15
Oct
T.G.I.F. – I Get By With A Little Help From My Ben
Market Sentiment Watch: The return of malaise. Economic data pointing to better than expected results and Ben Bernanke is speaking at the Boston Fed this morning and his comments such as "short term rates are too high" and "inflation will remain below target for some time" are pleasing equity futures. MMR kicks off energy earnings season next Monday but the heart of the season for the E&Ps won't hit until the end of the month. I'll have a Bakken update piece out on Monday.
Ecodata Watch:
- CPI was 0.1% vs 0.2% expected; core came in at 0.0% (as Ben said, below target despite some comments to the contrary on PPI yesterday)
- Empire State was 15.7 vs 6.5 expected (this one jumps about a lot but that's a strong number)
- Retail sales was 0.6% (0.4% core) vs 0.5% expected (also stout)
- We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST, forecast is 69.8 with a last reading of 68.2.
In today's post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Natural Gas Inventory Preview
- Stuff We Care About Today – SSN
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch:
ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):
- $5,200
- 100% Cash
- Yesterday’s Trades: None
ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
- $7,600
- 46% Cash
- Yesterday’s Trades:
- MMR – Added (5) November $18 calls for $2.20 with the stock at $18.40. Earnings Monday should provide an interesting operations update.
- WILDZ - MMR – Added (10) October $19 MMR calls for $0.56 with the stock at $19.18, up 2.5%. Obviously high, high risk, but small money trade.
- WILDZ - MMR – Added (10) more October $19 Calls for $0.33 with the stock at 18.83.
Commodity Watch
Crude oil retreated $0.32 to close at $82.82.69 yesterday after the EIA reported a fairly bullish looking set of numbers but the equity market took a breather. This morning crude is trading flat.
Natural gas closed off 4 cents at $3.66 after EIA reported an in line storage number .... a storage number that was still a record for this week of the year due to mild weather and over production. This morning gas is trading flat.
- Tropics Watch: Paula goes away; nothing on the horizon at the moment.
Oil Inventory Review
ZComment: Utilization fell to 81.9% which should be about the low this season and which equates to daily consumption by refineries of just under 14 mm bopd (also the low). The numbers in the report were on the whole pretty strong and should improve in coming wees as demand for distillates picks up and refining stays flattish, allowing inventories to erode.
Natural Gas Storage Review
ZComment: Mild weather is bad. Target for end of season peak storage is moving towards the 3,750 to 3,800 Bcf range. This will keep prices weaker longer in the winter.
Stuff We Care About Today
SSN Operations Update: Final Goshen County, Wyoming Acreage Closing
- SSN received an additional $3.523 mm from CHK yesterday and another $0.3 mm is onn the way to wrap up the deal.
- SSN says in the press release total consideration is $73.673 vs a prior estimate of $74 mm but if you go back to when this all started the range was $61 to $79 mm. Not bad for little SSN vs goliath CHK.
- That should put net cash on the balance sheet at $66.7 mm ($77.8 mm less debt of $11.1mm ) or $0.80 per share or 65% of last night's closing price of $1.23.
- Samson also points out CHK's analyst day comment about wells in the Niobrara having average recoverable reserves of 500,000 boe per well. In their own NAV model, SSN has been using 413,000 BOE, which got them to a long range target of about $10 per share. If it all works this would probably be a fair number for their remaining 17,000 acres. CHK also made the comment that the play was fairly homogeneous. I think this comment may be a bit early, based on the lack of real understanding regard broad swaths of the known limits of the play. I plan to stick to my $2.10 acreage and other asset and cash derived back of the envelope NAV until I see the results of the first 2 CHK wells on the acreage SSN sold. After that I'll likely call part of the acreage de-risked and adjust my NAV upward as I think the results warrant.
- I don't think we will have long to wait to find out. CHK has spud two wells on the acreage that SSN sold and we should get results on those by year end.
- I asked management about why CHK simply didn't take all of SSN's acreage with the presupposition that the reason was that SSN would not sell all their acreage. That's correct, they would not.
- I also asked if there was a geological reason why CHK would not have wanted the acreage that SSN retained. SSN says they are at least equal and that an argument can be made that SSN acreage is superior. I plan to get into that argument with Terry Barr, the president of SSN soon but am thinking it's a question of play thickness to the north and didn't want to wear out my welcome.
- But I did ask one more question, because I'm apt to ask a lot of questions when I get someone's attention. I inquired about the possibility of HAL being a working interest partner in the retained Niobrara acreage and got back that they could not comment to me on that before a press release. Take that for what you will.
Other Stuff:
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- RIG - RBC upped target from $66 to $75, rating Outperform
EXXI taking another bit of preferred off the table.
October 15th, 2010 at 7:47 amchk
October 15th, 2010 at 7:51 amhttp://www.pennenergy.com/index/petroleum/display/6421909998/articles/oil-gas-financial-journal/unconventional/chesapeake-energy.html
EXXI — having to pay up to retire those perpet preferreds… ugh. Keep the lesson in mind, Mr. Schiller…. your bankers sold you a Bill of Goods with that issuance… THEY got the GOODS and YOU got the BILL. Stupidest piece of paper I've seen issued in a looooong time.
October 15th, 2010 at 7:57 amEXXI wouldn't do this, unless some large Balance Sheet action was in the works. JMHO. But we shall see….
(Stupid for the company… GREAT for investors. Way to go, Eli!)
October 15th, 2010 at 7:59 amThanks for the ssn update. Excellent!!
October 15th, 2010 at 8:00 amBDI up 9 out of 10 days driven by improvement on capes
October 15th, 2010 at 8:07 amBased on oct spot and current ffas BALT avg q4 rate is 22.5 which would yield a divy of .31 cents if no new shares issued and 21 c if new shares are issued.
I think they hold at .16 for q3
meant to post this link, note cape strength
October 15th, 2010 at 8:07 amhttp://www.tradewinds.no/drycargo/article568783.ece
EGY up in premarket… will be fun to see what they are up to… can't keep a lid on news forever.
October 15th, 2010 at 8:17 amThanks guys, am around but handling a back office snafu this am.
October 15th, 2010 at 8:27 amThanks for the SSN update. How come the street has not recognized the value in this company? I have a bunch of it, but is this time to add?
October 15th, 2010 at 8:36 amZ: CSFB upgraded PTEN. TP 17 to 23. Mostly a PP call. They are a little behind the curve.
October 15th, 2010 at 8:37 amBill- I continue to appreciate your shipping updates and insight. I'm in DSX, NM, and FRO. Those rich dividends from ages past make up a good part of my basis so I'm not hurting as much as I might be, but I'm still debating my past decision to reinvest dividends instead of taking the cash.
October 15th, 2010 at 8:50 amMy strategy, if one could call it that, is to gradually transition from growth opportunities to income as opportunity knocks. In that vein I have been building positions in business development companies TICC, ARCC, and a new position in RSO. Since it's Friday I add "show me the money"!
I think dsx increases its divy at some point. I like NM as well.
October 15th, 2010 at 8:52 amThanks for the tips
Cargo – I think the reason is the rally it has had and the fact that they are Australian and basically trading at a buck. We're in a lull between news items so some investors, having just scored a double are hitting the exits. I'm being a lot more patient than I originally set out to be (this was a Bakken story in the beginning) since the situation has evolved. I'm considering adding at the moment but I own a good chunk now. My sense is that news from Northstockyard (Bakken play) will be helpful late this year, that news out of CHK and others in the Niobrara will also be constructive (assuming the results are what people think they will be. As we get into 1Q, when they are about to spud their own wells I suspect we will see the stock start to wake up. When looking around at other E&Ps, I don't find many trading with such as cash on the balance sheet % of trading value.
October 15th, 2010 at 8:56 amcargo> Tanker update
October 15th, 2010 at 9:02 amhttp://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=125573&Itemid=93
Consumer sentiment was below expectations.
October 15th, 2010 at 9:05 amSilly question from the you need to spoonfeed me crowd.
October 15th, 2010 at 9:13 amYesterday did we ever find consensus on Aubrey's new mystery shale and on whom the well landed smaller player might be?
Woodbine (according to Reef who would know) / GST
October 15th, 2010 at 9:14 am2 for the price of one..Oil and Shipping
Russian gas tanker dumps Suez Canal for alternative route
In what is considered to be a threat for one of Egypt's most important national income sources, Russian gas tanker Baltica has made it through Murmansk, Russia, heading to Shanghai, China through the Arctic Ocean; experimenting with the use of this course as a substitute for the southern route, which goes through the Suez Canal.
If Baltica makes it safely to its final destination, 5,000 nautical miles, US$1 million and 40 days will have been saved, a financially lucrative shortcut that could be used by all Russian oil tankers heading from Murmansk to East Asian markets, according to Russian experts.
The new route has been created thanks to global warming, which has caused Antarctic ice to melt.
October 15th, 2010 at 9:19 amFRO looks like dead money for some time to come. I own SFL who has an ownership interest in FRO and SFL has been bucking the downtrend. Do you know if they also own part of SDRL?
October 15th, 2010 at 9:26 amThey're slamming the door on longs today, pinning to the downside targets. Ugly.
October 15th, 2010 at 9:28 amI don't known about SFL but FRO and SDRL are linked at the hip through the chairman Fridricksen. He owns them both.
October 15th, 2010 at 9:28 amThanks also for the SSN update Z. I'm on my 3rd round trip here now on house money.
October 15th, 2010 at 9:32 amAll of the minute charts look the same today, crash and burn, then bounce with the S&P. Reference SPX, MMR, CHK. Silly options expiry market. Ripping the W from my keyboard until further notice.
October 15th, 2010 at 9:35 amPopeye – glad it's working for ya, hopefully they spend the money wisely. I know they are hunting in the Bakken for more land. They're also spending $2 mm on the Goshen 3D. That 3D will cover more acres than they own so I'd bet they fill in some holes in their position based upon the seismic interpretation around year end.
October 15th, 2010 at 9:38 amEOG up $1 to $100 …. pinning put holders. Everything else looks like kill the caller action. BEXP especially.
October 15th, 2010 at 9:49 amIt is tough for mrkts to go up, with banks under attack. You may hate banks… you may hate bankers… you may loath Wall Street… but our economy can't live without them (it's like hating your Utility Company but still needing to heat your house). So… until Mr. Market is assured that we are not facing another Bank Meltdown (which we aren't)…. he will continue to wear his Grumpy Face.
October 15th, 2010 at 9:58 amTED Spread not indicating that anything is wrong in the banking market. He is clocking in at a steady +14.9bps. Tells me, this too shall pass. Perhaps BAC is a "buy" here….
zman, the Marcellus shale seems to be the forgotten stepchild, are there any current value plays there? or is everything currently all about being oily?
October 15th, 2010 at 10:02 amHear ya BOP, good day for a bike ride, run, swim etc.
Mimster – like BOP, I am no big fan of the Marcellus. I don't know about value plays there as most things have high valuations. Perenially good stock performers include RRC, UPL. CHK has the biggest slug of acreage there and SWN has a position which, along with GST, is my exposure to the play. Nothing wrong aside from ugly topography and hard to deal with states in some cases, gas actually gets a premium to nymex but it is gas and I like a more balanced play. If you like names that may be fully valued but don't miss earnings and production projections take a look at that RRC. 30 straight up production quarters.
October 15th, 2010 at 10:13 amthanks zman, I am just turning over rocks to see what squiggles out.
October 15th, 2010 at 10:16 amGST – thanks Z & West
October 15th, 2010 at 10:19 amon #28 & #29, MHR has a big slice of MS that literaly has a zero cost basis acquired through the Triad BK last year.
MMR,………….Z & BOP……..there was an earlier discusion about antiipating a Friday run into earnings on Monday………..do you still consider that a possibiltiy late in this afternoon (after the CBOE option traders flush out the weak hands with their 'pinning action' …….specifically Oct. 19 Calls….or are the a 'BRIDGE TOO FAR' to reach in just the last couple hours of trading?
October 15th, 2010 at 10:20 amRe 29, atls starting to get a lot of marcellus love.
October 15th, 2010 at 10:21 amCrys – as long as the S&P doesn't simply tank I still do. Not pinning any extra dollars on it though as these days are highly unpredictable.
re 33. There's a big long list incl COG, PVA, many of the big caps.
October 15th, 2010 at 10:26 amI have ATLS already via ATN, I miss the divvy so much.:-(
October 15th, 2010 at 10:27 amcrys — i will be shocked if MMR doesn't have some positive operational updates from DJ#2 and BBE to talk about on Monday. The fly in the ointment is that MMR's current production is still declining… not new news, but it always seems to surprise some people when it hits. Those people are driving by looking in the rear view mirror, so they can wreak some havic with their Stupid Traffic Moves. I bought some MMR y'day at 18.40, so tells you what I think.
October 15th, 2010 at 10:28 am"havoc"…. really, I can spell (on most days…)
October 15th, 2010 at 10:29 amS&P greening up, group as well… odd but welcome. Watching for an exit on the lower strike BEXP calls.
October 15th, 2010 at 10:39 amBOP – whaddaya mean the economy can't work without banksters. Haven't you heard of barter? You lend me some cabbage seeds if I give you some shotgun shells up front. What's not to like? Actually, since Wall St likes complexity, they should be really into this. Arbitraging carrots and beans against hammers and plumbing fixtures should keep the quants busy for a while.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:04 amWell, at least barter does have the advantage of being rather hard to tax.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:06 amSSN = 141K traded = news ignored.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:06 amBaylor – please check your email
October 15th, 2010 at 11:22 amZ – do you still think EOG is pinned? Intraday chart looks kinda purposeful.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:27 amWest – do you see any production data for the Pederson 10-3H well?
Dman – probably, but if the S&P wakes up it will be one to rally on the strong get stronger theory.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:29 am#39…. yeah. And we used to live without electricity, central air conditioning, stovetops, and Utility Companies, too. Go figure.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:30 amMMR getting ready to wake up it seems, trying for green.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:32 amSSN, GST, BSIC, CXPO…….. patiently buy the dips and wait for the inevitable news………must say SSN has consistently 'DONE WHAT THEY SAID THEY WOULD DO………..AND BY AND LARGE WHEN THEY SAID THEY WOULD DO IT……………very shrewd lease acquisition and JV work.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:37 amA JV with HAL on the remaining Niobrara acreage would be like 'FROSTING ON THE CAKE' as it assures SSN 1ST PRIORITY in completion scheduling instead of having to wait in the back of the bus.
If the early CHK /SSN Niobrara well come in (as Z pointed out 2 are already speudded an we willl know b4 year end the we are off to the races.
Have not heard any more about the drilling unit SSN was to form? did this go by the wayside in the CHK/SSN JV????????? ………..would think not as there are still 17,000 acres of Niobrara inventory left to prove up.
bop-some of us still do live without that stuff. In fact billions of people.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:42 amCrys – have not heard anything by way of confirmation. Have some more ?s in with them, will let ya know if I hear anything along those lines.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:45 amBOP – just hang on there while I figure how many carrots equals a central aircon system. A Utility company? I don't have enough vegetables for that.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:46 amcargo — wow. And i thought i was deprived by not having a SMART PHONE. 😉
October 15th, 2010 at 11:48 amZ – I guess it just bothers me .. I didn't see anyone give EOG permission to rally. Don't they have to apply for a permit?
October 15th, 2010 at 11:48 ambut… at least for the most parts of the U-S-of-A…
October 15th, 2010 at 11:51 am"How you going to keep them down on the farm
After they've seen Paree" ??
Genie's long out of that bottle.
Maybe I should go buy a GPS… can't believe i still use MAPS. ha!
Getting my wish on EXXI… sorry about that. Didn't want my trading shares called away at $25. On the other hand, day's still young!
October 15th, 2010 at 11:52 amGPS is so 2005ish. Iphone it.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:53 am#55 — ZING!!
October 15th, 2010 at 11:53 amgood one.
Guess i'll go grab my flint, wood chips, strike up a fire and have lunch now…
October 15th, 2010 at 11:55 amI'll fess up- I have electricity and running water. But don't make me get a tv.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:58 amIphone so 2009iah…….Ipad it.
October 15th, 2010 at 12:00 pmp.s love my Ipad
Z – 3Q still a few weeks away for EOG. Do you see any other catalyst? I'm wondering if there is a move to get in ahead of 3Q.
October 15th, 2010 at 12:03 pmOil and Natural Gas: Jobs and U.S. Energy Policy
American Petroleum Institute (API) President Jack Gerard will give a Clinton School lecture about his industry’s role in the American economy, particularly its ability to create jobs. The oil and natural gas industry is responsible for 9.2 million American jobs, according to API, the national trade association representing the oil and natural gas industry.
When: Friday, October 22, 2010
12:00 p.m. – 1:00 p.m. – Lunch & Lecture
*Bring your own lunch. Drinks provided.
I will attend
October 15th, 2010 at 12:05 pmDman – I don't and I rather doubt it would run up into those earnings given the last couple of quarters and the fear associated with them. That being said they probably run up and then sell off. Hard to say, I'm not playing other than as a small common share owner in the ZLT. I'm going to wait out the quarter before adding or not to the ZLT. I don't see myself punting the first set of shares I took a few weeks back anytime soon though.
October 15th, 2010 at 12:07 pmcrsyball – it's on the Zman stocking stuffer list. I hear the Nasdaq app is excellent, wondering how the cnbc app is. The iphone cnbc app is much better than cnbc is on tv.
October 15th, 2010 at 12:09 pmZ,
October 15th, 2010 at 1:02 pmThe Ipad will run anything the Iphone will run (if there is not a specific Ipad App released) and you can download them from the Apple App store just like downloading for the Iphonne.
In IT talk……….there is one way compaability which allows Ipad software to run on the Ipad………and in most application the Ipad autiomatically compensates to fill up the larger screen of the Ipad.
Z: EOG is up because you called it undervalued yesterday. 🙂
October 15th, 2010 at 1:03 pmre 64. I like things that just work like the iphone/ipad. You see a lot of tech out there that does not.
Tom = LOL
October 15th, 2010 at 1:07 pmtap, tap, tap, this thing on?
October 15th, 2010 at 1:42 pmWorking
October 15th, 2010 at 1:44 pmI am busy trying to figure out why my short MOS long POT traded is not working.
October 15th, 2010 at 1:46 pmYeah, it's just that kind of day, I'm doing a little reading, not much to add, waiting for an exit on some BEXP calls but that's about it.
October 15th, 2010 at 1:47 pmZ – your SSN NAV of $2.25 looks intriguing. Why kind of discount to NAV should a little, foreign based outfit like this be priced at?
October 15th, 2010 at 2:11 pmIn other words, how much share price value is the market missing?
Rob – tough to say, maybe 20 to 30% off is fair until we some more data on the Niobrara. Note that in a sale they could get more than 5K per acre for the Bakken. I'd normally give it a higher discount to NAV but given that a big chunk of that is cash I think 25% or so is fair. Once we get data, assuming it is good, the NAV should climb based on $/BOE in the ground and not $/acre. That should forced some more people to take notice.
October 15th, 2010 at 2:16 pmre 72, thanks.
October 15th, 2010 at 2:23 pmBOP – do you think this big sell-off in the banks is related to that report a day or 2 ago that CDO's were sold with undisclosed bad assets in them, and that the banks might therefore be on the hook to buy them back at par? BAC being a main suspect. Banks dropping while mortgage insurers (who would be off the hook) soaring seems to indicate this might actually be driving things in the space today and yesterday.
Z: RIG fleet status report released. Had down time but less than street expected. Stronger than market because of that.
October 15th, 2010 at 2:33 pmZ: RIG charging XOM $704,000/day for a rig in the Black Sea. Now that's almost as much as the Yankees pay AROD. 😉
October 15th, 2010 at 2:37 pmThanks Tom – saw the report was out, had not looked over.
October 15th, 2010 at 2:38 pmOut on those 10 BEXP $20s at $0.40.
Beerthirty. ZZZZzzzzz.
October 15th, 2010 at 2:47 pmRobBanks (nice handle!) #63 — yes.
October 15th, 2010 at 3:39 pm(Sorry about the delay… Got tired of watching paint dry and decided to take the afternoon off. Mountain biking trails this time of year are just too beautiful to pass up…)