Wednesday – Oil Preview Plus Other Tidbits

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Market Sentiment Watch: The Fed says the door is open to further economic aid measures and market goes .... sideways. I thought summer trading ended with Labor Day but volumes still indicate tepid participation. In energyland, things have quieted down after last week's conferences and Monday's Gulf of Mexico deal news.  E&Ps are finding demand for cheap debt aplenty (see WLL offering 6.5% notes last night) as the end of the world premium has left the market place. As we approach month end we have a sea of potential E&P catalysts (see tab at left) and I moved some positions around in the ZLT yesterday (see below) in anticipation of one of these. The ZCAT may get off its duff as well, probably sometime next week. 

Ecodata Watch: None scheduled.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – SSN, GST, KOG
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,200
  • 100% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None.

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $2,300
  • 33% Cash
  • Positions are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • NONE

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • TAT – Added more shares for $3.02, see today's post for reasoning, but in short, they should have potentially catalytic news coming in the next few weeks.
  • OAS - Sold a small amount of OAS, up 10% to fund the purchase of  ...
  • TAT additional shares at $3.08 later in the day.
  • Thinking here is essentially along the lines of a shorter term trade in the shares especially should their large target exploratory well due at TD by month's end be successful.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell $1.22 to close at $74.97 yesterday on the November contract which takes over as the prompt month contract today. Trading yesterday was expiration influenced in the front month and weakness came despite a not so weak market and a slumping dollar.  After the close, the API released a mostly bearish looking  report (see below). This morning crude is trading up slightly.

  • Ghana Watch: Ghana signed $13 billion in loans with China to fund energy, food, and transportation development.

Natural gas recovered a dime to close the day at $3.92 yesterday. We remain range bound but heavily influenced by tropical activity. This morning gas is trading flat.

  • Tropics Watch: A cloud pile south of Hispaniola is looking a bit more organized and has a shot at getting into the Gulf by early next week.

Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: Street is at 79 BCF for tomorrow’s report.

  • Last Week: 103 Bcf Injection
  • Last Year: 66 Bcf Injection
  • 5 Year Average: 65 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Hi: 100 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Low: 53 Bcf Injection

Oil Inventory Preview

ZComment: Generally stocks of crude and both key products drift lower this time of year. Last year we saw big, across the board builds in stocks for this week of the year so on a year over year basis we should see relative improvements in the comparisons. Imports from Mexico are likely to have been down due to the passage of Karl but that may not show up in the numbers until next week's report.

API Watch: This would be bearish if I thought we were going to see it today in the EIA numbers. I don't think it is likely. 

  • Crude: UP 2.2 mm barrels
    • Cushing fell 219,000 - for the last 3 weeks, API and EIA have been in directional agreement about this. Falling stocks at Cushing is supportive for oil prices.
  • Gasoline: UP 2.4 mm barrels
  • Distillates: UP 2.5 mm barrels

Stuff We Care About Today

SSN Update

  • Niobrara Closing #2 - Trading Halted. SSN requested that trading be halted pending news on their Goshen County transaction, until Friday or on earlier announcement. This may or may not be bad news regarding the transaction. They did this in April when they did an equity raise. My thoughts are that it could range from a problem with the deal on the downside although this should be limited to the second closing amount of $12 mm or $0.14 per share to the announcement of a joint venture partner on their remaining acreage on the upside.
  • Niobrara operations: According to Wyoming Oil and Gas commission records, Samson spud their latest Niobrara test yesterday, the Intrepid US 22 State #1-16H well in Goshen County Wyoming.

    • The Niobrara is thought to be encountered at about 7,000 feet in this area of the play
    • SSN's permit calls for a proposed total depth of 12,862 so we are looking at a nearly 6,000 foot long lateral with this first effort. '
    • So far SSN has not confirmed the spudding of this well.
    • Previously, SSN had stated they would be using the 3rd and 4th quarters to shoot and interpret seismic before spudding the next two wells here in 1Q11.

GST Announces Marcellus Joint Venture

  • Korean firm Atinum will pay GST $30 mm in cash and $40 mm in drilling carries for an intial 21.4% interest in GST's 34,200 Marcellus acres. Upon completion of the carry, Antinum will own half of GST's acreage.
    • calls for the drilling of 12 horizontals in 2011.
    • and 24 horizontals each in 2012 and 2013.
  • Nutshell: Good for them. I just did a primer on GST on September 9th, please click here to see that post. At the time I said they should monetize the Marcellus, this may be a better alternative to that.

Other Stuff:

  • KOG files $250 mm mix securities shelf - may unsettle shareholders but it is most likely just being done to have one on file, as they just did an equities deal last month and should not need to go back to the market anytime soon.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • VQ - Wunderlich ups target by $2.50 to $27.50, maintains Buy.
  • DO - started at Global Hunter with Buy, $74 target
  • ATW - started at Global Hunter with Buy, $39 target
  • PDE - started at Global Hunter with Neutral, $29 target

136 Responses to “Wednesday – Oil Preview Plus Other Tidbits”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Front and Center Watch:

    GST – stock should run hard today on the JV and they have more catalysts down the near term road. If you need a primer on them see the September 9th post here:


  2. 2
    zman Says:

    I find this guy's 10 things you need to know before the bell site interesting:


  3. 3
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GST = nice.  Not what i wanted them to do (b/c leaves them as operator), but nice, nonetheless.  The $30mm cash + $40mm drilling costs = earns 50% of GST's Marcellus acreage.  So, that values their 34,200 net acres at $140mm, or almost $2,050/acre.  Based on last night's closing price of $3.67, $140m is a pretty nice chunk of GST's $185mm equity value. 
    MAJOR "Kudos" goes out to Reef… he has said that the value of GST's Marcellus acreage alone, justified the stock price… meaning you get GST's East Tx plays (Bossier, Glen Rose, Eagle Ford) for free.  I like it when stocks have multiple ways to go up.  With GST, we had the Marcellus AND the stacked East Tx plays.  Way to go, Reef!!!

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    File under… Bad Govt Policy Decisions…
    “The Real Gulf Disaster” – WSJ – while the well is plugged, the moratorium drags on…..the White House has been struggling to justify this ban.  WSJ  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703989304575504201916757646.html?mod=rss_opinion_main  

  5. 5
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    File under… "All I Want for Christmas is Some EXXI"
    Prediction = with DJ#2 and BBEast results to trickle in between now and December, I will go on record as predicting we will see $30/share for EXXI by the end of this year.  Caveat is that Schiller is shopping for assets (it's what he is good at).  So could see some stock reaction to what he brings home in the bag.  But given Schiller's history, I trust he will have snagged the merchandise at Bargain Basement Prices.

  6. 6
    john11 Says:

    I see a couple of pre-mkt SSN trades at $1.50 and a bid at 1.45.  Wonder what is going on.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    I see it too. Could be someone knows something. Could be someone thinks they know something. Size is small so I'd bet someone is just making a bet. The Halt applied to the States as well as Australia last time so not sure how those are slipping through. I would guess that the CEO got tired of an avalanche of emails and phone calls coming in when he didn't immediately announcing the 2nd closing and when that Intrepid well popped up on the Wyoming O&G site as spud.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Got to add the attaboy for Reef as well!

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    MMR flippers seem to have backed off, nice bid up this am.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Anyone know BB&T Capital Markets? Initiated on the coals this morning.

  11. 11
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all.

    Resistance at 1144 – 1145. Support at 1135 and then 1128 – 1132.

    I am anticipating a gentle pullback but it could end up being more of a sideways move, into around the 27th September before moving higher again. If we do see the pullback lower target levels may come in at 1120, then 1107.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Morning Nicky – thanks much for the update. Crude getting a bit of a post expiry new contract bounce. Yesterday’s move was more noisy than usual, probably due to the prior day’s big rally with equities. Dollar weakness getting overdone in my book, through 80 now:


    Not sure what people expected Ben to say other than “yes, these are dollars, I know it looks like the paper quality is off, a bit like a tissue, but really, these are dollars, here, see I can print more and more of them”.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    JB – can you take a look at WLT? Really breaking out today.

    WLL – the breakout continues, last night’s debt pricing didn’t hurt.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    SSN – for a halted stock SSN sure seems to be trading, 100K + done so far.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    VQ – well, I missed that California play, will wait for the coming pull back.

    GST – sort of muted response to what should be very strong news. Could be the recent run in the shares but looking at valuation on the acreage and thinking it is still cheap, cheap. Going to find room in a ZLT portfolio.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    EOG just short of JB’s PF buy I think, just under 91.

    Bill – do you think the bulks are dead money again for a time?

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    WLL through $98, wondering if it hits $100 and then the news comes and we see a retreat in the name. It is now discounting good results in the Louis and Clark play. My cost is $60 here and I may pare it back some on this spike.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    EXXI – Controller on the tape selling 1/3 of his holdings, a whopping 4,000 shares. He should own up on his company.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    SSN now halted, says news pending.

  20. 20
    john11 Says:

    SSN now halted

  21. 21
    john11 Says:

    150k shs GST at $3.84 was that you Z?

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    John – no, got tied up on the phone, mulling a sale and then a buy in a bit.

  23. 23
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — #18 sales by controllers never bother me. They rarely understand what the geoscience/engineering staff are up to.

  24. 24
    Bob Says:

    WLL bond trading when issued. $1M to buy at 100.75 vs $1M to sell at 102.25. Last trade 101.312. YTM 6.357%

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    BOP – agreed, plus sales by management who only have 12,000 shares in the first place don’t really matter either.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    KOG – shrugging off the Shelf registration (as it should) and bouncing 4%.

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bob — nice to have another Bond Geek on board. Thank you for the update!

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Thanks Jat for the email

  29. 29
    Bob Says:

    BOP – everything I know about bonds I got from you. Enjoying my non-callable CHK 9.75% purchased 3/09 at 94, now offered at 115! Thanks!

  30. 30
    bill Says:

    16 yes rates are currently weak, suggest profit taking.

    other concern is too many ships are being delivered into the market and financing isnt in place

    As an aside, drys, is diluting shareholders again to finance 2 drillships that economou the crooked ceo pawned off to drys

  31. 31
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bob — thanks for the reminder! I recall, you were ALL OVER those tasty CHK bonds when they were issued. Way to regcognize value, guy!

    115. wow. Nice.

  32. 32
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: Bot some WLL bonds @ 101.5 today.

  33. 33
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    “non-call bond with high coupon purchased below par”… it just doesn’t GET any better than that. >sigh<

  34. 34
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tomdavis — nice snag. Definitely time to buy individual bonds for your fixed income exposure… NOT bond funds!!!

  35. 35
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: I think last year you did a rant about why not bond funds. It was spot on. I forgot to make a copy of it. If you feel like explaining why again, I’m all ears. It was the best explaination I have heard and it was not long. I’ll make a copy this time if you feel like it.

  36. 36
    zman Says:


    SWN – Out half position, down 8% after just over 2 years. Didn’t kill the whole thing as this feels like a low but wanted to diversify a bit here in this taxable ZLT portfolio.

    GST – Added opening position at an average cost of $3.84.

  37. 37
    zman Says:


    Crude UP 1 mm barrels
    Gasoline UP 1.6 mm barrels
    Distillates Up 0.3 mm barrels

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Imports were up, will be down new week

    Cushing fell another 300,000 barrels, again in line with API for 4th week now.


    Gasoline fell off seasonally, to 8.847 mm bpd from 9.0 mm bpd last week

    Distillate fell as well to 3.689 mm bpd from 3.842. This is giving back a recent spike in demand. Would have liked to see that stay high longer.


  39. 39
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Inputs to refineries actually remained flat week to week as did utilization at about 15 mm bopd.

    Midwest refining ticked back up to 91.1% which is helping Cushing oil demand and keep those stocks falling.

    Crude is trading at 75.11, after this bearish looking report. I don’t think it is has a lot further to fall in the near term.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    … as we had big builds to inventories this week last year and we have fallen off already in recent days.

  41. 41
    bill Says:



  42. 42
    Nicky Says:

    If 1133 can hold we have a shot at another high at the 1150 area.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    re 41 – can’t see that at all.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    VQ = wow. Too bad they are in California, lol.

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tomdavis — rants tend to burst forth spontaneously… can’t force. So, can’t recall what I said. However (and this is key) I have worked on 3 institutional bond funds… 2 were buy-and-hold, for a single (corporate) investor. One was a very large mutual fund company. Those are apples-and-oranges… no, wait, they are apples-and-warthogs, when comparing the two different investment vehicles.

    Let me explain it this way… picture yourself as an investor in rental real estate. You buy houses based on what you think you can rent them for, in order to live off the cash flow. You are the only “investor” in your “fund” of rental homes. You have done your homework, bought right, and found renters who — for the most part — you believe will be in their house for 5 years and not default on their payments to you. A recession comes… or the stock market takes off… you continue to receive your monthly rental income from your portfolio of houses. You can live on this income… you know what it will be. You are happy.

    Now… imagine that you have a couple of friends who see how well you are doing with your rental portfolio. They want in too. You take their investments and go out and buy more houses (than you would, if it was only you). You find good renters and lock in 5 yrs of rental income. Alas… you forgot to lock in your friends’ investment in your rental house portfolio. A recession comes and your friends want their money back. You will have to sell some of the houses, in order to give them their money. If it’s a recession, then the value of the homes have fallen. If it was “just you,” you would continue to HOLD those homes, getting the rental income and living through the tough times. But, your friends want their money back NOW. You sell the homes for a loss and give them back their pro-rata share of their investment. You have locked in a loss for yourself. And are proably left with a “riskier portfolio” as you had to sell the “best stuff” to meet their redemption requests.

    But it’s not just a recession you have to worry about, now imagine the stock market starts to really take off. Your friends think they can make a LOT MORE in stocks, than they can in your measly rental income portfolio. So, they want their money back. You will have to sell some houses. But interest rates have gone up and potential buyers of your houses have to pay more to borrow money to finance their offers. So, the offers come in lower than what you bought the houses for, just a year ago. Once again, you have to sell for a loss. Even though you were perfectly happy with your rental income stream, your real estate portfolio’s NAV has fallen on a marked-to-market basis, due to your forced sales.

    If you buy your own bonds, you can always manage the timing of any sales. And you can always hold to maturity. If you are in a bond fund, your NAV gets marked-to-market and good bonds get sold when OTHER INVESTORS want out (or in). Who wants to leave the value of their investments to the whims and calls of the Great Unwashed (who are well-known to buy high and sell low when it comes to bonds)? You bought your bonds at your price, to lock in a known cash flow of interest income. If you want to sit through a recession (or stock market rally) it’s YOUR CHOICE. You remain in control.

    Mutual Fund Bond Funds never do what you think they will, over the entire business cycle. The time to own a fund is past. If you want income, buy individual bonds… that way, when other investors head for the door, your fund manager isn’t selling the good stuff, in order to fund their exit.

    Does this make sense?

  46. 46
    bill Says:



  47. 47
    bill Says:

    45 great post – yes makes good sense

    Thanks for sharing…

  48. 48
    elijahwc Says:

    #45 BOP if I may add, One should never own a bond fund as there is no maturity, and without a maturity there is no math.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Eli – but aren’t the managers sitting around matching duration to convexity, and then taking the square root of their dog’s butt, lol? Surely they get paid for something.

  50. 50
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elijah — great point. It’s like trying to swim laps in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. You just don’t have a good handle on where you are… and you get buffetted by waves you never saw coming.

  51. 51
    bill Says:

    bdi down 7 days in a row


  52. 52
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — #49 only if your matching an asset to a liability… there is no set liability in a bond fund (i know you know all this, but couldn’t resist). Hence, the analogy of trying to swim laps in the middle of the ocean. You have no demarkation to measure yourself against.

  53. 53
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:


  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Bill – so you are thinking bulkers are a bit dead $ here for a bit?

  55. 55
    elijahwc Says:

    #49 – yes in bond land they provide an end market to the investment bank. So, in theory the wrong people are paying them for ‘something”.

  56. 56
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: 45 Thanks for your post. Off to play some golf. Keep the energy sector green.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    BOP – But in class they taught us that if you match duration in a portfolio of bonds you … oh, right, real world. I guess that’s why Summers is headed back to the classroom.

  58. 58
    Nicky Says:

    Oil is so weak. It seems to have completed disclocated from the broader market the last two weeks. Hard to believe it won’t affect the indices.

  59. 59
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    eep, eep.

    (just like saying that)

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Nicky – my thinking is that they will affect it. OPEC meeting around the corner. They don’t like $75 anymore if press reports are correct, thinking is sort of OK but definitely not great and especially with the collapse in the valley of the dollar again. Like the economy, the problem is anemic demand (in the States) and too much supply. OPEC may decide that a cut to supplies will be OK now as they have been over producing quota to keep prices in check in the face of a globally weak economy. They have already signaled price increases for October. Next step would be to clamp down on cheating in a very verbal way. They have not done anything of note since Intern #2 was born in December 2008 (I recall because I was posting from the delivery room and got some grief over it) so it’s probably time for the group to show a little more discipline and buck up prices.

  61. 61
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (makes me feel like Roadrunner, i guess) 🙂

  62. 62
    Nicky Says:

    re #60 – so where do you think Opec want the price Z?

  63. 63
    bill Says:

    54 yes, sit and wait some more before buying. I sold some NM today.

    Things pick up around earnings but earnings wont be that great for spot players. Their weakness will drag down everyone

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    I think they want $80-90 in the new year. The dollars they are getting are less valuable and the coming dollars seem like to be even less valuable. That’s a problem for them.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Bill – thanks much. I came close to BALT but backed away on your comments regarding a coming important date there. If you have time would you remind refreshing my memory on what the overhang on the name is and when it will be done?

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    BOP – thanks for the bond lessons.

  67. 67
    bill Says:

    the graphs at the bottom of this post are as of 9/9/10 and havent been updated.

    Rates have fallen 20 % since then for the capes and panamax sector. Supramaxes have done better (relatively) so thats good for EGLE.

    Companies with long term charters signed like DSX and NM dont matter in the short run except ,in this rate enviroment, the stocks are dead money


  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Thanks again Bill. The play to me would be to find a play that pays a nice yield and park some money in it, getting paid to wait until we have a nice warm fuzzy world economy again.

  69. 69
    Nicky Says:

    There is a possible bullish falling wedge forming. 1127 area needs to hold….

  70. 70
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — and thanks for the energy company equity valuation lessons.

  71. 71
    ram Says:

    #64 is rather enlightening. Why do we buy “without fear” of being shut off from Venezuela? It seems other countries could fill the void if Venezuela said “no more oil for you”.

  72. 72
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #13 WLT, really has had quite a rally already, a bit hestitate to chase up now after an 8 day run up, thinking I’d rather wait for a pullback to support at $81-$81.50, the 30 min provides a good shorter term technical perspective…updated


  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky

    BOP – stop, you’ll embarrass me and I know better.

    Ram – it’s a lot of oil, US refiners on the Gulf Coast are tuned for it and for Mexico, and it is very close. If it has to come from afar it has to cost more.

  74. 74
    cargocult Says:

    BOP- thank you for another fine explanation. How liquid are individual bonds. I seem to remember way back when we owned a tax free muni we had a little trouble selling it. It was years ago in my mothers account and her broker put almost all her assets into one low paying bond. No taxes though, just no money. This little dog was not wagging his tail.

  75. 75
    ram Says:

    I guess that’s my point. It is a lot of oil. We depend on no interruption from someone who hates us.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB, I’m in there at about $69 and its coal and as such, not known as well by me as I like. It is a very mo-mo name and I really don’t like that (great on the upside, ouch on the downside). Anyway, thanks, was thinking to punt and regroup if this extension didn’t look technically like it had a lot further to go. On valuation it is not expensive but again, it looks very much to be a technical trader to me.

  77. 77
    bill Says:

    Balt currently has 22.5 shares outstanding but the overhang is 10.0 m share +

    The rates are lower in q3 than q2 but more available days ..

    the market is cool to new issues and if they floated today would have to offer a discount + underwriting commissions could be a 10 % haircut.

    They just had a minor ship grounding which means less billable days in q3

    So , id wait and buy on the dip with the share issuance if waits look better and stay away if they continue to drift.

    They only paid 1 dividend and i think they would like to keep it stable rather than having it bounce around. If im right the divy stays at 16 cents for the next few qtrs. If they let it bounce it could be .25 cents for q 3

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Ram – Don’t forget Iran in that crowd of people. Personally I think we have a number of issues with several of the Gulf producers. Thankfully #1 supplier Canada likes the U.S. Of course, some leaders in Congress have forgotten that and want to cut imports from them. Sheesh. Double sheesh. By the way, science channel has an apocalyptic view of a world without oil program running. I saw a number of mistakes and implausible situations in it, not the least of which was all production shutting down unexpectedly but their points were valid on what would happen to food and electricity prices and availability. China seems to get that. DC does not.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    EOG going lone wolf again today.

  80. 80
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    cargo — liquidity (like stocks) depends on the bond… not the flavor (stocks or MLPs or REITS). The larger the issue (all else equal), the more liquid the bond. Muni’s tend to be backed by small, regional projects (by definition). And it is a market driven by individual investors (and not institutionals, who don’t pay taxes). So, bit of an apples-and-oranges, to directly compare corporate bonds and muni bonds. That said, yes… they both fit under the umbrella of “fixed income.” But they are different animals, occupying very different cages at the zoo.

    Your broker should have been drawn and quartered. There are just about a billion fiduciary rules he broke, by putting your mother’s money into one bond. Especially a muni (which are usually much less liquid). That makes me physically ill. There are a lot of good, fine, smart brokers out there. He is not one of those. Sorry to hear about your experience. The taste of one bad apple can spoil one’s enthusiasm for the banquet of bonds in front of you, I totally understand that.

  81. 81
    choices Says:

    GFS-Canadian recent IPO (Aug 2010)-fracturing process w/LPG which is recovered-stk up from $5.20 to $6 last two days. Price Waterhouse auditors. I just bought some, unfortunately not at $5.20.

    May be of interest but low volume.



  82. 82
    choices Says:

    #79-heh-I will take lone wolf.

  83. 83
    Jerome Blank Says:

    GST added to charts…trading up against daily 100 day SMA resistance and P&F trendline resistance now, another stock that has had quite a recent run up, like to see GST hold the daily drawn trendline as support on any pullback, possibly forming a flag to make a run at a price near $4.30….

  84. 84
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #76 WLT, wow, really nice swing profit from $69…technically speaking the P&F chart is still suggesting a $107 price objective on the current buy signal, but I sure don’t think we get there all at once…

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Choices – me too and I’m just in the common and small at that (starter position) at the time being, just would rather not see it break down here. Silly of me but I’d rather average up, not down. Maybe they do cut numbers for 3Q, if so that’ll be the 2nd buy in day. Part of the big upgrade in the budget was for long term processing and takeaway capacity in the EFS. These guys have lots of big project experience. They don’t build infrastructure for lousy projects. The Street is very what are you going to do be for me in the next two weeks these days and is missing the value here.

  86. 86
    elijahwc Says:

    Luv now showing up for MMR

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    WLL = probably overdue profit taking, guess someone else was thinking of taking some off the table on or before the 3 wells are announced next week to 10 days.

  88. 88
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MMR — think JimBob showed his hand for his long-term plan there, with his recent financing. Not this year… probably not next year… but sometime over the next few years, MMR and FCX become one. FCX got a toe-hold, with this last financing. Think it becomes a formal marriage proposal someday. It will be JimBob’s Legacy. And it would be a Great one!

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    BOP – I agree. JB dodged the question about FCX’s future plans on the call when asked from his perspective as an FCX board member. He just said it was a good investment.

  90. 90
    Nicky Says:

    Has anyone mentioned the storm that may come into the Gulf next week?

  91. 91
    andy Says:

    bop – PAYD up 20% today. anything going on?

  92. 92
    elijahwc Says:

    This is passing on the tape:
    from briefing

    12:27 NFG National Fuel Gas spikes a point after announcing Marcellus Shale well results exploration of joint-venture opportunities (47.01 +1.15)

    Co announced the results of two new Marcellus Shale wells, as well as its plans to explore joint-venture opportunities in the Marcellus Shale. A Seneca-operated well on DCNR Tract 100 in Lycoming County, Pa., was tested at a 24-hour rate of 15.8 mln cubic feet per day on a 28/64-inch choke. Also, a Clearfield County, Pa., well operated by its joint-venture partner, EOG Resources (EOG), flowed at a 24-hour rate of 8.9 MMcfd. Seneca holds a 100% working interest in the Lycoming County well and a 50% working interest in the Clearfield County well. Additionally, Seneca has engaged Jefferies & Co, to explore joint-venture opportunities across a broad portion of its Marcellus Shale acreage.

  93. 93
    milepost_43 Says:

    Baker,Montana…Bakken pipeline hub

    It was representatives of pipeline companies who proclaimed Baker the hub of the Bakken. Tad True, Vice President of Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipeline, said “We believe Baker, Montana will become a hub for Bakken oil.” The company is building three collector pipelines bringing production from the north, west and east into Baker, to be downloaded on the main Butte Pipeline to be sent south. When completed the company’s transporting capacity will be increased from 120,000 barrels of oil a day to 300,000. Their goal, said True, is to move 300,000 barrels of oil a day into Baker, and 300,000 barrels a day out of Baker.

    Paul Miller, Vice President of TransCanada Pipelines, agreed with True’s assessment about the significance of Baker. His company’s Keystone XL project’s access point is near Baker, he said.


  94. 94
    zman Says:

    Nicky – last I saw 60% change of development, just off Hispaniola now.

    re 92.93, thanks for the updates.

  95. 95
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    andy — yes. They FINALLY had the meeting with the USPTO y’day (which was supposed to happen in July… but the USPTO kept delaying… go figure. A govt agency who can’t make it’s own deadlines… but i digress….). PAYD got everything they wanted from the Patent Review. So, it’s a march to close a business combination and patent monetization before the end of this year (as everybody’s taxes will go up next year… ).

  96. 96
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PAYD — one last thing (and i will shut up here). The “tell” to look for is the Bros exercising and holding their remaining warrants. So, watch for those Form 4s… that’s what I’m looking to see, as public confirmation that things are finally happening.

  97. 97
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Sounds like it’s official… Rahm for Mayor.

    Changing of the guards (and the sheets) at the White House, it seems.

  98. 98
    bill Says:

    Just updated my model on Balt

    For the 3rd qtr my model has

    available days 542

    avg rate 19,900

    dividend .14

    accident cost them 1 penny

    last qtr they paid .16 so i think they hold it at .16

    That’s all without new shares in the numbers/

    for q4:

    avg rate for q4 based on today futures for their mix of ships is 21,220

    Available days is 810

    q4 divy with all 9 ships in the water on 10/1 (doubtful) and 10 m new shares
    = .18 cents

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    re 97… wow. talking about jumping ship.

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    Barclays cutting targets on UPL, SWN, RRC again.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    They also took NFX down $5 to $60 and NBL down $3 to $83.

    Nice bill.

  102. 102
    bill Says:

    balt presented at jefferies recently


  103. 103
    ram Says:

    Is the patent for PAYD a game changer?

  104. 104
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — no.  Actually DOING something with it, is.

  105. 105
    ram Says:

    O.K., is PAYD doing something with the patent a game changer for PAYD?

  106. 106
    bill Says:

    does a registration statement become automatically effective after 30 days?

  107. 107
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — didn't mean my answer to be "cute."  For some companies, just getting a license or patent or approval of some sort is a "game changer."  Here, they need to follow through with what they say they will do and monetize the patent by licensing/selling out to a larger player.  If they do, it will be multiples of the current stock price.  If they don't, stock falls to 15¢.  It's one of those asymmetric payoff diagrams I love so much.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    $4 swing on WLL today.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Did you know we take soft dollars? We do.

  110. 110
    ram Says:

    O.K., what's a soft dollar?

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    They spend the same as a hard dollar but come from a different source. The institutional types here have them spend, we're set up to take them from Bloomberg. 

  112. 112
    ram Says:

    Re # 111 – I need alot more beers in me to understand.  Give me a few minutes.

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    Don't drink and trade. Your dollars are hard dollars.

  114. 114
    Jerome Blank Says:

    WRES…low vol but really looks good here…charts updated….

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    I made a comment on Bill Grosses statement yesterday … someone else made more of a statement about it today.


    I don't think it is as cut and dry as they make it sound but I would not be surprised to hear about correspondence between the Fed and Pimco.

  116. 116
    elijahwc Says:

    Cramer chimned in on the NFG note earlier this am.  I'm afraid to put anything Cramer on this space, but he is right on this one.  Mario Gabelli touts it evey time he gets TV time.  2nd largest holder.
    National Fuel Gas Is Holding Aces
    By Jim Cramer
    RealMoney Columnist
    9/22/2010 1:55 PM EDT
    Seneca has hired a banker! And the properties are worth a fortune!
    What's that? You have never heard of Seneca, the natural-gas company that owns the most Marcellus acreage per share of a company?
    I don't blame you. Because it is buried within National Fuel Gas (NFG) , a sleepy Williamsville, N.Y., utility that has a bunch of nat-gas subsidiaries that I think are worth far more than the $3.9 billion market cap of the whole company. That's saying something, because you have a perfectly good 2.88% yielding utility that's not all that expensive even if it didn't own the properties.
    I recently had the CEO of National Fuel Gas on at CNBC, and I urged him to do just what he is doing: Find a way to bring out the value of his booming Marcellus Shale assets. He was mum. But today you got a double whammy: a huge Marcellus nat-gas find and the hiring of Jefferies to bring out value.
    I do not think $2 reflects the full of the company, considering it traded at $54 back in April when nat gas wasn't doing anything much at all.
    This one is so right, and you are not too late. The monetization of Marcellus is huge, even in an environment where the pols are all over these companies and the EPA is coming down right on their heads.
    It is a buy, buy, buy.

  117. 117
    crysball Says:

    Z & CHOICES………..

  118. 118
    crysball Says:

    Z & CHOICES………re #81   LPG Frac technology by  GFS
    Do  any  of  the completion  folks  have  an opinion  on the technolog? With 300  wells under  thier belt  they  should  have  some  data to  share  on the credibility  of  the process  and tradeoffs  against  other  frac  techinques.
    How does  it  compare  in cost, time to perform,  etc.?

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    Crysball – I have no knowledge there. Maybe TEXW, Geno, Reef, or Wyoming do.

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    MMR – that's more like it.

  121. 121
    reefguy Says:

    116-  its almost all in NY state. You cannot frac there, maybe never can!!!

  122. 122
    reefguy Says:

    GST- tomorrow one on one…will report Friday

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    re 122. Very nice, thank you.

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    Crude ended off a quarter, had to get that sell off out of its system.

  125. 125
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Blockbuster planning to file Ch11 tomorrow.  Boy… has THAT one been a long time coming.  Only Rip Van Winkle waking up today would be surprised. 

  126. 126
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    For a down mrkt day, gots to say, the single digit midgits aren't having a bad day at all… GST, KOG, EGY.  And EEP adn EXXI, of course.  TAT is down, but that is what TAT does. 

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    Someone hit the market with a boring stick. Off to soccer, back later.

  128. 128
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    And ATPG is down… but the Offshore Kids got a reminder in the WSJ today about how UTTERLY STUPID it is to continue with the deepwater drilling moratorium.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    Al Qaeda claiming responsibility for attacks on oil platforms in Nigeria.

  130. 130
    crysball Says:

    Since National Fuel Gas [Seneca]    has most  of their Marcellus  assets  in  New York  would think they would be beating a patth  to  the door  of  Gas Frac   and their   LPG fracturing  methodollogy………… and  concurrently  would think  GFS  would  want  to demo  the  technology  to  New York regulators  as   it  might  allow  the state  to harvest some badly needed  tax revenue  without  some of the attendant risks   with  other frac technology?

  131. 131
    choices Says:

    #118-crys-I only know what was in the presentation-I'm trying to get more information but any opinion from operation types on this board would be very important.

  132. 132
    choices Says:

    #115-Thanks, Z.  Sadly, I for one am not surprised-as Zero points out the corruption , imo, the corruption in the financial system is only rivaled by the corruption in the political system-maybe they are both the same.

  133. 133
    RMD Says:

    notes from W. VA:  motels sold out in Weston, W. VA all the way to Clarkston (Clarksberg?), about 30 mi north due to influx of Marcellus people.  Motel full every night these days; people at Weston Comfort Inn most helpful finding something else for us.
    Cafe Cimino Country Inn in Sutton W. VA most excellent dining;  not cheap eats, especially for the area, but every dish was exceptional.  OK wine list too.

  134. 134
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RMD — good poop.  Very interesting.  I'm headed to western PA this weekend… around the Bradford area… heart of the PA Marcellus.  We'll compare notes.  You in GST??

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    Emailed in from Wyoming:

    Yes, I have heard about fracturing with LPG.  All they are really replacing is liquid CO2 that we use for those types of fracs.  I would never consider it as it would be on the same principle as taking a flight on the Hindenburg.

  136. 136
    TEXWS6 Says:

    Sandridge has pumped a couple of GasFrac's jobs in the Pinon field.  I will be contacting the completions guy to determine how effective they were.  Theoretically, it makes sense.  I heard that they were REALLY expensive.  Funny thing, I tried contacting them a month ago to pump a job for me and they still have not returned a phone call or returned an email.

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