life, asks the question … so if you have your asset sales as planned, do you still get to the 30 to 35% net debt to cap. Answer. Yes.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    re 38, right, which is good for the Upstream MLP Industry 😉

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    SM running hard pre call.

  42. 42
    tomdavis12 Says:

    PDE rumored to be for sale.

  43. 43
    bill Says:

    balt releases after market closes
    id sell today into earnings. They could get cute and raise the divy up to 20 cents but if they did they are trying to juice the stock for the secondary dump.
    The capes weakened in q3 and now the smaller sizes are weak in q4

  44. 44
    bill Says:

    sm wow

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    re 42, thanks, noted.

     

    EOG saying several months ago they were thinking they would need 3 weeks between the time they called the service company and the time the frac crew would be on site. Now they say it is 4 to 5 months. Hrrrmmm. I'm shocked at the magnitude of the miscalculation there. CHK and others have talked about some tightness but nothing like 4 to 5 months and if you are in the business let me know if you have heard something similar.

    To me, I think they "kitchen sinked" these estimates.

  46. 46
    jat Says:

    The p.p backlog can certainly extend out that long based on commentary from the svc companies… "we're booked through Q2 11, etc"  But I'm not in the industry.  I don't know how you could imagine a 3 week cycle.  Something I'm missing?  

  47. 47
    choices Says:

    EOG-somebody (did not get the name) asked, what has changed from August to now, obviously referring to reaffirming guidance in August-Papa dodged the question and went all the way back to April, said the frac situation has gotten worse.

  48. 48
    RMD Says:

    45 EOG just got it wrong on prices received, prices paid, volumes, etc.  They are human after all.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    If they are right about 4 to 5 months then your big EFS players probably need to have puts on them by me. Costs pressure on the fracs as well. This suggests the market is quite a bit tighter than people have thought in the play.

    In order of acres held:

    CHK

    EOG

    HK

    APC

    SM

    PXD

    SFY

    ROSE

    PXP

    MHR

    CXPO

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    re 46. If you didn't have firm service contracts in hand I don't know why you'd assume 3 weeks.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    EOG call ending, analysts universally unhappy, downgrades already started, look for more to come.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    SM 3Q call starting now

    http://sm-energy.com/

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    ISM Services at 54.3% vs 53.5% expected

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Factory orders up 2% vs 1.6% expected

  55. 55
    jat Says:

    Re 49, I'm unsure if it's really new news.  Obviously good for the svc companies but you can see it in the margins already.  You don't go from zero percent NAM margins to twenty percent by making donuts.
    I also thought PXD discussed a lot of this on their call when they went into why they themselves owned frac crews.  To imagine this is some sort of surprise since August seems a bit disingenuous to me.
    I'm uninvolved in EOG, thankfully.  I was asked on 10/26 if I wanted to short it and responded that it was probably the most large cap-shorted name by the hedge fund crowd.  Woops. Just cutting '10 probably wouldn't have killed it, IMO, but '11/12 and the new debt/cap discussion has done it in worse than I thought. 

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Jat – I knew it was tight but didn't think it was 4 to 5 months tight. Agree the 3 wk to 4-5 mo comment is silly.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Oil inventories in 20 minutes. Oil up 40 cents.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    SM – Growth revised higher due to Eagle Ford Shale, then Bakken. SM please share logistical secrets with EOG.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    BEXP waking up after a good qtr yesterday and a flattish day.

  60. 60
    bill Says:

    49 it will be interesting to see how chk is dealing with it

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    SM Notes

    – have secured a portion of their completion needs in the EFS and are working to get more secured.

    – Non-operated EFS acreage (APC operated) accelerating, and APC is going to JV some of their acreage so expecting another acceleration.

    – Bakken – fracced 3 long laterals that were parallel to each other in the same 2 section unit, waiting to flow each back until all 3 were finished (retained energy frac) that had a combined IP of 6,000 BOEpd. –

    – Woodford – about to shutter program as acreage is now HBP

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Bill – CHK has completion deals with the company that their CFO just left to run … they're probably all over the issue.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    But HK is catching some collateral damage this morning.

    SM Notes

    Niobrara & Granite Wash – nothing beyond the press release.

  64. 64
    bill Says:

    looking at sm hedges page 24 of presentation
    gas– great a +
    oil bad  D

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    BEXP within 15 cents of its all time high.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    RMD, WEST, did you note PETD on the tape with a Wolfberry acquisition?

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    EOG – no bounce yet, down $10.50.

  68. 68
    RMD Says:

    66 no; thanks.

  69. 69
    crysball Says:

    EGY
    S. Etame  field   is   smaller  than  expected. The  recently drilled discovery well and sidetrack s  indicate  it  will be  more  difficult  to produce (see slide #11 in the Rodman & Reneshaw Presetnation on the Vaalco wesite).  Probably one  devvelopment well  in 2011……..they will claim reserves  for the field  in 2010.
    The  Etame  7A  well   is  currently  being tied back [subsea]  to  the FPSO.The  sidetracks  on Southeeast  Etame  revealed  the  reserve potentail  is  MUCH  LARGER  than predicted,   and it  will take  more   Horizontal  wells  to  fully develop  the  field……reserves  will be clained  in 2010  and   another   horizontal development well probable for 2011, The just drilled  & completed Etame 7A OHGP   well  will go on production  in December.……….note  Etame 1-V  will be  shut down when   Etame 7-A goies  on  production……still looking  at   about  a 4,000 b/d net incease for  the Etame 7-A/ Etame 1-V switchout, and a reduced water cut.
    Ebouri  field   will also need  one more  horizontal well  to  fully  drain the field and   another   horizontal development well probable for 2011. There are  problems on the  Ebour  field [generator, then swithgear,] which  have caused  production to drop from 9,000 b/d back to 6,000 b/d. The  equipment to correct these  problems  is   on  site  and  will be installed in December………..getting production  back  up to  9,000 b/d.   They will also be modifying the  Ebouri platform  in 2011   to add  more  slots (at least 2 more possible  3) .
    South Tchibala  OHGP development   well  has  just  finished   and  is being  tied back  to the  open slot  on the  Avouma platform Production  will begin  in December 2010
    The   big  news  items:
    ~Angola  partner
    ~Total/Vaalco  on shore   Gabon [Mutamba] drilling plan
    ~Omangou  [Shallow  Offshore Gabon] Exploration  well …..spudding  about  now.
    ~Increasing  FPSO  capacity  abouve  25,000 b/d
    ~2011  Capex  and Drilling  plans
    will  be  discussed at  the CC  next  week.
     
    NOTE:  Valco  does  not  hedge  and  its  prices are based  on  Brent Crude…………..so they are loving the   Brent premium [to WTI].
     
    IMHO, Vaalco  is  taking care  of business……and in a  'kinder and gentler  way'   they  seem  to  be  following  the BEXP  theme  of  'LEAVE  NO OIL BEHIND'.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Circling back to Tom's ?'s

    Q) "Z: Based on the latest CFPS #'s for EOG, do you have a range where is represents very good value?

    A) That's a tough one to pin down. I own a small piece for the long term. The long term has not really changed as that is an asset value realization story. They are just getting there more slowly which does affect PV but the boe's are still there. I have always liked buy this one more on weakness than strength. The story is much improved relative to two years ago but you can't tell that by the stock price. Much of that chart is oil prices but part of it was the advent of the oil plays at their analyst conference in 2008. From a forward CFPS basis, I would say they are cheap any time they are under 7x normally but now, that's probably more like 6x or less. Recall that these guys for years were growing 1 to 3%. So a come down from 20 to 10% is still impressive growth for a company of this size. I have not backed into how much of a retreat we see in CFPS. It's not simply half due to production being oilier as a % of total.  But it will definitely get socked.

    Q) For the big picture, do you think E&P stocks may not be the best performing sector until some of the imbalances are taken care of. 

    A) in a minute…

  71. 71
    RMD Says:

    PETD acq. looks about like other Wolfberry acq. prices, but no info on where it was.  Checking on this.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    EIA Inventories:

    Crude up 2 mm barrels

    Gasoline down 2.7 mm barrels

    Distillates down 3.6 mm barrels

  73. 73
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    crys — re EGY, that is an incredibly detailed update and analysis.  Thank you.  I think the stock should head higher on those points.  you?

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    More EIA…

    Product Demand:

    Gasoline – backed off from last week's odd peak but still elevated all things considered.

    Distillates – up again seasonally but also strong in light of recent history.  Net, net, a positive and the reduction in stocks is more than a little welcome to the bull cause.

     

     

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Cushing was off 200K barrels, again in line with API

     

    SM Notes:  on their Atlas Niobrara well – it is a much better well than we expected, it is holding up better than their Bakken wells (better type curve). 3D on the way, more wells in 2011, not ready to announce victory, too early.  Second well drilled a lot differently than the first well, seems to be much less naturally fractured than the first well (Atlas well).

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    SM Notes

    Any type curve we have for the Bakken, this well (the Niobrara Atlas well) is better than that. Strong words. One well, but strong words.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    RMD – production on the acreage muddles it for me, what prices are you seeing (range?) on Wolfberry on raw land?

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    HK – Lazard cuts to Hold. Thanks for that one EOG.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    West – any thoughts on the XEC quarter when you get a chance?

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Bill, Jat, others re EFS and HK – RJ out with a note saying great quarter, headwinds of higher service costs in EFS/Haynesville prompt us to stay at mkt perform.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    EOG – Goldman took these guys to Buy – Conviction List after the analyst meeting. Wonder if that is still the case or they remove it tomorrow and we see another downdraft. GS should really change the name of that list.

  82. 82
    bill Says:

    The prime motivation for drilling for hk is to retain leases. Do they get to retain lease if they drill it but dont complete it?
    I dont think they mind. But this backlog (uncompleted wells) will keep ng down for the next few years

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the update on EGY Crys. Will get around to it.

    RMD – data point on Wolfberry – says $1.4 to $1.5 mm well cost.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Bill – I know you have to get it flowing, cannot drill and TA and wait for prices to rise. I think if it is on the "to frac list" that you are OK on moving it towards production to get the area patterned out for HBP.

  85. 85
    Geno Says:

    RE49 CHK owns a piece of a frac company and Encana is building there own from what I hear could start to see JV with the pumping services companies to lock in crews

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    GM sales up 7.1 %, better than expected.

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    Geno – right, Fractech. I bet with the new CFO the thought there is to take that thing public.

  88. 88
    bill Says:

    87 Id like as piece of that and creative asset monetization for aubrey

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Oil up 75 cents now, on the whole, bullish numbers. Imports did back way off to offset part of last week's pop (govt smoothing) but refining fell as well yielding the bump in crude stocks. Utilization is probably at the low for the year now.

     

    Not that this is a problem for oil but it is interesting to see lower 48 volumes climbing now even with the moratorium. Bakken, bakken, bakken. 

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    Still no rally in EOG, after that call I'm not surprised. You have the lower production in hand but analysts will have to guesstimate on a 2011 capital budget (not provided until next call), rising service costs, undetermined asset sale proceeds in a weak, buyer's market, and the impact this will have on their balance sheet.  So the reluctance to bottom fish is pretty fair.

  91. 91
    bill Says:

    The overall market is ready for a 200 point down draft, imho

  92. 92
    crysball Says:

    EGY,
    Bobby ,  for years  has been 'SELLING THE SIZZLE' [GROWTH],but not delivering  on  it….for a varitey of reasons (not all within their contol).
    EGY has a very nigh % of institutional  holding,  but they are losing patience.
    SHOW ME  THE BEEF!
    Bobby   needs  to deliver on the growth………………until he does   the share price  will    languish.
    All IMHO.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    re 92. A problem common to many small cap, offshore E&Ps. I'm thinking the same applies to TAT right now.

  94. 94
    choices Says:

    http://www.gasfrac.com/
    talking my book dept and FWIW,
    GFS.V a small Canadian startup using LPG fracturing process, -Q3 earnings 9 Nov-Q2 earnings M D & E was informative, operations just beginning in Texas, continues in Canada-process has patents pending, met with understandable skepticism on this board by industry veterans-risk of defensible patents if the process gains support.
    I bought in Sep 2010 ~$6, now trading ~$8.50
    I'm not sure if the small size of the company will allow it to capitalize on this fracing bottleneck-Q3 M D & A may have more info.

  95. 95
    cargocult Says:

    BOP- how is the little dog reacting to last nights election, if at all? Are we looking at a weaker dollar as some are predicting and if so what happens to the price of oil?

  96. 96
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bobby Gerry is a nice and smart enough man… but he's getting long in the tooth.  He sits on 3 public boards (incl EGY) and a private one.  He gets paid a lot and he doesn't have to work very hard.  Russ Scheirman (COO) is incredibly bright, but I don't know his level of enthusiasm for growth (could be high, don't know).  He is well-paid too… but no where near Mr. Gerry.  And Russ doesn't sit on any boards. 
     
    EGY has lots of cash and international oily production.  Mr. Gerry should "do the right thing" and merge with a domestic, gassy company, looking to delever their balance sheet.  Then Mr. Gerry should step aside and concentrate on his community activities.  This would be a great time for that to happen (cheap gas assets).  EGY needs staff, so can't just buy gassy assets… they need the personel to go with them.  Wonder if there are any private, levered, shallow GoM gassy companies that would be a good match? 
     
    But EGY is a Strategic Activity and Management Succession, just waiting to happen.  That said, it's been sitting in that mode for quite some time…

  97. 97
    bill Says:

    useg witha mid day update
     
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Energy-Corp-Announces-pz-1564562380.html?x=0&.v=1

  98. 98
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    cargo — little dog is looking at the Master.  The size of the stick in the Master's hand got smaller… but, the Master needs to lay it down and say "good doggie." 
     
    It's a sunny day, the field is green, other dogs are out playing… all we need is some assurance that the thwackings have ceased… and a little nudge and a smile… Then it's Doggie Park Play Day.  And all the fun that comes with that.

  99. 99
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    As far as Fed Policy… doesn't do any good, to shove food down the doggy's throat, if he can't run around and expend energy.  It will just clog up his little arteries and he will get sick and…..

  100. 100
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z; So is it safe to say that a figure for CFPS for '11 & '12 for EOG is just a difficult guess at the moment? Accordingly as the sellsiders all come down tommorrow. Another $5 to $10/ sh is not out of the question.

  101. 101
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    What I like about oil …
     
    Weak USD ==> oil goes up
     
    Strong US economy ==> oil goes up
     
    Inflation kicks in ==> oil goes up
     
    China continues to grow ==> oil goes up
     
    US economy gets weaker from here ==> oil stays flat to down
     
    So, more ways and scenarios for oil to go UP, than down, methinks.

  102. 102
    PackMan Says:

    Hello Z, everyone.
    EOG – getting a licking .. no questions; will read up on the chatter here.  Fortunately, was not long, but am short puts.
    BOP – Good night last night overall !
    also, bought some CIGX today at 1.79 … still like it ?

  103. 103
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PackMan — it was a good night, agreed.  Still, some old faces returning that I was hoping not to have to look at anymore.  One never gets exactly what one wants, eh?
     
    Nothing has changed in my thinking about CIGX.  If anything, evidence that inVentiv is expanding current marketing past the Virginia test market tells me they are seeing positive results.  Star Scientific is not paying for the marketing… inVentiv is.  Only negative in the near-term is the inevitable equity-raise.  But will probably be done with current shareholders and presented as a "done-deal."  Looking forward to parsing their Q, when it comes out.

  104. 104
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    DVN just went bonkers… any particular reason??

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    Sorry for the delay had to take a call after the SM call ended.

    Tom – I would say the range of estimates on 2011 and 2012 will widen. All of them will come down substantially. NAVs will drop as well. People are negative on the name but most will not have new numbers until tomorrow or Friday cranked through their models. I think it is not done yet falling but that it won't all be straight down (some mid day pops to be me with selling) and some, "this is the end of the drop" knife catching tomorrow … which will likely be met with selling. I like it long term, here and higher. Story is by no means disrupted by this by they have taken a hit to credibility with the Street and with me.

  106. 106
    bill Says:

    bop – atpg
    you might like to read this
    http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=111444

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    DVN talking about spending less on dry gas, selling some things, seeing modest service cost creep.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    Re 101 – haha, well said!

  109. 109
    bill Says:

    Interesting letter by Einhorn

    http://cache.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2010/11/Greenlight-Q3-2010-Letter.pdf

  110. 110
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill #106 — nice discussion about how to value and trade distressed debt.  The US tranche of those ATPG bonds are 144a (private placement).  I tried to buy some of the euro-bond tranche in a managed account, but can't (without setting up an offshore account).  So, felt like a hungry kid with his nose pressed to the glass, looking at a warm, inviting Thanksgiving dinner, but shivering outside in the cold with no way in!

  111. 111
    irongate Says:

    just passing this along (that 's circulating trading desks)…. c/b the begining of the QE2 unwind…. (or someone's guess at lower QE2)
    hearing from a customer on gold:
    Big seller of gold here, GCZ0. Looks like a screen seller; 2 seperate legs lower; +/- 25k contracts hit the tape…. over the last 10 minutes. 1327.10 low. We saw a large buyer back on 10/29 of 10k at the 1350 level – could be a liquidation….

  112. 112
    PackMan Says:

    BOP — fer sure; Reid, Pelosi, Frank & Rangel are a few that come to mind.

  113. 113
    choices Says:

    EOG-FWIW:  P & F Chart has bearish price obj of 73-do not think, however, that JB places too much emphasis on P & F price obj's.
    To my mind, this is dead money until (and if) they get their narrative to fit their results, maybe sometime in late 2011-huge credibility problem-I'm thoroughly pissed and bleeding badly but I was, emphasize was, overloaded so it is probably my own stupidity.

  114. 114
    bill Says:

    110, lol  Interesting that Einhorn uses free cash flow in his DCF analysis on st joe paper
    In our ep world, we look at multiple's on gross cash flow. Im starting to wonder out loud what good is 200 m in quarterly cash flow, if you have to spend 250 m to get it. almost everyone of our ep names spend every dollar of cash they can get their hands on. When do these names start generating excess cash flow

  115. 115
    bill Says:

    If gold falls so does oil

  116. 116
    zman Says:

    You can use FCF, it's just a different range than with CFPS. CFPS is still much more telling than EPS which is what most stocks outside our realm trade on.

  117. 117
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PackMan — don't forget Babs!  sheesh….

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    Market / group reddening up in front of the fed, all of this trading aside from the company specific stories is noise.

    BEXP acting like it wants to take out the all time high but it needs the market to get un-nervous.

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    SSN volume very low for it at 100K shares. Notice that Niobrara news quarter to date from the major players has been almost non-existent. No negatives really, just lack of news flow. The SM news is nice but it's one well. Early, early there. Betting after all this silence that CHK is mum on their two wells as well.

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    Last week was the highest for distillate demand since Spring 2009. It does not appear to be a resurgence in imports. My weekly check of truckloads in the US has shown a continued marked improvement. Interesting since stocks have been bloated for so long but are now coming off pretty quickly. We fell below year ago levels for the first time in a long time with this last reading the surplus to the 5 year average fell to 19% (it got as high as 30% last Spring. 

  121. 121
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Some thoughts and predictions from a large trading desk for Fed language around this afternoon's QE2 announcement —
     
    We expect that statement will announce an intention to purchase $500 billion of longer-dated Treasury securities over the next 6 months. In addition, we expect the statement will express a willingness, but not necessarily a bias, to further increase asset purchases if warranted by economic conditions. Enhancing the extended period language by tying it more closely to observable economic variables may be an option, but we don’t think it’s an option they will exercise at this meeting.  We believe that for this week’s meeting only Treasuries will be mentioned as an asset to be purchased and think the language will refer to “up to” $500 billion, consistent with previous Fed asset purchase announcements.

  122. 122
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    President Obama's press conf starts in about 1/2 hour too.

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Re 121 – thanks much. Re 122 – probably the most important speech of his presidency.

    Analyst Watch:

    EOG – Citi cuts them to Hold mid day.

     

    BOP – got tied up, will read that USEG pr now.

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    By the way, when I talk about check truckloads, I use this site which is monitored by some Street types in the transport industry as a gauge of truckloads rolling.

    http://www.landstarbroker.com/

    The number in the upper right has been rising for months now from lows around 1,000 back 18 months ago.

  125. 125
    RMD Says:

    choices re: 94  AREX talked about maybe using propane to frac wells.  I don't know which kind of well/which horizon they were talking about testing this way, nor if that is what John Ely is consulting on. John is consulting on the Cinco1601 Wolfcamp recompletion.

  126. 126
    zman Says:

    Re USEG – nothing incremental in terms of well results as BEXP had the Brad Olson 2 well in their slide show yesterday. The acquisition of 11,160 acres in Montana that they think look geologically similar to Rough Rider is news. That area that BEXP has 3D over is Ghost Rider / Pale Rider. It will be interesting to see who drills it for USEG or if they do another deal with BEXP. Probably worth $3 to $4,000 per acre. PR doesn't mention what they paid and it depends on how contiguous it is and exactly where it and they were sketchy on that. Will be on their quarterly call next week. 

  127. 127
    VTZ Says:

    FWIW – Don't let anyone shake you out of gold based on whatever is or isn't said by the Fed today regardless of how it's trading.
     
    Noise, noise and more noise. Shakedown in progress for all the weak hands and suckers.

  128. 128
    VTZ Says:

    Barring a complete overkill announcement from the Fed (which I doubt, I agree with something along the lines of 121), there will be another sell off today I think later in the day. A nice place to initialize a position if you don't already have one.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    Wyoming had something to say, I thought on propane fracs, will go check. Any other completion engineers please sound of if you have thoughts. Thanks.

  130. 130
    VTZ Says:

    http://citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/goldman-sachs-predicts-another-2-trillion-of-qe/a443986
    Last on QE, but I'll stop spamming now until we see some announcement.

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    XEC Call in 3 minutes:

    http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/3/117243.html

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    URGENT

    Please please please bookmark the backup site. 

    http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com

  133. 133
    elduque Says:

    I like this site better. The other one comes in black.

  134. 134
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    that was funny, elduque  😉

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    Eld – how about now?

  136. 136
    zman Says:

    Thanks Scott. You are truly underpaid. 

    If you are in Oceanside California please send me an email … there is a good chance you are about to get blocked. 

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    Bill – Very nice call on CWEI yesterday. Did they live up to your production thoughts?

  138. 138
    zman Says:

    JB – Can you look at BEXP for me when you get a chance, five cents off the all time high. Fundamentals continue to improve …. just wondering if you think it has legs for a move higher and how much in the near term. Not concerned on the core, wondering about my trading call yesterday. 

  139. 139
    elduque Says:

    now it is white. How did you do that?

  140. 140
    zman Says:

    That's actually pretty easy. S&P now suddenly likes QE2v600B.

  141. 141
    zman Says:

    BEXP at all time highs. Yippee Skippee. 

  142. 142
    VTZ Says:

    RE 140 – Probably because the door is left wide open for the amount to be more than 600B. There is no way that if they spend that much they are going to stop at just that much. Next month, when there is equally bad data they will increase it so the amount is likely to be above 600 by Q2 and to be extended beyond.

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    re 142 – right, kind of like E&P company spending. The lack of discipline in the E&P crowd has been repeatedly cured over the years by crashing prices as a result of over spending leaving them with crushing debt loads and reorganization with few players living on to see the next boom price time. I wonder if there is a parallel. 

  144. 144
    elduque Says:

    I think we who have suffered with Nat Gas are in for better times. Not only are the cos. actually cutting back production, but somebody in Washington finally got the message.

  145. 145
    zman Says:

    What exactly did the President say about NG his speech?

  146. 146
    zman Says:

    Please report any site slowness. 

  147. 147
    DrLink Says:

    Basically that there is agreement between the two sides (Dems and R's) that we have a lot of natural gas and we should be open to looking into taking advantage of it (took him long enough)

  148. 148
    zman Says:

    NG truly a win-win.

    Job creation on the drilling and midstream side

    Job creation at the big 3 as they produce NG cars

    If I were the President I'd declare a war on imported oil. Promote dual fuel (gasoline/NG) cars and then tell the nightly news broadcast to run the mogas/ngas differential on the screen using avg nationwide pricing. Tell the consumer this is how much you save this month by filling up at home with NG. Then run another ticker that shows the emission reduction. I can go on and on as long as the site stays up. 

  149. 149
    zman Says:

    Thanks DRL – I'm going to find the transcript. That's a basically toothless comment from him. Candidate Obama said much the same and then went all battery batty. 

  150. 150
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    AREX – Hillard Lyons takes target from $13 to $20

  151. 151
    scoop006 Says:

    ZMAN: ANY THOUGHTS ON APA THEY REPORT AH TODAY

  152. 152
    bondbuddha Says:

    SLD my BEXP Nov 21's frm my chemo chair for 69% profit, tks Z !

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    Ram – did you find your way back here?

    KOG reports Thursday for a Friday call.   Should have a couple of more wells to talk about of the 7 to be completed by year end. Sense is they put in strong sequential production growth.

  154. 154
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GM just officially launched its IPO with a $26-29/share price talk.
     
    I would sooner take a bubble bath with a porcupine than buy GM shares… I don't care if they go up.  That's blood money.  (Just ask the GM pensioners who owned GM debt.)

  155. 155
    choices Says:

    #125-thanks for comment, RMD
    Wyoming was skeptical but i believe it was for safety reasons-company claims it has same insurance rating as conventional fracing-stk selling off today, it is volatile.

  156. 156
    zman Says:

    Scoop – I have not given them a whit of thought of late, and have not seen anything fresh so I'm useless on that one at the moment.

    Bond – very glad it worked out for ya. 

     

  157. 157
    ram Says:

    Yes.  I am always here unless I get blocked.

  158. 158
    zman Says:

    re 154. Fantastic. I just broke a rib. 

  159. 159
    zman Says:

    Re 157. We would never block you. Unless you are in Oceanside. Which I see that you are not. 

  160. 160
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bond — are you in Houston?

  161. 161
    RMD Says:

    150 on AREX is just catching up to everyone else.  They arestill low, I hope.

  162. 162
    zman Says:

    RMD – I plan to listen to the AREX replay. 

  163. 163
    zman Says:

    Reporting before the open:

    APA, ATPG, CHK, PVA, RIG, SU, SFY, UPL. No owned names by me, interested in ATPG, SFY, UPL. Want to hear what CHK has to say about the Niobrara (probably nothing) 

  164. 164
    zman Says:

    BEXP tapping $22 at the close, I thought yesterday's trading was odd, glad to see it play higher. 

  165. 165
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty

  166. 166
    bondbuddha Says:

    BOP – Oh yeah, and very glad that I am !

  167. 167
    RMD Says:

    AREX call = uneventful. I am pleasantly suprised the stock continues to not sell off.  EOG said "no comment" on Permian activities.  Have not gotten to EP's call yet.  Think I'll walk dog to clear head first, I have conf. call overload (CCO).

  168. 168
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bond — given the styling of your current chair, i was thinking the same thing.  Get well soon, my friend.

  169. 169
    elijahwc Says:

    My new best friend buddie pal, Jim Cramer just added HES to his model portfolio.  Among other things he says HES Paris Basin assets are worth $12.00 a share to HES.  If they are worth 12 to HES I wonder what they are worth to TRGL.
     

  170. 170
    bondbuddha Says:

    Tks BOP, very kind of you, I am working hard on it and have an excellent prognosis going forward, just have to trade from a chair for three days every two weeks! Not too bad, thank goodness for technology.

  171. 171
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Wow, elijah.  I sure missed the boat on Turgle.  I keep thinking Tat will do a Turgle.  But so far, Tat has only gone splat. 
     
    Darn camels.

  172. 172
    elduque Says:

    CHK earnings out. Net income of 75c vs 30c. Revs of 2.58b vs 1.81b.

  173. 173
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bond — an upbeat attitude like that will get you out of a LOT of trouble and tight places.  "Not too bad."  Right.  You GO, guy!! 

  174. 174
    Dman Says:

    NY Fed indicates that there's actually another $250-300 billion getting thrown out of the helicopters:
     
    "The FOMC also directed the Desk to continue to reinvest principal payments from
    agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities into longer-term Treasury
    securities.  Based on current estimates, the Desk expects to reinvest $250 to $300
    billion over the same period, though the realized amount of reinvestment will
    depend on the evolution of actual principal payments.
    Taken together, the Desk anticipates conducting $850 to $900 billion of purchases
    of longer-term Treasury securities through the end of the second quarter.  This
    would result in an average purchase pace of roughly $110 billion per month,
    representing about $75 billion per month associated with additional purchases and
    roughly $35 billion per month associated with reinvestment purchases. "
     
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-03/new-york-fed-statement-on-more-purchases-of-treasury-securities-full-text.html
     
    $100B here, $100B there, pretty soon you're talking real money, er… I mean confetti.
     

  175. 175
    zman Says:

    re 174. Not at all surprised. When do we see same from St Louis, Dallas etc…

  176. 176
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Remember that GS trade from y'day?… buy puts on the VIX at 21.50?  Well… VIX closed down 2.01 today at 19.56. 
     
    There is at least ONE trader at GS doing the Happy Dance right about now.

  177. 177
    bill Says:

    Balt out after market..kept dividend at 16 cents
    Upsized their line of credit 50 m which gives them breathing room so no secondary share dump until they are ready. Thats good news
    So how excited to you get with a 64c annual divy rate? Stock is priced were it should be given current rates,imho

  178. 178
    bill Says:

    cwei..it beat my expectations on production rates expected 9500 per day for oil and it came in at 10,000 per day. i forgot about loss on oil hedges but if you adjust for that they exceeded analyst numbers and met my expectations. Good proxy for oil prices and so thinly traded, its hard to build a position. On those 200 point down days you might get a 4 dollar down move. So note to myself , buy anytime its below 60 with 80+ oil
    They hinted at big jump in proved reserves at year end

  179. 179
    bill Says:

    154 agreed

  180. 180
    elijahwc Says:

    Here is what my new bestest friend old buddy pal Jim Cramer had to offer up on TRGL HES.
    "I am going to use some ……..profits to start a small position in Hess (HES:NYSE) ……..
    I have had this stock on my radar screen for a while because of its high leverage to oil prices, its global upstream assets and improving balance sheet. It's a midsized integrated oil and gas company with exploration- and-production operations in U.S. onshore (Bakken Shale), deepwater Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, West Africa oil and Asian natural gas, and downstream assets are located in the U.S. Virgin Islands and New Jersey. Its commodity mix is 73%-27% oil/gas, so it's a very levered way to play the changes in the underlying oil price, which I believe will continue to work higher for the remainder of the year. In fact, natural gas production will account for just 3% of Hess' worldwide production in 2010-2011 — the lowest of the super majors.
    The story is pretty simple: After years of high risk/high reward exploration (thus nicknamed "the cowboys"), the company has turned to a more realistic approach to finding oil and gas around the world and has put together a collection of assets that are a balanced blend of onshore and offshore projects. This portfolio could lead to increases to its production targets and positive catalysts which aren't fully reflected in the share price, as it is one of the cheapest integrated oil company in the group (behind Marathon (MRO:NYSE)).
    The excitement in the near term will come from volume growth (and upside) from the Bakken Shale in North Dakota, where the company ultimately believes it will produce 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (or boepd) within five years from a standing start of 10,000 boepd at the beginning of 2010. Add on potential growth in six projects collectively from Norway, Southeast Asia and Gulf of Mexico assets along with the recent American Oil and Gas (AEZ:NYSE) acquisition, and the company is positioned to potentially drive production over 500,000 boepd by 2015 while adding to its reserve base — exceptionally strong visibility upon successful execution.
    This kind of potential growth leads me to believe that its stated production growth of 3.5% is too conservative and closer to 5% (this excludes projects in Egypt, the North Sea, Brazil, Australia ….and the potential from the Paris Basin — potentially worth $12 a share to its asset value).    " I'm sure he meant to say,TRGL TRGL TRGL TRGL"     As these other projects are completed, the news flow will likely be positive catalysts for the shares. It has a cash balance of $1.4 billion, a declining debt-to-cap (23% currently with a goal to 15% by 2015) and the flexibility to expand its capex program for growth.
    The most recent quarter was an earnings beat of 6 cents a share with strength in its E&P portfolio, with production ahead of plan in the U.S. and internationally. Downstream posted a loss, but retail marketing was an offset. Hess' downstream strategy is to manage its refining-and-marketing division for cash flow, and it does not undertake large- scale investments or capacity expansion. Keep in mind that the company derives 90% of its earnings from E&P and 10% from downstream. Bakken production was 16,000 boepd, and the exit rate is now at 18,000 boepd. The rig count rose in this region to 10 and supports the long-term growth potential out of this high-profile shale.
    The company reiterated its 3% production target — again, something I believe has upside to and really the only pushback on the call. Cash-flow estimates were raised after the quarter's results, and the turnaround story is very much on track. At 5.1x enterprise-value-to-cash-flow, shares trade at a 10% discount to the group, and I believe that as the company delivers solid upstream results over the next few years, the discount will be eliminated.

  181. 181
    bill Says:

    chk looks good..I cant believe their volume growths. If ng could get back to 8, this is an atm
    bot another 500,000 more acres in the marcelus for 850 m

  182. 182
    zman Says:

    CHK – good quarter, guidance kind of mixed, lower pricing hurting 2011 exp cash flow, higher volumes seen 2012 and higher cf then. Ops update kind of on the thin side on specifics, makes sense with the analyst day not that long ago. Niobrara mentioned as key among their oil plays but too early for well news yet.

  183. 183
    elijahwc Says:

    LINE – new bestest friend old buddy pal Jim Cramer now touting LINE on show

  184. 184
    crysball Says:

    FANTASY  E & P TEAM
    While  contemplating  my   EOG  wounds [short puts & long the stock], was  shaken  from  my dark thoughts  about  EOG mgmt.  by  BOP's  ever amazing, humorous,    and   pertinent  analogies……………'taking  a Bubble Bath with a Porcupine'.
    Well  if  BOP can  engage  in  fantasy……………and   we  have  fantasy football, baseball & basketball teams ……………WHY   NOT  HAVE  A FANTASY   E& P TEAM?
    Possible  postions    on the team  would be:
    ~CEO
    ~COO
    ~CFO
    ~Chief  Geologist [Chief Exploration Officer]
    ~Completions  Manager
    ~Chief  Landsman (or person to be politically correct).
    Needless to say, there  will not  be  anyone   on my  FANTASY E & P team  from   EOG.
     

  185. 185
    elijahwc Says:

    LINE – now interviewing CEO Ellis

  186. 186
    zman Says:

    LINE at $35.10.  I like how he pumps it right before it goes ex div, lol. 

  187. 187
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #138 BEXP…really looks good,  technically speaking, nothing that I can see inhibiting BEXP from going higher near term…dialing back to the 30 min, if not already long, thinking that a pullback to $21.60 to $21.70 would be a place to consider a long…as far as very near term upside targets, the 30 min pattern suggests a $1 target from the break, so with this in mind the target would be $22.60…longer term the weekly and P&F chart suggest  $25-$26  
     http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  188. 188
    RMD Says:

    crys zI want Fist-Full-of-Dollars Aubrey as my Landman, no one can buy acres like he can.

  189. 189
    zman Says:

    Thanks much JB, will vote in a bit,

    Big upgrade on the 2012 liquids target range for CHK

    Agree RMD. Comment in the quarterly that their plan is to buy big into a play, JV it with the new miniority holder picking up all or most of the least tab and part of course of the cost of drilling.

  190. 190
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    crys — you say the nicest things… thank you!
     
    My pick for fantasy E&P CFO = Marc Rowland… anyone who can finance all the business permutations Aubrey comes up with… and still keep the company afloat after all these years (and several "near-death experiences") gets my vote for Best CFO. 
     
    Marc would NEVER issue "5.625% perpetual convertible preferred securities"… he wouldn't be able to look himself in the mirror the next day.

  191. 191
    zman Says:

    Voted, thanks again JB

  192. 192
    zman Says:

    test test test

  193. 193
    petra Says:

    testy testy 1,2,3

  194. 194
    zman Says:

    that was fast

  195. 195
    petra Says:

    active meter and cluster map disabled

  196. 196
    zman Says:

    cool, email notifier working too. 

  197. 197
    zman Says:

    ty

  198. 198
    petra Says:

    gn

  199. 199
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Chief Geologist = Elliott "Oilfinder" Pew

  200. 200
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    or Jim Bob "Ultra-Deep" Moffatt
     
    gn

  201. 201
    Jerome Blank Says:

    ATPG…$14.45 is the resistance spot to watch today, a break out and hold of  this level gets above the daily 200 day and also negates the 30 min descending triangle. The $14.45 zone also corresponds with the 30 min 100 period SMA, so an interesting technical confluence… Material support at $14…. 30 min updated. 

  202. 202
    bill Says:

    balt
     
    http://www.tradewinds.no/drycargo/570079/baltic-bets-pay-off

  203. 203
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — going to vote now.  TY!

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