11
Sep

ZEB Turns 4!

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This is free Post for September 11, 2010


Thanks for making the last four years an excellent ride! I've been writing my newsletter for four years this month and have been pleased with the quality of interaction and analysis that the subscribers have brought to it. I learn by teaching and the subscribers have taught me quite a lot in the process.

Year 1 was free to the world to build up interest in my corner of the internet.  My objective was to create a place where people could rationally discuss energy ideas … basically the opposite of your usual message board. 

Year 2 we went pay for subscription and membership was surprisingly strong and high quality.

Year 3 I started tracking my performance for stocks and opened up a SEP account as every tax fearing self-employed person should do.  I started focusing more on the long term with stocks being the bigger focus than options for the site.

Year 4 has been a water treading year for options but another good year for the stocks.

I research and invest in energy related stocks in a number of portfolios, primarily but not limited to  the Exploration & Production realm. Oil Service, Coal, Refining and the Majors also make occasional appearances in the portfolios. While I do trade options they represent only a small wedge of my energy focused assets, about 10 to 15% at a given time, as options trading is a tricky game where market forces and timing is as important as being right on the name in question. When options trades work that's great, but they are the icing – not the cake. 

The cake is the The ZLT, (Zman Long Term Portfolio).  It is a stocks only, longer range portfolio. Below please find returns for Portfolio A and Portfolio B.

  • Portfolio A is a taxable account and run with a little more of a buy and hold strategy. It has had a total 17— trades (entries and exits), including the initial five to get it invested, over the last 26 months. 
  • Portfolio B is a non-taxable account but has been only slightly more active. 
  • Generally the portfolios have held between 4 and 7 positions at a time.
  • All of the stocks in the portfolios have been listed on Zman's Energy Brain and emailed to subscribers as ZTRADEs in the ZLT at the time they occur.
  • Both Portfolios were started in mid 2008, just after the peak in the broad markets and what turned out to essentially be the all time highs for crude oil and natural gas.
  • The returns are not modeled. They are mine. 



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The Weekly Wrap:

16 Responses to “ZEB Turns 4!”

  1. 1
    crysball Says:

    Z,
    Congratulations  on #4   and looking  forward to many more as a subscriber.
     
    Two  Small  tidbits  on    MINNOW    Vaalco Energy [EGY]:
    1)Vaalco  will present Monday Sept. 13th   at  the  R & R conference [4:55 EDT], Vaalco  will post a copy  of the slide presentation on their  website after the presentation.
    2) Apparently Vaalco  is  now being  covered  by ML / B of A  as  the  attached  news release  indicates an upgrade.    Cannot  find  anything  on the ML /  B of A  websites……..but am not  one of their clents.  Must CAUTION you this  is  ths  most HORRBILY WRITTEN & CONFUSING  NEWS  RELEASE  I've ever   seen……….guess  this  is what  you get  when you outsource  to Mumbai & Bangladesh:
    http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/09/08/bank-of-america-corp-nyse-bac-upgrades-equity-one-nyse-egy/
    The   pieces of the story   continue to fall into place .

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Crysball – thanks much, glad you like it!

  3. 3
    ilikericky Says:

    Zman Congratulations and I must say that the amount of knowledge you give to people with a basic understanding of Oil and Gas is just excellent.Your stock recommendations have been excellent and even if you have not taken up some stocks I know others have and benefiited greatly.TISDZ.PK for example…..keep on going and well done.

  4. 4
    ram Says:

    Good to be here. Thanks for all you do. Congrats to you and Mrs.Z.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Re 3 & 4. You guys have been with me since the beginning. Your input has been invaluable. Ram keeps me on my toes daily and Ilikericky suggest about 2 years ago that he'd like to see more commentary focusing on the longer term and stocks. Thanks much guys.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    The wrap table has been added to the bottom of this post. Note the continuing ramp in the BDI. Stocks should notice that at some point.

    http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp

     

     

  7. 7
    choices Says:

    Let me add my congratulations as well, Z.  I think I have said it many times that the quality of your analysis is spot on. That, combined with the knowledge base that comes out of the daily discussion from you and the contributors from the industry, provide a very detailed understanding of what is happening in the industry and in the markets.
    The last thing is that you have taught me some patience, something sorely needed in my trading.
    Thanks!
     

  8. 8
    RMD Says:

    Happy Birthday Z.  You are sure helping me sort through the energy patch.  Keep up the good work.

  9. 9
    john11 Says:

    Conratulations Z, what a great site you have created.  I'm so happy to have found it and have learned so much from all of you.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Thanks very much guys, spread the word.

    Nice looking (green) futures this eventing for equities and crude.

  11. 11
    elduque Says:

    Congratulations: You are the catalyst for a great site. If one can't recoup the annual fee, then you are just not listening to your sage advice. 
    Thank you for all you do.

  12. 12
    apbd Says:

    Congratulations, Z 
    I echo the sentiments of all my fellow subscribers.
    Bless you and the family,
    apbd

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Thanks much guys, too kind.

  14. 14
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    well done Z!  i can'timagine energy investing without you and the board.  thanks to all

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Paul – thanks much, that is high praise, very glad you like the site!

  16. 16
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