20
Sep

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: No ecodata to sway markets early and for once, futures rally instead of fall into that news vacuum. Market reporters claim it's the Macondo capping but I rather think it's just market noise more than some euphoria caused by the capping of well that was already capped months ago. If that is the reason for the rally, it'll be short lived. We get home builder data later today and tomorrow and the market isn't expect much of a boost from those figures. In Energy land, we have "buy out your partner Monday", not as sexy as Merger Monday but it's probably a good move for both of those involved as MMR opted to take PXP out of the deep and ultra-deep shelf plays (see Stuff section below).  I've included an updated, expanded, and even alphabetized Catalyst List in the post as well.


BP Spill Watch: Mission accomplished.

The Week Ahead:  Slow until Thursday.

  • Monday 9/20: Homebuilders index at 10 am EST (F = 14; last reading 13)
  • Tuesday 9/21: Housing starts (F = 535,000)
  • Wednesday 9/22:  EIA Oil Inventory Report, no eco data scheduled
  • Thursday 9/23: EIA Natural Storage Report, jobless claims (F = 455,000), existing home sales (F = 4.1 mm), leading indicators (F = 0.2%)
  • Friday 9/24:   Durable goods (F = -1.4%), new homes sales (F = 300,000) 

In Today's Post:

  • Holdings Watch
  • Commodity  Watch
  • Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List, MMR, SSN
  • Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,200 - biding my time until catalysts have more of an impact
  • 100% Cash

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $2,300
  • 100% Cash

Commodity  Watch:

Crude oil ended last week off 4% at $73.66. The 12 month crude strip was trading at $79.08.  This morning crude is trading flat.

  • CFTC Watch: Apparently a lot of traders agree that weakness in the crude market is to be short lived as longs rallied sharply while shorts gave ground as well resulting in the strong net long position in recent months last week.

Natural gas rose 3% last week to close at $4.02, it's first time above the $4 mark in 3 weeksThe 12 month strip is now trading at $4.44 which is down 3 cents from the preceding Friday. Natural gas in storage rose slightly more than expected on holiday-light demand and mild weather. Last week's weather was more summer like and with a full week's demand from the industrial segment this Thursday's injection report should be well back away from triple digit land. This morning gas is trading off 6 cents.

 

  • Weather Watch:

    • Week before last: Cooling Degree Days of 41 which, yielded an injection of 103 Bcf.
    • Last Week: CDDs of 41, but warmer in the parts of the country that matter most for gas-fired generation.
    • This Week's Forecast: 47 CDDs, 18 higher than normal and 6 points higher than last year.


Tropics Watch: Another system is coming off Africa, early forecasts give it a better chance of getting into the Gulf. 

Stuff We Care About Today


Catalyst List


Key changes:

  1. Additions to the list (or back on the list):  EXXI, FST, GST, MHR, PXP, TAT, TRGL, WLL
  2. Yellow highlights indicate changes or new items.
  3. This table has been archived on the Catalyst Tab
     

MMR Operational Updates

  • Blackbeard East

    • drilling ahead below 24,800', on its way to total depth of about 29,950'
    • 2 sands identified so far, these are coming in high to the Blackbeard West sands
    • MMR has 38.5% WI, PXP has 31.5% and EXXI has 18%
  • Davy Jones 2

    • setting intermediate casing at 15.125' also on way to a PTD of 29,950'
  • Lafitte Ultra-deep prospect (Eugene Island Blk 223)

    • rig moving to location
    • permit expected "imminently"
  • Bleuberry Hill

    • Logs confirm previously reported 105 net feet of pay
    • Expect first production in 1Q11
    • MMR holds 42.9% WI, PXP holds 47.9% WI
  • And Lastly:
    • MMR to buy Shelf properties from PXP for $818 mm

      • Issuing 51 mm shares, $75 in cash, and 2 board seats to PXP
      • For this they get all deep and ultradeep interests on the Shelf, including Davy Jones, the Blackbeard wells, Blueberry Hill, and Flat Rock (MMRs core production) from PXP.
      • They'll also be issuing $900 mm in coverts to pay for this in a private placement, 56% to Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and 44% to institutional investors.
  • Nutshell: Good update, need to hear more about the sands seen in BB East. Expect to hear about more sands either this month or next here.
  • Webcast at 10 am EST.

Other Stuff:

SSN Drilling Update - North Stockyard play

  • Well #4, the Gary #1-24H frac continues on schedule, should be done by mid week so expect a rate then.
  • Well #6, the Earl #1-13H is set to spud on Sept 25.
  • The last well in their tiny 6 section slice of the Bakken IP'd at 3,000 BOEpd, an impressive rate for a short (1 section long) lateral.
  • Expect to see news on the second closing of their Niobrara acreage transaction later today or tomorrow. 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • To be added in comments

174 Responses to “Monday Morning”

  1. 1
    milepost_43 Says:

    TGA CEO…"clear line of sight to 20,000bpd".. —

    This would be about double forecasted end of 2010 rate of 11,000.
    Ck out presentation. Website link http://www.trans-globe.com/investors/presentations-and-events/index.php
    click on Peter's & Co for audio and then you will have to manually click thru slides as Ross talks. Slides are the Sept Corp Presentation. Another presentation coming today Mon Sept 20.

    Next 2 years will be transformational. 2 high potential basement tests should be down by Feb. Should have huge reserve add reported in late Jan/early Feb. Am playing Mar calls here.
    GMP upped target to C$10.60 this week.

    Next usual PRs would be 3Q early Nov and Mid Q update mid Dec.

  2. 2
    bill Says:

    last week i asked,
     
    How could PXP sell shelf assets and hold onto the upside..well they found a way
     
    http://investor.plainsxp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=132091&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1472780&highlight=

  3. 3
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Monday Morning Thoughts… TED at +14bps… Market not seeing anything under the bed right now.
     
    MMR/PXP news pretty big… and pretty darn positive for my fav Way To Play the Ultra Deep (EXXI, of course).  MMR just laid a very heavy-handed Stamp of Approval on their Ultra Deep thesis, conveiging to the market the following "Dude, this stuff is gonna be wow-Economic!"
     
    It had better be.  I mean, I think it will be (hence the position in EXXI), but MMR has upped their risk profile (and volatility) to (hopefully) up their returns from the multi-year Ultra Deep Program.  Having a Tiger By the Tail wasn't enough for Jim Bob… he needed to grab the Tiger and saddle it up for a romp thru the jungle.  Gonna be a wild ride!  MMR has the balance sheet to do this… but will be interested to see where they price those converts.  Not a lot of cash flow + exploration funding leeway… however, if DJ and BBHill come in like gangbusters, then MMR can turn around and flip more of the ownership to a larger player.  JimBob is playing high stakes poker here, but he knows a lot bettern me, what cards he holds.  Will be on the 10am update call…

  4. 4
    bill Says:

    PXp is up 50 cents premartket and mmr is down 30 cents

  5. 5
    bill Says:

    MMR is raising 900 m looks like the money is already committed
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/McMoRan-to-buy-Gulf-assets-apf-636847335.html?x=0&.v=2
    exxi likes the news up 25 to 50 cents pre market

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Going to be an interesting call, I'd bet the Tcfe word is going to get dropped about a dozen times. EXXI is kind of a no brainer up here, they already have exposure in something someone else, the operator in fact, wants this badly.  MMR long term probably good if all works but going further into debt and to get there makes the call on the stock more mixed. A lot will depend on geology comments, what have they got in those said at BB East for example. Are they clean? How many feet are we talking, etc?

  7. 7
    bill Says:

    Lost in all the M & A news MMR provided an update
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/McMoRan-Exploration-Co-bw-2385574179.html?x=0&.v=1
    BBE to start production in q1, 2011
    Im starting to wonder out loud why would PXP sell these assets at this point
    they must be extremely bearish on the gom or ng or both

  8. 8
    bill Says:

    McMoRan also announced today that the Blueberry Hill #9STK1 deep gas well located on Louisiana State Lease 340 in approximately 10 feet of water has been drilled to a total vertical depth of 24,200 feet and has been logged with wireline logs. The wireline logs confirmed that the well encountered 105 net feet of hydrocarbon bearing sands with exceptional porosity in the Miocene as previously reported by LWD tools on August 3, 2010. McMoRan is currently completing the well and is targeting first production in the first quarter of 2011. McMoRan owns a 42.9 percent working interest and a 29.7 percent net revenue interest in the Blueberry Hill well. PXP holds a 47.9 percent working interest.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Bill – you did see the Stuff section today, right?

  10. 10
    bill Says:

    lol, no, too excited on the PXP news. Just read it thanks

  11. 11
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tomdavis — your EXXI mo-mo buy is lookin’ nice-nice.

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI = “no brainer”…. totally agree.

  13. 13
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: Do you have an area that trading shares may be throw overboard? $22.50 – $22.70

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    MMR – impressed with the initial read. ZIM probably gets involved in this one today.

    SSN getting a nice early lift, better volume than of late early but still not gangbuster. Should see a pr later today or tomorrow on the 2nd closing, they wait until the funds are in the bank to pr it.

  15. 15
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (although, whenever I say “no brainer,” i usually get bit in the brain… so, let me rephrase that… if MMR is up on this news, EXXI should be up a lot more… better risk profile, all the upside, and FREE CASH FLOW after all capex…)

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Bill – no worries, just wanted to make sure it was visible, lol.

  17. 17
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tomdavis — think i’m gonna pretend i’m you… and just write calls on those trading shares… you?

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Jim Bob Moffett going to get the “well you obviously got a big set of brass balls” award for this one … yet again.

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #18 FORE SHORE!!

  20. 20
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: I’m going to wait for Z’s take of the CC. Love his work and nutshell comments.

  21. 21
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #20 — sounds reasonable. I wasn’t thinking about writing calls ahead of the conf call. Need to see where things settle out, when the smoke clears.

  22. 22
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Next up to bat… ATPG with Telemark well results expected in 2 weeks. Resigned to the conclusion that the Titan monetization will occur after the well results. If i was the lender, that’s what i would do, anyway…

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – MMR

    MMR – Added (25) of the $16 October Calls for $0.62 on the mid with the stock in the $14.60s, to start. See site for news on MMR’s upped interest in the ultra deep and deep Shelf plays today. Conference call at 10 am EST, webcast on the MMR site. May add higher strikes for a quick trade during the call, we’ll see.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Hey, looks like we got the email to text feature working again today.

    Ram – got your email, thanks, check your email.

  25. 25
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: Try to do the calls with the weak sisters not the outperformers. Weak: NE, EOG, BEXP any NG. Strong: WLL, ATPG, EXXI not in MMR until Z convinces me. A woosie when it comes aggressive balance sheets.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    WLL = full fledged breakout. Thanks to West for his comments from that Colorado journal showing rate.

    Bill – I also included PXP in the Catalyst List today.

    Eli – MHR in there as well.

    If you have a stock that you think should be on there please send it to zmanalpha@gmail.com or zman@zmansenergybrain.com. Thanks much.

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tomdavis — i appreciate any insights you have on writing covered calls. I know you have a lot of experience there.

  28. 28
    tomdavis12 Says:

    WEST: Thanks also. Made some moves based on your comments. The cash flow story with WLL seems impressive to a rookie like me.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Tom – my thought is this and I largely stole this from BOP but she will forgive me. When things are turning up for a name or a sector, its the leveraged (who will survive despite their leverage) that you want leverage to.

    10 minutes to the call. I do own the EXXI by the way but only half as much as I once had. Nice call BOP, nice call all along.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Tom – I think West’s next big thing will be PETD and REXX.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    WLL on fire.

  32. 32
    bill Says:

    the market has spoken

    mmr up
    exxi up
    pxp down

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Bill – But as you pointed out, they did keep some upside, in the form of MMR stock.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    OAS continuing to creep quietly higher. Not much at the moment today but the daily chart looks more and more interesting to me.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    SSN doing its pre deal walk up thing.

    Getting on the MMR call.

  36. 36
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 29 I agree with that comment. I have just noticed that the energy complex ( broadly defined) is the worst performing sector this year. I tend to take the more cautious approach when the wind may not be in our sails. Last weak the broad markets were much stronger than the E&P’s. I remember ’96 to ’99 when tech was was the only place to be. May even allowcate some non-energy exposure.

  37. 37
    tomdavis12 Says:

    30 – Have a GREAT deal of respect for West’s opinions.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Slides are up, slide 7 shows the new WI/NRI interests for MMR. Suddenly they are huge in all these plays.

    Slide 8 gives you a good look at the pro forma metrics here, reserves really don’t show the addition you’d expect as not much is booked yet in what they are buying. The production will show a nice bump due to increases from things like Flat Rock which is MMR’s bread and butter.

    Slide 9 : 30 Tcfe gross or 14+ net to MMR, saying gross Tcfe could exceed 100.

    They are going through the financial side now, don’t know if Jim Bob is going to speak to today’s operational update but I’d bet so.

  39. 39
    bill Says:

    mmr is soaring

  40. 40
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MMR = Release the tiger!

    “Better run through the jungle… don’t look back to see.”

  41. 41
    bill Says:

    what do you think of the new convertibles

  42. 42
    bill Says:

    slide 11 pxp ends up with 23 % of mmr

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Bill – yeah, great slide 10, showing you the value of each 2 Tcfe net to them in terms of PV10 at different natural gas prices:

    = $1.8 B per 2 Tcfe of reserves at $4 natural gas,
    = $2.9 B at $5 gas

    So if 14 Tcfe net you are looking at SEC PV10 at $4 gas of about $25 B.

    Vs a TEV as of Friday of $1.8 B

    They scooped this.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Jim Bob talking now.

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #41 — like ’em. But they were pre-marketed… FCX and intitutionals already snapped ’em up. Will trade in the secondary mrkt at some point… but they are 144a right now. So us Mere Mortals can’t play. (Thank you, SEC.)

  46. 46
    bill Says:

    pxp had nri’s between 21 and 25 % so it seems to me they got rid of the cash flow req’ts and still have a 23 % interest in the whole shooting match

    Im not giving up on pxp .. the 2nd shoe is 1 b cash from the deep water stuff

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    MMR Rock Talk Notes 1

    Resistivity in the shales of 2 ohms, should have seen pressure and temp fall as they went through the salt weld.

    The reason for the increase is things like the BB East seeing more sands than expected, as they crossed the salt at a shallower depth,

    The sands are very clean, drilling fast (20 to 40 feet per hour) = hello high porosity.

    ….

  48. 48
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #37 totally agree. When West speaks, it’s worth $$ to listen. Thank you, West.

  49. 49
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    will have to listen to the MMR replay (assuming there is one)… got caught on another call. so TY for posting, z.

  50. 50
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (ha! a CIGX call… )

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    MMR Rock Talk Notes 2

    Thinking they will see a lot more sand (7,000 feet of section) down to 31,000 feet (that by the way is 1,000 feet more than PTD but you knew they had no plans to stop at the original target depth), if only 10% is section and half of that is pay, you are talking a very good find. Could be a lot more. The fact that they have seen so much Miocene, and Wilcox and Tuscaloosa over a 200 sq mile area is why they are throwing out the 100 Tcfe number now for the first time.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    S&P 500 breaking higher, Nicky?

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    BOP – he’s still talking, will keep posting.

    Glad to have you along in SSN now, you are apparently good luck.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    MMR – delighted to have partnership with PXP and EXXI and the Moncrief family.

    PXP Comments on the deal forthcoming

    WLL tapping $95.

  55. 55
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    NBER on the tape putting the Official End of the Recession as June 2009. So, there ya go…

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    PXP comments on the deal:

    Just looking at it from the Davy Jones structure alone, just that structure pays for this entire transaction alone.

    WLL – the 6th time was the chart.

  57. 57
    bill Says:

    flores asked why they move from direct to indirect interest

    same upside but dont have to decide which wells to drill

    I think they wanted to get cashflow positive instead of going to market every year and running deficets so he doesnt view it as a divestiture

    As we seen in other companies, over spending cash is not well received

    I like the deal for everybody

  58. 58
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z –there was a shift in mrkt sentiment, on or around Sept 2nd. A Huge Flood of Debt Issuance (that was very well-recieved) told you that “the climate has changed”… for the better. I honestly think 4Q10 and 2011 investors will re-awaken to stocks as investible… and pension funds have a lot of making up to do… they ain’t gonna accomplish that in bonds alone. Just a few thoughts…

  59. 59
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    maybe “sentiment” isn’t the right word… as there are lots of surveys out there that purport to measure sentiment. It was more of a change in wind direction. It was subtle… but you could see the weathervane shift. And the wind is picking up…

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    MMR Q&A Notes

    Joe Almon @ JPM – why are you swapping a direct interest for an indirect interest?

    Has to do with capital requirements and their ability to use NOL’s to absorb the equity. We’re trying to contain as much NG capex while focusing on their oil business. In other words, they didn’t want to spend more bucks on it.

    Blueberry Hill – how big, what rate to produce?

    They have 2 separate fault blocks, sand is very thick, thinking porosity is 24%, wow – that’s 2x what you see in the best of the Bakken (or course, shales are crappy reservoirs, but still, 24% is very, very nice. )

    Have not found the oil water contact, big structure, need another well to go find it, thinking size for now is 100 to 200 Bcfe still, did not want to risk losing this well but the structure is open ended to the West and South, will have a production test on this well in 2 or 3 weeks (that’s your next big catalyst here, that and more sands at BB East)

    How much more pay did you find at BB East? Can’t define it, hard to say on logging while drilling, which did not function for the last 350 foot feet, had some gas show in part of that on mud log.

    Resisitivity continues to go up as they keep drilling, was at > 2 Ohms

    They are in Rob L sands (you see those shallower than here out in the Shelf) and have not gotten into the Operc and Gyrodina. “We have a lot more to see”

    Is this the start of FCX buying more of MMR? Won’t say, this is an investment by FCX to get leverage on the free cash flow of MMR.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    From Nicky via email:

    Morning Z – resistance at 1135 – 38. 1145 – 50. I am looking for a short term top in the next 24hours.

  62. 62
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: Agree with your nose. 58,59

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    JB – is it still too early to comment on OAS? Thanks, also, we got that WLL move, looks like next stop $100 to me as we have 10 days or so until more big news.

  64. 64
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EXXI reached first major resistance at $22.50, the new daily longer term pattern continues to suggest much higher prices…$32-$34
    consider buying any pullbacks to $21, once EXXI closes above $22.50 this should act as first support

    updated extended view chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    MMR Q&A Notes.

    They may be able to complete the shallow sands at BB East with conventional trees, probably all sands ABOVE 29,000 feet and complete those soon while drilling an exploration tale to grab the stuff BELOW 29,000 feet. The pressure at 25,000 feet is simply well below what they thought.

    Davy Jones #1 will be brought on in 2011,
    Davy Jones #2 – mentioned they could also see the Yegua Turbidite play (high porosity onshore) in this well, in addition to the lower Tuscalloosa.

    Sounds like they are very encouraged by what they have seen in the DJ2 so far.

    I think it probably runs higher than it has so far today, in fits and starts as some flip out of quick gains. There’s a bit of a leap of faith that the Street will have to make to take it much higher but them upping the total size of the play while talking about this happening from shallower zones (still very deep but not the ultra deep) and therefore probably a better bet logistically is key here.

  66. 66
    choices Says:

    thanks, JB-voted

  67. 67
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #64 — thank you. voted.

  68. 68
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — little EGY hit your 5.10 level again… and bounced right back. You are good, guy!

  69. 69
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #63 OAS, looks good…I think there is now enough data to look at the P&F, which shows OAS testing P&F trendline resistance, the $19 level would be a significant break out of both daily and P&F resistance, also a $19 print would be a confirmation buy signal….

    #66 and #67, choices and BOP thank you much for the votes…

    OAS P&F and daily added…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    WLT trying hard for a breakout now as well.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    MMR Q&A

    They are replacing the LWD tool at BB East right now.

    This is a tour de force in Geology 606, BOP, you gotta listen to the replay.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    Vote JB, thanks much.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    “We didn’t go from being the 100th mineral company to being the #1 mineral company by sitting around letting opportunities pass us by” ~ Jim Bob speaking in his role as an FCX board member on what FCX’s investment in MMR.

  74. 74
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #72, Zman, thank you…

  75. 75
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — #71 thanks, will do. I’ve always “gotten” the geology… that is why I’ve steadfastly gripped EXXI. And it is a totally game-changer, for everyone on the shelf. The simple explanation is that geologists have always thought that sand reservoirs bypassed what is now the shelf and tumbled down to lie in what is now the deepwater Gulf. That is simply not the case. Sands were deposited on the shelf, then capped by the salt layer, then deformed by sedimentary compression, salt flow, and tectonics. If the reservoir’s there, it will get charged with hydrocarbons. The piece I’ve been holding my breath for is the physical data from the reservoir… how hot, how much pressure, how much porosity. That is what blows my mind (and makes me hold on tight to EXXI).

    EXXI is just the horse I want to ride in this Run for the Roses. The most important thing is to just pick your horse… and get on. At some point, they will all cross the finish line.

  76. 76
    john11 Says:

    voted here too JB..as usual, many thx.

  77. 77
    ilikericky Says:

    JB me to I am a reguler voter,the charts are great…

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    WHX continuing to creep higher as well. There should be no news here for at least another month and a half, I’ll mark my numbers to market on Oct 1.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    BOP – re 75. Right. Amazing to listen to the number of enormous 4 way closures they are zeroing in on here, some 3 ways too but mostly 4 ways. I hold EXXI stock but continue to play about in MMR because they more volatile trading on the options side and today, for the fact that I really think they scooped this.

  80. 80
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #75 — hope that didn’t sound “snippy” (“i have always gotten the geology”)…. sure didn’t mean too. Your notes and comments and valuations are INVALUABLE, man!! The geology is the “easy” part. lol.

  81. 81
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #76, #77 john and ilikericky, thanks much for the kind comments and votes….

  82. 82
    ram Says:

    ZMAN, thank you. Hopefully that’s O.K.

  83. 83
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MMR is much more liquid and options much more active. So I hear you on your choice and why. But, I will do you a tremendous favor… and stay away from the options. Whenever I dip a toe into that water, I get it bit off. At some point, you either learn…. or run outta toes….

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    re 82, yes, absolutely, sent you an email.

    Re 75, not at all, and the geology is not the easy part for me, lol.

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    …. and if i lose any more toes, i can’t do math! 😉

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    CLB running. I am, as usual, not there, but at some point, will own HAL common that will eventually own it.

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    T Boone on the call, lol, “happy shareholder, buying more stock today”

  88. 88
    bill Says:

    tboone on call, lol

    says mongrief lucky

    says he is buying more mmr

    you gotta love this!!!

    mongrief luck and jimbob skill both will get rich

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Boone with the best example of talking your own book ever, lol.

    His book, “The First Billion is the Hardest” is on my bedstand, fascinating.

    He also says we are going to get an energy plan for this country and it could be filed this week.

  90. 90
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #84 — don’t mean to say it’s “easy.” Just that I had all that stuff beat into my head yrs ago in a class we called “Dep Dump” (for Depositional Environments). Since it was at the Univ of Texas, the biggest Dump to talk about was in their own back yard… the Texas Gulf Coast. So, it’s a little bit of “Back to the Future” for me here…

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Bill – if you haven’t read his book, and I’m only about 30 pages in, I think you will love it.

  92. 92
    bill Says:

    Z, Im your twin..

  93. 93
    bill Says:

    im going to get it, tboone is one of my business hero’s

  94. 94
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    T Boone… wow. This is like living in the Fast Lane… watching history being made in real time. Exciting stuff.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    Bill – you make my job easier.

  96. 96
    bill Says:

    what is an unrestricted subsidary

  97. 97
    john11 Says:

    Obama on hold, wants to talk to Jim Bob also.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Not sure what they meant by that, someone was talking to me.

  99. 99
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 86 CLB made some very impressive comments about the geology of W. Africa just like BOP’s thoughts about our GOM. If you were to look at Owo and Jubilee or the whole area, is there an e&p name you would look at first. Do you have a take on the gov’t interference or not over there.

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    Re 97, lol, yeah, right “we’re from the government and we’re here to help”

  101. 101
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: MS analyst said CHK is putting out a data room for Niobrara. Maybe mentioned last week @ Barclay’s. I had not noticed. CHK’s JV in EFS should be done in the next 30 days. I do not have a position in CHK.

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    MMR call over, gut says higher today, tomorrow, going to be a leap of faith for some to get hands around the new deal and take targets up to offset dilution.

    Tom – well that’s interesting, last I checked they had a big position there, like 400,000 acres. Hmmm. By the way, could be SM is the SSN buyer, just a thought. Here’s to hoping it’s not and that it is either EOG or NBL.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    MCF taking off now, market pretty much liking E&P at the moment, EOG one of the few exceptions.

    Obama to talk on CNBC in 20 minutes, hopefully not a key reversal event.

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    MMR – looks like a short base breakout confirmed, got a $1 on the stock since those calls were taken, they didn’t keep up with delta indication but are doing pretty well nonetheless.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    End of the Alphabet Gang running, WLT $81, WLL 95.70, WHX 20.50.

    MMR running 8 to 9% now.

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    POTUS on CNBC

    DJIA 10705
    S&P 1136
    XOI 1005.6

  107. 107
    bill Says:

    anyone in drybulk with profits might want to take some off table, bdi is stalling out.. the numbers here are ffa’s (futures)

    Tone: Capes a touch softer post index and offered last done heading into the close on better volume…Panamax
    holding with buyers willing last done. Physical on capes remains weak so we should see another sizable drop on
    the index tomorrow
    Capes Index $32634: Oct 31000 unch -250/day Q4 30500 -250 -500/day Cal11 26000 +250 +250/day
    Panamax Index $23313: Oct 26250 unch +750/day Q4 26250 unch +750/day Cal11 21250 unch +500/day
    Smax Index $20775: Oct 22750 unch +750/day Q4 22500 unch +750/day Cal11 18750 unch +250/day
    TSI: $140.00 (up $1.10) Sep 138.00 +3.00 Q4 129.00 +2.00 Cal11 125.00 +2.00
    TSI: $140.00 (up $1.10)
    BID / OFFER
    Sep 137.00 / 141.00
    Oct 131.00 / 134.50
    Nov 129.00 / 131.50
    Dec 127.00 / 130.00
    Q410 129.00 / 132.00
    Q111 127.00 / 130.00
    Q211 125.50 / 128.50
    Cal 11 121.50 / 126.50

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    NG down 5%, giving back a big slug of the recent “rally”. My sense is if we have no immediate threat from the tropics, gas prices go weak. But we are still range bound and most of the downside near term is probably done.

  109. 109
    bill Says:

    answering my own question in 96

    http://library.findlaw.com/1999/Sep/1/126294.html

  110. 110
    choices Says:

    Really got on the wrong side of this one-EOG sucking swamp water, but really hate to chase EXXI or MMR-I’ve NEVER had any luck playing the mo-mo game.

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    Choices – I’m now only holding the starter position in the EOG common. Clearly someone else taking advantage of the chart weakness there to downgrade but I have not seen who it is. Talk has been their EFS wells are weak, EOG debunked that last week so talk moves to 3Q volumes coming up short. I don’t think so but we shall see… watching for an options trade but waiting for it to bottom.

  112. 112
    choices Says:

    Thanks, Z

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    WLT – now confirming a breakout, JB?

    Obama just said he is willing to consider a payroll tax holiday. S&P ticked up a bit on that. I’d say why not consider killing it off for the self employed since last I checked, I can never draw it?

  114. 114
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    And so it begins… based on the valuation implied in the MMR/PXP deal, Madison Wms is upping their PT for EXXI by $4… to $30.

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    EXXI – Madison Williams taking target up $4 to $30 target.

  116. 116
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Obama also said that there is less govt intrusion in business than there was 30 yrs ago… Right. So, can’t believe everything you hear.

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    VLO on the tape … last week saying increasing 2011 capex budget due to improving economics.

    Today they are saying they will restart construction on two hyrdocrackers (diesel production).

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    BOP – hear ya, not drinking the Obamalaide on that one either.

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    re 99, just saw that ? … APC.

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    Obama apparently put everyone to sleep.

    Go MMR, nice rally, expecting some good comments from the Street there, thinking the post call move is telegraphing analysts comments tomorrow.

    Going for a set of sprints, back in 30.

  121. 121
    john11 Says:

    Nice director buy at EGY. John Myers bought 40,000 at $5.22 raising his stake to 60,000shs

  122. 122
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    good catch, john11. Thanks for posting.

    Just saw this article pop up on Bloomberg
    ==========================================

    Individual Investors May Be Coming Back to Stocks, Bespoke Says 2010-09-20 16:05:23.620 GMT

    By Joanna Ossinger
    Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) — Individual investors may be moving back into stocks, as gains in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index this month occur at the start of the trading day, the time when they enter most transactions, Bespoke Investment Group LLC said.
    The S&P 500’s average hourly change between the prior close and 10 a.m. is 0.45 percent, higher than the 0.18 percent that occurs in the next 60 minutes until 11 a.m., according to a Sept.
    17 report sent to clients by Bespoke. The difference during the remaining one-hour segments of a session is less than 0.1 percent. The benchmark index for American equities has risen more than 8 percent this month.
    The increase in the hourly percent change is a reversal from the last two weeks of August, when most of the declines happened in the first half hour of trading, Bespoke said. The S&P 500 averaged a drop of 0.43 percent each day through 10 a.m.
    during that period, while no subsequent hour had a mean decline of more than 0.1 percent. It fell 6.5 percent during that time.
    “The individual investor either can’t make up his/her mind, or simply doesn’t even want to,” according to the report from Bespoke, which was founded by Paul Hickey and Justin Walters.
    Investors are “looking out of the side window and reacting to the financial news of the day (or hour, for that matter).”
    The declines in the early part of the sessions in August created a bullish signal in the “Smart Money Indicator,” the report said. The SMI says retail investors, or individuals, trade near the start of sessions, while institutional investment actions are carried out mainly near the close.

    Lack of Conviction

    “Lack of conviction in the marketplace can certainly cause the long-term investor to become frustrated with the market’s ups and downs,” Bespoke said, “but it can also lead to temporary dislocations in the market that create enormous opportunities.”
    Almost $57 billion was withdrawn from U.S. stock mutual funds from May through August, the most during any four-month period since 2008, according to data compiled by the Investment Company Institute. At the same time, more than $590 billion was stashed in bond funds.
    Indicators such as cash flow and dividend yields suggest equities are cheap, and S&P 500 companies are forecast to post the fastest profit growth since 1988. That has been ignored in the past few months by investors burned by the 2008 financial crisis, who got another reason to be wary on May 6, when $862 billion was erased from share prices in 20 minutes.
    Sustained job growth, consistent improvement in the housing market or stabilization in the European Union economies may lure money back to stocks, said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Capital Management in Richmond, Virginia, which oversees $63 billion.
    “For a lot of retail investors, investing in equities has been like slogging through the rain the past 10 years,” he said.
    “They need a sign. They want something they can see, they can touch, they can feel. The question is what the catalyst is, what is it that’s going to generate that sustained growth?”

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Wow, didn’t miss much. JPM calling the rally through 1130 important but volumes are light in individual stocks, not being driven by HF or MF flows, so not a cash but a futures move in the S&P.

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    EGY – yeah, good to see them step up to the plate more personally.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    Coal up nicely across the board, WLT moving with group into recent new highs, BTU looks to be about to do the same.

  126. 126
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MMR — one other thing this deal gets them… is enough capital to fund their Ultra-Deep drilling program. So, that pesky funding gap is filled… without having to find another partner. The converts (notes and perpet preferred) will be issued when the PXP deal closes… but they have already been pre-sold. So, with this one deal, you have taking funding risk off the table and upped MMR’s hold of the (ultra-deep) Tiger.

    Frankly, I have to give JimBob a lot of Balance Sheet credit, for the way this all came together. Don’t think I’ll add MMR to my stable, but can’t argue that MMR isn’t a good horse to pick in this race.

  127. 127
    Dman Says:

    FWIW: Canadian junior gold/silver stocks continue to go a little nuts to the upside, on a day when the metals are flat. There is a good seasonal period ahead, so maybe they are anticipating that. And there is some catching up to do. But still, it’s the animal spirits of it that have got my attention.

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    PXP – OK, got to declare that down day here a vote of “you sold out too cheaply and for too much in stock, not enough in cash”. It will be interesting to see if they two don’t trade more closely going forward after all, maybe with a time lag when good things happen at MMR.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    And as to EXXI, it’s really all good, because you have your operator funded as BOP rightfully points out. Much better position to be able to carry on with testing the ultra deep on a timely basis than they were in at the end of last week.

  130. 130
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Flores has turned into one of the Best contra-indicators in the Energy Space!

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    Hear ya but thinking going forward, it’s not a bad deal for him. If MMR stock explodes he’s got a nice slice.

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    .. its not like the market was giving him credit for being in the same plays with EXXI and MMR anyway, lol.

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    Kass went net short last week, today he is banging the short gong. Still looking for the short corollary to “long and wrong”.

  134. 134
    zman Says:

    I am considering making a shift tomorrow in the ZLT, probably out of a piece of something in the Rockies in favor of an additional interest in something in Turkey.

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    BOP – your ATPG just keeps working higher, nice trading call there.

  136. 136
    ram Says:

    “short and sour”

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    Ahhh soooo, that’s not bad. Not bad at all. Too bad he’s short McDonalds and PF Chang’s, or that would be perfect. I get tired of these talking heads flip flopping on the market from day to day, listing 10 reasons why its going up 1 day and then a week later coming out with 10 reasons why its all going to fall apart. I could never watch football with a guy like that, can’t stand fair weather fans.

  138. 138
    zman Says:

    NOG gaining a bit more popularity all of the sudden. I don’t think we get any news out of them pre 3Q release but it is one of my more recent ZLT longs and I continue to like it as a rapidly growing Bakken player.

  139. 139
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ATPG… i’m thinking 15 or so. That should pinch some shorts where it hurts. Heh, heh, heh.

    But, need the Telemark well… then the Titan monetization… and — oh yeah — drop the drilling ban sooner (than later). That would really get the Bonfire of the Shorts blazing.

  140. 140
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Do you think the underperformance of EOG and HK has some EFS news behind it?

  141. 141
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ATPG — you talk about jumping on the leveraged horse, once the course is cleared for the race?… well, this just might be Secretariat. Key is to keep the horse on the track (no reigning it into the ditch). With the Titan monetization, ATPG has borrowed against everything they can. Pedal to the metal and backs to the wall…. in a way, they make JimBob look conservative.

    I don’t plan on putting ATPG in my address book in ink… just penciling in for now. Speed dating, if you will….

  142. 142
    zman Says:

    Tom – yes for EOG but that is a dead issue. Thinking people are more onto the potential for a guidance downgrade in the next 2 weeks there. On HK, kind of just feels left behind today, there are handful of E&Ps that when slightly negative and then got forgotten today. NG down doesn’t help but I don’t know why that would effect them more than say a SWN who is way less hedged. Looks like bottoming noise to me.

    MMR trying again to get through $16, feels higher but there is a fear to chase anything out there with the market up 4 weeks now and strong today (hey, could have used this action on Friday).

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    Tom – I should have said “that should be a dead issue” after last week’s presentation… it still may be an issue with some analysts however.

  144. 144
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 142 SWN was down 6% last week so maybe they got to the bottoming process sooner. Have a call into shareholder relations for EOG. If they mention anything we have not seen here I’ll throw it out.

  145. 145
    zman Says:

    Tom – they are a pretty circumspect lot on the phone. If you get Maire (pronounced Moi-ra) Baldwin you are likely to get referred to one of their presentations.

  146. 146
    cargocult Says:

    SD can’t get no love.

  147. 147
    zman Says:

    Eli – re WLL from last week, you did see West’s comments right? Big wells at Lewis & Clark open up a new world for them as they really don’t have that big an acreage position with their Sanish and Parshall plays in the core. Bakken is pinched out down at L&C but they have a lot of acres.

  148. 148
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 145 I usually like to give them an answer to the question and see if they add anything more. I can imagine on down weeks they get many nervous calls. Try not to be that.

  149. 149
    zman Says:

    S&P approaching Nicky’s 2nd resistance range.

  150. 150
    choices Says:

    EOG-certainly do not know what analysts’ opinions are “out there” but down volume bothers me a lot-Fri, vol 7 mil, today vol now over 4, 65 day average vol 2.8-“maybe” signs of exhaustion or bottoming but I certainly am confused-the last two presentations, Papa has been very strong on EFS

    -short interest is neglible

  151. 151
    Dman Says:

    Any particular reason crude was bouncy today?

  152. 152
    zman Says:

    Tom – that’s a good plan. Nobody hate’s the question “why is your stock down” than me. Well, maybe someone whose stock is down, but it highlights a certain accusatorial/lazy tone that won’t get you anywhere. And those guys are well aware of what’s going on with their stock, lot of frustration in Papa’s tone at Barclays.

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    Choices – analysts are scared they will miss the quarter due to an oil production short fall in the U.S.

    Dman – equities raging.

  154. 154
    Dman Says:

    Z – Goldman was defending EOG last week. Not sure that’s a good sign, but …

  155. 155
    choices Says:

    Maybe Benjie will promise everyone a rose garden tomorrow.

  156. 156
    Dman Says:

    BOP – CIGX having a good day

  157. 157
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dman — CIGX is going to be “one for the ages” or it’s gonna be a donut hole. I’m (personally) going with the former outcome, until proven wrong.

    It’s acting like a duck, moving thru the water… lots going on down below that we can’t see. Only a machine would short this stock now…

  158. 158
    Dman Says:

    “short and caught”

  159. 159
    zman Says:

    WLL – good volume going into close, liking the breakout of a 4.5 month base here.

  160. 160
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 152 It is how I have developed a relationship with NE. They actually called me once to see if I knew anything. Was very happily surprised.

  161. 161
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Well… THAT didn’t suck! Nice day.

  162. 162
    zman Says:

    Dman – makes since but doesn’t sing to me. How about “tweet and beat”. Still can’t believe a true short would put out their short position on twitter.

  163. 163
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    “twitter and bitter”?

  164. 164
    jat Says:

    how about short and f**ked.

  165. 165
    zman Says:

    re 163, not bad

    re 164 – I’m sure there is a midget tossing joke in there somewhere.

    Weird above market, after market prints at SSN at $1.45.

    Glad to see MMR hold near HOD at the close.

    As BOP said, nice day. Beerthirty.

  166. 166
    Pati Says:

    From “The Street:” Ref: “Samson Oil & Gas (SSN)
    Based in Australia, Samson Oil & Gas(SSN) is engaged in oil and gas exploration in Australia as well as the U.S. Since January, SSN has seen an incredible gain of 433%, compared to small gains by the broader markets. At the beginning of 2010, the stock was trading around a quarter, and is now up to $1.29 as of this writing. Based on its affordable stock price and its recent stock surge, Samson Oil & Gas is an energy penny stock worth buying. “

  167. 167
    milepost_43 Says:

    TGA…Stock up 10% today on 5x vol
    Today’s presentation
    http://jetslides.tv/webcasts/225
    Ross leads off with goal of doubling both production to 20,000bpd and reserves in next 2 years

  168. 168
    zman Says:

    Re 166. Thanks that explains it. What in-depth, insightful analysis! Buy something for the simple reason that it has been going up. Something isn’t affordable because the price per share is low. If they like that argument I’ll issue a few million shares in my house and then sell it to them for a buck a share. That is simply moronic.

  169. 169
    zman Says:

    TGA on my list of things to get to know better, was in there to be done after EGY, GST etc, so getting closer.

  170. 170
    West Says:

    Thanks for nice comments…As I have told Z more than once, this is one very special site…Thanks Z for all of the great information and concise updating of company news…..One of the best things about this site is the incredible sharing of information and knowledge by all posters. Good information makes you money….My thanks to you all for an very prosperous relationship….Oh yeah and some of your are very entertaining, especially BOP…I'm a big chart fan and JB's are as good as you will find anywhere…THANKS

  171. 171
    zman Says:

    Backatcha West! Was just writing a thank you note of an open for tomorrow's post.

    REXX and PETD have inched their way onto my main market watch.

  172. 172
    West Says:

    REXX…………From last Friday's RMOJ report and notes..Rexx has acquired an additional 1,760 acres at $1,477/AC IN 15N-62W. These have 2 permitted wells by previous operator Duncan Oil out of Denver on this acreage. Their is also a pending permit for Rexx/Duncan for horizontal at 9-16n-66w which would place this on NW side of Silo Field where they have about 10k ac (estimated from last presentation not known if this is net mineral acres)….. Rexx's current well that should be and maybe has been fracced is in ne-ne22-15n-64w……..SM's good horizontal that IPed at 1,075 boepd and  that field reports have averaging 480 boepd now, is located in ne-ne19-15n-64w. SM has proposed offset 1 mile southeast waiting upon state  approval to spud. In Silo Field proper Jonah Gas has 19 wells staked  in 15-17n by 65-67w. This looks like probably NBL's recent drilling between current wells down in Wattenberg field…….The Silo Field was originally discovered in 1981 and has produced 8bcfg and 10mmbo from the Niobrara………From Rexx's recent presentational map page 18 , they are in a highly prospective area  with known oil maturation and up to 300 feet  of potentional source rock with high organic content………….I'm long the common at 10.65 and hoping that we are in a bull flag formation………..Near term cat plays, like the next 2 weeks , for me are REXX, MHR and TAT…I also think that BOP is right about CIGX and I am long there and getting longer.Thinking about how many times people can't smoke and would choose this product, planes,work,schools,restaurants and on and on……One of those  people that would be real happy with a real big red day. 

  173. 173
    zman Says:

    Thanks again West, any thing in the RMOJ on who it is that's buying SSN's land? Hear you on TAT, planning to add more either today or this week, decided what get's punted in the ZLT to do that (SWN), not stunningly happy about it but I may repurchase and the potential gains of the first outway whatever SWN will do in the near term. 

  174. 174
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #170, West, thanks much for the comments, I very much appreciate it….

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