Friday – Welcome To October

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Market Sentiment Watch: Good morning and welcome to the fourth quarter of 2010. Overnight, Chinese data spurred the risk trade sending commodity and equity futures higher. This extends oil's rally to $5 in 3 days as the dollar weakens yet again on the coming Fed QE program. In today's post I've included a snapshot of the current ZLT and the performance of the ZLT taxable and non taxed accounts through the nine months and since inception.  3Q was kind. Looking ahead we have a couple of energy focused conferences next week (the Johnson Rice conference and the DUG Eagle Ford shale conference) both of which should provide a final opportunity for E&Ps to get burning news onto press releases prior to the 3Q announcement season, and then we start closing in on earnings with the sellside apt to make last minute mark to market adjustments to their E&P estimates ... look for some slight negative revisions to price targets for natural gas names. We may also see some Bakken producers' estimates trickle lower on the Enbridge snafu but the market is well aware of the impacts there and any estimate cuts by the sellside are simply housekeeping at this juncture.

Ecodata Watch:

  • Consumer spending came in at 0.4% vs 0.4% forecast
  • We get ISm (F = 54%) and consumer sentiment (F = 67.2) at 10 am EST.

In today's post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff  We Care About Today – SSN
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,200
  • 100% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $4,400
  • 38% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:

    • WLL – Weak again yesterday post the Lewis & Clark news, added (2) more of the October $95 calls for $2.60 with the stock at $94.60.
    • MMR – Added back (10) of the October $17 calls for $0.88 (same ones sold Wednesday for $1.25 although a few less in number) with the stock at $16.88, backing off with the group.

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

And the now monthly ZLT Performance Update

Commodity Watch

Crude oil rallied $2.11 to close at $79.97 on a weak dollar. Here's to hoping crude stays in the $75 to $85 range in the near term as anything higher would be unwarranted and asking for a pullback that will be, as usual, harder and faster on the equities than the ride up. This morning crude is trading up $1+.

  • Ecuador Watch: An attempt to overythrow Rafael Corea's government failed. Awwww.
  • MEND Watch: The rebel group is back and warning they have planted multiple bombs in the vicinity of celebrations planned for the country's 50th anniversary. 

Natural gas closed fell $0.09 to close at $3.87 after EIA reported a bigger than expected injection to storage. This is the shoulder season and these things happen and we remain range bound (more details below). This morning gas is trading off five cents.

  • Tropics Watch: Still busy with two more areas of potential development but nothing pressing close to the Gulf at the moment, hence the dip in natural gas futures this morning.

Natural Gas Review

ZComment: Bigger than expected number. After a number of weeks of mostly missing to the downside on my gas estimates I have to conclude that gas production is slightly stronger than I expected. I emphasize slightly because there are some wild estimates of this past summer's growth out there and the storage situation still points to something more along the lines of 2 Bcfgpd YoY growth. At present, with 5 to 6 weeks left in the injection season I still put peak storage at about 3.7 Tcf. 

Stuff  We Care About Today

SSN Year End Results - released yesterday

  • Ah, minimalism. 2 page annual results ... short and sweet.
  • They were profitable though barely
  • Oil production was up 25% to 30,719 barrels (84 bopd)
  • Goshen transaction #3 now set for "early October" with proceeds of $4 mm, same as before.
  • Current cash is $74 mm ($0.89 / share), this is about $2 mm less than I expected but they are looking at land deals and this could just be the price of the 3D survey they are shooting over their remaining 17,000 Goshen county acres in preparation for Niobrara tests early next year.
  • Net cash should amount to $63 mm of $0.76 if I have the debt total right still at $11.1 mm which is likely (no balance sheet in the filing I have seen so far). 
  • Nutshell: Nothing out of the ordinary.  My sense is the stock is resting. I know that last week, when the stock was halted pending news, many investors were hoping CHK had decided to take them out. Not me. Not for that per acre price. The upside potential here is higher than the $2 or so CHK would have had to pay. Near term catalysts will include wells drilled by offset operators including EOG, NBL, SM, and CHK who will be writing check (3.8% ORRI) for every barrel they sell out of those 23,000 acres they bought from SSN in the future.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • NE - cut to Hold at Dalhman
  • CRZO - coverage resumed at Neutral at JPM

Interesting Reading Watch

122 Responses to “Friday – Welcome To October”

  1. 1
    skimo Says:

    New BP CEO indicates divvie will come back sooner than others may have anticipated.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Editor off

    Front & Center Watch

    MMR and WLL calls

    WHX as I’m marking my own numbers to market there today and will have a new estimate for the 3Q distribution out later.

    BSIC – have a small position, may add more on this pull back from the pop earlier this week.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Thanks Ski. BP stock certainly is making a comeback.

    Was just reading an article about the new BOEMER regs on the Gulf. Nov 30 would be hard to make at this point as there is a 60 day public comment period on them before they become final. So assuming there is some integration of comments at the end, it’s hard to file a permit before November’s over.

  4. 4
    skimo Says:

    They certainly sound business friendly! Looks like Dems are going to lose Gulf states this fall.

  5. 5
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Credit Markets seeing a pretty nice rally this morning. Opened strong… and just got a little stronger. TED at +13.0 bps signalling no major fears in the global banking industry. And continuing strong demand for bonds means equity-friendly moves can be financed cheaply.

    Only dark cloud is sitting directly over Wash DC. Mr. Salazar and Mr. Bromwich will go down in the annals of US Energy History as two of the worst “regulators” of all time. On the other hand, people get to see — up close and personal — what happens when you put a non-technical person with an agenda in charge. Happily, this too, shall pass.

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Found this on the ATPG Yahoo board. Sums up nicely the reality of “dealing” with this new BOEMR that i’ve been hearing. It’s all being decided and controlled from Washington.


  7. 7
    skimo Says:

    BOP, “pass”, do you mean like a kidney stone that is stuck? Where’s the ultra-sound to get it out now? 🙂

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    re 4.

    Was talking to a money managing friend earlier in the week who is long CLNE. His point of view is that the president could announce the biggest jobs creation bill in history if he were to promote natural gas as the American fuel for cars and trucks. Basically the T Boone argument. 1) jobs are still stagnant and 2) you have the chance for the first time to really move towards getting off foreign oil due to the growth of the shales. Instead, more people are unemployed due to a moratorium and the Administration is pushing electric cars. It’s a head scratcher. I’d rather not try to figure out the reasoning there but I would point to recent press on electric cars questioning the infrastructure to fuel them. The electricity in those cars will still come from 50% coal, 20% gas, 20% nukes, and 10% water, wind, solar, oil, geo, and biomass. The wind and solar components are not growing fast enough to make much of a dent any time soon. And they are not employing a big slug of identifiable jobs or the president would be quoting the 10,000s of thousands of jobs they had created. But if you go to the Williston, you’ll see work aplenty and not enough housing. That could be done in Texas, LA, OK, PA, WV, NY too but no, the Administration would rather push a GM’s Volt, a $41,000 car with 40 mile range on electricity that can go further if you use the gasoline engine. Hmmm. Head scratcher indeed. Not sorry for the rant.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    WLL finally taking not of the fact that the press release earlier this week was a game changer and probably that oil is over $80.

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    skimo — Salazar has gone so far off the Rez that I am just trying to take a deep breath… and live thru it. If you only saw one side — the gov’ts response to Macondo — then you would have thought that drilling platforms blew up at a rate of one per month. There is just NO BASIS IN FACT to support the heavy boot on the neck… unless you have a political agenda….

    “inner peace… inner peace… inner peace…” This too shall pass.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    BEXP continuing to look constructive, speaks at JR energy conf. on Tuesday.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Bill – PXP walking through its 200 day today.

  13. 13
    ram Says:

    EOG looks like it might run to 100 this time.

  14. 14
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EOG looking better too. Guess being “onshore” is a positive today.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    re 13/14. Great minds…

  16. 16
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Someday I want to test this “Model Portfolio.” Just buy all stocks that run to $90. If they make it to $90, they will make it to $100. “A ninety dollar stock is a one hundred dollar stock”… so the old saying goes.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Market stuck waiting on:

    ISM (F = 54%) and
    Consumer sentiment (F = 67.2)

    at 10 am EST.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Off topic but irritating.

    Fanny and Freddie dumping houses on the market for $100K discounts.


    Not exactly what I expected after all the arguments about the first time home buyer tax credit that supposedly helped all of us who already had homes by keeping a bunch of homes from being unsold.

  19. 19
    RMD Says:

    TAT back above $3 connotes quiet strength after exploration miss and secondary, I hope.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    ISM at 54.4, CNBC calls it a miss, market watch calls it a small beat.

    Construction spending was a bit better than expected.

    Sentiment came in at 68.2.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    RMD – me think so too.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Market certainly didn’t like those numbers.

    RMD – TAT is going to have to show some progress with those Thrace basin fracs that are underway or I will pull my position. Given their debt load and the near term nature of some of it, it looks to me like they will have to have another equity raise in 1H11.

  23. 23
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #18 — UGH!! The reason this “recovery” has taken so long is the same reason we got The Great Depression… govt interference and uncertainty and bad policy. In “trying to do good,” they only muck up the works of an economy trying to get better holistically. Washington means well, but they are bass-ackward, when it comes to doing the correct/smart thing (which usually means “doing nothing”). Takes some understanding of markets and economonics (and not the Keynesian kind, long disproved everywhere else in the world)…. these are classes that the Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosis, Harry Reids, and Henry Waxmans never even thought of taking.

    Rant over.

  24. 24
    RMD Says:

    22 sadly that realitty smacks of the HK and CHK disease, before they got “religion”.

  25. 25
    skimo Says:

    BOP, with almost 19 million shares still short ATPG still looks good to me. Does anybody have a price target on capturing the profit on the trade?
    And thanks, by the way for identifying this little jewel.

  26. 26
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TAT — the underwriters were very careful not to oversize the deal (relative to the demand). It was actually cut back and placed in the hands of non-flipper accounts. I have to give kudos to the underwriters, the way the TAT 2ndary was handled. It could have been messy… but it was handled with aplomb.

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    skimo — thanks. Let’s hope it continues to work out. I don’t intend to stay in this position much longer… looking for news on Telemark #3. Next week, me-hopes.

    JB — what would be a good “technical” place to exit the ATPG swing trade?

  28. 28
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Just the way ATPG has been trading, lately, it needs to bust through $14 and hold. Then I think we could see a point or two, as the shorts realize it’s time to cover.

  29. 29
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OT (it’s Friday) — RMD… your SIRI pick is looking good. They just upped their subscriber guidance.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    OT response. Does that model make money? I drove 2 hours the other day on the highway, streaming free Pandora the entire way on my iphone.

  31. 31
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OT — Not everyone has iphones… shocker!

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OT2 — Think it’s about “content.” Not a fan of Howard Stern… but apparently, other people are.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    OT – all the cool kids do. or blackberries or some other phone that can do it.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Ah, content is important.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    REXX in full breakout.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    RE REXX – I thought there update was more a precursor of an update to more important stuff that will be on the 3Q call, like their first Niobrara tests.

  37. 37
    ram Says:

    What’s Pandora?

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    … good call with the REXX trade west. I’m thinking I will be long PETD prior to their call.

  39. 39
    zman Says:


  40. 40
    choices Says:

    Hello EOG!

    #8-the ONLY explanation I can come up with is “follow the money”-who benefits with this obsession with electric cars-GE Imholt??

    unless the admin is so completely out of touch that they do not know the true NG advantages-but even that I find hard to believe-it has to be the money, ie grease for the politicos.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Johnson Rice Energy Conference: Oct 5-7, list of presenting companies:


    IPAA OGIS San Francisco: Oct 12-14, list of presenting companies:


  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Market apparently noticing that it’s October.

  43. 43
    zman Says:


    MMR – Added (10) more MMR $17 October Calls for $1.02 with the stock just over $17.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Market looks pretty absentee ballotish today.

  45. 45
    elduque Says:

    What is the latest on hurricanes? Please and Thank you.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    10% chance of a cloud pile just south and west of Cuba turning into something over the weekend, not sure where it is heading, models not clear. 40% change of clouds east of Hispaniola turning tropical.

    POTUS on having a love-in with Rahm exiting, not sure if he is announcing new chief of staff yet.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Oh, it’s Pete Rouse


  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Well I’m up on my EOG common position now. Fickle market.

  49. 49
    bill Says:

    6 unbelievable! , thats why these guys need to be thrown out

  50. 50
    bill Says:

    Im still holding on to PXP

    They have put hedges so they get all the upside in oil prices

    The indicated price on 51 mmr shares was 14.57 and with mmr at 17.44 we have another 150 m on top of the announced 818 m deal

    I think they get 1.0 b on the outer shelf stuff and i hope they get rid of it before everyone wakes up to the fact that Obamma hates oil companies.

    Now with oil over 80, they will switch from the banks to the oil industry to bash and shake down

  51. 51
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Sadly, I have to take back my recent comments on SSN sellers. “Sell the news” seems to have worked. Not worried, per se. But disappointed that the stock has drifted back to the low 30s. Comes with living in Single Digit Midget Land, however. If you can’t stand the Ankle Biters, get out of the pen.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    BOP – I don’t look at it that short term.

  53. 53
    crysball Says:

    Outsmarted again!
    hearing Chinese are pouring lobbying money into Senate electionns which they think they can influence, in anticipation of Delays in Senate vote on House Bill on Yuan.
    Can we send POTUS and gang of Buffoons. To China and let them screw up their economy (like they have ours)….and bring the Chinese here to run our economy?…..and call it an even trade??

  54. 54
    VTZ Says:

    The more that the US pressures China, the less inclined they will be to move. It’s partially a cultural thing.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    OAS continuing to run into Johnson Rice presentation next week. They should have added a fifth Bakken focused rig in the last few days along with another frac crew, to support their high, high growth rate this year and next (>100%). They should have some wells to report at JR but in the past they’ve been pretty quiet about individual wells outside of their quarterly conference call. The past only goes not even two quarters here as a public company so that may change as they hit these conferences for the first time.

  56. 56
    VTZ Says:

    Also keep in mind that they moved by 20% between 2005 and 2008 with minimal to no pressure and they only really stopped because of the financial crisis. It’s also in their best interest to slowly revalue upwards (contrary to popular belief in Washington).

    No country has ever gotten rich by debasing their currency although the US is going to try!

  57. 57
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #52 — i don’t look at it that way either… just pointing out that I recognize (and can live with) the volatility. And that stocks don’t always DO what you think they will DO in the short run. Big-Duh, i know.

    TAT… making the underwriters look good. They did a great job of shutting the door in the Flippers faces.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    NOG breaking out. Bakkens in general having a good day as BEXP has come back to life after a rest, WLL is back towards the highs and I’d bet will make a run on 100+ this fall, KOG is certainly off its lows as is the aforementioned OAS moving to new all time highs.

    re 57, hear ya.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    NOG – actually, was scrolling back and find that it too it at its all time highs now, which is more impressive as a non-operated interest that’s actually been around for quite awhile.

  60. 60
    zman Says:


    Adding more shares at $1.12. Still small overall.

  61. 61
    skimo Says:

    Anyone have an insight into EnCana Corp. (ECA)? Wondering if it is ready to run?

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Yield names strong today. WHX through $21, I like what I have which is plenty for me and will not chase as the analysts here like to scream and yell and beat this one down every time the market take it up. Whatever… I’ll take the 12 to 13% yield and be happy.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    Ski – They should have some more good wells to talk about in E. Texas on the 3Q call, maybe a bit of color on Eagle Ford and they should have a big Horn River well to talk about.

    I wrote this about on the 2Q call and I was wrong on how the Street would take the guidance upgrade. Been waiting in the wings since.


  64. 64
    zman Says:

    SEC blames algorithm for flash crash:


  65. 65
    zman Says:

    and Skimo, my sense at the time was that they were bagging the Street on out quarter production guidance, and I still think there’s a good chance for a small production based beat for 3Q.

  66. 66
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Does this weekend feel different holding short term stuff – becaause it’s the first weekend in October?

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Ram – a bit. Shouldn’t but it does at least to me. Market has had a good run in the third quarter.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    $195 for 50 in a 35? Sheesh, I’m in the wrong racket.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    More on the flash crash


  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Arkansas quakes:


    People are already blaming Fayetteville Shale drilling for these.

  71. 71
    Dman Says:

    The thing that is strikingly weird about the administration’s ignoring NG is that NG provides the obvious bridge to an eventual roll out of wind/solar etc. You need energy to build out that infrastructure before it can be self sustaining. NG provides the quickest path to that future.

    As for motive, I don’t know, but there’s plenty of outright incompetence in this admin, starting at the top. I mean, consider that surely a politician’s main competency is, well, politics. Obama has essentially lost the support of his base, who are saying things like this:

    ” Obama’s extraordinary claim he has the power to order the assassination of any American, anytime, and anywhere puts him on a par with King George III, Ivan the Terrible, and other tyrants throughout history that held the power of life and death over their subjects.

    Obama has set himself above the Constitution, as an American Barrack The Terrible, with the power to detain us indefinitely, torture us, and assassinate us at his will. Obama is not like Bush, he is far worse: he is a tyrant and a threat to the American people.”


    … which sounds like it was written by Chuck Norris.

    In other words, Obama has managed to create an unprecedented left-right alliance against him, which will soon manifest in election results. And he’s done that mainly by shredding what was left of the Constitution, notwithstanding that the O-man is supposed to be a constitutional scholar. Now *that* is incompetence. So I guess we can’t really expect much on topics he knows nothing about,like energy.

  72. 72
    zman Says:


    Exactly on the first paragraph

    Hadn’t heard that first quote but I’d doubt the its veracity. But I did watch Jon Steward run through a bunch of democratic ads that basically said “I stood up TO the president, not WITH the president”

  73. 73
    Dman Says:

    Z – where do you see NOG from a valuation viewpoint?

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    SSN 6K for the year end results hit the tape, will go through. If you have never read it you will find a company that has more going on that just the Bakken and the Niobrara.

  75. 75
    choices Says:

    CIGX on the list @+200%


  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Dman – on the little names that are growing fast, I cut them some slack on multiples. On $/ acre they are OK, will go grab that number on the new price. These guys are growing 30 to 35% sequential quarter after quarter probably through at least end 2011 and I’m not sure that’s completely in the stock just yet.

  77. 77
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Did you retrieve the 6K from their website?

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Ram – Off my trading system, do you need a link?

  79. 79
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #27 ATPG…holding 30 min intrday support right now, short term swing, $14.20, longer term…topside channel line resistance at $16, intraday chart updated….

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Here’s the link for SSN:

  81. 81
    Jerome Blank Says:

    HK…new P&F buy signal with $16.50 print

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Thanks much JB

  83. 83
    choices Says:

    Thanks, JB-saw that on the HK chart-trying to break up out of short term resistance


  84. 84
    choices Says:

    BTW, Z, amazing performance on ZLT.

  85. 85
    ram Says:

    Thanks. My trading system dates back to the Henry Kaufman Fed days.

  86. 86
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #83 choices, thank you, it’s good to be off 0 votes…

  87. 87
    cargocult Says:

    I know that anger at POTUS and Congress is as American as apple pie and is ecumenical as well. But it is my feeling that our current economic problems stem from long range economic shifts that transcend individual presidencies.

    In short, the US has ceased being a manufacturing nation, having shifted production to low wage countries like China. (ironically the down and dirty workers here are immigrants because Americans won’t do those hard low paying jobs) We add value through intellectual processes like design and marketing which are not labor intensive. Too many of us are consumers without being producers and are living way beyond our means. Add that the accumulation of great wealth in the hands of a few is almost without precedent. (the super rich are now literally buying elections) Yet Americans expect to have an ever improving lifestyle as a right. No politician, right or left, will get elected telling people this.

    In my view, the problem does not begin with government, it begins with ourselves. What constituency in the US is not in the line for government funds? Agriculture, check. Energy, check. Autos, check. Elderly, check. Rich, check. Poor, check. Guns, check. Housing,health care,education check. Pogo said ” we have met the enemy, and they are us”. Insurgent political groups only want to cut the funding of someone else. Not themselves. We spend more nationally on our pets than some countries spend on their people, and still we claim not to have the money. (ok, we like our pets better than our neighbors)

    If we want to live like Americans then we have to pay for it. If we want to live like Italians, we will have to pay even more.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    Thanks Choices and I have not been too tradey.

    JB – we can’t have that:
    going to vote now

  89. 89
    choices Says:

    Interesting list for w/e read-several energy stks on list: COG,RRC,SWN, MEE


  90. 90
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #88, Zman, thank you much…

  91. 91
    1520sbroad Says:

    JB – voted. Damn fine work.

  92. 92
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — thank YOU for keeping us up on ATPG…. gonna go vote now.

  93. 93
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #91, #92, 1520, BOP, thank you for the votes, it is much appreciated…I’ve never been this close to the top, the other authors must be thinking…who is this guy?

  94. 94
    skimo Says:

    JB voted 🙂

  95. 95
    andy Says:

    jb -voted also -dont need separate thks
    question u just said HK gave new buy signal. am reluctant to buy more cause i have such big posit, but like to trade hot stocks overnight that i don’t mind keeping if mkt opens lower. how have these buy signals worked out for u lately?

  96. 96
    milepost_43 Says:

    JB voted….great info….would appreciate adding TGA to your list….thanks…

  97. 97
    crysball Says:

    Anklebiter & SDM. Lucas Energy (LEI) is up 19 % and tapping on $2 today….apparently on Eagleford well permit by JV partner (Hill Energy). LEI has a 15% carry.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    NFX on a tear. What a difference a month has made there.

  99. 99
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #94, skimo, thank you….

    BSIC charts posted…trading right in the middle of a bullish consolidation triangle, on a P&F buy signal….

  100. 100
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #95, andy, depending on conditions, many times I like to wait for pullbacks off the initial P&F buy signal, the buy signal essentially means start looking for the right place to buy the dips

    RE: #96, milepost, you bet…

  101. 101
    Popeye Says:

    Voted, again.

  102. 102
    andy Says:

    jb thks so on avg how much of a dip wud it take to erase the p&f buy signal?
    just sold some puts on HK. the call volume is 10-1 over the put vol.

  103. 103
    Popeye Says:

    Z, KOG just hit my target how does the upside look? I have a small position but I’m up 40%.

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    Popeye – as you might guess I’d say, I’m holding mine, thinking that it walks higher into year end and that bigger than life exit rate (not the public 2,500 BOEpd) but the 3,000+ one. Next substantial pullback I plan to establish a fall trading shares position to take advantage of that while keeping my core position intact.

  105. 105
    cargocult Says:

    Think this is a good place to add to OAS?

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    Cargo – I’m not. I sold it down slightly about 10 days ago in the ZLT. Depends on what you’re looking for in a move, long, short term, I think it could do well in conferences next week, maybe 20+, maaayyybeeee 21.

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    WLL close to taking out the high ($98) from the day of the Lewis and Clark TFS announcement when all of that profit taking ensued. WLL is still cheap on a forward basis, cheaper than CLR by far and cheaper than the rest of the Bakken notables like BEXP.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    …. But I am thinking of the common when I say cheap. The WLL calls are volatile and I may take the $95s off at a moments notice.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    MMR holding JBs 17.50 range, very tight trading there. Think it is short term spent JB?

  110. 110
    ratberto Says:

    voted.THANK YOU JB!

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    Credit Suisse saying the trouble with PXP is looming reinvestment risk for the proceeds from a deepwater sale is what is holding the shares back. They see the sale happening in late Oct to mid Nov for $1.2 B. They think the company will do a combo of debt redux and acquisition of EFS or Bakken acres.

    Here’s where I have trouble with management on this if this is in fact the plan. They came late to the Haynesville and paid up for it. Now, when prices are high in the two aforementioned plays, they are ready to buy. I think the stock goes higher from here for a bit but I have to question the chasing of plays and buying in at elevated prices. Just about anyone can say “oh that’s hot, let’s buy some”, what did they do, see one of my “Got Bakken?” shirts?

  112. 112
    zman Says:


    MMR – Sold the (20) October $17 calls for $1.21, up 25% to my average cost. Just coming out of these for the weekend. Will revisit next week when EXXI speaks about projects that both companies are in at the Johnson Rice Energy Conference.

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    Story on E&Ps getting busy in the Niobrara


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    bill Says:

    bargain of the day

    pxp down

    flores just recd 5.0 m in free stock

  115. 115
    zman Says:


  116. 116
    Dman Says:

    Nice move in SD.

    Z – is GMXR worth a look?

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    jy Says:

    Re #87- Thanks Cargo. Sometimes we start believing our own points of view and forget that things are far more complex than a simple story can explain.

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    Dman – I saw the chart moving the other day, I was not very impressed with them at $12 and at $8. I dunno. A bit torn, it probably has some long term value but it is very gassy and operations update not that long ago was ok. I’ll keep HK over them long term. For a trade? Maybe but I’m not doing it.

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    NOG and OAS going oout at their all time highs. BEXP probably not far behind and WLL essentially there.

    Beerthirty, have a great one.

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    elduque Says:

    Thanks Z for all your work. Also, to the rest of the contributors.

  121. 121
    PackMan Says:

    Busy week; gonna catch up w/ you guys and gals now.

    Pandora … internet radio; I like it and use it.

    Grooveshark is good too.

    Z – nice ZLT performance !! impressive.

    I shed a bunch of EOG today; hope not to regret it come next week. Looking for a market pullback; any day now, any day. And crude also.

  122. 122
    ram Says:

    Thanks PackMan.

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