02
Sep
Thursday – Oil Review, Gas Preview + Coal Thoughts
Market Sentiment Watch: China comments overnight Tuesday and a stronger than expected ISM reading in the morning drove the S&P to a 3% gain yesterday, right back to its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Oil marked that gain. Natural gas however traded on storm related news, not of a Gulf hit, but of the dampening effect on cooling load a storm brushing along the East Coast will have. Natural gas notwithstanding, I think people simply got tired of selling and used the start of a new month and the for-once-not-so bad economic data to go on a buying spree. Volumes were not all that impressive as year to date levels go but they were strong if you just look at the last three months or so. Today, the jobless claims and productivity numbers were in line with expectations but we still have a dour looking Payrolls report tomorrow. One bright spot, pessimism is incredibly high and inflows
Housekeeping Watch: If you ever see that the site is down for more than five minutes, check your email for a message from us. Also, check the back up site at http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com. Please bookmark this page. We monitor the site on a minute by minute basis and strive to be up at all times. Yesterday, our hosting company went offline, something that is beyond our control. An email to the effect of the site being down and where to go in the meantime was sent to the subscriber list and the backup site was activated within five minutes of us going down.
Moratorium Watch: Last night, a federal judge gives Obama the stiff arm on the deep water drilling moratorium by refusing to dismiss the Hornbeck Offshore lawsuit. The Administration had wanted the suit, which dated from the time of Moratorium #1, to be dismissed after it replaced the drilling ban with Moratorium #2. The judge said the Moratorium's are not materially dissimilar and allowed the suit to proceed. Not that it helps the unemployed rig workers today but it should push the Administration to reconsider all types of drilling in the deep water Gulf of Mexico from being banned. Specifically this should play well for ATPG.
Ecodata Watch:
- Jobless claims came in at 472,000 vs the Street's 473,000 estimate
- Productivity for 2Q10 was 1.8% vs expectations of -1.9%
- We get July Factory Orders at 10 am EST, forecast is 0.2% vs 1.2% in the preceding month
- We get July Pending Home Sales at 10 am EST, forecast is for -1.5% vs -2.6% in the preceding month
In today's post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- Natural Gas Inventory Preview
- Stuff We Care About Today - Coal / WLT Thoughts
- Odds & Ends
Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):
- $5,200
- 100% Cash
- Yesterday’s Trades: None
ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
- $7,700
- 20% Cash
- Yesterday’s Trades:
- Sold (50) MMR September $15 calls for $0.57, up 103% to my average cost, with the stock hovering at $14.66. Lightening up on risky positions in front of the rest of the week’s economic data. May go back in on a dip tomorrow or Friday in the markets. I continue to hold the $14 strikes.
- NOG – Added (2) more NOG September $10 Calls for $4.90, on the mid and easily with the stock at $14.92. This brings my average cost in the $10s to $5.30. They should trade almost dollar to dollar with the stock from here.
Commodity Watch Crude oil rebounded $1.99 to close at $73.91 yesterday and was fairly unaffected by the EIA's weekly report on inventories. In a nutshell the numbers were not too bad and a draw down on distillates was a welcome surprise (see details below). This morning crude is trading off slightly.
- China Watch: The Anti-Moratorium. China plans to spend $37 to $41 billion over the next five years on offshore oil production. This is China's 12th 5 year plan. Hmmm. I don't recall seeing an any year plan ever for the U.S. asset base.
Natural gas closed $0.05 to close at $3.76. This morning gas is trading flat.
- Tropics Watch: One after another after another. And now we have Tropical Storm Gaston that formed off of Africa and is tracking a little further east than those other storms, and possibly for a collision with the islands and then the Gulf. Bears close watching.
Natural Gas Preview: I'm at 50 Bcf for today's storage number
- Last Week: 40 Bcf Injection
- Last Year: 64 Bcf Injection
- 5 Year Average: 62 Bcf Injection
- 10 year Hi: 92 Bcf Injection
- 10 year Low: 34 Bcf Injection
The Street is at 55 Bcf
Oil Inventory Review
.jpg)
ZComment: Not too bad. Gasoline demand has either peaked or will peak this week (next week's report) for the year and if you look at the chart in the gasoline section below you can see that as demand levels go, it was a very respectable season, especially in light of unemployment. Less people flying = more people driving. On the distillate side, we saw a nice but probably short lived (2 or 3 weeks) pop in demand. This could be the north east heating oil retailers getting an early start or it could be a bounce in exports. The data for demand isn't that granular so its impossible to say without several more weeks of numbers. I still expect distillate stocks to move further into record territory before real heating related demand pulls them back and this will not be supportive of crude prices much in excess of the current trading band. As for oil stocks, I would expect them to erode into fall more slowly than in recent years with refinery utilization falling faster than imports. Again, this augers for range bound crude in the near term.
Crude:
Gasoline:
Distillates:
Stuff We Care About Today
Coal Watch:
- Coal prices are up year to date. Click here for a link to EIA prices.
- Coal production is falling: rail car loadings are off 5.9% YoY. This is largely due to mine closures in 2009 which were largely driven by economics.
- Coal demand is up in the U.S. due to the hot summer. Should moderate some this winter as a) natural gas is cheap on a heat rate basis, and b) this winter is expected to be milder.
- Coal imports are falling - diverted to Asia
- Coal exports are rising
- Exports for generation are rising.
- Exports of metallurgical coal are up in excess of 250% YoY - due largely to demand from China, India, Japan.
- This leads to lower domestic stocks and statements like those from WLT who says they are selling everything they can get out of the ground.
- But coal producers' earnings estimates have for the most part been slightly trimmed since the last time I was looking at their numbers just prior to the end of the second quarter.
Table of Coal Producers
.jpg)
- As you can see from the table above, the group is not trading at exorbitant multiples and it has certainly not kept pace with the rise in coal prices. Many estimates are simply down from earlier this year due to overzealous modeling assumptions for prices on the part of the sellside.
- Fundamental outlook remains solid for both generation and met coal.
- Global steel production up big this year, up 18% in June (Latin America, Europe, China, India, and Japan all up)
- Steel production is expected to grow about 5% per annum through 2020.
- Met coal market was balanced in 2009, falling well short of demand in 2010.
- Walter projects this imbalance will last through at least 2013
, with demand growing 7% per annum 2011 to 2013. Supply is projected to grow slightly more but is starting from a lower level and simply will not catch up.
- Recall that the U.S. is not the only economy and that Latin America (Brazil specifically) is expanding steel capacity after a brief respite.
- China in the meantime is growing both thermal and met coal demand and has rapidly transitioned from being one of the biggest exporters in the early 2000s to a size importer in 2009 and 2010.
- India's demand is simply soaring, due to both steel production and a rapid increase in the amount of coal fired generation now under construction (88 GW) - (perfect for BTU to take advantage of from Australia)
- By the way, a good sized nuke in the U.S. (with 2 to 3 reactors) is about a gigawatt and the U.S. has about 100 of those. India's 88 GW are set to come on line in the next five years. This will more than triple India's thermal coal consumption.
- Second by the way, the U.S. has 337 GW of coal fired capacity at present. And half of the U.S.'s electricity comes from coal. So you can see what I'm getting at here.
- Third by the way and I'll cut it out, China will add 55 GW of new capacity in 2010 alone.
- BTU estimates their current pace puts them on par for adding 1 billion tons of new coal demand every 3 years. These guys are going green? Yeah, right.
- WLT - Walter Energy
- presently my only coal investment, held in the ZLT, average price of $69
- high quality, low cost producer of coking (metallurgical) coal
- Coking coal contract settlements for second half 2010 average $237 per ton (premium product gets premium price). Peabody also has rising coking coal prices with 3Q at $225 per ton
- Expanding coking operations, can't keep up with international demand
- Part of the reduction in earnings estimates here is an assumption of lower gas prices by the coal analysts following the company. WLT produces an increasing amount of gas from the Black Warrior Basin in Alabama, a coal bed methane conducive area. This is a minor piece of the Walter puzzle at this point ... nothing but upside here.
- At present, half of their coking coal goes to Europe, with the rest mostly landing in Brazil, then Asia and finally about 3% stays in the U.S.
- Production capacity is growing:
- 2010: about 7.75 million tons
- 2011: 8.5 to 9 mm tons
- 2012: 9 to 9.5 mm tons
- all without additional capex.
- 3Q should be substantially better than 2Q on the bottom line. Street now at $2.87 for 3Q vs the 2QA of $2.16 due in large part to a 20+% expected jump in the top line. Low operating costs let pricing advantages fall through to the bottom line.
- The company continues to buy back shares and the balance sheet remains strong.
- presently my only coal investment, held in the ZLT, average price of $69
- BTU - Peabody
- This one I have been in and out of in calls in the last three years.
- I find the story now to be one that will likely suit calls but also a position in the ZLT and I am actively looking to prune something to give it space in the portfolio.
- They are actively expanding their Australian operations to capture more of the growing demand from China and India outlined above.
- BTU on the domestic front positioned to take advantage of the few new plants that do get built in the States with it's low sulfur, low BTU content coal from the Powder River Basin.
- Mulling more active trading around China news here, also mulling the ZLT add.
Odds & Ends Analyst Watch:
- None that I see so far, will add in comments.
Hello. Up, but very slow.
September 2nd, 2010 at 7:58 amrobry and enercast both at + 53
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:04 amsd with a new presentation
they threw in the towel on 2011 ng hedges
hedging 47 bcf at 4.73 for 2011 and another 10 in 2012 about 60 % coverage for 2011
Interestingly , they cashed in 2013 oil hedges on 1.5 m bbls, i figure they made 7 per bbl so 10 m will come into the pl as realized gains in q3
the other oil hedges are about 110m in the money
speed seems ok
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:15 amdo you think there will be consolidation in offshore rigs?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/09/01/rig-takeover-rumblings.aspx
Bill – yes, there have been rumblings for awhile now that consolidation is coming. I had thought ESV would take out RDC to beef up. Then there were the SDRL comments yesterday along the lines that they see challenging RIG in coming years.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:18 am# 2 SD just can't get it right. Reminds me of when you buy a stock wrong, the position never seems to right itself.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:19 amsite seems slow to me.
Baltic up today. Very slow for me as well.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:20 amSite is slow. It is out of my hands but should resolved itself today. Always happens after a server issue of significant magnitude. Feel free to use the backup site today, it is hosted elsewhere and is fast.
http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com/
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:22 amsite speed seems fine using firefox
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:23 amIt's intermittent. Sometimes fast, sometimes slow.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:24 amWas at an investor meeting last night, talked with a bond guy, he was very interested in trading SD debt.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:25 amhere are the average actual monthly spot rates for supramax ships
jan
25,289
feb
22,313
march
27,676
qtr 1
25,093
apr
26,977
may
31,370
june
24,985
qtr 2
27,777
july
18,719
aug
19,944
sept
21,055
qtr 3
19,906
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:28 amq3 earnings wont be as good as q2 was for spot players as you can see q2 avgd 27 k per day, q3 is about 20 k
Burger King being taken out by a global private equity group. Why? Because the stock market is cheap and borrowers have access to very low-priced money.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:29 amPrivate investors may be shunning the stock market. But smart predators are picking off juicy prey. This will continue….
Re This will continue …
Agreed. And in the energy space. It is cheaper to drill on Wall Street than in the field. I expect to see some gas assets get bought on the cheap in the next few months. Perhaps by India and China, and perhaps by some locals like DVN.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:32 amDodged a bullet with the market this morning, was thinking a miss on this mornings' numbers would bring a down market so got lucky that didn't happen as I did not get my HAL calls out the door yesterday largely due to site related distractions. I did punt all of the MMR $15s and will watch those for re-entry tomorrow. Stocks look to be in standby mode.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:34 amNo one making a big deal of the Hornbeck suit, probably because it won't matter … by the time it is settled, it will be the end of November and the Administration will have gotten its way despite the court's ruling. Still thinking ATPG good for a quick trade around any moratorium news that indicates an early softening of the Admin's stance or, at the very least, around the end of November.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:40 am#13 – I think this is a real possibility near term. Z – what do you think are the catalysts for this type of thing? In my mind you already have some of the key bits in place –
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:40 amcheap funding – check
beat up valuations – check
some big acreage holders that have proven acreage but current pricing doesn't support upsizing drilling budgets – check
Every time I think about spending some quality time with SD, I recall that they are building their own "business campus." How much are they planning to spend on that? Just read thru the 2Q10 Q and can't find it.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:49 am1520 – I think gas production showing chinks in the armor. We’ve had a definite slowing of the growth rate. If we start to see evidence that conventional production declines are offsetting gains from the resources plays AND drilling schedules remains forecast to slow further, two events that will lead to the eventual return of higher gas prices (not to mention increased demand) then I think you see some money get off the sidelines. I think everyone is an oil company now (except HK and MCF) because that’s what you need to be to please the Street. But the bargains will be on the gas side. LINE said it and I think they are correct. Buy low, sell high. Anyway, I mentioned DVN because of their new found love of the onshore U.S. and because some gassy players in good positions are currently distressed. They could eat an HK with very little stress to the balance sheet. I have not heard any rumors there in the slightest, just musing.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:52 amRe DVN, I still don’t think they buy anyone soon. They’ve ramped up leasing already in a lot of Permian/Cana etc and spent a good chunk of their asset sale dough on share repurchases in July. Based on my conversations with them I think they continue to do that and get the $3.5bln buyback done.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:57 amI read somewhere that they will spend 100 m on it
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:00 am#18,19 – agree on gas price stability as a key point. I have no idea who the acquirers line up would include but i think overseas participants are a legit possibility.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:03 ambill — thank you. That is what I thought I heard. Did Tom Ward learn NOTHING from watching the excesses of Aubrey? I am just speechless, at that glaring example of bad judgement.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:04 amBOP – $100 mm rings a bell on that.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:04 amJat – thanks, was just thinking out loud. Probably ought to give it some thought but I rarely care who is buying … at least not as much as the buyee.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:07 amATPG acting very well today.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:08 amHAL inching through yesterday’s highs. Still has a gap to fill above $30.34. And I still plan to take my $31s off the table before payrolls tomorrow.
Does anyone know where Goldman is on the payroll numbers (total and private)?
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:09 amNBL in complete breakout mode, JB had that on a new PF buy signal on yesterday’s breakout above $71.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:11 amre 25. Yeah, would like it to hang back for a bit.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:13 amNo one expects Obama to extend the moratorium into November.
When do you think he will lift it?
Two week before the elections seems too late, so earlier than mid october
When will he cancel detention?
Thinking out loud.. late on a friday afternoon 9/10, 9/17, 9/24
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:15 amBy the way, in cased you didn’t get the email and didn’t read the post, I doubled up on my deep in the money NOG calls yesterday. The company appears to be doing everything right but has been soft (until yesterday) since earnings, along with the rest of the Bakken players. My sense is they have moved a little further out of the backwings and into the lime light with their latest quarter. Think of it as the MCF of the Bakken. 7 employees, a strong balance sheet and drilling alongside the best of the best players in the Bakken.
NG storage in 15 minutes.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:16 amBill – I think he lifts it in 2 stages. Development drilling where temp, pressure data are known goes first, then exploratory wells second. I think to just flip and say we’ve got data and the new rules are in place are too much for ego and recent comments from Salazar to take.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:18 amAPC could be on BHP’s acquisition list according to Australian reports. Just came over Reuters.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:19 amOfficial (bloomberg) ests are for a loss of 100k non-farm jobs tomorrow. Goldman is reporting a prediction of -125k. Don’t know what the whisper number is yet.
No one is around. Just us chickens. Everyone is out. Gone. On vacay.
And their cell phones/blackberries have been turned off. NO one wants to even THINK about what this summer has been. It’s just too damn depressing.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:19 amOAS also snapped a losing streak yesterday.
WLL shot back close to its 2010 high. Just need a little positive news from the market to give crude a move towards $75 /$76.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:20 amSomeone said August was the worst month in 9 years. Maybe that makes for a better Sept/Oct, I don’t know. But good to have it behind us. I’m overweight in SSN again and the ZLT is near its high so I feel good about that. On options it was very tough and with a little recent day trading, I’ve managed to do a little better than tread water. But nothing to write home about. Looking forward to the day when the market resolves itself to go in one direction or another and not just flop about like a dying fish.
Another thing the speaker at the meeting I was at last night (former bond guy at Lehman and on this site but rarely speaks) talked about was the massive flows to bond funds and away from stocks. Combine that with the inflows to inversely correlated ETFs and you probably have an overly pessimistic stock market at least in the short term. His comment was “you can lose money in bonds just as fast as you can in the stock market … most people just don’t know or believe that”. He was basically pointing out what a CNBC article this morning was saying that at some point in the not too distant future there will be a rush to the exits for bonds and that will be good for stocks. “Do you want to be buying into bonds at their all time, all time, all time high” he asked?
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:26 amBop has been right for some time that there is a lot of money floating around, which allows the BHP’s of the world to go after cos that offer irreplaceable assets. Think Potash.
Doesn’t CHK with all its assets and being relatively cheap make a good candidate for a takeover?
Who would you put on the top 5 list of candidates?
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:28 am#35 = exactly the reason i don’t like bond funds. You want fixed income… buy the actual bond. But when you buy into a bond fund, your NAV jumps around with money flows.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:30 am54 Bcf, in line with consensus, a touch high to me.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:30 amRE 35 – I still stand by my statement that the US treasury is the biggest bubble of all. Trillions of $ of overvalued debt will not end well. It’s a well know fact except people continue to pile in.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:31 amsd 100 m bldg
http://okc.biz/article/03-22-2010/SandRidge_unveils_plans_for_the_energy_company%E2%80%99s_properties.aspx
and pictures and artist renderings
http://www.rogersmarvel.com/Sandridge.html
i want to work there..looks very nice!
Ward is living in another world. He needs to go, imho
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:39 amre 39, I agree. Bt some TBT yesterday for insurance.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:40 amEld – just for grins
Bigs and Mids
* PXD – cheap on reserves, oily, in the right plays now.
* BRY – oily and cheap on reserves
* FST – cheap
* NOG – I can make that an accretive deal for a lot of folks.
* ROSE – if they get good results in the Montana vertical Bakken/Logdepole play
* NFX – I always think they are going to be taken out, at any minute. Never happens and I don’t want it to but it probably should until they get some respect.
*CHK – cheap, cheaper than usual, but still a big bite for most buyers. They’d really have to be convinced on gas long term.
In the smalls – who knows,
*GDP – cheap and small enough to be hedged out in a slightly better gas price strip than this to be accretive
* SSN – but now I’m just talking my book, there is value to unlock there, and quite a number of plays outside the Niobrara and Bakken but it may be a function of “nice call, too small” for most buyers.
* SD – at some point someone has to take a look. Lot ‘o assets here.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:40 amV – Funny/sad but those piling in see it as a “risk free” trade.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:41 amif ward slows down on the bldg. he is admitting to the world hard times coming
It would be very embarrassing to him in the community
he also needs to slow down on phase 2 on the oxy plant
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:43 amRE 43 – Watch, they’ll blame the ratings agencies again… “What? We didn’t see it coming”
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:44 amRE 45 – You and I both know that the first company to downgrade American debt is going to be place in front of the firing squad.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:45 amBill – I could almost swear Aubrey’s stock peaked in 2008 at around the same time that he put pix of the planned Appalachian division HQ on the internet. Of course, now the damage is done and what’s a $100 mm these days anyway? If they get bought it will be just another asset to divest at a loss as they clean this puppy up. Or maybe they keep it and use it, I’m sure it will be state of the art. DVN is right there, would make a lot of sense to … nope, going with Jat on this one.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:46 amRobry at 53 this week has next week at +46
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:46 amVTZ – You can easily envision the Senate panels now. Gheitner has repeatedly stated U.S. debt will not be downgraded. Almost like an edict.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:47 amBill – thanks, there was a warm bump assumed for this week so the smaller number makes sense. Although Earl could put a kink in that. Next week we have the holiday so two week’s from today expect a ballooned out number.
I put us in the 3.7 to 3.8 Tcf range for peak.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:49 amMMR was quick to rebound off the lows today. I think EXXI will do the same and given the better valuation there, and the oiliness of the name, I really do see them taking out the 2010 highs in the next couple of weeks to months as the Gulf shelf and then deepwater free up in terms of knowing what regulatory environment they are operating in.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:51 amElD – when I say cheap in 42 above, I’m talking about how the market, in terms of TEV/ MCFE of reserves is currently valuing the companies. Some of these guys are oily and under $2/Mcfe now. That’s just silly.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:53 amDon’t know about you guys but the site is running fast for me last 30 minutes or so.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:53 amHAL punching higher now, $31 strikes alive and kicking.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:54 amDoes Ward & Mclendon get along?
CHK likes to own the best reservoirs and then finds jv partners. Maybe they could move into the sd territory and find a partner to develop it. SD/OXY/chk and a 4th int’l partner
Sitting on idle assets makes no sense
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:56 amSite has been fine for me all morning.
September 2nd, 2010 at 9:57 amV – thanks, things seem to be running more smoothly in Canada these days. How’s gas storage up there? Read the other day it had come off substantially but I have not run the numbers there in quite some time.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:00 am4 months ago I would have said partner 4 would be obviously BP. Now I’d say OIL (India) or PTR (China). Of course, people will likely try to block a deal with China in the U.S. which is why they will send their petrodollars on the hunt just about everywhere else, including Canada.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:03 amSlooooow
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:06 amAfter 5 and 7+% up moves yesterday for WLL and WLT, the end of the alphabet team is marking the market today. I went through a bit of EIA data and quite a few presentations from the coals in coming up with today’s posts and I find the arguments for growth compelling. The growth of the Indian and Chinese electricity market is staggering.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:07 amATPG through $12 and not looking back. Maybe tomorrow brings an oppy to get long some. Not willing to chase in front of payrolls.
NOG nudging over $15.
Ram – slower than usual?
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:09 amJB – can we get a read on ATPG when you have time? Thanks.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:11 amNG price essentially unched post number. Market could care less, just wants to know where E,F,G etc are headed.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:15 amSite speed is fine with Firefox as Skimo noted-Explorer rarely works for me consistently and I believe I have the latest version.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:16 amHAL spiked down, weirdly, just as headline hit saying BP has begun removing cap from well.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:16 amhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/223432-how-ung-lost-23-in-august?source=email
Summary of why UNG is poor investment, even when NG is in the toilet-nothing new to anyone here.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:17 amThanks choices. I write in Firefox and rarely look at it in anything else but Safari.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:17 amME Mariner Energy trading lower on Bloomberg headlines indicating a rig explosion in the GOM ($22.57 -$0.78)
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:18 amYes. Several E&P’s spiked down.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:20 amUptick in consumer confidence seems to have been an anomaly:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/09/gallup-poll-shows-consumer-spending.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:22 amME rig explosion just sucked all the air outta the room.
ATPG bounces more than Pam Anderson, running to save some poor drowning actor! wow.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:25 amI see news of ME rig explosion on CBS radio news.
Coming out of MMR, HAL now, will rebuy when dust settles.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:25 amOdd. Mrkt is not necessarily “afraid” of what a rig explosion will do, per se. The FEAR is how our Govt will respond to it.
If that doesn’t make you feel sad… well…
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:26 amAbsolutely correct Bop!
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:28 amZTRADE – ZIM – HAL, MMR
HAL – Sold (25) September $31 for for $0.36, up 12%. Selling due to news of another rig explosion in the Gulf, rig operated by ME.
MMR – Sold (25) September $14 calls for $0.80, up 70%. Same reason.
I look forward to buying both sets back lower in the near future but better safe than sorry for now.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:29 am71, lol
i was wondering why things were selling off
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:30 amSounds like a barge rig on CNN.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:32 amStocks trying the early bounce, I’d rather let the dust settle, if I left a little on the table, so be it.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:33 amhttp://www.wdsu.com/r/24854300/detail.html
That’s shallow water. So much for the early end to the moratorium. Thoughts and prayers to the missing man.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:34 amSorry to ask this dumb question but what is the deal with SD? I mean what is the nature of their huge reported losses? I’m wondering if we are seeing a bottom in this stock? Any good news coming?
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:35 amLooking at the map on CNN, that’s not even shallow water, that’s transition zone or a bay.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:36 amMorning all. I was looking for 1086 area. After that resistance is at 1088. Should see consolidation/pullback to the 1070 area.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:38 amRe SD – It’s gassy and they have too much debt. Maybe a bottom, hard to say, they keep changing their mission, now they are an oil company, lol. Don’t know about good news coming soon. I’m mulling it for a bottom fish trade.
Re the new explosion, sounds like they had 13 guys on it, either a rig or a platform, not sure.
Probably gives a bit of a wind to the Bakken players as money exits one side of energy and goes back to the other.
ATPG now off as much as it was up. The quick bounce is proving fleeting in the names like MMR. EXXI getting hit harder, not close to fair but there you have it.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:41 amMariner operated Vermilion Blk 380 (GOM Shelf)from CNN:
“An oil rig has exploded 80 miles off the coast of Louisiana, with 12 people overboard and one missing, the Coast Guard said Thursday morning.
Rescue attempts are underway for at least 12 people, Coast Guard spokesman John Edwards told CNN. 13 people were on board the rig total, Edwards said, noting 12 have been accounted for, but one person was missing.
The accident took place 80 miles off the coast of Louisiana on the Vermilion Oil rig 380, which is owned by Houston-based Mariner Energy.
The Coast Guard has multiple helicopters, an airplane and several Coast Guard cutters en route. It’s unknown if there are any injuries”
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:44 amThanks much Nicky.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:48 amwhats a barge rig?
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:50 amphew… all 13 workers accounted for… bought ATPG at 11.30
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:50 amVR Block 380 is in 320′ water depth
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:51 ambill — just what it sounds like. A drilling rig, mounted on a barge, for use in shallow water or transition zones (think swampland with alligators).
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:51 amBarge rig is a barge
JY – thanks, getting differing information, yeah, that’s probably a jackup, that’s shallow water, not a barge rig, is in the Gulf, will have a bad impact on GOMEX sentiment and a big “I told you so” from the president. Look for a shallow water moratorium now. Damn, they are going to unemploy the entire Gulf Coast.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:54 amsd actually reported earnings in q2.
1 it was how they got them, cashed in hedges
2. Production flat and cap ex up with arena added to the mix ( very disappointing)
3. Low ng prices and no ng hedges in 2011
Sd tried to remove that issue by hedging 60 % of 2011 at a low price
4. Hi level of debt
5. Idle assets not earning anything
6. ward the ceo has no clue, bldg a taj mahal and trying to keep up with his old boss aubry mcclendon
7. every analyst downgrading them including tudor pickering who asked in a piece
“something amiss at sandridge” then down graded them to 3 dollar target just weeks after they told the world that sd was worth 7 in a fairness opinion
As an aside, I pizzed off TPH when i questioned them on this. their response was to ban me from their daily newsletter
thank you Dan Pickering
Some one should sue them for their sd fairness opinion. Best case it paints the firm in a bad light
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:57 amVerm Blk 380 addn’l info:
Mariner has a 14 well (slot), 2 deck, manned platform that was built in 1980. The platform is 102 miles offshore in 340′ of water. The earlier 319′ depth is the NE corner of the 3 mile x 3 mile block. Oil scout data from 8-27-10 shows no rig at that location. Likely some sort of rigless well work underway (slick line, or wireline, or coil tbg, etc)
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:58 am87, why buy with this now. Helluva a contrarian buy
How the hell can Obama lift things now
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:00 amjy — sounds like it was (is) a production platform. Must have had a lift boat/work boat tied up, doing some workover stuff?
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:02 amBill – onshore names moving up as the offshore names cower.
APA (who just bought ME) starting to get hit, nothing like BP though, 1) it’s a legacy asset and 2) it should be easy to get under control.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:02 am46 – VTZ I believe there are already foreign rating agencies that have USA as less than AAA. There are now only 4 corporate AAA ratings. JNJ, MSFT, XOM & ADP.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:04 amGS piece today: E&P risk/reward improved after pullback, need supply/demand clarity….(now isn’t that insightful?).
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:05 amEsp. like NFX and EOG.
ME spokesman tells CNBC that as far as they can tell, there is “no spill, no sheen, no nothing.”
HT points out “no nothing” = like a kid. Funny, HT.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:08 amRMD – thanks, funny how they liked EOG at $100 but had no goal line defense of it when it tumbled. Man, they just aren’t the big hitters in this group that they used to be. Still, I very much agree and was just thinking to do a trade there in the ZIM as I looked at the onshores.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:09 amATPG doing it’s PA thing again…
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:11 ambouncing.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:11 amnog is getting a benefit like you said
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:11 amZTRADE – ZIM – WLL
WLL – Added (10) September $95 Calls for $1.00 with the stock at $90.75. My sense is that the onshore names will see increasing money flows in coming days and this is my cheap name in the Bakken with a solid story and a liquid options market. I continue to own WLL in the ZLT.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:16 amVR 380 last month of reported production by BOE = May 2010 (BOE usually 4-5 months behind on production reporting)
73,493 bbl condensate
317,642 Mcf gas
19,211 Bbl water
Total block Production:
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:17 am6,037,256 BO
33 Bcf gas
Just unloaded my SD trade on hearing about the $100m Taj Mahal. I’ll take the small profit and not argue with it.
It looks like it could run on the chart, but … I don’t want to be thinking about an investment in building commercial real estate. Right now you could just buy any amount of the stuff for very little… and then watch it lose what little value it had.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:20 amThanks JY, so max they’d be worried about from a production standpoint is 2,370 bopd (not caring about the gas).
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:21 amDman — i want to like SD down here… but have to agree with you. The $100mm Pantheon to Pride is just too much to overlook.
Next, they will be putting their name on a basketball arena, or the like.
That story just never ends well….
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:25 amOAS chasing $18 now, total change of trend in 2 days.
NOG trying same.
SSN treading water by the way which is interesting in front of next Tuesday when they get a big suit case full of cash. The size of suitcase can range a bit – by about $18 mm or $22 per share.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:27 amZ,……..108
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:42 amIs there decimal missing in the SSN post as you call out $18/$22 per share ?
RE: Flash Crash-article may be of interest-understand that SEC is looking into high frequency trading to determine if individual trades are getting screwed-duh
http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Su10_MalmgrenStys.pdf
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:45 amCrys – meant to write:
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:46 am$18 million
or
$0.22 per share
(about 83 mm shares)
Let me know if anyone sees a Coast Guard press conference on the platform fire.
I will rebuy HAL tomorrow post numbers.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:48 amGaston looking very much like a Gulf
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:53 amHurricane in the making as it’s current consensus track is S. of Purerto Rico
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3068
EOG can’t get out of its own way
My basket of small Canadian gold/silver stocks, many of which I know hardly anything about, is getting very jiggy.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:53 amDman-heh-have to ask-jiggy as in good or as in bad.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:55 amZ – media not exactly going crazy about the rig explosion. Maybe it’s “rig-explosion fatigue”.
i.e. “if it isn’t more spectacular than the last one, then we’ve got other things to obsess about.” Eg Obama vacation etc.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:57 amCrys – my Hurricane app on the iphone shows it bending for the east coast after brushing the islands. There is already another cloud pile behind it and each one of these has pushed further east so I would expect one to go Gulfward soon. The Coast Guard really ought to get out of BP’s way on this plugging operation.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:57 amchoices, jiggy = good 🙂
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:58 amAlthough I just checked and several models now having it skirting just south of Cuba as well which would put it on course for trouble.
September 2nd, 2010 at 11:59 amOffshores not being more punted now. Interesting. No immediate shut down of all production in the Gulf? Somebody get the President off the 9th hole.
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:01 pmDo not know the reputation of the guy being quoted but prob no surprise as to the negative opinion on NG-somewhat surprised as to extent in time-Z,any opinion about the “King” or his opinion.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/223095-what-the-king-of-natural-gas-forecasting-says-about-future-prices?source=email
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:07 pmChoices – not really. I don’t know the analyst he is referring to. I scanned it and I’m not surprised of the opinion and I have to say I think we will be range bound, other than seasonally influences for the next 6 months. 18 months is probably a stretch as both demand should rise and supply should being to come off more rapidly in 9 to 12 months and the market will generally start discounting that via a rising price a bit earlier. Low prices cure low prices.
I would like to know what the author’s easy to read newsletter looks like and why he has 25000 followers, I guess achieved by mostly cut in paste if this article is deemed to be representative, vs my whopping 250 followers over on SA. I just feel so cold and alone now after having seen all the love that he gets and I do not. It makes me just want to say BE CAREFUL WHERE YOU GET YOUR NEWS AND ANALYSIS, LOLOLOLOL!!! Man, someone must have slipped one of BOP’s “supplements” in my coffee.
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:14 pmNBL at $72, argh.
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:15 pmTropics watch:
http://www.crownweather.com/
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:16 pmCould be a platform rig out for ME. 13 people is nowhere near the amount of hands for a J/U.
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:19 pmCNN is now calling it a platform.
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:21 pm… inner peace …. inner peace ….
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:27 pmThe Crown Weather image on its first page is simply a copy of the National Hurricane Center’s Atlantic storm map.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The difference is that you can click on the storms on the NHC site and see projections of future positions, so I prefer it.
What names are likely to move if Gaston swings into the Gulf?
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:30 pmOccam – yes, I use several sites, was just showing the string of storms.
Depends on where in the Gulf. Central shallow water would do good things for gas prices more than oil, especially if there is infrastructural damage. That would take you to the hedged and unhedged players. Easiest name there is SWN for a storm related gas bounce play. If it were to come onshore in Texas or Texas/La border and do damage, then I’d be looking for pops in SUN, TSO, HOC, FTO, and watching for VLO damages.
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:34 pmZTRADE – ZIM – EOG
EOG – Added (5) September $90 calls for $2.01 with the stock at $89.05. A bit risky in front of tomorrow’s payroll number but I will likely double this and the WLL from earlier if the numbers are bad or good (depending on how bad of course tomorrow). The recent route of EOG shares seems overdone. I continue to own higher strike calls here and the common in the ZLT.
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:39 pmZ – #122 I can tell you about Keith Schaefer’s newsletter because I subscribe to it 🙂
He has a lot of followers because his entry into newslettering was very well timed – basically the middle of the mega-crash of 08-09. He specializes in Canadian oil & gas juniors and his portfolio did *very* well coming out of the crash.
Most of what he sends subscribers is his own analysis, but he also sends along interviews with assorted other people, of which the NG price piece was an example.
Schaefer has his own view on NG but given the arcane and let’s be honest, difficult nature of the NG beast, he looks for input from those with a track record.
For most of the time I’ve been paying attention, Schaefer has been leaning heavily to the oily names.
As for the newsletter being “easy to read”, well it is if you just want to read the bit that says “buy 5000 shares of an obscure stock you never heard of”.
But actually I find the sheer amount of information he provides is a bit overwhelming. I could manage it if that was all I was doing, i.e. I think getting a handle on Canadian juniors is a full time job.
However I’ve been reading him long enough to conclude that he is expert in this stuff and is also very sharp on the investment/psychology aspect. He spends a lot of time talking to analysts and management, so he is about as plugged in to that sector as you can be.
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:52 pmThen I guess I am just 1/100th as expert and plugged in as he is.
September 2nd, 2010 at 12:56 pmz #131 – say it ain’t so
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:07 pmZ, What was the knock on REXX, was it a management issue? They are at TD on their Niobrara test the Peacekeeper #1-29H and hope to frac this month. This well is approximately 2.5 miles NE of SM’s Silo Field well that tested at 500 boepd during July. SM has already scheduled the offset well about a mile southeast. Any thoughts anyone?
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:07 pmWst – It was valuation, have it on my list of things to take a closer look at near term along with GST.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:09 pmMile long sheen:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_gulf_rig_explosion
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:11 pmthx
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:11 pmI’ll do something on it very soon.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:12 pmZ – #132 you had me stumped there until I realized you were comparing the size of the adoring hordes.
Options players are a smaller crowd.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:17 pmVQ walking higher. Onshore, oily focus.
Dman – Then maybe I should publish the full history on the ZLT. Lawyer gave me a bill the other day just to let me know I could so I might as well get some use out of that.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:19 pm#136 Oh crap. Cue media frenzy and WH spokesperson. BTW, isn’t it time they dumped that guy? I thought you were supposed to burn thru the press secretaries every year or so.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:20 pmWest – Rodman sure likes REXX, $20 target today.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:21 pmZMAN – I was thinking, those NOG 10’s have an open interest of 53. If, for some unknown reason, the rats all jump ship at the same time, can the MM force a low bid/below stock price offer only?
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:22 pmZ – I notice you are much more cautious about the legal stuff than most people.
As for Schaefer, well you could say that he’s gotten by so far with exactly one market timing call. It was a good one, but he remains untested in that department.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:27 pmRam – yes. They can and do do that, more on the ASE than on NYSE listings, generally by keeping a wide spread and widening it if they see supply they were not prepared for on the bid. If you are watching it now, they are trading shallow to intrinsic this deep in the money call by about 4%. Sometimes if the stock is moving down rapidly or the market is you will see the bid soft to intrinsic by 10%. I generally don’t care for deep in the money options but here, I felt that it would uptick more than it has and I doubled the position when it didn’t and could probably with a little patience bag $5.20 in the next little bit or $5.10 right now. To me this is relatively conservative way of “owning the stock move” over the next few days at 1/3 of the stock price (more leverage for me) while obtaining 100% of the delta and if carefully bought, paying little to no premium. The higher strikes would have offered more leverage to be sure but the premiums struck me as excessive, meaning the stock would really need to get up and move. Generally on ones like these, if you want out, you can tap the mid a hair under or in line with intrinsic, regardless of where the bid is at and get filled in a minute or two.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:37 pmD – apologies for that but I have found it to be a litigious little world we live in.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:39 pmOil closing at $75, up a $1.10. Stocks sure aren’t reflecting that.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:43 pmGaston tracks looking more ominous:
http://media.myfoxtampabay.com/myfoxhurricane/
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:48 pmGaston called a Cat 1 by Monday morning, should still be headed due west at that point.
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/storms/storm1_track.html
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:49 pmbill — #91… TPH… unbelievable. Maybe it has something to do with #146….
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:52 pmThoughts on the latest offshore oil spill (slick)?…. Please God, someone hide Ken Salazar’s boot.
Stuff happens. That’s life.
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:54 pmto add to #151 — just grateful and happy they found everyone!
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:55 pmasking HT for some insights and guidance on tomorrow’s action…
he thinkgs that after open (and whatever action goes with the Jobs number), then it will be a slow cash grind higher. Just like today.
Sounds about right to me. z?
September 2nd, 2010 at 1:59 pmNot to sound “Presidential,” or anything but… “tap, tap, tap… helloooooo…. is this thing on??” heh heh heh
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:01 pm153 – yeah, sounds right, actually hoping for a small miss to give us a dip entry on a few things. I got bagged on my HAL sales but better to miss some and make a little than get hit hard in out of the money calls. I plan to add that one back after the open.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:02 pmBOP – hold down the fort, gotta go round up a stray intern, back in 30 min.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:02 pm#143/145 – they can and do do that. Limit orders only, split the spread as close to intrinsic as possible. options mm’s will steal pennies from their grandmothers
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:07 pmGuess the ME platform fire is contained. Good.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:13 pmMarc Faber quote:
“Investing has a lot to do with common sense and personal observations. The man on the street frequently knows far more about the state of the economy than politicians, university professors and financial analysts who seldom travel, or if they do so, only from one first class hotel to another first class hotel and from one golf course to another. The pulse and vibrancy of an economy is, however, nowhere more visible than in a country’s entertainment venues such as bars, restaurants, nightclubs and shopping centres.
”
So that’s his excuse for constantly sampling the “nightlife” that he’s always talking about (causing much squeamishness by assorted TV bauble-heads)
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:18 pmSo what’s with the oil sheen seen near the burning platform? I thought they said no oil spill??
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:25 pmThanks ZMAN, 1520. Poor grandmothers.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:25 pmInteresting reaction in the service names to the platform fire today. Basically, a quick dip and back to the highs. I still like the HAL, sort of linking WFT in here as well.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:33 pmguess “no nothing” was a premature comment…
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:37 pmEnd of day uptick in the market is a bit more than I expected.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:48 pmNot a fan of the end-of-day uptick, going into the Job’s number… would rather do the opposite. Raises the bar for tomorrow.
That said, unless it’s a loss of like, 200k jobs, what do people expect? We all know employment sucks. But, stocks have rallied in the past, well before the economy has provided jobs growth.
thoughts?
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:50 pmOil sheen again reported but Gov. Jindal says production now shut.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:53 pmoil sheen will evaporate overnight… unless i miss my bet.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:54 pmSo far, no word yet from Ken Salazar’s boots??
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:55 pmAfter what we have seen from BP, it’s a tiny drop in a very big bucket. Just don’t go say that on TV. Salazar just about to step off the back nine I’d bet.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:59 pmInteresting day. Thought I’d pick up some ATPG, if the mrkt let me today or tomorrow. Mission Accomplished. My work for the week is done (i’m out tomorrow… so have a great Labor Day weekend, y’all!).
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:03 pm#122-Z, had to step out so did not respond immediately-I do not subscribe to the newsletter but did try it in Aug 09 and then cancelled w/i 30 days-he focuses on Canadian stks, mostly unknown, but I did not have the time to really dig down-as Dman noted, he also brings in third party “experts,” which were unknown to me as well-newsletter contains a lot of information but takes a lot of time to wade thru-I did not have the time at that time-I prefer your analysis (which also includes lessons on patience) and knowledgeable comments from those on the board.
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:32 pm#62 ATPG, inside “spinning top” candle close, testing short term resistance at $12 today, still looks good here, support at $11, resistance at $12, if it breaks out above $12 tomorrow, the 100 day SMA at $13 is the next near term target..
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:37 pmSorry stepped out for the day. I’m not up to date with the storage situation but the differentials are still bad.
http://www.psac.ca/firstenergy/
Can be used for daily AECO/Henry Hub spot closes and differentials. The differential tightended by 0.21 yesterday which is quite a large one day move. I guess it will be something to track.
You’ll also note that the WCS to Synthetic differential is 19$/bbl which is bigger than what was forecasted in my caution to those owning companies who have a large portion of heavy production. Pipeline apportionment was also worse than expected although now that the Enrbidge line is restarted, the light:heavy differential should begin to tighten rather than expand through Sept and Oct.
RE 96 – There is a Chinese rating agency that has US debt rated at AA with a negative outlook. “Dagong Credit Rating Agency”.
Moody’s and S&P are behind the ball anyways. Look at how they rated and currently rate California and the other states that are in trouble.
September 2nd, 2010 at 4:02 pmSD option exercise insider for $0. I have to say, given the performance, the insiders should hold off. You want shares, you buy them in the open market. That kind of guidance should come from the top down.
September 2nd, 2010 at 6:46 pmFWIW: AAII weekly count
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:06 pmBullish: 30.8%, up 10.1 points
Neutral: 27.0%, down 2.8 points
Bearish: 42.2%, down 7.3 points
A few technical thoughts on the macro picture…I posted two S&P charts…the S&P broke out and closed above the 50 day SMA today, so traders will be looking to 1079 as support if the mkt goes lower tomorrow on the report, but given the better than expected economic reports, so far this week, the macro picture has technically improved…, the S&P goes back on a P&F buy signal with the print of 1110, which is below the 200 day SMA currently at 1115, if the employment report is considered good, perhaps the 200 day is tested, the $NYMO at 25.30 is starting to get a bit more elevated than it has been recently, still no way overbought, but worth keeping a eye on now….
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:27 pmhttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280
JB – thanks much for that.
I've been working on some charts of my own to show ZLT performance, which is comprised of a bunch of my families accounts. Interesting.
September 2nd, 2010 at 8:33 pm