11
Oct
Monday Morning And All Is Eagle Ford Focused
Market Sentiment Watch: It's Columbus Day so while the equity markets are open today the Bond market isn't The Feds are also closed so no economic data today and oil inventories will be a day late this week. In energy land this week we have two more big buys in the Eagle Ford shale land grab totaling over $3 B (see Stuff section, the 157th OPEC meeting on Thursday, and one more energy conference, IPAA October 12th to 14th, to provide some last minute highlights prior to the kickoff of earnings season next week.
The Week Ahead:
- Monday 10/11: No ecodata scheduled
- Tuesday 10/12: NFIB small business index (last read was 88.8)
- Wednesday 10/13: Import price index, federal budget, CHK analyst meeting
- Thursday 10/14: EIA Natural Storage Report, EIA Oil Inventory Report at 11 am EST, jobless claims (F = 443,000), trade balance (F = - $44.3B), Producer Price Index (F = 0.2%, Core F = 0.2%), OPEC meeting.
- Friday 10/15: 2009 Tax Final U.S. Deadline, CPI (F = 0.2%, Core F = 0.1%), retail sales (F = 0.6%, ex autos F = 0.4%), Empire state index (F = 5.5, last reading was 4.1), Consumer sentiment (F = 69.4, last read 68.2), Inventories (F = 0.3%)
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Stuff We Care About Today – Eagle Ford thoughts, VQ
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):
- $5,200
- 100% Cash
ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
- $11,900
- 3 Positions at present:
- (10) January MMR $22.50 calls,
- (10) October BEXP $20 calls
- (67) October BEXP $22.50 calls (these are a House Money trade as we sold a third of then for triple the price of the buying and are now riding the bump in BEXP)
- 61% Cash
Commodity Watch:
Crude oil ended last week up 1% at $82.66. Note that at current prices, oil is essentially flat for 2010. The 12 month crude strip was trading at $85.46 at the end of last week, up 7% for the last two week. This morning crude is trading flat.
Natural gas fell 4% last week to close at $3.65. UNG fell 10% over the last two weeks, which is an odd, outsized move compared to the thing which it is supposed to track but I double checked the loss. UNG is now off 42% for the year vs a 34% drop for natural gas. The 12 month strip is now trading at $4.28. This morning gas is trading off 4 cents.
- Weather Watch: Unseasonable warm
- Last Week: HDDs of 53, just about normal with some cold areas offsetting warmer ones
- This Week's Forecast: Hot. 33 HDDs vs 63 normal and 101 last year.
- Tropics Watch: Something brewing near Honduras but it has become less organized in the last 24 hours.
Stuff We Care About Today
Eagle Ford Shale Land Grab Continues
Item #1 TLM and STO in a $1.325 B deal forming a joint venture to exploit 97,000 net acres in the "liquids rich" window of the Eagle Ford Shale. The press release points out this is equates to $10,900 per acre as if that's a good thing.
Item #2. The Chinese National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) announced a $2.16 B deal to buy into CHK's acreage position in the Eagle Ford Shale.
- CHK gets $1.08 B in cash and
- CHK gets a three-quarter carry on future drilling up to $1.08 B
- Nutshell: Another great monetization for Aubrey.
Last week saw PXP buy into 60,000 acres for about $9,600 per acre so I guess at least those guys can feel a little less out on a limb now. Who else feels pretty happy with these prices? Try all of the EFS participants.
Nutshell: Level of interest is at an apparent crescendo. This makes me a bit nervous. Luckily or not, I have exposure to the two lowest names on the list of underperformers above, the minnow CXPO with an important upcoming EFS test and HK, with it's dominant position in the play. I also hold a smallish positions in EOG and ROSE. Today I'm likely to be hunting in the ZIM with November options on HK and some other names, potentially including CHK.
IPAA Calendar
Other Stuff
- Bakken Player Update - Should be out tomorrow but I've had a little scope creep so bear with me.
- ATPG - commences production at 2nd well at Telemark Hub. IP is "in excess of 7,000 BOEpd" vs guidance of 7 to 10,000 BOEpd.
- VQ Announces Spot Secondary
- Raises $75 mm at Friday's close
- Guides on growth:
- 2010 to be 18,600 BOEpd (down 3% from prior guidance, the result of being more back end loaded in their drilling program and in my way of thinking, a completely forgivable offense)
- 2011 at 19,500 BOEpd - reducing focus on Sac Basin, increasing focus on the onshore Monterey Shale.
- Nutshell: I don''t own it but I do watch it and continue to be increasingly interested in the name.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- MHR upped to Buy at Jefferies
- MMR - Susquehanna takes target up $5 to $23
Aubrey on CNBC now
October 11th, 2010 at 7:16 amFront and Center Watch:
CHK and all the EFS players – got some acreage there, it just got repriced over the last week or so. Good to see Aubrey selling at the high acreage prices and not driving them higher himself. HK likely on my list of option trade candidates but the group listed in the post may all see a continued bump.
BEXP – still holding October options with expiration this week, will be front and center all week long.
MMR – swapped to the January calls at the end of last week, will not take that long to take profits but wanted to be exposed in a longer dated contract through earnings next week and through another EXXI presentation this week at IPAA.
October 11th, 2010 at 7:27 amhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/229360-potential-marriage-of-ge-and-atp-oil-gas?source=yahoo
October 11th, 2010 at 7:28 amThink 3 will twist the shorts?
October 11th, 2010 at 7:29 amMore Front and Center:
VQ – see post for comments, early trading on nothing volume is off 13% … depending on how that unfolds into the trading session I may be looking at a long position.
October 11th, 2010 at 7:31 amMore Front and Center Watch:
MHR probably runs as well on the combo of Jefco upgrade and all the EFS news. $5 looms.
October 11th, 2010 at 7:33 amCongrats BOP, ATPG jumping on the completion.
October 11th, 2010 at 7:42 am… and the Skimo link
October 11th, 2010 at 7:42 amEditor off
Chrome by the way seems to be a good bit faster than firefox. Also, had a web page crash it this weekend and chrome only disabled the affected tab, not all of the tabs. Nice.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:09 amHappy Thanksgiving Canada.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:15 am#7 thanks. Actually, all the energy kids look to enjoy a nice open. EXXI over $26… HK trying to get back over $18… could be another nice day.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:17 amYeah, helps to have China playing big boy ball in your yard.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:18 amZ,
Did my own math on the Talisman purchase and it comes out to just over $13,600/acre. That has to be the highest I’ve seen for that large of an acreage purchase.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:23 amrobry has + 94
and production up 10 bcf yoy per day!
October 11th, 2010 at 8:29 am09/17/10….64.09….64.14….65.14….65.23….64.70….65.17….64.59….453.07
October 11th, 2010 at 8:29 am09/24/10….64.89….64.80….65.98….65.46….65.28….65.79….66.20….458.40
10/01/10….65.27….65.29….65.55….65.52….65.77….65.69….65.71….458.79
10/08/10….65.19….65.53….66.90….65.06….66.72….65.58……………..394.98i
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
10/02/09….52.15….52.25….52.98….52.71….53.44….53.89….54.45….371.86
10/09/09….53.49….53.77….54.01….54.41….55.24….53.99….54.49….379.39
10/16/09….54.90….55.11….56.39….56.14….56.54….56.96….56.91….392.96
10/23/09….57.24….57.50….57.66….54.32….53.77….52.97….54.59….388.06
Z: Since EFS has distinct Crude, NGL & dry gas sections. Has it been broken down as to who has more property in the crude section? I know EOG is very proud of where they are and HK has never been given much credit for what they have. I thought their holdings were more in the NGL & Dry areas.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:30 amTex – yeah, high, I went ahead and took them at their word for the $/figure as TLM is a very trustworthy bunch and the STO involvement should complicate the math. But yes, very high price. Not Haynesville pricing yet but still getting up there fast.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:30 amTom – HK is pretty speak out, couple of bubbles more in the oil window, but the early stuff was pretty dry gasesque. I’ve seen a couple of maps with the windows well delineated in presentations.
Bakkens
October 11th, 2010 at 8:34 amNOG – just keeps on rolling.
BEXP taking out last week’s highs but trading is thin so far.
I’ll have the new piece out tomorrow.
Bidding a little CHK call position on this trade off the open.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:38 amZTRADE – ZIM – CHK
CHK – Added (30) October $24 CHK Calls for $0.33 with the stock at 23.75, backing off after sealing what looks like a good deal in the Eagleford over the weekend with the Chinese National Offshore Oil Co.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:40 amGO BEXP GO
October 11th, 2010 at 8:41 amSM – big leverage to the EFS, running hard today. MHR running harder.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:50 amLINE inching into another new high.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:50 amGreat Britain on the tape saying there is no need for a deepwater drill ban off the coast of the UK. Saying drilling is vital to the economy and national security. Meanwhile the US and EU continue to be proud of their effort to not drill in the deep.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:53 amDuane Grubert strikes again! (Love that guy… he is the Best at understanding the geologic implications of the various energy plays).
——————————-
Susquehanna Financial raises their MMR tgt to $23 from $18 saying the co’s recent transaction to buy PXP’s share of its shallow water ultradeep program combined with likely encouraging news near term from ongoing SWUD drilling supports a materially higher MMR share price. They also continue to see Energy XXI (EXXI) as an excellent alternative exposure to MMR upsides.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:54 amEOG back over $100.
WLL keeps punching new highs.
Thanks BOP, he needs to tell his sales force to wake up this morning.
October 11th, 2010 at 9:03 amZ: I guess my earlier question is more, should we pay attention to who is where in EFS? Is that a worthwhile exercise? Profit margins are clearly different.
October 11th, 2010 at 9:08 amMore analysts, inching up toward Duane’s $35 PT. (Duane never waivered, during the whole Macondo debacle. He is a long-term value guy and I hope they give him a huge Christmas Bonus. He is GOOD.)
=====================================
CapitalOne Southcoast upgraded MMR to Add from Neutral and raised their tgt to $23 from $19. The firm also raised their tgt on Energy XXI (EXXI) to $33 from $29 after removing the additional risking that was factored in to their ultradeep valuations. Firm says since Macondo, they have been risking future GOM exploration by 20% but now feel this additional risking is not warranted as they already factor in substantial development costs for the ultradeep projects and the companies are getting drilling permits (as evidenced by the Lafitte permit just secured in the past few weeks). They continue to view EXXI as the best way for investors to play the ultradeep but also like the upside potential in MMR despite the 36% gain over the past month.
October 11th, 2010 at 9:10 amSD is down on the news that the ceo sold 6 m shares
October 11th, 2010 at 9:11 amTom – yes, we should. Not sure the market is at this point as everyone claims liquids rich acreage to one extent or another. The little guys may not know as they have yet to test their land. I kind of have it in my head who’s oil and who’s not and where I’m not sure. CHK and PXD are oily, APC doesn’t seem to be which would carry with it SFY but it’s early, HK is a mix but they will focus on liquids areas for now, SM – not sure of the mix.
October 11th, 2010 at 9:13 amATPG — still holding onto those trading share… don’t think it has fully penetrated the Brain Pan of the Shorts that NOW is the time to cover. Oh well….
October 11th, 2010 at 9:14 amre 29. Ya know, it is not the way you get me on board with a story either.
Thanks Bop.
October 11th, 2010 at 9:14 am“shares”… h! own more than 1 share…
October 11th, 2010 at 9:14 amBOP – In the case of shorts, I find a slow burn is better. A big sudden jump and they might feel compelled to reload. But this way they roast at low heat until the meat simply falls off their bones. Or getting out of the metaphor, incremental news items drive the stock slowly higher, eroding the short side story.
October 11th, 2010 at 9:18 amWith oil flowing, atpg is more compelling..
October 11th, 2010 at 9:29 amz and bill — thanks. Was thinking along those lines myself. I think a slow grind up is the way we go here… having flowing barrels changes the story completely. No wonder they told GE to go pound sand. They are trying to hold onto all the upside themselves, in a Gordon Gekko-kind of way. heh heh heh
October 11th, 2010 at 9:33 amThing is on a stock like ATPG, the shares shouldn’t really move up on the “news” as this is a development well. It’s not exploratory. It was never going to “not flow”. Yes there is some question of the rate but they knew the basic range but the exploratory aspect was gone. The reason it is running is the bonfire of shorts there and the coming end of the moratorium and the fact that they are getting things monetized and doing, in general what they said. But in a vacuum, this is not really news. Based on the other data, it should go higher.
October 11th, 2010 at 9:35 amVQ down 15%, watching.
October 11th, 2010 at 9:57 amDSX breaking out of 6 months trading range.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:07 amThanks Cargo, rates had a pretty good run last week.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:08 amVQ…major P&F trendline support at $15.50, this also correponds nicely with the 200 day SMA, new charts posted, aggressice long trys at $16, nasty opening gap, this is probably going to be first resistance on the way up…if using stops, they should be below $15.50
October 11th, 2010 at 10:10 amThanks much, as always, JB.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:12 amZMAN – Do you sense that enthusiasm is leaving the energy space?
October 11th, 2010 at 10:15 amatpg, is it news? Atpg tends to over promise and undeliver so I view it as a major positive.
There is an execution risk built into the stock and cash flow risk, so with telemark flowing, helps on those two fronts.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:15 amRam – maybe for the short term but it has more to do with the holiday.
Bill – of course, they were late.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:17 am43 interesting question,
People were tripping over themselves buying calls in exxi and mmr late friday. today , they all disappeared.
With oil over 80 , im comfortable holding the oily names
October 11th, 2010 at 10:18 am39 dsx – those nov 13 dsx calls doubled from last week.
Today the bdi paused. You can see what can happen with a longer recovery in shipping rates.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:20 amEXXI…if it gets there, the retrace to the 50 period SMA on EXXI’s 30 min chart has been a good place to buy since late september…
October 11th, 2010 at 10:25 amEXXI — what would make me very happy there… would be to see the stock close at $24.95 on Friday. That way, my trading shares don’t get called away. I’m patient… don’t need massive gains everyday, every week… š
October 11th, 2010 at 10:30 amJB — EXXI 50 day SMA is around 20.20, right?
October 11th, 2010 at 10:32 amBOP – my sense is the MMR/EXXI duo are just giving back some of the late Friday gains since nothing happened in the Gulf over the weekend in terms of deals. EXXI speaks again tomorrow so we have the same set up as at JREC except another week has gone by, more time to have logged, drilled deeper, etc.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:33 amLooking around at volumes, in most cases things are not trading, they’re just marking time until tomorrow.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:34 amJB — voted… and checked out your 50-day level of 24.68 (if i recall correctly). I was not looking at a 30-min chart, with the 20.20 level.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:34 amz — wonder if MMR puts out a drilling/logging update, ahead of EXXI’s presentation manana….
October 11th, 2010 at 10:36 amre: 47…I called attn. to both DSX and EGLE charts last week…and as Bill might say…I jumped on the wrong horse…oh well; can’t ride ’em all….
October 11th, 2010 at 10:37 amBOP – they might, was thinking either last week (but it wasn’t ready) or this week (don’t know if ready but tomorrow would be opportune). But also considering that MMR is an early reporter, Oct 18th, so they may not want to steal their own thunder in front of that. Which is why I swapped to longer dated calls there last week as I didn’t want to miss exposure due to expiration.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:39 amre 55. Can’t kiss all the girls or you will get slapped trying.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:39 amBill – point taken on ATPG on the under promise thing. And I’m being a bit petty on the timing as they said mid September at one point and this not far off by any means for an offshore project.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:47 amWLL hit $105, so no, still not thinking people are losing interest in the group. Glad I own the common, left some money on the table in those options sold that week but that’s a problem to have. The Eagle Ford may be the hot, sexy topic of the moment but the Bakken, as BOP has said often, is the gift that keeps on giving, and is a lot more of “a sure thing” than the EFS.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:49 amz — #59 kinda cute to see my words quoted back… but i truly believe that. Just got off the phone with a HF mngr who was asking the same thing about the Bakken. After two years of going back and forth with him, he has finally jumped on board the Bakken Train. He recognized the “risk vs reward vs other plays” in the Bakken and has added a couple of names over the last week. If he’s thinking this way, others will follow.
Bakken is like Christmas… only it goes on for 364 more days a year.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:54 amTell him that in many areas you’ll be looking at 3 Bakkens and 3 TFS wells on a two section (1,280 acre) unit. All long laterals, with a 24+ frac stage count. Then tell him that the EURS on the Bakkens will migrate north of 750,000 BOE and the TFS are looking like they may get over 500,000 BOE. Then say that acreage can be had for roughly half of what the EFS is going for and add that we have no idea what spacing will look like in the EFS but that it will have to be a dream case to get to where the Bakken already is. Not saying the EFS isn’t good but is it 2x as good as the Bakken on economics? Not enough data to get me there yet.
October 11th, 2010 at 10:59 amz — thanks z. I’m looking forward to your BakkenBeauty LineUp. Still fond of my little KOG. That’s the horse I continue to ride in the Bakken Belmont Stakes… but, just my personal preference.
October 11th, 2010 at 11:02 amMHR just walking higher.
October 11th, 2010 at 11:04 amvq monetized ng haedges, will help q3 results
On September 30 and October 8, 2010, the company entered into transactions to modify certain of its existing hedging contracts. The first set of transactions lowered the ceiling on the company’s 2011 oil collars on 5,000 barrels per day from $140 per barrel to $100 per barrel. In the second set of transactions, the company settled natural gas puts on 12,000 MMBtu per day at $7.50 per MMBtu and settled a $5.75 by $7.12 natural gas collar on 12,000 MMBtu per day. After completing these transactions the company entered into natural gas swaps at $4.44 per MMBtu on 24,000 MMBtu per day. The company will receive total proceeds of approximately $24 million as a result of these transactions.
October 11th, 2010 at 11:19 ambdi futures quiet today
Tone: Deadly quiet post index with levels unchanged.
Capes Index $40702: Oct 36750 -250 +250/day Q4 35000 -250 +250/day Cal11 26500 -250 unch/day
October 11th, 2010 at 11:22 amPanamax Index $19413: Oct 21000 unch -250/day Q4 24000 unch +250/day Cal11 21500 unch +250/day
Smax Index $19848: Oct 20500 unch +500/day Q4 21750 unch +500/day Cal11 19000 unch +250/day
TSI 147.90 up 2.70 Oct 148.00 +3.00 Q4 149.00 +6.00 Cal11 140.00 +3.00
HK starting to rally as well now off the CHK news.
October 11th, 2010 at 11:24 amcet top 10, at a 18.5 % discount
they also own mmr
http://finance.yahoo.com/p?k=pf_4
October 11th, 2010 at 11:32 amWow, someone threw a book at Obama’s head. That’s not right. Of course, lots of things aren’t right but I don’t endorse throwing shoes, books or anything else at president’s. There was also a naked man led away from the same rally but I assume that’s normal.
Thanks bill, wow-boring day.
MMR trying to come out of the hole, can EXXI be far behind. I’m sorry BOP but for the good of everyone I think you should take one for the team on those calls.
October 11th, 2010 at 11:33 amRe 68, was that a metaphor?
October 11th, 2010 at 11:39 amre 69, no, no true story.
October 11th, 2010 at 11:47 amCHK…the intraday question… is CHK going to hold support here, or is it going to test the gap at $23.18?
October 11th, 2010 at 11:48 am#68 — ha!! Actually, anything less that $26 for EXXI on Friday and I’m ahead (once call premiums are included).
October 11th, 2010 at 11:48 amZTRADE – ZIM – CHK
CHK – Added another (30) CHK October $24 calls for $0.25 with the stock at $23.55.
October 11th, 2010 at 11:48 amre 72, yeah, it’s been a good one for ya and me as well and I’m just selfish enough to see them steal your trading shares away and be ok with it, lol š
October 11th, 2010 at 11:50 amre 71, am guessing that has a lot to do with what the S&P does into the close. I am thinking the stock isn’t done moving up into the analyst meeting on Wednesday.
October 11th, 2010 at 11:51 amEXXI recovering from a little light volume profit taking. Group just feels apathetic today with the market but with a bent towards going higher, in my opinion.
Crude off 25 cents, big deal after the run it’s had too, OPEC later this week probably does little, maybe it slips a bit after that.
October 11th, 2010 at 12:12 pmWRES is looking very good of late. Is there good reason for the move? inyo?
October 11th, 2010 at 12:30 pmCargo – still nothing but I’m really not watching them since I sold. They should be speaking at IPAA and they are oily so I’d assume they went up with everything else that’s oily, just like the other CA oils especially.
October 11th, 2010 at 12:33 pmThis story just rallied the Bakken names:
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFSGE6950L920101011
October 11th, 2010 at 12:34 pmCHK finding some support at the 200 day SMA retest…
October 11th, 2010 at 12:35 pmThanks JB, any thoughts on BEXP here? I’m milking two positions in near term calls. I’m not planning on punting the common any time soon. But technically was wondering where it gets overbought as we are now in record territory.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:00 pmany word from Nicky today ? S&P tagged 1178 …
October 11th, 2010 at 1:10 pmPack – I have an email in with her.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:12 pmRE: #81, BEXP, wants to go higher, but given the gains already and since we only have a few days left on the Oct calls, one possibility would be to cover on a break of the 20 period SMA on the 30 min, this also lines up fairly well with the multiday trendline, if it goes higher, great, otherwise, a break here would cause some to cover…30 min chart updated…
October 11th, 2010 at 1:20 pmJB – thanks, where is the 20 period sma at?
October 11th, 2010 at 1:21 pmRE: #85, on Oct options, thinking, to $21.25
October 11th, 2010 at 1:25 pmThanks all for the votes it is much appreciated…
October 11th, 2010 at 1:30 pmThanks JB, will go vote in a bit, working a half dozen things at the moment so have not gotten to see the chart just yet.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:31 pmJB — ATPG seems to have poked its head up into No Man’s Land. Any idea where it could head to next? (Assuming, and up-and-to-the-right direction.)
October 11th, 2010 at 1:32 pm#88, don’t seem to need to worry about it at the very moment, pressing the highs as we speak…
October 11th, 2010 at 1:33 pmThat press is on pretty low volume though, on the minute chart, the drops are coming on bigger volume but then it rebuilds price as the market makers offer less and step out of the way. Glad to see the Reuters story in 79 having a little sway here as we’ve only seen the one deal of late (HES for AEZ) but you have to think more are on the way.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:36 pmGood afternoon. What a slow and boring day.
I have actually slightly changed my views from Friday where I thought today would mark some sort of high. Yes we could see weakness tomorrow – support comes in at 1151. But I expect the week to chug higher and we could be at 1185 by the end of the week. I think the correction waits until next week…..
October 11th, 2010 at 1:38 pmImmediate resistance is at the 1172 area.
RE: #89 BOP, posted this over the weekend…
ATPGā¦some very interesting technical symmetry present in the ATPG chartsā¦ with any macro mkt strength next week, the small consolidation ascending triangle on the daily suggets a test of at least the 200 day SMA just below $15 which is also at the 50 period Weekly SMA, so I’m thinking the $15 area is going to be a magnet on strengthā¦this might be helpful in looking at option strategiesā¦ longer term the weekly is suggesting a test of at least $22.50 which corresponds with the P&F Price objective at the same priceā¦.charts updated…
Since we’ve now broken $15, I’d like to see the 200 day hold support, say above $14.75
October 11th, 2010 at 1:39 pmThanks much. Turned on CNBC, all I heard was “QE this” and “QE that” so I switched it back taped soccer highlights. Much more useful.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:40 pmMMR also up in the rarefied air above $19. well over the levels seen earlier this year when everyone went crazy over the first Davy Jones well. Same goes for EXXI.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:42 pmJB #93 — thank you for reposting along with your updated comments. I voted. You are great. Thank you.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:43 pmZ: 91 Are we all complete on predicting the next E&P takeover? Last I remember we all listed names after the XOM – XTO merger. Was West the last contest winner? This is not to say you should have another contest. I think we would all like to see the action if it happens.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:53 pmTom – last acquisition was HES for AEZ, no one had them. I’ll write something up soon for another one as that is a good idea.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:55 pmLINE knocking on $33.
October 11th, 2010 at 1:57 pmAny ideas on why CRR is trading heavy the last week or so? Is the market looking ahead to a big drop off in gas shale drilling?
October 11th, 2010 at 2:04 pmAAA – nothing specific that I have seen. Last week pretty much every Bakken player said they are using ceramics, costs be damned. Might have something to do with it.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:17 pmlooks like we have a hurricane coming. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
October 11th, 2010 at 2:20 pmEld – yeah, looks like it will develop but then hook a hard right and be no threat:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010101112-invest88l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Hit the forward button to watch the model run that one over Cuba.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:26 pmBack to the book incident,
you recall the shoe throwing incident with Bush,,the press had a field day with it
Apparently, when it happens to Obama no one sees it and the press did whatever they could to hush it
“The Associated Press, the Philadelphia Inquirer and Washington Post made no mention of any such developments in their original reports. And the White House pool reporter saw no indication that they occurred either,”
October 11th, 2010 at 2:28 pmre 104 – color me not shocked.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:30 pmWhat was the title of the book?
October 11th, 2010 at 2:36 pmCould the CHK news move analysts to update their NAV of CHK? What news media covered the book throwing? Was it a beginners economics book?
October 11th, 2010 at 2:36 pmre 107 – they will certainly take a look at their NAV’s although I’d expect them to only ballpark a change until after the analyst meeting.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:38 pmCould the JV have Fed gov intervention because of the company being Chinese? Do you feel the sell off in CHK after the announcement is unwarranted regardless of the S&P marking lower?
October 11th, 2010 at 2:41 pmre 109:
re China: I don’t think so as they would not have a leg to stand on with this particular deal.
re CHK selloff unwarranted: yes.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:44 pmBeerthirty, tomorrow should be more interesting.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:52 pmfrom 10/7:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/get-in-on-the-new-oil-boom.aspx?OCID=eml_msnnl_6009.13.2.17&REFCD=emmsnnl_6009.13.2.17
October 11th, 2010 at 3:03 pmDid Janet Yellin actually utter the words “punch bowl” in a presentation today? A concept that the Fed does not even acknowledge to exist. Anyone?
October 11th, 2010 at 4:07 pmNFX would be an interesting add to the EFS players list, w/ 300k acres
October 11th, 2010 at 5:00 pmKramer touting CHK big time- says it could double and still be “cheap” Thinks value
October 11th, 2010 at 5:42 pmis low 70’s
Nicky … thx (i meant 1168 not 1178)
Bill 104 … I noticed that too ! weasels.
October 11th, 2010 at 5:48 pmBG – right, embarrassing omission. I’d blame an intern but they give me such blank stares when I do that. Will amend in the future.
Snuhart – thanks, explains the post close $24+ print.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:25 pmCLR on the tape late saying 30% production growth for 2011. 2010 to be in line with prior guidance. The Bakken piece will be out tomorrow.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:30 pmSSN on the tape with an ops update, pretty routine, details in tomorrow’s post.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:11 pmBedTime Market Strategist
October 11th, 2010 at 8:41 pmPre-Earnings Lull-aby.
Today's session in the Equity market was slow enough to put market watchers to sleep. It was officially the slowest session in 2010. The bond market was closed for the Columbus Day holiday. This may simply be a sign of the level of investor apathy towards Equities. The S&P 500 traded in a 35 basis point range until a 3 pm sell-off, which may simply have been investors checking to make sure their machines were not frozen. Considering 5 of the 10 major sectors closed within 10 basis points of Friday's close and the biggest change was the 32 basis point gain for Telecom, flat would seem to be an understatement. The Vix gapped lower, then drifted lower to its lowest close since late April. Another likely key contributor to the slow trading activity is earnings season, which is about to pick up. Equity investors are hesitant to pay-up in a rally in advance of important news. Through the balance of the week, there are 18 companies in the S&P 500 expected to report earnings. The combined market capitalization is $749 Billion, representing approximately 7% of the S&P 500. This first look at earnings season has a good blend of the economy: Tech (Google, Intel), Transport (CSX), Financial (JPM) and Industrial (GE).
The National Association for Business Economists (NABE) cut its estimates for 2011 GDP growth from 3.2% to 2.6%. NABE described the updated forecast noting that "Next year's 2.6 percent gain shows the lack of a typical cyclical rebound and only matches the long-term growth trend previously expected by the NABE panel." The group does not expect a double-dip, but expects consumers to remain constrained. NABE anticipates "this year's holiday sales to be especially weak and only rise 2.5%." Interestingly, the National Retail Federation noted last week they expect 2010 holiday sales to rise 2.3%, but noted that would be the largest rise since 2006 (+3.1%). That follows 0.4% growth last year, 3.9% contraction in 2008 and 1.8% growth in 2007. If the NRF's forecast is correct, it would equal $447 Billion in holiday sales, making it the second highest total on record after 2007's $452.8 Billion. Last week, ICSC announced that they expect their holiday sales to rise 3%-3.5%, also the best growth since a 4.4% gain in 2006. It is all a matter of perspective.
TS Paula Formed south of Cozumel. Tracks are mostly non Gulfward.
October 11th, 2010 at 9:48 pm