Tuesday Morning – Back To Reality

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Market Sentiment Watch: Hope you had a great long weekend, I did although it was, as usual, labor intensive.  Speaking of labor, the president unveiled a $50 billion planes, trains, and automobiles plan on Monday in an effort to get more out-of-work service industry types behind the wheels of cement mixers and asphalt rollers. Obama went on to say the $50 B for roads, runways and railways will be completely paid for by .... working with Congress to make sure that it is fully deficit neutral. Uh huh. This is stage 1 of a more comprehensive plan to be announced Wednesday and which will include an "infrastructure bank". Uh huh #2.  I don't see it happening before (or after) the election, at least not in a deficit neutral manner. By the way, the only method of paying for this I've seen out of the Administration yet is to "close tax breaks for the E&P companies". In a separate report, 2010 is likely to be the first year in the last 6 that the wind energy industry will show negative growth. Gotta give the team in D.C. a big fat F on the "getting the U.S. off foreign oil" front. But there's more. Also on Wednesday, Obama  will unveil plans to allow businesses to write down 100% of new plant and equipment investments through 2011, with the Administration saying this will effectively reduce taxes on businesses by $200 B over 2 years. The market will likely bid infrastructure plays higher this week as it salivates over a bigger and easily identifiable pool of fresh stimulus dollars but the broad market futures this morning are steadily drifting lower on lack of more eco data in the U.S. and more weak news out of Europe (PIGS).

BP Spill Watch:

  • Coast Guard says "Macondo is secure and no longer a threat" - positive for the name.
  • A new BOP will be attached to the well shortly and drilling of the relief well to be used in the bottom kill procedure will probably resume next week.
  • BP reportedly to accelerate asset sales; now said to be looking for $40 B including $20 B for its stake in Prudhoe Bay - another modest positive for the name
  • Probably going to see increased takeout speculation here again.

The Week Ahead: Light week on the eco-data front

  • Tuesday 9/7: No data release scheduled 
  • Wednesday 9/8:  Beige Book at 2pm EST, Consumer Credit at 3pm EST, Jefferies Global Shipping Conference
  • Thursday 9/9: EIA Natural Storage Report, EIA Oil Inventory Report at 1 pm EST, jobless claims (F = 470,000), trade balance (F = -$47 B)
  • Friday 9/10: Wholesale Inventories 

In Today's Post:

  • Holdings Watch
  • Commodity  Watch
  • Stuff We Care About Today
  • Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,200
  • 100% Cash

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $7,000
  • 9% Cash

Commodity  Watch:

Crude oil ended last week down 1%, closing at $74.60. The 12 month crude strip is now trading at $79.08.  This morning crude is trading lower with equity futures but also with word China is going on a short term energy diet.

Natural gas bounced 8% last week to close at $3.94 ending a string of four bad weeksThe 12 month strip is now trading at $4.48. This morning gas is trading off a dime.

  • Tropics Watch: Three cloud piles are moving across the Atlantic with currently low percent chances of development in the next 2 days.
  • LNG Watch: Japan reported LNG imports rose 9.5% in 1H10.  Japan's July LNG price: $11.60/MMBtu. Wonder what happened to all the prognostications of an LNG tsunami hitting U.S. shores.
  • Weather Watch:

    • Week before last: Cooling Degree Days of 64 which yielded an injection of 54 Bcf in last Thursday's report.
    • Last Week: CDDs crept back up to a balmy 72, vs 52 normal and 45 in the comparable week in 2009. Look for a move back below 50 for injections.
    • This Week's Forecast: 48 CDDs. Look for temps to rebound next week.

Stuff We Care About Today


  • Today is scheduled to be the day we see the Niobrara acreage sale completed - waiting on news.

Rumor Watch:

  • Reliance may buy a U.S. shale player. Reuters story here talks about the Indian firm, having done three asset shales deals this year already, now being on the hunt for a whole company acquisition, and highlights KWK, and EOG as possible targets. Rumor flow on the Reliance deals this year has been surprisingly accurate.

Other Stuff:

  • I'll have mini reports on GST and NBL this week, no ownership by me in either yet.
  • CRED reported today, no call, but interesting, will be taking a look today.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • BP - Benchmark ups target from $41 to $46, rating stays Buy
  • PXD - FBR ups target from $60 to $85! Ups to Outperform
  • Goldman calls HAL, SLB, NBR Best Ideas in service, avoids upping deep water drillers, also says WFT and BHI to "struggle".
  • OXY - Susquehanna starts at Positive, target $98

116 Responses to “Tuesday Morning – Back To Reality”

  1. 1
    elduque Says:

    BDI up a little

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    WLL on the tape with an acreage acquisition in the east Montana portion of the Williston.

    90174 net acres, no price given, may abut the Lewis & Clark acreage.

    In my book it's validation of BEXP and EOG efforts, among others in this newer area.

  3. 3
    john11 Says:

    LINE news out re Permian acquisition  and two more Granite Wash wells.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Crude down $1, NG down $0.14 as hype over a disturbance in the Gomex fades.

    S&P Fut called down 6.80 DJIA down 54 with 10 minutes until the open. Market drifted up for lack of anything better to do on Friday, drifting down on lack of support, Europe etc today. No real eco data until Thursday.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Thanks John, had not spied it yet, back shortly.

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Good morning! Back from The Wilds… looks like the PiiGS aren’t flying this morning. Concerns about Europe and Banks.

    As HeadTrader says: “zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz”

  7. 7
    zman Says:


    Nice results in terms of IPs (37.2 and 26.2) from wells 3 and 4 (on Catalyst List). High liquids cuts.

    Acquisition – $352 mm – Permian Basin, Wolfberry, oily, not enough data to compute a $/BOE as they lumped reserves here in with prior Permina acquisitions but you can bet they didn’t overpay for it.

  8. 8
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Jerome — thank you so much for your assist on ATPG. Will start this short week by voting.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Morning BOP – how’s the TED hanging? Can we still talk TED or is it so far away from the worry zone now it’s not worth speaking about?

    SSN bidding up, most else pretty red.

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TED = snoozer. Corrected a bit off his lows (sub-15 bps) at the end of August. Now treading water at 16.2 bps. Anything below 20 bps is is just Snoozer-Ville.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Knee jerk drops in EOG and WLL over oil prices/market. Over-reaction in my book, and oil is now bouncing off the bottom.

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    SSN — missed that Train. And for no good reason other than laziness. Just never got AroundToIt. By bad. Your Good (and You’re Good!).

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP. Good entry by the way on ATPG last week.

  14. 14
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ATPG — now that Labor Day is done and gone, think the geniuses at GE Capital will get back to work and finish up on the ATPG Titan Platform monetization. Then it’s “Tie Me Kangaroo Down, Sport” for the stock. Me thinks, anyway.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Re SSN – could be a BTRSTN event at this point ($1.43), especially if the deal is at the low end of the original price range as the current price is a hair above my low end NAV.

  16. 16
    crysball Says:

    Spread on Brent crude to NYMEX crude is currently over $3/barrel.

    EGY liftings (Gabon) are priced to Brent……and are as regular as rain (during monsoon).

    Hearing lot’s of interest in the AngolaBlock 5 data room EGY has opened in Houston.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Seeing a number of press comments saying the Obama stimulus effort (#3 or #4 I can’t tell) will be DOA. I have to agree given the choice of funding and the fact that a number of Democrat held states are also big time hydrocarbon producers who won’t like seeing their “big oil tax cuts” get axed.

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    crys — thanks for the EGY update. I wrote off the Angolan escrow funds as a donut hole. If EGY can pull off an acceptable partner, that is pure upside. Any thoughts on when they could site a well with Total on the onshore concession? Or, aiming for 2011 for that. Since they aren’t shooting new seismic, I would think they could site a well (or two) any day now….

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ATPG — holding green on a red open. That has GOT to be Highly Irritating to the Shorts.

    heh, heh, heh….

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    BOP – Your and Reef’s GST took a pop on Friday.

    West also pointed out REXX is on the move. Interesting to see so many of the middle and lower tier names getting a little traction after a long summer of being ignored.

  21. 21
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GST — Reef did all the heavy lifting there… actually did the geologic work in the area. It will be interesting to see if good acreage trumps weak mngmt. Case Study in play here.

  22. 22
    RMD Says:

    CRED have not read release yet, but talked to co. after announcing last buyback and thought stock valuation had already marked production and acres to market, ie, Bakken acres at $5,000/ was already priced in. But I’m all ears…

  23. 23
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GST — Palo Alto out compeletely. Wow. They have been in the stock for ever and ever. Takes the selling pressure off… but hardly a Ringing Endorsement of the Management Team there.

  24. 24
    andy Says:

    crys – for the benefit of us that are not in the business, could u pls explain what a “data room” is and what they accomplish by opening one. i am long EGY

  25. 25
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #20 — the Friday “pop” was just the absence of Palo Alto selling. Would think stock migrates back up to around $4.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    RMD – thanks, not wild about the low profile they take with pr’s, rinky dink website, and lack of a call on results but sometimes those are the good ones, eh?

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    BOP – graphs sent to your other email. Thanks.

  28. 28
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OK… have new song in head… from a different decade…

    ATPG — “Burn, baby, burn… Disco Inferno (burn this Mother down)”. heh, heh, heh.

  29. 29
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Sorry. Everytime i do the Happy Dance, it turns out poorly.

    Just trying to get the blood flowing, on a do-nothing morning.

  30. 30
    ram Says:

    BOP – Have you heard anything new in CIGX’s test launch?

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    BOP – I can’t blame you at all for that. I resorted to cleaning my office on Friday just to stay awake. Market is in the process of taking back Friday’s drift up.

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    andy — data rooms are just that. A room that is set up with boxes of data and displays. Companies set them up to find partners, sell acreage, whatever. It allows a potential partner to come in and kick the tires. EGY has set up a data room in search of a partner for their shallow water Angola Block 5. They put all their maps and seismic and well data in a room. Then schedule prospective investors to come spend time, looking through anything they want behind a closed door, without the company looking over their shoulder.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    WLT weak on China news about curbing steel production to meet energy consumption reduction targets.

  34. 34
    crysball Says:

    Don’t expect any Total/EGY On-shore (Mutamba) drilling until 2011 due to Time required to permit & build roads in pure tropical swamp/jungle.

    A data room is a tech library of all the petrophysical, seismic, geologic, geochemistry, etc. vaalco has collected about block 5 in Angola so prospective partners can assess the size and possible outcome of acquiring a 40 percent PSA

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Anyone see an energy conference out there this week? I could swear there was a second tier firm holding one but I can’t seem to locate it.

  36. 36
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — other than feeling like a total jackass in thinking the stock would move up on the launch. Nothing new. That is why the stock did NOT move up, I know now (in hindsite). CIGX mngmt has always said they would let the test market run for at least 90 days before concluding anything. In addition to “acceptance rate” they need to know the “reorder rate.” THAT is the key metric. Not how many people try it, but how many people reorder it. For results to make any sense, you just have to sit and wait. Like fishing. Could come up with a minnow. Could hook into a whale. But have to wait to see.

    Mngmt sounds “upbeat” and positive. But they are very very careful not to spill any beans. inVentiv has been making a few happy squeeks tho… but everyone involved is trying to keep a lid on what is happening during this Test Phase. And they are doing a commendable job at that.

    I still own ever share I ever bought.

  37. 37
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #34 — much more concise (and correct) explanation. I might need more coffee….

  38. 38
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader has just pronounced today “not tradeable.” He thinks we drift. Just in no discernable direction….

  39. 39
    ram Says:

    Thanks. I still own every share. Just the testimonials here seem to point to a positive for the stock. I hope there is not a greed factor in the profit margin. It seems to be more benificial to have a price point where your potential customers could be the full spectrum.

  40. 40
    andy Says:

    bop – i thot both explanations very similar and helpful. re CIGX i bot 3 cartons to pass out to my customers and employees who i think are serious about quitting. so far have 6 in my “sample base”. they are starting today. am very curious what results are, and will keep u informed.

    redjack – any results from your family?

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    BOP – asking him if it has anything to do with the fact that the most recent idea out of Washington is still the Civil Conservation Corp?

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    By the way BOP, I agree, a drifter of day but I think we close better than the current down 11 on the S&P. Just a feeling. Will see if I can find Nicky for a comment.

  43. 43
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    andy — way cool. Hearing it “works” on about 2/3rds of the smokers who really want to quit. That is a nice sample pool. Will be tres interesting to hear any results!!

    ram — i think the price point is a bit high… they thought they could price it like a pack of cigarettes… but i don’t think that is correct. Having a very professional marketer/distributor adds to the cost. But, clearly, the margin is huge. And the market for “stop smoking aids” is enormous…

  44. 44
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    nah — he’s just eyeing the headlines for Europe and banking… and the credit indices are down. So, not seeing much incentive to buy.

    that said, he doesn’t see incentive to sell either.

    So, back-and-fill a bit today, i would think.

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #41 Both the WSJ and Thomas Sowell had thoughtful macro pieces out today… on why Obama’s policies have not worked. They aren’t Mean Essays. Just simply state fact.

    If the problem is too much debt, you have to let it unwind. Taking on MORE debt (and bashing Chrysler bondholders over the head for “greed”) is just not the way to drive outta the ditch.

  46. 46
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — you ever take any part in little minnow, EGY?

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    BOP – no, not yet, still looking there and GST and REXX and VQ and elsewhere in small cap ville, maybe soon as I went back to overweight on SSN in the 1.11 to teens area after the initial sale at 1.30. So I may raise some cash there soon that will need a home. It won’t be in a Bakken home as I have enough exposure there at the moment.

  48. 48
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI = 4FQ earnings out after close. Not sure what people “expect” as far as EPS. But I’ll take anything above $75mm in EBITDAX.

  49. 49
    ratberto Says:

    #41,45 I’m still thinking that Richard Fisher’s recent speech in San Antonio pretty well sums it up: business will sit on the sidelines until the craziness abates. Every time the WH comes out with another gimmick like a new CCC/WPA, it just means to us that they don’t get it and that the craziness will continue… until they are voted out of office.

    “Until business operators are provided the clarity they need, they will continue to hoard their cash, limit their payrolls and constrain investment in new plant and equipment—none of which provides hope for the unemployed or will put us on a more forceful path to recovery.”


  50. 50
    zman Says:

    BOP – good point, was just noticing it bobbing green. I think the last mention of capacity there (from Enercom) was 26,000 boepd, will be interesting to see if Shiller gives an update on when that heads higher, and if he is mulling any offshore additions at this time.

  51. 51
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Slow day… cute slideshow. Top 10 Dumbest and Smartest Dog Breeds.


  52. 52
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all. Seeing what I believe is a wave iv correction this morning. 23% would come in at around 1090. 1081 would be 38% retrace.
    Cycles point to a low early in the week either today or early tomorrow and then up into 11 – 13th September.

  53. 53
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    thanks. was hoping E21 “capacity” was getting back closer to 29k boed. But this is just back ground noise (but solid cash flow) as we wait for the Big Show to begin. BBEast, DJ#2, Lafitte permitted…

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Thanks much for the guiding hand Nicky, always appreciated.

    BOP – and he may have something to say on BB East in terms of sands, we’ll know if Jim Bob pops off a simultaneous ops update which could be any day now.

  55. 55
    choices Says:

    Z-any near term catalysts on TAT-I’m thinking about adding some as it as been beat down fairly well-thanks

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Re TAT – We should get an important exploration test during 4Q, not exactly sure of timing so I left it off the catalyst list as it could slip to 1Q11. Will check and circle back by end of day.

  57. 57
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    more on EXXI near-term… PXP is selling their GoM assets. Speculation is that PXP will split the asset sale into two = deepwater and ultra-deep shelf. Depending on who PXP sells their ultra-deep shelf to, this could set up a move in operator MMR and partner EXXI.

    PXP is probably “cheap” down here… but the Flores Thrill is just gone, gone, gone for me. Will be watching from the sidelines. But, could have positive implications for MMR/EXXI.

  58. 58
    elduque Says:

    HK looks like it has found a buyer. It is about time.

    Also natural gas is behaving like it has been beaten down enough.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Eld – yeah, probably due a further move on a better day. I thought it was way overdone on the downside when it broke $20 so $16 seems like bargain basement. But I also expected weakness for gas in the shoulder season and it came on faster and harder to the downside than I thought it would … should be close to spent. Have read about big supplies coming on in the August data from Robry and others and I have to say that if that was the case, and there is no historical precedent for the size of the increase these guys are talking, then we would not have seen injections skirting the low end of the range for July and August. Time will tell. Meanwhile, LNG continues to go anywhere but the U.S. due to low prices.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    BOP – Yeah, HT had this day right, zzzzzz. Doing some reading.

  61. 61
    RMD Says:

    PXP: waht would be really interesting = some of the existing partners buy PXP’s stake. Not hearing rumor, just musing.

  62. 62
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RMD — wonder if they will just try to carve it up amongst themselves? On the other hand, MMR is going to need to bring in a Sugar Daddy… but hoping they don’t have to DO anything until BBE and DJ#2 get some solid formation data. So, maybe the chance to get grab a good position, cheap, will be to pick up PXP’s share.

  63. 63
    apbd Says:

    JC reiterates a buy on WFT. Expects to beat 3d Q est of .16 by a few pennies.

  64. 64
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Read something that this summer was the warmest on record in terms of HDD. Records go back to 1950. Is it still true that cold winters burn about 3X as much NG as warm summers. Lightened up on some VNR today. Thanks. (I know you are not long)

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    RMD – EXXI has that history of adding to already held WI%s.

    Thanks APBD – saw another comment on that in positive light this morning. Two in the same day for a name that rarely gets love. I liked their 2Q and I liked their 2Q comments re their outlook even more.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Tom – it’s more yes but the summers creep higher in terms of NG demand each year. We sort of have to expect a warmer winter in the wake of a hot summer, seems to be a usual pattern especially after a bitterly cold winter like we had last year. And all the long range forecasters are calling for a more moderate winter this year.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Re-listening to Gastar at Enercom

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    HAL trying to pop up off the floor here, most things just treading water. ATPG, EXXI, HK, SSN only green on my main screen.

  69. 69
    Jason Says:

    Z – WH (a play of yours from a while back) with a 25% pop today. Any news there?

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Jason – The China news on temporarily curbing steel production had all of the Chinese steel makers up last night as product prices shot up.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    I take back all the “this is the most boring day of the year” comments prior to this one and declare that this is the most boring day of the year.

  72. 72
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    sssssssssssshhhhhhhhhhhhh…. you’ll wake up HeadTrader….

  73. 73
    elduque Says:

    For a boring day there have some pretty good moves off the bottom. Crude being one of them.

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    WLT recovered to green after a big opening swoon. Interesting as I would have thought China cutting back on steel production would have been seen as a normal bit of maneuvering by the Chinese to whack met coal import prices prior to contract negotiations in October and November.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    ElD – agreed, was typing 74, before I saw 73, looking about a bit, I see plenty of them. This is mostly a throw away day, tomorrow may get a bit more bouncy but again no data so it could be a grinder higher.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Surprised LINE is getting no play on its Granite Wash deal. I’d bet money (and am) that their deal is acretive near term and with results like those in the Granite Wash you can just feel the approaching distribution hike. At Enercom they mentioned getting back into “lift the distribution” mode.

  77. 77
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – How influential is the distilate side that moves oil in the winter? Does it appear that an event that is not related to weather or economics is going to push oil up through the current trading range? Is it a lack of agressive recruiting that keeps Arkansas from contending in the SEC(football)?

  78. 78
    crysball Says:

    CIGX holders …..Bloomberg just had a feature that the success of Anti-Smoking efforts are flat lined and that 24 percent of U.S. adults are still smoking….plenty of market potential for a an efficacious product!

  79. 79
    RMD Says:

    77- ouch, now that is getting personal, just as the answers will be very personal and opinionated, a bit like “who has the best barbeque?”

  80. 80
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    crys — have had a few interesting conversations with a large institutional holder of CIGX. He gets almost giddy, when describing the potential there. The market is HUGE. And there is no other product like it. If it “works” on just a small segment of smokers who want to quit…. well… the numbers become quite large, quite fast.

  81. 81
    john11 Says:

    Z..I’m totally with you re LINE added more today.

    From today’s LINE release re the Wolfberry property acquisitions..
    . Additionally, we expect these acquisitions to be immediately accretive to cash flow per unit upon closing.”

    From today’s Granite Wash release
    … The Granite Wash drilling program is a significant component of our organic growth strategy, which we believe will provide meaningful growth in our cash flow over the course of the next several years.”

  82. 82
    crysball Says:

    Loops 24 should be 21

  83. 83
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Things That Suck — coming back from spending August at your House in The Hamptons to find your junior PM did not cover that short position in ATPG yet.

    heh, heh, heh

  84. 84
    ram Says:

    RMD – Questions were not to incite anything bad. Although, if ZMAN comes back with “ram, check your email”, then all bets are off.

  85. 85
    ram Says:

    RMD – Eastern North Carolina has the best barbeque.

  86. 86
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram — U R funny.

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    John – right, it’s not if but when the distribution gets lifted. In the meantime I am content to be paid to wait.

    Re 77.

    Part 1. Distillates pricing is important to winter crude pricing but not as important as gasoline is in the summer. This winter, the bloated nature of stocks of heating oil and diesel will do little good for crude pricing. If margins weaken (and I’m torn on whether or not they will because I think traders are likely to discount a bigger than normal refinery turn season) then I would expect refiners to resort to a longer turn season as well, depressing demand for crude. As to what takes crude out of the trading range … it’s got to be fundamental demand from the west, both the U.S. and Europe. Any “event” that does so is more than likely to a short lived. OPEC won’t risk cutting production and the wrath of eco anger. The efforts to get the US on renewables have been laughable and that’s their biggest fear so why mess with it. They’ll talk about stricter adherence to quotas but I don’t expect real change out of the Cartel. Other events like a Strait of Hormuz problem or a Nigeria offensive will likely get only passing notice until the global economy retightens. I see prices higher next year as we approach that, but not by a lot until things are more certain.

    Part II. No. It is the gaping hole in the offensive line on the left side. Mallet was 21 for 24 so the kid can toss a ball.

  88. 88
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    (and i wasn’t refering to the BBQ)

    I think Texas Brisket is pretty darn tasty!

  89. 89
    RMD Says:

    I understand 84. Seems AR players are always capable of making bone-headed decisions late in the 4th quarter which cost them the close games.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    And our Dfence looked outstanding.

  91. 91
    reefguy Says:

    #57- I can confirm that this is under discussion

  92. 92
    ram Says:

    ZMAN, thanks. It just seems that oil is stuck in a relative rut. It appears that only a stronger economic scenario will allow it to move higher with a stronger foundation.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Thanks Reef, good to know.

    Ram – yep, I think anything else is a Chinese red herring.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    Note that the S&P is off about 2% year to date and the 12 month strip on oil is off about 4%. So basically sideways until something real happens.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    SSN – still no news though this is the deal day. Guessing tonight or tomorrow latest we get word or the stock will start pulling back.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    VTZ – continued nice call on gold, new high today.

  97. 97
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    More Short Talk — borrow on ATPG shares is 21.4%. I’ve seen worse… but, still, that tells me there are a lot of unhappy Senior PMs getting back to the office today. And there is NO borrow (at least at GS) for CIGX.

  98. 98
    RMD Says:

    visited western NC this spring and was very impressed. great thin sauce.

  99. 99
    RMD Says:

    RBC expects 1.24X coverage in 3Q10 with acquired volumes helping coverage for 4Q. Expects distribution increase of 3 cents (had been at 1 cent) in 4Q which still gives a 1.32X coverage in 4Q.
    (This a new analyst.)

  100. 100
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    RMD; thanks

  101. 101
    DrLink Says:

    Once you have the meat and BBQ sauce …all you need is this puppy to put a smile on everyone’s face


    sorry Z but I was getting hungry with all this BBQ talk

  102. 102
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #101 — kinda makes the Green Egg look dowright boring….

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    Thanks RMD, that seems about right, not looking for a giant increase but that’s pretty big.

    Will have GST comments in the morning post.


  104. 104
    zman Says:

    Re 101. Wow. My barrel smoker with offset heat is quite the poor cousin to that.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    BALT with a vessel run aground, sounds pretty minor.

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    Explosion at Mexico’s 3rd largest refinery.

  107. 107
    Geno Says:

    Hard to beat the Big Green Egg

  108. 108
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Geno — spoken like a true Green Egger. That said, shore makes some tasty BBQ.

  109. 109
    DrLink Says:

    Believe me, it beats the green Egg. The Egg is metal can…. compared to the Komodo, which is made of high tech refractory ceramics. I’m looking at it right outside my window as it cooks a 7 pound pork shoulder for 14 hours with only one helping of hardwood lump charcoal…..


  110. 110
    RobBanks Says:

    z- this is after hours, so I know I may not hear back until tomorrow.

    Is there a chance LINE will spring a secondary on us for this latest acquisition? I know they said it would be funded by their revolver, but ya never know.

    Is their cash/revolver position such that this won’t make too big a dent?

  111. 111
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #8 BOP, thank you much for the vote…

  112. 112
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    SSN announced that the majority of the planned acreage sales have closed for $63.7mm. A second piece will close around Sept 20th for $6.3mm and possibly (probably) another small piece for $4.4mm. So, total acreage sales planned at $74.4mm. If I added it all up right.

    83.2mm ADS and $74.4mm proceeds = 89¢ per share. nice!

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    Samson on the tape with Goshen sale results… mostly done. Will have full details in the morning.

  114. 114
    bill Says:

    exxi out with a beat..ebitda 78.8 m..bop im sure is happy

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    Bill – yeah, they preannounced results in August, slight beat on EBITDA, bigger one on EPS. No guidance, nothing really new in the ops update. Call should be interesting. May or may not get a pr from Jim Bob in the next few weeks but I'd side with more than 50/50 that we do.

    SSN – have run through the model, added some tweaks and will have a new table out in the morning. In a nutshell, I'm very pleased we are likely to come in near the high end of the range.

  116. 116
    zman Says:

    Robanks – I'll have that in the Stuff section tomorrow.

    Choices – same re TAT.

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