13
Sep
Monday Morning And All Is Greener
In the beginning, we smiled at the gassiness of things. Then we learned to flip over, followed by crawling and walking and then running, sometimes with sharp objects in our hands called options. But mostly with seeming safer implements called stocks. And this month we turned 4 years old. Thanks to all for making ZEB a constructive idea generator. Please click here if you missed the weekend post and graphs. If you know of anyone who should see that feel free to direct them to the site. Thanks again, Z
Market Sentiment Watch. For once, not dazed and confuse. China's industrial output jumped more than expected late Friday and new banking regulations regarding capital requirements under Basil III provided more certainty which is what market participants have been craving. In energy land, the week should be dominated first by the Rodman Renshaw conference (smaller names) and then the Barclays Capital Energy Conference (small and big names alike). These conferences should provide plenty of opportunities for operational updates in several owned names. Peters & Co. is also holding a conference this week but I haven't tracked down the schedule yet. I plan to be on conference calls most of the week.
The Week Ahead:
- Monday 9/13: Federal Budget at 2 pm EST
- Tuesday 9/14: Retail Sales (F = 0.3%, F ex autos = 0.5%), Inventories
- Wednesday 9/15: EIA Oil Inventory Report, Empire State Index (F 7.5, last read was 7.1), Industrial Production (F = 0.1%)
- Thursday 9/16: EIA Natural Storage Report, Jobless Claims (F = 458,000), PPI (F = 0.8, Core = 0.1%), Philly Fed (F = 0.0, last reading was -7.7)
- Friday 9/17: CPI (F = 0.3%, Core F = 0.1%), Consumer Sentiment for September (F = 69.5, last read 68.9)
In Today's Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Stuff We Care About Today –
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):
- $5200
- 100% Cash - waiting in the weeds until the market starts to pay attention to catalysts again.
ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
- $5,700
- 11% Cash
Commodity Watch:
Crude oil ended last week 2% higher at $76.45. The 12 month crude strip is trading at $80.08. This morning crude is trading $0.50 to $0.75.
Natural gas eased a percent last week to close at $3.89 but near term, the damage to gas appears to be largely done. Thinking a new trading range of $3.50 to $4.25 is forming for the next 8 weeks. The 12 month strip is now trading at $4.47. This morning gas is trading off slightly with milder weather and a continue lack of imminent tropical threats to the Gulf.
- Tropics Watch:
- Hurricane Igor - no threat to land
- Tropical Storm Julia, probably also no threat
- Remnants of Gaston, may be a threat to the Gulf later this week
- Hurricane Igor - no threat to land
- Weather Watch: Cooling Off
-
- Week before last: Cooling Degree Days of 72 which, yielded an injection of 58 Bcf.
- Last Week: CDDs of only 41 which was cooler than the original forecast of 48 and just below normal and last year's reading, both at 44. We also had a holiday last week so look for a significantly larger injection this week.
- This Week's Forecast: 39 CDDs, in line with normal and last year.
Stuff We Care About Today
Rodman Renshaw Conference:
Other Stuff
- Seeing lots of debt deals - CLR and BEXP today alone, WLL last week.
- APC - Another successful well off Africa, the Owo-1 sidetrack sees additional oil pay off Ghana, 225 net feet of pay over a 655 foot interval. APC is dispatching another drillship and will spud another of their exploration targets in the area in 3Q.
- EGLE opens trading operation
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- HAL - UBS raises target $4 to $43, rating Buy. I continue to think analysts are still waking up to the fact that estimates are too low on the coming quarters.
- PCX - target cut $5 to $21, stays Buy at Brean Murray
Interesting Reading Watch:
Keystone XL looking for Bakken crude
September 13th, 2010 at 7:49 amBILLINGS, Mont. — TransCanada Corp. and Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer have scheduled an official announcement Monday on the company's 1,980-mile Keystone XL pipeline. The company said Friday it will hold a so-called open season to offer pipeline access to oil producers in Montana and North Dakota.
Calgary-based TransCanada had faced political pressure to let U.S. oil companies tap into the project.
The company's primary aim is to carry oil sands crude from Canada to Gulf Coast refineries – following a route through several major oil fields along the Montana-North Dakota border.
Industry representatives say interest in developing Montana and North Dakota oil has been hampered in part by a lack of pipelines.
Good morning. China's continued economic growth + the resolution of Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital requirements from Basel III have put a bid to the market this morning. Europe and Asia were strong last night and there is no reason to think the strength will not spill over into the US market open.
September 13th, 2010 at 7:53 amAs far as Basel's new (higher) capital requirements go (phased in from 2013 – 2019), US banks are "95% of the way there" with every one of our major banks already meeting or exceeding the targets. Nice to know. Basel III thinks the new reserve mandatates will reduce the chance of a financial panic to less than 2% (I don't know how they cam up with that number, but it's nice to see it's pretty darn low). Richard Bove is on the tape calling the new Basel requirements "excellent." When Richard talks about banks, I listen.
TED Spread is responding positively. Settling back into this comfortable armchair range of 15.2 bps. Any lower (tigher) and I start to worry we are getting TOO comfy.
Blackrock filed a form notifying EXXI that they now own over 10% of EXXI's common stock as of August 31st. The guys at Blackrock are smart… 'nuff said.
Z,
September 13th, 2010 at 8:06 amVaalco Energy [EGY] presents an operation update at the R &R at 4:55 PM Today, according to their website:
http://www.vaalco.com/html/PR/Press09-09-2010.htm
re 3 – opps, will try to be on that one.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:11 amRE 2 BOP on Friday late I read your post on the credit cycle which was great.One quick question can you explain what you mean by Equity Premium?My guess its the Dividend Yield compared to Bond Yield?Just a guess thanks…
September 13th, 2010 at 8:13 amAnyone at Rodman today ? I may be there for a couple of hours …
September 13th, 2010 at 8:18 amre 2. Agree with all of that. Am a bit concerned about the argument that if regulators regulate to a common, world wide requirement, that it could lead to a worse, systemic problem down the road. After all, banks were encouraged to have the "safe" asset class of mortgage backed securities on their balance sheets once upon time…
September 13th, 2010 at 8:18 amilikericky — "equity premium" can mean different things in different cycles. For example, during the Tech Rally, "Sales-to-price" was a common ratio (which was just ridiculous, we all know now in hindsight). During the last run-up, EV/EBITDA got way outta whack…. as did PE. But, "equity premium" by the book is the company's "cost of equity" as compared to the 10 or 30 yr treasury yields. Coming up with the "cost of equity" is not easy… it's not something one can look up on Bloomberg (as a corporate treasury colleage famously asked, yrs ago)… but it's something every company treasurer and CFO should have a current handle on. When that premium gets too low, companies should be issuing equity to pay down debt… b/c the next credit cycle leg down, she is a-coming.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:24 amBottom line — no freeway billboard on that one. But looking at a large company (like GE) and estimating their YoY after-tax growth rate + dividend yield and comparing that to 10-yr US treasury yield will give you a pretty good metric, I would think. Key is your assumptions (isn't it always).
Glad you found the credit cycle post helpful. Thank you for saying so!
Link to TAT call in 10 minutes:
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/rrshq18/register.aspx?conf=rrshq18&page=tat&url=http%3A//www.wsw.com/webcast/rrshq18/tat/
Links to other Rodman calls:
http://www.rodmanandrenshaw.com/conferences?id=54&link=confwebcasters
September 13th, 2010 at 8:25 amWLT pre market saying "thank you China!" That is one volatile trader.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:27 amSD continues to bounce, good call to Eli and others who have played the bottom fish oppy there.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:28 amHelping oil this morning, along with equities is the continued closure of Enbridge's 760,000 bopd pipeline from Canada. EPA says workers still have not found the source of the leak.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:30 amLatest Enbridge pipe story:
http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/company-news/enbridge-oil-pipe/19631092/
FYI, these things have a way of correcting the price back to the starting point when they are fixed, pretty much no matter the distance from that point, and quickly.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:31 amTAT starting now. Notes on anything new to follow.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:34 amTAT conducting Malone Mitchell history 101.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:36 amTAT has been selling itself on NMM the 3rd's resume for a long time. At some point, Cowboys on Camels need to show us the money (and not just NMM 3rds). Any comments on timeline there will be helpful. thanks.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:39 amBOP – yeah, they are getting closer to that part now but these are very short presentation slots.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:41 am#17 — kinda like Speed Dating, eh?
September 13th, 2010 at 8:43 amMorning all. Did not see the weakness I was expecting Friday into today. So now looking for a top in the Wednesday timeframe (plus or minus a day) and then weakness into 21st/22nd September.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:48 amWe have resistance here (and a gap fill) and then 1129 – 31. Support at 1115, then 1109.
TAT Notes
Getting $7.25 to $7.50/ MMBtu for gas now
Thrace Basin – 10 mm/d net, 10 mm/d awaiting pipe (same as last time) , most of the 2nd 10 will be on by year end
Thrace Basin deeper potential – tight gas sands, going to be fraccing stuff that is "new" in completions in Turkey but would be run o the mill in the States
Plan is to take old "show wells" that were uneconomic, 600 m/d wells long ago, to high rate wells via fraccing.
Selmo – 2000 bopd net now … this has been the real disappointment relative to my initial look here, was forecast by them to be much higher. Added a 2nd rig in August.
Arpatepe – 250 bopd (this is where they've been doing acid jobs, and seeing strong results. (30 bopd, acid, 500 bopd in March, now 350 bopd (gross))
Bakuk Anticline – gas discovery, "tremendous gas show", very large structure, not news, thinking it could be 10 mm/d open, but produce at 6 mm/d, now looking for an oil leg.
Exploration on Block 4175 (southeastern Turkey) – end of month for results, this would be a game changer if they hit a big one as it is an analogue to structures seen in nearby Iraq. No comments other than they have set intermediate casing and are drilling ahead.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:59 amThanks much Nicky, appreciate your levels.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:59 amFull Rodman schedule. There are a few Canadians on there too and some other commodity names as well.
http://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_6089/~public/nh/conference_presentations.html?event_id=6089
September 13th, 2010 at 9:00 amRaymond James downgraded HK, CHK etc to market perform, seeing on Reuters
September 13th, 2010 at 9:01 amThanks Eld, any reasons given? They don't like people outspending CF in a low price environment? Little late to make that call.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:03 amOil $77.50, NG up a penny to $3.90. NG feels heavy, Gaston probably the only thing keeping it away from $3.50.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:04 amre 23. Wondering if they hit UPL and RRC too. Barclays said to avoid last week.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:05 amJB – WLT trying for another breakout of this range. Thanks for all your chart work. What's your thinking on the McClellan at present?
September 13th, 2010 at 9:08 amHAL just broke out. Going to need a full day's+ volume to be convincing but this is a 4 month high.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:13 amRaymond james …
Chevron (CVX) downgraded to outperform from strong buy
September 13th, 2010 at 9:16 amForest Oil (FST) downgraded to outperform from strong buy
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) downgraded to market perform from outperform
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) downgraded to market perform from outperform
Petrohawk Energy (HK) downgraded to market perform from outperform
Range Resources (RRC) downgraded to market perform from outperform
Swift Energy (SFY) downgraded to market perform from outperform
SM Energy (SM) downgraded to market perform from outperform
Ultra Petroleum (UPL) downgraded to market perform from outperform
Exxon Mobil (XOM) downgraded to market perform from outperform
z — thanks for the bullet points on TAT. So, could be an "end of Sept" sort of event. Not long to wait. Good to hear. Thanks.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:16 am#27 $NYMO = 43.43 at the close Friday, not overbought enough to be of much help at the moment…
September 13th, 2010 at 9:19 amBOP – yeah, that's what they said too. If it is big, then it will be really big. If it is dry, it didn't take long to find that out either. Not a lot of color but there you have it. Those structures across the border are obviously massive. Some single wells IP at as much as 5x BEXP total co production (> 30,000 bopd). Hit one of those and Malone has resume 4 to talk about.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:20 amThanks JB, thanks much. Do you like the HAL chart at the moment, a very near term concern for mel.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:20 amThanks Nifkin
September 13th, 2010 at 9:29 amRe: #33, HAL goes back on a P&F buy signal at $32, intraday HAL looks strong right now, if the broad mkt holds up, the buy signal should act as a magnet, hard to see any reason to cover at the moment…updated daily
September 13th, 2010 at 9:31 amhttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280
Just to straighten out the record, I like AREX, not AXAS. I can't figure out why AXAS is scattered in so many areas without any scale in a core. Also get the impression mgt is full of it.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:33 amJB – thanks, will go vote.
RMD – my bad, but you mentioned it more than once so it is your burden to bear. Re management, agreed, surprised they haven't changed the name.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:35 amRE: #37, Zman, thank you…
September 13th, 2010 at 9:40 amPETD in 2 minutes. Think Niobrara, then West Texas, gassy going oily with recent divestment of gas and acquisition of Spraberry/Wolfberry
Webcast here:
http://investor.petd.com/events.cfm
I keep missing these guys on the red days
September 13th, 2010 at 9:49 amRodman is a madhouse, super long lines.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:50 amZ- GST or TAT??? if you only have enuf money to own one.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:52 amThanks for the feedback Jat, cheaper to drill on Wall Street than in the field me thinks.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:52 amEld – I don't hold GST yet. Very different stories. But both have upcoming catalysts.
PETD call not on time.
September 13th, 2010 at 9:55 amPETD Notes
60,000 Marcellus acres
but 97% of company is in the Wattenberg (CO) in terms of reserves
getting oilier, have been gassy but going to 65/35 oil / gas mix in 5 years as a target
Identified potential reserves to double current reserves, can do almost within cash flow.
…
September 13th, 2010 at 10:04 amPETD Notes 2
Wattenberg Field
70,500 net acres, they are 30 miles from EOGs wells
The 10 NBL wells are all around PETD's land
NBL thinking these are 300,000 barrel EUR wells
One of NBL's wells was a horizontal in amongst verticals and it has been NBL's best well to date
'PETD things their whole acreage block is prospective, no rush to drill all HBP, letting others do the early heavy lifting, but will spud their first horizontal Niobrara in October.
Vertical Wattenberg – $600K cost, 43 boepd IP
Horizontal Watt – $3.5 mm, IP of 289 BOEpd… better returns
September 13th, 2010 at 10:11 amATPG supposed to start… let us know when PETD is over, ok?
September 13th, 2010 at 10:17 amPETD Notes 3
Wolfberry – 120 location
$1.25 mm a pop
Starting 1 rig program in 4Q, will flesh this out more in tomorrow's wrap post of this.
Targeting 70% 3 yr growth
Marcellus – 3 wells so far, thinking they are at least 3 Bcfe wells, maybe as much as 5 Bcfe.
3D done, no problems on their acreage identified, add another 3D shoot this fall to get complete coverage
1 well program restarts late Q (after drilling the first 3 they wanted to step back and see what they had)
Hedges – big piece hedged (78%) above $6.17 for 2010; 2011 @ 74% @ 74%.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:17 amShould be over in 1 minute
September 13th, 2010 at 10:18 amTAT and PETD getting no lift from presentations.
ATPG going into theirs strong
September 13th, 2010 at 10:18 amATPG = all about the Telemark development well… supposed to add 7-10k b/d of production from the Titan platform. Mngmt has said the well would be completed by the end of September. It is important that Mngmt do what they say they will here. Very important.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:20 amATPG starting…
September 13th, 2010 at 10:23 amwhy is Telemark so important? Well… company's 2Q production was 21.3k b/d… Telemark = 7-10k add… fingers crossed.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:24 amWonder if ATPG has been in EGY's Angolan data room. hmmmm….
September 13th, 2010 at 10:25 amATPG "valuation" is compelling ONLY if they Telemark hits within the targeted production and if they can get Titan monetized. Asset's don't pay interest to banks and bondholders unless they are flowing cash.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:29 amZMAN – Too kind. WLL seems to be tied to chart masters instead of Oil and the S&P.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:30 amRAJA cuts nat gas "11 guess from $4.75 to 4.25 as "gas fundamentals should get even worse in 2011". Oil short term outlook hazy, long term intact. Lower '11 guess from $90 to $80.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:34 amGas stocks near high of range at 6.5X foreward Eda.
Thinks gas cos will increase '11 hedges, even at today's strip.
Re WLL – was just mulling pulling the $95s as that's a real long shot at this point and reloading with Octobers for end of month-ish report on 3 more L&C wells in the Three Forks.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:38 amBOP – I heard nothing new in the Telemark segment, well on by end Sept/early October. Platform loaded for capacity by 3rd well or at least by the fourth and final well at the 25,000 bopd design, sounds like maybe not getting to the gas limit of 50 mm/d but not really caring about that.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:46 amATPG — was thinking that they would (could) get the Titan Platform monetization completed at "any time." Pondering… now thinking that it makes more sense for GE to do a sale/leaseback after the Telemark #3 results are in. And that sounds like a Sept 30th (plus or minus) event.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:46 amATPG – addressing the shorts. We have 3 large catalysts that are going to occur near term, 1) production ramp due to Telemark, plus 2 other wells, 2) Titan monetization (almost closed in April). working to close, met with them yesterday, it will happen, don't know, 3) 2 more re entry permits at Telemark will be granted.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:48 amATPG… sheesh… HATE the back-peddling from the Sept 30th date as a hard deadline. These guys have a reputation for overpromise/underdeliver… so, don't SAY "Sept 30th" unless you know you can HIT Sept 30th. Sheesh.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:48 amGetting on the EPL call
September 13th, 2010 at 10:49 amBy the way…
September 13th, 2010 at 10:51 amHAPPY 4TH BIRTHDAY, z!!!
BOP – i hear from other operators it has been an unusually choppy Gulf of late, even without any tropical action.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:51 amreplay for atpg
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/rrshq18/atpg/
September 13th, 2010 at 10:54 amRe 63. Thanks much!
BOP – do you know energy partners? Oily, offshore, I haven't paid much attention to them in years and years. Listening now.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:54 am… and they appear to be the lowest cost operator in the Gulf.
September 13th, 2010 at 10:57 amEPL – I have never seen someone spend so much time talking about plugging and abandoning wells in a presentation.
September 13th, 2010 at 11:00 amKeep up the good work Z (and everyone else that participates on the site.)
September 13th, 2010 at 11:00 amEPL — haven't followed them.
September 13th, 2010 at 11:03 amOff to a lunch with the few energy people who are NOT at R&R, it sounds like.
Looks like few on the Street follow EPL. Wonder why? Are tey lower cost than MCF?
September 13th, 2010 at 11:08 amThanks 1520, thanks for your participation over the years.
Thanks BOP
RMD – checking
September 13th, 2010 at 11:17 amEPL- post BK thry are controlled by Carlson Capital…
September 13th, 2010 at 11:19 amWLL at 30 min intraday support right here at $90.46, major daily suppport at $88.25-$88.75…
September 13th, 2010 at 11:21 amHAL intraday support at $31.30…
September 13th, 2010 at 11:25 amReef – do you know Wexford? Black Rock in there too. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=EPL+Major+Holders
September 13th, 2010 at 11:33 amZ; Dixie -DX/Y is at 50 day MA on a weekly basis. The 200 day MA is at 80. If Dollar index goes below 80 and continues to 75 -74, you could have the envoirnment of the second half of '09. Good for energy & commodities. FWIW
September 13th, 2010 at 11:36 amCarlson owns Bonds I think
September 13th, 2010 at 11:38 amTom – thanks, exactly.
Reef – right, and 4 mm shares. I used to follow these guys but then they sort of fell apart. Sort of interesting, sounds like they are gearing up for a deep (but not ultra deep) shelf push. Reminds me of Spinnaker a bit, a lot of 3D they are reprocessing, behind AVO, on to widened band width (gotta go look that one up) but it makes the brights spots even more crystal clear apparently. They have a big lease area with only a handful of penetrations below 14,000 feet but in a prolific area at shallower depths. That concept has worked well for others in the past as you know.
September 13th, 2010 at 11:42 amZ, what is your view on the SSN situation-does it look as if it is delayed?
September 13th, 2010 at 11:54 amThanks.
Choices – They closed the majority of the Niobrara transaction last week, on time. The rest is set to close on September 20th. The stock has recovered from the smallish dip it took on the "sell the news" event. We should get more Bakken data this week and they do present on Wednesday.
September 13th, 2010 at 12:03 pmZ,
September 13th, 2010 at 12:16 pmAVO acronym refers to what in reprocessing 3-D seismic?
Is this an image subtraction[fast fourier transfrom] method enhance the bright spots?
amplitude vs offset.
see AVO here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflection_seismology
September 13th, 2010 at 12:18 pmGrabbing some lunch, lull for me in the Rodman schedule. Market looking pretty apathetic about chasing gains here. Oil up 50 cents, NG up 5 cents, tropics look same as this morning.
September 13th, 2010 at 12:20 pmZMAN – It feels that SSN is now selling at a deep discount with the additional funds. I thought SSN had a NAV with cash flow that supported a $1.20 area. I am waiting for the run to commence.
September 13th, 2010 at 12:24 pmRam – right now they have about $0.70 in cash (net of debt), so cash is over 50% of their market cap at the moment is high.
September 13th, 2010 at 12:27 pmKOG trading above secondary level, I think for the first time
September 13th, 2010 at 12:39 pm40 – jat – yeah, wasted my whole morning; I left and am not going back ….
September 13th, 2010 at 12:50 pmHAL — meant to mention, coming back from vacation a week or so ago, I was on the Hertz bus to the airport terminal in Denver, and there were 4-5 HAL people chatting right next to me; I think they were HR people from a couple of different locations; the only thing I caught of note was that they seemed to be saying that they were doing a lot of hiring … noteworthy enough to pass along here; no other coleor.
KOG – yep.
HAL – thanks for that, taking any and all color there.
WLT – back above the 200 day. Volatility = Such a China play
September 13th, 2010 at 12:55 pmOAS call in 1 hour, market trying to hold onto gains. Energy stocks not pacing gains, probably due to downgrades last week and this week in the sector.
September 13th, 2010 at 12:58 pmZ: NFX up 2.5% today. I see they are at Barclay's 9/16. Did not see any catalyst for this name. Any tradeable event that might be tied into today's action?
September 13th, 2010 at 1:02 pmSenate Republicans to block the partial bush tax extension bill.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100913/ap_on_bi_ge/us_tax_cuts
September 13th, 2010 at 1:02 pmTom – yeah saw that, I don't have anything from a catalyst standpoint that would move the company needle here, it's all good from their last update but nothing that I'd call pop worthy. Wondering if Barclays isn't running this one in advance of the presentation as they did with EOG on Friday (and no follow through today).
September 13th, 2010 at 1:04 pm"I am a hugh bull on this country. We will not have a double-dip recession at all. I see our business coming back across the board" so said Warren Buffett today at the Montana Economic Development Summit. I guess BOP is not the only one talking her book.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:09 pmre 94 = LOL
Kass now net short. Was market neutral last week. It's not market timing taken to minute timing. Sheesh.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:13 pmI wish I had bought more than just a taste of KOG.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:17 pmAnalyst Watch:
SD – Barclays cuts target from $10 to $6, keeps Overweight rating
September 13th, 2010 at 1:17 pm#94… as Warren gets older and richer, he becomes more and more of a redistributionist. He and I have not seen eye to eye in a long time. That said, I 100% agree with his comments today.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:22 pmNew Zealand biz tickets: Thank you everyone who commented, we are going on Air NZ.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:24 pmInfo point if you never redeem those American Express points (1 pt per dollar spent), they are worth 1 cent toward a purchase (1,000 points is $10 of goods).
MMR… must be good vibrations coming from BBhill… 'cuz EXXI not moving in lock-step.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:24 pmSeeing a little strength out of refiners today, midwest refiners should be enjoying those soaring midwest cracks for a bit longer with no fix to Enbridge's pipeline at present. MW cracks last 4 weeks
8/20: $8.81
8/27: 10.16
9/3: 11.43
9/10: 13.06
This PADD II – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wisconsin.
MRO/VLO may be most exposed at quick glance. I'm not trusting it although 3Q is shaping up better than many people thought now, could be some upward moves to numbers soon.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:33 pmre 100. Or they are playing the one day delay, then catch up game. EXXI speaks at Rodman tomorrow.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:35 pmhearing that it's probably more buzz on BBhill… that is why PXP is up too. hearing that not only is it gonna be a "great well" but that it further proves up JimBob's geologic model…. which means it is repeatable.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:37 pmOK thanks.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:38 pmOAS speaks in 10 minutes.
The MMR $15s probably a good WildZ candidate, big volume there today.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:40 pmJat – thanks, check your email.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:47 pmAnyone have a good link to the OAS presentation, not seeing the webcast, just the presentation?
September 13th, 2010 at 1:52 pmOK, can't hear the OAS, tooled through their presentation, I see nothing new. This is still very oily (about 93%), with almost 300,000 net acres in the Bakken, a 4 rig program, going to 5 rigs this month, with massive triple digit production but off of a small base, and no debt and enough cash and cash flow to fun the next 18 to 24 months of Capex if they don't go all land crazy.
September 13th, 2010 at 2:00 pmGetting back to my theory that the market is still not entirely paying attention to catalysts, that APC well mentioned in the post should be worth a bit more to the stock than a quarter.
September 13th, 2010 at 2:03 pmI really let NBL slip up and away. Hmm. Mulling.
September 13th, 2010 at 2:04 pmZ: How would you try to follow up with the gigantor discovery of NBL in the Mediterraen? Is this real or not?
September 13th, 2010 at 2:28 pmpxp picks up an upgrade
September 13th, 2010 at 2:28 pmhttp://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204914704575489711756121690.html?mod=googlenews_barrons
Tom – Not sure, but I think I'd drill a mess o Niobrara wells, which seems to be their plan.
September 13th, 2010 at 2:31 pmcontango out with numbers
September 13th, 2010 at 2:36 pmhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Contango-Reports-YearEnd-bw-2663474942.html?x=0&.v=1
mid day on a Monday, one day they will surprise me and do something according to convention. Good cash balance still, production at 105 mm/d is strong. Don't see mention of a CC, you?
September 13th, 2010 at 2:39 pmMSFT on the tape… it is said they are planning a debt sale to pay dividends and do buybacks. This is exactly what is supposed to happen at this point in the credit cycle… debt is so cheap, relative to equity, that companies issue debt and buy their own stock (or other companies; i.e. M&A). If investors are scared of buying stocks… companies will buy stocks. Using cheap debt. Until investors wake up.
September 13th, 2010 at 2:43 pmNo, they never have a cc
They didnt release a balance sheet with year end results. On the surface, better than I expected as i thought they would have a q4 loss
September 13th, 2010 at 2:43 pmbot some msft calls, thats good info
September 13th, 2010 at 2:47 pmSGY was not available for webcast, but will be later in the week at Barclays.
September 13th, 2010 at 2:48 pmre 116, hear ya on that, looking at what are supposed to be post summer trading right now I have to say, where's the volume?
September 13th, 2010 at 2:49 pmSince i can't call timing, i'm buying stocks and not options. But I think it's time to move some more cash into buy-and-hold (for 6 mos, then evaluate) positions. We might still have a sell off (not saying it's straight up and to the right from here). But if companies increasily buy their own stock or do M&A, eventually, investors will get the msg.
September 13th, 2010 at 2:54 pmBesides, natty gassy kids usually rally between now and Nov. Not saying they will "fore shore"… but if history is any guide, that is usually the case.
re #1 XL could take 100000bpd by 2013
September 13th, 2010 at 2:57 pmBILLINGS, Mont. — A Canadian company would ship 100,000 barrels of oil daily from Montana and North Dakota under a proposal to allow U.S. crude onto a pipeline bound for refineries in Oklahoma and Texas.
Calgary-based TransCanada on Monday announced a two-month "open season" to solicit bids from companies that want to tap into its Keystone XL pipeline as it passes through Baker, Mont.
The announcement followed complaints from producers in the Bakken oil field of Montana and North Dakota that they were being bypassed by the new pipeline.
TransCanada vice president Paul Miller says the company will invest $140 million in the Bakken Marketlink — the so-called onramp that would allow domestic oil onto Keystone XL. Miller says Bakken Marketlink could be in service by early 2013.
Beerthirty, should be a busier listening schedule for rest of week.
September 13th, 2010 at 2:58 pmrobry with a +97
September 13th, 2010 at 3:25 pmmcf 10 k out.. they purchased 22 m in stock 450 k shares in the last few months
September 13th, 2010 at 4:29 pmhttp://seekingalpha.com/instablog/576542-onthemarket/92777-from-my-updated-best-idea-list-for-2010
September 13th, 2010 at 4:42 pmmay be of some interest on CIGX
choices — "could be one for the ages." Thanks for pointing it out, sums it up nicely.
September 13th, 2010 at 5:09 pmListening to the EGY presentation replay now.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:36 pmBelated congratualtions on 4 years zman. I have learned and profited a lot from you and the community you have created.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:55 pmThanks very much mimster90!
EGY – song remains the same and it is a very good one. I will do a book report for the morning but look for a better report in the near future. On my like list are simple stories, oily stories, stories with a pile of cash and no debt and a hunger on the part of management to earn a better return on that cash than money markets or treasuries currently pay. And they have stable cash flow.
September 13th, 2010 at 8:58 pmLegacy Reserves LP Announces Acquisitions of Permian Basin and Wyoming Assets
MIDLAND, Texas, Sept. 14, 2010 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Legacy Reserves LP (Nasdaq:LGCY) today announced that it has closed three acquisitions of oil and natural gas properties located in the Permian Basin and Wyoming during August 2010, and has recently entered into an agreement to purchase additional Permian Basin oil and natural gas properties, for a total of $14.9 million. Legacy has funded or will fund these acquisitions with cash on hand and borrowings from its revolving credit facility.
These properties produce approximately 220 Boe per day, of which 79% is oil and natural gas liquids. Legacy estimates that these properties contain approximately 1.0 MMBoe of proved reserves, of which an estimated 76% are located in the Permian Basin and 93% are classified as proved developed producing. Upon the closing of all of the aforementioned acquisitions, Legacy will have acquired approximately $173 million of oil and natural gas properties during 2010.
http://www.legacylp.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=507577
September 14th, 2010 at 7:27 pmthe stamped date and time on my last post is messed up.
September 14th, 2010 at 7:28 pm