Thursday – Dualing Natural Gas and Oil Inventory Reports + GST

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Market Sentiment Watch: Jobless claims came in at 451,000, vs expectations of 470,000 sending futures higher.  Expecting a relatively quiet end to the week once we get through today's natural gas and oil inventory numbers. Next week we get a plethora of presentations from a couple energy conferences and we may see a number of operations updates out that coincide with company presentations. I'll have a fresh Catalyst List out Monday. Today's post also contains a GST brief, interesting name, sort of has a gang-that-couldn't-shoot-straight feel to it but with near term potential to hit the mark now. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – GST brief, GMXR
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,200
  • 100% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $5,700
  • 11% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • NONE

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • SSN – Added a few more shares for $1.33.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil rallied $0.58 to close at $74.67 yesterday, on the back of a strong equity market. After the close, the API released mixed bag of a report (bullish on the surface but not in context of the time of year and not with regard to product draws ... see below). This morning crude is trading slightly higher.

Natural gas eased $0.04  to close the day at $3.81 yesterday. Natural gas is tracking the tropics closely. This morning gas is trading flat.

  • Tropics Watch: Tropical Storm Igor in eastern Atlantic, and the remnants of Gaston are trying to reform near Hispaniola. I'm thinking Gaston will squeak into the Gulf over the weekend.

Natural Gas Storage Preview: (10:30 am EST) I'm at 52 BCF for today's report.

  • Last Week: 54 Bcf Injection
  • Last Year: 68 Bcf Injection
  • 5 Year Average: 81 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Hi:  115 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Low: 36 Bcf Injection

The Street is at 57 BCF for today's report.



Oil Inventory Preview

API Watch:

  • Crude: DOWN 7.3 mm barrels - API shows a drop in imports (entirely possible this time of year) and a big bump in weekly refinery utilization (doubtful). Last week they showed a larger than explicable build in crude stocks and a drop in Cushing stocks. This week's report looks like a bit of math working to smooth the two weeks. API has been directionally correct on Cushing inventories of late and reported another smaller draw  last night. 
  • Gasoline: UP 0.6 mm barrels - normally this time of year we are still seeing medium sized draws although not surprisingly, not last year. 
  • Distillates: UP 1.3 mm barrels

Stuff We Care About Today

GST Brief

Gastar has a prolific gas play in the Deep Bossier play of East Texas and a smallish Marcellus position that probably should be sold. For a long time the company had an Australian operation which it sold to create a solid balance sheet. There have been a series of misfires (delays, mechanical difficulties, and production curtailments due to take away capacity constraints)  here over the last several years but the addition of new plays in East Texas (on existing acreage), potentially including the Eagle Ford and hopefully a sale of the Marcellus down the road or at least a joint venture, provide renewed interest in this beaten down name. A CBM operation in the Powder River Basin could also be punted to provide additional firepower in Texas.

The Assets:

  • East Texas - Hill Top Area
    • 16,300 net acres,
    • primarily Leon County, Texas, some over the line in Robertson as well
    • targets are:
      • Multiple sands in the Bossier:
        • deep and therefore pricey to drill:
          • $8.5 mm drilled and completed for upper and middle Bossier tests, EURs ranging from 4 to 7 Bcfe, so a decent return at $5+ natural gas (see hedges below),
          • $12 mm for the really deep lower Bossier wells, EUR expectations of 12 to 15 Bcfe.
        • prolific production with IPs averaging 20 MMcfepd and ranging as high as 41 MMcfepd but has exploration risk,
        • 130 potential locations
        • Streater #1 Well -  frac date of September 14, sets up 30 to 40 new locations if it works
        • 100% success in the Deep Bossier after shooting 3D
        • Almost all wells have shallower zones that have been recompleted for 18 to 20 MM/d IPs --
        • Drilling going slow, waiting on higher gas prices
        • Economics are giving a 50% IRR at $5.50 gas
      • Eagle Ford Shale
        • Nearby wells are in the 100,000 to 500,000+ EUR range
        • First well should spud later this week; expect results late October/ early November
        • 125 potential locations on their existing acreage if the well works.
      • Glen Rose (Oil) Play
        • One well drilled - evaluating, results not released
        • Second well permitted and set to spud either October or December 2010
        • To be economic they need an IP of about 100 bopd and 100,000 BOE in reserves to be economic and they are encouraged by the results to date in both the first well and in another well that went through the Glen Rose on it's way to the Deep Bossier.
  • Appalachia - Marcellus (Pennsylvania and West Virgia)
    • 34,600 net acres
    • Drilled 1 vertical; test 1.5 MMcfgpd and 120 Bcpd gross (respectable)
    • 1st Horizontal well permitted for Marshall County, PA
    • They think they have 4 Bcf per well on 80 acre spacing but it's still early for them here.
    • As of 2Q10, production was 400 Mcfepd or less than 3% of total from 13 vertical wells,
    • This area garners about 55% of 2010's remaining budget
  • Powder River Basin - Coalbed Methane
    • 21,900 net acres
    • very low rate of spend here.
    • I'd like to see them punt this as well.


  • 49 Bcfe proved reserves ... tiny
  • Engineered by Netherland Sewell which means they are likely to be on the conservative side and solid which is a plus.
  • At $3.56 / Mcfe on a TEV to Proved Reserves basis they are not exactly cheap.
  • Potential reserves of almost 2 Tcfe in their two core assets starts to make them look more interesting


  • 2Q10 of 15.8 MMcfepd, 99% natural gas, and 86% of that coming from East Texas.
  • Of late, production growth has been less than steady due to delays but 2Q should represent the near term production nadir.

Production Profile Is Not Pretty But Should Be Poised For Recovery


Balance Sheet: Clean, paid down debt last year via a monetization of their Australian assets. $8 mm drawn now, borrowing base is $40 mm and they are in the middle of a re-determination that they think they will  result in an expansion to $50mm plus. They plan on keeping leverage low.


  • 2010 - 70% - hedges with floors at $6 with a knock out put at $4 giving them a market plus $2 price below $4
  • 2011 - 50% hedged same structure.

Potential Catalysts:

  1. Streater #1 well - upper and middle Bossier test, -results should be out any day now through the end of September and the well can add significantly to current production levels.
  2. Belin #2 - another east Texas well, this time targeting the lower Bossier, these are the really big target wells in the Bossier sands, results in November.
  3. Wildman 6H horizontal Glen Rose (oil) test, results timing uncertain but they are going to drill a second well.
  4. Their first Eagle Ford Shale test -  before year end.
  5. Marcellus position: JV to accelerate development or outright sale.

Back of the Envelope NAV:  Nope, not going to do it. Too whacky looking for me to put in print.

  • East Texas Bossier Only:  on a higher risking than they give their acreage, I still get to an extremely high number here, too high to put in print.
  • Marcellus: On acreage value alone probably $2 to $4 ($3K to $6K per acre)
  • East Texas Eagle Ford - If it works, risked numbers would add several dollars per share.
  • East Texas Glen Rose - ???, hard to say for now, when they show theirs, I'll show mine.

Nutshell: Getting to re-know the name. Some have questioned management's ability to wring value from their acreage in the Marcellus given their track record of 2 steps forward and 1. 75 steps back in East Texas and given the complexities of dealing with a second play I have to think a reallocation of capital instead of a second core area would be a better choice for them. In other words punt the Marcellus which will take a long time to get to know and prove up and instead drill in your back yard, going after the Glen Rose and Eagle Ford (getting you some oil exposure) all the while pursuing your bread and butter Deep Bossier plays. I don't own any at the moment but think the stock itself is very much like a call option with no expiration, given it's relatively strong balance and discounted asset valuation, and may add a trading position to the ZLT in the near future.

Other Stuff:

GMXR Cuts Spending Guidance But Keeps Volumes Outlook Intact

  • Spending Cut: Both 2011 and 2012 cut from $200 mm per year to $175 mm per year.
  • Volume Guidance - Unchanged at:
    • 2010: 17.5 to 19.0 Bcfe, or up 34% on the mid
    • 2011:  28 to 30 Bcfe, or up 59% on the mid
    • 2012: 32 to 34 Bcfe, or up 14% mid to mid
  • Operations Update - 2 new Haynesville Completions - decent 30 and 60 day rates.
  • Short Interest: 25%, one of the highest in the group.
  • Nutshell: Management is reacting, as they previously stated they would to persistently low natural gas prices. Good. Expect others like SWN to follow. For GMXR to cut capex without dropping volume guidance speaks to some recent better than expected Haynesville Shale well completions and the expectation of more to follow as they hone their completion methodology. H0wever, I don't completely buy the redux in spending without a cut in production and will be looking at a short term trade and then out, and then with a follow on, wait and see if they deliver approach. They are doing what the Street wants by cutting spending which is a good portion of the battle. Doing it while maintaining the previously outlined growth, with tight frac conditions, will be more of a trick.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • EXXI - cut to Neutral on valuation at Pritchard.
  • CLR - initiated at Neutral at Ticonderoga.
  • EXXI - target upped $2 to $24 at Rodman Renshaw, rating stays Outperform.
  • SUN - cut to Sell at Argus.

105 Responses to “Thursday – Dualing Natural Gas and Oil Inventory Reports + GST”

  1. 1
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — most EXCELLENT run-down on little GST.  You captured it, just right.  Funny, you wouldn't put an NAV on the little booger…. and I know why too.  (Look at NAV, look at stock price… look back at NAV, look at stock price again.  Blink twice… have another cup of coffee.)
    But thank you for capturing the flavor there.  You pegged GST just right.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Thanks much BOP. That's kind of a foundation piece for my knowledge base, you and Reef and others feel free to make additions and corrections or new thought angles as you see fit. I am watching it. Agreed re NAV, blink blink blink. I can get more than the stock price on the Marcellus acreage alone and if you risk the heck out of their potential reserves in east Texas you still get a much bigger number. Management a bit of a question mark in terms of getting it there. But certainly worth more than this. 

  3. 3
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Most interesting that R&R upped EXXI PT.  R&R was the first shop to slam EXXI on the Macondo uncertainty (and they were right, i'm sorry to say).   I don't get Prichard's downgrade to "hold"… but it is purely price-target-based, as the stock has run and Pritchard hasn't changed their PT.  Whatever.  Must be catering to the hedge funds, who look about 2 weeks out, at most.  If stock drops back, i'll be there to buy more.
    Pritchard's description of EXXI sums up my investment thesis nicely… consistant cash flow generator + highest oil to gas mix of any GoM company + potential for Ultra-Deep (not priced in yet).  I can wait for this to play out… clearly, Pritchard can not.

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TED at +15.8 bps
    And looks to be Another Day It Sucks To Be Short ATPG.  🙂

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Front and Center Watch:

    MCD – because Doug Kass said he is shorting it on "disappointing" sales numbers pre market, lol.

    WLL – because today could be the day they finally take out that quad top … will take a friendly set of EIA numbers at noon EST to make it happen and/or keep it there.

    WLT – bouncing back from last week's production guidance reduction, interesting chart but much more interesting fundamental issues at play here (we're selling all we can get out of the ground, even at these prices (> 225/ton))

    NOG/OAS/BEXP/KOG – potential news out of these in the short term, best guess is next week at Rodmen Renshaw or Barclays, especially the BEXP.

    ATPG – watching it run without me, looking for a pullback to enter, should get the next Telemark well mid Sept, but more of a run into the end of the moratorium than anything else for a trade.

    MMR – mulling an entry in the ZCAT.



  6. 6
    skimo Says:

    GST- why is daily volume so low compared to o/s shares? Even though they have a very small % short, they have a 10 days to cover on it. Another question that comes to mind is if your back of the envelope is so high you don't even want it in print, why wouldn't somebody bigger come up with a similar calc and want to take em out?

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    No idea on the daily volume issue.

    Re takeout, not sure, It would be easy to buy them for cash and part them out.

  8. 8
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    skimo — good questions all.  Perhaps we can get Reef to chime in with some insight here.  Reef, you around??

  9. 9
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — have you thought about taking some Oct calls on ATPG?  The in-the-money calls aren't too premium-heavy…. just wondering.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Front and Center Watch 2

    GMXR – to gauge market reaction to last night's news.  Stock has been a death march to Bataan.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    BOP – yes, kick, kick, kick, I have. Just got distracted and it walked, waiting on a big bad red day for those.

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — one thing is holding true in this mrkt… no need to chase anything.  Agreed on the Red Day comment.

  13. 13
    1520sbroad Says:

    Pour les Canadiens – PWE – PennWest on the tape this morning with their conversion to corporation plans.  Some good wells in the Cardium, ups CAPEX slightly, dividend goes to 9 cents a month from 15.  they are holding an analyst day on Oct 20.  I am sure today will be ugly but at least some of this has been cooked into the stock for a while.  I am sure every analyst wil have to rework his/her model.  In my opinion PWE should be looked at like an E&P that pays a nice "while you wait" dividend.

  14. 14
    jat Says:

    So, Z, you don't think the utilization number is correct?  I know it's maintenance, but the cracks have headed up the past two weeks.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Jat – a full % point would be out of the norm at the moment, feels like a solve for their crude stocks math. Could be correct but I suspect its just math. Honestly I don't know if API calls all the refiners and asks them where they are at or just uses a model and sample. They used to be more accurate but I heard the new director there has cut back on research staff in favor of employees with ties in Congress.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    WLL – Ticonderoga initiates at Neutral, says nice oil play but fairly valued. Sounds like a group who missed the recent run and will be looking to upgrade on an oil/group pullback.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    OAS also threatening to take out its all time highs in a recent (6 day) downtrend busting move.

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    The real reason Salazar is being a World Class Jerk is 1) because he can (it's not an elected position), 2) he is a power-hungry jerk ("boot on neck" gave that personality characteristic away), 3) money…. lots and lots of money.  $100 million more for just next year.  From Madison Wms morning note…
    Offshore Regulations – yesterday, the Dept. of Interior shed light on plans from the BOEM for new rules & regulations for offshore oil & gas companies, including a requirement for them to submit detailed plans of how they would respond to a blowout or a major oil spill. The agency also recommended tougher penalties for offshore operators who violate safety protocol. Salazar said he is asking Congress for $100mn in additional funds in FY11 for new staff, resources, and equipment to strengthen government oversight. He emphasized that the level of offshore oil & gas activity in the GOM has more than doubled since the early 1980s, but that the resources available to regulators have actually declined. Finally, Salazar said receipt of the BOEM’s recommendations will not speed up his deliberations about when to end the moratorium. (Oil Daily)

  19. 19
    milepost_43 Says:

    saw this yesterday…..guess it will soak up some CAN NG
    VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwire – 09/08/10) – Methanex Corporation (TSX:MXNews)(NASDAQ:MEOHNews)(SANTIAGO:MethanexNews) announced today that it plans to restart its 470,000 tonne per year methanol plant in Medicine Hat, Alberta, Canada in April 2011. In support of the restart, Methanex has commenced a program to purchase natural gas on the Alberta gas market. The plant consumes approximately 50,000 mmbtu of natural gas per day operating at capacity. The plant has been idle since 2001 and the estimated capital cost to restart the plant is approximately US$40 million.
    ps:  Much appreciate all the "experts" here…….makes me feel like I need some "E&P analysis viagra"!!….

  20. 20
    reefguy Says:

    GST- 13% of shares owned by CHK….which they have owned since before 2007

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Reef – didn't CHK try to add more shares and for some reason could not?

  22. 22
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dear Mr. Salazar, 
    Keep this old proverb in mind… Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad.
    I think your power-hungry and frivolous moves are driving you mad.  It will be an interesting outcome.  No doubt.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    JB – when you get a chance can you look at EOG again? Thx.

  24. 24
    reefguy Says:

    CHK/GST– do not think so.  CHK would exit the shares if given the chance

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Reef – thanks, was thinking about something in 2008 but hear you.

    Gas numbers in 20 minutes.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    SSN = a second day of digestion, flipping.

    HAL – liking how it is continuing to move more with the market and it's prospect than with BP's comments that "it's everyone's fault"

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Reef – this is what I was thinking of, old history, not applicable now.


  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Yield names, both oily and gassy working well today. $AMZ up 0.6%, LINE outpacing for the balanced names, SJT for the gassy names. WHX doing not so much but should move sideways as oil does.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Oil numbers come out at 11 am EST due to Labor day.

    NG will be at the normal time in 10 minutes.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    58 Bcf.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Storage was in line with Consensus and high to me.

    Storage now 6.4% below last year and 5.5% above the 5 year average with both trending in the right direction for bulls.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Survey says, market could care less about today's storage number, NG unchanged.

    So much for the Pritchard downgrade of EXXI.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Getting sent more notes with positive feedback from analyst visits with HAL regarding the coming Q results.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Oil numbers in 3 minutes

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    EIA Oil Inventory Report

    Crude just before the report, up $1 at 75.63


    Oil: down 1.9 mm barrels

    Gasoline: down 0.2 mm barrels

    Distillates: down 0.4 mm barrels


  36. 36
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    Imports were off massively, down 794,000 bopd and below 9 mm bopd


    Gasoline – 9263 m bpd, down 123K from last week, OK, not great

    Distillate – 3932 m bpd, flat with last week, so strong for a second week in a row


    Cushing stocks –  eased by 300,000 to 35.5 mm bpd, backing away from danger and a positive sign. As per post, directionally in line with API last night.

    All in all, modestly bullish, crude bouncing a bit here.

  37. 37
    jat Says:

    utilization weird, jat confused

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Inventory all clear sounded … energy names should now feel free to get up and move about the cabin.

  39. 39
    elduque Says:

    z- why do you think you are missing the Natural Gas no. Not complaining, just curious.

  40. 40
    bill Says:

    robry had today at +57, next week +87

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Eld – I think it is a combination of industrial demand being a bit softer than I am looking for and rounding error. It is after all a survey and the trend is more important than the week to week numbers. The trend has been that the injections have either skirted the bottom end of the range for this time of year or have been record lows to the range, which even with the heat, is fairly impressive when you consider we are at decade plus highs on natural gas production. 

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Jat – yeah, that's odd, one last pop I guess and API got that right too.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    re 40. Yeah, hotter weather but holiday.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    We look like 3.725 Tcf at peak, +/- 50 Bcf, to me.   Should put gas around $4 to $4.50 average through the winter months (with spikes over $5 for prolonged cold) assuming we see more supply data like last month's report.

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Happy New Year, to all our Jewish Friends!
    Just a reminder… It's Rosh Hashana today and tomorrow.  So, market is even quieter than it would be, for a short, holiday week.

  46. 46
    Pati Says:

    JB, could you put your link up?  Lost it in my Bookmarks.

  47. 47
    choices Says:

    WLT is one volatile bad boy-opened up over 77 this AM and is now off 1.5%, having moved down as low as 73.35, now trading @74-someone in China must have coughed.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Pati – it's at upper left on this site under JB's charts

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    MCF quietly drifting higher these days.

  50. 50
    nifkin Says:

    any thoughts on RIG strength other than FTSE rebalance next week?

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    re 50 – nothing that I see other than all of the BP group responded to the BP summation of the events as Macondo with a collectively "B.S." and the market has seemed to agree with them. There may be a broker or two out there pushing the case for their limited liability on the issue but I have not seen anything specific today. 

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    TS Igor's track looks to be north central Atlantic, nothing but a fish storm.

    Gaston still trying to get it back together. Bastardi saying to keep a close eye on that one.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    SD bouncing, bottom fishers rejoicing.

  54. 54
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — if you could only buy today and hold 3 energy stocks for the next two years (no trading)… quick, off the top of your head, what would they be?

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Hearing Morgan Stanley revised GDP higher today for 2H10.  They cut their forecast for it on August 29th.  

  56. 56
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 50 Prior to today RIG was the cheapest in the group relative to BV. Have not seen anything today to add to your comments other than GO Bacteria in the GOM. Make like mini Pack Men.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Re 54. Aside from the dark cellar you would have to lock me in to force that situation into being, I'd say:

    WLL because contrary to the press of today's analyst crowd they are not expensive, have a good track record of execution and will be likely to continue to in an elevate oil market.  I'm only going to take 1 Bakken if I have to play by your rules.

    LINE – well hedged for oil and natural gas through 2014, growing through careful acquisition as well as organically (unlike most of their peers) and I like to get paid to wait especially if I'm not allowed to come out and play

    HK  – Because they are cheap for them and leverage to some gas plays and I think it two years gas will be higher and they will be a snack for someone much bigger. Not exactly an intuitive pick but there you have it.


    These are not necessarily where I see the highest potential return but offer what I'd call a good balance of risk vs reward since you have banned me from trading for the period.

  58. 58
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — thank you.  I really should take a look at LINE.  You have done a great job there, and have a loyal following.  And we intersect on HK.  Interesting.  Thanks again.

  59. 59
    bill Says:


  60. 60
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    LINE — might prove to be an exception to my rule of never buying a company run by a lawyer.
    By the way, you see the memo from the employee at ABC, bemoaning how Westin's lawyer background is what crashed their once great news franchise?  No idea if it's true, of not, of course.  But it supports my own personal view of how the universe works, so it was interesting.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    BOP – I think they are Savvy, IR guy is smart, Clay Jeansonne, used to be at Burlington when I knew, then I think Pogo, now LINE, he can answer all your questions.

  62. 62
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader pointing out that there is another fire on an ME platform.  Says it looks like every little thing has to get reported by the Coast Guard now.

  63. 63
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    make that "small fire on an unmanned platform in Gulf"….  sheesh.

  64. 64
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    All this "allows" Bromwich and Salazar to DEMAND more money, more power, more personel… despite the fact that we have thousands and thousands of wells offshore with a better safety record than automobile drivers.

  65. 65
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Do you know that there is an FDA allowable level of WORMS in tomatoes used to make ketchup?  Yep.  Can't make ketchup without incurring a few uglies.  That's just the way that things work. 

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Thanks for spotting that fire in the Gulf, hadn't seen it yet. Unmanned, non producing platform, fire is out.

  67. 67
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Thank HeadTrader.  He has eyes like Argus.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Re 59, thanks, but couldn't get it to work.

  69. 69
    dij Says:

    More Peak Oil:
    “In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse,”


  70. 70
    jat Says:

    re 47, there are some headlines saying that the chinese nat. bureau of statistics moved up their data release to 9/11, and that's creating speculation that they'll raise rates. it's on bloom.

  71. 71
    andy Says:

    z – re 59   it required a lot of patience – but did work

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    Andy – thanks, will try again.

    WLL failed to break on through to the other side. Perhaps too many people eying that chart and not that valuation.

  73. 73
    choices Says:

    #70-thanks, jat

  74. 74
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader said mrkt sold off with DB sock rumors.  But he thinks it closes higher than here… goes higher Friday.   Then sells off Monday. 
    Barring fundamental news, of course.

  75. 75
    Popeye Says:

    KOG is the only thing working for me today.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    BOP – was thinking there could be some trepidation over 9/11 tomorrow. DB said to be doing an offering?

  77. 77
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    DB said to be "weighing share sale," yes.

  78. 78
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #23 EOG…trying to hold the 100 period SMA on the 30 min now, looking at the intraday chart, thinking the 3 point bottom at $88.50 might be the line of defense…the rejection of the 20 period SMA on the daily was technically bearish, but it's such a light day, and this stock can be up $2  tomorrow if the mkt rallies..  
    #46 Pati, I'm glad you find the charts helpful, thanks….

  79. 79
    choices Says:

    slow day post-Citibank boyz were up to their eyeballs in the hidden losses, including Robert Rubin-saw interview with Meredith Whitney over weekend-seemed very impressive-good Citibank call.

  80. 80
    Pati Says:

    78 – Thank YOU, JB.

  81. 81
    tomdavis12 Says:

    JB voted

  82. 82
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #81, tom, thank you…

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Thanks much JB.

    Had a good lunch with the local E&P research team. Seeding ideas for coverage before they have too many of their own, lol.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Interesting snapshot of unemployment today and historically.


    Market looks out to lunch.

  85. 85
    1520sbroad Says:

    #79 – citigroup liquidity puts = citigroup death star = $45billion bail out

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    EPA asks 9 oil service companies to voluntarily give them information on frac fluids saying it is necessary to complete their study on frac fluids vs drinking water. Alternatively, they could just go to the RRC like everyone with google on their computer.

  87. 87
    crysball Says:

    Bottom fishing SSN with  some success  to build out   reestablished SSN position.
    Thanks Z for  your perceptive analysis of  SSN both  pre and post   the Niobarra  payout.
    Am a littlte  surprised  neither  EOG or NBL   have  NOT  made any  disclosures as  would think  the closing  event   and the amount of cash  involved would  meet the material event  definition?????????

  88. 88
    elduque Says:

    First time in a long time, that sellers have been unable to push Nat. Gas down and keep it down. Just maybe we have the bottom in. I was going to say that I wouldn't bet on it. However, if you saw my postitions, I guess you say that I already have.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Crysball – You're more than welcome, glad it worked for you. Re disclosure. Yes, was thinking about that earlier and I don't have a good answer for it. Maybe they can wait on the 2nd closing. I would assume the buyer would want to wait as long as possible if they are working other deals in and around this spot. I will run the question by Terry at SSN if they don't disclose it on the 20th.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    Eld – had some interesting comments on NG from an XTO guy at lunch. It was my sense that he's of a mind with me on gas prices. That we just need to see the data roll over before you get a real move in prices and that it will be a grudging and gradual move off the lows. He sees the best opportunities in the gas names and he was at Enercom last week so he has the benefit of more breakout room chats than I have been able to hear about so far.  He was struck by the number of companies talking about the collapse of NGL pricing from the surge in "liquids rich" wells being drilled. I heard it in the 2Q calls and in some presentations but he really thought it was a fragile market. Some of that weakness will lead to slower drilling in the liquids rich plays but still, you are going to be seeing gas volumes from those plays that are produced, regardless of natural gas prices, unless oil volumes fall as well.

  91. 91
    redjack Says:

    Z…re 86 ..could you post the link to that news item..

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    re 91


  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty. Trading has been slow I didn't realize the market had been closed a full five minutes. Yikes. Tomorrow will be slower again almost assuredly.

  94. 94
    elijahwc Says:

    Madison Williams starts a lot of the names here
    Neutral: BEXP UPL

  95. 95
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    elijah — thank you!  Madison Wms has great connections to key people at the top of their companies… when they talk, I listen.

  96. 96
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (actually, Madison Wms was the first to point out ATPG as a good short-term buy to me… they are clever folks)

  97. 97
    bill Says:

    BEXP with an update…are those good numbers

  98. 98
    petra Says:

    He has not seen them yet, will check

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    Re BEXP

    The Ross well is the 2nd high completion they've had out of the area, the other 3 rough rider wells are now pretty run of the mill, actually slightly below the average for their long laterals to date. That's not a knock, as 2,200 boep IP wells is simply not a bad thing.

    more details in the post tomorrow.

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    Bill – there's also mention of the first TFS at Rough Rider having been completed with good looking cores and shows during drilling. No frac until 2nd half of 4Q. The downspacing program is also well underway in the first pilot area. All in all, a positive press release. I would not expect it to goose the name majorly tomorrow but it is positive. I continue to own it in the ZLT.

  101. 101
    milepost_43 Says:

    Keystone XL looking for Bakken crude
    BILLINGS, Mont. — TransCanada Corp. and Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer have scheduled an official announcement Monday on the company's 1,980-mile Keystone XL pipeline. The company said Friday it will hold a so-called open season to offer pipeline access to oil producers in Montana and North Dakota.
    Calgary-based TransCanada had faced political pressure to let U.S. oil companies tap into the project.
    The company's primary aim is to carry oil sands crude from Canada to Gulf Coast refineries – following a route through several major oil fields along the Montana-North Dakota border.
    Industry representatives say interest in developing Montana and North Dakota oil has been hampered in part by a lack of pipelines.

  102. 102
    Mercedes Benz C300 Trunk N Says:

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  103. 103
    Used-Car-Dealerships Says:


    blog topic

  104. 104
    attorney average salary Says:

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  105. 105
    nj criminal defense lawyer Says:

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